Category: Betting

Target this Rebound Prop w/ 2 players out (FREE Article)

Posted on by The Money Baller Team

Kyle Kuzma — Over 4.5 Rebounds

This number is a gift. On paper, Kuzma’s season average of 4.6 rebounds makes 4.5 look like a coin flip, but one key point is that Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Porter Jr. will not be suiting up today. Strip those games out and the picture changes dramatically.

In the 10 games this season where both Giannis and KPJ are out, Kuzma averages 6.7 rebounds per game while seeing his minutes jump from 26.5 to 30.8 – a bump that translates directly to extra possessions, extra opportunities on the glass, and an expanded role as Milwaukee’s primary frontcourt presence.

Layer in the matchup and this becomes even more compelling. Orlando allows the most rebounds to opposing Small Forwards in the league, giving up 5.4 per game to the position. That differential pushes our positional matchup projection to 7.4 rebounds tonight, nearly 3 full boards above the line. He’s gone over this line in 6 straight games without GIannis and KPJ.

The line hasn’t caught up to the injury news. Take the over Kuzma’s rebound props tonight.

MASSIVE Player Prop Assists angle in the NBA

Posted on by The Money Baller Team

Keyonte George (Utah Jazz) — Over 5.5 Assists

Using our new Player Props Projections tool, we see a massive edge on a player prop tonight.

Keyonte George’s season average is 6.3 assists. Milwaukee allows the 6th most assists to opposing point guards. Layer in the Bucks’ strong SOS against opposing point guards and you have a matchup that inflates assist opportunities further. George is projected at 6.9 assists by our positional matchup model.

But the real story is Isaiah Collier being out. When Collier has been sidelined this season, George is the primary playmaker, averaging 7.9 assists and 34.6 minutes across 8 games without him. That’s not a small sample quirk, that’s a clear role that shows up every time. And the results back it up: 7 out of those 8 games (87.5%) went over 5.5 assists.

Free – Gift Number Alert: Jakob Poeltl Over 7.5 Rebounds

Posted on by The Money Baller Team

Jakob Poeltl Rebounds Over 7.5 (-135) 

Jakob Poeltl is back and this number looks advantageous. Coming off a back issue that limited his mobility and minutes, the big man is finally healthy and expected to reclaim his starting spot tonight against Washington. With Collin Murray-Boyle listed as doubtful, Poeltl should see an expanded role and elevated minutes – and the matchup couldn’t set up any better.

Washington surrenders the 3rd most rebounds to opposing centers in the league, allowing 9.2 per game to the position – nearly 2 full boards above Poeltl’s season average of 7.3. We ran this through our *BRAND NEW* player props matchup tool over at TheMoneyBaller.com and the positional differential spits out a projection of 9.7 rebounds in this spot. A healthy Poeltl with extra minutes against one of the softest frontcourts in the league for opposing bigs is a dangerous combination.

Free – Lakers to extend the Suns ATS losing streak

Posted on by The Money Baller Team

Los Angeles Lakers -4.5 (-110)

Los Angeles Lakers (34-23) visit the Phoenix Suns (33-26). Using the stats, insights, and tools over at TheMoneyBaller.com, the play is Los Angeles Lakers -4.5.

The Lakers enter in a spot to bounce-back after dropping a heartbreaker at home to the Magic. They also have two Baller Systems supporting them: “Back late season medium road favorites” (15-9-1 this season, 62.5%) and “Back road favorite off loss as a home favorite” (17-13, 56.7%). On the other side, Phoenix is playing their 4th game in 6 nights — a punishing schedule that should show up in the fourth quarter.

Historical Matchups: The Suns have been profitable against the Lakers historically, but tonight should be different. The Lakers are completely healthy (their “Big 3” of Luka, Lebron, and Reaves are all in without restrictions) and the Suns come in severely lacking in health, missing both Devin Booker and Dillon Brooks. No model will get to this price, but the Suns are not who they have been.

Statistical Edges: The Lakers have advantages in Offensive Rating (116.98, 8th vs. 115.3, 15th), dominant Paint FG% (62.64, 1st), and are on opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to FT Rate (31.97, 1st vs. 22.09, 29th), and EFG% (56.79, 2nd vs. 53.3, 20th). Without 2/3 of their primary scorers in Booker and Brooks this gulf will only widen.

Trends to Note: The most compelling trend is the Suns at just 27.3% (3-8) ATS at home in the last 30 days — among the worst marks in the league. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 75% (6-2) ATS as a favorite over the same stretch. Full season, Lakers as an away favorite sit at a strong 10-5 ATS (66.7%), and they cover at 68.8% as a favorite in the 2.5-7 range — right where this line sits.

The Suns’ have lost the last 5 games ATS and I expect that to become 6 tonight. Take Lakers -4.5.