Magic @ Celtics [ Celtics -14.5 / 213 ]

Magic | 23-19 (54.8%)
Celtics | 28-12 (70%)

Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Celtics (-14.5) a 53.1-46.3% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 213 around 49.3-57.8% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Celtics have a 55.8% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 47.8% chance of going over the total.

Magic Situational Notes

Celtics Situational Notes
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)
In-season revenge
1st game of a back-to-back

Baller Systems
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Magic Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
1/19ORL-
-		-DEN---
1/17BOSORL +14.5
BOS -14.5
213ORL---
1/15MIL [ 122 ]ORL +6.5
MIL -6.5
212.5ORL [ 93 ]-29-22.5+2.5
1/12ORL [ 104 ]ORL -2
PHI +2
208PHI [ 99 ]+5+3-5
1/10ORL [ 106 ]ORL +6
MIL -6
212.5MIL [ 109 ]-3+3+2.5
1/9ORL [ 89 ]ORL +5.5
MIN -5.5
199MIN [ 104 ]-15-9.5-6
1/6NYK [ 94 ]ORL +11
NYK -11
206.5ORL [ 103 ]+9+20-9.5
1/5ORL [ 92 ]ORL -9
UTA +9
208.5UTA [ 105 ]-13-22-11.5
1/3TOR [ 97 ]ORL -2.5
TOR +2.5
214.5ORL [ 106 ]+9+6.5-11.5
1/1DET [ 105 ]ORL +2
DET -2
211.5ORL [ 96 ]-9-7-10.5
Celtics Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
1/18BOS-
-		-ATL---
1/17BOSBOS -14.5
ORL +14.5
213ORL---
1/15TOR [ 110 ]BOS -14
TOR +14
228.5BOS [ 97 ]-13-27-21.5
1/12BOS [ 120 ]BOS -15
NOP +15
230.5NOP [ 119 ]+1-14+8.5
1/10BOS [ 97 ]BOS -12
SAC +12
226SAC [ 114 ]-17-29-15
1/7DEN [ 106 ]BOS -10.5
DEN +10.5
231.5BOS [ 118 ]+12+1.5-7.5
1/5OKC [ 105 ]BOS +1.5
OKC -1.5
225.5BOS [ 92 ]-13-11.5-28.5
1/3HOU [ 86 ]BOS -4
HOU +4
221BOS [ 109 ]+23+19-26
1/2MIN [ 115 ]BOS -2.5
MIN +2.5
215.5BOS [ 118 ]+3+0.5+17.5
12/31BOS [ 125 ]BOS -17
TOR +17
231TOR [ 71 ]+54+37-35
Historical Matchups
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU MarginPaceOrtgDrtgNetTot
4/9ORL-
-		-BOS----
-
-
-
-
1/17BOSBOS -14.5
ORL +14.5
213ORL----
-
-
-
-
12/23ORL [ 108 ]BOS -8.5
ORL +8.5
213.5BOS [ 104 ]-4-12.5-1.5103.1
100.9
104.7
-3.9
212
12/17BOS [ 114 ]BOS -9
ORL +9
225ORL [ 97 ]+17+8-1497.8
116.5
99.2
17.4
211
12/15BOS [ 128 ]BOS -5.5
ORL +5.5
226ORL [ 111 ]+17+11.5+1399.2
129
111.9
17.1
239
11/24ORL [ 113 ]BOS -5.5
ORL +5.5
221BOS [ 96 ]-17-22.5-1298.5
97.4
114.7
-17.3
209
1/23ORL [ 113 ]BOS -7.5
ORL +7.5
229BOS [ 98 ]-15-22.5-1895.2
102.9
118.7
-15.8
211
12/18BOS [ 92 ]BOS -10.5
ORL +10.5
223ORL [ 95 ]-3-13.5-36100.3
91.7
94.7
-3
187
12/16BOS [ 109 ]BOS -13
ORL +13
225ORL [ 117 ]-8-21+1101.3
107.6
115.5
-7.9
226
10/22ORL [ 120 ]BOS -8.5
ORL +8.5
215.5BOS [ 126 ]+6-2.5+30.598.1
128.4
122.3
6.1
246
2/6ORL [ 83 ]BOS -9.5
ORL +9.5
216BOS [ 116 ]+33+23.5-17100.1
115.8
82.9
33
199

Efficiency
Magic
(42 games)		 Celtics
(40 games)
0.56 (9)Win Percentage0.72 (3)
53.66 (9)ATS Win%40 (27)
40.48 (28)OU%42.5 (27)
-Strength of Schedule-
108.72 (28)Offensive Rating120.09 (3)
107.1 (2)Defensive Rating110.61 (8)
96.4 (30)Pace97.48 (23)
1.56 (24)A/TO Ratio2.12 (4)

Four Factors
Magic
(42 games)		 Celtics
(40 games)
51.23 (26)EFG%55.74 (8)
53.28 (11)EFG% Allowed52.49 (4)
26.73 (4)FT Rate23.17 (23)
28.37 (28)FT Rate Allowed19.78 (1)
25.48 (13)OReb%24.69 (17)
21.61 (1)OReb% Allowed23.44 (7)
15.69 (20)TO Rate12.19 (2)
17.48 (3)TO Rate Forced13.8 (24)

Scoring
Magic
(42 games)		 Celtics
(40 games)
104.8 (30)PPG118 (5)
103.24 (1)PPG Allowed108.69 (6)
19.68 (5)Pts off TO15.74 (27)
18.27 (18)Pts off TO Allowed13.62 (2)
13.54 (17)2nd Chance Pts14.46 (10)
10.85 (1)2nd Chance Pts Allowed12.54 (6)
13.59 (25)Fast Break Pts12.13 (30)
13.17 (5)Fast Break Pts Allowed14.26 (8)

Inside the Arc
Magic
(42 games)		 Celtics
(40 games)
39.85 (23)Paint Attempts34.82 (30)
39.9 (4)Paint Attempts Allowed43.82 (23)
58.45 (10)Paint FG%60.6 (3)
55.62 (10)Paint FG% Allowed54.83 (4)
8.27 (17)Mid-Range Attempts6.64 (24)
9.68 (26)Mid-Range Attempts Allowed9.67 (25)
0.39 (22)Mid-Range FG%0.41 (15)
0.41 (14)Mid-Range FG% Allowed0.37 (4)

Three Point Shooting
Magic
(42 games)		 Celtics
(40 games)
10.34 (11)Corner 3 Attempts10.26 (12)
7.88 (2)Corner 3 Attempts Allowed8.23 (4)
33.96 (29)Corner 3 FG%37.5 (19)
40.56 (26)Corner 3 FG% Allowed38.32 (16)
26.22 (21)ATB3 Attempts39.03 (1)
22.71 (1)ATB3 Attempts Allowed28.03 (17)
30.05 (30)ATB3 FG%36.01 (13)
34.91 (13)ATB3 FG% Allowed35.5 (18)


Straight Up Records (SU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Magic 1h16-22-49-4-11-5-14-3-22-10-03-4-12-4-23-6-12-5-1
Magic 23-1912-22-56-33-92-64-45-53-5
Celtics 1h26-12-214-7-00-0-011-4-21-1-04-2-05-1-08-2-15-3-1
Celtics 28-1214-70-014-30-24-25-19-26-3

Against the Spread Records (ATS)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Magic 1h14-27-15-8-12-5-04-5-03-9-02-6-03-5-03-7-03-5-0
Magic 22-19-110-4-03-3-15-4-04-8-02-6-04-4-04-5-14-4-0
Celtics 1h19-21-09-12-00-0-09-8-01-1-02-4-04-2-06-5-02-7-0
Celtics 16-24-07-14-00-0-09-8-00-2-02-4-04-2-03-8-03-6-0

Over/Under Records (OU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Magic 1h18-24-07-7-01-6-04-5-06-6-02-6-01-7-06-4-02-6-0
Magic 17-25-07-7-01-6-01-8-08-4-02-6-03-5-05-5-02-6-0
Celtics 1h17-21-27-14-00-0-09-6-21-1-03-3-03-2-14-7-03-6-0
Celtics 17-23-012-9-00-0-05-12-00-2-02-4-03-3-06-5-03-6-0

Team Total Records (TT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Magic 1h19-23-08-6-01-6-05-4-05-7-02-6-03-5-05-5-03-5-0
Magic 21-21-09-5-02-5-02-7-08-4-03-5-04-4-05-5-03-5-0
Celtics 1h19-21-07-14-00-0-011-6-01-1-03-3-05-1-07-4-03-6-0
Celtics 14-26-07-14-00-0-07-10-00-2-02-4-02-4-06-5-01-8-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Magic 1h20-22-06-8-02-5-02-7-010-2-03-5-03-5-05-5-03-5-0
Magic 17-24-17-7-01-6-02-6-17-5-04-4-02-5-17-3-01-7-0
Celtics 1h17-23-08-13-00-0-09-8-00-2-03-3-03-3-04-7-05-4-0
Celtics 20-20-013-8-00-0-07-10-00-2-02-4-02-4-07-4-05-4-0


ATS Range Records
TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Magic1-1-0 (50%)2-1-0 (66.7%)2-7-1 (22.2%)5-3-0 (62.5%)4-5-0 (44.4%)6-2-0 (75%)2-0-0 (100%)
Celtics0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-2-0 (0%)4-0-0 (100%)2-7-0 (22.2%)10-15-0 (40%)