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Our Baller Exclusive NBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Celtics (-6.5) a 58.5-33.4% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 209.5 around 74.5-68.3% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Celtics have a 69.4% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 74.5% chance of going over the total.


Mavericks Situational Notes
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Systems
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Celtics Situational Notes
Well-rested (two or more days of rest)
In-season revenge
Double digit, in-season revenge
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller Systems
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Mavericks Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/17BOSDAL +6.5
BOS -6.5
209.5DAL---
6/14DAL [ 122 ]DAL +1.5
BOS -1.5
210.5BOS [ 84 ]+38+39.5-4.5
6/12DAL [ 99 ]DAL -3
BOS +3
213.5BOS [ 106 ]-7-10-8.5
6/9BOS [ 105 ]DAL +6.5
BOS -6.5
215DAL [ 98 ]-7-0.5-12
6/6BOS [ 107 ]DAL +6.5
BOS -6.5
215DAL [ 89 ]-18-11.5-19
5/30MIN [ 103 ]DAL +4.5
MIN -4.5
209.5DAL [ 124 ]+21+25.5+17.5
5/28DAL [ 100 ]DAL -1.5
MIN +1.5
210.5MIN [ 105 ]-5-6.5-5.5
5/26DAL [ 116 ]DAL -2.5
MIN +2.5
207.5MIN [ 107 ]+9+6.5+15.5
5/24MIN [ 108 ]DAL +5.5
MIN -5.5
207DAL [ 109 ]+1+6.5+10
5/22MIN [ 105 ]DAL +4
MIN -4
207DAL [ 108 ]+3+7+6

Celtics Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/17BOSBOS -6.5
DAL +6.5
209.5DAL---
6/14DAL [ 122 ]BOS -1.5
DAL +1.5
210.5BOS [ 84 ]-38-39.5-4.5
6/12DAL [ 99 ]BOS +3
DAL -3
213.5BOS [ 106 ]+7+10-8.5
6/9BOS [ 105 ]BOS -6.5
DAL +6.5
215DAL [ 98 ]+7+0.5-12
6/6BOS [ 107 ]BOS -6.5
DAL +6.5
215DAL [ 89 ]+18+11.5-19
5/27IND [ 102 ]BOS -7.5
IND +7.5
222.5BOS [ 105 ]+3-4.5-15.5
5/25IND [ 111 ]BOS -7.5
IND +7.5
222.5BOS [ 114 ]+3-4.5+2.5
5/23BOS [ 126 ]BOS -9
IND +9
225IND [ 110 ]+16+7+11
5/21BOS [ 133 ]BOS -10
IND +10
221.5IND [ 128 ]+5-5+39.5
5/15BOS [ 113 ]BOS -14.5
CLE +14.5
204.5CLE [ 98 ]+15+0.5+6.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
6/17BOSBOS -6.5
DAL +6.5
209.5DAL--------
6/14DAL [ 122 ]BOS -1.5
DAL +1.5
210.5BOS [ 84 ]-38-39.5-4.5111.290.7131.7-41206
6/12DAL [ 99 ]BOS +3
DAL -3
213.5BOS [ 106 ]+7+10-8.5108.3117.4109.77.8205
6/9BOS [ 105 ]BOS -6.5
DAL +6.5
215DAL [ 98 ]+7+0.5-12111.2113.3105.87.6203
6/6BOS [ 107 ]BOS -6.5
DAL +6.5
215DAL [ 89 ]+18+11.5-19109.4117.497.619.7196
3/1BOS [ 138 ]BOS -10
DAL +10
235.5DAL [ 110 ]+28+18+12.5117.2141.3112.628.7248
1/22DAL [ 110 ]BOS -2.5
DAL +2.5
240BOS [ 119 ]+9+6.5-11120.6118.4109.59229
1/5DAL [ 95 ]BOS -3
DAL +3
231.5BOS [ 124 ]+29+26-12.5116.8127.397.629.8219
11/23BOS [ 125 ]BOS -6
DAL +6
221DAL [ 112 ]+13+7+16117.8127.3114.113.2237


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mavericks 1h10-9-24-3-21-0-01-1-04-5-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 13-85-41-01-16-30-00-00-00-0
Celtics 1h13-3-28-0-20-0-05-2-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 15-38-20-06-11-00-00-00-00-0

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mavericks 1h10-11-03-6-01-0-01-1-05-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 12-8-14-5-01-0-01-1-06-2-10-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 1h10-8-05-5-00-0-04-3-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 9-7-25-3-20-0-03-4-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mavericks 1h8-13-03-6-00-1-00-2-05-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 9-12-04-5-00-1-01-1-04-5-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 1h7-10-14-5-10-0-03-4-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 8-10-06-4-00-0-02-5-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mavericks 1h7-14-01-8-01-0-01-1-04-5-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 10-11-04-5-01-0-01-1-04-5-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 1h10-8-07-3-00-0-03-4-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 8-10-06-4-00-0-01-6-01-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mavericks 1h9-12-03-6-00-1-01-1-05-4-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Mavericks 9-12-06-3-00-1-01-1-02-7-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 1h8-10-04-6-00-0-04-3-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0
Celtics 8-10-05-5-00-0-03-4-00-1-00-0-00-0-00-0-00-0-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Celtics0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)0-1-0 (0%)2-0-0 (100%)3-3-0 (50%)5-3-0 (62.5%)
Mavericks0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)5-3-0 (62.5%)2-2-0 (50%)4-4-0 (50%)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)