Category: Betting

Lynx Poised to Pounce in Rd 1, Game 1 of WNBA Playoffs

Posted on by Katagiri


Click here for the WNBA Matchup Page for this game


Date: Sunday, September 22, 2024
Matchup: Phoenix Mercury at Minnesota Lynx
Time: TBA


The Minnesota Lynx are set to open the first round of the WNBA playoffs against the Phoenix Mercury on September 22, 2024. At the time of writing (with one meaningless game left for each team) the Lynx are locked into the 2-seed with a 30-9 record (77%) and the Mercury are locked into the 7-seed with a 19-20 record (49%). The Lynx had a soft open as 6.5 point favorites, a line that quickly moved to 9 and now sits around 10 at most books, reflecting the early support for the Lynx. The total sits at 159.

The Lynx have been a dominant team all season long, outperforming their pre-season expectations (30 wins with a game to go vs. their pre-season win-total, which was set at 16.5). Many people have likened their style of play to that of the Celtics in the NBA – a team that spreads the floor with good shooting while locking down on the defensive end. Indeed, the Lynx were the most efficient team from beyond the arc this year in the WNBA while ranking second in 3pt% allowed to their opponents – many will refer to this as a “math” challenge for anyone going up against the Lynx. Their offensive rating is 103.8, good for 4th in the league, and the Lynx particularly excelled on the defensive side of the ball, stifling opponents with a league-best 95.1 defensive rating. The Lynx have also thrived at home where they boast a net-rating of +11.2 (vs. +6.9 on the road – still great!).

The Mercury come into the playoffs right around where their pre-season expectations were projected (19 wins with a game to go vs. their pre-season win-total, which was set at 18.5). While the Mercury have played well enough to coast into the 7th seed without any doubts down the stretch, they have been far from dominant this season. As their slightly sub-.500 record would suggest, they have struggled with consistency. They are bottom-half in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and while they play fine enough at home (-1 net-rating), they have had particular struggles on the road where their net-rating drops to -7.9.

This game sets up to be a clash between a team in the Lynx that plays hyper-efficiently on both sides of the ball, and a team that is almost the opposite, inefficient in both areas. The Mercury do have veteran leadership in Diana Taurasi (15.1 ppg) and Brittney Griner (18 ppg), and have benefitted from the addition of scorer Kahleah Copper (21.6 ppg) and guard Natasha Cloud (11.7 ppg, 7 apg). While the talent in their starting lineup was enough to get them to the playoffs, it’s going to be a tough challenge, now, against a young and hungry Lynx squad, lead by Napheesa Collier (20.4 ppg) and Kayla McBride (15 ppg) with a roster that is much more balanced overall.

Although we’re not getting the best of the number, the play is still to take the Lynx -10 as I make a fair number on this game closer to Lynx -13. You could consider a slightly smaller bet on this as backing double-digit favorites in the WNBA is not a profitable angle, but the discrepancy in talent is just too great and I’d be comfortable laying .5 units at the current price.

Red Sox vs. Rays: Expect fireworks in Tampa

Posted on by Giulio Lavini

Game: Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Date: September 17, 2024
Time: 6:50 PM ET

Red Sox: Nick Pivetta (R)
Rays: Shane Baz (R)


The Red Sox and Rays kick off their series tonight with a total set at 7.5, which opens up a promising betting opportunity.

Key Trends (since 2024 unless otherwise noted):

  • When two teams are coming off road losses and facing each other in the first game of a series with a total of 7.5 or less, the over has hit in 9 out of 10 games (9-1).
  • The Red Sox are 7-2 to the over in the first game of a series when playing as road favorites.
  • The Rays have a 7-4 record to the over at home in the first game of a series following a loss.
  • In divisional matchups, when the Rays are underdogs with a total of 7.5 or less, they are 5-0-1 to the over.
  • Divisional matchups between two teams coming off losses are 7-3 to the over when the total is set at 7.5.


These trends suggest a strong lean towards the over in tonight’s game, given the recent performance patterns of both teams in similar situations.


Pick: Over 7.5

Money Baller Betting Report | Monday, September 16 

Posted on by Austin Wang

Hello Ballers – welcome to the Money Baller Betting Report. Yesterday went pretty well – 2-1-1 in MLB, 2-1 in WNBA, and another 1-1-1 in our NFL Week 2 Newsletter.


Money Baller Betting Report – MLB Betting Trends:


Check out our MLB Matchup Pages

  • Twins: 18-9 F5 O/U when Pablo Lopez starts.
  • Twins: 25-14-3 F5 O/U vs. LHP.
  • Guardians: 6-0-1 F5 O/U as home underdogs vs. RHP.
    • TMB thoughts: Trends point to a F5 over 4 in tonight’s game.

  • Mets: 21-8 ML when Sean Manaea starts.
  • In L30 days, Mets: 15-5 ML vs. RHP.
  • In L30 days, Nationals: 2-7 ML vs. LHP.
    • TMB thoughts: There are lots of nice stats favoring the Mets – we are considering a -1.5 RL at +115.

  • 2 Baller Systems active on Phillies: (1) First game of a road, non-divisional series, on at least a two game winning streak, (2) Fade home dog off long road trip.
    • TMB thoughts: At close to a pick em, we think the Phillies ML -110 has value.

We didn’t take any action on these, but here were some other interesting trends we noted:

  • Dodgers: 15-3 ML as road favorites vs. LHP.

  • Cubs: 21-6 ML when Shota Imanaga starts (10-2 ML as home favorites).

  • In L30 days, Tigers: 4-17-1 F5 O/U vs. RHP.

  • Pirates: 14-3-3 F5 ML when Paul Skenes starts.
  • Cardinals: 19-6 +1.5 RL as home underdogs.

Steelers vs. Broncos: Expect Low-Scoring matchup

Posted on by Giulio Lavini

The Money Baller team would like to introduce Giulio Lavini as a contributor to the team! Giulio has been engaging with us and providing awesome stats and insights and wanted to share that with the rest of you. Here’s a little bit about him:

My name is Giulio—a technical handicapper who leverages data, trends, and numbers to make informed betting decisions. I use SDQL to dive deep into analytics, but I also actively watch and follow the sports I bet on, including staying up-to-date with player and team news. By combining statistical insights with real-time information, I aim to stay ahead of the game.


Click here for the Steelers vs. Broncos Matchup Page


Game: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos
Date: September 15, 2024
Time: 4:25 PM ET



We have a notably low total for this game, and for good reason.


Trends (since 2018 unless noted):

• Low Totals Favor the Under: When the total is set at 36.5 or less, the under has hit in 30 out of 40 games (30-9-1 record).


• Home Underdogs in Specific Situations: The under is 22-6-1 when the home underdog is receiving 2.5 points or fewer, coming off a road loss, and the total is less than 43.


• Non-Divisional Games with Low Totals: In non-divisional games where the total is 36.5 or less and the home team is getting 2.5 points or fewer, the under has a 12-5 record.


• Steelers’ Recent Trends: Pittsburgh is 12-4 to the under as a road favorite (6-1-1 to the under after covering their previous game).


• Broncos as Home Underdogs: Denver is 14-8 to the under when playing as a home underdog. Given these strong defensive trends and the historical data supporting low-scoring outcomes in similar situations, the under appears to be the favorable play for this matchup.


• One Baller System active on the UNDER: For Baller Access members, you can see this active on the Steelers vs. Broncos Matchup Page.



Pick: Under 36.5

Money Baller Betting Report | Friday, September 13

Posted on by Austin Wang

Hello Ballers – welcome to the Money Baller Betting Report.

You’ll see the format is slightly different today. Instead of writing out MLB trends for every single game, I am only listing ones that I would typically list in the featured trends section, and will incorporate the WNBA. This will be more sustainable and lead to most consistent and quicker posting as we continue to scale our website. Let me know your feedback!

Yesterday’s ML parlay did not hit as both sides failed to win. The Bills came through in dominant fashion, whether you bet them straight up or included them in a teaser.


Money Baller Betting Report – MLB Betting Trends:


Check out our MLB Matchup Pages

  • 2 Baller System active on Cardinals: (1) First game of a road, non-divisional series, on at least a two game winning streak, (2) Back small road underdog with better record
  • Cardinals: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘2’ as an underdog
    • We think there is value on the Cardinals ML +115 (consensus).





  • Cubs: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘6’
  • Cubs: 6-1 ML in last 7 games vs. LHP.
    • We are on the Cubs ML -142 (FanDuel).


  • Phillies: 11-1-2 F5 ML and 11-3 ML as home favorites when Aaron Nola starts.
  • In L30 days, Phillies: 6-0 ML vs. LHP.
  • Marlins: 4-21 ML as road underdogs vs. LHP.
  • Besides fading the Marlins on this trend, Edward Cabrera has been brutal this season with a 4.88 ERA and 4.86 FIP.
    • We are targeting the Nationals ML -144 (FanDuel) at a 0.5u size.


  • Astros: Baller Matchup Rating of ‘6’
  • Astros: 7-0 when Yusei Kikuchi starts.
    • If you are looking for a parlay piece, we think the Astros should be considered.



Money Baller Betting Report – WNBA Betting Trends:


Check out our WNBA Matchup Pages

  • Mystics: 25-9-2 1H ATS this season
  • Dream: 3-14-1 1H ATS at home
  • THREE Baller systems active on the Mystics
    • Needless to say, we are going Mystics 1H +2, one of the best bets in the WNBA.


  • Wings opponents have gone 30-6-1 to over on their Team Total this season (17-2 to the TT over when Wings are at home).
  • Wings are on the second game of a back-to-back, where we see overs are prevalent. Teams on the 2nd game of a B2B are 48-32-3 O/U since 2018.
    • I tackled this game and split my bet two ways: Storm Team Total Over 90 and Storm/Wings Over 173.