Cavaliers @ Heat [ Heat +5.5 / 213 ]

Cavaliers | 66-18 (78.6%)
Heat | 39-47 (45.3%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Heat (+5.5) a 45.2-52% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 213 around 34.5-32.6% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Heat have a 47.9% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 32.6% chance of going over the total.

Cavaliers Situational Notes
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller Systems
• Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Heat Situational Notes
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)

Cavaliers Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/28MIA-
-		-CLE---
4/26MIACLE -5.5
MIA +5.5
213CLE---
4/23CLE [ 121 ]CLE -12
MIA +12
212.5MIA [ 112 ]+9-3+20.5
4/20CLE [ 121 ]CLE -12.5
MIA +12.5
216MIA [ 100 ]+21+8.5+5
4/13CLE [ 118 ]CLE +7
IND -7
227IND [ 126 ]-8-1+17
4/11NYK [ 102 ]CLE +3.5
NYK -3.5
223.5CLE [ 108 ]+6+9.5-13.5
4/10IND [ 114 ]CLE +9.5
IND -9.5
234.5CLE [ 112 ]-2+7.5-8.5
4/8CLE [ 135 ]CLE -15
CHI +15
240CHI [ 113 ]+22+7+8
4/6CLE [ 113 ]CLE -9.5
SAC +9.5
238SAC [ 120 ]-7-16.5-5
4/4SAS [ 113 ]CLE -12.5
SAS +12.5
242CLE [ 114 ]+1-11.5-15
Heat Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/28MIA-
-		-CLE---
4/26MIAMIA +5.5
CLE -5.5
213CLE---
4/23CLE [ 121 ]MIA +12
CLE -12
212.5MIA [ 112 ]-9+3+20.5
4/20CLE [ 121 ]MIA +12.5
CLE -12.5
216MIA [ 100 ]-21-8.5+5
4/18ATL [ 114 ]MIA -2
ATL +2
221MIA [ 123 ]+9+7+16
4/16CHI [ 90 ]MIA +2
CHI -2
220MIA [ 109 ]+19+21-21
4/13MIA [ 118 ]MIA -8.5
WAS +8.5
215.5WAS [ 119 ]-1-9.5+21.5
4/11NOP [ 104 ]MIA -14.5
NOP +14.5
215.5MIA [ 153 ]+49+34.5+41.5
4/9CHI [ 119 ]MIA -2.5
CHI +2.5
227.5MIA [ 111 ]-8-10.5+2.5
4/7MIA [ 117 ]MIA -12
PHI +12
216.5PHI [ 105 ]+120+5.5
Historical Matchups
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU MarginPaceOrtgDrtgNetTot
4/28MIA-
-		-CLE----
-
-
-
-
4/26MIAMIA +5.5
CLE -5.5
213CLE----
-
-
-
-
4/23CLE [ 121 ]MIA +12
CLE -12
212.5MIA [ 112 ]-9+3+20.590.8
123.4
133.3
-9.9
233
4/20CLE [ 121 ]MIA +12.5
CLE -12.5
216MIA [ 100 ]-21-8.5+585.9
116.5
140.9
-24.5
221
3/5CLE [ 112 ]MIA +13
CLE -13
220MIA [ 107 ]-5+8-196.8
110.6
115.8
-5.2
219
1/29MIA [ 106 ]MIA +8
CLE -8
227.5CLE [ 126 ]-20-12+4.594.1
112.7
134
-21.3
232
12/8MIA [ 122 ]MIA +2.5
CLE -2.5
223.5CLE [ 113 ]+9+11.5+11.596.1
127
117.6
9.4
235
3/24MIA [ 121 ]MIA -4
CLE +4
203.5CLE [ 84 ]+37+33+1.591.3
132.5
92
40.5
205
3/20CLE [ 104 ]MIA +2
CLE -2
203.5MIA [ 107 ]+3+5+7.588.2
121.3
117.9
3.4
211
12/8MIA [ 99 ]MIA +2
CLE -2
220CLE [ 111 ]-12-10-1099
100
112.1
-12.1
210
11/22CLE [ 96 ]MIA -3
CLE +3
211MIA [ 129 ]+33+30+1494
137.2
102.1
35.1
225

Efficiency
Cavaliers
(82 game/s)		 Heat
(82 game/s)
0.79 (2)Win Percentage0.45 (20)
0.59 (3)ATS Win%0.5 (14)
0.62 (1)OU%0.55 (10)
-Strength of Schedule-
121.86 (1)Offensive Rating113.58 (21)
112.27 (8)Defensive Rating113.34 (10)
99.8 (9)Pace95.97 (27)
2.16 (4)A/TO Ratio1.93 (12)

Four Factors
Cavaliers
(82 game/s)		 Heat
(82 game/s)
57.97 (1)EFG%54.67 (17)
53.1 (4)EFG% Allowed54.4 (17)
24.07 (19)FT Rate22.92 (26)
23.06 (10)FT Rate Allowed20.12 (3)
25.89 (12)OReb%22.44 (27)
25.2 (16)OReb% Allowed23.76 (7)
12.98 (3)TO Rate14.1 (12)
14.47 (15)TO Rate Forced14.01 (18)

Scoring
Cavaliers
(82 game/s)		 Heat
(82 game/s)
121.79 (1)PPG110.71 (24)
112.16 (12)PPG Allowed110.12 (8)
18.61 (10)Pts off TO16.29 (22)
15.72 (5)Pts off TO Allowed16.56 (8)
13.85 (18)2nd Chance Pts12.37 (27)
13.87 (15)2nd Chance Pts Allowed12.61 (3)
14.74 (19)Fast Break Pts13.93 (24)
15.09 (13)Fast Break Pts Allowed15.18 (14)

Inside the Arc
Cavaliers
(82 game/s)		 Heat
(82 game/s)
41.82 (19)Paint Attempts41.83 (18)
42.37 (13)Paint Attempts Allowed41.79 (8)
60.72 (2)Paint FG%56.18 (22)
55.3 (6)Paint FG% Allowed58.45 (25)
7.12 (24)Mid-Range Attempts7.66 (21)
10.45 (30)Mid-Range Attempts Allowed8.63 (12)
42.47 (12)Mid-Range FG%42.99 (8)
40.49 (10)Mid-Range FG% Allowed36.3 (1)

Three Point Shooting
Cavaliers
(82 game/s)		 Heat
(82 game/s)
10.46 (7)Corner 3 Attempts10.88 (4)
10.45 (27)Corner 3 Attempts Allowed9.15 (9)
40.44 (7)Corner 3 FG%39.35 (13)
39.91 (23)Corner 3 FG% Allowed38.4 (14)
30.84 (5)ATB3 Attempts26.33 (20)
26.91 (10)ATB3 Attempts Allowed28.61 (21)
38.08 (1)ATB3 FG%36.17 (12)
34.8 (9)ATB3 FG% Allowed35.59 (19)


Straight Up Records (SU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Cavaliers 1h58-20-435-5-2--22-9-21-6-011-4-110-5-114-4-18-5-0
Cavaliers 65-1736-6-25-84-311-512-417-28-5
Heat 1h47-30-513-9-27-4-213-5-114-11-06-7-210-5-07-7-013-6-0
Heat 37-4514-103-1011-88-173-127-87-710-9

Against the Spread Records (ATS)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Cavaliers 1h45-35-226-15-1--18-15-01-5-19-7-08-7-113-6-06-6-1
Cavaliers 48-33-123-18-1--19-14-06-1-012-4-08-8-015-4-07-6-0
Heat 1h47-33-211-12-110-3-011-7-115-10-07-7-19-6-07-6-112-6-1
Heat 40-40-212-11-18-5-08-11-011-13-15-9-17-8-06-8-010-9-0

Over/Under Records (OU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Cavaliers 1h38-43-121-20-1--14-19-03-4-06-10-010-5-112-7-07-6-0
Cavaliers 50-31-126-16-0--21-11-13-4-010-6-011-5-013-6-08-5-0
Heat 1h38-42-212-11-15-8-09-10-011-13-16-9-04-11-05-8-18-11-0
Heat 45-37-015-9-07-6-010-9-012-13-010-5-04-11-09-5-06-13-0

Team Total Records (TT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Cavaliers 1h37-45-022-20-0--13-20-02-5-07-9-07-9-012-7-05-8-0
Cavaliers 46-34-224-18-0--19-12-23-4-09-6-110-5-112-7-09-4-0
Heat 1h40-39-39-14-17-6-09-9-114-10-16-9-05-10-05-9-07-11-1
Heat 45-36-113-11-07-6-012-7-012-12-18-7-06-9-08-6-08-11-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Cavaliers 1h37-43-219-22-1--13-19-15-2-05-10-111-5-09-10-07-6-0
Cavaliers 38-44-020-22-0--17-16-01-6-07-9-08-8-07-12-07-6-0
Heat 1h34-47-112-12-03-10-09-9-19-16-05-10-06-8-16-8-08-11-0
Heat 43-37-214-10-06-6-110-8-112-13-09-6-05-9-18-6-08-11-0


ATS Range Records
TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Cavaliers0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-1-0 (50%)
Heat1-1-0 (50%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)2-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)