Category: Betting

The Mystics last game started both Austin and Iriafen to match with Chicago’s size, and ended up winning that game by 7. Should happen again as they move Dolson to the bench.

The strength of this lineup is easily their movement, which allows them to do a lot of trapping off screens and rotate around easily. Against Chicago last game, they trapped Atkins off screens almost every single time, as both Iriafen and Austin are capable.

However, the drawback is liking against these big bodies inside, especially those who are able to cut or sit in dunker’s spot. Atkins notched 7 assists last game off of 11 potentials. Rhyne Howard in games with double digit potentials has notched:
– 9, 4, 6, 5, 7, 10 and 6 assists

Despite this pressure off screens, WSH still allows a ton of 3PA from ATB. All 5 of the players to average >5 3PA on the year notched 6+ vs WSH this month. Keep in mind that they held Atkins to just 1 3PA, which may be a similar focus on Rhyne.

Think Brionna is the best of these bigs at effectively cutting and finding space, while BG prefers to just look for a Post Up or pop for a 3ball. Griner was also downgraded to Q, which would be a benefit.

— DAL v CON —

The Wings’ only win of the season came against Connecticut, by 20. This game on the back of Paige’s 7 assists, which came on the back of 16 potentials.

Connecticut, in all there struggles, are allowing the most Fastbreak Pts and rank B3 in OPP PITP along with OPP APG. This is also going to be their 4th game in 6 days, as this schedule continues to be brutal. Tina Charles was practically rested in the 2H vs PHX last game, being the 2nd leg of a b2b (which Charles never suited up for last season), so likely the most energized piece for CON today.

Mabrey has now notched double-digit potentials in 5 straight games. We’ve had some solid quotes from her on handling duties as the Sun continue to drop games: “I think it starts with me being more assertive at the one, like making sure that I poise the team and calm us down and make sure that we get the ball where we want it to go and get it from side to side, so that’s on me for sure.”

Without McCowan and Siegrist, Wings starting 5 have produced just 5 OREB per game, which has helped smaller guards in being effective on the glass. Gray, Loyd, Jackie and Burton all notched 3+ in the 2 games without them.

— SEA v LVA —

A’ja Wilson has missed three days due to her concussion protocol, so likely back today. Much needed, as The Aces have been beaten to a pulp by Seattle before, and have dropped two straight as they now enter a 4 game home stretch – need to pick up as many wins as possible.

While both Jackie and Chelsea have notched double digit potentials in the last 5 games, subsequently including the 3 games without A’ja, Jackie has only mustered up 5 potentials per game against Seattle with Gabby Williams defending her.

Gabby Williams has been the best Seattle player this season, shooting 50-43-85 splits while leading the team in minutes, passing production and taking on POA defensive duties. Is Q today with an ankle injury vs LA, but expecting her to suit up.

She led SEA in offensive production last meeting vs LVA off 18 FGA, as The Aces remain an incredibly porous interior defense.

ATL v NYL:

Jonquel is officially day-to-day, yet Brondello already said that she will play, and that won’t be with any restrictions. Her presence will be huge against this Dream team who are surprisingly struggling against Post Up (12th) and PnR overall as a system (10th). Likely the attack of Griner’s drop coverage.

We have seen frequent PnR Roll bigs notch good volume, such as:
– Cardoso/Williams 20 FGA
– Iriafen/Shakira 20 FGA
– Boston 9 FGA

Jonquel notched 20, 17 and 15 Pts vs Griner last season. Jonquel’s usage this season has remained at 25.3% – over 5% higher than in 2024. Oddly enough, no player has notched over 6 assists vs ATL in all of June. Unsure completely why, but ATL has been weak to Pullup shots and Off Screen work, so more individual action.

Stewart with Jonquel has produced less often, notching 30+ PRA in just 2/7 games. With Sabally also in the frontcourt now, Stewart can focus less on the glass. The only player to even notch over 20 Pts vs ATL in June was Mabrey, who did it out of the PnR role where she picked Griner apart off her jumpshots. Sabrina or Cloud likely to take that production.

Cloud hasn’t notched double-digit scoring outings for 7 straight NYL games, so it’s really hard to promote her despite what should be a quality matchup.

Allisha Gray just notched her career high in Pts last game at 32, get that lady in the All Star games. She is currently third is PPG this season at 21, behind just Clark (21.6) and Napheesa (26!!). While Gray’s perimeter shooting has been sensational this season (42%), she still has a player archetype that prefers to go downhill and slash.

All year, only one non-frontcourt player has notched over 3 FGM at the Rim vs The Liberty (Kelsey Mitchell, 4). Hard to get inside, and Clark did a majority of her damage from deep last game (7/14).

Griner since her injury has averaged just 14.8 PRA per game, compared to 23 PRA per game before it.

The Dream have a solid rotation of backcourt defenders with Canada back in the mix. We saw Sykes last game for WSH get an assortment of matchups, typically being Gray or Rhyne, while the other took Citron. Rhyne took Clark in the fever matchups,Canada should be focused on pressuring Cloud, yet whoever takes Sabrina is going to struggle on the glass.

Clark is the only non frontcourt player to notch over 5 rebounds vs NYL all year, while both Gray and Rhyne are set at 5.5.

CON v IND:

Saniya Rivers was listed available to play last game vs Chicago, yet didn’t end up playing – guess the illness she was dealing with was still persevering. Bonner is out for personal reasons, but given she is dead-last in the entire league in NETRTG (-33.2), this may just be a positive.

The big storyline here though is that The Fever are in a three-way tie with ATL/NYL in Cup standings. While they would need ATL to lose one of their final games vs NYL & WSH, a big win here in addition to that scenario would help their chances at home court in the final. The Lynx on the other end has a +63 differential through 5 games, while IND is +31 through 4, so expect these starters to search for a >30 Pt win and get some deeper blowout run.

CON is about as bad as you can be after losing to Chicago. In June, this team is ranking:
– 13th in DRTG (115.5 – next closest is 110.1)
– 13th in ORTG (86.5)
– 13th in Pts off Fastbreak (18.3 – next closest is 14.6)
– 13th in OPP APG, OPP C RPG
– 13th in Cup differential (-89)

Those who can get inside on CON, especially if they can operate in fastbreak, has thrived recently:
– Angel 11 Pts (2-7)
– Iriafen 12 (8 FGA), Sykes 28 Pts (12 FGA)
– Brionna 8 FGA (24min), Gray 13 FGA
– Jonquel 13 Pts (7 FGA, 23min)

Boston has a great trait of being able to seal quickly in transition, while also averaging 20 PPG in games with 24+ min and Clark this season. She ended on a 7/8 run with the same constraints to close out last season, also got up to 11 potentials last game.

No team has allowed more PITP than Indiana has in June, which has been an astounding 41.5 per game. NYL just notched 44 despite Clark back and in a loss (granted, still 88 Pts scored). However, slashers like Gray, Sykes and Stewart are 3 of the Top 5 in FGA <8′ in this span. Charles produced 16 FGA last game, but Nelson-Ododa could be better suited after shooting 2/8 in the first meeting.

Mabrey, after loss to Chicago, “I think it starts with me being more assertive at the one, like making sure that I poise the team and calm us down and make sure that we get the ball where we want it to go and get it from side to side, so that’s on me for sure.”

LVA v MIN:

A’ja will remain out due to concussion protocol, and the way the Aces have been playing has been discouraging to a competitive game environment. Even with A’ja, this team has been a B3 Paint defense all season long, and PHX attacked them with 25 FGA in the Paint.

Alanna Smith, as always, is back on the table. She averaged 31.6 fantasy points vs LVA last season despite just 28 minutes per game, a number she can smash as Shepard remains out. Hurt her ankle last game, which she returned from after halftime, yet was also able to sit the 4th quarter due to blowout. Isn’t even is questionable for this meeting.

The Mercury threw up 32 3PA vs LVA last game, who might be focused more on a collapse now that A’ja can’t be there to rim defend. The team is too well coached to not throw the house at Collier, who in turn is too intelligent to force herself into double teams. Napheesa has led the Lynx in potential assists across the last 4 contests, making the right read out of pressure.

I will almost never fade MVPhee, but shooting options like Smith and McBride likely get good volume up.

Young and Chelsea notched 12 and 14 potentials each last game vs PHX, getting to share their duties yet now entering a MIN defense that has ranked Top 3 at limiting OPP APG in both this season and 2024.

WSH v CHI:

Angel Reese with her first career triple-double last game, and also was the fastest forward to achieve a TD in league history. The best part of this game was her 2 turnovers, and WSH defense hasn’t been generating a lot of turnovers in June (10th).

What WSH does allow is a ton of OPP 3PA, at 30.5 per game, which is the most in the league. Chicago doesn’t generate a ton of 3PT looks, but Atkins does have it in her arsenal – while also facing her former team for the first time this season. This could get personal, as she will directly face off with Citron, who WSH drafted with the first round pick that they traded Atkins for.

The Mystics’ last 2 games have both featured >30 Pt margins of victory/defeat, yet Kiki Iriafen was pacing for her usual 27 minutes last game. This is encouraging, as she is in a highly competitive WSH backcourt that includes Austin & Edwards. What we got from Stanley the game before:

“With Kiki having a wonderful start and Kira having some really good minutes… it’s hard… Sika’s work ethic hasn’t dipped… it’s some amount of time, but it’s also just having a lot of good players in the front court and some depth there.”

Iriafen faces a CHI defense that is B3 vs Putbacks, PnR Roll Man and Transition.

GSV v DAL:

The Wings are already 1-11, but now their IR continues to grow. Ty Harris is already missing the entire season from her knee injury, and now Maddy Siegrist fractured her knee, won’t be season-long but for the foreseeable future. McCowan and Geiselsoder are two bigs off to EuroBasket, so the frontcourt is very depleted.

As you could imagine, DAL is super bad. They are currently surrendering 16.4 stocks per game in June, allowing the most blocks and the most steals against them. The 4 Centers to face DAL in this month have all notched 2+ blocks (Ezi 5, Alanna 4, Azura 3, Mack 2 in 13min), while 13 players notched multiple steals.

However, Valks don’t currently have a real Center, as Fagbenle has left to participate in EuroBasket. Her, Salaun, Vanloo and Zandalasini are the EU inactives. Thus, the frontcourt is only Thornton and Billings, while Talbot & Amihere can add a bit of size for the SF/PF spots.

Billings has 6+ Reb in 17/19 games where she saw just 22+ minutes. She’s been a journeyman, but DAL is on the list of former teams.

The Valkyries have won three games straight, and in those three we saw Thornton produce a double-double in each of them, averaging 33.3 PRA per game.

Meanwhile, Burton has came absolutely alive in tandem, producing 9 APG in that span off 16.6 potentials – despite one of them being alongside Vanloo in the starting line. Her FS is only adjusting for 1 stock off PRA line, despite averaging over 2 stocks a game. The Wings are B3 in OPP APG, while Diggins-Smith is the only guard to notch under 3 reb with >28min of action vs DAL in June. The notable figures:
– McBride/Carleton 3, 5
– Sims/Plum 3, 5
– Whitcomb 7
– Jackie 5

Plum, Williams and Wheeler all notched 10+ RA vs DAL of their 4 games in June.

We need to have some conversations about DiJonai Carrington. The Wings have a NETRTG of +12.4 with her off the court, compared to -15.1 with her on, leaving her individually with a NETRTG of -27.5. No one else on this team is even in double digits! This means nothing for prop betting as long as Koclanes refuses to acknowledge analytics and DAL remains injured, but worth noting.

Valks defense is another team that is struggling to defend the arc, while loving to show collapse on the inside. This unit has ranked Top 3 at limiting PnR Roll Man (2nd), Post Up (3rd) and Rim FGM (1st). Paige has now shot 19 times in the last 2 games, but Nakase is aware enough to look to limit her completely.

SEA v LAS:

Kelsey Plum is out for LA with a lower leg injury. Sparks have already been a bottom tier defense, but now will also see some offensive struggles. Game may not be competitive, yet LA’s weakness on defense has been their perimeter D, which doesn’t align with the slashing SEA offense.

Gabby Williams has now notched double-digit potentials in 4 straight games, tying Diggins-Smith in potentials in that span, which makes the constant discrepancy in their lines odd. Williams has o21.5 PRA in 5/6 wins this season and fantasy in 4 of those. Sparks are a B3 OPP STCK team in June.

Will kick off with the most notable reporter notes:

The Indiana starting 5 actually beat OKC 41-39 last game (in 16 minutes), while any other 5-man lineup was outscored by 18 points in the other 32 minutes. In the NBA Finals, the Indiana Pacers have a +3.3 NETRTG with Haliburton is on the court and a -34.9 NETRTG when off.

Haliburton also noted that he has been starting bad, and that The Pacers must start strong and “have to figure out how to be better earlier in games…”

As we have seen so often in this postseason run, Haliburton did have an ultra-productive 4th quarter, notching 12 points and 2 assists in those 8 minutes of run. Tyrese had 4 of his 5 makes come off action with Myles Turner, to attack the Hartenstein drop coverage and get Haliburton moving downhill. In turn, Turner had 2 assists in his 5 minutes from handoffs to Tyrese.

Carlisle: “There are so many things that have to go right on a set of two possessions to get the ball into the heart of their defense. You know, you’ve got to get a stop, a rebound. You’ve got to be able to get the ball up the floor without a turnover, and then you have to be able to get it to the lane and to the rim. It’s a tough task.”

The OKC defense has switched to a single big for this series, which makes sense given this matchup. The way Chet has defended Turner has been completely relaxed, and he produced 17 rebound chances as a product of that.

However, Pacers decided that Chet roaming free as a rim protection anchor is not ideal, so they went straight at him out of half. Possession log out of half:
– Turner drive on Chet (fouled)
– Turner 3PA
– Turner Elbow Jumper
– Turner drive (fouled)
– Turner post up (fouled)
– Turner drive layup attempt
– Turner 3PA

After this run, Hartenstein subbed in pretty fast, cutting Chet’s rotation to just under 3 minutes. Turner in that 2H notched 8 FGA, 3 from deep, and produced 12 points. He ended with 5 FGA on both Holmgren and Hartenstein individually, yet all of his FTA & 3 of his 3PA vs on Chet.

Turner and Siakam both should see big rises in usage for Game 3. Pascal Siakam had just 1 post possession last game, with Tyrese noting during the game (mic’d up), “Keep sealing! Just keep doing it! I’ll get it to you, come on!”. Siakam notched 3 2H FGA last game. A goal of Indiana has to be to get him more immediate touches, especially on SGA. If game runs through Siakam, then Holmgren rebounds is back on the table – but hard to rely on him staying on the court.

When looking at the Indiana defense, the main problems that have arose were OKC’s PnR and Haliburton facing offball screens. OKC in Game 2 had an average Pick-and-Roll start distance of 29.2′ – which was the highest mark of their entire season, practically starting at the logo. Of course this was productive, as they produced 1.3 Pts per possession that featured PnR.

Indiana should look to pursue going under on screens, which would return SGA back to being a Pullup 3PT shooter – similar to how Minnesota treated him defensively.

Carlisle: “We’re going to need our crowd. Caruso and Wiggins, both those guys shot it well and caused other problems… Shai you can mark down for 34 points before they even get on the play, the guy is going to score. We got to find ways to make it tough on him.“

Granted, it is hard to beat Shai when he is playing at his own tempo amidst the Indiana swarm. Shai had fewer zero-pass possessions in Game 2 than in Game 1, while also throwing in 8 assists. “I thought his floor game tonight was really, really in a great rhythm,” Daigneault said after Game 2.  

Read an article the other day called, “The Answer to Every Question is Alex Caruso”, and wanted to throw out some great points from that piece.  On top of ranking first in defensive estimated plus-minus (for the second time in three years) this season, Caruso also finished second among rotation players in “total field goal difference percentage”—which measures the difference in opponent field goal percentage when he contested any shot on the court—and fifth in total points saved per 100 contests (minimum 1,000 minutes).

Through 2 games, Haliburton has yet to score on Caruso, while he has held the trio of Siakam, Hali and Nembhard to combined 3-13 shooting.

From SGA, “He plays defense off of feel and awareness, almost like a lot of guys play offense. It’s pretty special to see up close and personal every day. It’s literally a talent of his, to feel the game the way he does defensively.”

While the Valkyries’ road matchup vs LA may seem like just another regular season match, yet the actual makeup of the Golden State roster is going to be seeing massive changes with the presence of EuroBasket.

The biannual EuroBasket club tournament is an important event for both Olympic qualifiers and for the international players themselves. This tournament, which begins June 18th, brings concern to the depth of the Valkyries’ – whose 13 lady roster possessed 6 European players. Here is what we know so far:
– Kyara Linskens (Belgium) was waived
– Zandalasini (Italian) is currently suspended to play for EuroBasket, out today
– Fagbenle, Vanloo and Salaun are all committed for EuroBasket, but departure is unknown

Today would be the last game for the latter group anyways, as The Valkyries next game is all the way on June 14th – just 4 days before the international tournament. It is typical for players to return to their tournament teams 10 days before, so some rule outs today wouldn’t be surprising.

The issue that will face The Valks is their frontcourt depth, losing 3 of their top 4 frontcourt rotational players. Expect Billings to get a huge leap in usage once Fagbenle and Salaun are officially departed. With Hayes (nose) still out, expect the crew of Martin, Talbot and Carla Leite (French rookie not playing Euros) to see good rotational minutes.

The Sparks defense has been porous, specifically to the perimeter. LAS is surrendering the 2nd most OPP 3PA, most from ATB, while otherwise mostly struggling on Pts off TOV. Meanwhile, Nakase’s roster has led in 3PT volume, being one of just three teams to notch 30+ attempts per game. Sadly, three of the Top 4 in 3PA for this Valks team are those Europeans setting to depart. Thornton, Burton and Martin are in the mix.

Veronica Burton has completely taken reins, notching 12 assists vs Las Vegas off 21 potentials. Her success as a passer today will be dictated on if the Valkyries offense can stay hot from outside. In the three games that GSV knocked double double-digit 3PM, we saw Burton notch 6, 5 and 12 assists – her top 3 marks of the season.

Kelsey Plum is another name who has been dishing the rock. She has notched 14+ potentials in 7 of 9 LA games this season, which is remarkably consistent. Natasha Cloud is the only player to notch over 7 assists vs The Valks this season, who absolutely love to clog the paint to limit the easy assist opportunities of Pick & Roll (3rd), Rim FGA (1st) and Post Up (2nd).

27 of Plum’s 47 total assists this season have went to Hamby or Stevens. Only Odyssey Sims has received 5+ of the entire rest of the team.

Thus, Plum is most likely to thrive as a scorer here. As the Valks drop coverage + inside help has left high usage guards to thrive in points production. Golden State is in the B3 defenses vs Ball Handling Pts (10th), Spot Up shooting (11th) and Transition scoring (11th). Plum in her opening game with 37 points, is one of 4 guards to notch 20+ Points vs GSV this season.

Burton will be Plum’s defender with Zandalasini gone, which makes her rebound positioning pretty far from the basket. She has notched just 2 rebounds in both games vs Plum, with other defenders notching so:
– Jackie 1
– DiJonai 4 (2 OREB)
– Allisha 5
– Karlie 1

If LAS looks to succeed, need some big games from Rickea Jackson soon. Jackson ended the 2024 season covering her current 12.5 Pt line in 18/18 games where she saw 25+ minutes.

The Indiana Fever have a problem, and it isn’t he current injury to their star in Caitlin Clark – whose aiming to be reevaluated over this weekend; The problem lies in Natasha Howard, whose archetype as a scorer has become problematic for the Indiana offense. Howard last season shot just 26% from non-Paint looks, and this season is 1/13 off those looks. The issue with this is when she shares the court with Aliyah Boston, as that allows the defense to swarm AB and keep the paint packed.

With Cunningham also joining today’s inactive list for Indiana, White can only turn to Dantas and Bonner to stretch the floor while maintaining enough size to guard Angel Reese. Would love to see a Dantas lineup especially, as Bonner has a team-low -3.6 +/- on the year.

Without Cunningham, it is Sydney Colson slated as the starting guard. However, Colson’s age has been showing in her repeated injuries and low gas tank. Welcome Aari McDonald, who just ran 27 minutes vs The Mystics and notched 5 assists along with 7 points and 3 steals.

The Sky’s defense has ranked Bottom 3 against all things handling, including PnR Ball Handlers, Off Screen, Handoff and Isolation. This is screaming for another good game for Kelsey Mitchell, who loves to operate as an offball scorer so her speed can be best utilized downhill. She has opened each of her last 3 meetings with 8+ 1Q points.

Chicago’s offense has come together, with three games now at a -5 or better, compared to their average -24.3 in their first three games. Two key things happened here:
– Angel Reese notched her season-low in potential assists last game (5), and in turn got to be a lot more aggressive in offball drives. She produced 13 FGA.
– Vandersloot finally gets to be what she has built her entire career to be: a passer. She has notched 9 APG across her last three games, with 19+ potentials in each of those three games.

Chicago’s change on how they are initiating their offense should remain true today, as Reese can thrive inside. Bigs have been dominated Indiana: Iriafen 18 PPG, Jonquel 26 Pts, Charles 18 Pts, Brionna 17 Pts.

Jordin Canada is set to make her return for Atlanta today, after suffering a knee injury in the opening minute of their first preseason game. At the time it seemed like a season ender, so I’m glad she is back and so soon. Unlikely to get any comment on minutes until the pregame media conference with Smesko, as we can’t pull from any media availability as The Dream have yet to have a game in June.

Canada has only shown a handful of possessions with this team, but they opened that preseason gave with a mid-PnR with Griner. BG popped, Brionna was on wing, so Atlanta’s spacing looked really promising. ‘Drive and Kick’ should tear The Sun apart today similar to last outing, where The Dream beat The Sun by 24 points. With Canada last season, Rhyne Howard had 5+ assists in just 2/18 games

The 1-6 Sun are currently dead-last in DRTG (112.8) and OPP Pts off TOV allowed. Granted, you would be hard-pressed to find an area that they rank above average in defensively. Two main keys fed into Atlanta’s dominant victory 2 weeks ago:
– Rebounding. ATL notched 52 rebounds (without BG!), with 40 of them coming on the defensive glass off of Connecticut’s 45 total missed shots. With Griner reentering the lineup in favor of Caldwell, we’ll see Allisha Gray shift back to defending Mabrey. Typically Canada takes on POA defense, but unsure if they throw her in that role immediately rather than Sheldon. All 4 of the starting non-Mabrey defenders notched 7+ rebounds for ATL in the prior meeting.
– Tina Charles with a disasterclass, shooting 5-20 with 17 of those shots coming inside the paint. This box score is actually a poor indicator of her actual shot quality, as a ton of these looks were in-and-out.

Griner played just 15 minutes last game, as she checked out in the opening minute of the 2H then never returned. Was on the bench full time, and ATL outscored SEA by 18 points to fuel their comeback win. Smesko noted (on 5/31), “We knew we were not going to get too many minutes for BG, because she had very limited practice, but we know she’s a big part of what we’re doing here. Once we get a few more practices under our belt, I’m sure she’ll get back to what she was doing before her injury”.

Centers have had their way with Connecticut:
– Iriafen 31 PR, A’ja 32 PR, Collier 44 PR, Boston 22 PR (8 A), Jonquel 24 PR

The Wings vs The Sparks could be offensive fireworks, as both these defenses rank in the bottom-third. Each teams’ key defensive weaknesses:
– Sparks: OPP 3PA (12th), 2nd Chance Pts (12th), OPP Stocks (12th)
– Wings: OPP APG (13th), Fastbreak Pts (11th), Midrange (13th)

Hamby, who notched 8, 8 and 6 assists in her three games entering Mercury, ended with just 2 against PHX. The Mercury have been a solid team at limiting PnR success, are are ranking in the Top 3 at limiting potential assists to opposing Centers. Meanwhile, DAL brings good inside pressure, which has left opposing frontcourt players (in the PnR) to notch solid numbers: Magbegor 5, Angel 5 and Collier 3.5.

Arike shot 23.5 FGA per game vs LA last season, yet she has been shooting DAL out of games a lot more than keeping them in them this season. Meanwhile, DiJonai Carrington decided this team is her’s. She shot 21 times vs Seattle, leading the team in USG rate at 23.3%. Dallas lost this game vs Seattle despite outshooting them by 24 shots.

Down to 2. The Thunder were expected to be here despite their young age, as they boasted the best NETRTG in the league at 12.7 – the only team to boast double digits in that category. The Pacers were the risers, being just 13th in NETRTG on the regular season yet rising to be the best offense in the playoffs thus far.

OKC’s defense has had a soft point though: the corner 3. The Thunder have surrendered 11.5 Corner 3PA this postseason (most), making up 30% of the total 3PA they allow. The Pacers are equipped to beat this, as they have shot a league-high 46.9% off Corner 3s in the playoffs. While all 9 of the Pacers’ rotational squad have shot >37% from this zone (insanity), the leaders of this group are:
– Aaron Nesmith, 1.1/2.2 (48.6%)
– Ben Shepard, 0.5/1.2 (37.5%)

Here is how each team’s highest Freq% corner shooter performed vs OKC this year:
– MEM: Aldama 6 3PA/gp (2 Corner)
– DEN: Westbrook 4.6 3PA/gp (2.7), Gordon 4.9 3PA/gp (1.6)
– MIN: McDaniels 5.2 3PA/gp (3), NAW 5.8 3PA/gp (3)

Nesmith, who will also be important defensively to defend Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, is 17/20 on the year to 18+ PRA when he has 30+ minutes on the floor and 3+ 3PA.

Another key of the Thunder defense today will be Hartenstein, as the quick Indiana lineup doesn’t warrant the need for a double-big defense. OKC was 2-0 vs Indiana this season with IHart, yet the only game they won by double digits (21 Points) was when IHart played just 14 minutes due to an injury. Kenrich filled in for 27 minutes (No Holmgren), so they know that spacing can work.

Siakam produced 9.5 rebounds per game against this OKC squad. Indiana was coming off a matchup vs the Knicks who possessed a humongous offensive glass-cleaning unit in KAT & Mitchell Robinson; This matchup left both Siakam and Turner notching 6 or fewer rebounds in every game of the series. In turn, Haliburton averaged 7.5 RPG as he flies in to clear the box outs. Expect these two trends to flip this series.

Last of Indiana is Haliburton on offense. Averaged just 8.5 RA per game and that came with just 11.5 potentials against OKC this regular season – both of these marks being less than half of his average vs The Knicks. OKC being able to switch their defense up top means IND pressure has to come from inside or wings, another motive for Siakam.

OKC offense: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. This may be the best game for his scoring, as the Indiana defense has shied away from double-coverage. This season already, 45 and 33 points for Shai vs IND. Expect Andrew Nembhard to be on Shai. Thought Nesmith like many others, but Nembhard has been the primary guy to slow him down with some help coming off the drives to mix different coverages at him. Overall, getting down the lane should be easy. 33.5 is a pretty fair line, but like his scoring in this matchup as always, 30+ points is a staple parlay leg.

In turn, Indiana’s defense has allowed them to rank Top 3 at limiting Catch-and-Shoot opportunities. This defense also has the ability to turn into offense quickly, as fastbreak makes up a consistent sixth of their total offensive production (Top 5).

Lu Dort has an interesting dilemma for this series. With Jalen Williams on Siakam, Dort would typically take Haliburton – yet OKC can elect to utilize faster perimeter defenders in Wallace and Caruso instead. However, Dort averaged nearly double his current PRA line against this team in the regular season, and despite how IND loves to run single coverage, you can’t expect pure isolation from SGA to be their defensive gameplan.

The Liberty are looking unbeatable, as the defending champs possess a legitimate 9-woman rotation. Already 7-0 on the year and 1-0 in the Commissioner’s Cup, they now have their second cup match vs Washington. Just a week ago, The Liberty beat The Mystics by 22 Points, being their 4th 20+ Pt victory this season as they boast the current highest NETRTG in WNBA history at 25.1.

Brondello, “It’s the Commissioner’s Cup, so we want to run the score up. We still want to play well [the whole game].”
Sabrina, “We want to come out and win every quarter. They’re going to play really hard

After playing 4 games in 6 days, The Liberty now have rested for 4 days before tonight’s contest.

Breanna Stewart has averaged just 4.4 RPG this season, which is just above half of her regular season average last season. She notched just 3 rebounds last game vs Washington despite The Liberty themselves notching a season-high 46 rebounds. While Stewie did defer some rebounds to Jones (18 Reb), her positioning off the paint-heavy Iriafen still should have produced more on the stat sheet. However, Brondello also benched Stewart in the 1H (12min) to favor more size in Kennedy Burke against the Mystics frontcourt of Austin, Dolson, Iriafen and Edwards.

The Mystics are tied with The Lynx in the fewest rebounds allowed per game. Still, 13/15 Forwards/Centers with 25+ minutes have snagged 5+ rebounds vs Washington. Brondello noted, “We know we can be better [at rebounding], it’s a focus of all players. Stewie can get in there a little bit more“

No team has surrendered more Corner 3PA than The Mystics, at 8.7 per game, which is over 30% more than the next worst team. As you could guess, Washington has let up the most OPP 3PA overall, rather focused on guarding the inside. NYL won by 23 while shooting 10-38 from deep despite being the league-leader in 3P% (38.3%). Jonquel, Stewart, Sabrina and Johannes went a combined 6-29.

Jonquel Jones averaging 19.5 PPG last season in games where she made 2 or more 3PT, including three games vs The Mystics (23.3 PPG). She had 14+ Pts in 17/18 games. Now, she has opened up the year with a 5% higher usage rate than in 2024.

Kiki Iriafen just won May’s Rookie of The Month award, averaging a double-double in the first month of her career! Will be interesting to note how head coach Sydney Johnson will manage her, as there is a load of young talent worth developing in that Mystics frontcourt.

Sykes with 20+ Pts in 6 of her 7 games this season, ranking 4th overall in PPG this season. What’s most impressive is her relentless attacking of the basket, which has left her ranking 3rd in % of the team’s fouls drawn (43.4%) – leading all guards by at least double digits. Tough spot today, facing an NYL defense that is 1st in OPP FTM allowed (11.9) and OPP PITP (27.4).

The Phoenix Mercury will remain without Alyssa Thomas for her fourth consecutive game as she deals with a calf injury. They have remained generally steadfast in her absence, yet not without adjustments to the offense. The Mercury have yet to see more than 2 days of rest between any of their games since the season started.

Thibbetts, on 23 point loss vs The Lynx last game, “We’ve got three new players trying to learn a system. Typically we are better at home. They’re a good team.”

The Valkyries, as an offense that loves to live-or-die by the three ball themselves (shoutout Joe Mazulla), have surrendered the 2nd most Corner 3PA and 4th most overall 3PA. PHX is Top 3 in 3PA per game; While their volume hasn’t decrease, The Mercury have made just 23.5% of their 3PA since Thomas got injured, which is 12% worse than their marks before.

Both of these squads are coming off losses to Minnesota, but I think The Valks remain underrated despite the 2-4 record. Nakasa is just locked in as a coach, “I will always tell my team to ‘let it fly’. If it’s not falling, then we have to get back on defense… We can’t have any errors defensively. This team has killer mentality”. The Valks have sold out each of their home games (18,000 seats!).

Hayes got back up to near 15 1H minutes vs Lynx, yet had to sub out immediately at the start of 2H after picking up her 4th foul. Upon returning with 8min left, took a shot to the nose (which is why she has been wearing a mask) and did not return. Questionable for today.

Burton has 30+ minutes played in each game without Hayes this season, while both her and Vanloo boast >30% assist rates with Hayes off the court. It is Salaun, the rookie from France’s national team, who has led in overall usage at 24.9%. Her and Leite, her french teammate, actually take both of the top two spots.

Mercury has a bit of a rebounding issue, practically in a three way tie for allowing the most OPP Reb this season. They have allowed 35 or more rebounds in each of their last 5 games. The Valks, who are 4th best at rebounding this season, have had three games where they notched 35+ themselves:
– 37 vs MIN (Salaun 6 Reb, Burton 5 Reb)
– 41 vs NYL (Salaun 13 Reb, Billings 7 Reb, Burton 6 Reb)
– 37 vs WSH (Burton 9 Reb, Fagbenle 7 Reb)

The Top 10 Rebounders vs PHX this season have all been Power Forwards or Centers, and they all notched 7+ rebounds.

The Commisioner’s Cup continues.

The Clark-less Fever team is looking really bad, now losing both of their games without her to Washington and Connecticut. Offensively it is just a turnover fest, producing 16 per game, only worse than the Sun team (who still beat them). Oddly enough, their Paint defense has suffered the most, now surrendering 40 PITP per game. Each IND opponent had a Guard/Big duo that dominated them:
– Sykes/Iriafen 37 Pts (30 FGA)
– Mabrey/Charles 44 Pts (33 FGA)
– Sabrina/Jonquel 49 Pts (35 FGA)
– Rhyne/Griner 41 Pts (30 FGA)

Despite how strong Iriafen’s rookie campaign has been, she still has to compete in minutes with the rest of WSH’s incredibly young (and talented) frontcourt – which possesses Shakira Austin and Aaliyah Edwards. These two each had a strong offseason for Unrivaled, with Edwards almost winning the 1v1 tournament. With this duo healthy, Iriafen has yet to see over 25 minutes on the floor.

Citron and Sykes combined for 16 rebounds as The Mystics racked up 41 total. Indiana even tied The Sun in rebounds last game, despite Connecticut being the league’s worst rebounding team. 3 guards are dominating the Top 5 rebounding performances vs IND since Clark went out, which makes sense given their offense has to become more frontcourt dependent.

Fever’s offense has to depend on Kelsey Mitchell for their offense, though she has shot just 25% from the field in these two games (8/31). Most of Mitchell’s actions in the Mystics game came as a PnR Ball Handler or isolation looks, resulting in a lot of jump shots (9). While Mitchell is shifty in isolation, her greatest strength is her speed; Mitchell ended the CON game with 5 straight looks from off ball movement, so hoping that continues.

On the year when Clark is off the floor, it is Natasha Howard that leads the team in usage rate at 29.9%. She paces for 15 shots per 30 minutes, yet her minutes are unreliable given her turnovers and general lack of motivation. Played just 17 minutes against WSH, and The Fever don’t need a ton of size in this matchup.

While Alyssa Thomas remains out, Collier returns for Minnesota. The Lynx pulled out a narrow 3 Point victory over PHX without the two stars just a couple games ago. PHX has been the 2nd best 3PT-limiting defense, which left Alanna Smith and Courtney Williams to dominate the team’s FGA (33 of 69 total).

Despite Collier being in, Alanna is really undervalued at 8.5 Pts on sportsbooks. Last game against Golden State she shot just 1 time for Minnesota (#ally), yet today will be another rare instance where MIN will have better frontcourt size than their opponent. PHX has surrendered the 3rd most RPG in the league, including 38 to LAS in their most recent game.

Prior to AT’s injury, the rebounders that have thrived vs PHX were dominated by PFs:
– Azura 17 Reb
– Reese 15 Reb
– Iriafen 13 Reb
– Ogwumike 8 Reb
Post AT OUT:
– Shepard 10 Reb
– Hamby 10 Reb

Shifts now that they inserted a lower usage big and Satou Sabally is logging more on ball screens. Collier should defend Sabally.

The Wings will be without Bueckers again as she remains in concussion protocol. Bueckers has opened her WNBA career masterfully, as she joins Natasha Cloud as the only two players to be Top 10 in both Assists and AST/TOV ratio. Ty Harris also remains out for Dallas, leaving the team without a bonafide point guard. Dallas Wings w/ Ty Harris on the court:
Net Rating +4.85 | ORTG 101.40 | DRTG 96.55
Dallas Wings w/ Ty Harris off the court
Net Rating -23.65 | ORTG 92.74 | DRTG 116.38

However, Coach Koclanes turned to DiJonai Carrington to take on the facilitation load. Carrington notched 6 assists to Ogunbowale’s 2. Koclanes noted, “First game without Paige so we don’t have a true point guard, had a lot of different people bring the ball up… I mean DiJonai is initiating offense.”

Both Carrington and Ogunbowale notched 0 assists when they first met Seattle for their 2nd game of the season. This is even more shocking given that SEA loved throwing high traps on Bueckers last game, forcing the ball out of her hands, yet she still produced 8 assists. Expect this pressure to extend to Arike today.

Nneka with 18 rebounds in the last meeting, which is the highest regulation mark she has tallied since her rookie season in 2012. While a part of this success was from Magbegor dealing with foul issues in the opening half, she likely benefited the most from Myisha Hines-Allen being in foul trouble as well. Given MHA is so utilized in high action DHO, it typically makes her defenders see a slight dip in rebounding production. Regardless, DAL’s offense has struggled enough to surrender the 2nd most OPP RPG on the season. Bigs vs DAL (>25min):
– Shepard 8
– Ezi 8 / Nneka 18,
– Collier 8
– Griner 8 / Jones 15
– Cardoso 8 / Reese 9