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Our Baller Exclusive NFL base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Model output will show after week 3.


Bills Situational Notes
Short rest: 3 days (TNF)

Baller Systems
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Dolphins Situational Notes
Short rest: 3 days (TNF)

Bills Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/24BUF
(12d rest)		BUF -3.5
JAX +3.5
49JAX
(9d rest)		---
9/12MIA
(4d rest)		BUF +2.5
MIA -2.5
49BUF
(4d rest)		---
9/8BUF [ 34 ]
(0d rest)		BUF -6.5
ARI +6.5
46ARI [ 28 ]
(0d rest)		+6-0.5+16

Dolphins Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/23SEA
(8d rest)		MIA -2.5
SEA +2.5
0MIA
(11d rest)		---
9/12MIA
(4d rest)		MIA -2.5
BUF +2.5
49BUF
(4d rest)		---
9/8MIA [ 20 ]
(0d rest)		MIA -3.5
JAX +3.5
50JAX [ 17 ]
(0d rest)		+3-0.5-13

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Yds. Rush Rec Plays Yds/Play Yds/Pt Int Fum
11/3/24
Week 9		BUF
(7d rest)		MIA +3
BUF -3
51MIA
(7d rest)		---MIA
BUF		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-

9/12/24
Week 2		MIA
(4d rest)		MIA -2.5
BUF +2.5
49BUF
(4d rest)		---MIA
BUF		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		0
3		0
1
1/7/24
Week 18		MIA [ 14 ]
(7d rest)		MIA +2.5
BUF -2.5
48BUF [ 21 ]
(7d rest)		-7-4.5-13MIA
BUF		281
487		108
128		173
359		48
77		5.9
6.3		20.1
13.4		2
2		0
1
10/1/23
Week 4		BUF [ 48 ]
(7d rest)		MIA +3
BUF -3
53MIA [ 20 ]
(7d rest)		-28-25+15MIA
BUF		424
424		142
104		282
320		58
58		7.3
7.3		21.2
8.8		0
1		4
0
1/15/23
Week 19		BUF [ 34 ]
(7d rest)		MIA +13.5
BUF -13.5
44MIA [ 31 ]
(7d rest)		-3+10.5+21MIA
BUF		262
459		42
107		220
352		0
0		INF
INF		8.5
7.7		2
2		0
4
12/17/22
Week 15		BUF [ 32 ]
(6d rest)		MIA +7
BUF -7
44.5MIA [ 29 ]
(6d rest)		-3+4+16.5MIA
BUF		422
454		188
150		234
304		0
0		INF
INF		14.6
13.2		0
0		1
2
9/25/22
Week 3		MIA [ 21 ]
(7d rest)		MIA +4.5
BUF -4.5
54BUF [ 19 ]
(6d rest)		+2+6.5-14MIA
BUF		212
515		41
115		186
400		39
90		5.4
5.7		10.1
11.2		0
0		0
4
10/31/21
Week 8		BUF [ 26 ]
(13d rest)		MIA +14
BUF -14
48.5MIA [ 11 ]
(7d rest)		-15-1-11.5MIA
BUF		262
351		68
102		205
249		64
66		4.1
5.3		23.8
10.1		0
1		2
1
9/19/21
Week 2		MIA [ 0 ]
(7d rest)		MIA +3.5
BUF -3.5
48BUF [ 35 ]
(7d rest)		-35-31.5-13MIA
BUF		216
322		71
143		182
179		70
64		3.1
5		INF
6.2		1
1		3
2


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Bills 1h11-7-06-3-00-0-03-2-02-1-03-1-03-1-0
Bills 12-68-10-03-21-22-23-1
Dolphins 1h12-5-07-2-01-0-03-0-01-3-02-1-02-0-0
Dolphins 12-68-10-13-01-32-12-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Bills 1h9-9-05-4-00-0-02-3-02-1-02-2-02-2-0
Bills 7-11-04-5-00-0-02-3-01-2-01-3-02-2-0
Dolphins 1h9-7-14-4-11-0-03-0-01-3-00-2-12-0-0
Dolphins 10-8-06-3-00-1-03-0-01-3-01-2-02-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Bills 1h8-10-06-3-00-0-01-4-01-2-02-2-03-1-0
Bills 7-11-04-5-00-0-02-3-01-2-02-2-02-2-0
Dolphins 1h10-5-25-3-10-1-02-1-03-0-13-0-02-0-0
Dolphins 9-9-04-5-00-1-02-1-03-1-01-2-01-1-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Bills 1h10-8-06-3-00-0-02-3-02-1-03-1-02-2-0
Bills 8-10-05-4-00-0-02-3-01-2-01-3-02-2-0
Dolphins 1h12-4-15-3-11-0-03-0-03-1-02-1-02-0-0
Dolphins 8-10-05-4-00-1-02-1-01-3-01-2-02-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Bills 1h10-7-15-3-10-0-03-2-01-2-02-2-02-1-1
Bills 9-9-04-5-00-0-03-2-01-2-02-2-02-2-0
Dolphins 1h10-7-06-3-00-1-00-3-04-0-03-0-00-2-0
Dolphins 6-12-02-7-00-1-00-3-04-0-01-2-00-2-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Dolphins0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-4-0 (20%)2-1-0 (66.7%)1-1-0 (50%)4-0-0 (100%)2-2-0 (50%)
Bills0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)1-1-0 (50%)4-3-0 (57.1%)2-2-0 (50%)0-4-0 (0%)