Category: Betting

The Liberty are struggling without their non-American starters in Jonquel Jones (ankle) and Leonie Fiebich (EuroBasket Tournament), posting a 109.4 DRTG in their last 5 games (11th on year). While a victory over Atlanta did come in these last 5 games, that was the only game where Jonquel was able to run over 10 minutes – they lost 3 of the other 4 games.

They are about to be home for 8 straight games once July begins.

This prior meeting just shy of two weeks ago featured Sabrina Ionescu’s best scoring performance of the season, going for 34 Pts off 12-20 shooting. Sabrina’s last two games vs ATL has recorded 30+ Pts each. 12 of these 20 shots were off Pick-and-Roll, Handoff, or Off Screen action; Atlanta ranks 11th or worse in OPP Pts scored from all three of those playtypes, including recently:
– McBride 18 Pts (11 FGA)
– Atkins 29 Pts (22 FGA)
– Arike 21 Pts (14 FGA)
– Citron 17 Pts (14 FGA)
– Mabrey 34 Pts (22 FGA)

The NYL offense when facing ATL is so dependent on Pick-and-Roll or Handoff scoring that Cloud notched just 5 assists off of 9 potentials – the lowest potential mark she has notched in the Fiebich-less games. In fact, Courtney Williams on Friday was the first player in the entire month of June to notch over 6 assists vs Atlanta.

The Dream offense remembered Griner on Friday, after Smesko directly addressed her lack of involvement in postgame:
“That’s on me. We got to find her a way to get more deep touches, she is so good around the rim. We have had games where we have been hitting the threes, so it was easy to forget about the post presence with Bri and BG. Got to figure out a way to get her more involved in the offense”

The first play of the following game was immediately drawn up for BG, who ended the game with 16 Points, the first time she notched over 10 points in the last eight games. However, she still ran only 24 minutes in regulation without closing the 4th Quarter.

NYL’s current defensive weakness is their perimeter defense, surrendering the most OPP 3PA this month at 29.3. In addition they are B3 in OPP RPG, OPP APG, and OPP 2nd Chance Pts. The best RA performers against NYL in their L5 games:
– Alyssa Thomas 23 RA per game (12 Reb, 11 Ast)
– Rhyne Howard 16 RA (7 Reb, 9 Ast)
– Gabby Williams 16 RA (6 Reb, 10 Ast)
– Burton 15 RA (5 Reb, 10 Ast)

Rhyne, Gabby, and AT saw a large majority of their rebounds as defenders of Breanna Stewart. However, Rhyne matched up with Stewart as the ATL duo was able to match with NYL’s double-big of Sabally/Jones. Likely Burke starts instead of Gardner for size. Granted, matchup has seemed to be irrelevant as 16 starters in just these five games have 5+ Reb against The Liberty. NYL is a poor OREB unit without their key pieces.

Chicago rematches Los Angeles just 5 games later, and also was The Sky’s only win at home in June; Back on the road here. This most recent meeting came right after HC Tyler Marsh’s important press note on Chicago’s perimeter defense, “Just running people off the line at this point. Teams make a lot of threes because they also shoot a lot of threes against us and so we have to adjust to that… knowing that teams are playing kind of outside in against us, so just higher level of aggression running people off the line.”

The Sparks shot 7-26 from deep in the head to head, but then The Valks shot 11-30, so unsure if they made any significant improvements.

The Sky will be without Cardoso for the foreseeable future as she participates in AmeriCup for Team Brasil, which will make their interior defense almost as poor as their perimeter. This is screaming for another good game from the LAS frontcourt in Hamby and Stevens. Hamby in particular is intriguing, as a majority of her game was directly defended by Cardoso, yet now gets to take on the veteran Elizabeth Williams. At 32 years of age, Williams and Reese individually allow the highest OPP PITP per 30min when they are on the court.

Hamby notched nearly 3/4s of her 14 FGA in the prior meeting with Williams on the court, even going right at her when Cardoso was being checked for a concussion here.

Plum notched 16 potentials in the prior meeting as LAS attacked from deep, and should be in for an easier day as the paint defense softens. Sims returns, yet this hasn’t affected Plum’s facilitation duties. Of the players to notch over 10 potentials vs CHI, only 66% of what Plum has averaged vs this team thus far, they produced:
– Dream: Canada 8, Rhyne 4
– Mercury: AT 8 & 15 Ast
– Liberty: Cloud 8, Sabrina 7
– Wings: Paige 8, Arike 7, DiJonai 6
– Fever: Clark 10, Boston 5, McDonald 3

Luckily for Chicago’s offense, The Sparks have had the 3rd worst DRTG in June and the worst in their last 5 games. In that 5 game stretch, they have surrendered nearly 40 PITP per game, while also ranking B3 in OPP 2nd Chance Pts, Fastbreak Pts and APG. This inside damage has logically been dealt by the inside players:
– Collier 32 Pts (16 FGA)
– Cardoso 27 Pts (15 FGA) / Angel 18 Pts (12 FGA)
– Ogwumike 26 Pts (16 FGA)

All in the L5 games. Atkins led this team in potentials vs LA (13), and in the first game without Cardoso (20!).

Kahleah Copper almost fully back so this Mercury Trio is in full swing, which would make them even deadlier than they already have been. With Copper, Phoenix is 4-0, coming off a dominant 15 point victory against The Liberty. This win was logical, as NYL’s weak perimeter defense aligned perfectly with a PHX offense that leads the league in 3PA per game.

The Aces, however, have been a horrible Paint defense instead – surrendering the 2nd most PITP in their L5 games. Alyssa Thomas, of course, leads the charge in Paint FGA per game (9.0 with Copper), yet Copper has produced more than Satou has since her return.

At a certain point in the 3rd Quarter last game vs Mystics, Becky Hammon benched the entire starting lineup out of pure frustration. She noted, “Terrible. Start to finish. We lost every quarter but that fourth quarter and a lot of that is because our bench came in and competed and did a great job. That’s what we’re going to need… just not no togetherness defensively honestly.”

Then we got this too from Dana Evans:
“Becky’s been kind of teasing a platoon swap, a five in five out in that third quarter. It happened tonight… just to pick our starters up… we got to give them a boost. We got to be a spark off the bench.”

Sabally was the only starter last meeting to notch over 3 DREB, ending with 7 herself. The Aces team in general has conceded the 3rd most OPP RPG this month, and PHX’s zone leaves Satou in great position each time to be the beneficiary. Satou joins this list of frontcourt players to succeed in June:
– Alanna 13 Reb
– Shakira 13 Reb / Iriafen 9 Reb
– Thornton 11 Reb
– Boston 10 Reb
– Stevens 10 Reb / Hamby 8 Reb
– Ogwumike 10 RPG / Gabby 8 RPG

The Mercury defense has ranked relatively mid-pack in all key categories, yet do rank dead last in OPP Fastbreak Pts this month. This fits Jackie’s profile the best, yet historically it has been A’ja Wilson who has dominated this team. Averaging 31 PPG across four 2024 meetings, A’ja notched 21+ Points in all 4 games along with 14.5 RPG. Of course all PHX data has to be taken with a grain of salt, as the team had a complete offseason transformation from being one of the worst defenses last year.

Unsure what needs to be said about this Minnesota game, as hosting The Sun to kick off their homestretch is a recipe for a dominant victory. With Mabrey out for 2-4 weeks due to a hyperextended knee, the Sun get even worse, as she has the single-biggest impact on their ORTG as anyone on the team – going from 92.1 to 83.8 when she’s off the court. CON rankings in the month of June:
– 13th in OPP RPG
– 13th in DRTG / ORTG / NETRTG
– 13th in OPP Rim FGA / OPP FTM
– 12th in OPP 3PM

Collier had 33 Points, 6 STL+BLKs and 11 Reb in the prior meeting. Smith had 6 stocks in just 18 minutes of action (foul issues).

The Ballhalla tour continues, as they are on their 5th & final home game before being on the road for 8/10 July games. The Valkyries at home are 4-2 this month, 3rd in both DRTG & NETRTG in this span. Their defense on top options in those games was absolutely suffocating:
– Clark 11 Pts (14 FGA)
– Ogwumike 6 Pts (6 FGA) / Williams 9 Pts (8 FGA)
– A’ja 17 Pts (13 FGA) / Jackie 4 Pts (7 FGA)
– Sabrina 1 FGM (11 FGA) / Stew 2 Pts (2H)
– Atkins 20 Pts (16 FGA)

The Valkyries have allowed just 27.8 OPP PITP per game this month, a league-best mark, as Natalie Nakase’s team loves to collapse inside. They have surrendered high OPP 3PA volume as a biproduct, yet that is more often shown through a team’s supporting cast. Ogwumike should struggle, yet SEA offense is so spread out.

The Valkyries offensive players are a revolving door, seems like a pure hot hand approach. Kaitlyn Chen, the first ever Taiwanese WNBA player, had just 5 total points on the season before running 25 minutes and doubling that on Friday vs Chicago. In turn, that was Burton’s first non-blowout game with sub 25min all June.

The last time Burton faced SEA, she notched 9 assists off of 15 potentials. She has averaged 7.8 APG at home with 25+ minutes on the court – but Nakase can go to anyone at anytime, only Thornton has been safe.

We kick off in Dallas, where the ideal storyline for the game was Clark vs Bueckers, a battle of the two most recent 1st Round Picks. However, Clark missed Thursday’s game vs LA due to a groin injury suffered against Seattle; She is considered day-to-day. Indiana, who is down Bonner (quit) and Dantas (AmeriCup), only had a 6-lady rotation vs LA, so this back-to-back could not come at a worse time.

The Fever’s June defense continues to have a specific identity of surrendering a whole bunch of Paint Pts (39.3, 13th), while in turn allowing little, to no, perimeter production (5.2 3PM/gp, 2nd). The Wings just recently acquired Li Yueru from The Storm, where she played a career-high 34 minutes vs The Dream on Tuesday. She has posted a double-double in both career games with 30+ minutes, with 15 rebounds vs ATL and a shot profile that is pretty fearless – at least in the first quarter, with 7 FGA to kick off that game.

Koclanes on Yueru noted, “She is just a motor up and down… extremely physical screener helping our guards get some separation and then continuing to roll and put pressure on the defense… She’s going to keep you honest—she can hit a bunch of mid-range, she’s got really good touch from the perimeter.”

The Wings have surrendered the most Free Throws this month, and currently its Aari McDonald who leads this unit in FTA per game (5.8!). Otherwise, the defensive weaknesses of this squad are their OPP Pts off TOV (18.3, 12th) and OPP 3PM (9.1, 11th). While three individual players already notching double-digit 3PA vs DAL this month should be an encouraging sign for Clark, it’s less encouraging that Clark has made just 1/23 3PA across her last three games. DAL likely remains without DiJonai Carrington as their POA defender.

Napheesa Collier, the current frontrunner in the MVP race, is remaining questionable due to a back injury. Reeve noted that this was “something she has been dealing with”, so will see if she returns here before Minnesota has a 4-game home stretch. She was active in shootaround before last game, so leaning a bit more towards her available – especially from a recent loss.

The Dream defense has surrendered the fewest OPP 3PM this month, at just 4.3 per game. The current leader in 3PT volume for Lynx has been McBride, throwing up nearly 7 attempts per game – practically doubling her next closest teammate of Phee. Only two players have notched over six 3PA vs Dream (Mabrey & Sabrina with 8 each), while ATL also plays at the slowest PACE in the league.

Alanna Smith has notched 11+ Pts in just 5/23 games with 2 or fewer 3PM, on the road, and alongside Collier/McBride/Williams since the start of the last season.

The Dream have been more susceptible to interior, downhill guard play. On the season they rank B3 against PnR Ball Handlers, Off-Screen action, and Handoff Pts. If it’s anyone, then seems like Williams is set to succeed, despite failing to notch o13.5 Pts in any of the 4 meetings vs ATL last season. Mabrey, Ionescu, Ogunbowale, Atkins and Sykes averaged 26 PPG as a group in seven of ATL’s eight June games. Kelsey Mitchell was the only top guard not mentioned there, who shot 5-16 in her blowout loss.

Granted, McBride averaged 25.3 PPG in her 3 full games vs ATL last season. She likely leads MIN in specific Off Screen and Handoff sets.

On the other end, Atlanta had one of the worst offensive performances we’ve seen from a team this season on Tuesday. They scored just 55 points off 10 assists, with Rhyne Howard alone contributing 23 of those, while notching 0 assists off of 10 potentials. However, Rhyne crossed 15 points just once in 4 meetings vs Lynx last season.

Griner hasn’t notched over 10 points in 7 straight games for Atlanta, yet Dream HC Karl Smesko also held BG to sub 20 minutes in three of those games. However, he noted in the post game, “That’s on me. We got to find her a way to get more deep touches, she is so good around the rim. We have had games where we have been hitting the threes, so it was easy to forget about the post presence with Bri and BG. Got to figure out a way to get her more involved in the offense“.

Last season, Griner had double-digit points in all 5 games vs Minnesota.

The Storm look to get back on track after losing to Indiana, with a few notes from the press conference on how that went:
“We were one for 10 from three-point range [early]. I thought the quality of looks was great… What hurt us was fast break points too—we’re usually a top team in fast break points and we were getting our stops and just weren’t converting on offense… I thought we were inefficient in transition.”

“We did a poor job of keeping them out the paint tonight—I think they got 50 in the paint… We conceded a lot of offensive rebounds in the first half that hurt us a lot… They out-teamed us tonight. I thought they were better than us in every category tonight and it’s unacceptable.”

Should be an easy get-back against Connecticut, who has been about as bad of a team as you possibly can be professionally. With Mabrey out for 2-4 weeks due to a hyperextended knee, the Sun get even worse, as she has the single-biggest impact on their ORTG as anyone on the team – going from 92.1 to 83.8 when she’s off the court. CON rankings in the month of June:
– 13th in OPP RPG
– 13th in DRTG / ORTG
– 13th in OPP Rim FGA
– 12th in OPP 3PM

The last time SEA played a B3 defense, they won by 31 Points vs LAS behind 98 points from the team themselves. The best part of these lopsided SEA games is the previews we get of Dominque Malonga, the 19 year old who SEA selected 2nd overall from France, with a boatload of upside that will be awesome for years to come.

The Liberty without Jonquel/Fiebich are not a championship caliber team. Those two currently lead the team in DRTG when they are individually on the court. Jonquel with her hurt ankle is expected to miss 4-6 weeks, while Fiebich is still away at EuroBasket. They have ranked in the same groupings as Chicago, Sparks and Sun in DRTG, Pts off TOV and 2nd Chance Pts in these last 5 games. They allow the most OPP 3PM.

Copper, after returning from offseason knee surgery, has now notched three games under her belt this season with steadily increasing minutes. Tibbetts has noted each game that she will “play more” than the last, and last notched 23 minutes six games ago vs Chicago.

Alyssa Thomas went for 15 rebounds vs The Liberty last game, where Jonquel Jones went down in the opening quarter. She now has notched 8+ rebounds in 4/L5 meetings vs Breanna Stewart, while going under 8.5 assists in all 5 of those games.

Cloud absolutely commanded this offense last meeting just over a week ago, with 20 potentials. By far her most assisted target this season is Breanna Stewart, whose been a recipient of 35 of Cloud’s assists – more than all other starters combined. Stewart today has to be the sole focus on PHX’s defense, averaging 25 PPG across her last 5 games.

Fagbenle remains out for GSV, but it has not slowed down this expansion team’s hunger. Do not sleep on Ballhalla. The Valkyries at home are 4-2 this month, 3rd in both DRTG & NETRTG in this span. Their defense on top options in those games was absolutely suffocating:
– Clark 11 Pts (14 FGA)
– Ogwumike 6 Pts (6 FGA) / Williams 9 Pts (8 FGA)
– A’ja 17 Pts (13 FGA) / Jackie 4 Pts (7 FGA)
– Sabrina 1 FGM (11 FGA) / Stew 2 Pts (2H)

The Valkyries have allowed just 27.8 OPP PITP per game this month, a league-best mark, as Natalie Nakase’s team loves to collapse inside. They have surrendered high OPP 3PA volume as a biproduct, yet that is more often shown through a team’s supporting cast. Expect Angel Reese to struggle here.

Reese’s co-star in Kamilla Cardoso has left the team to compete for Brasil in the AmeriCup, which is likely to leave Elizabeth Williams to be inserted in the starting lineup. At 32 years of age, Williams and Reese individually allow the highest OPP PITP per 30min when they are on the court. Monique Billings can thrive here, but Nakase has only shown consistent minutes to Thornton in this frontcourt.

Chicago’s defense has surrendered the most OPP 3PM on the year, yet HC Marsh did finally address this problem ahead of their match vs LA on Tuesday, noting:
“Just running people off the line at this point. Teams make a lot of threes because they also shoot a lot of threes against us and so we have to adjust to that… knowing that teams are playing kind of outside in against us, so just higher level of aggression running people off the line.”

The Sparks shot 7-26 vs CHI, which from a volume standpoint doesn’t exactly make that quote encouraging.

Veronica Burton with 10 assists vs NYL on Wednesday, which is her second double-digit passing effort this season yet was her highest potential assist count at 22. Of the players to notch over 10 potentials vs CHI, which is a mark Burton has had in 12 of her 13 games since the opening, they produced:
– Dream: Canada 8, Rhyne 4
– Mercury: AT 8 & 15 Ast
– Liberty: Cloud 8, Sabrina 7
– Wings: Paige 8, Arike 7, DiJonai 6
– Fever: Clark 10, Boston 5, McDonald 3

Thornton is Burton’s most assisted too teammate.

The Aces picked up a win vs Indiana to end their 3 game skid, and this will be the first leg of a back-to-back to end an eight game stretch that featured 7 at their home stadium. Aces absolutely need to pick up both these wins before entering a 5 game roadtrip, and this starts with Connecticut tonight.

The Connecticut Sun are awful, hosting a 2-12 record that features 6 straight losses, and will be playing one of the trio of Aces, Lynx and Storm for their next six games. In June, they not only have the worst DRTG (113) yet also have the worst ORTG (90.5). Now with Marina Mabrey out for 2-4 weeks, that ORTG falls further on the year to 86.4. CON surrenders 39.1 OPP RPG (13th), 21.3 OPP APG (11th) and 13.8 FGM at the Rim (13th).

Tina Charles with an appalling 34.5% usage rate when Mabrey is off the court this season, producing 21.3 Pts per 30min. Lindsay Allen is the team leader in ball handling now despite being off bench, but we get a lot of Sheldon and Rivers from the starters.

I get most intrigued by the rookie duo of Rivers and Morrow, both extremely talented. Only Rivers has been able to generate consistent minutes as of late, as the LSU product Morrow still has to fight for frontcourt minutes with Charles & Nelson-Ododa. She has averaged 20 PR per game across her last three, despite playing just under 20 minutes per contest.

The Aces defense has surrendered the 3rd most PITP in June, by far the worst aspect of their defense. A’ja noted in postgame that they, “Really need to defend the Pick-and-Roll better” after Boston went for 26 points. Hammon prior to this game vs Indiana, “Our defense was atrocious again in the third quarter, and that was the first five, not that second unit”. Boston joined 6 other PF/Cs to notch >15 Pts vs Aces this month.

Can take any Aces player to succeed, yet A’ja Wilson likely has the most motivation to get a quality game under her belt; Noted after an 8-21 shooting performance vs Indiana that, “It wasn’t a typical A’ja performance. Every win is a need for us.”. She shot 13 times in the 1H vs Indiana, while also notching 13 in the 1H against CON last meeting – both of these marks being season high.

The Valkyries host Liberty today, who are expected to be with Sabrina Ionescu today after she missed the last game with a neck injury. The Valks have won 4 straight home games, which included double-digit victories over The Aces, Sun and Fever. At home in June they rank:
– 3rd in DRTG
– 1st in OPP PITP (24)
– 1st in OPP Pts off TOV (11)

Most impressively is how they have absolutely swarmed this top options, as the only frontcourt player to reach 20+ Points against them this month has been Napheesa Collier (who else?). Granted, Stewart did cover this mark in both games at Barclay’s to kick off the season, producing 19 FTA in their most recent meeting.

Temi Fagbenle was activated by the team after her EuroBasket team (Great Britain) was eliminated, which further bolsters the interior defense of this squad. Salaun remains out as France is onto the elimination round. With Fagbenle, Thornton and Hayes all in the mix, Billings has yet to crack double-digit scoring.

The Liberty lost their statistically two most impactful defenders in Jonquel Jones (ankle, out 4-6 weeks) and Fiebich (EuroBasket). They have ranked in the same groupings as Chicago, Sparks and Sun in DRTG, Pts off TOV and 2nd Chance Pts in these last 4 games.

CHI v ATL:
Chicago will be playing the 2nd leg of their b2b after getting absolutely smoked by PHX. This game followed the trend for CHI, where their defense was successful in limiting OPP PITP (4th in June, 30 for PHX), yet once again get pounded by perimeter action.

The best performances against Chicago in June have all come from these high volume shooters:
– Mabrey 22 Pts (7/17, 12 3PA)
– Plum 28 Pts (9/18, 10 3PA)
– Arike 26 PPG (9.5/20.5, 8.5 3PA)
– Clark 20 Pts (6/13, 8 3PA)
– Rhyne Howard 36 Pts (25 FGA, 19 3PA

Even more remarkable is that 19 players in Chicago’s six June games have been able to notch 15+ points! None of these 19 players did this without at least notching one 3PM.

The choice will always be which perimeter shooter to choose amongst Howard and Gray, but they can work as an absolute tandem unit. Gray had 4 of her 5 assists to Rhyne Howard 3s in the prior meeting, with 9 overall potentials, while Canada had 13 potentials to lead the team.

After The Mercury threw up 25 assists, CHI now allows the 4th most assists this month.

The big CHI frontcourt has been successful at limiting opposing big rebounds, put other lengthy SG/SFs have gotten solid numbers from having to also crash. In this matchup, Rhyne/Gray combined for 15 amongst themselves. With Canada on Atkins, it allows these two to roam off Nurse/Banham/Allen etc. Other block players have succeeded:
– Mabrey 5 Reb
– Clark 10 Reb
– Citron 9 Reb
– Paige 5 Reb

The question that must be asked is whether Chicago can keep this game competitive. The Sky now have the worst ORTG in June, crossing 70 points just once this entire month, which really came off a practice round 4th quarter just last game as they entered the final stretch down 34.

However there is one shining light, and that is shown by ATL allowing the 3rd most PITP this month. The reasoning for this hole has centralized from Griner, whose slow feet has left ATL allowing Top 5 Pts to both PnR Handlers and Roll Men.

Atkins notched 5 assists off a season high 12 potentials last meeting, with 3 of those coming through direct PnR action (all to Reese/Williams). All CHI starters at least got the ability to rest the 4th Q yesterday.

IND v LVA:
The Aces have dropped 3 straight games now before facing Indiana, and Becky Hammon really does not like losing:
“[Our 2nd half] is more than an Achilles heel, it’s a thing. Maybe I’ll just start a different five in the third quarter—we’ll see. Anything’s on the table at this point because it’s gross… I might change who we start in the third quarter.”
“Our defense was atrocious again in the third quarter, and that was the first five, not that second unit. I actually thought our second unit had a good run there”

Would have to imagine it’s Loyd that is mainly on the defensive chopping block, who was already a likely candidate to head to the bench as Hammon wanted to increase her scoring output.

Granted, A’ja Wilson really doesn’t like losing either. The Fever have been one of the most porous interior defenses in June, allowing the 2nd most PITP at 39 per game. This paint success has actually come directly from bigs:
– Breezy Jones 21 Pts (9/14)
– Iriafen 20 Pts (9/11)
– Charles 20 Pts (6/17)
– Thornton 16 (5/11)

The 2024 MVP produced 30+ Pts in a quarter of her games last season.

The Aces, somehow, have surrendered 25.9 OPP Guard RPG in June. This has made up over 70% of the total rebounds they have surrendered in that span (36.4), which is the 2nd most in the league behind Connecticut. This has been genuine success too:
– Arike 8 Reb / DiJonai 8 Reb
– Gabby (F?) 12 Reb
– Sims 4 R / Plum 4 R
– Burton 7 R / Martin 7 R

Clark averaged dead on to 5.5 RPG vs LVA last season, so unlikely that there is much edge in the line there. However, Clark never surpassed 20 Pts or 2 3PM against Aces last season. Granted, it wasn’t due to the lack of volume in the final two meetings, where she shot 20 times per game – in addition to Mitchell’s 17.5 FGA.

Could be in for a game now, as Hammon is correct that The Aces defense has been shaky. They rank 10th in DRTG in June while allowing the 2nd most FGM, specifically being the most from ATB, Midrange and Paint (non-RA). Given Aces don’t often double up top, as lateral speed isn’t a strength with a Gray/Loyd backcourt, it has left stars getting good volume:
– Arike 17 FGA / Paige 19 FGA (best backcourt comparison)
– SDS 16 FGA / Gabby 15.5 FGA
– Williams 23 FGA / McBride 12 FGA

DAL v WSH:
This new Mystics lineup is all about high pressure, which we played into with Rhyne assists last game. With Iriafen and Austin in the lineup, The Mystics have been a relentless unit for high trapping off screens. The two games this has been applied has produced:
– Howard 11 FGA (6 Ast)
– Atkins 9 FGA (7 Ast)

If they can hold Rhyne to 11 FGA, then can expect the same pressure to be applied to Paige Bueckers.

As you could maybe assume, The Mystics defense has now flipped from being a 3PT leak to a complete inside leak, allowing the most Rim FGM in the league in June (16.3 per game). This is 3 more than the next worst team.

Koclanes on Li Yueru:
“Just super impressed with her ability to get up and down and to play through mistakes when it’s not perfect, and then just for her to execute defensively… asking her to get up at the point of attack with players like Marina coming off and being able to hedge and be more aggressive and then being able to read other ones and be able to plug and then be able to pound with Tina. Offensively, she’s just a connector, a fantastic screener… the bonus is she throws in a three, which she’s a fantastic shooter, and that was a big three.”

The Wings still surrendered 36 PITP to CON last game, and remain a B5 Paint D in June. The Mystics frontcourt is a revolving door. Iriafen notched all her 24 minutes in 3Q last game, as she picked up her 5th foul in the opening minute of the 4th then was never put back in the game (in favor of Engstler).

Meanwhile, Austin put up her career high of 28 Points in the 1 point loss being 13/17 from the field. No frontcourt player has gone under 13 points if they shot over 10 times vs DAL this season.

NYL v SEA:
The Wings without Jonquel/Fiebich are not a championship caliber team. Those two currently lead the team in DRTG when they are individually on the court. Jonquel with her hurt ankle is expected to miss 4-6 weeks, while Fiebich is still away at EuroBasket.

In the L3 Games, the Liberty have plummeted to a 109.2 DRTG, which is only better than Connecticut (per usual) in June. They have surrendered the most 2nd chance Pts and ATB 3PM in this span. 10 Players in this 3 game span covered Gabby Williams’ 12.5 Pt line, who is already over this mark in 7/L10 games with 30+ minutes. This booms up to 18.3 PPG (4/4) against below average defenses. Keep disrespecting the silver medalist.

As I have thought so often recently, it’s going to be a rough day for Breanna Stewart. Going into a ton of length from SEA. Likely that Williams takes Sabrina here, so Ogwumike/Magbegor can focus all their attention on Stewart.

CON v GSV:
Do not sleep on Ballhalla. The Valkyries have now won three straight home games vs Aces, Storm and Fever. Their defense on top options in those games was absolutely suffocating:
– Clark 11 Pts (14 FGA)
– Ogwumike 6 Pts (6 FGA) / Williams 9 Pts (8 FGA)
– A’ja 17 Pts (13 FGA) / Jackie 4 Pts (7 FGA)

Only PHX this season has allowed fewer PITP than GSV, as Natalie Nakase’s team loves to collapse inside. They have surrendered high OPP 3PA volume as a biproduct, yet that is more often shown through a team’s supporting cast. Expect Tina Charles to struggle here.

Mabrey is questionable here after hyperextending her knee vs DAL the game before. Looked to be in a lot of pain but she came back out for the 2H and ended up finishing the game. Questionable today, will see.

On the Valks side, anyone can thrive. The most reliable minutes for this team only lands in Thornton and Burton for 30+ a game, while Billings has been pure boom or bust. Despite Thornton being in foul issues last game, the shooting explosion of Chloe Bibby – the Aussie signed 6 days ago – left Billings with sub 20min. Given this was Bibby’s first game with on-floor action, it’s hard to tell how much of her run was hot-hand based.

CON rankings in the month of June:
– 13th in DRTG
– 13th in OPP Rim FGA
– 13th in OPP RPG

23 Players in CON’s 7 June games have 5+ rebounds.

Published: Saturday, Jun 21, 12:15 PM CT

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Los Angeles Sparks @ Minnesota Lynx

• 1 Baller Systems on the Over
  • ▲ Play over on team (Lynx) that has had a high assist-to-turnover ratio for multiple games
    
• Lynx: #2 in Offensive Rating
• Sparks: #10 in Defensive Rating
• Sparks: 9-4 O/U, 4-0 O/U as road underdogs
• Baller Matchup algorithm: 55.7% chance of going over the total.

✅ Plays:
Over 163.5
Lynx Team Total Over 86.5

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The first place Lynx are firing on all cylinders lately, 2nd in the league in offensive efficiency and showing strong ball movement night after night. The Sparks, meanwhile, have been a consistent over team — especially on the road — thanks to their defensive struggles.

Between the matchup metrics and the system trends, the value today is clearly on the over. Expect points.

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Napheesa Collier, who is currently the league’s frontrunner MVP, left The Lynx’s last game at the 8min mark in the 3rd Q with a non contact back injury, didn’t return. She now holds a questionable tag after 3 full days of rest, yet there may be more merit to holding her out. The Lynx went 5-1 in their Commissioner’s Cup games with a point differential of +77, garnering them a spot in the finals for The Western Conference along with home court advantage. The Cup will be their 5th game in the next 10 days, which may leave the players accruing some fatigue in the 4 prior regular season games.

Assistant Coach Thibault noted yesterday, “She was feeling decent today, I think Cheryl had said it’s something she’s dealt with before so just trying to get her feeling good, we know it’s a long year”.

Alanna Smith notched a double double in Minnesota’s last game once Collier went down, as Collier injured and Shepard at EuroBasket leaves their frontcourt incredibly depleted. She has the biggest jump in usage with Collier off the court (26.4) versus on (13.9).

Of course, the true usage hog is Courtney Williams. She shot 15 TIMES after Collier went down, which translated to 18 Points. She leads the squad in USG this season with Collier off at 31.7%, producing 18.6 FGA per 30min and 6.5 Ast (47.8% AST rate).

After having foul issues last game vs LA paired with a MIN blowout, Court played just 18 minutes. She has o21.5 PRA in 7/8 games with 24+ minutes this season, and 6/6 with >26.

Another biproduct could be Hamby, who notched 8 DREB defending Collier last game and has 5+ in 10/13 games this season. She has notched 5+ in all meetings vs MIN since the start of last season, with 6+ in 5/6. Minnesota has been a B4 rebounding unit in June, returning to a similar ranking they were last season without Shepard.

On a separate note, Rickea Jackson has really blossomed to form as Sims remains out due to personal reasons. Sparks luckily do get to welcome back Kelsey Plum. Jackson has notched 21.7 PPG across her last 3 games, with 33+ minutes in all of them and a 24% usage rate.

The Mystics last game started both Austin and Iriafen to match with Chicago’s size, and ended up winning that game by 7. Should happen again as they move Dolson to the bench.

The strength of this lineup is easily their movement, which allows them to do a lot of trapping off screens and rotate around easily. Against Chicago last game, they trapped Atkins off screens almost every single time, as both Iriafen and Austin are capable.

However, the drawback is liking against these big bodies inside, especially those who are able to cut or sit in dunker’s spot. Atkins notched 7 assists last game off of 11 potentials. Rhyne Howard in games with double digit potentials has notched:
– 9, 4, 6, 5, 7, 10 and 6 assists

Despite this pressure off screens, WSH still allows a ton of 3PA from ATB. All 5 of the players to average >5 3PA on the year notched 6+ vs WSH this month. Keep in mind that they held Atkins to just 1 3PA, which may be a similar focus on Rhyne.

Think Brionna is the best of these bigs at effectively cutting and finding space, while BG prefers to just look for a Post Up or pop for a 3ball. Griner was also downgraded to Q, which would be a benefit.

— DAL v CON —

The Wings’ only win of the season came against Connecticut, by 20. This game on the back of Paige’s 7 assists, which came on the back of 16 potentials.

Connecticut, in all there struggles, are allowing the most Fastbreak Pts and rank B3 in OPP PITP along with OPP APG. This is also going to be their 4th game in 6 days, as this schedule continues to be brutal. Tina Charles was practically rested in the 2H vs PHX last game, being the 2nd leg of a b2b (which Charles never suited up for last season), so likely the most energized piece for CON today.

Mabrey has now notched double-digit potentials in 5 straight games. We’ve had some solid quotes from her on handling duties as the Sun continue to drop games: “I think it starts with me being more assertive at the one, like making sure that I poise the team and calm us down and make sure that we get the ball where we want it to go and get it from side to side, so that’s on me for sure.”

Without McCowan and Siegrist, Wings starting 5 have produced just 5 OREB per game, which has helped smaller guards in being effective on the glass. Gray, Loyd, Jackie and Burton all notched 3+ in the 2 games without them.

— SEA v LVA —

A’ja Wilson has missed three days due to her concussion protocol, so likely back today. Much needed, as The Aces have been beaten to a pulp by Seattle before, and have dropped two straight as they now enter a 4 game home stretch – need to pick up as many wins as possible.

While both Jackie and Chelsea have notched double digit potentials in the last 5 games, subsequently including the 3 games without A’ja, Jackie has only mustered up 5 potentials per game against Seattle with Gabby Williams defending her.

Gabby Williams has been the best Seattle player this season, shooting 50-43-85 splits while leading the team in minutes, passing production and taking on POA defensive duties. Is Q today with an ankle injury vs LA, but expecting her to suit up.

She led SEA in offensive production last meeting vs LVA off 18 FGA, as The Aces remain an incredibly porous interior defense.

ATL v NYL:

Jonquel is officially day-to-day, yet Brondello already said that she will play, and that won’t be with any restrictions. Her presence will be huge against this Dream team who are surprisingly struggling against Post Up (12th) and PnR overall as a system (10th). Likely the attack of Griner’s drop coverage.

We have seen frequent PnR Roll bigs notch good volume, such as:
– Cardoso/Williams 20 FGA
– Iriafen/Shakira 20 FGA
– Boston 9 FGA

Jonquel notched 20, 17 and 15 Pts vs Griner last season. Jonquel’s usage this season has remained at 25.3% – over 5% higher than in 2024. Oddly enough, no player has notched over 6 assists vs ATL in all of June. Unsure completely why, but ATL has been weak to Pullup shots and Off Screen work, so more individual action.

Stewart with Jonquel has produced less often, notching 30+ PRA in just 2/7 games. With Sabally also in the frontcourt now, Stewart can focus less on the glass. The only player to even notch over 20 Pts vs ATL in June was Mabrey, who did it out of the PnR role where she picked Griner apart off her jumpshots. Sabrina or Cloud likely to take that production.

Cloud hasn’t notched double-digit scoring outings for 7 straight NYL games, so it’s really hard to promote her despite what should be a quality matchup.

Allisha Gray just notched her career high in Pts last game at 32, get that lady in the All Star games. She is currently third is PPG this season at 21, behind just Clark (21.6) and Napheesa (26!!). While Gray’s perimeter shooting has been sensational this season (42%), she still has a player archetype that prefers to go downhill and slash.

All year, only one non-frontcourt player has notched over 3 FGM at the Rim vs The Liberty (Kelsey Mitchell, 4). Hard to get inside, and Clark did a majority of her damage from deep last game (7/14).

Griner since her injury has averaged just 14.8 PRA per game, compared to 23 PRA per game before it.

The Dream have a solid rotation of backcourt defenders with Canada back in the mix. We saw Sykes last game for WSH get an assortment of matchups, typically being Gray or Rhyne, while the other took Citron. Rhyne took Clark in the fever matchups,Canada should be focused on pressuring Cloud, yet whoever takes Sabrina is going to struggle on the glass.

Clark is the only non frontcourt player to notch over 5 rebounds vs NYL all year, while both Gray and Rhyne are set at 5.5.

CON v IND:

Saniya Rivers was listed available to play last game vs Chicago, yet didn’t end up playing – guess the illness she was dealing with was still persevering. Bonner is out for personal reasons, but given she is dead-last in the entire league in NETRTG (-33.2), this may just be a positive.

The big storyline here though is that The Fever are in a three-way tie with ATL/NYL in Cup standings. While they would need ATL to lose one of their final games vs NYL & WSH, a big win here in addition to that scenario would help their chances at home court in the final. The Lynx on the other end has a +63 differential through 5 games, while IND is +31 through 4, so expect these starters to search for a >30 Pt win and get some deeper blowout run.

CON is about as bad as you can be after losing to Chicago. In June, this team is ranking:
– 13th in DRTG (115.5 – next closest is 110.1)
– 13th in ORTG (86.5)
– 13th in Pts off Fastbreak (18.3 – next closest is 14.6)
– 13th in OPP APG, OPP C RPG
– 13th in Cup differential (-89)

Those who can get inside on CON, especially if they can operate in fastbreak, has thrived recently:
– Angel 11 Pts (2-7)
– Iriafen 12 (8 FGA), Sykes 28 Pts (12 FGA)
– Brionna 8 FGA (24min), Gray 13 FGA
– Jonquel 13 Pts (7 FGA, 23min)

Boston has a great trait of being able to seal quickly in transition, while also averaging 20 PPG in games with 24+ min and Clark this season. She ended on a 7/8 run with the same constraints to close out last season, also got up to 11 potentials last game.

No team has allowed more PITP than Indiana has in June, which has been an astounding 41.5 per game. NYL just notched 44 despite Clark back and in a loss (granted, still 88 Pts scored). However, slashers like Gray, Sykes and Stewart are 3 of the Top 5 in FGA <8′ in this span. Charles produced 16 FGA last game, but Nelson-Ododa could be better suited after shooting 2/8 in the first meeting.

Mabrey, after loss to Chicago, “I think it starts with me being more assertive at the one, like making sure that I poise the team and calm us down and make sure that we get the ball where we want it to go and get it from side to side, so that’s on me for sure.”

LVA v MIN:

A’ja will remain out due to concussion protocol, and the way the Aces have been playing has been discouraging to a competitive game environment. Even with A’ja, this team has been a B3 Paint defense all season long, and PHX attacked them with 25 FGA in the Paint.

Alanna Smith, as always, is back on the table. She averaged 31.6 fantasy points vs LVA last season despite just 28 minutes per game, a number she can smash as Shepard remains out. Hurt her ankle last game, which she returned from after halftime, yet was also able to sit the 4th quarter due to blowout. Isn’t even is questionable for this meeting.

The Mercury threw up 32 3PA vs LVA last game, who might be focused more on a collapse now that A’ja can’t be there to rim defend. The team is too well coached to not throw the house at Collier, who in turn is too intelligent to force herself into double teams. Napheesa has led the Lynx in potential assists across the last 4 contests, making the right read out of pressure.

I will almost never fade MVPhee, but shooting options like Smith and McBride likely get good volume up.

Young and Chelsea notched 12 and 14 potentials each last game vs PHX, getting to share their duties yet now entering a MIN defense that has ranked Top 3 at limiting OPP APG in both this season and 2024.

WSH v CHI:

Angel Reese with her first career triple-double last game, and also was the fastest forward to achieve a TD in league history. The best part of this game was her 2 turnovers, and WSH defense hasn’t been generating a lot of turnovers in June (10th).

What WSH does allow is a ton of OPP 3PA, at 30.5 per game, which is the most in the league. Chicago doesn’t generate a ton of 3PT looks, but Atkins does have it in her arsenal – while also facing her former team for the first time this season. This could get personal, as she will directly face off with Citron, who WSH drafted with the first round pick that they traded Atkins for.

The Mystics’ last 2 games have both featured >30 Pt margins of victory/defeat, yet Kiki Iriafen was pacing for her usual 27 minutes last game. This is encouraging, as she is in a highly competitive WSH backcourt that includes Austin & Edwards. What we got from Stanley the game before:

“With Kiki having a wonderful start and Kira having some really good minutes… it’s hard… Sika’s work ethic hasn’t dipped… it’s some amount of time, but it’s also just having a lot of good players in the front court and some depth there.”

Iriafen faces a CHI defense that is B3 vs Putbacks, PnR Roll Man and Transition.

GSV v DAL:

The Wings are already 1-11, but now their IR continues to grow. Ty Harris is already missing the entire season from her knee injury, and now Maddy Siegrist fractured her knee, won’t be season-long but for the foreseeable future. McCowan and Geiselsoder are two bigs off to EuroBasket, so the frontcourt is very depleted.

As you could imagine, DAL is super bad. They are currently surrendering 16.4 stocks per game in June, allowing the most blocks and the most steals against them. The 4 Centers to face DAL in this month have all notched 2+ blocks (Ezi 5, Alanna 4, Azura 3, Mack 2 in 13min), while 13 players notched multiple steals.

However, Valks don’t currently have a real Center, as Fagbenle has left to participate in EuroBasket. Her, Salaun, Vanloo and Zandalasini are the EU inactives. Thus, the frontcourt is only Thornton and Billings, while Talbot & Amihere can add a bit of size for the SF/PF spots.

Billings has 6+ Reb in 17/19 games where she saw just 22+ minutes. She’s been a journeyman, but DAL is on the list of former teams.

The Valkyries have won three games straight, and in those three we saw Thornton produce a double-double in each of them, averaging 33.3 PRA per game.

Meanwhile, Burton has came absolutely alive in tandem, producing 9 APG in that span off 16.6 potentials – despite one of them being alongside Vanloo in the starting line. Her FS is only adjusting for 1 stock off PRA line, despite averaging over 2 stocks a game. The Wings are B3 in OPP APG, while Diggins-Smith is the only guard to notch under 3 reb with >28min of action vs DAL in June. The notable figures:
– McBride/Carleton 3, 5
– Sims/Plum 3, 5
– Whitcomb 7
– Jackie 5

Plum, Williams and Wheeler all notched 10+ RA vs DAL of their 4 games in June.

We need to have some conversations about DiJonai Carrington. The Wings have a NETRTG of +12.4 with her off the court, compared to -15.1 with her on, leaving her individually with a NETRTG of -27.5. No one else on this team is even in double digits! This means nothing for prop betting as long as Koclanes refuses to acknowledge analytics and DAL remains injured, but worth noting.

Valks defense is another team that is struggling to defend the arc, while loving to show collapse on the inside. This unit has ranked Top 3 at limiting PnR Roll Man (2nd), Post Up (3rd) and Rim FGM (1st). Paige has now shot 19 times in the last 2 games, but Nakase is aware enough to look to limit her completely.

SEA v LAS:

Kelsey Plum is out for LA with a lower leg injury. Sparks have already been a bottom tier defense, but now will also see some offensive struggles. Game may not be competitive, yet LA’s weakness on defense has been their perimeter D, which doesn’t align with the slashing SEA offense.

Gabby Williams has now notched double-digit potentials in 4 straight games, tying Diggins-Smith in potentials in that span, which makes the constant discrepancy in their lines odd. Williams has o21.5 PRA in 5/6 wins this season and fantasy in 4 of those. Sparks are a B3 OPP STCK team in June.

Will kick off with the most notable reporter notes:

The Indiana starting 5 actually beat OKC 41-39 last game (in 16 minutes), while any other 5-man lineup was outscored by 18 points in the other 32 minutes. In the NBA Finals, the Indiana Pacers have a +3.3 NETRTG with Haliburton is on the court and a -34.9 NETRTG when off.

Haliburton also noted that he has been starting bad, and that The Pacers must start strong and “have to figure out how to be better earlier in games…”

As we have seen so often in this postseason run, Haliburton did have an ultra-productive 4th quarter, notching 12 points and 2 assists in those 8 minutes of run. Tyrese had 4 of his 5 makes come off action with Myles Turner, to attack the Hartenstein drop coverage and get Haliburton moving downhill. In turn, Turner had 2 assists in his 5 minutes from handoffs to Tyrese.

Carlisle: “There are so many things that have to go right on a set of two possessions to get the ball into the heart of their defense. You know, you’ve got to get a stop, a rebound. You’ve got to be able to get the ball up the floor without a turnover, and then you have to be able to get it to the lane and to the rim. It’s a tough task.”

The OKC defense has switched to a single big for this series, which makes sense given this matchup. The way Chet has defended Turner has been completely relaxed, and he produced 17 rebound chances as a product of that.

However, Pacers decided that Chet roaming free as a rim protection anchor is not ideal, so they went straight at him out of half. Possession log out of half:
– Turner drive on Chet (fouled)
– Turner 3PA
– Turner Elbow Jumper
– Turner drive (fouled)
– Turner post up (fouled)
– Turner drive layup attempt
– Turner 3PA

After this run, Hartenstein subbed in pretty fast, cutting Chet’s rotation to just under 3 minutes. Turner in that 2H notched 8 FGA, 3 from deep, and produced 12 points. He ended with 5 FGA on both Holmgren and Hartenstein individually, yet all of his FTA & 3 of his 3PA vs on Chet.

Turner and Siakam both should see big rises in usage for Game 3. Pascal Siakam had just 1 post possession last game, with Tyrese noting during the game (mic’d up), “Keep sealing! Just keep doing it! I’ll get it to you, come on!”. Siakam notched 3 2H FGA last game. A goal of Indiana has to be to get him more immediate touches, especially on SGA. If game runs through Siakam, then Holmgren rebounds is back on the table – but hard to rely on him staying on the court.

When looking at the Indiana defense, the main problems that have arose were OKC’s PnR and Haliburton facing offball screens. OKC in Game 2 had an average Pick-and-Roll start distance of 29.2′ – which was the highest mark of their entire season, practically starting at the logo. Of course this was productive, as they produced 1.3 Pts per possession that featured PnR.

Indiana should look to pursue going under on screens, which would return SGA back to being a Pullup 3PT shooter – similar to how Minnesota treated him defensively.

Carlisle: “We’re going to need our crowd. Caruso and Wiggins, both those guys shot it well and caused other problems… Shai you can mark down for 34 points before they even get on the play, the guy is going to score. We got to find ways to make it tough on him.“

Granted, it is hard to beat Shai when he is playing at his own tempo amidst the Indiana swarm. Shai had fewer zero-pass possessions in Game 2 than in Game 1, while also throwing in 8 assists. “I thought his floor game tonight was really, really in a great rhythm,” Daigneault said after Game 2.  

Read an article the other day called, “The Answer to Every Question is Alex Caruso”, and wanted to throw out some great points from that piece.  On top of ranking first in defensive estimated plus-minus (for the second time in three years) this season, Caruso also finished second among rotation players in “total field goal difference percentage”—which measures the difference in opponent field goal percentage when he contested any shot on the court—and fifth in total points saved per 100 contests (minimum 1,000 minutes).

Through 2 games, Haliburton has yet to score on Caruso, while he has held the trio of Siakam, Hali and Nembhard to combined 3-13 shooting.

From SGA, “He plays defense off of feel and awareness, almost like a lot of guys play offense. It’s pretty special to see up close and personal every day. It’s literally a talent of his, to feel the game the way he does defensively.”