Warriors @ Timberwolves [ Timberwolves -10.5 / 201.5 ]

Warriors | 54-37 (59.3%)
Timberwolves | 53-35 (60.2%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Timberwolves (-10.5) a 48.3-50.3% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 201.5 around 32.3-45.2% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Timberwolves have a 49.9% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 31.1% chance of going over the total.

Warriors Situational Notes
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Timberwolves Situational Notes
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller Systems
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Warriors Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/10GSW-
-		-MIN---
5/8MINGSW +10.5
MIN -10.5
201.5GSW---
5/6MIN [ 88 ]GSW +6
MIN -6
210GSW [ 99 ]+11+17-23
5/4HOU [ 89 ]GSW +2.5
HOU -2.5
205.5GSW [ 103 ]+14+16.5-13.5
5/2GSW [ 107 ]GSW -5.5
HOU +5.5
208.5HOU [ 115 ]-8-13.5+13.5
4/30HOU [ 131 ]GSW +4
HOU -4
203GSW [ 116 ]-15-11+44
4/28GSW [ 109 ]GSW -3.5
HOU +3.5
203HOU [ 106 ]+3-0.5+12
4/26GSW [ 104 ]GSW -2
HOU +2
205.5HOU [ 93 ]+11+9-8.5
4/23HOU [ 109 ]GSW +4
HOU -4
204.5GSW [ 94 ]-15-11-1.5
4/20HOU [ 85 ]GSW +1.5
HOU -1.5
213GSW [ 95 ]+10+11.5-33
Timberwolves Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
5/10GSW-
-		-MIN---
5/8MINMIN -10.5
GSW +10.5
201.5GSW---
5/6MIN [ 88 ]MIN -6
GSW +6
210GSW [ 99 ]-11-17-23
4/30LAL [ 96 ]MIN +6
LAL -6
210.5MIN [ 103 ]+7+13-11.5
4/27MIN [ 116 ]MIN -2.5
LAL +2.5
208.5LAL [ 113 ]+3+0.5+20.5
4/25MIN [ 116 ]MIN -4
LAL +4
208LAL [ 104 ]+12+8+12
4/22LAL [ 94 ]MIN +5.5
LAL -5.5
212MIN [ 85 ]-9-3.5-33
4/19LAL [ 95 ]MIN +4.5
LAL -4.5
215.5MIN [ 117 ]+22+26.5-3.5
4/13MIN [ 116 ]MIN -23
UTA +23
233.5UTA [ 105 ]+11-12-12.5
4/11MIN [ 117 ]MIN -21.5
BKN +21.5
219.5BKN [ 91 ]+26+4.5-11.5
Historical Matchups
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU MarginPaceOrtgDrtgNetTot
5/10GSW-
-		-MIN----
-
-
-
-
5/8MINMIN -10.5
GSW +10.5
201.5GSW----
-
-
-
-
5/6MIN [ 88 ]MIN -6
GSW +6
210GSW [ 99 ]-11-17-2388.6
99.3
111.7
-12.4
187
1/15MIN [ 115 ]MIN -7
GSW +7
217GSW [ 116 ]-1-8+1487.7
131.1
132.3
-1.1
231
12/21MIN [ 103 ]MIN -4
GSW +4
218GSW [ 113 ]-10-14-295.9
107.4
117.8
-10.4
216
12/8GSW [ 114 ]MIN +1.5
GSW -1.5
215.5MIN [ 106 ]-8-6.5+4.592.9
114
122.7
-8.6
220
12/6GSW [ 90 ]MIN -1.5
GSW +1.5
219.5MIN [ 107 ]+17+15.5-22.599.5
107.6
90.5
17.1
197
3/24MIN [ 114 ]MIN -2
GSW +2
220GSW [ 110 ]+4+2+498.8
115.4
111.4
4
224
11/14GSW [ 101 ]MIN -3
GSW +3
216MIN [ 104 ]+30-1198
106.1
103
3.1
205
11/12GSW [ 110 ]MIN +2
GSW -2
221.5MIN [ 116 ]+6+8+4.599.5
116.6
110.6
6
226
3/26GSW [ 96 ]MIN +5.5
GSW -5.5
241.5MIN [ 99 ]+3+8.5-46.597
102
99
3.1
195

Efficiency
Warriors
(9 game/s)		 Timberwolves
(6 game/s)
0.67 (4)Win Percentage0.67 (4)
0.44 (13)ATS Win%0.67 (3)
0.44 (14)OU%0.33 (19)
-Strength of Schedule-
114.48 (6)Offensive Rating112.59 (8)
111.71 (18)Defensive Rating110.74 (15)
92.35 (15)Pace91.48 (19)
1.96 (7)A/TO Ratio1.81 (9)

Four Factors
Warriors
(9 game/s)		 Timberwolves
(6 game/s)
52.18 (11)EFG%49.62 (17)
50.6 (14)EFG% Allowed51.98 (17)
21.95 (17)FT Rate26.68 (6)
32.09 (29)FT Rate Allowed25.16 (19)
25.94 (10)OReb%29.96 (3)
31.69 (29)OReb% Allowed26.51 (23)
13.89 (21)TO Rate12.97 (17)
15.7 (5)TO Rate Forced16.77 (3)

Scoring
Warriors
(9 game/s)		 Timberwolves
(6 game/s)
105.33 (12)PPG104.17 (14)
103.56 (13)PPG Allowed100.17 (12)
16.22 (8)Pts off TO18.5 (3)
16.67 (21)Pts off TO Allowed10.5 (13)
14.33 (13)2nd Chance Pts18 (2)
15.67 (24)2nd Chance Pts Allowed13.67 (15)
11.56 (14)Fast Break Pts15 (4)
10.22 (14)Fast Break Pts Allowed9 (12)

Inside the Arc
Warriors
(9 game/s)		 Timberwolves
(6 game/s)
35.22 (19)Paint Attempts45.67 (3)
46.11 (29)Paint Attempts Allowed32.17 (11)
51.1 (17)Paint FG%55.11 (10)
51.57 (14)Paint FG% Allowed52.33 (17)
8.33 (15)Mid-Range Attempts5.33 (18)
8.89 (17)Mid-Range Attempts Allowed8.67 (15)
44 (5)Mid-Range FG%31.25 (19)
35 (14)Mid-Range FG% Allowed38.46 (17)

Three Point Shooting
Warriors
(9 game/s)		 Timberwolves
(6 game/s)
12.11 (1)Corner 3 Attempts9.83 (5)
7.22 (13)Corner 3 Attempts Allowed10.83 (28)
33.03 (13)Corner 3 FG%33.9 (11)
32.31 (16)Corner 3 FG% Allowed43.08 (27)
30.44 (4)ATB3 Attempts25.83 (12)
20.44 (12)ATB3 Attempts Allowed28.17 (25)
38.32 (5)ATB3 FG%29.03 (19)
38.04 (25)ATB3 FG% Allowed34.32 (20)


Straight Up Records (SU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Warriors 1h4-5-01-3-0----3-2-0------2-0-0
Warriors 6-33-1--3-2---2-0
Timberwolves 1h3-3-01-2-0----2-1-01-0-0--0-1-0--
Timberwolves 4-22-1--2-11-0-0-1-

Against the Spread Records (ATS)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Warriors 1h4-5-01-3-0----3-2-0------2-0-0
Warriors 4-5-01-3-0----3-2-0------2-0-0
Timberwolves 1h3-3-01-2-0----2-1-01-0-0--0-1-0--
Timberwolves 4-2-02-1-0----2-1-01-0-0--0-1-0--

Over/Under Records (OU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Warriors 1h4-5-02-2-0----2-3-0------0-2-0
Warriors 4-5-03-1-0----1-4-0------0-2-0
Timberwolves 1h3-3-02-1-0----1-2-01-0-0--0-1-0--
Timberwolves 2-4-02-1-0----0-3-00-1-0--0-1-0--

Team Total Records (TT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Warriors 1h1-8-01-3-0----0-5-0------0-2-0
Warriors 5-3-13-0-1----2-3-0------0-2-0
Timberwolves 1h3-2-11-1-1----2-1-01-0-0--0-1-0--
Timberwolves 4-2-02-1-0----2-1-01-0-0--0-1-0--

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Warriors 1h4-5-02-2-0----2-3-0------0-2-0
Warriors 5-4-03-1-0----2-3-0------0-2-0
Timberwolves 1h3-3-02-1-0----1-2-00-1-0--0-1-0--
Timberwolves 2-4-02-1-0----0-3-00-1-0--0-1-0--


ATS Range Records
TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Warriors0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)2-2-0 (50%)2-0-0 (100%)0-4-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Timberwolves0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)2-1-0 (66.7%)0-0-0 (-)2-1-0 (66.7%)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)