Betting - The Money Baller

Welcome to the NFL Week 2 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll bring you valuable insights, including key trends and stats, an in-depth look at key numbers, and detailed write-ups on our picks.

NFL Week 2 Newsletter Table of Contents:

I. Team Trends
II. Early Season Totals
III. Early-season Thursday Lookahead Spots
IV. Week 2 Overreaction Angles
V. Baller System: Early Season Road Underdogs
VI. Baller System: Unders on Playoff Rematches
Write-ups and picks

Click here for NFL Week 2 Matchup Pages

I. NFL Week 2 Newsletter – Team Trends

These trends aren’t always actionable on their own, but they highlight notable tendencies worth keeping in mind as you evaluate Week 2 matchups:

Rams: Have covered the spread in 6 straight road games.
Falcons: Have gone 0–5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Giants: Have gone 0–5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Browns: Just 4–13–1 ATS on the road over the last two seasons.
Titans: Have gone 0–8 ATS in their last 8 home games.
49ers: Have gone 0–10 ATS following a win.
Lions: Have gone 10–0 ATS following a loss.
Ravens: Have gone 11–1 ATS following a loss.
Jaguars: Have hit the Over in 6 straight games following a win.

Use these as context points when shaping your card — they can help identify hidden edges or caution flags before you make a play.

II. NFL Week 2 Newsletter – Early Season Totals

Week 1 saw a shift in scoring trends, with games going 12-3 to the under and averaging 41.3 points per game (38.7 PPG if you exclude the Ravens/Bills game), well below market total of 45.4. This is a significant decrease from last season’s Week 1, which only averaged 45.8 PPG, and previous year’s season-long average scoring of 45.9 PPG.

Notes from this Week 1

The Bills-Ravens game was a big outlier: 41-40, a high‐scoring shootout which skewed averages upward somewhat. Excluding that, many games were well below typical totals.
In the Broncos-Titans opener, for example, nearly all scoring was via field goals until late: there were multiple missed or stalled drives; limited high impact offense.
The Giants failed to score a touchdown in their opener versus Washington; their run offense was stymied, and pass protection weak.
The FantasyPoints “Data Charter Notes” flagged that several offenses used fewer motions, fewer spread/pass under center wrinkles, fewer deep throws, more short/intermediate work. Fantasy Points

Putting it all together, the most likely combination is:

Offenses were rusty – less crisp in execution, worse at finishing drives, more penalties or miscommunications.
Play‐calling was more conservative: fewer deep shots, fewer aggressive schemes, more short/intermediate plays, fewer high variance plays.
Expectation overshoot: markets set totals high (based on last season or early projections) and didn’t fully discount early season friction.

If I had to pick one dominant cause, I’d point to conservatism + execution issues: teams playing “safe,” trying to avoid turnovers, making fewer mistakes, but also limiting upside.

III. NFL Week 2: Thursday – Look Ahead Spots

One of the more intriguing betting angles in the early NFL season revolves around fading home teams who are set to play their next game on a Thursday.

A new angle is active this week – fading home teams in Week 4 or earlier has produced a 45-26-6 ATS record, a success rate of 63.4%. This week, it is active as fade the Dolphins (play on the Patriots).

The looming Thursday night game forces them to prepare for two games within a tight timeframe, which can lead to lack of focus. This is especially challenging early in the season, when teams are still working out the kinks and shaking off the offseason rust. The physical and mental toll of anticipating a short turnaround can also disrupt a team’s rhythm, making them more vulnerable to an upset. Even the best teams can struggle with preparation and execution when faced with the prospect of playing two games in just a few days.

IV. Week 2 Overreaction Angles

In Week 2, there’s a strong historical trend favoring teams coming off a loss in Week 1 when facing a team that won outright as an underdog. Since the 2012 season, these bounce-back teams have gone 26-15-1 ATS (63.4%). This trend is active to play of the Falcons and Jets in Week 2, offering a potential edge for bettors (if you dare). It makes sense – teams off a disappointing loss often come in with added motivation, while their opponents may be riding high off an unexpected win, setting up a prime spot for a bounce-back performance.

V. Baller System: Early Season Road Underdogs

One of our “Baller Systems” variations favors early-season (Week 6 or earlier) road underdogs who last the previous week and their opponent lost the previous week. Since the 2016 season, this system has produced a stellar 65-24-1 record ATS.

Giants (@Cowboys)
Bears (@ Lions)
Patriots (@ Dolphins)
Browns (@Ravens)

The rationale behind this system is simple yet effective: road underdogs in the early part of the season are often undervalued. The market expects a bounce-back for the home team, pricing them at a premium that typically hasn’t worked out very well for them.

VI. Baller System: Unders on Playoff Rematches

Teams facing each other in their first regular season matchup after their previous matchup was in the playoffs have typically gone under. Those games have gone 50-32-3 (65.3%) to the under since 2018. They are 32-16-3 (66.7%) to the under when these matchups occur early in the season in Week 10 or before.

I think the logic makes sense – these teams are quite familiar with each other after game planning for them on grand stage of the NFL Playoffs. In addition, one team will be out for revenge (especially early in the season) and expect their game plan on defense to be stronger, which will lend to a lower scoring game.

This trend has gone 0-1 to the under so far this season. It is active on the Chiefs/Eagles in Week 2.

NFL Week 2 Newsletter – Breakdowns

We went an awful 0-4 on our picks last week – really poor week with the systems not materializing. No excuses – we trust the process and look to bounce back this week!

New England Patriots +2.5 @ Miami Dolphins

3 Baller Systems Active on the Patriots
- Fade home team whose next game is on Thursday
- Back early-season road underdogs whose opponent lost last game
- Back road underdogs between two winless teams

Week 1 was ROUGH for the Miami Dolphins. They managed only 211 total yards vs. Colts, were shut out in the first half, and had just 15 plays in the opening half. Tua Tagovailoa looked in poor form, and there were a myriad of morale issues surfaced after the meltdown – Tyreek Hill clearly wants out.

Meanwhile, the Patriots, despite losing, showed flashes. Their new pass rush (Harold Landry with 2.5 sacks) and scheme pressure gave the Raiders some trouble in key spots. The run defense graded well; they limited rushing yards and kept second-half drives in check.

3 Baller Systems are active on the Patriots this week. One is a situational spot for Miami, who is looking ahead to a Thursday night matchup against the Buffalo Bills. With the systems aligning and Miami looking vulnerable, this feels like a strong fade spot.

✅ Play: Patriots +2.5

New York Giants +4.5 @ Dallas Cowboys

3 Baller Systems active on the Giants:

Road team off a loss of more than a TD
Early-season road underdogs whose opponent lost the previous game
Road underdogs between two winless teams

Our pick on the Giants didn’t go well last week, but we see another strong opportunity to back them again. Dallas is the “name brand” at home. Meanwhile, the Giants fit three Baller Systems that have crushed historically. NFC East matchups are notoriously close. In the last 10 Giants–Cowboys meetings, seven have been one-score games.

The Giants were humbled in Week 1, falling to the Commanders 30–13. These teams off a blowout loss have historically been undervalued early in the season as the public quickly labels them as “bad.” Despite the final score, the Giants allowed just 4.9 yards per play in Week 1, right around league average, and forced Washington into six punts on 10 drives. The field position battle hurt them more than their actual defense.

The Cowboys are coming off a 24–17 loss to the Browns in Week 1. Early in the season, perception swings wildly off small samples, creating value on these road dogs. Dak was pressured on 40% of dropbacks in Week 1, and Dallas converted just 4 of 13 third downs.

Both squads enter 0–1, which neutralizes any “momentum” edge. Historically, when neither team has shown form yet, grabbing the points has proven profitable.

✅ Play: Giants +4.5

Click here for NFL Matchup Pages

NFL Week 1 Betting Guide: Expert Systems, Trends, and Top Plays

Posted on September 1, 2025September 2, 2025 by Austin Wang

Welcome to the NFL Week 1 Newsletter! Week 1 is less than a week away! The excitement of Sundays spent glued to the Red Zone Channel, anxiously watching your bets unfold, is almost here.

Welcome to weekly NFL newsletter at The Money Baller. Each week, we’ll bring you valuable insights, including key trends and stats, an in-depth look at key numbers, and detailed write-ups on our picks.

While Week 1 is available for everyone to preview, subsequent editions will be exclusive to Baller Access members. Dive in and get ready for a season full of action and analysis!

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NFL Week 1 Newletter Table of Contents:

I. Week 1 Underdogs: A unstoppable phenomenon
II. Super Bowl Teams: Trends for the winner and loser
III. Early-season Thursday Lookahead Spots
IV. Early-season underdogs
V. Key Numbers
Write-ups and picks

Click here for NFL Matchup Pages

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I. Week 1 Underdogs

Looking back at previous seasons, there’s a noticeable trend: underdogs often thrive in Week 1. Short underdogs, those with a line of +2.5 or fewer, have a strong track record, going 48-28-3 (63.2%) against the spread (ATS) dating back to 2002. As of this writing, seven teams fall into this category for the upcoming Week 1:

Falcons +2.5 vs. Buccaneers
Dolphins +1.5 @ Colts
Raiders +2.5 @ Patriots
Seahawks +2.5 vs. 49ers
Lions +2.5 @ Packers
Texans +2.5 @ Rams
Ravens +1 @ Bills
Bears +1.5 @ Vikings

Week 1 underdogs in divisional matchups have been even more successful, posting a 56-30-2 (65.1%) ATS record since the 2009 season. This season, there are eight divisional games where underdogs are active, including:

Cowboys +7.5 @ Eagles
Chargers +3 vs. Chiefs
Falcons +2.5 vs. Buccaneers
Browns +5.5 vs. Bengals
Giants +6 @ Commanders
Seahawks +2.5 vs. 49ers
Lions +2.5 @ Packers
Bears +1.5 @ Vikings

Home underdogs, in particular, are 24-7 ATS in this spot, and the Falcons, Browns, Seahawks, Bears are among those in play this season.

Underdogs have historically performed well on Monday Night Football in Week 1 with an impressive 27-13-1 ATS record dating back to 1996. This trend is in play for the Chicago Bears as they face off against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1.

Bears +1.5 vs. Vikings

The significance of this trend lies in the underdog’s ability to thrive under the prime-time spotlight. Monday Night Football is a stage where expectations and pressure are high, often leading to tighter, more competitive games than the betting line might suggest. For the Jets, this historical edge could be a key factor in their Week 1 matchup.

Backing some of these teams may not seem appealing at first glance, but my experience with NFL betting often involves embracing discomfort. The logic holds: teams are fresh off the offseason and eager to set the tone. Divisional games are typically more competitive than the market and public might expect, especially with limited games and high stakes in the playoff race.

Keep an eye on these underdogs in Week 1, they might just surprise you!

II. Super Bowl Teams

How do the previous season’s Super Bowl Teams typically fare in Week 1 of the following season?

Since the 2002 season, Super Bowl losers have struggled in their Week 1 matchups, going just 10-12 SU and an awful 6-16 against the spread. This trend underscores the so-called “Super Bowl hangover,” where the psychological and physical toll of coming so close to victory only to fall short lingers into the next season.

This year, the Kansas City Chiefs find themselves in this unenviable position. Favored by 3 points against the Los Angeles Chargers in Brazil, they face the challenge of bucking this trend. Despite their talent, history suggests a cautious approach when betting on the Chiefs in Week 1.

On the flip side, Super Bowl winners have generally maintained their momentum heading into the next season, posting a strong 17-5 SU and 14-7-1 ATS record in Week 1 since 2002. This trend highlights the confidence and continuity often enjoyed by teams coming off a championship run. The Super Bowl victory often serves as a springboard for a strong start to the following season.

This year, the Philadelphia Eagles, fresh off their Super Bowl triumph, are 7.5-point favorites at home against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1.

III. Thursday – Look Ahead Spots

One of the more intriguing betting angles in the early NFL season revolves around fading favorites who are set to play their next game on a Thursday. According to the KillerSports database, fading these favorites in Week 4 or earlier has produced a remarkable 39-16-1 ATS record, a success rate of 70.9%. This trend is in play in Week 1 as a play on:

New York Giants +6 (@ Commanders)
Lions +2.5 (@ Packers)

IV. Baller System: Early Season Road Underdogs

Earlier in this newsletter, we touched on the success of Week 1 underdogs, but we want to dive deeper into one of our standout offerings—our “Baller Systems.” For members with Baller Access, we provide exclusive insights through a database of 50-plus systems, each meticulously back-tested over the past five seasons for consistent profitability. On our matchup pages, you’ll find which of our profitable systems are in play for each game.

One of our “Baller Systems” favors early-season (Week 4 or earlier) road underdogs who are getting 3.5 points or fewer and won their previous head-to-head matchup. Since the 2016 season, this system has produced a stellar 51-23-2 record ATS.

This trend is active to play in two Week 1 games:

Lions (@ Packers)
Raiders (@ Patriots)

The rationale behind this system is simple yet effective: road underdogs in the early part of the season are often undervalued, especially when they’ve previously proven they can beat their upcoming opponent. The familiarity and confidence gained from a previous victory can give these teams a psychological edge, making them a smart play for savvy bettors.

V. Key Numbers

Refer to the tables above, which display the frequency of margins of victory and total scores over the past five seasons:

It’s no surprise that 3 remains the most common margin of victory in the NFL.
However, recent seasons have highlighted the growing importance of the number 6. Over the past five years, games have landed on 6 more often than 7 – a shift driven by the league-wide increase in 2-point conversion attempts. We’re also seeing more outcomes land on 5, with 20 games in 2024 finishing with that margin.
For bettors, this matters when considering whether to “buy the hook” around key numbers. While moving off or onto 3 (for example, shifting from +2.5 to +3, or -3.5 to -3) may seem appealing, sportsbooks typically charge a steep premium for that adjustment. These extra costs often range from 15–25 cents, meaning you’ll be laying -125 or even -135. Over the long run, that eats into profitability, forcing you to hit a higher win rate just to break even.
In 2024, the most common final score total was 43, followed by 51, 37, and 44. Unlike margins of victory, however, totals are far less concentrated. That dispersion reduces the value of buying half-points or incorporating totals into teasers. For that reason, I recommend avoiding those adjustments on totals altogether.

Our Breakdowns

Chicago Bears +1.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings

Baller Systems Active:

Back divisional home dogs when opponent’s next game is a division matchup

Situational Angles:

Week 1 underdogs
Divisional underdogs
Week 1 underdogs on Monday Night Football

The Vikings had a strong 2024 season, but there are signs of regression. Jordan Addison is sidelined, and rookie QB J.J. McCarthy makes his first career start after missing the preseason with injury. It’s a tough ask to get sharp immediately in a hostile divisional environment.

On the flip side, the Bears have renewed optimism with Caleb Williams under center and new HC Ben Johnson calling plays. Chicago’s rebuilt offensive line should give Williams time, and if that happens, the rookie’s playmaking ability can flip this matchup.

Systems, trends, and the situation all line up on Chicago here. With the Vikings’ offense in transition and the Bears looking like a live divisional dog, this is a buy spot.

✅ Play: Bears +1.5

New York Giants +6 @ Washington Commanders

Baller Systems Active:

Fade home team whose next game is on Thursday
Week: 1 Back road dog when next game is on the road

This isn’t the prettiest play on the board, but sometimes those are the ones that cash in the NFL. The Commanders enter with plenty of hype around Jayden Daniels, but regression is a real possibility in Year 2, especially as defenses get more tape on him. Washington also brings in new pieces like Deebo Samuel, but at this stage in his career, it’s questionable how much impact he can sustain across a full game.

The Commanders’ offensive line signed Laremy Tunsil, but he is prone to costly penalties and lapses. On the other side, the Giants quietly upgraded their defense this offseason and should match up well in the trenches.

With systems, trends, and situational angles all stacking on New York – plus holding the key number of +6 – this looks like a strong buy spot.

✅ Play: Giants +6

Detroit Lions +8.5, Atlanta Falcons +8.5. 6-point teaser

Our stats and trends above point toward both the Lions and the Falcons, but we’re hesitant to back them individually as Week 1 underdogs with heavy public support. Both lines opened shorter and have moved against the money, which is telling. Instead, we’ll take a 6-point teaser through the key numbers of 3 and 7, getting each team at +8.5.

Baller Systems Active:

3 systems on the Lions
2 systems on the Falcons

This approach protects us against tight divisional games while still aligning with the situational edges. Both teams should be live dogs in Week 1.

✅ Play: Lions +8.5 / Falcons +8.5 (Teaser)

Baltimore Ravens/Buffalo Bills Under 50.5

Early-season playoff rematches have historically leaned toward the under, with defensive intensity and team familiarity making scoring harder to come by. Both the Ravens and Bills fit that mold perfectly: two top-tier defenses, two offenses that lean on the run, and a physical, grind-it-out style of play. The Bills added Joey Bosa, a strong addition to their defense and filling a hole that Von Miller left.

The head-to-head history strongly favors the under as well: 9-2 to the Under in their last 11 regular-season matchups (4-0 to the Under in Buffalo)

With defensive intensity high and both teams more likely to play field-position football than a track meet, we see value in playing the under here.

✅ Play: Ravens/Bills Under 50.5

Click here for NFL Matchup Pages

WNBA: Money Baller Report – Sat, Aug 30

Posted on August 30, 2025August 30, 2025 by Austin Wang

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WNBA and MLB: Money Baller Report – Sat, Aug 16

Posted on August 16, 2025August 16, 2025 by Austin Wang

Published: Saturday, Aug 16 11:55 AM CT

If you’re not using our Cheat Sheets yet, now’s the time to change that.

It’s your all-in-one destination for actionable systems, hot trends, and key situational edges — all wrapped up in one clean, easy-to-digest page. Whether you’re deep-diving into every matchup or just need the sharpest angles fast, it’s built to elevate your game.

👉 MLB Cheat Sheet
👉 WNBA Cheat Sheet

New York Liberty @ Minnesota Lynx

Baller Systems active:
Play the Over on a home favorite who won their last matchup off a road game.

Trends:
Liberty: 4-1 O/U as a road underdog.

We expect fireworks here in what could very well be a preview of the WNBA Finals. The Lynx got the best of New York 83–71 in their most recent meeting, capitalizing on New York’s 20 turnovers and dominating on fast breaks. Our Baller Model projects a 57.1% chance of this game going Over the total, making this one of today’s strongest edges.

✅ Play: Liberty/Lynx Over 166.5

Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds

The Brewers, winner of 13 straight, tying a franchise record set in 1987, are rolling into Cincinnati with confidence. On Friday, they outscored the Reds 10–8 after overcoming a 7–run deficit, powered by Christian Yelich’s monster night (two HRs, five RBIs) and a bullpen that shut the Reds out for the final 23 batters.

This momentum is carrying forward as they go for their 14th consecutive win, backed by a Baller Matchup Rating of 6 and a Baller System active on teams coming off a win where they used a lot of pitchers.

This is a spot where momentum and systems align. Cincinnati is dangerous at home, but this is not the time to step in front of a moving train. At a cheap price, we’re riding Milwaukee to keep the streak alive.

✅ Play: Brewers ML -125

WNBA and MLB: Money Baller Report – Sat, Aug 9

Posted on August 9, 2025August 9, 2025 by Austin Wang

Published: Saturday, Aug 9, 2:45 PM CT

If you’re not using our Cheat Sheets yet, now’s the time to change that.

Chicago Sky @ Indiana Fever

Situational Edge: Double-digit, in-season revenge for the Sky.

Baller Systems active on Chicago:
• Back road dog vs. opponent who was a dog in their previous game
• Fade team off a 2-game losing streak when their last game was at home

Chicago’s in a bounce-back spot here — 0-3 in their season series, motivated by earlier blowout loss, and supported by two active systems. With both Angel Reese and Caitlyn Clark out, the allure of this rivalry has simmered down, and we expect the Fever may not be as focused after dominating this season long matchup. Hoping to score their first head-to-head victory this season, we like the Sky to keep it close and cover the spread.

✅ Play: Sky +10.5

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals, slight underdogs in today’s matchup, have a Baller Matchup Rating of ‘8’. This is the biggest advantage of the card today. In addition, they are 13-3 ML as home underdogs vs. right-handed pitchers. See below for a comparison of the two pitchers – Colin Rea’s FIP and SIERA indicate he has been the beneficiary of good luck, while Andre Palliente is due for some positive regression.

✅ Play: Cardinals ML -104

Brink Returns For An Action Packed Tuesday

Posted on July 29, 2025July 29, 2025 by Caleb Bets

Three games for Tuesday, which are:
GSV @ ATL | 6:30 CT
CHI @ WSH | 5:30 ET
LV @ LAS | 7:00 PT

Will start in DC, where we have good news for Chicago with Angel Reese probable to return. Atkins remains out. Last game vs Indiana, Rachel Banham dropped 26 Pts, which was just 3 points away from her career high.

The Mystics typical defensive strategy is to force defenses inside, which is really great for this Chicago offense that is dependent on their frontcourt of Reese/Cardoso. They have done so as a biproduct of high pressure on opposing guards, which has generated ultra low 3PA:
– Diggins 1 3PA | Gabby 2 3PA
– Plum 6 3PA | Allemand 1
– Plum 5 3PA | Allemand 3 | Rickea 2
– Diggins 1 3PA | Gabby 1
– Chelsea 2 3PA | Jackie 2
– Copper 3 3PA | Whitcomb 4 3PA

Inside, both of AT and Sabally did as expected, producing 27 and 15 points respectively. Washington continues to get beaten up inside at the expense of their high pressure. Ogwumike notched 18, Hamby notched 25 PPG, followed by Rickea at 22 PPG, Azura at 15 PPG and Magbegor with 13.5 PPG all in Washingtons last 5 games.

In their L10 games, The Mystics have given up 40.4 PITP per game – by far the most in the league. In games where CHI has been able to notch over 30 PITP, which includes a game vs WSH where they notched 50, here are some key metrics (in L15 games):
– 75+ Pts in 7/8 games, averaging 83.15 PPG and 85.8 in L5.
– Angel 18.1 PPG, with 14+ Pts in 6/7 games with 22+ min (only miss was a TD vs CON)
– Cardoso 10+ Pts in 5/6

Both of these two have had their success against Mystics, with Angel notching 17 & 22 Pts alongside Cardoso with 18 in her only game. Atkins produced 6 assists per game as she faced this pressure, with just 2.5 3PA. This should directly translate to Banham, while her 3PT success is also unlikely to a repeat of Indiana.

Cardoso is over 19.5 P+R in 7/8 games with >26 minutes this season, averaging 26.5 PR, with her only miss being 19. She is a flawless 5/5 in this sample when alongside Angel.

Last game, Chicago had just 8 active players, and have since released Marquesha Davis & Moriah Jefferson. It’s possible that in addition to Reese’ return, they can get up to 9 players with Van Lith.

Chicago’s offense has committed the most turnovers in the league on both the season (17.5) and in their L10 games (17.8). In the recent span, they are being blocked the most in the league (5.5) and stolen from the most as well (9.2). Hilarious, and they also generate the fewest OPP TOV at just 11 per game as a bonus.

Shakira Austin has been a stock machine, leading the team in both steals per game (1.3) and blocks (1.4) in Washington’s L10 games despite just 26 minutes. Sykes & Citron are right there with her in the steals department, both averaging 1.1 per game as they take on the top guard defenders.

With Edwards still out, Engstler has been getting solid bench frontcourt run – with a sprinkle of Dolson. Neither of these impact Austin, who was pacing for 30 minutes last game vs Mercury along with 15 in the 1H. She has notched 16+ Pts in 8/L9 games with 26+ minutes on the floor.

Chicago is giving up over 20.4 Pts off TOV (most) and 13.5 fastbreak Pts (most), which in turn leaves them surrendering a modestly-high amount of PITP. In halfcourt sets, they give up a ton of threes, the 11th most specifically in their L10 games. Good 3&D players that can thrive both through transition and from behind the arc have been killer; Here is the sample of players who average 1+ steal, >2 FBPTS & >3 3PA have notched these numbers vs CHI (25+ min) since July 1st:
– Courtney Williams 16.5 PPG (14.8 FGA, 4.5 3PA, 1.8 STK)
– Allisha Gray 14 Pts (10 FGA, 8 3PA, 1 STK, 26min)
– Skylar Diggins 21 Pts (14 FGA, 6 3PA, 2 STK)
– Azura Stevens 19 PPG (11 FGA, 6 3PA, 6 STK)
– Kelsey Mitchell 35 Pts (19 FGA, 10 3PA, 3 STK)

Sykes and Citron both qualify for this. Losing Atkins also means losing a POA defender for Chicago, further opening them up for guard play. Chicago has allowed the most FGA per 40min to guards in their L10 games.
—–

The Valkyries, who were playing their second game with Thornton and Billings, just lost by 31 points to Connecticut – which was not a result I ever expected to see. That was only The Sun’s third win of the entire season, and was the most points they have scored all season long – so can only imagine what Atlanta can do against this defense.

Burton: “We need to hold ourselves to a higher standard of basketball, 95 points is pretty insane”
Nakase: “It would have been nicer if we played at 7, think the product would have been better. I think the time should have been factored when we’re going west coast to east coast trip”

The Sun notched 36 PITP last game, making up just over a third of their total points. The Valkyries have allowed the fewest PITP in any season split you take, at just 28 per game in their L10 games. This is generally a good defensive trait to have when facing a massive Atlanta frontcourt in Brionna Jones & Brittney Griner. When these two met earlier this month, Griner and Jones combined for just 13 FGA.

In turn, GSV is giving up nearly 30 threes a game in the same span (29), so Howard and Gray got up 15 combined threes in this matchup. Typically the 3PA they surrender is not to opposing POA’s (Point-of-Attack), rather is from the player they choose to “sacrifice” in order to double inside action. This includes Yueru and Geiselsoder with 8 attempts of DAL’s 26 total. The game before SEA got up 27, with Nneka notching 7 & Wheeler with 8. Mercury told the same story, with Westbeld seeing 8 and Akani supporting at 6.

They allow by far the most Corner 3s (from both corners), yet the only person to average at least one Corner 3PA has been Maya Caldwell. Guards that can drive and kick have gotten a ton of potentials, with Canada leading the team at 17 potentials despite just 26 minutes and alongside Rhyne/Allisha. The doubling on Jones Post Ups left her second in this regard at 11, which translated to 5 assists. 4 of her assists went to threes.

Griner got up to 30 minutes last game against Minnesota while producing her season-high in PPG at 22, yet she has notched 12 or more Pts in just 3/17 games (0/7 at home) if she falls under the 28 minute mark – which is likely with such a tough matchup.

Atlanta is right there as a strong paint defense, allowing just 31.8 PITP per game, yet aren’t too bad of a 3PT defense as a consequence typically as they are fine with Griner/Jones staying home on post ups.
—–

The storyline for LA is the return of Cameron Brink, who is reportedly “likely” to have a minutes restriction today but cannot imagine a scenario where she wouldn’t. Regardless, LA frontcourt of Hamby/Stevens has been strong enough where Brink likely isn’t even garnering a starting spot this season. She posted 5 blocks a game against Las Vegas last season.

Plum has faced Aces twice this season at The Michelob Ultra Arena, which served as her home for 6 seasons prior. However, she hasn’t succeeded vs Aces yet this season, losing both games off of 17 Pts (19 FGA) and 13 Pts (7 FGA). The Sparks have now won 5 straight games, including a win over The Liberty in their most recent night.

Rickea Jackson notched 30 Pts in her only meeting (the most recent one) against Las Vegas, so Plum didn’t really need to shoot a whole lot and produced 9 assists herself. This was Jackson’s career high and fueled LA’s 8 point victory.

The Sparks used a ton of handoff action against Vegas, notably seen through Hamby’s 6.5 APG, yet with the addition of Allemand in the starting lineup this action has seen an overall decrease in possessions used. Defensively, LVA has not improved against this type of action, ranking 10th, while allowing the 3rd most FGA per 40 to Guards in their L10 games.

11 starters have notched 8+ rebounds against Las Vegas in July, with 2 of them being guards (Sabrina & Allisha Gray). In these 10 games, only Fagbenle failed to cover Steven’s lines amongst frontcourt starters who played >25 minutes. Azura Stevens notched a double-double in both meetings vs Las Vegas, while Hamby notched 9 per game as well.

Rickea is defending Chelsea Gray, which left her also in great competition for these rebounds. She averaged 5.5 rebounds per game herself last season, with 7 in the only game this season. LV allows the most OREB in the league while giving up the most to guards.

Last game vs The Wings, all three of The Aces’ stars notched their highest potential count of the year:
– A’ja 13, Chelsea 16 & Young 20

A part of this was the nature of the game, as DAL is 2nd in PACE in their L10 games, yet The Sparks are right there with ’em at 3rd. In the most recent game, this trio each had 12 potentials as well.

It is time for A’ja to get back at the helm against a soft LA defense that has still been getting beat up inside, allowing Top 3 PITP and B3 against Post Ups & Putbacks. Hard to find someone on Las Vegas who has not had good history, with the Big 3 averaging:
– Jackie 30 PPG (24 FGA)
– A’ja 24 PPG (15 FGA)
– Chelsea 21.5 PPG (12 FGA)