Category: Betting
📊Active Systems for February 25th
🏀The Phoenix Suns are 0-9 ATS as an underdog, after a game in which they shot greater than 44.7% from the field.
❓When the Suns shoot well in one game, the market may overvalue them in the next, but as underdogs, they often fail to maintain that efficiency against tougher competition. This suggests their shooting success doesn’t carry over, especially in underdog spots.
📊The Memphis Grizzlies are 13-1 ATS this season as favorites with a total above 236.0
❓The Grizzlies thrive in fast-paced matchups where scoring is high because their athleticism, depth, and offensive efficiency allow them to outpace opponents. When the total is set high, it often plays into their strengths, leading to strong ATS performances.
📊The Memphis Grizzlies are 14-0 SU in their last 14 home games when facing a team under .500. They have outscored their opponents by an average of +17.1 points per game in this situation.
🕢8:00 PM EST
📈Memphis are 6-0 ATS when their spread is between -7.0 & -10.0
📈Memphis are 2-0 ATS this season vs Phoenix.
📉Suns are 6-13 ATS vs teams above .550
🎯Ja Morant has 26+ points in 4 straight games vs the Suns. (25+ pts @ +145)
🎯Desmond Bane has 20+ points in 4 straight games vs the Suns. (Over 19.5 @ -110)
🎯Jaren Jackson Jr has 21+ points in 10 straight home games as a favorite. (20+ pts @ -170)
⚠️💲Smart Money detected coming in on Phoenix Suns ATS
✅Active on Memphis Grizzlies -7.5
🏀The Boston Celtics are 13-0 ATS in revenge matchups against teams holding opponents to under 47% shooting. They are also 13-0 SU in these games, winning by an average margin of +21.5 PPG.
❓Boston adjusts well after a loss, particularly against defensive-minded teams. Their elite offense and game-planning allow them to exploit weaknesses the second time around, leading to dominant performances.
📊Boston are 8-0 ATS in revenge spots against teams that scored 7+ transition points in their previous meeting. In these situations, they are 8-0 SU, dominating by an average of +25.9 PPG.
❓When an opponent scores efficiently in transition, Boston responds by tightening their defense and controlling the pace, preventing easy fast-break points and overwhelming teams with their offensive firepower.
📊The Toronto Raptors are 0-10 ATS against teams without a rest advantage after previously covering by 13+ points while allowing fewer than 13 fast-break points. In these games, they are also 0-10 SU, losing by an average of -17 PPG.
❓When the Raptors play well and limit transition scoring in one game, they tend to be overvalued in the next. They struggle to maintain consistency, particularly against teams that have had equal rest, leading to significant ATS and SU losses.
🕢7:00 PM EST
🎯Jayson Tatum has a double-double in 3 straight games. (To record a double-double @ +145)
🎯Jaylen Brown has 6+ rebounds in 4 straight games vs Toronto. (Over 5.5 rebounds @ -105)
✅Active on Boston Celtics -11.0
🏒Favorites who won their last game scoring less than 3 goals and are less rested than their conference opponent are 29-4 SU this season when their opponent is below .500 and is on a 1+ game losing streak having lost their last game scoring 3 or more goals.
❓This trend highlights a strong situational edge for disciplined, low-scoring favorites facing losing teams on a skid that just put up offensive numbers but still lost. The combination of fatigue, poor form, and false confidence from their recent goal-scoring effort makes the underdog vulnerable. Meanwhile, the favorite, despite their prior low-scoring output, is likely a well-structured team that controls play and capitalizes on the opponent’s weaknesses.
🕢7:00 PM EST
📈Leafs are 25-11 SU vs teams allowing more than 2.9 goals per game.
📉Bruins are 9-18 SU as underdogs.
🥅Anthony Stolarz (83) / Jeremy Swayman (29)
🎯Auston Matthews has a goal in 7 of his last 8 games vs east. conference teams. (Anytime goalscorer @ +110)
🎯Mitch Marner has a point in 10 straight divisional games. (1+ point @ -235)
✅Active on Toronto Maple Leafs ML
🏒Home favorites on rest advantage facing a team from the same division are 40-5 SU this season. Teams are winning those games by an average of +2.4 goals per game.
📊Since 2020, teams facing the Pittsburgh Penguins being at home for 3+ games in a row are 7-0 SU.
📊Teams playing against the Penguins since 2022 are 17-2 SU when they are on 2+ days rest and have allowed 11+ giveaways in the previous matchup between both teams.
🕢7:00 PM EST
📈Flyers are 9-3 SU as home favorites.
📉Penguins are 8-17 SU as road underdogs.
🥅Alex Nedeljkovic (33) / Samuel Ersson (54)
✅Active on Philadelphia Flyers ML
🏀Home favorites with a spread between -3.5 & -9.0 who was an underdog in the previous matchup between the same teams are 19-0-3 to the OVER this season when the total is set between 216.0 & 235.0
📊Away teams priced between +140 & +189 playing a non-conference team are 20-2-2 to the OVER this season when the total is above 221.0
✅Active on Milwaukee Bucks @ Houston Rockets OVER 227.0
🏀Memphis Grizzlies -7.5 (1.5u)
🏀Boston Celtics -11.0 (1.0u)
🏒Toronto Maple Leafs ML (0.5u)
🏒Philadelphia Flyers ML (0.5u)
🏀Milwaukee Bucks @ Houston Rockets o227.0 (0.5u)
🏀 The Boston Celtics are 13-0 ATS in revenge games against teams that allow less than 47% shooting.
🏀 The Charlotte Hornets are 12-0 to the UNDER when the total is greater than 217.5, in games where they are avenging a loss of 12 or more points.
🏀 The Orlando Magic are 12-0 to the UNDER at home in the regular season, against teams they have lost to in consecutive meetings.
🏀 The San Antonio Spurs are 0-12 ATS against teams with fewer than two days of rest, following a game in which they allowed fewer than 17 made three-pointers.
🏀 The Milwaukee Bucks are 0-10 ATS as a road underdog between +2 and +9.5 against Western Conference opponents, when they have fewer than seven days of rest.
🏀 Marquette is 16-0 to the UNDER following a game in which they allowed more than 74 points, with a spread of fewer than 5 points.
🏀 West Virginia is 13-0 to the UNDER against teams that allow less than 34% shooting from three-point range, when they have fewer than four days of rest.
🏀 Iowa is 0-13 ATS as an underdog of fewer than 12.5 points in games with totals greater than 159.5, against teams that allow less than 43.5% shooting.
🏀 Baylor is 0-14 ATS as an underdog against teams that average less than 51% shooting, following a game in which they were the favorite.
🏀 Saint Louis is 0-11 ATS in revenge games against teams they shot less than 43.6% against in a previous matchup.
🏀 Wisconsin is 9-0 to the OVER on non-neutral courts when coming off a single-digit loss as a favorite.
🏀 Iowa State is 9-0 to the UNDER against teams with fewer than four days of rest, who they defeated by 10 or more points in a previous meeting.
🏀 Duke is 9-0 ATS as a road favorite when the total is greater than 135.5.
🏀 Cincinnati is 10-0 to the UNDER with spreads of fewer than 11.5 points, when coming off a game in which they made 13 or more free throws.
🏀 Tennessee is 10-0 to the OVER against rested opponents, when the spread is greater than -36.5 and they are coming off a game in which the spread was within 3 points of a pick’em.
🏀 Louisville is 10-0 to the UNDER as a conference favorite, following a game in which they allowed more than 80 points.
🏀 Northwestern is 10-0 to the OVER when the total is less than 142.5.
🏀 Georgia is 8-0 to the UNDER in revenge games, after going over the total in back-to-back games.
🏀 Mississippi State is 0-8 ATS in conference games, following a game in which they made at least seven three-pointers and recorded 12 or more turnovers.
🏀 Missouri is 0-8 ATS as a favorite, after a loss in which they scored more than 4.5 delta points.
🏀 Richmond is 0-9 ATS as a rested underdog, following a game in which they allowed at least seven made three-pointers on 31.5% shooting from deep.
🏀 Pittsburgh is 0-8 ATS as a favorite when the total is less than 152.5.
🏀 Missouri State is 0-8 ATS as a favorite, after a loss in which they scored more than 4.5 delta points.
🏀 Prairie View is 7-0-1 to the UNDER as a favorite when favored by fewer than 7.5 points.
❓ RLM are identified at a certain time during the day. While I report these plays later in the day, some lines may have already moved back. The key takeaway is the early sharp movement which focuses on understanding where the sharp money hit, even if the line has since adjusted. These can still be considered, even if the numbers changed.
⏪🏀”A” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of VCU Rams -15.5
(Spread went from -14.5 to -15.5 despite Richmond +15.5 receiving 60% of public bets and 75% of the money).
🔪WAS WIZARDS +3.0 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪SAC/CHA u232.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪KANSAS -6.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪PRAIRIE/MVSU u140.0 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
YESTERDAY’S RECAP
🏀Charlotte Hornets +11.0 (1u) ❌
🏀⏪⚠️Los Angeles Clippers +1.5 (1u) ❌
🏀UNC Wilmington -3.0 (0.5u) ✅
🏒Los Angeles Kings ML (0.5u) ✅
🏀Minnesota Timberwolves +11.5 (0.5u) ✅
🏀Chicago Bulls +4.0 (0.5u) ✅
🏀⏪📈Atlanta Hawks -1.0 (0.25u) ✅
🏀⏪Eastern Kentucky Colonels ML (0.25u) ❌
Thanks for reading today’s insights!
If you found value in this post, don’t forget to like and share my page with fellow sports enthusiasts. Let’s continue turning data into dollars, one game at a time.
See you tomorrow with more winning systems 🏆
NBA Money Baller Report – Sunday, Feb 23
📊Active Systems for February 23rd
🏀Home favorites (Pacers) between -3.5 & -9.0 who was an underdog in their last game are 18-0 to the OVER this season when the total is between 216.0 & 235.0 vs a non-conference opponent.
❓This trend suggests that when the Pacers transition from an underdog to a mid-sized home favorite, their games become high-scoring, especially against non-conference teams. This likely works because Pacers games tend to play at a faster pace, and when facing unfamiliar opponents, defensive intensity may dip, leading to more efficient scoring from both sides.
📊Los Angeles Clippers are 9-0-1 to the OVER when avenging a loss as a favorite against Eastern Conference opponents who average more than 10.8 three-pointers made per game.
❓This trend indicates that when the Clippers are seeking revenge, especially against teams that rely on three-point shooting, their games become high-scoring. This works because the Clippers may push the tempo and emphasize offense in rematch scenarios, while high-volume three-point shooting from their opponent contributes to an up-tempo game.
📊Away underdogs (Clippers) between +135 & +189 are 19-2-2 to the OVER this season with totals above 221.0 vs a non-conference opponent.
❓This shows that when the Clippers are in a specific underdog range against non-conference teams, their games consistently go OVER. This works because as an underdog, they may be less focused on defense, while non-conference matchups often create unfamiliar defensive matchups, leading to higher efficiency and scoring pace.
🕢5:00 PM EST
📈Pacers are 13-3-1 to the OVER when the total is set between 229.0 & 232.0
📈The OVER has hit in 8 of their last 9 meetings.
🎯Bennedict Mathurin has 16+ points in 5 straight games.
🎯Kawhi Leonard has 23+ points in 4 straight games in Indiana.
✅Active on Los Angeles Clippers @ Indiana Pacers OVER 230.5
🏀Teams on 1+ days of rest who lost the last matchup between both teams with a spread lower than 11.5 are 22-2 ATS when facing the Atlanta Hawks since 2021.
❓This suggests that teams tend to bounce back strongly against Atlanta when they have rest and a recent loss in the matchup. This works because the Hawks may struggle with adjustments, while rested teams facing a familiar opponent make better strategic changes to cover the spread.
📊Detroit Pistons are 7-0 ATS as a road favorite, against teams averaging more than 24 assists per game.
❓This likely works because Detroit’s defensive schemes might be effective against ball movement-heavy offenses, limiting easy scoring opportunities while capitalizing on transition play.
📊Atlanta Hawks are 0-7 ATS as a conference underdog of fewer than 5.5 points, when facing a team they previously beat as an underdog.
❓This indicates that the Hawks struggle to cover when expected to compete in a tight rematch against teams they previously upset. This likely works because teams that were previously upset come in more motivated and prepared, while Atlanta may not perform as well when they are expected to keep the game close.
🕢6:00 PM EST
📈Pistons are 6-1 ATS as road favorites.
📈The road team has covered the spread in 6 straight games between Detroit and Atlanta.
🎯Cade Cunningham has 6+ rebounds in 3 straight games vs Atlanta. (Over 5.5 @ -135)
🎯Cade Cunningham has 10+ assists in 5 straight road games vs So.Ea. division. (10+ @ -145)
✅Active on Detroit Pistons -3.0
🏒Colorado Avalanche are 27-1 SU since 2021 when they are playing the second game of a back-to-back being favored by at least -140.
🕢6:00 PM EST
📈Avalanche are 5-2 SU in the 2nd game of back-to-back this season.
📉Blues are 1-4 SU in the 2nd game of back-to-back this season.
📉St. Louis has lost 10 straight home games against Colorado.
🥅MacKenzie Blackwood (70) / Jordan Binnington (30)
🎯Jonathan Drouin has a point in 5 straight games vs St.Louis (1+ point @ -130)
✅Active on Colorado Avalanche ML
🏀Temple has gone OVER in 16 straight games and are 21-5 to the OVER this season.
🕢2:00 PM EST
✅Active on Temple Owls @ UAB Blazers OVER 162.5
◼️LAC/IND over 230.5
◼️DETROIT PISTONS -3.0
◼️COLORADO AVALANCHE ML
📊Trend(s) in favor of the team
⏪Reverse Line Movement in favor of the team
🖥️Projected score in favor of the team
📢Consensus in favor of the team
👨🔬Expert pick in favor of the team
💲 Sharp action in favor of the team
💯Stats in favor of the team
🏀🖥️ Orlando Magic are 13-0 ATS against conference opponents they defeated by 20 or more points in a previous meeting.
⏪”B+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Orlando Magic -13.0
(Spread went from -12.0 to -13.0 despite Washington +13.0 receiving 62% of public bets and 54% of the money).
🏀 Milwaukee Bucks have gone OVER in 13 straight games as a single-digit home favorite, when the total is under 239.5 and they are coming off a home win in which they scored fewer than -4 delta points.
🏀 New York Knicks are 12-0-1 to the OVER as a regular season underdog.
🏀 Phoenix Suns have gone UNDER in 12 straight games with fewer than two days of rest, when coming off a game in which their opponent recorded at least 27 assists and made 17 or more three-pointers.
⏪”A+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the UNDER 227.5
(Total went from 228.5 to 227.5 despite the Over receiving 81% of public bets and 82% of the money).
💲Smart Money detected coming in on the UNDER
🏀👨🔬🖥️💯 Oklahoma City Thunder are 10-0 ATS with rest in revenge games.
⚠️💲Smart Money detected coming in on Minnesota +9.0
🏀🖥️📢💯 Cleveland Cavaliers are 9-0 ATS as a favorite of more than -14 points, against a Western Conference opponent they beat in a previous matchup.
🏀💯 Dallas Mavericks have gone OVER in eight straight games as an underdog, against teams averaging fewer than 46 rebounds per game.
🏀🖥️ San Antonio Spurs are 0-11 ATS with fewer than two days of rest as an underdog of fewer than 8.5 points, when facing a team they previously defeated.
🏀💯 Arizona State is 13-0 ATS as a road underdog of 4 or more points, following a loss of at least 8 points.
🏀💯 Creighton is 10-0 ATS following a game in which they committed at least 8 turnovers.
🏀 Rutgers has gone UNDER in 10 straight home games that feature a spread within 3 points of pick’em.
🏀 Marist has gone UNDER in 9 straight games as a favorite of fewer than -4.5 points, with fewer than 4 days of rest.
⏪”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the UNDER 128.5
(Total went from 129.0 to 128.5 despite the Over receiving 77% of public bets and 79% of the money).
💲Smart Money detected coming in on the UNDER
🏀 Manhattan has gone OVER in 7 straight games as a home underdog of fewer than 6.5 points.
⏪”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the OVER 156.5
(Total went from 155.5 to 156.5 despite the Under receiving 79% of public bets and 79% of the money).
❓ RLM are identified at a certain time during the day. While I report these plays later in the day, some lines may have already moved back. The key takeaway is the early sharp movement which focuses on understanding where the sharp money hit, even if the line has since adjusted. These can still be considered, even if the numbers changed.
⏪”A+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Phoenix @ Toronto UNDER 227.5
(Total went from 228.5 to 227.5 despite the Over receiving 81% of public bets and 82% of the money).
💲Smart Money detected coming in on the UNDER
⏪”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Niagara @ Marist UNDER 128.5
(Total went from 129.0 to 128.5 despite the Over receiving 77% of public bets and 79% of the money).
💲Smart Money detected coming in on the UNDER
⏪”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Quinnipiac @ Manhattan OVER 156.5
(Total went from 155.5 to 156.5 despite the Under receiving 79% of public bets and 79% of the money).
⏪”B+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Orlando Magic -13.0
(Spread went from -12.0 to -13.0 despite Washington +13.0 receiving 62% of public bets and 54% of the money).
🔪NYK +8.0 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪DET/ATL o240.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪ST. JOHNS -4.0 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪COLORADO AVS ML is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
🔪WAS/EDM u6.0 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.
Thanks for reading today’s insights!
If you found value in this post, don’t forget to like and share my page with fellow sports enthusiasts. Let’s continue turning data into dollars, one game at a time.
See you tomorrow with more winning systems 🏆
NBA Money Baller Report – Saturday, Feb 22
📊Active Systems for February 22nd
🏀Texas A&M is 10-0 ATS at home against teams averaging more than 74.4 PPG when the spread is within three points of a pick’em.
❓This trend suggests that Texas A&M thrives in tight home matchups against high-scoring teams. This works because their defensive style or pace likely neutralizes strong offensive opponents, making them undervalued in near-even matchups.
📊Tennessee Volunteers are 0-11 ATS as an underdog of fewer than 8.5 points against ranked opponents that force at least 12.8 turnovers per game. They are also 0-11 SU in this spot, losing by an average of +11.5 points per game.
❓This trend indicates that Tennessee struggles against disciplined, defensive-minded ranked teams when they are a moderate underdog. This likely happens because turnover-heavy teams disrupt Tennessee’s offensive flow, exposing their weaknesses in close matchups.
🕢12:00 PM EST
📈Texas are 7-1 ATS vs teams allowing less than 67 points per game.
📈Texas are 9-2-1 ATS as home favorites.
⏪”A” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Texas A&M Aggies -2.5
(Spread went from +2.5 to -2.5 despite Tennessee +2.5 receiving 51% of public bets and 39% of the money).
✅Active on Texas A&M Aggies -1.5
🏀Houston is 10-0 to the UNDER at home when the total is below 135, following a game in which they made 10 or more three-pointers. These games have stayed under by an average of -12.9 points per game.
❓This trend suggests that after a strong three-point shooting game, Houston’s next home matchup slows down significantly, keeping the score low. This likely works because Houston’s elite defense controls the pace at home, and when oddsmakers set a low total, it reflects a slower, grind-it-out game.
📊Iowa State is 14-0 to the UNDER as an underdog when the total is below 152.5, following a game in which they made 7 or more three-pointers. These games have gone under by an average of -9.7 points per game.
❓This trend indicates that Iowa State plays in low-scoring games as an underdog, even after solid three-point shooting performances. This likely works because as an underdog, they are often facing stronger teams that dictate pace, limiting their scoring opportunities.
🕢2:00 PM EST
📉Houston are 4-10-1 to the UNDER after 4+ days off.
⏪”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Iowa St. @ Houston UNDER 130.0
(Total went from 134.5 to 130.0 despite the OVER receiving 65% of public bets and 62% of the money).
✅Active on Iowa St. Cyclones @ Houston Cougars UNDER 130.0
🏀VCU Rams are 11-0 ATS as a conference favorite with fewer than three days of rest, following a win by seven or more points. They are also 11-0 SU in this spot, winning by an average of +14.3 points per game.
❓This trend suggests that VCU thrives in quick-turnaround games within their conference after a decisive win. This works because momentum carries over, and their system likely benefits from familiarity with conference opponents.
📊George Mason is 0-9-1 ATS as a road underdog of 8+ points when the total exceeds 128.5, following a win in which they shot below 42.5% from the field. They are also 0-10 SU in this scenario, losing by an average of +20.6 points per game.
❓This trend shows that when George Mason wins despite poor shooting, they struggle in their next game, especially as a big road underdog. This likely works because their previous win was unsustainable, poor shooting teams that win often rely on defense or luck, and that doesn’t translate well against stronger competition.
🕢4:00 PM EST
📈VCU is 6-1 ATS after less than 4 days of rest.
📉George Mason is 1-3 ATS vs teams allowing less than 67 points per game.
✅Active on VCU Rams -10.5
🏀AAC away underdogs that were also an underdog in their last game are 11-0 ATS in 2024 facing a team that was also an underdog in their last game.
📊Rice has lost 6 straight games when playing during daytime.
🕢2:00 PM EST
✅Active on Tulsa Golden Hurricanes +6.5
🏀USA away underdogs between +2.5 & +11.5 that lost their previous game are 9-0 ATS in 2024 vs an opponent who also lost their last game. The total must be between 139.0 & 164.0
🕢5:00 PM EST
✅Active on UTEP Miners +3.5
🏒Home favorites with rest advantage are 37-5 SU this season playing against division rival.
📊Ottawa has won 6 straight games when facing a team on a losing streak.
🕢7:00 PM EST
📈Ottawa is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home vs Montreal.
📉Montreal is 3-7 SU when their line is set between +133 & +163
🎯Tim Stutzle has a point in 8 straight games. (1+ point @ -210)
🎯Patrik Laine has 2+ shots on goal in 5 straight games vs Ottawa (2+ SOG @ -155)
✅Active on Ottawa Senators ML
🏒Winnipeg Jets are 22-3 SU as favorites bigger than -110 on 1+ days of rest since 2023.
🕢7:00 PM EST
📈Jets are 8-1 SU when their line is set between -112 & -142
📈Jets are 12-2 SU as road favorites.
📉Blues are 7-15 SU vs teams above .550
🎯Mark Scheifele has a point in 7 straight road games as a favorite. (1+ point @ -200)
✅Active on Winnipeg Jets ML
🏀Below .600 home teams with a spread between -8.0 & +9.0 playing on 1+ days rest facing an opponent on a 4+ games road trip and lost their previous game are 33-11 ATS since 2022 when the total is above 216.0
📊Portland Trail Blazers are 7-0 ATS against Eastern Conference opponents.
🕢10:00 PM EST
📈Portland has won 15 of 16 home games when facing Charlotte.
🎯Anfernee Simons has 6+ assists in 5 straight home games. (Over 5.5 assists @ -115)
⚠️⏪RLM in favor of Charlotte Hornets ML
✅Active on Portland Trailblazers -4.5
◼️Texas A&M Aggies -2.5
◼️Iowa St. @ Houston UNDER 130.0
◼️VCU Rams -10.5
◼️Portland Trailblazers ML
◼️Ottawa Senators +1.5 & Winnipeg Jets ML
🏀 Houston Rockets have hit the OVER in 14 straight non-division road games, following a home game.
🏀 Charlotte Hornets have gone UNDER in 10 straight games as an underdog of fewer than 13.5 points, when facing a team they lost the previous matchup against.
🏀 Chicago Bulls have hit the OVER in nine straight games as a rested home underdog of more than 3.5 points against Western Conference opponents.
🏀 Brooklyn Nets are 0-9 ATS as a double-digit rested underdog, when the total is greater than 210 and they are facing a team they previously defeated.
🏀 Los Angeles Lakers are 8-0 ATS as an underdog against teams with one day of rest.
🏀 Denver Nuggets are 8-0 ATS as a home favorite when favored by between 6 and 18 points.
🏀 Utah Jazz have hit the OVER in seven straight games as a home underdog against conference opponents.
🏀 Iowa State has gone UNDER in 14 straight games as an underdog, when the total is under 152.5 and they are coming off a game in which they made at least seven three-pointers.
🏀 Auburn has hit the OVER in 14 straight games following a conference matchup, when they scored fewer than -7.5 delta points and made fewer than 14 free throws.
🏀 Oklahoma has gone UNDER in 13 straight games as a home underdog, following a loss in which they shot better than 33% from the field.
🏀 Texas Tech has hit the OVER in 11 straight games as a home favorite of more than -24.5, following a game in which they failed to cover the spread by more than nine points.
🏀 Texas A&M is 10-0 ATS at home against teams averaging more than 74.4 points per game, when the spread is within three points of a pick’em.
🏀 Wisconsin is 10-0 ATS as a single-digit favorite, against teams with fewer than four days of rest.
🏀 Florida State is 0-10 ATS as an underdog of five or more points in revenge games, when the total is under 158.5.
🏀 Clemson has gone UNDER in nine straight games, following a game in which they covered the spread by more than 13 points.
🏀 Vanderbilt has gone UNDER in eight straight home games, following a game in which they failed to cover the spread by more than seven points.
🏒Blue Jackets are 5-0 in 1st period OVER as home favorites.
🏒Stars are 4-0 in 1st period OVER as away underdogs.
🏒Red Wings are 8-1 in 1st period OVER as home favorites.
❓ RLM are identified at a certain time during the day. While I report these plays later in the day, some lines may have already moved back. The key takeaway is the early sharp movement which focuses on understanding where the sharp money hit, even if the line has since adjusted. These can still be considered, even if the numbers changed.
⏪🏀”A” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Texas A&M Aggies -2.5
(Spread went from +2.5 to -2.5 despite Tennessee +2.5 receiving 51% of public bets and 39% of the money).
⏪🏀”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Iowa St. @ Houston UNDER 130.0
(Total went from 134.5 to 130.0 despite the OVER receiving 65% of public bets and 62% of the money).
⏪🏀”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Charlotte Hornets ML
(Line went from +183 to +165 despite Portland ML receiving 66% of public bets and 61% of the money).
⏪🏀”B+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Utah Jazz +8.5
(Spread stays still at +8.5 despite Houston -8.5 receiving 64% of public bets and 63% of the money).
Thanks for reading today’s insights!
If you found value in this post, don’t forget to like and share my page with fellow sports enthusiasts. Let’s continue turning data into dollars, one game at a time.
See you tomorrow with more winning systems 🏆
NBA Money Baller Report – Friday, February 21
📊Active Systems for February 21st
🏀Home teams are 8-0 ATS since 2021 when their opponent’s last game went to overtime, won the game but failed to cover the spread and are now on no rest.
❓This trend suggests that teams coming off an exhausting, close overtime win struggle significantly on no rest, making them vulnerable against a fresh home team. This likely works because overtime games require extra effort, both physically and mentally, leading to fatigue, poor execution, and potential lineup limitations in the next game.
📊The New York Knicks are 1-6-1 ATS when they are playing their second game in two days. Their only win is against the Wizards (who they also lost to under the same conditions) and the push is to the Raptors. They also are 0-3-1 ATS when on the road on a b2b and 0-3 ATS vs teams above .400 on b2b.
❓This trend highlights that the Knicks struggle when playing on short rest, especially against competent opponents. Their only cover came against a weak team (Wizards), and their road struggles suggest that travel plus fatigue makes them even more unreliable. This likely works because the Knicks rely on physical play and defensive intensity, both of which decline in back-to-back scenarios, making it difficult for them to cover spreads.
🕢7:00 PM EST
📈Cavaliers are 12-4 ATS vs teams above .550
📉Knicks lost the last matchup by 6 points playing at home vs Cleveland.
🎯Darius Garland has 25+ points in 4 straight games on b2b.
🎯Donovan Mitchell has 6+ assists in 6 straight home games.
⏪”B-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5
(Spread went from -7.5 to -8.5 despite Knicks +8.5 receiving 55% of public bets and 51% of the money).
✅Active on Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5
🏀San Antonio Spurs are 0-14 ATS as a home underdog against teams they previously defeated when the total is below 246. They lost those games by an average of -13.4 points per game. They are also 0-14 SU in this spot.
❓This trend suggests that when the Spurs face a team they previously beat, they not only fail to cover but also lose outright by a wide margin. This likely happens because teams adjust and seek revenge, exposing San Antonio’s weaknesses in rematches. The total being below 246 also implies a slightly slower-paced game, where the Spurs’ defensive flaws get magnified, making it harder for them to keep up.
📊San Antonio Spurs are 0-10 ATS as an underdog of fewer than 8.5 points with less than two days of rest against teams they previously defeated. They lost by an average of 16 points per game. They are also 0-10 SU in this scenario.
❓This trend further reinforces that San Antonio struggles in rematches, especially when they don’t have much recovery time. The fact that they lose by an average of 16 points suggests that their style of play is easy to counter, and fatigue only worsens their performance.
📊Detroit Pistons are 12-0-1 ATS in road games with a spread under 9.5, following a game in which they scored 116+ points.
❓This trend indicates that when Detroit plays well offensively (scoring 116+), they carry that momentum into their next road game and consistently exceed expectations. This trend likely works because hot shooting and offensive confidence travel well, and oddsmakers may not fully adjust for the Pistons’ scoring surge.
🕢8:30 PM EST
📈Pistons are 5-1 ATS as road favorites.
🩹Victor Wembanyama (SAS) is ruled OUT
🎯Malik Beasley has 4+ threes in 8 straight games vs teams under .500
✅Active on Detroit Pistons -4.0
🏀Away underdogs priced between +110 & +250 that played their last game at home are 21-2 ATS when the total is between 216.0 & 229.0 and the opponent is in the same conference as them.
🕢9:30 PM EST
🩹Wolves have a lot of injuries to deal with / Randle (O)-Edwards (Q)-Conley (Q)-Gobert (Q)
✅Active on Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5
🏀Golden State Warriors are 0-7 ATS with totals greater than 219.5, following a game in which they allowed fewer than 100 points.
📊Golden State Warriors are 1-10 ATS in 2024 vs teams in the Pacific Division.
🕢10:00 PM EST
✅Active on Sacramento Kings +2.5
🏀Manhattan is 13-0 ATS as an underdog when coming off rest between 2 and 11 days.
📊Away underdogs between +3.5 & +4.0 who won their last game are 24-8 ATS vs teams that lost their previous game on the road when the total is below 150.0 in 2024.
🕢7:00 PM EST
📈Manhattan is 6-1 ATS when their spread is between +1.5 & +5.5
📈Manhattan is 8-2 ATS as road underdogs.
✅Active on Manhattan Jaspers +3.5
◼️Detroit Pistons -4.0 📊🖥️📢💯
◼️Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5 📊⏪🖥️📢💯
📊Trend(s) in favor of the team
⏪Reverse Line Movement in favor of the team
🖥️Projected score in favor of the team
📢Consensus in favor of the team
👨🔬Expert pick in favor of the team
💲 Sharp action in favor of the team
💯Stats in favor of the team
🏀 Milwaukee Bucks have hit the OVER in 12 straight games with totals under 236.5, when coming off a game that had a spread within three points of pick’em.
🏀 Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the OVER in 13 straight games with rest against rested teams, following a road loss in the regular season.
🏀 Miami Heat are 0-12 ATS as a road favorite of fewer than six points against conference opponents they previously defeated.
🏀 Orlando Magic are 11-0 ATS at home with spreads greater than -17, when facing teams coming off a road loss that average fewer than 2.2 assists per turnover.
🏀 New York Knicks are 11-0-1 to the OVER as a regular-season underdog.
🏀 Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the OVER in 10 straight games as a road underdog in the regular season, when facing a team that is not at a rest disadvantage and that they previously defeated.
🏀 San Antonio Spurs are 0-10 ATS as an underdog of fewer than 8.5 points with fewer than two days of rest, when facing a team they previously defeated.
🏀 Dallas Mavericks have hit the OVER in eight straight games, following a game in which they made fewer than 15 three-pointers.
🏀 Oakland is 19-0 ATS as an underdog when the total is 145 or higher.
🏀 Merrimack has gone UNDER in 14 straight home games.
🏀 Princeton is 0-11 ATS with fewer than 10 days of rest, when facing a team they previously defeated.
🏀 Michigan is 0-10 ATS in revenge games as a favorite of fewer than 21.5 points on non-neutral courts.
🏀 Marquette is 8-0 ATS in its last eight meetings against Villanova.
🏀 Miami (Ohio) has hit the OVER in eight straight games as a home favorite, when the total is less than 161.5.
❓ RLM are identified at a certain time during the day. While I report these plays later in the day, some lines may have already moved back. The key takeaway is the early sharp movement which focuses on understanding where the sharp money hit, even if the line has since adjusted. These can still be considered, even if the numbers changed.
⏪🏀”B-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5
(Spread went from -7.5 to -8.5 despite Knicks +8.5 receiving 55% of public bets and 51% of the money).
Thanks for reading today’s insights!
If you found value in this post, don’t forget to like and share my page with fellow sports enthusiasts. Let’s continue turning data into dollars, one game at a time.
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📊Active Systems for February 20th
🏀The Memphis Grizzlies are 17-0 ATS as a road favorite against Eastern Conference teams they defeated in a previous matchup when the total is greater than 221.
❓This trend suggests that when Memphis faces an Eastern Conference team they’ve already beaten, they not only win but also cover, especially in higher-scoring games. This likely works because familiarity gives them a game-plan advantage, allowing them to exploit the same weaknesses as before. The high total (221+) also suggests a faster-paced game, which benefits Memphis when they control the tempo.
📊The Memphis Grizzlies are 15-3 ATS facing a non-conference opponent with a spread between +7.0 & -11.0 in 2024.
❓This trend shows they perform exceptionally well against unfamiliar opponents when the game is expected to be somewhat competitive (not a blowout either way). This trend likely works because Memphis adapts well to new matchups, exploiting teams that aren’t used to their defensive schemes or playing style. The spread range suggests they are often properly valued by oddsmakers in these spots, yet they consistently exceed expectations.
📊The Grizzlies are 13-1 ATS (13-1 SU) in their last 14 games against the Eastern Conference. Memphis is outscoring opponents 131.9-118.4 in these games. Memphis is 6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS in these games on the road. Grizzlies are 10-0 SU, 10-0 ATS in these games as a favorite, outscoring opponents by +20.2 points per game.
🕢7:00 PM EST
📈Grizzlies won the last matchup by 15 points back in January.
📈Grizzlies are 7-3 ATS as road favorites.
📈Grizzlies are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs Indiana.
📉Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games.
✅Active on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5
🏀The Philadelphia 76ers are 0-9 ATS with rest, following a game in which they scored fewer than 102 points.
❓This trend suggests that when Philly has a low-scoring performance and then gets rest, they fail to cover the spread in their next game. This likely happens because their offensive struggles carry over, even with extra rest, possibly due to injuries, poor shooting form, or matchup disadvantages that don’t improve overnight. Oddsmakers might overestimate their ability to bounce back, leading to consistent ATS failures.
📊The Boston Celtics are 9-1 ATS since 2022 when they had 15+ offensive rebounds in their last game and are on 4+ days of rest.
❓This trend indicates that when Boston dominates the offensive glass and then gets extended rest, they not only win but also cover at an elite rate. This likely works because extra possessions from offensive rebounds create more scoring opportunities, and with additional rest, they can fully recover and execute at a high level. The combination of rebounding dominance and fresh legs makes them extremely difficult to slow down.
🕢7:00 PM EST
📉Philadelphia are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games.
📉Philadelphia are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs an Eastern conference opponent.
✅Active on Boston Celtics -7.0
🏀Atlanta Hawks are 12-0 ATS as a conference underdog of fewer than 11.5 points, as long as they are not at a rest disadvantage.
❓This trend suggests that when Atlanta is a moderate underdog in a conference game and has equal or more rest than their opponent, they consistently cover the spread. This likely works because they perform well in competitive matchups where they aren’t overly outmatched, and proper rest allows them to maximize their athleticism and scoring ability. The rest factor ensures they aren’t fatigued, which might be crucial for a team that relies on pace and shooting.
📊The Orlando Magic are 26-42 ATS (38.24%) on the road when they are priced smaller than -370 since 2023.
❓This trend indicates that when Orlando is a road favorite (but not a heavy one), they struggle to cover. This likely happens because they are good enough to be favored but not dominant enough to win convincingly, leading to closer-than-expected games.
📊The Magic are 0-7 SU and 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games with more than 1 day of rest. Magic are being outscored 106.3-92.3 in these games. Orlando has lost 5 of these games by 9+ points and has failed to score 100 points in all of these games.
🕢7:30 PM EST
📈Atlanta are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games.
📈Atlanta are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference conference.
📉Orlando are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games on the road.
📉Orlando are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing on the road against Atlanta.
✅Active on Atlanta Hawks +1.0 or ML
🏀North Alabama is 0-10 ATS as an underdog against teams averaging more than 7.7 three-pointers per game when the total is below 152.5. They are failing to cover by -17.5 points per game in these conditions.
❓This trend suggests they struggle against teams that can shoot from deep in lower-scoring games. This likely happens because they lack the defensive ability to contest three-pointers effectively and don’t have the offensive firepower to keep up in these controlled-scoring matchups.
📊Lipscomb is 9-0 ATS as a favorite of 8.5 points or fewer when the total is under 154.5. They cover by an average of +12.1 points per game in these situations.
❓This trend suggests they excel in matchups where they are expected to win but not in a blowout, especially when the game isn’t projected to be a high-scoring shootout. This likely works because Lipscomb plays efficiently in structured, moderate-paced games, allowing them to consistently outperform expectations.
📊Lipscomb is also 7-0 ATS as a favorite against teams that have covered in back-to-back games while allowing fewer than 73.5 PPG. They are covering by an average of +14.9 points per game.
❓This trend shows that they thrive against teams perceived to be in good form. This likely works because their offensive style or matchup advantages allow them to expose teams that have recently played well but might be due for regression.
🕢8:00 PM EST
✅Active on Lipscomb Bisons -6.5
◼️Memphis Grizzlies ML 📊🖥️📢👨🔬
◼️Boston Celtics ML 📊🖥️📢👨🔬
◼️Atlanta Hawks +1.5 📊🖥️📢
📊Trend(s) in favor of the team
⏪Reverse Line Movement in favor of the team
🖥️Projected score in favor of the team
📢Consensus in favor of the team
👨🔬Expert pick in favor of the team
💲 Sharp action in favor of the team
💯Stats in favor of the team
🏀 San Antonio Spurs have hit the OVER in 11 straight games following a loss of 12 or more points.
🏀 Denver Nuggets are 10-0 ATS at home with a spread under 10.5, when facing a team they previously defeated.
🏀 Chicago Bulls have hit the UNDER in nine straight games with rest, following a home game in which they allowed 112 or more points.
🏀 Brooklyn Nets are 0-8-1 ATS against rested opponents with winning records, when they are on a winning streak of two or more games.
🏀 Milwaukee Bucks have hit the OVER in eight straight games against teams they previously shot under 47% against and made fewer than 14 three-pointers against.
🏀 Portland Trail Blazers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games.
🏀 Old Dominion has hit the UNDER in 17 straight home games with fewer than five days of rest, following a game in which they shot under 45%. (vs Marshall)
🏀 Maryland is 0-14 ATS against teams averaging more than 9.5 turnovers and fewer than 79.2 points per game, when coming off an ATS win of seven or more points. (vs USC)
🏀 Oregon State has hit the OVER in 13 straight games when the total is greater than 129.5, as long as they are not favored by more than 15.5 points. (vs Pepperdine)
🏀 North Florida has hit the OVER in 12 straight games when the total is under 159.5. (vs Jacksonville)
🏀 Northwestern has hit the OVER in 11 straight games when playing on fewer than four days of rest. (vs Ohio State)
🏀 Le Moyne has hit the OVER in 10 straight games, following a game in which they shot greater than 44% from the field. (vs Saint Francis PA)
🏀 Southern Miss is 8-0 ATS as a home favorite, following a loss. (vs Coastal Carolina)
❓ RLM are identified at a certain time during the day. While I report these plays later in the day, some lines may have already moved back. The key takeaway is the early sharp movement which focuses on understanding where the sharp money hit, even if the line has since adjusted. These can still be considered, even if the numbers changed.
⏪🏀”A+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Phoenix Suns -2.0
(Spread went from +2.5 to -2.0 despite Spurs +2.0 receiving 57% of public bets and 53% of the money).
⚠️💲Smart Money detected coming in on Spurs ATS & ML
⏪🏀”A” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Hofstra Pride -7.5
(Spread went from -5.5 to -7.5 despite Monmouth +7.5 receiving 77% of public bets and 64% of the money).
⏪🏀”A” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Portland Trailblazers +3.0
(Spread went from +5.0 to +3.0 despite Los Angeles -3.0 receiving 80% of public bets and 79% of the money).
⏪🏀”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of S. Utah Thunderbirds +6.5
(Spread went from +8.5 to +6.5 despite Abilene Chr. -6.5 receiving 66% of public bets and 63% of the money).
💲Smart Money detected coming in on Southern Utah ATS
Thanks for reading today’s insights!
If you found value in this post, don’t forget to like and share my page with fellow sports enthusiasts. Let’s continue turning data into dollars, one game at a time.
See you tomorrow with more winning systems 🏆
