Vikings @ Bears [ Bears +3.5 / 39 ]

Divisional Matchup
Vikings | 8-2 (80%)
Bears | 4-6 (40%)

Our Baller Exclusive NFL base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

In this divisional matchup, Our model gives the Bears (+3.5) a 41.47% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over the total (39) around 48.4% of the time. While we factor in recent vs. season-long performance as well as home/away splits, we don't display those numbers here since the small sample can show some relatively large variance.

Vikings Situational Notes
Third consecutive road game

Bears Situational Notes
Lookahead: next game is on Thursday (short 3-day rest)
Lookahead: next game versus division rival

Baller Systems
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Vikings Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
12/1MINMIN -4
ARI +4
47ARI---
11/24CHIMIN -3.5
CHI +3.5
39MIN---
11/17TEN [ 13 ]MIN -6
TEN +6
40MIN [ 23 ]+10+4-4
11/10JAX [ 7 ]MIN -7
JAX +7
42.5MIN [ 12 ]+5-2-23.5
11/3MIN [ 21 ]MIN -6
IND +6
47IND [ 13 ]+8+2-13
10/24LAR [ 30 ]MIN -3
LAR +3
47.5MIN [ 20 ]-10-13+2.5
10/20MIN [ 29 ]MIN -1
DET +1
50DET [ 31 ]-2-3+10
10/6NYJ [ 17 ]MIN -2.5
NYJ +2.5
42MIN [ 23 ]+6+3.5-2
9/29GB [ 29 ]MIN +2.5
GB -2.5
44MIN [ 31 ]+2+4.5+16
9/22MIN [ 34 ]MIN +1
HOU -1
46.5HOU [ 7 ]+27+28-5.5
Bears Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
11/28DETCHI +10.5
DET -10.5
48.5CHI---
11/24CHICHI +3.5
MIN -3.5
39MIN---
11/17CHI [ 19 ]CHI +6
GB -6
41GB [ 20 ]-1+5-2
11/10CHI [ 3 ]CHI -6.5
NE +6.5
37.5NE [ 19 ]-16-22.5-15.5
11/3ARI [ 29 ]CHI +1.5
ARI -1.5
44.5CHI [ 9 ]-20-18.5-6.5
10/27WAS [ 18 ]CHI +1.5
WAS -1.5
46.5CHI [ 15 ]-3-1.5-13.5
10/13JAX [ 16 ]CHI +1.5
JAX -1.5
44.5CHI [ 35 ]+19+20.5+6.5
10/6CHI [ 36 ]CHI -4
CAR +4
40CAR [ 10 ]+26+22+6
9/29CHI [ 24 ]CHI -3.5
LAR +3.5
40.5LAR [ 18 ]+6+2.5+1.5
9/22IND [ 21 ]CHI +2.5
IND -2.5
43CHI [ 16 ]-5-2.5-6
Historical Matchups
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU MarginYdsRushRecPlaysYds/PlayYds/PtIntFum
12/16MINCHI -1
MIN +1
46CHI---CHI
MIN		-
-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-
11/24CHICHI +3.5
MIN -3.5
39MIN---CHI
MIN		-
-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-
11/27MIN [ 10 ]CHI +3
MIN -3
43.5CHI [ 12 ]+2+5-21.5CHI
MIN		335
258		118
73		217
185		73
52		4.6
5		27.9
33.5		4
0		3
2
10/15CHI [ 13 ]CHI +3
MIN -3
44.5MIN [ 19 ]-6-3-12.5CHI
MIN		303
227		162
46		141
181		67
58		4.5
3.9		23.3
15.9		0
2		2
3
1/8CHI [ 13 ]CHI +6.5
MIN -6.5
43MIN [ 29 ]-16-9.5-1CHI
MIN		265
482		118
141		147
341		50
74		5.3
6.5		20.4
9.1		1
2		0
2
10/9MIN [ 29 ]CHI +7.5
MIN -7.5
44CHI [ 22 ]-7+0.5+7CHI
MIN		286
436		78
117		208
319		50
76		5.7
5.7		13
9.9		1
0		3
1
1/9MIN [ 31 ]CHI +4
MIN -4
44.5CHI [ 17 ]-14-10+3.5CHI
MIN		415
354		90
104		325
250		83
48		5
7.4		24.4
13.4		0
2		0
1
12/20CHI [ 9 ]CHI +6.5
MIN -6.5
45.5MIN [ 17 ]-8-1.5-19.5CHI
MIN		400
219		115
132		285
87		72
62		5.6
3.5		44.4
23.5		1
0		4
1
12/20MIN [ 27 ]CHI +3
MIN -3
47CHI [ 33 ]+6+9+13CHI
MIN		401
429		199
158		202
271		68
68		5.9
6.3		12.2
14.9		1
1		0
1
11/16CHI [ 13 ]CHI +3.5
MIN -3.5
44MIN [ 19 ]-6-2.5-12CHI
MIN		165
391		41
99		124
292		52
72		3.2
5.4		12.7
8.7		1
1		3
2
12/29MIN [ 19 ]CHI -4.5
MIN +4.5
36CHI [ 21 ]+2-2.5+4CHI
MIN		365
300		158
174		207
126		79
51		4.6
5.9		17.4
19.2		2
0		2
1

Performance
Vikings
(10 games)		 Bears
(10 games)
0.8 (4)Win Percentage0.4 (21)
70 (6)ATS Win%60 (12)
30 (29)OU%30 (31)
24.4 (11)PPG19.4 (22)
17 (4)PPG Allowed18.7 (7)

Possession
Vikings
(10 games)		 Bears
(10 games)
56 (21)Plays/game58.1 (11)
56.9 (18)Plays/game Allowed54.5 (9)
31.4 (8)Time of Possession (min)30.74 (11)
28.6 (9)Time of Possession Allowed29.26 (12)
2.3 (19)Avg. Time/Drive (min)2.53 (7)
2.22 (9)Avg. Time/Drive Allowed2.24 (10)

Downs
Vikings
(10 games)		 Bears
(10 games)
20.6 (11)First Downs18.3 (21)
11.6 (26)Third Downs13.8 (3)
39.66 (13)Third Conv. Rate31.88 (31)
0.6 (30)Fourth Downs2.3 (2)
66.67 (7)Fourth Conv. Rate65.22 (10)

Yardage Overview
Vikings
(10 games)		 Bears
(10 games)
359.7 (11)Total Yds316.8 (23)
333.3 (12)Total Yds Allowed344 (14)
27.02 (17)Avg. Yds/Drive25.9 (23)
24.88 (8)Avg. Yds/Drive Allowed26.52 (11)
6.42 (12)Avg. Yds/Play5.45 (25)
5.86 (9)Avg. Yds/Play Allowed6.31 (17)
3.5 (4)Sacks/game2.5 (17)
2.9 (24)Sacks Allowed4.1 (31)

Rushing
Vikings
(10 games)		 Bears
(10 games)
116.4 (19)Rush Yds115.2 (22)
74.4 (1)Rush Yds Allowed130.3 (23)
3.97 (27)Yds/Carry4.14 (22)
3.58 (1)Yds/Carry Allowed4.79 (27)
49.8 (9)Run%46.1 (16)
36 (1)Run% Allowed48.6 (23)
1.2 (22)Fumbles0.8 (5)
1.1 (16)Fumbles Forced1.4 (8)

Receiving
Vikings
(10 games)		 Bears
(10 games)
243.3 (10)Rec Yds201.6 (26)
258.9 (29)Rec Yds Allowed213.7 (14)
8.25 (5)Yds/Pass6.2 (28)
7.02 (19)Yds/Pass Allowed7.42 (23)
50.2 (24)Pass%53.9 (17)
64 (32)Pass% Allowed51.4 (10)
1.6 (32)Int Thrown0.9 (22)
1 (9)Int Forced0.5 (25)


Straight Up Records (SU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Vikings 1h6-3-10-2-02-0-02-1-11-0-01-0-01-3-1
Vikings 8-21-12-03-11-01-03-2
Bears 1h4-6-02-2-01-0-00-0-00-4-00-0-01-3-0
Bears 4-63-10-10-00-40-00-4

Against the Spread Records (ATS)
TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Vikings 1h6-4-00-2-02-0-02-2-01-0-01-0-01-4-0
Vikings 7-3-01-1-02-0-02-2-01-0-01-0-02-3-0
Bears 1h4-6-02-2-01-0-00-0-00-4-00-0-01-3-0
Bears 6-4-03-1-01-0-00-0-01-3-00-0-01-3-0

Over/Under Records (OU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Vikings 1h4-6-01-1-00-2-01-3-01-0-00-1-02-3-0
Vikings 3-7-01-1-00-2-01-3-01-0-00-1-02-3-0
Bears 1h3-7-01-3-00-1-00-0-02-2-00-0-01-3-0
Bears 3-7-02-2-00-1-00-0-00-4-00-0-00-4-0

Team Total Records (TT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Vikings 1h7-3-00-2-02-0-03-1-01-0-01-0-02-3-0
Vikings 6-3-11-1-02-0-01-2-11-0-01-0-01-3-1
Bears 1h4-6-01-3-01-0-00-0-01-3-00-0-01-3-0
Bears 5-5-03-1-01-0-00-0-00-4-00-0-01-3-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFAD+Rest-Rest
Vikings 1h2-8-01-1-00-2-01-3-00-1-00-1-02-3-0
Vikings 3-7-01-1-00-2-01-3-01-0-00-1-02-3-0
Bears 1h4-6-02-2-00-1-00-0-02-2-00-0-02-2-0
Bears 2-8-01-3-00-1-00-0-01-3-00-0-02-2-0


ATS Range Records
TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Vikings0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)2-0-0 (100%)2-1-0 (66.7%)3-1-0 (75%)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)
Bears0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)2-1-0 (66.7%)1-2-0 (33.3%)3-1-0 (75%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)