Category: Betting

Welcome to “NFL Blitz,” where we give you in-depth analysis on every game, every week! We’re not here to pick sides – we’re here to explore the “why” behind each matchup. Our goal is to arm you with the knowledge to make your own informed choices:

• Why each team could cover the spread – uncover key factors that favor both sides.
• Why the game could go over or under – we dive into the stats, matchups, and situations that point to both outcomes.

We give you the “what ifs” so you understand the paths each game could take. No hot takes or hype, just sharp analysis to help you see both sides and make educated decisions. Whether you’re betting, setting up fantasy lineups, or just following the action, this weekly article is the ultimate guide to the NFL week ahead.

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Carolina Panthers vs. New York Giants (Germany Game)

Why Carolina will cover:

• If Andy Dalton starts, he can exploit the Giants’ weaknesses at cornerback, connecting with receivers like Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker, especially given the solid pass protection.
• Chuba Hubbard faces an incredibly favorable matchup against a porous Giants run defense that has struggled to stop opposing backs all season.

Why New York will cover:

• The Giants are better positioned to exploit Carolina’s historically poor defense, which ranks dead last in pressure rate and struggles against both the run and pass.
• Malik Nabers and Tyrone Tracy are poised for big games against a Panthers defense that can’t cover outside receivers or stop explosive runs.

Why game will go over:

• Both defenses are weak, with the Panthers unable to generate any pressure on Daniel Jones, allowing him to connect deep with Nabers.
• The Panthers, especially with Dalton, can take advantage of the Giants’ vulnerable secondary and poor run defense, leading to high-scoring drives on both sides.

Why game will go under:

• If Bryce Young starts, the Panthers’ offense could sputter, struggling to consistently move the chains against a slightly better Giants defense.
• Both teams may lean heavily on their run games, draining the clock and limiting overall scoring opportunities.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills

Why Indianapolis will cover:

• Jonathan Taylor has a favorable matchup against a Bills defense that struggles to stop the run and allows significant yardage to pass-catching backs, creating opportunities for Taylor to excel both on the ground and through the air.
• The Colts have kept every game close this season, losing by no more than eight points, showcasing their resilience in tight matchups.

Why Buffalo will cover:

• Josh Allen has been playing mistake-free football, with only two interceptions all season, and the potential return of Amari Cooper could open up the Bills’ passing attack against a shaky Colts secondary.
• Dalton Kincaid could exploit Indianapolis’ weakness against tight ends, providing a consistent and reliable target for Allen in the middle of the field.

Why game will go over:

• Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities: Buffalo struggles against running backs and slot receivers, while Indianapolis has a shaky secondary that could be exposed if Cooper plays.
• Josh Downs and Taylor’s receiving abilities can generate explosive plays, while Allen’s methodical approach could produce long, scoring drives.

Why game will go under:

• Buffalo may come out flat after an emotional divisional win over Miami, potentially slowing their offensive output, especially with key receivers like Cooper possibly limited.
• If the Colts focus on controlling the clock with a run-heavy approach using Taylor, it could lead to long, time-consuming drives, reducing the overall scoring opportunities.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Minnesota Vikings

Why Jacksonville will cover:

• Trevor Lawrence excels against the blitz, which is crucial since the Vikings blitz at the highest rate in the NFL. This gives Jacksonville an advantage if Lawrence plays.
• The Jaguars have been competitive recently, covering the spread in their last three games, and could exploit Minnesota’s struggles against No. 1 receivers and tight ends.

Why Minnesota will cover:

• With Trevor Lawrence potentially sidelined due to a shoulder injury, Jacksonville’s backup quarterback could struggle against Brian Flores’ aggressive blitz schemes.
• Cam Robinson’s presence on the Vikings’ offensive line helps solidify protection for Sam Darnold, which can exploit Jacksonville’s weakened defensive line missing key players like Scherff and Cleveland.

Why game will go over:

• Both teams have potent offensive weapons, with the Vikings featuring Justin Jefferson and the Jaguars likely leaning on Lawrence’s quick passes against the blitz.
• The Jaguars are vulnerable to receiving backs, so Aaron Jones could have success both on the ground and through the air, boosting the scoring potential.

Why game will go under:

• If Trevor Lawrence is out, Jacksonville’s offense could struggle with a backup quarterback facing a relentless Minnesota pass rush, limiting scoring opportunities.
• Minnesota may lean on a run-heavy game plan with Aaron Jones to control the clock, especially if Jacksonville’s offensive line is compromised, slowing the game pace.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Washington Redskins

Why Pittsburgh will cover:

• Russell Wilson will look to exploit the absence of Marshon Lattimore, who was expected to bolster the Redskins’ secondary but won’t be available.
• Mike Tomlin’s track record as an underdog is stellar, with Pittsburgh often keeping games close even when outmatched.

Why Washington will cover:

• The acquisition of Marshon Lattimore, even if he’s out, adds confidence to Washington’s secondary, allowing them to focus more on pressuring Wilson behind Pittsburgh’s shaky O-line.
• Jayden Daniels’ mobility and ability to extend plays will challenge Pittsburgh’s pass rush, especially if he’s healthier this week.

Why game will go over:

• Washington’s offense, led by Daniels and McLaurin, has explosive play potential, especially against a Pittsburgh defense that can give up big passing plays under pressure.
• Pittsburgh’s new addition, Mike Williams, could open up their passing game, creating opportunities for chunk yardage and quick scores.

Why game will go under:

• Both defenses excel at generating pressure, which could disrupt offensive rhythm and lead to stalled drives.
• The absence of Brian Robinson Jr. for Washington and the Redskins’ focus on containing Najee Harris may result in fewer successful offensive plays, slowing the game pace.

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons

Why New Orleans will cover:

• Firing Dennis Allen may ignite the team, as players often perform better following a coaching change to prove themselves.
• Despite missing Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, Derek Carr can exploit the Falcons’ weak secondary, especially with Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill contributing in the run and short passing game.

Why Atlanta will cover:

• The Saints are missing their top three cornerbacks, making it easier for Kirk Cousins to connect with Drake London and Bijan Robinson, who can exploit a weak New Orleans run defense.
• The Saints’ depleted offensive line could struggle to protect Derek Carr, giving Atlanta’s defense more chances to pressure and disrupt drives.

Why game will go over:

• Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities: the Saints’ depleted secondary and the Falcons’ poor pass rush, which could lead to explosive plays on both sides.
• Alvin Kamara and Bijan Robinson are both capable of breaking big gains, either through rushing or catching passes, contributing to a higher score.

Why game will go under:

• The Saints’ missing top receivers and offensive linemen could lead to stalled drives, especially if Carr struggles to connect with backup options.
• Atlanta may focus on controlling the clock with a heavy dose of Bijan Robinson’s ground game, which could slow the pace and reduce overall scoring opportunities.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos

Why Kansas City will cover:

• Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce should thrive against a Broncos defense that struggles to cover tight ends, especially with DeAndre Hopkins emerging as a legitimate threat.
• Denver’s rookie quarterback Bo Nix faces a tough task against Kansas City’s No. 1-ranked rush defense, forcing him to rely on his limited receiving options, which plays into the Chiefs’ defensive strengths.

Why Denver will cover:

• The Chiefs typically struggle to cover large spreads during the regular season, especially if they’re not fully motivated.
• If Denver can avoid turnovers and control the clock with efficient drives, they may keep it close enough to cover, especially in a divisional rivalry game.

Why game will go over:

• The Chiefs’ passing attack, bolstered by Hopkins and Kelce, could exploit the Broncos’ inconsistent pass defense, leading to big plays and quick scores.
• Bo Nix, despite being a rookie, has shown flashes of potential and might be able to generate enough points in catch-up mode, pushing the total over.

Why game will go under:

• Kansas City’s elite run defense will likely force Denver into one-dimensional, pass-heavy drives, potentially leading to stalled possessions and lower overall scoring.
• The Chiefs may opt for a more conservative, clock-draining approach if they establish a comfortable lead, especially with a matchup they’re expected to win comfortably.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers

Why San Francisco will cover:

• The return of Christian McCaffrey, even in a limited capacity, will bolster the 49ers’ red zone offense, an area they’ve struggled in recently.
• The 49ers’ pass rush will overwhelm a banged-up Buccaneers offensive line, forcing Baker Mayfield into turnovers against San Francisco’s top-tier secondary.

Why Tampa Bay will cover:

• The Buccaneers showed resilience against the Chiefs, nearly pulling off the upset, which could carry momentum into this game if Mayfield plays.
• If San Francisco’s key players like Nick Bosa and Deebo Samuel are limited or out, Tampa Bay might have a window to keep it close.

Why game will go over:

• San Francisco’s potent offense, especially with Kittle exploiting the Buccaneers’ weak coverage in the middle, could lead to explosive plays and quick scores.
• Tampa Bay may be forced into a pass-heavy game plan if they fall behind early, increasing the chances of big plays and turnovers leading to more points.

Why game will go under:

• If Mayfield is limited or out, Tampa Bay’s offense could struggle to move the chains, especially against San Francisco’s stout defense.
• The 49ers may lean on a ground-heavy attack if McCaffrey is back, controlling the clock and limiting overall possessions, which would keep the score lower.

New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears

Why Chicago will cover:

• Caleb Williams will face much less pressure from New England’s sixth-worst pressure rate, allowing him to find open receivers like D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze.
• The Bears’ strong rushing attack, led by D’Andre Swift, should exploit New England’s porous run defense, keeping Chicago in control of the game.

Why New England will cover:

• Rhamondre Stevenson has a favorable matchup against a Bears defense that was shredded by James Conner last week, allowing New England to control the ground game.
• If Chicago’s offensive line injuries persist, the Patriots’ defense could disrupt Williams, forcing turnovers and keeping the game close.

Why game will go over:

• Both offenses match up well against the opposing defenses’ weaknesses, with Williams taking advantage of the Patriots’ poor pass rush and Stevenson finding running lanes against the Bears.
• Chicago’s explosive playmakers, paired with New England’s recent defensive struggles, could lead to quick scores on both sides.

Why game will go under:

• If the Bears focus on a ground-heavy game plan with D’Andre Swift, they may drain the clock and limit possessions, keeping the score lower.
• The Patriots’ offense, which relies heavily on the run, may struggle to convert on long drives, especially if Maye faces pressure from a rejuvenated Bears’ pass rush.

Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Why the Chargers will cover:

• Justin Herbert is set to exploit Tennessee’s injury-riddled secondary, especially with Quentin Johnston stepping up as a key receiver. The Titans are down their top cornerbacks, which opens the door for Herbert to dominate through the air.
• The Chargers’ defense excels against weak quarterbacks. They’ve blown out subpar QBs like Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, and Spencer Rattler this season, winning by double-digit margins each time.

Why the Titans will cover:

• Tony Pollard could find success in the passing game against the Chargers, who’ve struggled at times against receiving backs. If the Titans utilize Pollard effectively in the air, it could keep them competitive.
• The Chargers have struggled in their home stadium in recent years, and if Joey Bosa or Khalil Mack misses this game, Tennessee may have an easier time protecting their quarterback.

Why the game will go over:

• Both teams possess explosive offensive weapons, and Justin Herbert could easily carve up Tennessee’s weakened secondary, leading to quick scores.
• If the Titans fall behind early, they’ll have to rely on the passing game, which could lead to a high-scoring shootout, especially if they play catch-up late in the game.

Why the game will go under:

• Both defenses have been stout against the run, which could lead to stalled drives and limited big plays. The Titans’ only offensive strength lies in the run game, and they may struggle against the Chargers’ strong run defense.
• The Titans’ offense, led by either a struggling Will Levis or a backup Mason Rudolph, is unlikely to generate consistent scoring against the Chargers’ top-tier defense, especially with pressure from Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Why the Eagles will cover:

• The Cowboys will be without Dak Prescott, forcing Cooper Rush into the starting role. Rush will be under heavy pressure from Philadelphia’s formidable defensive front, making it tough for him to sustain drives.
• Philadelphia’s run defense is among the league’s best, which means Dallas’ backup running back Rico Dowdle won’t have much room to operate, allowing the Eagles to control the game flow.

Why the Cowboys will cover:

• With Micah Parsons returning, the Cowboys’ pass rush can disrupt Jalen Hurts, potentially forcing turnovers or creating short-field opportunities for their offense.
• CeeDee Lamb is expected to play, giving Cooper Rush at least one reliable target to move the chains, especially if Philadelphia focuses too heavily on stopping the run.

Why the game will go over:

• Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense could exploit Dallas’ banged-up secondary, especially if Trevon Diggs is out, leading to explosive plays from A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
• The Cowboys, despite their injuries, may find success in garbage time if the Eagles relax with a sizable lead, allowing Cooper Rush to connect on quick scores late in the game.

Why the game will go under:

• The Cowboys’ offense, led by backup quarterback Cooper Rush, is likely to struggle to put up points against an Eagles defense ranked fourth in defensive EPA.
• Both teams may lean heavily on their running backs (Saquon Barkley for Philadelphia and Rico Dowdle for Dallas) to control the clock, resulting in longer, time-consuming drives and fewer scoring opportunities.

New York Jets vs. Arizona Cardinals

Why the Jets will cover:

• Aaron Rodgers is starting to develop better chemistry with his receivers, which could lead to more effective offensive drives, especially if the Cardinals’ pass rush doesn’t disrupt him too much.
• Breece Hall can exploit Arizona’s weaknesses in defending pass-catching running backs, potentially leading to big plays and keeping the Jets’ offense moving.

Why the Cardinals will cover:

• The Jets’ defense struggles against the run, and James Conner is poised for a strong performance against this unit. Arizona can control the game tempo with a solid ground attack.
• Kyler Murray can take advantage of New York’s difficulties in covering tight ends, allowing Trey McBride to make key catches and extend drives.

Why the game will go over:

• Both teams could find success in exploiting each other’s defensive weaknesses: the Cardinals on the ground with James Conner, and the Jets with Aaron Rodgers targeting Breece Hall in the passing game.
• If both offenses are able to sustain drives, especially with efficient running and quick passes, we could see more scoring opportunities than expected.

Why the game will go under:

• The Jets’ pass protection issues, combined with Arizona’s improved pass rush, may limit Rodgers’ effectiveness, leading to stalled drives and fewer points on the board.
• The Cardinals may rely heavily on their running game to control the clock, which could slow the pace and result in fewer possessions and scoring chances for both teams.

Houston Texans vs. Detroit Lions

Why the Texans will cover:

• C.J. Stroud regains a key weapon with Nico Collins’ expected return, which significantly boosts Houston’s passing attack against a Lions’ secondary that has struggled without Aidan Hutchinson.
• The Lions’ pass defense is vulnerable, especially against slot receivers and deep threats, which Stroud can exploit with Collins and Tank Dell, assuming they’re healthy.

Why the Lions will cover:

• Detroit’s potent rushing attack, led by Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, is set to dominate against Houston’s weak run defense that has been exploited in recent weeks.
• Jared Goff thrives indoors and has been highly efficient lately, benefiting from Amon-Ra St. Brown’s ability to exploit the Texans’ weakness against slot receivers.

Why the game will go over:

• Both offenses are capable of explosive plays, especially with Collins back for the Texans and the Lions leaning on their dynamic duo of Gibbs and Montgomery to break big runs.
• Houston’s defense struggles to contain the run, while Detroit’s injury-riddled secondary could give up significant yardage to Stroud and his receivers, leading to a high-scoring game.

Why the game will go under:

• The Lions could control the game’s pace with their ground attack, chewing up the clock and limiting the number of possessions for both teams.
• If Nico Collins is limited or absent, the Texans’ offense might struggle to sustain drives, reducing their scoring opportunities against a Lions’ defense that can focus on stopping the run.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Miami Dolphins

Why the Rams will cover:

• With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp both back and healthy, the Rams’ passing game will be difficult for Miami’s defense to handle, especially with Kyren Williams benefiting from lighter boxes.
• The Dolphins’ run defense has been weak, which sets up well for Williams to have a big game, opening up favorable play-action opportunities for Matthew Stafford.

Why the Dolphins will cover:

• Tua Tagovailoa’s quick release and the ability to hit his short-range playmakers like De’Von Achane could counter the Rams’ pass rush, allowing Miami to sustain drives.
• The Rams’ linebacking corps struggles in coverage, which Miami can exploit with short passes to players like Achane, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle in space.

Why the game will go over:

• Both offenses have explosive playmakers capable of turning short passes into long gains, with the Rams leveraging Kupp and Nacua and the Dolphins featuring Hill and Waddle.
• The Dolphins’ defensive struggles against the run and the Rams’ issues covering the middle of the field could lead to plenty of scoring opportunities for both sides.

Why the game will go under:

• If the Rams control the game with a run-heavy approach through Kyren Williams, they could dominate time of possession, limiting Miami’s offensive opportunities.
• Tua Tagovailoa may struggle under heavy pressure from the Rams’ pass rush, potentially leading to stalled drives and fewer explosive plays.

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Welcome to the NFL Week 10 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Last week, our picks went 1-1, which brings our season record on released picks to 13-13-2.

 
NFL Week 10 Newsletter Table of Contents:

• I. Team Trends
• II. Totals Analysis
• III. Double-Digit Favorites
• IV. Bye Weeks Stats and Trends
• V. Fading home teams off OT win
• VI. Baller System: Road favorites off a loss as a home favorite
• VII. Baller System: Fade home favorites off a loss
• Write-ups and picks

Click here for NFL Week 10 Matchup Pages

I. NFL Week 10 Newsletter – Team Trends

These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:

• Bears: covered 6 straight home games.
• Bears: held opponents Team Total 1-7 O/U this season.
• Chargers: 1-12 O/U in L13 games as favorites
• Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 0-8 O/U this season.
• Titans: 2-9 ATS in L11 road games.
• Commanders: 5-0 ATS as favorites and 4-0 ATS at home this season.
• Dolphins: 0-8 1H Team Total O/U this season.
• Dolphins: 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS in L9 games as underdogs (they covered their previous game).
• Panthers: 8-0-1 1H O/U this season.
• Texans: 8-1 1H ATS this season.
• Lions: 7-1 1H and full game ATS this season.
• Lions: 16-3 ATS in L19 road games.
• Ravens: 9-1 O/U this season (including TNF)
• Cowboys: 2-10 ATS in L12 games as underdogs.
  

Not active this week:

• Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
• Browns: 0-7 Team Total O/U this season.
• Chargers: 1-7-1 ATS in L9 games as underdogs.
• Patriots: 2-11-2 ATS in L15 home games.
  
  

II. NFL Week 10 Newsletter – Totals Analysis

After Week 8’s scoring bonanza, Week 9 saw a slowdown in NFL scoring patterns, with games averaging 44.2 points—just a touch below the season average of 45.2. Totals favored the under this week, going 8-7, and the median points per game settled at 45.5, indicating a slight slowdown after a more high-scoring trend seen earlier in the season. Cumulatively, the season’s totals record now sits at 72-65-2 to the over, reflecting a balanced but gradually higher-scoring trend overall.

This recent uptick in scoring across the league is influencing market expectations, pushing game totals higher as sportsbooks adjust to the rising points. Early-season averages hovered around 44 points, but recent weeks have steadily aligned closer to the season’s average of 45.2. As we move deeper into the season, this inflation in projected totals suggests confidence in continued offense, though teams and defenses may still surprise as weather and playoff implications become factors.

Betting strategies around totals may shift with the market, as sharp bettors look for value in identifying potential under spots amid rising over expectations. Later in the season, with playoffs looming and rematches between divisional opponents, perhaps this is a reason to target some unders.

III. Double Digit Favorites

When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.2% clip, going 146-114-10 ATS.

Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.

Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 44-29-4 ATS (60.3%) since 2015.
Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.

This season, double-digit favorites have continued the trend, covering 4 out of 5 times, proving that even as betting markets adjust, the opportunity remains for these high-spread games. While no such line is active this week, this trend is worth keeping in mind for when those big numbers pop up again.

Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.

There are no active games this week, but here is a potential one with Lions as heavy favorites against the Jaguars next week, particularly if Trevor Lawrence remains out.

IV. Bye Weeks Stats and Trends

Favorites going into a bye week did well ATS. They are 31-9 ATS since the beginning of the 2022 season. This has gone 6-1 ATS this season.  These teams play with confidence as they are headed in a much-needed break. This is active on the Giants in Week 10.

V. Fading home teams off an OT win

One of the most reliable betting systems over the past decade has been fading home teams coming off an overtime win. Since 2011, betting against home teams in this situation has proven profitable with an impressive 52-31-4 record (62.7% ATS). The reasoning behind this trend is straightforward: teams coming off an OT victory often enter the next week fatigued, both physically and mentally, especially if they’re at home, where home-field familiarity might not offset the premium you pay.

This trend is especially relevant in Week 10, where the Broncos (vs. Chiefs) and Dolphins (vs. Rams) are active to back.

Another profitable angle over recent years has been fading underdog teams that pulled off an OT win the previous week. Since 2016, this strategy has yielded a strong 42-16-1 ATS record (72.4% success rate). The logic is that underdogs are more likely to experience a performance dip the following week after an emotionally and physically draining OT win. In Week 10, this specific system applies to backing the Chargers, making them a potentially strong play against a fatigued opponent.

VI. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite

Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 50-21-4 ATS record. This system has gone 6-2 ATS this season. There are no active games this week, but one we always keep our eye on.

Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.

VII. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss

Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 158-106-3 ATS (59.8%).

By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.

This is active to fade the Ravens and Titans in Week 9.

NFL Week 10 Newsletter – Breakdowns

Tennessee Titans @ Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers’ defense has been dominant this season, ranking 1st in yards allowed per drive and 6th in Defensive DVOA. This unit has been remarkably efficient at shutting down opposing offenses.

Adding to the appeal of backing the Chargers is their opponent, the Titans, who have been struggling mightily on the road. The Titans are just 2-9 ATS over their last 11 road games. Additionally, they’re coming off a hard-fought overtime win against the Patriots. As mentioned above, fading underdog teams after an OT win has been a profitable strategy since 2016, with a 42-16-1 ATS record (72.4%). These combined angles make the Chargers a strong play this week.

The under presents additional value here, with several factors pointing in that direction. In the last 13 games where the Chargers have been favorites, the total has gone under in 12 of those matchups (1-12 O/U). One of our preferred “Under” Baller Systems is also active in this game, aligning with the Chargers’ defensive stats. Given the Chargers’ success at holding opponents down early and the Titans’ road struggles, this sets up for a low-scoring affair.

Pick: Chargers -7.5 (I love them in a teaser leg as well)
Chargers/Titans Under 38.5

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Washington Commanders

The Commanders have been one of the league’s pleasant surprises. However, they’re up against a tougher challenge this week with the Steelers, who are coming off a bye—a scenario where head coach Mike Tomlin excels. Under Tomlin, the Steelers have won six straight games off a bye and covered in five of those six, a trend that speaks to their preparedness and execution after a week’s rest. The Steelers have consistently performed well as an underdog, showing grit in high-stakes matchups.

Another factor at play is the Commanders’ outlook, as they’re set to face divisional rival Eagles on Thursday Night Football—a key matchup that could impact their focus and game plan. Offensively, the Commanders bring a strong run game, ranking 5th in the league in yards per rush. However, they’re up against a Steelers defense that ranks 4th in fewest rushing yards allowed, indicating a significant challenge on the ground.

Meanwhile, Jayden Daniels, who’s had a relatively easy slate recently, faces an upgrade in defensive talent, which will reveal just how effective this Commanders’ offense can be against a well-prepared, rested opponent. With these angles in play, we’re backing the Steelers at +3.

Pick: Steelers +3 (-115 or better)

Click here for NFL Matchup Pages

Welcome to the NFL Week 9 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Last week, our picks went 2-2, which brings our season record on released picks to 12-12-2.

 
NFL Week 9 Newsletter Table of Contents:

• I. Team Trends
• II. Totals Analysis
• III. Double-Digit Favorites
• IV. Bye Weeks Stats and Trends
• V. Baller System: Unders on Playoff Rematches
• VI. Baller System: Road favorites off a loss as a home favorite
• VII. Baller System: Fade home favorites off a loss
• Write-ups and picks

Click here for NFL Week 9 Matchup Pages

I. NFL Week 9 Newsletter – Team Trends

These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:

• Chargers: 1-11 O/U in L12 games as favorites
• Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 0-7 O/U this season.
• Dolphins: 0-7 1H Team Total O/U and 1-6 Team Total O/U this season.
• Dolphins: 0-8 ATS in L7 games as underdogs.
• Giants: 1-6 O/U this season.
• Panthers: 7-0-1 1H O/U this season.
• Panthers: 1-7 1H ATS and full game ATS this season.
• Texans: 6-1 1H ATS this season.
• Colts: 7-1 ATS this season
• Bears: held opponents Team Total 0-7 O/U this season.
• Browns: 0-7 Team Total O/U this season.
• Lions: 15-3 ATS in L18 road games.
• Ravens: 7-1 O/U this season.
• Cowboys: 2-9 ATS in L11 games as underdogs.
• Buccaneers: 7-1 1H O/U this season.
  

Not active this week:

• Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
• Bears: 7-1 ATS In L8 home games.
• Chargers: 1-7-1 ATS in L9 games as underdogs.
• Titans: 2-9 ATS in L11 road games.
• Patriots: 2-11-2 ATS in L15 home games.
  
  

II. NFL Week 9 Newsletter – Totals Analysis

Week 8 was a scoring bonanza in the NFL, with totals going 12-4 to the over and games averaging 48.6 points—well above the season’s average of 45.3. The median points scored also rose to 48.5, indicating that scoring wasn’t just skewed by a few high-flying games but was fairly widespread. With offensive fireworks lighting up the scoreboard, the season’s total record now stands at 65-57-2 to the over.

This recent surge has started to push market totals higher. After hovering around 44 points earlier in the season, totals have now jumped to an average of 45.5, reflecting the league’s trend toward higher-scoring outcomes. The increase signals that oddsmakers are adjusting to meet the season’s rising offensive production, likely influenced by a range of factors—from rule changes favoring offenses to injuries on the defensive side across multiple teams.

The week’s high-scoring matchups provide a window into what could be a continued shift in scoring trends, with dynamic offenses and fast-paced game scripts dictating many games. As the season progresses, bettors and fans alike may want to watch for further upward adjustments in totals as teams find their stride on the offensive end.

III. Double Digit Favorites

When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.2% clip, going 146-114-10 ATS.

Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.

Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 44-29-4 ATS (60.3%) since 2015.
Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.

This season, double-digit favorites have continued the trend, covering 4 out of 5 times, proving that even as betting markets adjust, the opportunity remains for these high-spread games. While no such line is active this week, this trend is worth keeping in mind for when those big numbers pop up again.

Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.

IV. Bye Weeks Stats and Trends

Favorites going into a bye week did well ATS. They are 31-9 ATS since the beginning of the 2022 season. This has gone 6-1 ATS this season..  These teams play with confidence as they are headed in a much-needed break. There are no active games this week, but potentially the Cardinals and Giants in Week 10.

I also shared last week: teams going into a bye week are 67-41-2 ATS against a divisional opponent since the 2015 season. This is active on the Seahawks and Packers this week.

V. Baller System: Unders on Playoff Rematches

Teams facing each other in their first regular season matchup after their previous matchup was in the playoffs have typically gone under. Those games have gone 49-26-3 (65.3%) to the under since 2018. They are 33-14-3 (69.6%) to the under when these matchups occur early in the season in Week 10 or before.

I think the logic makes sense – these teams are quite familiar with each other after game planning for them on grand stage of the NFL Playoffs. In addition, one team will be out for revenge (especially early in the season) and expect their game plan on defense to be stronger, which will lend to a lower scoring game.

This trend has gone 4-2 to the under so far this season. Raiders/Bengals game is active in Week 9, although I put little stock into this since their playoff matchup was back in 2021.

VI. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite

Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 50-21-4 ATS record. This system has gone 6-2 ATS this season. There are no active games this week, but one we always keep our eye on.

Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.

VII. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss

Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 158-106-3 ATS (59.8%).

By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.

This is active to fade the Ravens and Titans in Week 9.

NFL Week 9 Newsletter – Breakdowns

Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals

The Bears are looking to rebound after a heartbreaking loss on a Hail Mary, and they may be primed for a low-scoring showdown with the Cardinals. Chicago’s defense ranks among the top in the league, allowing just 17 points per game (4th fewest), and they’ve managed to keep every one of their seven opponents under their team total this season. Meanwhile, Arizona ranks 29th in plays per game, which could further limit scoring opportunities in this matchup.

Two of our top under systems are active here, and there’s strong reason to think this game will favor a slow pace. If the Bears lean on the ground game with Swift, they could dominate time of possession and wear down Arizona’s defense, shortening the game. Both teams also have run-heavy tendencies due to weaknesses in their opponents’ run defenses, which could lead to longer, clock-draining drives on both sides.

All signs point to a game script that keeps the score down, making the under a solid play in this matchup.

Pick: Cardinals/Bears Under 44.5

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens

It’s not the flashiest pick, but we’re fading the red-hot Ravens in a tough situational spot. After a two-game road stint, Baltimore returns home sandwiched between two divisional matchups, with a big Thursday night game against the Bengals looming. This setup has all the signs of a classic letdown spot.

The Ravens’ defense has been underwhelming this season, ranking 24th in yards per pass play allowed and just 18th in Defensive DVOA—far from the intimidating Ravens defenses of the past. Meanwhile, Denver’s defense is showing up strong, ranking 5th in Defensive DVOA and allowing the 3rd fewest points per game along with the fewest yards per play in the league.

Lamar Jackson has been banged up, missing practice time this week, while Bo Nix has shown some potential. Given these factors, we’re backing the Broncos at +9.5 in this spot.


Pick: Broncos +9.5

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