Jazz @ Hornets [ Hornets +1 / 219.5 ]

Jazz | 16-58 (21.6%)
Hornets | 18-57 (24%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Hornets (+1) a 45.6-48.5% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 219.5 around 44.4-42.7% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Hornets have a 50% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 44.7% chance of going over the total.

Jazz Situational Notes
In-season revenge
Rest advantage
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller Systems
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Hornets Situational Notes
2nd game of a back-to-back
3rd game in 4 nights

Jazz Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/2HOU-
-		-UTA---
3/31CHAUTA -1
CHA +1
219.5UTA---
3/28DEN [ 129 ]UTA +19
DEN -19
238.5UTA [ 93 ]-36-17-16.5
3/27UTA [ 110 ]UTA +13.5
HOU -13.5
227HOU [ 121 ]-11+2.5+4
3/25UTA [ 103 ]UTA +11.5
MEM -11.5
241.5MEM [ 140 ]-37-25.5+1.5
3/23UTA [ 91 ]UTA +16.5
CLE -16.5
241.5CLE [ 120 ]-29-12.5-30.5
3/21UTA [ 99 ]UTA +15
BOS -15
228.5BOS [ 121 ]-22-7-8.5
3/19UTA [ 128 ]UTA -2.5
WAS +2.5
234.5WAS [ 112 ]+16+13.5+5.5
3/17UTA [ 97 ]UTA +4.5
CHI -4.5
242CHI [ 111 ]-14-9.5-34
3/16MIN [ 128 ]UTA +12.5
MIN -12.5
232.5UTA [ 102 ]-26-13.5-2.5
Hornets Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
4/2IND-
-		-CHA---
3/31CHACHA +1
UTA -1
219.5UTA---
3/30NOP [ 98 ]CHA +2.5
NOP -2.5
213.5CHA [ 94 ]-4-1.5-21.5
3/28TOR [ 108 ]CHA +5.5
TOR -5.5
218CHA [ 97 ]-11-5.5-13
3/25CHA [ 104 ]CHA +5.5
ORL -5.5
214.5ORL [ 111 ]-7-1.5+0.5
3/23MIA [ 122 ]CHA +7.5
MIA -7.5
215CHA [ 105 ]-17-9.5+12
3/21OKC [ 141 ]CHA +20.5
OKC -20.5
220CHA [ 106 ]-35-14.5+27
3/20CHA [ 115 ]CHA +7.5
NYK -7.5
221.5NYK [ 98 ]+17+24.5-8.5
3/18CHA [ 102 ]CHA +8
ATL -8
231ATL [ 134 ]-32-24+5
3/16LAC [ 123 ]CHA +13.5
LAC -13.5
225.5CHA [ 88 ]-35-21.5-14.5
Historical Matchups
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU MarginPaceOrtgDrtgNetTot
3/31CHACHA +1
UTA -1
219.5UTA----
-
-
-
-
1/15UTA [ 112 ]CHA -5.5
UTA +5.5
222.5CHA [ 117 ]+5-0.5+6.598.8
118.4
113.4
5.1
229
2/22UTA [ 107 ]CHA +10
UTA -10
230.5CHA [ 115 ]+8+18-8.597.8
117.5
109.4
8.2
222
1/27CHA [ 122 ]CHA +10.5
UTA -10.5
230.5UTA [ 134 ]-12-1.5+25.598.5
123.8
136
-12.2
256
3/11CHA [ 111 ]CHA +1
UTA -1
229.5UTA [ 119 ]-8-7+0.598.1
113.2
121.3
-8.2
230
1/23UTA [ 120 ]CHA +9
UTA -9
236.5CHA [ 102 ]-18-9-14.5101.3
100.7
118.4
-17.8
222
3/25CHA [ 107 ]CHA +4
UTA -4
228UTA [ 101 ]+6+10-2087.8
121.8
115
6.8
208
12/20UTA [ 112 ]CHA +12
UTA -12
237.5CHA [ 102 ]-10+2-23.5104.5
97.6
107.1
-9.6
214
2/22UTA [ 132 ]CHA +12.5
UTA -12.5
228CHA [ 110 ]-22-9.5+14104.6
105.1
126.1
-21
242
2/5CHA [ 121 ]CHA +8.5
UTA -8.5
224.5UTA [ 138 ]-17-8.5+34.5102
118.6
135.3
-16.7
259
1/10UTA [ 109 ]CHA +12.5
UTA -12.5
209.5CHA [ 92 ]-17-4.5-8.592.3
99.6
118
-18.4
201

Efficiency
Jazz
(75 game/s)		 Hornets
(75 game/s)
0.21 (30)Win Percentage0.24 (28)
0.5 (14)ATS Win%0.47 (19)
0.57 (7)OU%0.36 (30)
-Strength of Schedule-
110.23 (26)Offensive Rating107.62 (29)
120.03 (30)Defensive Rating116.25 (24)
100.13 (8)Pace97.44 (23)
1.46 (30)A/TO Ratio1.59 (28)

Four Factors
Jazz
(75 game/s)		 Hornets
(75 game/s)
53.49 (20)EFG%50.05 (30)
55.42 (25)EFG% Allowed54.57 (18)
25.69 (6)FT Rate21.72 (28)
24.48 (16)FT Rate Allowed24.64 (17)
26.96 (7)OReb%26.8 (8)
25.7 (22)OReb% Allowed25.55 (20)
17.32 (30)TO Rate15.69 (27)
11.73 (30)TO Rate Forced13.85 (20)

Scoring
Jazz
(75 game/s)		 Hornets
(75 game/s)
111.59 (21)PPG105.28 (28)
120.19 (29)PPG Allowed113.79 (15)
13.05 (30)Pts off TO15.09 (28)
22.13 (30)Pts off TO Allowed18.96 (24)
14.77 (9)2nd Chance Pts16.68 (2)
15.53 (27)2nd Chance Pts Allowed13.33 (8)
14.15 (22)Fast Break Pts12.16 (29)
19.44 (30)Fast Break Pts Allowed16.28 (21)

Inside the Arc
Jazz
(75 game/s)		 Hornets
(75 game/s)
42.37 (16)Paint Attempts43.39 (13)
43.57 (21)Paint Attempts Allowed41.25 (6)
56.51 (17)Paint FG%51.48 (30)
59.21 (28)Paint FG% Allowed58.24 (24)
6.49 (26)Mid-Range Attempts7.79 (20)
7.69 (4)Mid-Range Attempts Allowed8.13 (9)
37.37 (28)Mid-Range FG%38.18 (25)
45.41 (27)Mid-Range FG% Allowed42.95 (21)

Three Point Shooting
Jazz
(75 game/s)		 Hornets
(75 game/s)
11.07 (3)Corner 3 Attempts9.52 (16)
9.57 (17)Corner 3 Attempts Allowed9.01 (7)
40.6 (6)Corner 3 FG%36.55 (25)
39 (18)Corner 3 FG% Allowed42.6 (30)
28.03 (12)ATB3 Attempts28.83 (9)
31.65 (30)ATB3 Attempts Allowed29.79 (27)
33.44 (27)ATB3 FG%33.35 (28)
34.63 (9)ATB3 FG% Allowed33.57 (2)


Straight Up Records (SU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Jazz 1h20-51-33-0-08-26-1--9-25-22-10-21-11-12-7-04-16-1
Jazz 16-582-17-28-7-292-123-102-74-17
Hornets 1h18-54-32-2-09-22-20-3-07-27-14-10-02-11-05-7-13-10-0
Hornets 18-571-310-231-26-293-113-104-93-10

Against the Spread Records (ATS)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Jazz 1h35-37-21-2-015-18-2--19-17-07-7-06-7-04-4-110-10-1
Jazz 37-37-01-2-017-18-0--19-17-08-6-04-9-04-5-010-11-0
Hornets 1h29-46-02-2-013-20-00-3-014-21-06-8-03-10-07-6-04-9-0
Hornets 35-39-10-4-019-14-00-3-016-18-18-6-08-5-06-6-15-8-0

Over/Under Records (OU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Jazz 1h22-52-01-2-012-23-0--9-27-06-8-02-11-03-6-04-17-0
Jazz 41-31-23-0-017-17-1--21-14-19-5-04-8-16-3-09-10-2
Hornets 1h27-46-22-2-08-24-13-0-014-20-16-8-05-7-16-7-07-6-0
Hornets 27-47-12-2-09-23-12-1-014-21-04-9-14-9-06-7-06-7-0

Team Total Records (TT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Jazz 1h27-45-21-2-014-20-1--12-23-16-8-02-10-13-6-06-13-2
Jazz 41-33-02-1-018-17-0--21-15-08-6-05-8-05-4-011-10-0
Hornets 1h21-53-12-2-09-23-10-3-010-25-03-10-14-9-06-7-05-8-0
Hornets 28-45-22-2-011-20-21-2-014-21-05-9-06-7-07-6-06-7-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Jazz 1h25-49-01-2-014-21-0--10-26-07-7-05-8-04-5-06-15-0
Jazz 43-31-02-1-018-17-0--23-13-09-5-06-7-05-4-012-9-0
Hornets 1h38-36-13-1-013-19-13-0-019-16-07-7-08-5-06-7-010-3-0
Hornets 36-38-14-0-011-21-13-0-018-17-06-7-14-9-07-6-08-5-0


ATS Range Records
TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Jazz9-18-0 (33.3%)11-8-1 (57.9%)15-7-0 (68.2%)1-3-0 (25%)1-1-0 (50%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Hornets15-13-0 (53.6%)5-5-1 (50%)12-13-0 (48%)3-1-0 (75%)0-7-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)