Welcome to the NFL Week 8 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Last week, our picks went 1-2, which brings our season record on released picks to 10-10-2.
NFL Week 8 Newsletter Table of Contents:
- I. Team Trends
- II. Totals Analysis
- III. Bye Weeks Stats and Trends
- IV. Baller System: Unders on Playoff Rematches
- V. Baller System: Road favorites off a loss as a home favorite
- VI. Baller System: Fade home favorites off a loss
- Write-ups and picks
Click here for NFL Week 8 Matchup Pages
I. NFL Week 8 Newsletter – Team Trends
These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:
- Titans: 2-8 ATS in L10 road games.
- Chargers: 1-10 O/U in L11 games as favorites
- Chargers: held opponents Team Total 0-6 O/U this season.
- Seahawks: 6-1 Team Total O/U this season.
- Panthers: 6-1 1H O/U this season.
- Texans: 6-1 1H ATS this season.
- Colts: 1-6 1H O/U this season.
- Bears: held opponents Team Total 0-6 O/U this season.
- Browns: 0-7 Team Total O/U this season.
- Giants: 1-6 O/U this season.
- Eagles: 2-10 O/U in L12 road games.
- Eagles: 1-5 1H ATS this season.
- Patriots: 1-11-2 ATS in L14 home games.
- Ravens: 6-1 O/U this season (4-0 O/U on the road).
- Dolphins: 0-6 Team Total O/U this season.
- Cowboys: 2-8 ATS in L10 games as underdogs.
Includes Thursday Night Football results:
- Vikings: 1-10 O/U as road favorites (including neutral field) since Dec 20, 2021.
- Vikings: 8-1-2 ATS as road favorites since Dec 20, 2021.
Not active this week:
- Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
- Bears: 7-0 ATS In L7 home games.
- Chargers: 1-7-1 ATS in L9 games as underdogs.
- Lions: 15-3 ATS in L18 road games.
- Dolphins: 0-7 ATS in L7 games as underdogs.
II. NFL Week 8 Newsletter – Totals Analysis
Totals go 9-6 to the under in Week 7, with an average of 45.4 points per game (on par with the season average of 45) and a median of 46. This brings the total O/U record to 53-52-2 for the season. Market totals have stayed constant for a few weeks now, hovering around the 44 mark. As of right now, average market totals for Week 8 is 44.2.
III. Bye Weeks Stats and Trends
Favorites going into a bye week did well ATS. They are 29-9 ATS since the beginning of the 2022 season. This has gone 4-1 ATS this season.. These teams play with confidence as they are headed in a much-needed break. This is active to play on the 49ers and Steelers in Week 8.
I also shared last week: teams going into a bye week are 67-41 ATS against a divisional opponent since the 2015 season. Another one that is not active, but is something we will monitor going forward.
IV. Baller System: Unders on Playoff Rematches
Teams facing each other in their first regular season matchup after their previous matchup was in the playoffs have typically gone under. Those games have gone 49-26-3 (65.3%) to the under since 2018. They are 33-14-3 (69.6%) to the under when these matchups occur early in the season in Week 10 or before.
I think the logic makes sense – these teams are quite familiar with each other after game planning for them on grand stage of the NFL Playoffs. In addition, one team will be out for revenge (especially early in the season) and expect their game plan on defense to be stronger, which will lend to a lower scoring game.
This trend has gone 4-2 to the under so far this season. Raiders/Bengals game is active in Week 9, although I put little stock into this since their playoff matchup was back in 2021.
V. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite
Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 49-21-4 ATS record. This system has gone 5-2 ATS this season (with the Vikings losing on Thursday). This is active on the Falcons in Week 8.
Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.
VI. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss
Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 156-105-3 ATS (59.8%).
By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.
This is active to fade the Texans and Dolphins in Week 8.
NFL Week 8 Newsletter – Breakdowns
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
As the Indianapolis Colts get ready to face the Houston Texans, situational factors strongly favor the Colts. The betting market seems to agree, with the spread moving to Colts +5 after opening at a higher line.
The Texans return home after a two-game road stretch, often a tough spot for teams, especially with a short week and a Thursday night matchup against the Jets on deck. This look-ahead factor may lead Houston to overlook Indianapolis, leaving an opening for the Colts to take advantage.
The Colts are motivated to make up for a disappointing Week 1 loss to the Texans, and they come into this matchup with a healthier roster (Jonathan Taylor, Anthony Richardson, Deforest Buckner) than they’ve had in weeks. With star receiver Nico Collins out for the Texans, the Colts’ defense could have an edge here as well.
Indianapolis has been consistent at covering the spread, going 5-1 ATS this season. The Colts’ situational edge, combined with Houston’s potential distractions, makes Indianapolis a strong play at +5. Expect a focused Colts team ready to take advantage of the circumstances.
Pick: Colts +5
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
This AFC West matchup has two of our strongest “under” systems active, and given both teams’ recent performances, it’s easy to see why. The undefeated Chiefs have leaned on their defense to keep their winning streak alive, despite dealing with numerous injuries. Their game plan likely involves a run-heavy approach featuring Kareem Hunt and Samaje Perine, while DeAndre Hopkins, a recent addition, may have limited impact after just joining the team.
On the other side, the Raiders’ offense has struggled significantly, ranking 29th in Offensive DVOA, indicating they’re one of the least efficient offensive units in the league. The Chiefs’ defense should be able to contain them effectively, making it unlikely that Las Vegas will put up many points.
Given these factors, the under at 41.5 looks appealing, as both teams seem positioned for a low-scoring contest.
Pick: Chiefs/Raiders Under 41.5
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers head into this game on short rest and significantly weakened by the loss of both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. With limited offensive options, Tampa Bay faces a difficult matchup against a Falcons team that’s eager to put last week’s disappointing home loss to the Seahawks behind them.
Historically, teams that suffer an unexpected loss at home as favorites often bounce back strong in their following game. The Falcons’ status as road favorites here suggests confidence from oddsmakers that Atlanta can deliver a solid rebound. Their determination is further fueled by Kirk Cousins’ incredible 500+ yard passing performance last month, setting a high bar for the offense to match. There’s an additional Baller System backing a favorite off a game with low turnovers – a potential sign they will protect the ball and put themselves in a better position to win.
Signs point to Atlanta covering the spread here, and we like them at -2.5.
Pick: Falcons -2.5