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Updated: 10/31/25 8:10 p.m.
8:00 p.m.
Las Vegas Aces @ Phoenix Mercury
Aces: 38-17 (69.1%)
Mercury: 32-22 (59.3%)
Line: +2.5
Total: 164.0
Open: +2.5
Open: 163.5
Notes
Aces
Situational Factor(s)
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)
Baller System(s)
Playoff-specific: Play Under when total is less than previous game and no change in site played
Playoff-specific: Play over in series game when previous game went over and no change in site played
Mercury
Situational Factor(s)
In season revenge
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)
Baller System(s)
Playoff-specific: Play Under when total is less than previous game and no change in site played
Playoff-specific: Play over when a road team or underdog is off a loss as a home favorite
Playoff-specific: Play over in series game when previous game went over and no change in site played
Fade a small fav (3.5 or less) off a win
Zig Zag Theory: back team off loss as a home favorite
Baller Index Our Exclusive wnba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.
Spread Recommendation
No Play
Total Recommendation
Under
54.29% probability
View All Algorithms
Notable Trends
View All Records
Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)
Date Season Team Pts Site Opponent Pts Line Total Margin Act Total
10/08/25 2025 Mercury 88 Home Aces 90 -4.0 164.0 +2 178
10/05/25 2025 Mercury 78 Away Aces 91 +2.5 164.0 +13 169
10/03/25 2025 Mercury 86 Away Aces 89 +3.5 161.5 +3 175
08/21/25 2025 Mercury 61 Away Aces 83 +1.0 171.0 +22 144
08/15/25 2025 Mercury 83 Home Aces 86 -4.5 168.5 +3 169
06/29/25 2025 Mercury 81 Home Aces 84 -5.5 168.0 +3 165
06/15/25 2025 Mercury 76 Away Aces 70 -4.5 164.5 -6 146
09/01/24 2024 Mercury 79 Home Aces 97 +4.5 169.5 +18 176
06/13/24 2024 Mercury 99 Home Aces 103 +6.0 169.5 +4 202
05/21/24 2024 Mercury 98 Away Aces 88 +14.0 172.5 -10 186
Mercury as Home (5 games) 86.0 - - 92.0 -0.7 167.9 +6.0 178.0
All Games Avg (10 games) 82.9 - - 88.1 +1.3 167.3 +5.2 171.0
Schedules
Aces Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Line Total Margin Act Total
10/10/25 2025 Aces - away Mercury - -2.5 164.0 - -
10/08/25 2025 Aces 90 away Mercury 88 +4.0 164.0 -2 178
10/05/25 2025 Aces 91 home Mercury 78 -2.5 164.0 -13 169
10/03/25 2025 Aces 89 home Mercury 86 -3.5 161.5 -3 175
09/30/25 2025 Aces 107 home Fever 98 -8.0 158.5 -9 205
09/28/25 2025 Aces 83 away Fever 90 -3.0 161.0 +7 173
09/26/25 2025 Aces 84 away Fever 72 -4.5 162.5 -12 156
09/23/25 2025 Aces 90 home Fever 68 -9.0 164.0 -22 158
09/21/25 2025 Aces 73 home Fever 89 -9.0 165.5 +16 162
09/18/25 2025 Aces 74 home Storm 73 -8.5 159.5 -1 147
09/16/25 2025 Aces 83 away Storm 86 -5.0 162.0 +3 169
Away Games Avg (4 games) 85.0 - - 84.0 -2.1 162.4 -1.0 169.0
All Games Avg (10 games) 86.4 - - 82.8 -4.9 162.3 -3.6 169.2
Mercury Schedule
Date Season Team Points Site Opponent Opp Pts Line Total Margin Act Total
10/10/25 2025 Mercury - home Aces - +2.5 164.0 - -
10/08/25 2025 Mercury 88 home Aces 90 -4.0 164.0 +2 178
10/05/25 2025 Mercury 78 away Aces 91 +2.5 164.0 +13 169
10/03/25 2025 Mercury 86 away Aces 89 +3.5 161.5 +3 175
09/30/25 2025 Mercury away Lynx - - 0 0
09/28/25 2025 Mercury 86 home Lynx 81 -4.5 155.5 -5 167
09/26/25 2025 Mercury 84 home Lynx 76 +4.0 159.0 -8 160
09/23/25 2025 Mercury 89 away Lynx 83 +7.0 159.0 -6 172
09/21/25 2025 Mercury 69 away Lynx 82 +9.5 159.0 +13 151
09/19/25 2025 Mercury 79 home Liberty 73 -2.5 155.5 -6 152
09/17/25 2025 Mercury 86 away Liberty 60 +4.5 159.5 -26 146
Home Games Avg (4 games) 84.3 - - 80.0 -1.8 158.5 -4.3 164.3
All Games Avg (10 games) 74.5 - - 72.5 +2.2 159.7 -2.0 147.0
Team Comparison Stats Click to load