Premium Content

This content requires a membership to view.

Get a preview of what you're missing below!

Sign Up / Log In
NBA WNBA NFL MLB
Updated: 12/10/25 7:26 p.m.
Thu, 12/11, 8:15 p.m.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Falcons: 4-9 (30.8%) - NFC South
Buccaneers: 7-6 (53.8%) - NFC South
Line: -4.5
Total: 44.5
Open: -5.5
Open: 43.5
Notes
Falcons
Situational Factor(s)
In-season revenge
Short rest: 3 days (TNF)
Buccaneers
Situational Factor(s)
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)
Short rest: 3 days (TNF)
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
Falcons
54.84% probability
Total Recommendation
No Play
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Buccaneers are 16.7% (1-5) against the spread at home
The Buccaneers are 20% (1-4) against the spread as a home fav
The Buccaneers are 83.3% (5-1) to the over/under at home
The Buccaneers are 80% (4-1) to the over/under as a home fav
The Buccaneers are 16.7% (1-5) (L14) against the spread at home
The Buccaneers are 20% (1-4) (L14) against the spread as a home fav
The Buccaneers are 83.3% (5-1) (L14) to the over/under at home
The Buccaneers are 80% (4-1) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav
The Falcons are 75% (3-1) against the spread as an away dog
The Falcons are 25% (1-3) to the over/under as an away dog
The Falcons are 75% (3-1) (L14) against the spread as an away dog
The Falcons are 25% (1-3) (L14) to the over/under as an away dog
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
09/07/25 2025 Buccaneers 23 Away Falcons 20 367 69 298 0 1 -1.5 47.5 -3 43
10/27/24 2024 Buccaneers 26 Home Falcons 31 432 102 330 0 2 +1.5 47.5 +5 57
10/03/24 2024 Buccaneers 30 Away Falcons 36 582 73 509 0 1 +2.5 44.0 +6 66
12/10/23 2023 Buccaneers 29 Away Falcons 25 443 96 347 0 4 +1.5 41.5 -4 54
10/22/23 2023 Buccaneers 13 Home Falcons 16 348 73 275 0 2 -3.0 37.5 +3 29
01/08/23 2022 Buccaneers 17 Away Falcons 30 398 174 224 0 1 +6.0 40.5 +13 47
10/09/22 2022 Buccaneers 21 Home Falcons 15 420 69 351 0 0 -10.0 46.0 -6 36
Buccaneers as Home (3 games) 20.0 - - 20.7 400 81 319 0.0 1.3 -3.8 43.7 +0.7 40.7
All Games Avg (7 games) 22.7 - - 24.7 427 94 333 0.0 1.6 -0.4 43.5 +2.0 47.4
Schedules
Falcons Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/29/25 2025 Falcons - home Rams - - - - - - +2.5 46.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Falcons - away Cardinals - - - - - - +1.5 45.5 - -
12/11/25 2025 Falcons - away Buccaneers - - - - - - +4.5 44.5 - -
12/07/25 2025 Falcons 9 home Seahawks 37 282 120 162 1 1 +7.0 44.5 +28 46
11/30/25 2025 Falcons 24 away Jets 27 401 167 234 0 1 -3.0 38.5 +3 51
11/23/25 2025 Falcons 24 away Saints 10 320 121 199 1 1 +2.0 40.5 -14 34
11/16/25 2025 Falcons 27 home Panthers 30 348 125 223 0 3 -4.0 42.0 +3 57
11/09/25 2025 Falcons 25 neutral Colts 31 317 140 177 1 1 +6.5 48.5 +6 56
11/02/25 2025 Falcons 23 away Patriots 24 292 71 221 1 1 +5.5 45.5 +1 47
10/26/25 2025 Falcons 10 home Dolphins 34 218 45 173 0 1 -7.0 44.5 +24 44
10/19/25 2025 Falcons 10 away Fortyniners 20 303 62 241 1 1 +0.5 46.5 +10 30
10/13/25 2025 Falcons 24 home Bills 14 460 210 250 2 0 +3.5 49.5 -10 38
09/28/25 2025 Falcons 34 home Commanders 27 441 128 313 1 2 -2.5 43.5 -7 61
Away Games Avg (4 games) 20.3 - - 20.3 329 105 224 0.8 1.0 +1.3 42.8 0.0 40.5
All Games Avg (10 games) 21.0 - - 25.4 338 119 219 0.8 1.2 +0.9 44.4 +4.4 46.4
Buccaneers Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/28/25 2025 Buccaneers - away Dolphins - - - - - - -1.0 48.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Buccaneers - away Panthers - - - - - - -1.5 45.5 - -
12/11/25 2025 Buccaneers - home Falcons - - - - - - -4.5 44.5 - -
12/07/25 2025 Buccaneers 20 home Saints 24 301 179 122 1 1 -7.5 41.5 +4 44
11/30/25 2025 Buccaneers 20 home Cardinals 17 289 95 194 1 1 -4.5 45.5 -3 37
11/23/25 2025 Buccaneers 7 away Rams 34 226 123 103 0 1 +6.5 49.5 +27 41
11/16/25 2025 Buccaneers 32 away Bills 44 375 202 173 2 1 +6.5 46.5 +12 76
11/09/25 2025 Buccaneers 23 home Patriots 28 386 113 273 1 0 -2.5 48.5 +5 51
10/26/25 2025 Buccaneers 23 away Saints 3 240 88 152 2 2 -3.5 46.0 -20 26
10/20/25 2025 Buccaneers 9 away Lions 24 269 41 228 1 2 +6.0 54.5 +15 33
10/12/25 2025 Buccaneers 30 home Fortyniners 19 360 104 256 2 1 -3.5 47.0 -11 49
10/05/25 2025 Buccaneers 38 away Seahawks 35 435 56 379 1 0 +3.5 44.5 -3 73
09/28/25 2025 Buccaneers 25 home Eagles 31 393 104 289 0 2 +3.5 44.5 +6 56
Home Games Avg (5 games) 23.6 - - 23.8 346 119 227 1.0 1.0 -2.9 45.4 +0.2 47.4
All Games Avg (10 games) 22.7 - - 25.9 327 111 217 1.1 1.1 +0.5 46.8 +3.2 48.6
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Sun, 12/14, 1:00 p.m.
Cleveland Browns @ Chicago Bears
Browns: 3-10 (23.1%) - AFC North
Bears: 9-4 (69.2%) - NFC North
Line: -7.5
Total: 39.0
Open: -7.5
Open: 40.0
Notes
Browns
Situational Factor(s)
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)
Bears
Situational Factor(s)
First game home off 2+ game road trip
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
Browns
54.06% probability
Total Recommendation
Under
57.50% probability
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Browns are 16.7% (1-5) against the spread away
The Browns are 20% (1-4) against the spread as an away dog
The Browns are 16.7% (1-5) (L14) against the spread away
The Browns are 20% (1-4) (L14) against the spread as an away dog
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/17/23 2023 Bears 17 Away Browns 20 408 29 379 2 1 +2.5 38.0 +3 37
All Games Avg (1 games) 17.0 - - 20.0 408 29 379 2.0 1.0 +2.5 38.0 +3.0 37.0
Schedules
Browns Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/28/25 2025 Browns - home Steelers - - - - - - +2.5 40.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Browns - home Bills - - - - - - +8.5 42.5 - -
12/14/25 2025 Browns - away Bears - - - - - - +7.5 39.0 - -
12/07/25 2025 Browns 29 home Titans 31 425 61 364 1 2 -4.0 33.5 +2 60
11/30/25 2025 Browns 8 home Fortyniners 26 287 138 149 0 4 +5.5 35.5 +18 34
11/23/25 2025 Browns 24 away Raiders 10 273 64 209 0 1 +3.5 36.0 -14 34
11/16/25 2025 Browns 16 home Ravens 23 221 106 115 2 1 +7.5 37.5 +7 39
11/09/25 2025 Browns 20 away Jets 27 325 158 167 1 0 -2.0 37.5 +7 47
10/26/25 2025 Browns 13 away Patriots 32 224 68 156 1 0 +7.0 40.5 +19 45
10/19/25 2025 Browns 31 home Dolphins 6 220 104 116 3 1 -2.5 34.5 -25 37
10/12/25 2025 Browns 9 away Steelers 23 286 65 221 0 0 +6.5 38.0 +14 32
10/05/25 2025 Browns 17 neutral Vikings 21 330 140 190 0 0 +3.5 35.5 +4 38
09/28/25 2025 Browns 10 away Lions 34 263 79 184 1 2 +10.0 44.5 +24 44
Away Games Avg (5 games) 15.2 - - 25.2 274 87 187 0.6 0.6 +5.0 39.3 +10.0 40.4
All Games Avg (10 games) 17.7 - - 23.3 285 98 187 0.9 1.1 +3.5 37.3 +5.6 41.0
Bears Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/28/25 2025 Bears - away Fortyniners - - - - - - +3.0 46.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Bears - home Packers - - - - - - +3.0 46.5 - -
12/14/25 2025 Bears - home Browns - - - - - - -7.5 39.0 - -
12/07/25 2025 Bears 21 away Packers 28 324 138 186 1 1 +6.5 44.5 +7 49
11/28/25 2025 Bears 24 away Eagles 15 435 281 154 1 0 +7.0 43.5 -9 39
11/23/25 2025 Bears 31 home Steelers 28 338 99 239 1 2 -2.5 45.5 -3 59
11/16/25 2025 Bears 19 away Vikings 17 333 140 193 2 1 +2.5 47.5 -2 36
11/09/25 2025 Bears 24 home Giants 20 391 171 220 0 0 -4.5 44.5 -4 44
11/02/25 2025 Bears 47 away Bengals 42 585 283 302 2 0 -3.0 51.5 -5 89
10/26/25 2025 Bears 16 away Ravens 30 381 96 285 0 1 +2.5 44.5 +14 46
10/19/25 2025 Bears 26 home Saints 14 394 222 172 3 2 -3.5 43.5 -12 40
10/13/25 2025 Bears 25 away Commanders 24 397 145 252 1 0 +5.5 49.0 -1 49
09/28/25 2025 Bears 25 away Raiders 24 281 69 212 3 2 +1.5 47.5 -1 49
Home Games Avg (3 games) 27.0 - - 20.7 374 164 210 1.3 1.3 -3.5 44.5 -6.3 47.7
All Games Avg (10 games) 25.8 - - 24.2 386 164 222 1.4 0.9 +1.2 46.2 -1.6 50.0
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Sun, 12/14, 1:00 p.m.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Ravens: 6-7 (46.2%) - AFC North
Bengals: 4-9 (30.8%) - AFC North
Line: +2.5
Total: 51.5
Open: +2.5
Open: 51.5
Notes
Ravens
Situational Factor(s)
In-season revenge
In-season revenge (2 TDs+)
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)
Baller System(s)
Back road favorite off a loss as a home favorite Historical ATS RecordL5 Years: 34 - 21 - 2 (61.8%)L365 Days: 6 - 6 - 0 (50.0%)Current Season: 3 - 6 - 0 (33.3%)
Bengals
Situational Factor(s)
First game home off 2+ game road trip
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
Ravens
56.41% probability
Total Recommendation
Under
55.00% probability
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Bengals are 83.3% (5-1) to the over/under at home
The Bengals are 75% (3-1) to the over/under as a home dog
The Bengals are 83.3% (5-1) (L14) to the over/under at home
The Bengals are 75% (3-1) (L14) to the over/under as a home dog
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
11/27/25 2025 Bengals 32 Away Ravens 14 369 123 246 0 4 +7.0 52.5 -18 46
11/07/24 2024 Bengals 34 Away Ravens 35 389 99 290 0 0 +6.0 53.0 +1 69
10/06/24 2024 Bengals 38 Home Ravens 41 463 71 392 0 0 +2.5 48.5 +3 79
11/16/23 2023 Bengals 20 Away Ravens 34 421 157 264 0 1 +4.0 46.0 +14 54
09/17/23 2023 Bengals 24 Home Ravens 27 288 66 222 0 0 -3.5 45.5 +3 51
01/15/23 2022 Bengals 24 Home Ravens 17 260 51 209 1 2 -7.5 40.0 -7 41
01/08/23 2022 Bengals 27 Home Ravens 16 270 55 215 2 1 -11.5 39.5 -11 43
10/09/22 2022 Bengals 17 Away Ravens 19 329 155 174 1 1 +3.5 47.5 +2 36
Bengals as Home (4 games) 28.3 - - 25.3 320 61 260 0.8 0.8 -5.0 43.4 -3.0 53.5
All Games Avg (8 games) 27.0 - - 25.4 349 97 252 0.5 1.1 +0.1 46.6 -1.6 52.4
Schedules
Ravens Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/29/25 2025 Ravens - away Packers - - - - - - 0.0 - - -
12/21/25 2025 Ravens - home Patriots - - - - - - -2.5 48.5 - -
12/14/25 2025 Ravens - away Bengals - - - - - - -2.5 51.5 - -
12/07/25 2025 Ravens 22 home Steelers 27 436 217 219 0 0 -5.5 43.5 +5 49
11/27/25 2025 Ravens 14 home Bengals 32 369 123 246 0 4 -7.0 52.5 +18 46
11/23/25 2025 Ravens 23 home Jets 10 251 98 153 1 1 -13.5 44.5 -13 33
11/16/25 2025 Ravens 23 away Browns 16 377 184 193 1 1 -7.5 37.5 -7 39
11/09/25 2025 Ravens 27 away Vikings 19 328 152 176 2 3 -4.5 48.5 -8 46
10/30/25 2025 Ravens 28 away Dolphins 6 354 150 204 1 0 -7.5 51.5 -22 34
10/26/25 2025 Ravens 30 home Bears 16 363 177 186 1 1 -2.5 44.5 -14 46
10/12/25 2025 Ravens 3 home Rams 17 319 179 140 0 3 +6.5 43.5 +14 20
10/05/25 2025 Ravens 10 home Texans 44 223 44 179 0 0 +2.5 41.5 +34 54
09/28/25 2025 Ravens 20 away Chiefs 37 365 166 199 0 1 -2.5 48.5 +17 57
Away Games Avg (4 games) 24.5 - - 19.5 356 163 193 1.0 1.3 -5.5 46.5 -5.0 44.0
All Games Avg (10 games) 20.0 - - 22.4 339 149 190 0.6 1.4 -4.2 45.6 +2.4 42.4
Bengals Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/29/25 2025 Bengals - home Cardinals - - - - - - 0.0 - - -
12/21/25 2025 Bengals - away Dolphins - - - - - - -1.5 50.5 - -
12/14/25 2025 Bengals - home Ravens - - - - - - +2.5 51.5 - -
12/07/25 2025 Bengals 34 away Bills 39 346 62 284 0 0 +6.0 54.5 +5 73
11/27/25 2025 Bengals 32 away Ravens 14 389 128 261 1 1 +7.0 52.5 -18 46
11/23/25 2025 Bengals 20 home Patriots 26 317 120 197 1 0 +7.0 51.5 +6 46
11/16/25 2025 Bengals 12 away Steelers 34 304 105 199 0 1 +5.5 47.5 +22 46
11/02/25 2025 Bengals 42 home Bears 47 516 46 470 0 1 +3.0 51.5 +5 89
10/26/25 2025 Bengals 38 home Jets 39 404 181 223 0 0 -5.5 43.5 +1 77
10/16/25 2025 Bengals 33 home Steelers 31 484 142 342 2 0 +5.5 45.0 -2 64
10/12/25 2025 Bengals 18 away Packers 27 274 55 219 1 0 +14.0 44.5 +9 45
10/05/25 2025 Bengals 24 home Lions 37 336 85 251 0 2 +10.0 49.5 +13 61
09/29/25 2025 Bengals 3 away Broncos 28 178 53 125 1 0 +7.5 44.5 +25 31
Home Games Avg (5 games) 31.4 - - 36.0 411 115 297 0.6 0.6 +4.0 48.2 +4.6 67.4
All Games Avg (10 games) 25.6 - - 32.2 355 98 257 0.6 0.5 +6.0 48.5 +6.6 57.8
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Sun, 12/14, 1:00 p.m.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Chargers: 9-4 (69.2%) - AFC West
Chiefs: 6-7 (46.2%) - AFC West
Line: -4.5
Total: 41.5
Open: -4.5
Open: 44.0
Notes
Chargers
Situational Factor(s)
Short rest: 4 or 5 days
Rest Disadvantage
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)
Coming off an Overtime game
Baller System(s)
Fade home favorites off a loss Historical ATS RecordL5 Years: 75 - 65 - 1 (53.6%)L365 Days: 12 - 18 - 0 (40.0%)Current Season: 9 - 12 - 0 (42.9%)
Chiefs
Situational Factor(s)
Rest Advantage
In-season revenge
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)
Baller System(s)
Back favorite off a game as a fav w/ low turnovers Historical ATS RecordL5 Years: 144 - 100 - 6 (59.0%)L365 Days: 25 - 19 - 0 (56.8%)Current Season: 18 - 16 - 0 (52.9%)
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
Chargers
54.84% probability
Total Recommendation
Under
55.00% probability
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Chiefs are 14.3% (1-6) to the over/under at home
The Chiefs are 27.3% (3-8) to the over/under as a fav
The Chiefs are 0% (0-5) to the over/under as a home fav
The Chiefs are 14.3% (1-6) (L14) to the over/under at home
The Chiefs are 27.3% (3-8) (L14) to the over/under as a fav
The Chiefs are 0% (0-5) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav
The Chargers are 20% (1-4) against the spread away
The Chargers are 20% (1-4) (L14) against the spread away
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/08/24 2024 Chiefs 19 Home Chargers 17 306 96 210 0 0 -4.5 43.0 -2 36
09/29/24 2024 Chiefs 17 Away Chargers 10 234 55 179 1 2 -6.5 42.0 -7 27
01/07/24 2023 Chiefs 13 Away Chargers 12 376 118 258 1 2 +3.0 35.5 -1 25
10/22/23 2023 Chiefs 31 Home Chargers 17 492 68 424 2 1 -5.5 48.0 -14 48
11/20/22 2022 Chiefs 30 Away Chargers 27 395 115 280 0 1 -5.5 52.5 -3 57
09/15/22 2022 Chiefs 27 Home Chargers 24 328 93 235 1 0 -4.0 52.5 -3 51
Chiefs as Home (3 games) 25.7 - - 19.3 375 86 290 1.0 0.3 -4.7 47.8 -6.3 45.0
All Games Avg (6 games) 22.8 - - 17.8 355 91 264 0.8 1.0 -3.8 45.6 -5.0 40.7
Schedules
Chargers Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/29/25 2025 Chargers - home Texans - - - - - - 0.0 - - -
12/21/25 2025 Chargers - away Cowboys - - - - - - +1.5 48.5 - -
12/14/25 2025 Chargers - away Chiefs - - - - - - +4.5 41.5 - -
12/08/25 2025 Chargers 22 home Eagles 19 308 169 139 4 3 +1.5 42.0 -3 41
11/30/25 2025 Chargers 31 home Raiders 14 352 192 160 1 0 -9.5 40.5 -17 45
11/16/25 2025 Chargers 6 away Jaguars 35 160 42 118 1 0 -3.0 43.5 +29 41
11/09/25 2025 Chargers 25 home Steelers 10 335 115 220 2 0 -3.0 45.5 -15 35
11/02/25 2025 Chargers 27 away Titans 20 381 131 250 0 1 -10.0 44.5 -7 47
10/23/25 2025 Chargers 37 home Vikings 10 434 207 227 1 0 -3.5 44.5 -27 47
10/19/25 2025 Chargers 24 home Colts 38 474 54 420 0 0 -2.5 49.0 +14 62
10/12/25 2025 Chargers 29 away Dolphins 27 404 140 264 3 2 -3.5 45.5 -2 56
10/05/25 2025 Chargers 10 home Commanders 27 365 155 210 0 1 -3.0 48.5 +17 37
09/28/25 2025 Chargers 18 away Giants 21 355 152 203 0 0 -6.0 42.5 +3 39
Away Games Avg (4 games) 20.0 - - 25.8 325 116 209 1.0 0.8 -5.6 44.0 +5.8 45.8
All Games Avg (10 games) 22.9 - - 22.1 357 136 221 1.2 0.7 -4.3 44.6 -0.8 45.0
Chiefs Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/25/25 2025 Chiefs - home Broncos - - - - - - -4.5 44.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Chiefs - away Titans - - - - - - -11.5 41.5 - -
12/14/25 2025 Chiefs - home Chargers - - - - - - -4.5 41.5 - -
12/07/25 2025 Chiefs 10 home Texans 20 286 126 160 0 0 -4.5 41.5 +10 30
11/27/25 2025 Chiefs 28 away Cowboys 31 380 119 261 1 1 -3.5 53.5 +3 59
11/23/25 2025 Chiefs 23 home Colts 20 500 148 352 0 1 -3.5 50.0 -3 43
11/16/25 2025 Chiefs 19 away Broncos 22 338 62 276 0 0 -4.0 44.5 +3 41
11/02/25 2025 Chiefs 21 away Bills 28 329 79 250 0 0 -2.5 53.0 +7 49
10/27/25 2025 Chiefs 28 home Commanders 7 447 148 299 2 2 -10.5 48.0 -21 35
10/19/25 2025 Chiefs 31 home Raiders 0 438 152 286 0 2 -13.5 44.5 -31 31
10/12/25 2025 Chiefs 30 home Lions 17 369 112 257 0 1 -2.5 51.5 -13 47
10/06/25 2025 Chiefs 28 away Jaguars 31 476 158 318 1 0 -3.5 45.5 +3 59
09/28/25 2025 Chiefs 37 home Ravens 20 388 118 270 1 0 +2.5 48.5 -17 57
Home Games Avg (6 games) 26.5 - - 14.0 405 134 271 0.5 1.0 -5.3 47.3 -12.5 40.5
All Games Avg (10 games) 25.5 - - 19.6 395 122 273 0.5 0.7 -4.6 48.1 -5.9 45.1
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Sun, 12/14, 1:00 p.m.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Philadelphia Eagles
Raiders: 2-11 (15.4%) - AFC West
Eagles: 8-5 (61.5%) - NFC East
Line: -12.0
Total: 38.0
Open: -12.5
Open: 39.5
Notes
Raiders
Situational Factor(s)
Rest Advantage
West Coast team traveling East
Eagles
Situational Factor(s)
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)
Short rest: 4 or 5 days
Rest Disadvantage
Coming off an Overtime game
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Baller System(s)
Unders system based on the market total being substantially lower than average scoring Historical ATS RecordL5 Years: 59 - 89 - 0 (39.9%)L365 Days: 18 - 22 - 0 (45.0%)Current Season: 10 - 14 - 0 (41.7%)
Back favorite off a game as a fav w/ low turnovers Historical ATS RecordL5 Years: 144 - 100 - 6 (59.0%)L365 Days: 25 - 19 - 0 (56.8%)Current Season: 18 - 16 - 0 (52.9%)
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
Raiders
58.75% probability
Total Recommendation
Under
57.50% probability
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
No notable trends identified for this matchup.
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)

No previous matchups between these teams in the last 3 seasons.

Schedules
Raiders Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/29/25 2025 Raiders - home Giants - - - - - - 0.0 - - -
12/21/25 2025 Raiders - away Texans - - - - - - +12.5 37.5 - -
12/14/25 2025 Raiders - away Eagles - - - - - - +12.0 38.0 - -
12/07/25 2025 Raiders 17 home Broncos 24 253 40 213 0 0 +8.5 40.5 +7 41
11/30/25 2025 Raiders 14 away Chargers 31 196 31 165 1 1 +9.5 40.5 +17 45
11/23/25 2025 Raiders 10 home Browns 24 345 60 285 1 2 -3.5 36.0 +14 34
11/17/25 2025 Raiders 16 home Cowboys 33 265 27 238 0 0 +3.5 48.5 +17 49
11/06/25 2025 Raiders 7 away Broncos 10 217 74 143 2 2 +9.5 42.5 +3 17
11/02/25 2025 Raiders 29 home Jaguars 30 341 57 284 1 0 +2.5 43.5 +1 59
10/19/25 2025 Raiders 0 away Chiefs 31 100 25 75 0 2 +13.5 44.5 +31 31
10/12/25 2025 Raiders 20 home Titans 10 242 68 174 1 0 -3.5 41.5 -10 30
10/05/25 2025 Raiders 6 away Colts 40 334 106 228 0 0 +7.5 46.5 +34 46
09/28/25 2025 Raiders 24 home Bears 25 357 240 117 1 1 -1.5 47.5 +1 49
Away Games Avg (4 games) 6.8 - - 28.0 212 59 153 0.8 1.3 +10.0 43.5 +21.3 34.8
All Games Avg (10 games) 14.3 - - 25.8 265 73 192 0.7 0.8 +4.6 43.2 +11.5 40.1
Eagles Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/28/25 2025 Eagles - away Bills - - - - - - +1.5 47.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Eagles - away Commanders - - - - - - -5.5 45.5 - -
12/14/25 2025 Eagles - home Raiders - - - - - - -12.0 38.0 - -
12/08/25 2025 Eagles 19 away Chargers 22 374 134 240 1 2 -1.5 42.0 +3 41
11/28/25 2025 Eagles 15 home Bears 24 317 87 230 1 2 -7.0 43.5 +9 39
11/23/25 2025 Eagles 21 away Cowboys 24 352 63 289 1 2 -3.0 47.5 +3 45
11/16/25 2025 Eagles 16 home Lions 9 283 148 135 1 2 -2.5 46.0 -7 25
11/10/25 2025 Eagles 10 away Packers 7 294 111 183 0 1 +1.0 45.0 -3 17
10/26/25 2025 Eagles 38 home Giants 20 455 276 179 0 0 -7.5 43.5 -18 58
10/19/25 2025 Eagles 28 away Vikings 22 371 45 326 2 0 -2.5 44.0 -6 50
10/09/25 2025 Eagles 17 away Giants 34 356 73 283 0 1 -7.5 40.5 +17 51
10/05/25 2025 Eagles 17 home Broncos 21 325 45 280 0 0 -4.0 44.5 +4 38
09/28/25 2025 Eagles 31 away Buccaneers 25 218 88 130 1 2 -3.5 44.5 -6 56
Home Games Avg (4 games) 21.5 - - 18.5 345 139 206 0.5 1.0 -5.3 44.4 -3.0 40.0
All Games Avg (10 games) 21.2 - - 20.8 335 107 228 0.7 1.2 -3.8 44.1 -0.4 42.0
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Sun, 12/14, 1:00 p.m.
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants
Commanders: 3-10 (23.1%) - NFC East
Giants: 2-11 (15.4%) - NFC East
Line: -2.5
Total: 47.0
Open: +2.0
Open: 47.5
Notes
Commanders
Situational Factor(s)
Rest Disadvantage
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Baller System(s)
Back divisional dog who won previous 2 head-to-head matchups Historical ATS RecordL5 Years: 42 - 21 - 1 (66.7%)L365 Days: 7 - 5 - 0 (58.3%)Current Season: 4 - 4 - 0 (50.0%)
Giants
Situational Factor(s)
Extended rest: Off a bye week
Rest Advantage
In-season revenge
In-season revenge (2 TDs+)
First game home off 2+ game road trip
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
Commanders
57.97% probability
Total Recommendation
No Play
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Commanders are 16.7% (1-5) against the spread away
The Commanders are 20% (2-8) against the spread as a dog
The Commanders are 16.7% (1-5) against the spread as an away dog
The Commanders are 16.7% (1-5) (L14) against the spread away
The Commanders are 20% (2-8) (L14) against the spread as a dog
The Commanders are 16.7% (1-5) (L14) against the spread as an away dog
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
09/07/25 2025 Giants 6 Away Commanders 21 453 220 233 0 0 +6.5 45.5 +15 27
11/03/24 2024 Giants 22 Home Commanders 27 338 164 174 0 1 +4.5 44.5 +5 49
09/15/24 2024 Giants 18 Away Commanders 21 441 215 226 0 0 +1.5 43.0 +3 39
11/19/23 2023 Giants 31 Away Commanders 19 430 174 256 0 4 +7.5 39.0 -12 50
10/22/23 2023 Giants 14 Home Commanders 7 385 106 279 1 3 +3.0 36.5 -7 21
12/18/22 2022 Giants 20 Away Commanders 12 408 159 249 0 4 +4.0 40.5 -8 32
12/04/22 2022 Giants 20 Home Commanders 20 334 134 200 0 2 +2.5 40.0 0 40
Giants as Home (3 games) 18.7 - - 18.0 352 135 218 0.3 2.0 +3.3 40.3 -0.7 36.7
All Games Avg (7 games) 18.7 - - 18.1 398 167 231 0.1 2.0 +4.2 41.3 -0.6 36.9
Schedules
Commanders Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/25/25 2025 Commanders - home Cowboys - - - - - - -5.5 48.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Commanders - home Eagles - - - - - - +5.5 45.5 - -
12/14/25 2025 Commanders - away Giants - - - - - - +2.5 47.0 - -
12/07/25 2025 Commanders 0 away Vikings 31 215 107 108 0 1 +1.5 43.5 +31 31
11/30/25 2025 Commanders 26 home Broncos 27 437 143 294 1 2 +6.0 43.5 +1 53
11/16/25 2025 Commanders 13 neutral Dolphins 16 385 172 213 0 1 +2.5 47.5 +3 29
11/09/25 2025 Commanders 22 home Lions 44 306 93 213 0 0 +8.5 49.5 +22 66
11/02/25 2025 Commanders 14 home Seahawks 38 310 157 153 1 1 +2.5 47.5 +24 52
10/27/25 2025 Commanders 7 away Chiefs 28 273 60 213 2 1 +10.5 48.0 +21 35
10/19/25 2025 Commanders 22 away Cowboys 44 355 136 219 0 1 +1.5 55.5 +22 66
10/13/25 2025 Commanders 24 home Bears 25 335 124 211 0 3 -5.5 49.0 +1 49
10/05/25 2025 Commanders 27 away Chargers 10 394 163 231 1 1 +3.0 48.5 -17 37
09/28/25 2025 Commanders 27 away Falcons 34 303 147 156 1 4 +2.5 43.5 +7 61
Away Games Avg (5 games) 16.6 - - 29.4 308 123 185 0.8 1.6 +3.8 47.8 +12.8 46.0
All Games Avg (10 games) 18.2 - - 29.7 331 130 201 0.6 1.5 +3.3 47.6 +11.5 47.9
Giants Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/29/25 2025 Giants - away Raiders - - - - - - 0.0 - - -
12/21/25 2025 Giants - home Vikings - - - - - - +1.5 43.5 - -
12/14/25 2025 Giants - home Commanders - - - - - - -2.5 47.0 - -
12/01/25 2025 Giants 15 away Patriots 33 250 111 139 0 1 +7.0 46.5 +18 48
11/23/25 2025 Giants 27 away Lions 34 521 122 399 1 1 +12.5 50.5 +7 61
11/16/25 2025 Giants 20 home Packers 27 343 142 201 0 1 +7.5 42.5 +7 47
11/09/25 2025 Giants 20 away Bears 24 456 169 287 0 1 +4.5 44.5 +4 44
11/02/25 2025 Giants 24 home Fortyniners 34 308 117 191 0 0 +2.5 47.5 +10 58
10/26/25 2025 Giants 20 away Eagles 38 261 68 193 0 0 +7.5 43.5 +18 58
10/19/25 2025 Giants 32 away Broncos 33 402 119 283 0 0 +8.0 40.5 +1 65
10/09/25 2025 Giants 34 home Eagles 17 367 172 195 1 0 +7.5 40.5 -17 51
10/05/25 2025 Giants 14 away Saints 26 338 136 202 0 3 +2.5 41.5 +12 40
09/28/25 2025 Giants 21 home Chargers 18 280 161 119 2 2 +6.0 42.5 -3 39
Home Games Avg (4 games) 24.8 - - 24.0 325 148 177 0.8 0.8 +5.9 43.3 -0.8 48.8
All Games Avg (10 games) 22.7 - - 28.4 353 132 221 0.4 0.9 +6.6 44.0 +5.7 51.1
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Sun, 12/14, 1:00 p.m.
New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Jets: 3-10 (23.1%) - AFC East
Jaguars: 9-4 (69.2%) - AFC South
Line: -13.5
Total: 41.5
Open: -8.5
Notes
Jets

Nothing active

Jaguars
Situational Factor(s)
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)
Baller System(s)
Unders system based on the market total being substantially lower than average scoring Historical ATS RecordL5 Years: 59 - 89 - 0 (39.9%)L365 Days: 18 - 22 - 0 (45.0%)Current Season: 10 - 14 - 0 (41.7%)
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
Jets
55.63% probability
Total Recommendation
Under
57.50% probability
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Jaguars are 83.3% (5-1) against the spread at home
The Jaguars are 83.3% (5-1) (L14) against the spread at home
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/15/24 2024 Jaguars 25 Home Jets 32 430 136 294 0 1 +3.5 41.5 +7 57
12/22/22 2022 Jaguars 19 Away Jets 3 248 66 182 0 2 +2.5 36.5 -16 22
Jaguars as Home (1 games) 25.0 - - 32.0 430 136 294 0.0 1.0 +3.5 41.5 +7.0 57.0
All Games Avg (2 games) 22.0 - - 17.5 339 101 238 0.0 1.5 +3.0 39.0 -4.5 39.5
Schedules
Jets Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/28/25 2025 Jets - home Patriots - - - - - - +1.5 41.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Jets - away Saints - - - - - - +3.5 40.5 - -
12/14/25 2025 Jets - away Jaguars - - - - - - +13.5 41.5 - -
12/07/25 2025 Jets 10 home Dolphins 34 234 65 169 0 3 +2.5 41.5 +24 44
11/30/25 2025 Jets 27 home Falcons 24 282 110 172 0 0 +3.0 38.5 -3 51
11/23/25 2025 Jets 10 away Ravens 23 300 78 222 0 1 +13.5 44.5 +13 33
11/13/25 2025 Jets 14 away Patriots 27 256 140 116 0 1 +12.5 43.5 +13 41
11/09/25 2025 Jets 27 home Browns 20 181 127 54 0 0 +2.0 37.5 -7 47
10/26/25 2025 Jets 39 away Bengals 38 502 254 248 0 0 +5.5 43.5 -1 77
10/19/25 2025 Jets 6 home Panthers 13 253 81 172 0 0 -1.5 39.5 +7 19
10/12/25 2025 Jets 11 neutral Broncos 13 137 92 45 0 1 +7.0 43.5 +2 24
10/05/25 2025 Jets 22 home Cowboys 37 427 144 283 0 1 -1.5 47.5 +15 59
09/29/25 2025 Jets 21 away Dolphins 27 423 197 226 0 3 +2.5 43.5 +6 48
Away Games Avg (4 games) 21.0 - - 28.8 370 167 203 0.0 1.3 +8.5 43.8 +7.8 49.8
All Games Avg (10 games) 18.7 - - 25.6 300 129 171 0.0 1.0 +4.6 42.3 +6.9 44.3
Jaguars Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/28/25 2025 Jaguars - away Colts - - - - - - +1.5 - - -
12/21/25 2025 Jaguars - away Broncos - - - - - - +2.5 43.5 - -
12/14/25 2025 Jaguars - home Jets - - - - - - -13.5 41.5 - -
12/07/25 2025 Jaguars 36 home Colts 19 350 103 247 2 2 +2.5 44.5 -17 55
11/30/25 2025 Jaguars 25 away Titans 3 299 70 229 0 0 -6.0 42.5 -22 28
11/23/25 2025 Jaguars 27 away Cardinals 24 390 134 256 0 1 -3.0 47.5 -3 51
11/16/25 2025 Jaguars 35 home Chargers 6 345 192 153 1 0 +3.0 43.5 -29 41
11/09/25 2025 Jaguars 29 away Texans 36 252 94 158 1 2 -1.5 37.5 +7 65
11/02/25 2025 Jaguars 30 away Raiders 29 371 151 220 1 1 -2.5 43.5 -1 59
10/19/25 2025 Jaguars 7 neutral Rams 35 390 94 296 0 1 +3.0 44.5 +28 42
10/12/25 2025 Jaguars 12 home Seahawks 20 317 59 258 0 1 +1.5 47.5 +8 32
10/06/25 2025 Jaguars 31 home Chiefs 28 330 109 221 1 1 +3.5 45.5 -3 59
09/28/25 2025 Jaguars 26 away Fortyniners 21 325 151 174 2 1 +3.5 45.5 -5 47
Home Games Avg (4 games) 28.5 - - 18.3 336 116 220 1.0 1.0 +2.6 45.3 -10.3 46.8
All Games Avg (10 games) 25.8 - - 22.1 337 116 221 0.8 1.0 +0.4 44.2 -3.7 47.9
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Sun, 12/14, 1:00 p.m.
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
Bills: 9-4 (69.2%) - AFC East
Patriots: 11-2 (84.6%) - AFC East
Line: +1.0
Total: 49.5
Open: -1.5
Open: 47.5
Notes
Bills
Situational Factor(s)
In-season revenge
Rest Disadvantage
Patriots
Situational Factor(s)
Extended rest: Off a bye week
Rest Advantage
Baller System(s)
Back divisional dog who won previous 2 head-to-head matchups Historical ATS RecordL5 Years: 42 - 21 - 1 (66.7%)L365 Days: 7 - 5 - 0 (58.3%)Current Season: 4 - 4 - 0 (50.0%)
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
Bills
53.28% probability
Total Recommendation
Under
55.00% probability
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Patriots are 75% (3-1) against the spread as a dog
The Patriots are 75% (3-1) (L14) against the spread as a dog
The Bills are 16.7% (1-5) to the over/under away
The Bills are 16.7% (1-5) to the over/under as an away fav
The Bills are 16.7% (1-5) (L14) to the over/under away
The Bills are 16.7% (1-5) (L14) to the over/under as an away fav
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
10/05/25 2025 Patriots 23 Away Bills 20 371 118 253 0 2 +7.5 48.5 -3 43
01/05/25 2024 Patriots 23 Home Bills 16 318 77 241 0 1 +3.0 36.5 -7 39
12/22/24 2024 Patriots 21 Away Bills 24 326 172 154 1 2 +14.0 48.0 +3 45
12/31/23 2023 Patriots 21 Away Bills 27 296 127 169 3 2 +15.5 40.0 +6 48
10/22/23 2023 Patriots 29 Home Bills 25 368 96 272 1 1 +7.5 41.5 -4 54
01/08/23 2022 Patriots 23 Away Bills 35 344 90 254 3 2 +13.5 44.0 +12 58
12/01/22 2022 Patriots 10 Home Bills 24 255 60 195 0 2 +3.5 44.0 +14 34
Patriots as Home (3 games) 20.7 - - 21.7 314 78 236 0.3 1.3 +4.7 40.7 +1.0 42.3
All Games Avg (7 games) 21.4 - - 24.4 325 106 220 1.1 1.7 +9.2 43.2 +3.0 45.9
Schedules
Bills Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/28/25 2025 Bills - home Eagles - - - - - - -1.5 47.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Bills - away Browns - - - - - - -8.5 42.5 - -
12/14/25 2025 Bills - away Patriots - - - - - - -1.0 49.5 - -
12/07/25 2025 Bills 39 home Bengals 34 434 183 251 2 2 -6.0 54.5 -5 73
11/30/25 2025 Bills 26 away Steelers 7 372 249 123 1 2 -3.0 44.5 -19 33
11/20/25 2025 Bills 19 away Texans 23 396 143 253 0 1 -4.5 44.0 +4 42
11/16/25 2025 Bills 44 home Buccaneers 32 414 97 317 1 2 -6.5 46.5 -12 76
11/09/25 2025 Bills 13 away Dolphins 30 393 87 306 2 2 -8.5 50.0 +17 43
11/02/25 2025 Bills 28 home Chiefs 21 414 141 273 1 0 +2.5 53.0 -7 49
10/26/25 2025 Bills 40 away Panthers 9 430 245 185 1 0 -7.0 47.5 -31 49
10/13/25 2025 Bills 14 away Falcons 24 314 134 180 0 2 -3.5 49.5 +10 38
10/05/25 2025 Bills 20 home Patriots 23 371 118 253 0 2 -7.5 48.5 +3 43
09/28/25 2025 Bills 31 home Saints 19 374 165 209 1 0 -14.5 48.5 -12 50
Away Games Avg (5 games) 22.4 - - 18.6 381 172 209 0.8 1.4 -5.3 47.1 -3.8 41.0
All Games Avg (10 games) 27.4 - - 22.2 391 156 235 0.9 1.3 -5.9 48.7 -5.2 49.6
Patriots Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/28/25 2025 Patriots - away Jets - - - - - - -1.5 41.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Patriots - away Ravens - - - - - - +2.5 48.5 - -
12/14/25 2025 Patriots - home Bills - - - - - - +1.0 49.5 - -
12/01/25 2025 Patriots 33 home Giants 15 401 119 282 0 0 -7.0 46.5 -18 48
11/23/25 2025 Patriots 26 away Bengals 20 401 107 294 1 0 -7.0 51.5 -6 46
11/13/25 2025 Patriots 27 home Jets 14 346 65 281 0 0 -12.5 43.5 -13 41
11/09/25 2025 Patriots 28 away Buccaneers 23 436 166 270 0 1 +2.5 48.5 -5 51
11/02/25 2025 Patriots 24 home Falcons 23 369 110 259 0 2 -5.5 45.5 -1 47
10/26/25 2025 Patriots 32 home Browns 13 459 177 282 2 2 -7.0 40.5 -19 45
10/19/25 2025 Patriots 31 away Titans 13 409 175 234 1 0 -6.5 41.5 -18 44
10/12/25 2025 Patriots 25 away Saints 19 334 73 261 0 2 -3.5 45.5 -6 44
10/05/25 2025 Patriots 23 away Bills 20 344 71 273 1 2 +7.5 48.5 -3 43
09/28/25 2025 Patriots 42 home Panthers 13 307 104 203 0 0 -5.5 42.5 -29 55
Home Games Avg (5 games) 31.6 - - 15.6 376 115 261 0.4 0.8 -7.5 43.7 -16.0 47.2
All Games Avg (10 games) 29.1 - - 17.3 381 117 264 0.5 0.9 -4.5 45.4 -11.8 46.4
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Sun, 12/14, 1:00 p.m.
Arizona Cardinals @ Houston Texans
Cardinals: 3-10 (23.1%) - NFC West
Texans: 8-5 (61.5%) - AFC South
Line: -10.0
Total: 42.0
Open: -6.5
Open: 42.5
Notes
Cardinals

Nothing active

Texans
Situational Factor(s)
First game home off 2+ game road trip
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
Cardinals
57.19% probability
Total Recommendation
Under
56.25% probability
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Texans are 23.1% (3-10) to the over/under
The Texans are 16.7% (1-5) to the over/under at home
The Texans are 16.7% (1-5) to the over/under as a fav
The Texans are 0% (0-4) to the over/under as a home fav
The Texans are 23.1% (3-10) (L14) to the over/under
The Texans are 16.7% (1-5) (L14) to the over/under at home
The Texans are 16.7% (1-5) (L14) to the over/under as a fav
The Texans are 0% (0-4) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav
The Cardinals are 83.3% (5-1) against the spread away
The Cardinals are 80% (4-1) against the spread as an away dog
The Cardinals are 83.3% (5-1) (L14) against the spread away
The Cardinals are 80% (4-1) (L14) against the spread as an away dog
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
11/19/23 2023 Texans 21 Home Cardinals 16 449 111 338 1 0 -5.5 48.0 -5 37
Texans as Home (1 games) 21.0 - - 16.0 449 111 338 1.0 0.0 -5.5 48.0 -5.0 37.0
All Games Avg (1 games) 21.0 - - 16.0 449 111 338 1.0 0.0 -5.5 48.0 -5.0 37.0
Schedules
Cardinals Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/29/25 2025 Cardinals - away Bengals - - - - - - 0.0 - - -
12/21/25 2025 Cardinals - home Falcons - - - - - - -1.5 45.5 - -
12/14/25 2025 Cardinals - away Texans - - - - - - +10.0 42.0 - -
12/07/25 2025 Cardinals 17 home Rams 45 322 51 271 0 0 +9.5 49.5 +28 62
11/30/25 2025 Cardinals 17 away Buccaneers 20 396 95 301 0 1 +4.5 45.5 +3 37
11/23/25 2025 Cardinals 24 home Jaguars 27 370 55 315 3 1 +3.0 47.5 +3 51
11/16/25 2025 Cardinals 22 home Fortyniners 41 488 36 452 0 1 +3.5 48.5 +19 63
11/09/25 2025 Cardinals 22 away Seahawks 44 387 129 258 1 2 +7.5 44.5 +22 66
11/03/25 2025 Cardinals 27 away Cowboys 17 380 119 261 1 1 +3.5 53.5 -10 44
10/19/25 2025 Cardinals 23 home Packers 27 373 94 279 0 1 +7.0 44.5 +4 50
10/12/25 2025 Cardinals 27 away Colts 31 408 88 320 1 0 +8.5 46.5 +4 58
10/05/25 2025 Cardinals 21 home Titans 22 388 168 220 1 3 -7.5 41.5 +1 43
09/25/25 2025 Cardinals 20 home Seahawks 23 289 89 200 0 0 +1.5 43.5 +3 43
Away Games Avg (4 games) 23.3 - - 28.0 393 108 285 0.8 1.0 +6.0 47.5 +4.8 51.3
All Games Avg (10 games) 22.0 - - 29.7 380 92 288 0.7 1.0 +4.1 46.5 +7.7 51.7
Texans Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/29/25 2025 Texans - away Chargers - - - - - - 0.0 - - -
12/21/25 2025 Texans - home Raiders - - - - - - -12.5 37.5 - -
12/14/25 2025 Texans - home Cardinals - - - - - - -10.0 42.0 - -
12/07/25 2025 Texans 20 away Chiefs 10 285 82 203 3 0 +4.5 41.5 -10 30
11/30/25 2025 Texans 20 away Colts 16 384 108 276 0 1 +3.0 44.5 -4 36
11/20/25 2025 Texans 23 home Bills 19 261 108 153 2 0 +4.5 44.0 -4 42
11/16/25 2025 Texans 16 away Titans 13 349 75 274 0 0 -5.5 37.5 -3 29
11/09/25 2025 Texans 36 home Jaguars 29 422 130 292 1 2 +1.5 37.5 -7 65
11/02/25 2025 Texans 15 home Broncos 18 293 77 216 1 0 -1.5 40.5 +3 33
10/26/25 2025 Texans 26 home Fortyniners 15 475 157 318 1 0 -3.0 41.5 -11 41
10/20/25 2025 Texans 19 away Seahawks 27 285 56 229 2 0 +3.0 41.5 +8 46
10/05/25 2025 Texans 44 away Ravens 10 434 167 267 3 0 -2.5 41.5 -34 54
09/28/25 2025 Texans 26 home Titans 0 362 129 233 1 0 -7.5 39.5 -26 26
Home Games Avg (5 games) 25.2 - - 16.2 363 120 242 1.2 0.4 -1.2 40.6 -9.0 41.4
All Games Avg (10 games) 24.5 - - 15.7 355 109 246 1.4 0.3 -0.4 41.0 -8.8 40.2
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Sun, 12/14, 4:25 p.m.
Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos
Packers: 9-3 (75.0%) - NFC North
Broncos: 11-2 (84.6%) - AFC West
Line: +2.0
Total: 42.5
Open: +1.5
Notes
Packers
Situational Factor(s)
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Broncos
Situational Factor(s)
First game home off 2+ game road trip
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
Packers
54.84% probability
Total Recommendation
Under
55.00% probability
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Broncos are 75% (3-1) against the spread as a dog
The Broncos are 0% (0-4) to the over/under as a dog
The Broncos are 75% (3-1) (L14) against the spread as a dog
The Broncos are 0% (0-4) (L14) to the over/under as a dog
The Packers are 20% (1-4) against the spread as an away fav
The Packers are 83.3% (5-1) to the over/under away
The Packers are 80% (4-1) to the over/under as an away fav
The Packers are 20% (1-4) (L14) against the spread as an away fav
The Packers are 83.3% (5-1) (L14) to the over/under away
The Packers are 80% (4-1) (L14) to the over/under as an away fav
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
10/22/23 2023 Broncos 19 Home Packers 17 339 145 194 1 0 -1.0 44.0 -2 36
Broncos as Home (1 games) 19.0 - - 17.0 339 145 194 1.0 0.0 -1.0 44.0 -2.0 36.0
All Games Avg (1 games) 19.0 - - 17.0 339 145 194 1.0 0.0 -1.0 44.0 -2.0 36.0
Schedules
Packers Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/29/25 2025 Packers - home Ravens - - - - - - 0.0 - - -
12/21/25 2025 Packers - away Bears - - - - - - -3.0 46.5 - -
12/14/25 2025 Packers - away Broncos - - - - - - -2.0 42.5 - -
12/07/25 2025 Packers 28 home Bears 21 351 117 234 1 0 -6.5 44.5 -7 49
11/27/25 2025 Packers 31 away Lions 24 359 125 234 0 2 +2.5 47.5 -7 55
11/23/25 2025 Packers 23 home Vikings 6 292 146 146 2 0 -6.5 41.5 -17 29
11/16/25 2025 Packers 27 away Giants 20 308 128 180 1 2 -7.5 42.5 -7 47
11/10/25 2025 Packers 7 home Eagles 10 280 104 176 0 3 -1.0 45.0 +3 17
11/02/25 2025 Packers 13 home Panthers 16 377 104 273 1 1 -12.5 43.5 +3 29
10/26/25 2025 Packers 35 away Steelers 25 454 94 360 0 2 -2.5 46.0 -10 60
10/19/25 2025 Packers 27 away Cardinals 23 273 94 179 0 2 -7.0 44.5 -4 50
10/12/25 2025 Packers 27 home Bengals 18 412 153 259 0 0 -14.0 44.5 -9 45
09/28/25 2025 Packers 40 away Cowboys 40 501 164 337 0 1 -6.5 47.0 0 80
Away Games Avg (5 games) 32.0 - - 26.4 379 121 258 0.2 1.8 -4.2 45.5 -5.6 58.4
All Games Avg (10 games) 25.8 - - 20.3 361 123 238 0.5 1.3 -6.2 44.7 -5.5 46.1
Broncos Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/25/25 2025 Broncos - away Chiefs - - - - - - +4.5 44.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Broncos - home Jaguars - - - - - - -2.5 43.5 - -
12/14/25 2025 Broncos - home Packers - - - - - - +2.0 42.5 - -
12/07/25 2025 Broncos 24 away Raiders 17 364 152 212 0 0 -8.5 40.5 -7 41
11/30/25 2025 Broncos 27 away Commanders 26 408 87 321 1 1 -6.0 43.5 -1 53
11/16/25 2025 Broncos 22 home Chiefs 19 354 59 295 1 1 +4.0 44.5 -3 41
11/06/25 2025 Broncos 10 home Raiders 7 234 84 150 1 0 -9.5 42.5 -3 17
11/02/25 2025 Broncos 18 away Texans 15 273 100 173 0 1 +1.5 40.5 -3 33
10/26/25 2025 Broncos 44 home Cowboys 24 426 179 247 2 0 -3.5 51.5 -20 68
10/19/25 2025 Broncos 33 home Giants 32 421 142 279 1 1 -8.0 40.5 -1 65
10/12/25 2025 Broncos 13 neutral Jets 11 252 78 174 0 2 -7.0 43.5 -2 24
10/05/25 2025 Broncos 21 away Eagles 17 372 130 242 0 0 +4.0 44.5 -4 38
09/29/25 2025 Broncos 28 home Bengals 3 512 186 326 0 0 -7.5 44.5 -25 31
Home Games Avg (5 games) 27.4 - - 17.0 389 130 259 1.0 0.4 -4.9 44.7 -10.4 44.4
All Games Avg (10 games) 24.0 - - 17.1 362 120 242 0.6 0.6 -4.1 43.6 -6.9 41.1
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Sun, 12/14, 4:25 p.m.
Tennessee Titans @ San Francisco Fortyniners
Titans: 2-11 (15.4%) - AFC South
Fortyniners: 9-4 (69.2%) - NFC West
Line: -13.0
Total: 44.5
Open: -12.5
Notes
Titans
Situational Factor(s)
Rest Disadvantage
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)
Fortyniners
Situational Factor(s)
Extended rest: Off a bye week
Rest Advantage
Baller System(s)
Fade an underdog who won their last game w/ more than 2 Rushing TD Historical ATS RecordL5 Years: 44 - 29 - 2 (60.3%)L365 Days: 7 - 4 - 0 (63.6%)Current Season: 5 - 3 - 0 (62.5%)
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
Titans
56.41% probability
Total Recommendation
Under
56.25% probability
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Fortyniners are 77.8% (7-2) against the spread as a fav
The Fortyniners are 25% (1-3) to the over/under as a home fav
The Fortyniners are 77.8% (7-2) (L14) against the spread as a fav
The Fortyniners are 25% (1-3) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)

No previous matchups between these teams in the last 3 seasons.

Schedules
Titans Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/28/25 2025 Titans - home Saints - - - - - - -3.5 42.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Titans - home Chiefs - - - - - - +11.5 41.5 - -
12/14/25 2025 Titans - away Fortyniners - - - - - - +13.0 44.5 - -
12/07/25 2025 Titans 31 away Browns 29 301 184 117 1 0 +4.0 33.5 -2 60
11/30/25 2025 Titans 3 home Jaguars 25 208 67 141 0 3 +6.0 42.5 +22 28
11/23/25 2025 Titans 24 home Seahawks 30 320 64 256 0 0 +13.0 40.5 +6 54
11/16/25 2025 Titans 13 home Texans 16 252 58 194 0 2 +5.5 37.5 +3 29
11/02/25 2025 Titans 20 home Chargers 27 233 88 145 1 2 +10.0 44.5 +7 47
10/26/25 2025 Titans 14 away Colts 38 372 113 259 0 0 +14.5 48.0 +24 52
10/19/25 2025 Titans 13 home Patriots 31 294 39 255 0 1 +6.5 41.5 +18 44
10/12/25 2025 Titans 10 away Raiders 20 287 65 222 1 2 +3.5 41.5 +10 30
10/05/25 2025 Titans 22 away Cardinals 21 343 78 265 0 1 +7.5 41.5 -1 43
09/28/25 2025 Titans 0 away Texans 26 190 82 108 0 0 +7.5 39.5 +26 26
Away Games Avg (5 games) 15.4 - - 26.8 299 104 194 0.4 0.6 +7.4 40.8 +11.4 42.2
All Games Avg (10 games) 15.0 - - 26.3 280 84 196 0.3 1.1 +7.8 41.1 +11.3 41.3
Fortyniners Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/28/25 2025 Fortyniners - home Bears - - - - - - -3.0 46.5 - -
12/22/25 2025 Fortyniners - away Colts - - - - - - -6.0 45.5 - -
12/14/25 2025 Fortyniners - home Titans - - - - - - -13.0 44.5 - -
11/30/25 2025 Fortyniners 26 away Browns 8 259 91 168 0 0 -5.5 35.5 -18 34
11/24/25 2025 Fortyniners 20 home Panthers 9 340 147 193 2 1 -7.0 49.5 -11 29
11/16/25 2025 Fortyniners 41 away Cardinals 22 295 95 200 2 0 -3.5 48.5 -19 63
11/09/25 2025 Fortyniners 26 home Rams 42 393 74 319 0 1 +5.5 49.5 +16 68
11/02/25 2025 Fortyniners 34 away Giants 24 394 159 235 0 1 -2.5 47.5 -10 58
10/26/25 2025 Fortyniners 15 away Texans 26 241 48 193 1 1 +3.0 41.5 +11 41
10/19/25 2025 Fortyniners 20 home Falcons 10 326 174 152 0 0 -0.5 46.5 -10 30
10/12/25 2025 Fortyniners 19 away Buccaneers 30 414 67 347 0 1 +3.5 47.0 +11 49
10/02/25 2025 Fortyniners 26 away Rams 23 416 74 342 0 0 +7.5 43.5 -3 49
09/28/25 2025 Fortyniners 21 home Jaguars 26 392 83 309 0 3 -3.5 45.5 +5 47
Home Games Avg (4 games) 21.8 - - 21.8 363 120 243 0.5 1.3 -1.4 47.8 0.0 43.5
All Games Avg (10 games) 24.8 - - 22.0 347 101 246 0.5 0.8 -0.3 45.5 -2.8 46.8
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Sun, 12/14, 4:25 p.m.
Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Rams
Lions: 8-5 (61.5%) - NFC North
Rams: 10-3 (76.9%) - NFC West
Line: -6.0
Total: 55.0
Open: -4.5
Open: 50.5
Notes
Lions
Situational Factor(s)
Extended rest: Non-bye week
Rest Advantage
East Coast team traveling West
Rams
Situational Factor(s)
Lookahead: next game is on Thursday (short 3-day rest)
Rest Disadvantage
First game home off 2+ game road trip
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
Lions
54.84% probability
Total Recommendation
Under
57.50% probability
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Rams are 75% (9-3) against the spread as a fav
The Rams are 16.7% (1-5) to the over/under at home
The Rams are 16.7% (1-5) to the over/under as a home fav
The Rams are 75% (9-3) (L14) against the spread as a fav
The Rams are 16.7% (1-5) (L14) to the over/under at home
The Rams are 16.7% (1-5) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav
The Lions are 25% (1-3) against the spread as a dog
The Lions are 25% (1-3) against the spread as an away dog
The Lions are 25% (1-3) to the over/under as a dog
The Lions are 25% (1-3) to the over/under as an away dog
The Lions are 25% (1-3) (L14) against the spread as a dog
The Lions are 25% (1-3) (L14) against the spread as an away dog
The Lions are 25% (1-3) (L14) to the over/under as a dog
The Lions are 25% (1-3) (L14) to the over/under as an away dog
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
09/08/24 2024 Rams 20 Away Lions 26 380 163 217 1 0 +5.5 53.5 +6 46
01/14/24 2023 Rams 23 Away Lions 24 356 79 277 0 1 +3.0 52.5 +1 47
All Games Avg (2 games) 21.5 - - 25.0 368 121 247 0.5 0.5 +4.3 53.0 +3.5 46.5
Schedules
Lions Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/25/25 2025 Lions - away Vikings - - - - - - -2.5 47.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Lions - home Steelers - - - - - - -6.5 49.5 - -
12/14/25 2025 Lions - away Rams - - - - - - +6.0 55.0 - -
12/04/25 2025 Lions 44 home Cowboys 30 418 109 309 2 0 -3.5 55.5 -14 74
11/27/25 2025 Lions 24 home Packers 31 375 119 256 0 1 -2.5 47.5 +7 55
11/23/25 2025 Lions 34 home Giants 27 516 237 279 1 0 -12.5 50.5 -7 61
11/16/25 2025 Lions 9 away Eagles 16 329 74 255 0 0 +2.5 46.0 +7 25
11/09/25 2025 Lions 44 away Commanders 22 546 226 320 0 0 -8.5 49.5 -22 66
11/02/25 2025 Lions 24 home Vikings 27 349 65 284 1 1 -9.5 47.5 +3 51
10/20/25 2025 Lions 24 home Buccaneers 9 405 164 241 1 1 -6.0 54.5 -15 33
10/12/25 2025 Lions 17 away Chiefs 30 301 98 203 0 1 +2.5 51.5 +13 47
10/05/25 2025 Lions 37 away Bengals 24 379 118 261 3 1 -10.0 49.5 -13 61
09/28/25 2025 Lions 34 home Browns 10 277 109 168 2 0 -10.0 44.5 -24 44
Away Games Avg (4 games) 26.8 - - 23.0 389 129 260 0.8 0.5 -3.4 49.1 -3.8 49.8
All Games Avg (10 games) 29.1 - - 22.6 390 132 258 1.0 0.5 -5.8 49.7 -6.5 51.7
Rams Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/29/25 2025 Rams - away Falcons - - - - - - -2.5 46.5 - -
12/18/25 2025 Rams - away Seahawks - - - - - - +1.0 46.5 - -
12/14/25 2025 Rams - home Lions - - - - - - -6.0 55.0 - -
12/07/25 2025 Rams 45 away Cardinals 17 530 249 281 1 0 -9.5 49.5 -28 62
11/30/25 2025 Rams 28 away Panthers 31 395 152 243 0 1 -10.0 44.5 +3 59
11/23/25 2025 Rams 34 home Buccaneers 7 343 70 273 2 0 -6.5 49.5 -27 41
11/16/25 2025 Rams 21 home Seahawks 19 249 119 130 4 1 -3.0 49.5 -2 40
11/09/25 2025 Rams 42 away Fortyniners 26 406 126 280 1 0 -5.5 49.5 -16 68
11/02/25 2025 Rams 34 home Saints 10 452 171 281 1 0 -14.0 44.5 -24 44
10/19/25 2025 Rams 35 neutral Jaguars 7 271 89 182 0 0 -3.0 44.5 -28 42
10/12/25 2025 Rams 17 away Ravens 3 255 74 181 1 2 -6.5 43.5 -14 20
10/02/25 2025 Rams 23 home Fortyniners 26 467 78 389 0 2 -7.5 43.5 +3 49
09/28/25 2025 Rams 27 home Colts 20 477 102 375 2 1 -3.5 49.5 -7 47
Home Games Avg (5 games) 27.8 - - 16.4 398 108 290 1.8 0.8 -6.9 47.3 -11.4 44.2
All Games Avg (10 games) 30.6 - - 16.6 385 123 262 1.2 0.7 -6.9 46.8 -14.0 47.2
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Sun, 12/14, 4:25 p.m.
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
Panthers: 7-6 (53.8%) - NFC South
Saints: 3-10 (23.1%) - NFC South
Line: +2.5
Total: 40.5
Open: +2.5
Open: 38.5
Notes
Panthers
Situational Factor(s)
Extended rest: Off a bye week
Rest Advantage
In-season revenge
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Baller System(s)
Fade an underdog who won their last game w/ more than 2 Rushing TD Historical ATS RecordL5 Years: 44 - 29 - 2 (60.3%)L365 Days: 7 - 4 - 0 (63.6%)Current Season: 5 - 3 - 0 (62.5%)
Saints
Situational Factor(s)
Rest Disadvantage
First game home off 2+ game road trip
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
Panthers
54.84% probability
Total Recommendation
Over
53.75% probability
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Saints are 16.7% (1-5) against the spread at home
The Saints are 0% (0-4) against the spread as a home dog
The Saints are 16.7% (1-5) to the over/under at home
The Saints are 25% (1-3) to the over/under as a home dog
The Saints are 16.7% (1-5) (L14) against the spread at home
The Saints are 0% (0-4) (L14) against the spread as a home dog
The Saints are 16.7% (1-5) (L14) to the over/under at home
The Saints are 25% (1-3) (L14) to the over/under as a home dog
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
11/09/25 2025 Saints 17 Away Panthers 7 197 73 124 0 1 +5.5 37.5 -10 24
11/03/24 2024 Saints 22 Away Panthers 23 251 80 171 0 0 -7.0 43.0 +1 45
09/08/24 2024 Saints 47 Home Panthers 10 380 180 200 2 1 -3.5 41.5 -37 57
12/10/23 2023 Saints 28 Home Panthers 6 216 97 119 0 0 -5.5 39.5 -22 34
09/18/23 2023 Saints 20 Away Panthers 17 253 100 153 1 1 -3.0 39.5 -3 37
01/08/23 2022 Saints 7 Home Panthers 10 314 143 171 2 1 -3.5 41.5 +3 17
09/25/22 2022 Saints 14 Away Panthers 22 315 145 170 2 0 -2.0 41.0 +8 36
Saints as Home (3 games) 27.3 - - 8.7 303 140 163 1.3 0.7 -4.2 40.8 -18.7 36.0
All Games Avg (7 games) 22.1 - - 13.6 275 117 158 1.0 0.6 -2.7 40.5 -8.6 35.7
Schedules
Panthers Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/29/25 2025 Panthers - home Seahawks - - - - - - 0.0 - - -
12/21/25 2025 Panthers - home Buccaneers - - - - - - +1.5 45.5 - -
12/14/25 2025 Panthers - away Saints - - - - - - -2.5 40.5 - -
11/30/25 2025 Panthers 31 home Rams 28 370 164 206 2 0 +10.0 44.5 -3 59
11/24/25 2025 Panthers 9 away Fortyniners 20 238 69 169 3 1 +7.0 49.5 +11 29
11/16/25 2025 Panthers 30 away Falcons 27 515 67 448 0 0 +4.0 42.0 -3 57
11/09/25 2025 Panthers 7 home Saints 17 197 73 124 0 1 -5.5 37.5 +10 24
11/02/25 2025 Panthers 16 away Packers 13 265 163 102 1 1 +12.5 43.5 -3 29
10/26/25 2025 Panthers 9 home Bills 40 289 114 175 0 3 +7.0 47.5 +31 49
10/19/25 2025 Panthers 13 away Jets 6 323 125 198 2 1 +1.5 39.5 -7 19
10/12/25 2025 Panthers 30 home Cowboys 27 415 216 199 0 2 +3.0 47.0 -3 57
10/05/25 2025 Panthers 27 home Dolphins 24 437 239 198 0 1 +1.5 44.5 -3 51
09/28/25 2025 Panthers 13 away Patriots 42 337 129 208 0 1 +5.5 42.5 +29 55
Away Games Avg (5 games) 16.2 - - 21.6 336 111 225 1.2 0.8 +6.1 43.4 +5.4 37.8
All Games Avg (10 games) 18.5 - - 24.4 339 136 203 0.8 1.1 +4.7 43.8 +5.9 42.9
Saints Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/28/25 2025 Saints - away Titans - - - - - - +3.5 42.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Saints - home Jets - - - - - - -3.5 40.5 - -
12/14/25 2025 Saints - home Panthers - - - - - - +2.5 40.5 - -
12/07/25 2025 Saints 24 away Buccaneers 20 283 139 144 1 1 +7.5 41.5 -4 44
11/30/25 2025 Saints 17 away Dolphins 21 320 81 239 1 1 +5.5 41.5 +4 38
11/23/25 2025 Saints 10 home Falcons 24 322 79 243 1 2 -2.0 40.5 +14 34
11/09/25 2025 Saints 17 away Panthers 7 404 122 282 1 1 +5.5 37.5 -10 24
11/02/25 2025 Saints 10 away Rams 34 233 57 176 0 1 +14.0 44.5 +24 44
10/26/25 2025 Saints 3 home Buccaneers 23 312 48 264 0 2 +3.5 46.0 +20 26
10/19/25 2025 Saints 14 away Bears 26 277 44 233 1 1 +3.5 43.5 +12 40
10/12/25 2025 Saints 19 home Patriots 25 300 73 227 0 1 +3.5 45.5 +6 44
10/05/25 2025 Saints 26 home Giants 14 332 88 244 2 0 -2.5 41.5 -12 40
09/28/25 2025 Saints 19 away Bills 31 315 189 126 1 1 +14.5 48.5 +12 50
Home Games Avg (4 games) 14.5 - - 21.5 317 72 245 0.8 1.3 +0.6 43.4 +7.0 36.0
All Games Avg (10 games) 15.9 - - 22.5 310 92 218 0.8 1.1 +5.3 43.1 +6.6 38.4
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Sun, 12/14, 4:25 p.m.
Indianapolis Colts @ Seattle Seahawks
Colts: 8-5 (61.5%) - AFC South
Seahawks: 10-3 (76.9%) - NFC West
Line: -14.0
Total: 42.5
Open: -3.5
Open: 46.0
Notes
Colts
Situational Factor(s)
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)
East Coast team traveling West
Baller System(s)
Unders system: based on team with consecutive road games and a higher than average total Historical ATS RecordL5 Years: 80 - 113 - 4 (41.5%)L365 Days: 20 - 19 - 1 (51.3%)Current Season: 12 - 14 - 1 (46.2%)
Seahawks
Situational Factor(s)
Lookahead: next game is on Thursday (short 3-day rest)
Lookahead: next game versus division rival
Baller System(s)
Unders system: back an under when a favorite is a bigger favorite than their previous game and their total is lower Historical ATS RecordL5 Years: 72 - 79 - 2 (47.7%)L365 Days: 14 - 13 - 0 (51.9%)Current Season: 11 - 10 - 0 (52.4%)
Unders system based on the market total being substantially lower than average scoring Historical ATS RecordL5 Years: 59 - 89 - 0 (39.9%)L365 Days: 18 - 22 - 0 (45.0%)Current Season: 10 - 14 - 0 (41.7%)
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
Colts
54.06% probability
Total Recommendation
Under
55.00% probability
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Seahawks are 76.9% (10-3) against the spread
The Seahawks are 80% (8-2) against the spread as a fav
The Seahawks are 80% (4-1) against the spread as a home fav
The Seahawks are 70% (7-3) to the over/under as a fav
The Seahawks are 80% (4-1) to the over/under as a home fav
The Seahawks are 76.9% (10-3) (L14) against the spread
The Seahawks are 80% (8-2) (L14) against the spread as a fav
The Seahawks are 80% (4-1) (L14) against the spread as a home fav
The Seahawks are 70% (7-3) (L14) to the over/under as a fav
The Seahawks are 80% (4-1) (L14) to the over/under as a home fav
The Colts are 75% (3-1) against the spread as a dog
The Colts are 75% (3-1) (L14) against the spread as a dog
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)

No previous matchups between these teams in the last 3 seasons.

Schedules
Colts Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/28/25 2025 Colts - home Jaguars - - - - - - -1.5 - - -
12/22/25 2025 Colts - home Fortyniners - - - - - - +6.0 45.5 - -
12/14/25 2025 Colts - away Seahawks - - - - - - +14.0 42.5 - -
12/07/25 2025 Colts 19 away Jaguars 36 294 89 205 0 1 -2.5 44.5 +17 55
11/30/25 2025 Colts 16 home Texans 20 287 86 201 1 2 -3.0 44.5 +4 36
11/23/25 2025 Colts 20 away Chiefs 23 255 74 181 1 0 +3.5 50.0 +3 43
11/09/25 2025 Colts 31 neutral Falcons 25 578 323 255 0 4 -6.5 48.5 -6 56
11/02/25 2025 Colts 20 away Steelers 27 397 55 342 0 4 -3.0 51.5 +7 47
10/26/25 2025 Colts 38 home Titans 14 436 164 272 1 0 -14.5 48.0 -24 52
10/19/25 2025 Colts 38 away Chargers 24 408 120 288 2 1 +2.5 49.0 -14 62
10/12/25 2025 Colts 31 home Cardinals 27 362 150 212 1 0 -8.5 46.5 -4 58
10/05/25 2025 Colts 40 home Raiders 6 317 96 221 2 1 -7.5 46.5 -34 46
09/28/25 2025 Colts 20 away Rams 27 347 85 262 0 2 +3.5 49.5 +7 47
Away Games Avg (5 games) 23.4 - - 27.4 340 85 256 0.6 1.6 +0.8 48.9 +4.0 50.8
All Games Avg (10 games) 27.3 - - 22.9 368 124 244 0.8 1.5 -3.6 47.9 -4.4 50.2
Seahawks Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/29/25 2025 Seahawks - away Panthers - - - - - - 0.0 - - -
12/18/25 2025 Seahawks - home Rams - - - - - - -1.0 46.5 - -
12/14/25 2025 Seahawks - home Colts - - - - - - -14.0 42.5 - -
12/07/25 2025 Seahawks 37 away Falcons 9 378 129 249 2 2 -7.0 44.5 -28 46
11/30/25 2025 Seahawks 26 home Vikings 0 253 125 128 4 3 -12.5 42.5 -26 26
11/23/25 2025 Seahawks 30 away Titans 24 358 114 244 0 0 -13.0 40.5 -6 54
11/16/25 2025 Seahawks 19 away Rams 21 414 135 279 0 1 +3.0 49.5 +2 40
11/09/25 2025 Seahawks 44 home Cardinals 22 376 198 178 0 4 -7.5 44.5 -22 66
11/02/25 2025 Seahawks 38 away Commanders 14 418 88 330 1 1 -2.5 47.5 -24 52
10/20/25 2025 Seahawks 27 home Texans 19 331 118 213 1 2 -3.0 41.5 -8 46
10/12/25 2025 Seahawks 20 away Jaguars 12 355 60 295 0 0 -1.5 47.5 -8 32
10/05/25 2025 Seahawks 35 home Buccaneers 38 463 122 341 0 1 -3.5 44.5 +3 73
09/25/25 2025 Seahawks 23 away Cardinals 20 397 155 242 2 2 -1.5 43.5 -3 43
Home Games Avg (4 games) 33.0 - - 19.8 356 141 215 1.3 2.5 -6.6 43.3 -13.3 52.8
All Games Avg (10 games) 29.9 - - 17.9 374 124 250 1.0 1.6 -4.9 44.6 -12.0 47.8
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Sun, 12/14, 8:20 p.m.
Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys
Vikings: 5-8 (38.5%) - NFC North
Cowboys: 6-6 (50.0%) - NFC East
Line: -5.5
Total: 47.5
Open: -7.0
Open: 47.0
Notes
Vikings
Situational Factor(s)
Rest Disadvantage
Baller System(s)
Fade home favorites off a loss Historical ATS RecordL5 Years: 75 - 65 - 1 (53.6%)L365 Days: 12 - 18 - 0 (40.0%)Current Season: 9 - 12 - 0 (42.9%)
Cowboys
Situational Factor(s)
Extended rest: Non-bye week
Rest Advantage
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
Vikings
54.06% probability
Total Recommendation
Under
54.38% probability
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
The Vikings are 28.6% (2-5) against the spread as a dog
The Vikings are 28.6% (2-5) (L14) against the spread as a dog
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
11/20/22 2022 Cowboys 40 Away Vikings 3 232 73 159 0 2 -2.0 48.5 -37 43
All Games Avg (1 games) 40.0 - - 3.0 232 73 159 0.0 2.0 -2.0 48.5 -37.0 43.0
Schedules
Vikings Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/25/25 2025 Vikings - home Lions - - - - - - +2.5 47.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Vikings - away Giants - - - - - - -1.5 43.5 - -
12/14/25 2025 Vikings - away Cowboys - - - - - - +5.5 47.5 - -
12/07/25 2025 Vikings 31 home Commanders 0 325 162 163 2 0 -1.5 43.5 -31 31
11/30/25 2025 Vikings 0 away Seahawks 26 192 66 126 0 2 +12.5 42.5 +26 26
11/23/25 2025 Vikings 6 away Packers 23 180 93 87 0 2 +6.5 41.5 +17 29
11/16/25 2025 Vikings 17 home Bears 19 265 115 150 0 1 -2.5 47.5 +2 36
11/09/25 2025 Vikings 19 home Ravens 27 368 120 248 0 2 +4.5 48.5 +8 46
11/02/25 2025 Vikings 27 away Lions 24 285 142 143 0 1 +9.5 47.5 -3 51
10/23/25 2025 Vikings 10 away Chargers 37 191 34 157 1 1 +3.5 44.5 +27 47
10/19/25 2025 Vikings 22 home Eagles 28 402 89 313 0 2 +2.5 44.0 +6 50
10/05/25 2025 Vikings 21 neutral Browns 17 365 97 268 0 2 -3.5 35.5 -4 38
09/28/25 2025 Vikings 21 neutral Steelers 24 420 70 350 0 2 -2.5 41.0 +3 45
Away Games Avg (4 games) 10.8 - - 27.5 212 84 128 0.3 1.5 +8.0 44.0 +16.8 38.3
All Games Avg (10 games) 17.4 - - 22.5 299 99 201 0.3 1.5 +2.9 43.6 +5.1 39.9
Cowboys Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/25/25 2025 Cowboys - away Commanders - - - - - - +5.5 48.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Cowboys - home Chargers - - - - - - -1.5 48.5 - -
12/14/25 2025 Cowboys - home Vikings - - - - - - -5.5 47.5 - -
12/04/25 2025 Cowboys 30 away Lions 44 467 91 376 0 3 +3.5 55.5 +14 74
11/27/25 2025 Cowboys 31 home Chiefs 28 457 137 320 0 1 +3.5 53.5 -3 59
11/23/25 2025 Cowboys 24 home Eagles 21 479 125 354 0 2 +3.0 47.5 -3 45
11/17/25 2025 Cowboys 33 away Raiders 16 382 114 268 1 1 -3.5 48.5 -17 49
11/03/25 2025 Cowboys 17 home Cardinals 27 373 123 250 0 4 -3.5 53.5 +10 44
10/26/25 2025 Cowboys 24 away Broncos 44 354 108 246 1 1 +3.5 51.5 +20 68
10/19/25 2025 Cowboys 44 home Commanders 22 416 152 264 1 1 -1.5 55.5 -22 66
10/12/25 2025 Cowboys 27 away Panthers 30 292 31 261 1 2 -3.0 47.0 +3 57
10/05/25 2025 Cowboys 37 away Jets 22 417 180 237 0 0 +1.5 47.5 -15 59
09/28/25 2025 Cowboys 40 home Packers 40 436 117 319 0 0 +6.5 47.0 0 80
Home Games Avg (5 games) 31.2 - - 27.6 432 131 301 0.2 1.6 +1.6 51.4 -3.6 58.8
All Games Avg (10 games) 30.7 - - 29.4 407 118 290 0.4 1.5 +1.0 50.7 -1.3 60.1
Team Comparison Stats Click to load
Mon, 12/15, 8:15 p.m.
Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Dolphins: 6-7 (46.2%) - AFC East
Steelers: 7-6 (53.8%) - AFC North
Line: -3.5
Total: 41.5
Open: -3.5
Notes
Dolphins
Situational Factor(s)
Extended rest: Non-bye week
Steelers
Situational Factor(s)
Extended rest: Non-bye week
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)
Baller System(s)
Unders system based on the market total being substantially lower than average scoring Historical ATS RecordL5 Years: 59 - 89 - 0 (39.9%)L365 Days: 18 - 22 - 0 (45.0%)Current Season: 10 - 14 - 0 (41.7%)
Baller Index Our Exclusive NFL Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
Dolphins
54.06% probability
Total Recommendation
Under
55.00% probability
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
No notable trends identified for this matchup.
View All Records
Historical Matchups (Last 3 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
10/23/22 2022 Steelers 10 Away Dolphins 16 372 111 261 3 0 +7.0 44.5 +6 26
All Games Avg (1 games) 10.0 - - 16.0 372 111 261 3.0 0.0 +7.0 44.5 +6.0 26.0
Schedules
Dolphins Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/28/25 2025 Dolphins - home Buccaneers - - - - - - +1.0 48.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Dolphins - home Bengals - - - - - - +1.5 50.5 - -
12/15/25 2025 Dolphins - away Steelers - - - - - - +3.5 41.5 - -
12/07/25 2025 Dolphins 34 away Jets 10 366 239 127 3 1 -2.5 41.5 -24 44
11/30/25 2025 Dolphins 21 home Saints 17 321 164 157 1 1 -5.5 41.5 -4 38
11/16/25 2025 Dolphins 16 neutral Commanders 13 340 169 171 1 0 -2.5 47.5 -3 29
11/09/25 2025 Dolphins 30 home Bills 13 370 197 173 1 0 +8.5 50.0 -17 43
10/30/25 2025 Dolphins 6 home Ravens 28 348 87 261 0 2 +7.5 51.5 +22 34
10/26/25 2025 Dolphins 34 away Falcons 10 346 141 205 0 0 +7.0 44.5 -24 44
10/19/25 2025 Dolphins 6 away Browns 31 252 99 153 0 6 +2.5 34.5 +25 37
10/12/25 2025 Dolphins 27 home Chargers 29 350 137 213 0 0 +3.5 45.5 +2 56
10/05/25 2025 Dolphins 24 away Panthers 27 275 19 256 1 0 -1.5 44.5 +3 51
09/29/25 2025 Dolphins 27 home Jets 21 300 123 177 0 2 -2.5 43.5 -6 48
Away Games Avg (4 games) 24.5 - - 19.5 310 125 185 1.0 1.8 +1.4 41.3 -5.0 44.0
All Games Avg (10 games) 22.5 - - 19.9 327 138 189 0.7 1.2 +1.5 44.5 -2.6 42.4
Steelers Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Yds Rush Rec Int Fum Line Total Margin Act Total
12/28/25 2025 Steelers - away Browns - - - - - - -2.5 40.5 - -
12/21/25 2025 Steelers - away Lions - - - - - - +6.5 49.5 - -
12/15/25 2025 Steelers - home Dolphins - - - - - - -3.5 41.5 - -
12/07/25 2025 Steelers 27 away Ravens 22 318 34 284 1 0 +5.5 43.5 -5 49
11/30/25 2025 Steelers 7 home Bills 26 175 58 117 1 2 +3.0 44.5 +19 33
11/23/25 2025 Steelers 28 away Bears 31 357 186 171 0 2 +2.5 45.5 +3 59
11/16/25 2025 Steelers 34 home Bengals 12 354 111 243 1 0 -5.5 47.5 -22 46
11/09/25 2025 Steelers 10 away Chargers 25 234 73 161 0 2 +3.0 45.5 +15 35
11/02/25 2025 Steelers 27 home Colts 20 241 38 203 3 1 +3.0 51.5 -7 47
10/26/25 2025 Steelers 25 home Packers 35 312 93 219 0 1 +2.5 46.0 +10 60
10/16/25 2025 Steelers 31 away Bengals 33 396 147 249 0 0 -5.5 45.0 +2 64
10/12/25 2025 Steelers 23 home Browns 9 335 100 235 0 1 -6.5 38.0 -14 32
09/28/25 2025 Steelers 24 neutral Vikings 21 331 131 200 2 1 +2.5 41.0 -3 45
Home Games Avg (5 games) 23.2 - - 20.4 283 80 203 1.0 1.0 -0.7 45.5 -2.8 43.6
All Games Avg (10 games) 23.6 - - 23.4 305 97 208 0.8 1.0 +0.5 44.8 -0.2 47.0
Team Comparison Stats Click to load

© 2025 TheMoneyBaller. All rights reserved. Admin