Category: Betting

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The stakes are massive for both teams in this matchup. For Cincinnati, it’s a must-win scenario to keep their playoff hopes alive. With the Bengals playing on Saturday, they can put pressure on the Broncos and Dolphins, who take the field on Sunday. Their path is clear: win and hope both those teams lose to punch their ticket to the postseason.

As for Pittsburgh, while their AFC North title hopes hinge on a Ravens loss earlier in the day, their focus remains sharp. A win locks up the No. 5 seed and sets up a favorable wild-card matchup with the Texans, rather than a daunting rematch against the Ravens. Mike Tomlin has already signaled that his team will give full effort, regardless of Baltimore’s result.

The first meeting between these teams in Cincinnati was a high-scoring thriller that Pittsburgh won, piling up a season-high 520 yards of offense. While Cincinnati has won four straight since then, they’ve faced a string of underwhelming offenses, and their defense remains suspect. Adding George Pickens back into the mix makes Pittsburgh’s offense even more dangerous in this rematch.

The Steelers have been a reliable play as home underdogs under Tomlin, boasting a 19-11 straight-up record and an even better 20-9-1 ATS in this spot. They’ve also excelled this season on extended rest, going 3-0 both SU and ATS, a situation they find themselves in after playing on Christmas. Tomlin’s divisional underdog trends remain elite: 26-10-2 ATS (72%), with a 22-16 SU mark in those games. He hasn’t finished a season under .500 ATS in this spot since 2014 and is 2-1 ATS in 2024.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s struggles in road primetime games are well-documented, with a dismal 10-43 all-time record. Their defensive vulnerabilities were exposed in the previous matchup, and it’s hard to see them holding up any better this time around.

🏈AFC North rematches where the home team won the last matchup between each other while being on the road are 21-2 SU since 2007 as long as the home team winning percentage is above .250 and the total is set between 41.0 & 49.0

📝The Pittsburgh Steelers (0.625) will host the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday having won the last matchup 44-38 in Cincinnati on December 1st. The total is currently set at 48.0

🕢8:00 PM EST

📈Pittsburgh are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games when playing at home against Cincinnati.

📉Cincinnati are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference North division.

📊The Steelers are 6-1 SU when scoring 22 or more points this season. The Bengals have allowed 26.1 PPG this season – 4th worst

📊The Steelers are 6-1 SU when allowing less than 3 sacks this season. The Bengals have averaged 2.0 sacks per game over that time span – 6th worst

📊The Bengals are 1-4 against the spread vs top 10 run offenses this season – T-7th-worst in NFL. The Steelers are ranked 10th run offense in the league.

📊The Bengals are 2-11 SU when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season – 4th-worst in NFL. The Steelers have only been intercepted 6 times this season – 6th best in NFL.

🩹Tee Higgins (WR) and Chase Brown (RB) are currently questionable for Saturday’s game.

🎯Najee Harris has a TD in 5 straight games vs CIN

🎯Najee Harris has 53+ receiving yards in 5 straight home games.

🎯Najee Harris has over 11.5 rushing attempts – over 45.5 rushing yards – over 12.5 yards longest rush in 10 straight home games.

🔑With Pittsburgh playing for critical playoff seeding and carrying a strong track record at home, this line feels mispriced. The wrong team might be favored here.

✅Active on Pittsburgh Steelers ML

The Denver Nuggets face the San Antonio Spurs tonight in a matchup that offers plenty of intrigue for basketball fans and bettors alike. Denver is laying 3.5 points on the road, and there’s strong reason to believe they’ll cover that number convincingly.

The Nuggets, sitting atop the Western Conference standings, are a team built on consistency and led by the two-time MVP Nikola Jokić. Despite a narrow 113-110 loss to the Spurs just days ago, this game sets up as a prime bounce-back opportunity for Denver. Jokić, averaging a stunning 31 points, 12 rebounds, and 9 assists per game, remains the engine of this offense, capable of exploiting mismatches at every position. Against the Spurs’ porous defense, ranked near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency, Jokić is likely to dominate the paint and control the pace of the game.

Another reason to lean toward Denver is their strong record after a loss. The Nuggets have thrived in situations requiring adjustments, thanks to head coach Michael Malone’s strategic prowess. Under his guidance, Denver has covered the spread in 62% of their games following a defeat over the past two seasons. The recent loss to San Antonio also came under atypical circumstances, with Denver shooting just 29% from three-point range, well below their season average of 37%. A return to form from beyond the arc should tilt the scales heavily in their favor tonight.

On the defensive side, the Nuggets have the personnel to limit San Antonio’s offensive focal point, Victor Wembanyama. While the rookie phenom has been sensational, averaging nearly 26 points per game, he’s faced struggles against elite defenders. Denver’s Aaron Gordon, should he play tonight, offers the physicality and agility needed to challenge Wembanyama’s shot creation. Even if Gordon remains sidelined, the Nuggets’ defensive schemes have been effective at neutralizing opposing big men, relying on rotations that force the ball out of their hands.

The Spurs, for all their excitement around Wembanyama, remain a rebuilding team prone to inconsistency. With a 7-14 record as moneyline underdogs this season, they’ve struggled to perform against elite competition. Their defense has been a glaring weakness, allowing 118.7 points per game, and they’ve failed to contain dynamic offenses like Denver’s. While San Antonio’s young roster is undoubtedly improving, they remain outmatched against the discipline and execution of the Nuggets.

Finally, there’s a psychological edge in Denver’s favor. The Nuggets, as defending NBA champions, thrive under the spotlight and rarely drop back-to-back games against inferior competition. Their veteran experience contrasts sharply with the youthful Spurs, who are still finding their identity in high-pressure moments.

🏀In conference back-to-back games when the now away team lost the last game by 2 to 17 points margin facing an opponent with a winning percentage below .660 are a stellar 43-0 ATS since 2007 when the spread is between -3.5 & 7.0

📝The Denver Nuggets visits the San Antonio Spurs (.529) having lost yesterday by 3 points to the same Spurs. They are now favored by -2.5 points.

🕢8:00 PM EST

📈Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in the 2nd game of a back-to-back.

📊The Nuggets have averaged 54.9 points in the paint per game since the start of the 2023-24 season – 2nd-highest in the NBA.

📊The Spurs have allowed 52.7 points in the paint per game since the start of the 2023-24 season – 4th-worst in the NBA.

🎯Russell Westbrook has over 14.5 points in his last 5 games on the road (18.2 avg) and San Antonio allowed over 14.5 points to starting PGs in 4 of last 5 at home.

🎯Jeremy Sochan has under 1.5 blocks+steals in his last 5 games. Denver held starting PFs to under 1.5 blocks+steals in their last 5 games.

🗑️1st basket: Victor Wembanyama +425

🔪Sharp money is on San Antonio ML (29% of the public vs 65% of the money)

🔑Denver’s ability to rebound, both figuratively and literally, sets them up to not only win but to comfortably cover the -3.5 spread. With Jokić at the helm, a refined shooting performance, and a more cohesive defensive effort, the Nuggets are primed to reassert their dominance in San Antonio tonight.

✅Active on Denver Nuggets -3.0 (ATS)

The Edmonton Oilers and Seattle Kraken meet tonight in what could be a lower-scoring affair, with several underlying trends pointing toward the total staying under 6.5 goals. Both teams have shown tendencies in recent weeks that lean toward controlled, defensive hockey rather than high-scoring shootouts.

The Oilers have displayed a renewed focus on defensive structure, climbing into the league’s top ten in goals against over their past ten games. This shift has helped them limit opponents’ scoring opportunities and has resulted in fewer high-scoring contests. Coupled with their inconsistent offensive output, especially against disciplined defensive teams like the Kraken, Edmonton’s games have often struggled to reach inflated goal totals.

The Kraken, known for their methodical, grind-it-out style of play, complement this narrative. Their system emphasizes limiting high-danger chances, and while their scoring has been opportunistic, they rarely engage in wide-open games. Over their recent stretch, Seattle has been involved in several matchups where pace and shot quality have been tightly controlled, contributing to games that trend under the projected totals.

Fatigue could also play a role tonight. Edmonton is coming off a game just two days ago, and the quick turnaround often forces teams to prioritize a more cautious and defensive style. This approach is likely to slow the tempo, reducing transition opportunities and overall scoring chances. The Kraken, who thrive in low-event hockey, are adept at capitalizing on this scenario, further tipping the scales toward a lower total.

🏒Home teams priced between -120 & +200 when the total is set at 6.5 are 12-0 to the UNDER when playing vs a team in the same division.

📝The Seattle Kraken hosts the Edmonton Oilers being priced at +140 with a total at 6.5

🕢10:00 PM EST

📈The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Edmonton’s last 7 games.

🥅Calvin Pickard (66) / Philipp Grubauer (12)

🎯Zach Hyman has a point in 8 straight divisional games.

🔑Considering these factors, the teams’ tendencies toward lower-scoring games, the Oilers’ recent defensive performance, and potential fatigue from back-to-back games, it is plausible to be confident that the total goals scored in tonight’s matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and the Seattle Kraken will stay below 6.5.

✅Active on Edmonton Oilers @ Seattle Kraken UNDER 6.5

Neither team has played since late November, but Liberty comes into this matchup at a major disadvantage. Five starters, including quarterback Kaidon Salter, arguably the engine of their offense, have entered the transfer portal.

Buffalo, on the other hand, is in a far better position. The Bulls have had minimal roster turnover, with only two players in the portal, one of whom is the kicker, who still plans to finish the season. Being at full strength gives Buffalo a clear edge in this game.

If everything fell perfectly into place for Liberty, they’d have a shot at winning. But that’s a big “if.” Asking a quarterback with no career starts to succeed behind a backup-heavy offensive line is a tall order.

Buffalo isn’t without flaws, but they’ve got the tools to handle this matchup. Players like Dolac, Stewart, and linebacker Dion Crawford provide a solid defensive foundation. And while defensive back Marquis Cooper’s status is uncertain after missing the season finale, the Bulls’ defensive unit is still capable of dictating this game.

🏈Winning record teams averaging less than 43.5 points/game on a 2+ games winning streak are 19-1-1 ATS since 2014 when their spread is >-10.0 and the total more than 46.0

📝Buffalo Bulls receives the Liberty Flames being on a 2 games winning streak, favored by 3 points and a total set at 50.5

🕢11:00 AM EST

📈Bulls are 2-0 ATS vs teams allowing less than 25 points/game.

📉Liberty has failed to cover the spread in 4 of the last 5 non-conference games they played.

🎯Ryan Burger has under 152.5 passing yards & under 1.5 TD passes in his last 6 games.

🔑The game will likely be controlled on the ground, especially with Liberty’s offensive limitations. In the end, I see Buffalo covering the -4.5 spread comfortably.

✅Active on Buffalo Bulls -4.5 (ATS)

📊04/01/2025 SYSTEMS RECAP⬇️

🏈21-2 NFL ML • 8 wins streak🔥 | Pittsburgh Steelers ML

🏀43-0 NBA ATS • WHAT ?🤯🔥🔥 | Denver Nuggets -3.5

🏒12-0 NHL O/U 🔥 | Edmonton Oilers @ Seattle Kraken U6.5

🏈19-1-1 NCAAF ATS • Active since 2014 | Buffalo Bulls -4.5

Thanks for reading today’s insights!

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Editor’s note: Today’s article is a free preview of Dominic’s content. Baller Access members get access to Dominic’s content. Shop membership plans here and use coupon code ‘DOM50’ to get 50% off your first membership. Utilize our free 3-day trial!