WNBA Betting | themoneyballer.com

NBA WNBA NFL MLB

Updated: 10/31/25 8:10 p.m.

8:00 p.m.
Las Vegas Aces @ Phoenix Mercury

Aces: 38-17 (69.1%)

Mercury: 32-22 (59.3%)

Line: +2.5

Total: 164.0

Open: +2.5

Open: 163.5

Notes

Aces

Situational Factor(s)

Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller System(s)

Playoff-specific: Play Under when total is less than previous game and no change in site played

Playoff-specific: Play over in series game when previous game went over and no change in site played

Mercury

Situational Factor(s)

In season revenge

Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller System(s)

Playoff-specific: Play Under when total is less than previous game and no change in site played

Playoff-specific: Play over when a road team or underdog is off a loss as a home favorite

Playoff-specific: Play over in series game when previous game went over and no change in site played

Fade a small fav (3.5 or less) off a win

Zig Zag Theory: back team off loss as a home favorite

Baller Index Our Exclusive wnba Baller Index is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions essentially look for teams that have over- or under-performed, in terms of points scored, relative to what would be expected based on their underlying metrics and who might be in for regression. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it can be a good place to start when thinking about a particular matchup.

Spread Recommendation

No Play

Total Recommendation

Under

54.29% probability

View All Algorithms

Algorithm	Season	Recent	Site
Basic + Advanced Analysis	Lean Aces	Lean Aces	Lean Aces
Schedule Analysis	Lean Aces	Lean Aces	Lean Aces
Differentials	Lean Aces	Lean Aces	Lean Aces
Basic Stat Comp	Lean Aces	-	-
Net Ratings + Market Analysis	Lean Aces	-	-
Cover Summary	No Bet	No Bet	No Bet
Paint Stat Focus	Lean Under	Under	Under
Opponent Defense	Lean Under	Lean Under	Lean Over
Norms and Averages	Lean Over	-	-
Total Summary	No Bet	Under	Under
OVERALL	No Spread Edge \| Under

Notable Trends

The Aces are 83.3% (5-1) (L14) to the over/under away

The Aces are 80% (4-1) (L14) to the over/under as an away fav

View All Records

Mercury (Home)

The Mercury are 50.9% (28-27) against the spread

The Mercury are 53.6% (15-13) against the spread at home

The Mercury are 54.5% (12-10) against the spread as a dog

The Mercury are 62.5% (5-3) against the spread as a home dog

The Mercury are 47.3% (26-29) to the over/under

The Mercury are 46.4% (13-15) to the over/under at home

The Mercury are 40.9% (9-13) to the over/under as a dog

The Mercury are 37.5% (3-5) to the over/under as a home dog

The Mercury are 46.2% (6-7) (L14) against the spread

The Mercury are 42.9% (3-4) (L14) against the spread at home

The Mercury are 50% (4-4) (L14) against the spread as a dog

The Mercury are 33.3% (1-2) (L14) against the spread as a home dog

The Mercury are 61.5% (8-5) (L14) to the over/under

The Mercury are 57.1% (4-3) (L14) to the over/under at home

The Mercury are 62.5% (5-3) (L14) to the over/under as a dog

The Mercury are 66.7% (2-1) (L14) to the over/under as a home dog

Aces (Away)

The Aces are 53.6% (30-26) against the spread

The Aces are 55.6% (15-12) against the spread away

The Aces are 54.8% (23-19) against the spread as a fav

The Aces are 55.6% (10-8) against the spread as an away fav

The Aces are 51.8% (29-27) to the over/under

The Aces are 48.1% (13-14) to the over/under away

The Aces are 52.4% (22-20) to the over/under as a fav

The Aces are 50% (9-9) to the over/under as an away fav

The Aces are 64.3% (9-5) (L14) against the spread

The Aces are 66.7% (4-2) (L14) against the spread away

The Aces are 61.5% (8-5) (L14) against the spread as a fav

The Aces are 60% (3-2) (L14) against the spread as an away fav

The Aces are 64.3% (9-5) (L14) to the over/under

The Aces are 83.3% (5-1) (L14) to the over/under away

The Aces are 61.5% (8-5) (L14) to the over/under as a fav

The Aces are 80% (4-1) (L14) to the over/under as an away fav

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Date	Season	Team	Pts	Site	Opponent	Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/08/25	2025	Mercury	88	Home	Aces	90	-4.0	164.0	+2	178
10/05/25	2025	Mercury	78	Away	Aces	91	+2.5	164.0	+13	169
10/03/25	2025	Mercury	86	Away	Aces	89	+3.5	161.5	+3	175
08/21/25	2025	Mercury	61	Away	Aces	83	+1.0	171.0	+22	144
08/15/25	2025	Mercury	83	Home	Aces	86	-4.5	168.5	+3	169
06/29/25	2025	Mercury	81	Home	Aces	84	-5.5	168.0	+3	165
06/15/25	2025	Mercury	76	Away	Aces	70	-4.5	164.5	-6	146
09/01/24	2024	Mercury	79	Home	Aces	97	+4.5	169.5	+18	176
06/13/24	2024	Mercury	99	Home	Aces	103	+6.0	169.5	+4	202
05/21/24	2024	Mercury	98	Away	Aces	88	+14.0	172.5	-10	186
Mercury as Home (5 games)			86.0	-	-	92.0	-0.7	167.9	+6.0	178.0
All Games Avg (10 games)			82.9	-	-	88.1	+1.3	167.3	+5.2	171.0

Schedules

Aces Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/10/25	2025	Aces	-	away	Mercury	-	-2.5	164.0	-	-
10/08/25	2025	Aces	90	away	Mercury	88	+4.0	164.0	-2	178
10/05/25	2025	Aces	91	home	Mercury	78	-2.5	164.0	-13	169
10/03/25	2025	Aces	89	home	Mercury	86	-3.5	161.5	-3	175
09/30/25	2025	Aces	107	home	Fever	98	-8.0	158.5	-9	205
09/28/25	2025	Aces	83	away	Fever	90	-3.0	161.0	+7	173
09/26/25	2025	Aces	84	away	Fever	72	-4.5	162.5	-12	156
09/23/25	2025	Aces	90	home	Fever	68	-9.0	164.0	-22	158
09/21/25	2025	Aces	73	home	Fever	89	-9.0	165.5	+16	162
09/18/25	2025	Aces	74	home	Storm	73	-8.5	159.5	-1	147
09/16/25	2025	Aces	83	away	Storm	86	-5.0	162.0	+3	169
Away Games Avg (4 games)			85.0	-	-	84.0	-2.1	162.4	-1.0	169.0
All Games Avg (10 games)			86.4	-	-	82.8	-4.9	162.3	-3.6	169.2

Mercury Schedule

Date	Season	Team	Points	Site	Opponent	Opp Pts	Line	Total	Margin	Act Total
10/10/25	2025	Mercury	-	home	Aces	-	+2.5	164.0	-	-
10/08/25	2025	Mercury	88	home	Aces	90	-4.0	164.0	+2	178
10/05/25	2025	Mercury	78	away	Aces	91	+2.5	164.0	+13	169
10/03/25	2025	Mercury	86	away	Aces	89	+3.5	161.5	+3	175
09/30/25	2025	Mercury		away	Lynx		-	-	0	0
09/28/25	2025	Mercury	86	home	Lynx	81	-4.5	155.5	-5	167
09/26/25	2025	Mercury	84	home	Lynx	76	+4.0	159.0	-8	160
09/23/25	2025	Mercury	89	away	Lynx	83	+7.0	159.0	-6	172
09/21/25	2025	Mercury	69	away	Lynx	82	+9.5	159.0	+13	151
09/19/25	2025	Mercury	79	home	Liberty	73	-2.5	155.5	-6	152
09/17/25	2025	Mercury	86	away	Liberty	60	+4.5	159.5	-26	146
Home Games Avg (4 games)			84.3	-	-	80.0	-1.8	158.5	-4.3	164.3
All Games Avg (10 games)			74.5	-	-	72.5	+2.2	159.7	-2.0	147.0

8:00 p.m.
Las Vegas Aces @ Phoenix Mercury

Notes

Aces

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Mercury

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Spread Recommendation

Total Recommendation

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Notable Trends

View All Records

Mercury (Home)

Aces (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Schedules

Aces Schedule

Mercury Schedule

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

Premium Content

8:00 p.m. Las Vegas Aces @ Phoenix Mercury

Notes

Aces

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Mercury

Situational Factor(s)

Baller System(s)

Spread Recommendation

Total Recommendation

View All Algorithms

Algorithm Breakdown

Notable Trends

View All Records

Mercury (Home)

Aces (Away)

Past Matchups (Last 2 Seasons, Max 10)

Schedules

Aces Schedule

Mercury Schedule

Team Comparison Stats Click to load

8:00 p.m.
Las Vegas Aces @ Phoenix Mercury