Category: Betting

NFL Blitz: Week 9

Posted on by Ronald Cabang

Welcome to “NFL Blitz,” where we give you in-depth analysis on every game, every week! We’re not here to pick sides – we’re here to explore the “why” behind each matchup. Our goal is to arm you with the knowledge to make your own informed choices:

  • Why each team could cover the spread – uncover key factors that favor both sides.
  • Why the game could go over or under – we dive into the stats, matchups, and situations that point to both outcomes.

We give you the “what ifs” so you understand the paths each game could take. No hot takes or hype, just sharp analysis to help you see both sides and make educated decisions. Whether you’re betting, setting up fantasy lineups, or just following the action, this weekly article is the ultimate guide to the NFL week ahead.


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New England Patriots vs. Tennessee Titans

Why New England will cover:

  • New England’s backup QB Jacoby Brissett has been capable of stepping in, and with Hunter Henry and Pop Douglas as his primary targets, he could move the ball against Tennessee’s middle-of-the-road pass defense.
  • The Titans’ potential absences (Pollard, Ridley, Sneed, Sweat) could diminish their offense and defensive effectiveness, leveling the playing field.

Why Tennessee will cover:

  • The Titans can rely on Tony Pollard, assuming he plays, to exploit New England’s poor run defense and control the game on the ground.
  • Mason Rudolph has shown he can connect with Calvin Ridley, and New England’s low-pressure rate may give him ample time to make plays.

Why game will go over:

  • If Tennessee’s running game with Pollard gets going, and Ridley finds openings in New England’s secondary, both teams could score consistently.
  • With New England forced into a pass-heavy game plan, quick drives and potential turnovers may push the scoring higher.

Why game will go under:

  • Both offenses face limitations—Tennessee with possible player absences, and New England with a backup QB and a poor offensive line—which may keep scoring low.
  • Tennessee’s run-focused game plan and New England’s pass protection issues could slow down the pace and limit scoring opportunities.


Cleveland Browns vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Why Cleveland will cover:

  • If Jameis Winston can limit his mistakes, Cleveland’s offense could find occasional success, especially with Njoku in a favorable matchup against the Chargers’ weakness against tight ends.
  • The Chargers face an early East Coast game, which historically poses challenges, despite Jim Harbaugh’s positive track record.

Why Los Angeles will cover:

  • Cleveland’s defense is missing two key players (Ward and Owusu-Koramoah), making it easier for Herbert to capitalize with Dobbins on the ground and his receivers in the passing game.
  • The Browns may experience a letdown after their emotional upset over the Ravens, making it difficult to replicate last week’s performance.

Why game will go over:

  • Cleveland’s defensive injuries could lead to more scoring opportunities for Herbert, while Winston’s aggressive style may result in quick scoring drives or turnovers.
  • With both teams likely to exploit defensive weaknesses, points could accumulate on both sides.

Why game will go under:

  • If Winston struggles against the Chargers’ top-tier pass defense, Cleveland’s scoring could be stifled, slowing down the overall pace.
  • Cleveland’s run-first approach and the Chargers’ defense against the pass may result in a slower game with fewer scoring chances.



New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers

Why New Orleans will cover:

  • The Saints’ run game, led by Alvin Kamara, should exploit Carolina’s historically weak defense, even if Carr is not at full strength.
  • Carolina’s quarterback situation is a mess, with Dalton potentially limited by a thumb injury and Young showing poor results against stronger defenses.

Why Carolina will cover:

  • If Dalton starts and is close to full health, he may manage the offense better than Young, helping the Panthers keep the game within reach.
  • New Orleans’ injuries in the secondary, especially if Lattimore or Mathieu are out, could open up passing lanes for Carolina’s offense.

Why game will go over:

  • New Orleans could control the game with a balanced attack featuring Kamara and Taysom Hill, generating consistent scoring opportunities against Carolina’s weak defense.
  • If Dalton plays, Carolina could manage to move the ball enough to keep the scoring higher than expected.

Why game will go under:

  • With both teams’ quarterback situations in flux, there’s a strong chance of conservative play-calling, limiting big plays and overall scoring.
  • New Orleans may focus on a run-heavy approach to protect Carr, slowing the game pace and minimizing scoring opportunities.



Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins

Why Buffalo will cover:

  • The Bills have consistently dominated Miami in recent matchups, and with Miami’s diminished pass rush, Josh Allen should have ample time to find open targets.
  • The Dolphins’ struggles against the run, combined with James Cook’s strong performance in their previous meeting, should give Buffalo a balanced attack.

Why Miami will cover:

  • With Tua Tagovailoa one game further into his return, Miami could make adjustments, especially by using Achane as a receiving option to expose Buffalo’s defense.
  • Miami’s offense, when healthy, has shown explosive potential, which could allow them to keep pace with Buffalo’s scoring.

Why game will go over:

  • Both offenses have potent playmakers: Buffalo’s trio of Allen, Cook, and Cooper, paired with Miami’s Tagovailoa, Hill, and Achane, suggest a high-scoring affair.
  • If Buffalo can move the ball efficiently with Cook and exploit Miami’s pass defense, both sides could put up points consistently.

Why game will go under:

  • With Miami’s offensive line struggles and Buffalo’s track record of stifling Tagovailoa, the Dolphins’ scoring may be limited.
  • Buffalo’s run-heavy approach with Cook could control the clock, slowing the pace and reducing total scoring opportunities.



Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons

Why Dallas will cover:

  • If Micah Parsons returns, he can apply pressure to Kirk Cousins, who has struggled against top pass rushers, making it difficult for Atlanta’s offense to find rhythm.
  • Atlanta’s weak pass rush should give Dak Prescott time in the pocket to connect with CeeDee Lamb and other targets, exploiting a vulnerable Falcons secondary, especially in the slot.

Why Atlanta will cover:

  • Bijan Robinson has a strong matchup against a leaky Dallas run defense, potentially allowing the Falcons to control the game on the ground.
  • Dallas’s shaky offensive line could struggle against even a moderate pass rush from Atlanta, limiting Prescott’s effectiveness and keeping the game close.

Why game will go over:

  • Dallas’s passing attack has a favorable matchup against Atlanta’s secondary, while Robinson’s big-play ability on the ground for the Falcons could add to the scoring.
  • If both offenses capitalize on defensive weaknesses, scoring could come from both sides, pushing the total over.

Why game will go under:

  • With Parsons back, Dallas’s defense could stall Atlanta’s offensive production, and if Atlanta focuses on a run-heavy strategy, it may limit the number of possessions and scoring opportunities.
  • Both teams may struggle to sustain drives due to offensive line issues and defensive matchups, resulting in a lower-scoring affair.



Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens

Why Denver will cover:

  • The Ravens’ weak secondary gives Courtland Sutton and the Broncos’ passing game a strong matchup advantage, while Denver’s solid offensive line should keep Bo Nix protected.
  • With Baltimore potentially looking ahead to a Thursday night divisional game against Cincinnati, Denver’s motivation and focus on this game may be stronger.

Why Baltimore will cover:

  • If Lamar Jackson plays, Baltimore’s versatile offense could create big-play opportunities even against a tough Denver defense, especially if Jackson can connect with secondary targets outside of Surtain’s coverage.
  • Baltimore’s effective run defense could limit Javonte Williams, forcing Denver into a one-dimensional passing attack, which is less reliable.

Why game will go over:

  • Denver’s strong pass attack against Baltimore’s struggling secondary and Jackson’s big-play potential, if he plays, could drive up the score on both sides.
  • Baltimore’s offensive scheme allows for quick scoring drives, which could lead to a higher-scoring game if both offenses click.

Why game will go under:

  • Denver’s stout rush defense could slow Baltimore’s ground game, limiting Jackson’s ability to move the chains and resulting in fewer scoring opportunities.
  • Both teams may lean on the pass strategically, leading to fewer sustained drives and a slower tempo if Baltimore’s defense can force Denver into third-and-long situations.

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Cincinatti Bengals vs Las Vegas Raiders

Why Cincinnati will cover:

  • If Tee Higgins plays, the Bengals’ passing attack could exploit the Raiders’ secondary, especially with Ja’Marr Chase drawing coverage away from other targets.
  • Burrow has shown resilience on third-down conversions, and with a home-field advantage, Cincinnati could create separation if the Raiders struggle to contain Chase and the Bengals’ aerial threat.

Why Las Vegas will cover:

  • The Bengals’ weak offensive line and lack of a strong run game leave them vulnerable, especially with Maxx Crosby pressuring Burrow and impacting his timing.
  • Cincinnati’s defense struggles against both the pass and the run, providing favorable matchups for Gardner Minshew, Jakobi Meyers, and Brock Bowers.

Why game will go over:

  • Both teams face defenses that struggle with pressure and coverage, so big plays and scoring drives could add up quickly.
  • Minshew’s efficiency with returning targets like Meyers and Bowers, combined with Burrow’s connection with Chase, could drive the score higher than anticipated.

Why game will go under:

  • If the Bengals’ offensive line fails to protect Burrow, Cincinnati’s offense may stall, limiting their scoring potential.
  • Both teams may struggle with offensive consistency due to weak run blocking, slowing down the pace and reducing total points.


Washington Commanders vs New York Giants

Why Washington will cover:

  • With Jayden Daniels’ ability to scramble and Brian Robinson Jr.’s success in the run game, Washington’s offense should be able to control the tempo and exploit the Giants’ weak run defense.
  • The Giants’ offensive line is severely compromised without Andrew Thomas, likely resulting in pressure on Daniel Jones and limiting his ability to connect with Malik Nabers.

Why New York will cover:

  • The Redskins may struggle to maintain intensity after last week’s dramatic Hail Mary win, opening the door for a Giants team eager to rebound.
  • Washington’s secondary remains vulnerable to big plays, which Jones could capitalize on if he finds time in the pocket.

Why game will go over:

  • Washington’s run-heavy approach could set up play-action shots for Daniels, while Jones and Nabers might create explosive plays if the Giants’ offense finds its rhythm.
  • Both defenses have clear vulnerabilities: Washington struggles against deep passes, and the Giants have issues against the run, which could lead to consistent scoring.

Why game will go under:

  • Washington’s focus on the run game and New York’s potential struggles without their top running back and a weak offensive line may slow the pace.
  • Both teams could stall on drives due to shaky offensive execution or defensive pressure, limiting scoring opportunities.


Chicago Bears vs. Arizona Cardinals

Why Chicago will cover:

  • Caleb Williams will have a much cleaner pocket against Arizona’s weak pass rush, allowing him to connect with his talented receivers against a vulnerable secondary.
  • D’Andre Swift’s recent resurgence and Arizona’s poor run defense should allow the Bears to control the game on the ground, creating scoring opportunities and extending drives.

Why Arizona will cover:

  • Kyler Murray’s mobility and ability to make off-schedule throws can help Arizona’s offense if Chicago’s pass rush over-pursues.
  • Chicago’s struggles against the run give James Conner a favorable matchup, allowing Arizona to control the tempo and keep the game within reach.

Why game will go over:

  • Both teams have playmakers who can exploit weaknesses in the opposing defenses: Williams and Swift for Chicago, and Murray and Conner for Arizona.
  • Arizona’s defense struggles in both pressure and run defense, while Chicago’s defensive weakness in the run game could lead to quick drives and scoring on both ends.

Why game will go under:

  • If Chicago can dominate the ground game with Swift, they may look to control the clock and limit Arizona’s offensive possessions, leading to a lower total.
  • Both teams may lean on their run games due to the opposing defenses’ weaknesses, potentially resulting in longer, time-consuming drives.



Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Why Philadelphia will cover:

  • Philadelphia’s improving defense, especially the pass rush, can exploit Jacksonville’s offensive line struggles, putting constant pressure on Trevor Lawrence.
  • Saquon Barkley has a favorable matchup as a receiving threat out of the backfield, allowing Philadelphia to sustain drives and control the game tempo.

Why Jacksonville will cover:

  • If Brian Thomas Jr. plays, Lawrence could have a reliable target, preventing the Eagles from focusing solely on A.J. Brown and Barkley.
  • Philadelphia may face a letdown spot with a divisional game against the Cowboys next week, potentially reducing their intensity.

Why game will go over:

  • Both offenses have the potential for big plays, with Philadelphia leveraging Barkley and Brown, while Jacksonville could surprise with quick passes if Thomas is active.
  • The Eagles’ scoring consistency since their bye week suggests they could push the total higher, especially if Jacksonville’s defense struggles to contain them.

Why game will go under:

  • Jacksonville’s offensive injuries and Philadelphia’s pass rush may keep the Jaguars’ scoring low, limiting the total.
  • Philadelphia may look to control the game through the run with Barkley, managing the clock and keeping the scoring pace steady.


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Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks

Why Los Angeles will cover:

  • With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp both back, Stafford has his full arsenal against a Seattle secondary that’s been dealing with injuries, giving the Rams a clear edge in the passing game.
  • Seattle’s run defense has been weak, creating a favorable matchup for Kyren Williams to exploit and keep the Rams’ offense balanced.

Why Seattle will cover:

  • Geno Smith’s offense could find rhythm with a potentially returning D.K. Metcalf, while Kenneth Walker is in a good spot to challenge a Rams run defense that is middle of the pack.
  • Sharp bettors have backed Seattle, likely banking on the Seahawks bouncing back from a disappointing loss and leveraging their top-10 pass rush to disrupt Stafford’s rhythm.

Why game will go over:

  • Both offenses have explosive playmakers with a favorable matchup against questionable defensive secondaries, opening the door for quick scoring drives.
  • The Rams’ reliance on both a strong passing and rushing attack, combined with Seattle’s dynamic play potential with Walker and possibly Metcalf, could lead to a higher-scoring game.

Why game will go under:

  • If the Rams’ pass rush disrupts Smith and limits Seattle’s ability to sustain drives, the Seahawks’ scoring could stall.
  • Both teams may lean on the run game to control the clock and exploit each other’s weaker rush defenses, potentially slowing down the game.


Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions

Why Green Bay will cover:

  • If Malik Willis starts, he’s shown he can manage the game well and take advantage of Detroit’s weakened pass rush and secondary, which struggled last week without Aidan Hutchinson.
  • Jared Goff’s history of playing worse in outdoor conditions could limit Detroit’s offensive efficiency, particularly if rainy weather affects the game.

Why Detroit will cover:

  • Detroit’s run game, led by Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, matches up well against a Green Bay defense that ranks 26th against the run recently, giving the Lions control over the tempo.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta are reliable passing targets who could exploit Green Bay’s defensive focus on outside receivers, allowing Goff to sustain drives.

Why game will go over:

  • Both teams could exploit weaknesses in each other’s defense: Green Bay’s issues stopping the run and Detroit’s limited pass rush without Hutchinson.
  • Big plays from Detroit’s running backs and Green Bay’s receivers against weaker defensive units could push the total higher.

Why game will go under:

  • If Malik Willis starts, Green Bay may adopt a conservative, run-heavy approach, slowing down the game’s pace and limiting scoring.
  • Rainy conditions and Jared Goff’s challenges in outdoor games could contribute to a slower, lower-scoring matchup.


Minnesota Vikings vs. Indianapolis Colts

Why Indianapolis will cover:

  • The absence of Christian Darrisaw leaves Sam Darnold vulnerable to a Colts pass rush led by DeForest Buckner, making it challenging for Minnesota’s offense to function smoothly.
  • Joe Flacco’s starting role gives Indianapolis stability in facing Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy defense, whereas Anthony Richardson’s struggles against the blitz would have made the Colts’ offense stagnant.

Why Minnesota will cover:

  • Aaron Jones has a favorable matchup against the Colts’ struggling run defense, allowing the Vikings to establish the ground game and alleviate pressure on Darnold.
  • Even with Darrisaw out, Darnold’s connection with Justin Jefferson could produce big plays if the Colts can’t apply consistent pressure on the Vikings’ pass protection.

Why game will go over:

  • Both defenses have vulnerabilities—Minnesota’s offensive line without Darrisaw and Indianapolis’ run defense—which could lead to high-efficiency plays and quick scoring opportunities.
  • Joe Flacco’s ability to handle the blitz and connect with Colts receivers could lead to sustained drives and scoring for Indianapolis.

Why game will go under:

  • The Vikings may adopt a conservative, run-heavy approach with Jones to manage clock and limit Darnold’s exposure to pressure, slowing down the game pace.
  • Indianapolis’ defense, with Buckner back, could disrupt Darnold enough to keep the Vikings’ scoring low, while Minnesota’s solid run defense limits Jonathan Taylor’s production.


Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Why Kansas City will cover:

  • The Chiefs’ passing game has a significant advantage against a depleted Tampa Bay secondary, especially with DeAndre Hopkins getting more integrated and Travis Kelce in a favorable matchup against a defense that struggles against tight ends.
  • Kansas City’s offense will be less reliant on the run, focusing on exploiting Tampa Bay’s weakened pass defense, allowing Mahomes and his receivers to put up points.

Why Tampa Bay will cover:

  • Baker Mayfield has shown he can keep games close, and with Kansas City’s tendency to let opponents back-door covers in the regular season, he could make this a one-score game.
  • Kansas City may have one eye on their upcoming divisional matchup, potentially limiting their motivation to cover a larger spread.

Why game will go over:

  • Kansas City’s focus on the passing game, combined with Tampa’s vulnerability to wideouts and tight ends, could result in a high-scoring affair led by Mahomes and Kelce.
  • If Mayfield connects on a few late drives, it could push the game over the total as both offenses exploit defensive weaknesses.

Why game will go under:

  • With Tampa’s strong run defense limiting Kansas City’s ground game and the Chiefs playing conservatively to avoid injuries before a divisional game, the game pace may slow down.
  • Tampa Bay’s cluster injuries on offense could hinder their scoring potential, especially if Mayfield’s primary targets are sidelined.

Money Baller Betting Report – NBA – Sunday, October 27 (Free Preview)

Posted on by Austin Wang

Welcome Ballers! 2-3 on featured NBA trends on Saturday. See below for notes on tonight’s slate – although be wary, I am referencing trends from last season. For games not listed, we didn’t find any meaningful trends/systems worth noting.


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Just a reminder, here is our Money Baller Reports Schedule:

  • Monday: Off
  • Tuesday: Off
  • Wednesday: NBA Money Baller Report
  • Thursday: Off
  • Friday: NBA Money Baller Report
  • Saturday: NBA Money Baller Report + NFL Weekly Newsletter
  • Sunday: NBA Money Baller Report

Published: Sunday, October 27, 2024, 1:30 PM CT



Milwaukee Bucks @ Brooklyn Nets

  • Baller System active on the Bucks: Back a road favorite off a outright loss as a home favorite (This is not showing up as a Baller System in the matchup page, we are troubleshooting at the moment.)
    • TMB thoughts: This is one of our favorite and most successful systems. We are backing the Bucks -8.5.





New Orleans Pelicans @ Portland Trailblazers

  • Pelicans: 55-32-1 1H ATS (15-7 1H ATS as road favorites) last season.
  • Trailblazers: 12-21 1H ATS as road underdogs last season.
    • TMB thoughts: This didn’t hit last time, but is it worth another shot? Pelicans 1H -3 could be worth considering, but we are not completely convinced.



Atlanta Hawks @ Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Thunder: 25-14 ATS as home favorites last season.
  • Hawks: 10-19 ATS as road underdogs last season.
    • TMB thoughts: While we wouldn’t fault you for wanting to back the dominant Thunder, we’re going to pass with the Thunder on the second game of a B2B and the spread a little too high for our liking.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Golden State Warriors

  • Warriors: 9-1 Team Total O/U when they had more rest than their opponent last season.
  • Clippers: 2nd game of B2B and outright win as an underdog.
    • TMB thoughts: The Warriors’ offense has been playing more small ball (3rd in Pace, 2nd in ORTG) this season, resulting in some higher scoring games. We thought the Warriors were in a favorable spot, but rather than back the spread, we’re going to go Warriors Team Total Over 115.5.

Cardinals vs. Dolphins: Expect points with Tua and Kyler

Posted on by Giulio Lavini

Game: Arizona Cardinals vs. Miami Dolphins
Date: October 27th, 2024, 1 PM ET

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Game Analysis & Trends:

This Sunday, we’ve got a high-potential matchup as Tua Tagovailoa returns for the Dolphins and Kyler Murray looks to build on a win as an underdog. With both offenses ready to bring some firepower, this game sets up nicely for a higher-scoring affair. Let’s dive into some key trends and angles:

Key Trends (2024 Season):

  • When a team is coming off a game against the Chargers or Chiefs, the over has cashed in 9 out of 10 times (9-1).
  • The over is 6-3 in games where the total is 44 or higher, and one of the teams is coming off a road loss with a poor win percentage.
  • In situations where the road underdog is coming off a home win as a dog, the over is a perfect 6-0.
  • In games with a total set at 46 or higher, where both teams are coming off an under, the average total points scored is 51.8.

With these trends in mind and the return of key playmakers, I expect both teams to put points on the board and turn this into a shootout.

Pick: Over 46

NFL Week 8 Newsletter: Stats, Bye Weeks Analysis, Trends, and Expert Picks

Posted on by The Money Baller Team

Welcome to the NFL Week 8 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Last week, our picks went 1-2, which brings our season record on released picks to 10-10-2.

 
NFL Week 8 Newsletter Table of Contents:

Click here for NFL Week 8 Matchup Pages


I. NFL Week 8 Newsletter – Team Trends


These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:

  • Titans: 2-8 ATS in L10 road games.
  • Chargers: 1-10 O/U in L11 games as favorites
  • Chargers: held opponents Team Total 0-6 O/U this season.
  • Seahawks: 6-1 Team Total O/U this season.
  • Panthers: 6-1 1H O/U this season.
  • Texans: 6-1 1H ATS this season.
  • Colts: 1-6 1H O/U this season.
  • Bears: held opponents Team Total 0-6 O/U this season.
  • Browns: 0-7 Team Total O/U this season.
  • Giants: 1-6 O/U this season.
  • Eagles: 2-10 O/U in L12 road games.
  • Eagles: 1-5 1H ATS this season.
  • Patriots: 1-11-2 ATS in L14 home games.
  • Ravens: 6-1 O/U this season (4-0 O/U on the road).
  • Dolphins: 0-6 Team Total O/U this season.
  • Cowboys: 2-8 ATS in L10 games as underdogs.


Includes Thursday Night Football results:

  • Vikings: 1-10 O/U as road favorites (including neutral field) since Dec 20, 2021.
  • Vikings: 8-1-2 ATS as road favorites since Dec 20, 2021.


Not active this week:

  • Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
  • Bears: 7-0 ATS In L7 home games.
  • Chargers: 1-7-1 ATS in L9 games as underdogs.
  • Lions: 15-3 ATS in L18 road games.
  • Dolphins: 0-7 ATS in L7 games as underdogs.



II. NFL Week 8 Newsletter – Totals Analysis


Totals go 9-6 to the under in Week 7, with an average of 45.4 points per game (on par with the season average of 45) and a median of 46. This brings the total O/U record to 53-52-2 for the season. Market totals have stayed constant for a few weeks now, hovering around the 44 mark. As of right now, average market totals for Week 8 is 44.2.




III. Bye Weeks Stats and Trends

Favorites going into a bye week did well ATS. They are 29-9 ATS since the beginning of the 2022 season. This has gone 4-1 ATS this season..  These teams play with confidence as they are headed in a much-needed break. This is active to play on the 49ers and Steelers in Week 8.

I also shared last week: teams going into a bye week are 67-41 ATS against a divisional opponent since the 2015 season. Another one that is not active, but is something we will monitor going forward.



IV. Baller System: Unders on Playoff Rematches


Teams facing each other in their first regular season matchup after their previous matchup was in the playoffs have typically gone under. Those games have gone 49-26-3 (65.3%) to the under since 2018. They are 33-14-3 (69.6%) to the under when these matchups occur early in the season in Week 10 or before.

I think the logic makes sense – these teams are quite familiar with each other after game planning for them on grand stage of the NFL Playoffs. In addition, one team will be out for revenge (especially early in the season) and expect their game plan on defense to be stronger, which will lend to a lower scoring game.

This trend has gone 4-2 to the under so far this season. Raiders/Bengals game is active in Week 9, although I put little stock into this since their playoff matchup was back in 2021.



V. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite


Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 49-21-4 ATS record. This system has gone 5-2 ATS this season (with the Vikings losing on Thursday). This is active on the Falcons in Week 8.

Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.


VI. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss


Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 156-105-3 ATS (59.8%).

By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.

This is active to fade the Texans and Dolphins in Week 8.




NFL Week 8 Newsletter – Breakdowns


Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

As the Indianapolis Colts get ready to face the Houston Texans, situational factors strongly favor the Colts. The betting market seems to agree, with the spread moving to Colts +5 after opening at a higher line.

The Texans return home after a two-game road stretch, often a tough spot for teams, especially with a short week and a Thursday night matchup against the Jets on deck. This look-ahead factor may lead Houston to overlook Indianapolis, leaving an opening for the Colts to take advantage.

The Colts are motivated to make up for a disappointing Week 1 loss to the Texans, and they come into this matchup with a healthier roster (Jonathan Taylor, Anthony Richardson, Deforest Buckner) than they’ve had in weeks. With star receiver Nico Collins out for the Texans, the Colts’ defense could have an edge here as well.

Indianapolis has been consistent at covering the spread, going 5-1 ATS this season. The Colts’ situational edge, combined with Houston’s potential distractions, makes Indianapolis a strong play at +5. Expect a focused Colts team ready to take advantage of the circumstances.

    Pick: Colts +5


    Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders

    This AFC West matchup has two of our strongest “under” systems active, and given both teams’ recent performances, it’s easy to see why. The undefeated Chiefs have leaned on their defense to keep their winning streak alive, despite dealing with numerous injuries. Their game plan likely involves a run-heavy approach featuring Kareem Hunt and Samaje Perine, while DeAndre Hopkins, a recent addition, may have limited impact after just joining the team.

    On the other side, the Raiders’ offense has struggled significantly, ranking 29th in Offensive DVOA, indicating they’re one of the least efficient offensive units in the league. The Chiefs’ defense should be able to contain them effectively, making it unlikely that Las Vegas will put up many points.

    Given these factors, the under at 41.5 looks appealing, as both teams seem positioned for a low-scoring contest.


    Pick: Chiefs/Raiders Under 41.5


    Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    The Buccaneers head into this game on short rest and significantly weakened by the loss of both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. With limited offensive options, Tampa Bay faces a difficult matchup against a Falcons team that’s eager to put last week’s disappointing home loss to the Seahawks behind them.

    Historically, teams that suffer an unexpected loss at home as favorites often bounce back strong in their following game. The Falcons’ status as road favorites here suggests confidence from oddsmakers that Atlanta can deliver a solid rebound. Their determination is further fueled by Kirk Cousins’ incredible 500+ yard passing performance last month, setting a high bar for the offense to match. There’s an additional Baller System backing a favorite off a game with low turnovers – a potential sign they will protect the ball and put themselves in a better position to win.

    Signs point to Atlanta covering the spread here, and we like them at -2.5.



    Pick: Falcons -2.5






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    NFL Blitz: Week 8

    Posted on by Ronald Cabang

    Welcome to “NFL Blitz,” where we give you in-depth analysis on every game, every week! We’re not here to pick sides – we’re here to explore the “why” behind each matchup. Our goal is to arm you with the knowledge to make your own informed choices:

    • Why each team could cover the spread – uncover key factors that favor both sides.
    • Why the game could go over or under – we dive into the stats, matchups, and situations that point to both outcomes.

    We give you the “what ifs” so you understand the paths each game could take. No hot takes or hype, just sharp analysis to help you see both sides and make educated decisions. Whether you’re betting, setting up fantasy lineups, or just following the action, this weekly article is the ultimate guide to the NFL week ahead.


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    Detroit Lions vs. Tennessee Titans

    Why Detroit will cover:

    • Jared Goff is performing at an MVP level and has built strong chemistry with his receivers, posing a significant threat to the Titans’ weakened secondary.
    • Despite Tennessee’s solid run defense, Jahmyr Gibbs can exploit mismatches in the Titans’ linebacker coverage as a receiver, creating high-value plays out of the backfield.

    Why Tennessee will cover:

    • Detroit is in a “sandwich” spot, potentially looking past this game toward a divisional showdown with the Packers, which may reduce their intensity.
    • Mason Rudolph’s conservative play may reduce turnovers, keeping Tennessee in the game for longer and providing an opportunity to cover as underdogs.

    Why game will go over:

    • Detroit’s explosive passing game can capitalize on Tennessee’s injury-depleted secondary, with potential for high-impact, deep throws.
    • Will Levis’ return, if it happens, brings a high-variance style that could contribute big plays for both offenses through turnovers and deep shots.

    Why game will go under:

    • Tennessee’s conservative approach with Rudolph may limit offensive production, leaning toward shorter drives and fewer scoring chances.
    • Detroit’s strong run defense will force Tennessee to rely on low-percentage passing plays, limiting sustained drives and potential points.


    Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens

    Why Cleveland will cover:

    • Jameis Winston brings a more reliable passing game to Cleveland, improving their chances to keep up offensively. He’ll benefit from Njoku’s healthy presence and Tillman’s recent solid performance.
    • Baltimore’s secondary ranks low in defensive EPA (23rd), creating opportunities for Cleveland’s passing game to take advantage, especially if Zay Flowers is limited or out.

    Why Baltimore will cover:

    • If Dorian Thompson-Robinson starts, Cleveland’s offense could struggle significantly, as he lacks experience and downfield passing reliability.
    • Cleveland’s defense has been strong, but they have weaknesses against top receivers. Even with Flowers possibly limited, Baltimore has options to challenge Cleveland’s secondary.

    Why game will go over:

    • Winston’s willingness to take deep shots could lead to quick scoring drives or turnovers, both of which favor a higher score.
    • If Baltimore’s defense, playing on short rest, struggles to contain Cleveland’s passing game, it could allow more scoring from both teams.

    Why game will go under:

    • If Thompson-Robinson starts, Cleveland’s offense may be unable to keep pace, leading to a slower game with limited scoring.
    • Cleveland’s strong run defense could force Baltimore to be one-dimensional, reducing the Ravens’ ability to produce consistent scoring drives.


    Green Bay Packers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

    Why Green Bay will cover:

    • Jordan Love’s second-half surge last week could carry into this game, especially with Jacksonville’s 27th-ranked defensive EPA and struggles against the pass.
    • The Jaguars’ defense is weak against pass-catching backs, making Josh Jacobs a potential mismatch as a receiver, which could boost Green Bay’s offense.

    Why Jacksonville will cover:

    • The Packers may lack focus due to an upcoming divisional game against the Lions, potentially impacting their performance.
    • If Jacksonville leans on their rushing attack, Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne could find success against Green Bay’s run defense, helping control the clock and keep the game close.

    Why game will go over:

    • Green Bay’s passing weapons like Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks could capitalize on Jacksonville’s vulnerable secondary, leading to quick scores.
    • Jacksonville’s potential to exploit Green Bay’s defense through the run game could lead to consistent, high-yardage drives and scoring opportunities.

    Why game will go under:

    • If Green Bay’s strong pass rush disrupts Trevor Lawrence, it could stifle Jacksonville’s passing attack, slowing down their scoring pace.
    • The Packers’ solid defense, paired with Jacksonville’s ability to defend the run, may limit both teams’ offensive efficiency, creating a slower, lower-scoring game.


    Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts

    Why Houston will cover:

    • The Texans’ defense has been solid against the run recently, and with the Colts leaning on Jonathan Taylor’s return, they may struggle to find offensive rhythm if the Texans can contain him.
    • C.J. Stroud, despite missing Nico Collins, has shown resilience and an ability to adapt, and if Houston’s offense can capitalize on turnovers or short-field situations, they can keep pace with the Colts.

    Why Indianapolis will cover:

    • Anthony Richardson had his best game of the season against Houston’s defense in Week 1, using his scrambling ability to exploit their weaknesses against mobile quarterbacks.
    • With Jonathan Taylor potentially returning, the Colts’ rushing attack gains versatility, making them harder to defend against and giving Richardson play-action opportunities.

    Why game will go over:

    • Houston’s tendency to play a conservative, run-heavy game might open up unexpected downfield shots if Indianapolis can pressure them to score, leading to potential quick scores or turnovers.
    • Richardson’s big-play potential as a dual-threat quarterback, combined with Houston’s struggles against mobile QBs, could lead to explosive plays on both sides, increasing the point total.

    Why game will go under:

    • Houston’s predictable play-calling and reliance on the run game may lead to slower drives and less offensive production, limiting their scoring chances.
    • Both defenses have strengths that can disrupt each offense’s primary playmakers, slowing down drives and keeping the scoring lower than expected.

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    Miami Dolphins vs. Arizona Cardinals

    Why Miami will cover:

    • If Tua Tagovailoa starts, Miami’s offense should be able to take advantage of Arizona’s 24th-ranked run defense, especially with the depth in their backfield.
    • Miami’s passing options in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle present challenges even for average secondaries, allowing Tagovailoa or Tyler Huntley to find success through explosive plays if utilized effectively.

    Why Arizona will cover:

    • Kyler Murray’s mobility and James Conner’s strong run game can exploit Miami’s weaknesses in run defense, especially with Miami ranking 19th against the run.
    • If Tagovailoa returns from a concussion, there is a risk of a slower start as he readjusts, which could allow Arizona to build an early lead or keep the game close.

    Why game will go over:

    • Miami’s potential for big plays through Hill and Waddle, combined with Arizona’s vulnerability to the pass, sets up for a high-scoring affair, especially if Tagovailoa is active.
    • Arizona’s ground game, led by Conner, and Miami’s struggles against the run could lead to consistent scoring opportunities from both sides.

    Why game will go under:

    • If Tagovailoa plays cautiously or Huntley starts, Miami’s offense may run conservatively, slowing the game pace and limiting scoring.
    • Arizona’s focus on running the ball to exploit Miami’s weaker run defense could also lead to clock-consuming drives, which would help keep the score lower.


    Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons

    Why Tampa Bay will cover:

    • Despite missing Evans and potentially Godwin, Tampa Bay could find success in the run game, as Atlanta’s run defense has struggled, allowing Bucky Irving, Sean Tucker, and Rachaad White to be effective.
    • Atlanta’s weak pass rush may give Baker Mayfield the time he needs to work short-to-intermediate routes with secondary receivers, potentially sustaining drives and keeping the game within reach.

    Why Atlanta will cover:

    • Tampa Bay’s weakened receiver corps limits their offensive ceiling, making it challenging to consistently move the ball through the air against even a below-average secondary.
    • With Tampa Bay missing key players on defense, especially in the secondary, Desmond Ridder and Atlanta’s offense can take advantage with big plays in the passing game.

    Why game will go over:

    • Both defenses have significant vulnerabilities; Atlanta’s weak pass rush and Tampa’s secondary injuries could result in unexpected offensive production for both teams.
    • If Tampa Bay can establish a run game, it could create opportunities for play-action shots downfield, potentially leading to high-impact plays and scoring drives.

    Why game will go under:

    • The absence of key offensive playmakers like Evans and Godwin for Tampa Bay may lead to a slower-paced game, with Tampa leaning on the ground game and conservative passing.
    • Both teams’ offenses could stall given the Buccaneers’ lack of receiving threats and the Falcons’ inconsistent offensive execution, leading to fewer scoring opportunities.


    New York Jets vs. New England Patriots

    Why New York will cover:

    • Aaron Rodgers and the Jets’ offense should capitalize on New England’s poor secondary, especially with Davante Adams back, which should allow them to move the ball through the air.
    • New England’s run defense has been weak, making this an excellent opportunity for the Jets to exploit it with Breece Hall, who can help control the game and set up play-action.

    Why New England will cover:

    • The Jets’ inconsistencies and turnover issues from last game could resurface, particularly if they overlook the Patriots after having won the previous matchup.
    • New England’s Drake Maye has shown flashes despite rookie mistakes, and if the Jets’ secondary is missing key players, he might find some success moving the ball.

    Why game will go over:

    • With the Jets likely to exploit New England’s weak run and pass defense, Rodgers and Hall could produce multiple scoring drives.
    • If the Jets jump out to an early lead, it could force New England to abandon the run and rely on Maye’s passing game, increasing scoring opportunities on both sides.

    Why game will go under:

    • The Jets’ offensive inconsistencies and turnover issues, paired with New England’s limited offensive capabilities, could lead to a slow-paced, low-scoring game.
    • Both teams may rely on their run games due to defensive vulnerabilities, leading to time-consuming drives and fewer scoring chances.


    Philadelphia Eagles vs. Cincinnati Bengals

    Why Philadelphia will cover:

    • Saquon Barkley has been explosive, and with Cincinnati’s struggles against the run, he should be able to help the Eagles control the game and set up their passing attack.
    • With A.J. Brown and other downfield threats, Jalen Hurts has options to exploit the Bengals’ weak secondary, especially given Cincinnati’s issues with No. 1 receivers.

    Why Cincinnati will cover:

    • The Bengals’ passing attack, led by Joe Burrow, has favorable matchups against Philadelphia’s secondary, especially with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins poised to stretch the field.
    • Philadelphia’s shaky left tackle situation could leave Jalen Hurts exposed, allowing Cincinnati’s defense to generate pressure and disrupt the Eagles’ offense.

    Why game will go over:

    • Both offenses have potent passing options that can capitalize on each defense’s vulnerabilities, creating the potential for a high-scoring shootout.
    • Cincinnati’s need to keep pace with Philadelphia could lead to an uptempo game with more frequent scoring opportunities on both sides.

    Why game will go under:

    • Philadelphia’s run-heavy approach with Barkley may eat up clock, reducing the total number of possessions and scoring chances.
    • If Cincinnati’s offensive line struggles to protect Burrow, it could limit their ability to capitalize on the Eagles’ defensive weaknesses, leading to fewer points than expected.


    Buffalo Bills vs. Seattle Seahawks

    Why Buffalo will cover:

    • The recent addition of Amari Cooper adds depth and a true No. 1 threat, challenging Seattle’s secondary, which has struggled against top receivers and tight ends.
    • Buffalo has begun to develop a balanced offensive attack with Ray Davis and James Cook, which can exploit Seattle’s 30th-ranked defense against the run, allowing for control of the game tempo.

    Why Seattle will cover:

    • Kenneth Walker’s expanded role as a pass-catcher could exploit Buffalo’s struggles against receiving backs, providing Seattle with a consistent offensive outlet.
    • With D.K. Metcalf potentially sidelined, Buffalo’s defensive focus will shift heavily to Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but Seattle’s offensive creativity can still keep them in the game.

    Why game will go over:

    • Buffalo’s offensive potency, combined with Seattle’s defensive vulnerabilities, suggests opportunities for high-scoring drives on both sides, especially with Cooper and Kincaid drawing mismatches.
    • Seattle’s versatile offense, with Walker involved in both rushing and receiving, could keep the scoring pace high as both teams aim to trade blows.

    Why game will go under:

    • The absence of Metcalf for Seattle limits their big-play potential, and the Bills may focus on a balanced, clock-controlling approach with their newly developed running game.
    • If Buffalo’s defense can contain Seattle’s remaining receivers and focus on slowing Walker, it could result in a more methodical, lower-scoring game.


    Los Angeles Chargers vs. New Orleans Saints

    Why Los Angeles will cover:

    • Justin Herbert has an opportunity to exploit a weakened Saints secondary, particularly if either starting cornerback remains sidelined, allowing Ladd McConkey to thrive in the slot.
    • The Saints’ struggles against the run should allow J.K. Dobbins to find success on the ground, providing balance to the Chargers’ offense.

    Why New Orleans will cover:

    • New Orleans may be regaining several key players this week, including offensive linemen and skill players like Chris Olave, which could give their offense a much-needed boost.
    • The Chargers are in a tough scheduling spot, having just played on Monday night, which historically leads to a lower cover rate, especially on short rest.

    Why game will go over:

    • Both teams face defensive weaknesses that can be exploited: the Chargers can capitalize on New Orleans’ weak secondary, while the Saints, with reinforcements, could find offensive success against a fatigued Chargers squad.
    • Herbert’s pass-first approach, combined with the Saints’ reliance on Alvin Kamara and returning receivers, can lead to high yardage and scoring.

    Why game will go under:

    • If the Chargers establish a solid run game to control the clock, it could limit the total number of possessions and reduce scoring chances.
    • Spencer Rattler’s inexperience and the Chargers’ strong pass rush could lead to stalled drives, turnovers, and fewer points for New Orleans.


    Washington Redskins vs. Chicago Bears

    Why Washington will cover:

    • Brian Robinson has a favorable matchup against Chicago’s run defense, potentially allowing Washington to control the clock and keep the game close, especially if Mariota can manage the offense effectively.
    • The Bears’ secondary struggles could give Mariota some room to work with short, high-percentage passes, which might help limit the impact of Chicago’s pressure on him.

    Why Chicago will cover:

    • With Jayden Daniels likely sidelined, the Bears’ sixth-ranked pressure rate can rattle Marcus Mariota, who may struggle behind Washington’s shaky offensive line.
    • D’Andre Swift’s recent improvements as a runner and pass-catcher will likely challenge Washington’s questionable run defense, creating openings for Caleb Williams and Chicago’s talented receiving corps.

    Why game will go over:

    • If both teams can exploit the weaknesses in each other’s run defense, there’s potential for explosive plays and sustained drives, leading to a higher score.
    • The Bears’ offense, with Williams finding time to throw, should be able to generate consistent scoring opportunities against Washington’s vulnerable secondary.

    Why game will go under:

    • Mariota’s limited downfield passing game and Washington’s reliance on the run with Robinson could lead to a slow-paced, low-scoring game.
    • If Chicago’s defense pressures Mariota effectively and limits Washington’s offensive output, the Redskins could struggle to put up points, keeping the total low.

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    Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders

    Why Kansas City will cover:

    • Patrick Mahomes can rely on the run game with Kareem Hunt against a Raiders defense that struggles to stop the run, creating easier opportunities for Mahomes to manage the offense without key receivers.
    • Kansas City’s elite pressure rate will likely force Gardner Minshew into turnovers, capitalizing on his tendency to make mistakes when under heavy pressure.

    Why Las Vegas will cover:

    • Kansas City may lack full motivation after an emotional win against the 49ers, potentially experimenting with plays and formations, which could allow the Raiders to keep the game closer.
    • The Raiders’ defense, despite recent setbacks, has defended tight ends well this season, which could limit Mahomes’ options if his primary receivers are unavailable.

    Why game will go over:

    • Kansas City’s creative offense, even with limited playmakers, could still find ways to put points on the board, especially if the Raiders can’t sustain their defense against the run.
    • If Minshew finds success targeting Brock Bowers, it could keep the Raiders in the game and increase the scoring pace on both sides.

    Why game will go under:

    • With Mahomes possibly leaning on the running game due to missing receivers, Kansas City could slow the game’s tempo, leading to fewer total possessions and points.
    • Kansas City’s pass rush and strong run defense may prevent the Raiders from sustaining drives, keeping the overall score lower.


    Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers

    Why Denver will cover:

    • Carolina’s defense is among the worst in the league, ranking last in pressure rate despite frequent blitzing, which should give Bo Nix plenty of time to connect with open receivers.
    • Javonte Williams faces a favorable matchup against a Panthers run defense that has been consistently overpowered, allowing Denver to control the game on the ground.

    Why Carolina will cover:

    • Coming off a blowout loss, the Panthers have a chance to keep this game close as Denver may be overlooking them with Baltimore on deck.
    • Denver’s recent win may lead to overvaluation, while Carolina, despite struggles, has shown the ability to move the ball occasionally under Andy Dalton, though this is limited with Bryce Young starting.

    Why game will go over:

    • Denver’s offensive efficiency, especially on the ground with Williams and with Nix’s ample time in the pocket, could result in a high-scoring game if Carolina’s defense fails to make stops.
    • Carolina’s defense has given up points consistently, and even a limited Denver offense should be able to score, especially if turnovers from the Panthers contribute to short-field situations.

    Why game will go under:

    • With Bryce Young back in at quarterback, Carolina’s offense may struggle to sustain drives against a high-pressure Denver defense, reducing scoring chances.
    • Denver may lean heavily on the run game with Williams, which could drain the clock and limit the total number of possessions.


    San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys

    Why San Francisco will cover:

    • The Cowboys’ lack of pass rush due to injuries to Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence should give Brock Purdy ample time in the pocket, enabling him to connect with his remaining healthy targets.
    • Jordan Mason has a favorable matchup against Dallas’ weak run defense, which could allow San Francisco to control the clock and the tempo of the game.

    Why Dallas will cover:

    • San Francisco’s offense is heavily impacted by injuries, particularly to Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Jauan Jennings, potentially limiting their scoring capacity.
    • The Cowboys may capitalize on mismatches with Jalen Tolbert and Rico Dowdle, exploiting San Francisco’s relative weakness to secondary receivers and pass-catching running backs.

    Why game will go over:

    • Both teams may be forced to lean on their remaining offensive strengths, with San Francisco pounding the run and Dallas seeking quick, efficient passing plays to compensate for line issues, resulting in scoring drives on both ends.
    • If Dallas’ weakened pass rush allows Purdy to operate comfortably, San Francisco’s offense could find rhythm and sustain high-scoring drives despite missing key players.

    Why game will go under:

    • With major injuries on both sides affecting offensive production, each team may struggle to find consistency, especially if San Francisco lacks key playmakers and Dallas contends with offensive line struggles.
    • San Francisco’s strong defensive front could disrupt Dallas’ offense, while San Francisco’s run-heavy approach with Mason may slow down the game, reducing scoring opportunities.


    Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Giants

    Why Pittsburgh will cover:

    • If Russell Wilson’s resurgence continues, he can exploit a Giants’ defense that lacks consistent pass rush despite some talent, especially if George Pickens continues his success with contested catches.
    • Pittsburgh’s defensive front, led by T.J. Watt, can capitalize on the Giants’ injury-weakened offensive line, forcing Daniel Jones into hurried throws and potential turnovers.

    Why New York will cover:

    • The Steelers’ offensive line is weakened, giving the Giants’ pass rush an opportunity to disrupt Wilson and prevent him from finding a rhythm.
    • The Steelers have struggled historically as favorites following a big win, and the Giants, coming off a blowout loss, are likely to be more motivated and play at a higher level in this spot.

    Why game will go over:

    • Both defenses have vulnerabilities, and with contested deep throws from Wilson and occasional big plays from Tyrone Tracy, both offenses could generate enough points to push the total over.
    • If the Giants’ defense struggles to contain Pickens and Watt disrupts the Giants’ pass game, short fields and quick scoring drives could make for a higher-scoring game.

    Why game will go under:

    • The pass rushes from both teams could stall drives and lead to a defensive battle, with Pittsburgh’s O-line injuries and the Giants’ pressure on Wilson limiting offensive production.
    • New York’s weakened offensive line, combined with their limited ground game, might struggle to sustain drives, slowing the game pace and reducing total points.