Suns @ Bulls [ Bulls +4.5 / 238.5 ]

Suns | 26-29 (47.3%)
Bulls | 22-34 (39.3%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Bulls (+4.5) a 44.7-40% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 238.5 around 46.5-42.6% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Bulls have a 46% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 45.4% chance of going over the total.

Suns Situational Notes
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)
1st game of a back-to-back

Baller Systems
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Bulls Situational Notes
Coming off an Overtime game

Suns Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
2/23TOR-
-		-PHO---
2/22CHIPHO -4.5
CHI +4.5
238.5PHO---
2/20SAS [ 120 ]PHO -2.5
SAS +2.5
237.5PHO [ 109 ]-11-13.5-8.5
2/12HOU [ 119 ]PHO +10
HOU -10
220.5PHO [ 111 ]-8+2+9.5
2/11PHO [ 112 ]PHO +4
MEM -4
246MEM [ 119 ]-7-3-15
2/8PHO [ 105 ]PHO +6.5
DEN -6.5
233.5DEN [ 122 ]-17-10.5-6.5
2/7PHO [ 135 ]PHO -7.5
UTA +7.5
231UTA [ 127 ]+8+0.5+31
2/5OKC [ 140 ]PHO +13.5
OKC -13.5
230.5PHO [ 109 ]-31-17.5+18.5
2/3POR [ 121 ]PHO -5
POR +5
229PHO [ 119 ]-2-7+11
2/1POR [ 127 ]PHO -4.5
POR +4.5
227PHO [ 108 ]-19-23.5+8
Bulls Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
2/24PHI-
-		-CHI---
2/22CHICHI +4.5
PHO -4.5
238.5PHO---
2/20NYK [ 113 ]CHI +10
NYK -10
244CHI [ 111 ]-2+8-20
2/12CHI [ 110 ]CHI +6
DET -6
237DET [ 128 ]-18-12+1
2/11CHI [ 92 ]CHI +5
DET -5
237.5DET [ 132 ]-40-35-13.5
2/8CHI [ 111 ]CHI +6.5
GSW -6.5
240.5GSW [ 132 ]-21-14.5+2.5
2/5MIN [ 127 ]CHI +11.5
MIN -11.5
226CHI [ 108 ]-19-7.5+9
2/4CHI [ 133 ]CHI +3.5
MIA -3.5
229MIA [ 124 ]+9+12.5+28
2/2DET [ 127 ]CHI +5.5
DET -5.5
233.5CHI [ 119 ]-8-2.5+12.5
1/31TOR [ 106 ]CHI +4.5
TOR -4.5
233.5CHI [ 122 ]+16+20.5-5.5
Historical Matchups
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU MarginPaceOrtgDrtgNetTot
3/19PHO-
-		-CHI----
-
-
-
-
2/22CHICHI +4.5
PHO -4.5
238.5PHO----
-
-
-
-
1/22PHO [ 115 ]CHI +5.5
PHO -5.5
226.5CHI [ 113 ]-2+3.5+1.593.3
121.1
123.2
-2.1
228
11/8CHI [ 115 ]CHI +1
PHO -1
218PHO [ 116 ]-10+1396.4
108
108.9
-0.9
209.2
3/3CHI [ 104 ]CHI +3
PHO -3
224.5PHO [ 125 ]-21-18+4.590.1
115.4
138.8
-23.3
229
11/30PHO [ 132 ]CHI +5.5
PHO -5.5
227CHI [ 113 ]-19-13.5+18102.7
110
128.5
-18.5
245
3/18PHO [ 129 ]CHI +4.5
PHO -4.5
232CHI [ 102 ]-27-22.5-195.4
106.9
135.2
-28.3
231
2/7CHI [ 124 ]CHI +6.5
PHO -6.5
229PHO [ 127 ]-3+3.5+2298.2
126.2
129.3
-3.1
251
3/31PHO [ 121 ]CHI +8
PHO -8
216CHI [ 116 ]-5+3+2195.2
121.9
127.1
-5.3
237
2/26CHI [ 97 ]CHI +6.5
PHO -6.5
226.5PHO [ 106 ]-9-2.5-23.595.2
101.9
111.3
-9.5
203
2/22CHI [ 104 ]CHI +3
PHO -3
220PHO [ 112 ]-8-5-4100.2
103.8
111.7
-8
216

Efficiency
Suns
(55 game/s)		 Bulls
(56 game/s)
0.47 (18)Win Percentage0.39 (23)
0.35 (29)ATS Win%0.44 (22)
0.51 (19)OU%0.49 (22)
-Strength of Schedule-
115.28 (10)Offensive Rating112.49 (20)
117.34 (27)Defensive Rating116.28 (23)
97.36 (24)Pace102.98 (3)
1.95 (10)A/TO Ratio1.91 (13)

Four Factors
Suns
(55 game/s)		 Bulls
(56 game/s)
55.6 (8)EFG%54.91 (12)
53.74 (12)EFG% Allowed54.4 (19)
25.74 (8)FT Rate20.58 (30)
24.58 (14)FT Rate Allowed22.43 (7)
21.71 (27)OReb%21.38 (28)
27.03 (28)OReb% Allowed23.76 (6)
14.32 (16)TO Rate14.61 (18)
12.74 (28)TO Rate Forced12.07 (29)

Scoring
Suns
(55 game/s)		 Bulls
(56 game/s)
113.13 (14)PPG115.91 (10)
115.07 (20)PPG Allowed120.55 (29)
15.95 (24)Pts off TO15.07 (28)
17.07 (12)Pts off TO Allowed18.34 (19)
12.05 (26)2nd Chance Pts13.04 (23)
14.67 (20)2nd Chance Pts Allowed15.36 (26)
13.42 (25)Fast Break Pts16.96 (7)
16.67 (24)Fast Break Pts Allowed15.68 (18)

Inside the Arc
Suns
(55 game/s)		 Bulls
(56 game/s)
36.84 (28)Paint Attempts41.63 (19)
43.84 (23)Paint Attempts Allowed47.11 (30)
57.16 (14)Paint FG%57.53 (12)
56.78 (16)Paint FG% Allowed59.14 (28)
11.51 (4)Mid-Range Attempts7.13 (24)
8.69 (13)Mid-Range Attempts Allowed8.59 (12)
48.66 (1)Mid-Range FG%37.09 (27)
39.75 (10)Mid-Range FG% Allowed41.58 (18)

Three Point Shooting
Suns
(55 game/s)		 Bulls
(56 game/s)
11.64 (2)Corner 3 Attempts11.13 (3)
8.36 (4)Corner 3 Attempts Allowed9.13 (10)
40.94 (6)Corner 3 FG%38.36 (17)
41.74 (29)Corner 3 FG% Allowed36.4 (2)
25.91 (23)ATB3 Attempts31.7 (3)
29.64 (25)ATB3 Attempts Allowed30.36 (29)
35.72 (11)ATB3 FG%36.56 (9)
34.17 (6)ATB3 FG% Allowed34 (4)


Straight Up Records (SU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Suns 1h29-22-47-6-35-5-09-6-08-4-17-3-14-5-24-4-18-6-2
Suns 26-2912-44-69-61-126-52-96-34-12
Bulls 1h18-36-24-5-05-14-13-1-16-16-04-5-12-8-06-5-12-7-1
Bulls 22-343-67-133-29-135-52-86-63-7

Against the Spread Records (ATS)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Suns 1h27-27-14-11-15-5-09-6-09-4-07-4-04-7-05-4-08-8-0
Suns 19-35-14-11-14-6-07-8-04-9-06-5-03-7-14-5-03-12-1
Bulls 1h26-30-04-5-07-13-03-2-012-10-05-5-04-6-06-6-05-5-0
Bulls 24-30-23-6-09-10-12-2-110-12-05-5-02-8-06-6-03-6-1

Over/Under Records (OU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Suns 1h23-32-09-7-04-6-05-10-05-8-03-8-07-4-04-5-08-8-0
Suns 27-26-26-9-13-7-011-4-07-5-16-5-06-5-01-7-112-4-0
Bulls 1h25-31-02-7-011-9-00-5-012-10-04-6-05-5-05-7-05-5-0
Bulls 27-28-12-7-012-8-01-4-012-9-15-5-06-3-16-6-08-2-0

Team Total Records (TT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Suns 1h27-27-18-8-05-5-06-9-08-4-17-4-06-4-12-7-010-5-1
Suns 27-28-08-8-04-6-09-6-06-7-07-4-05-6-02-7-010-6-0
Bulls 1h22-34-02-7-010-10-00-5-010-12-03-7-04-6-05-7-04-6-0
Bulls 32-24-04-5-010-10-03-2-015-7-05-5-07-3-07-5-09-1-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Suns 1h24-31-09-7-05-5-07-8-03-10-02-9-09-2-03-6-09-7-0
Suns 33-22-08-8-05-5-012-3-08-5-05-6-09-2-03-6-015-1-0
Bulls 1h30-25-15-4-014-6-00-5-011-10-14-6-06-4-06-6-06-4-0
Bulls 29-27-03-6-011-9-02-3-013-9-05-5-06-4-07-5-08-2-0


ATS Range Records
TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Suns1-1-0 (50%)1-3-0 (25%)4-7-0 (36.4%)4-6-0 (40%)5-11-0 (31.3%)3-2-1 (60%)1-5-0 (16.7%)
Bulls3-4-0 (42.9%)4-5-0 (44.4%)11-11-1 (50%)1-3-1 (25%)3-6-0 (33.3%)1-1-0 (50%)1-0-0 (100%)