Category: Betting

Three games for Tuesday, which are:
GSV @ ATL | 6:30 CT
CHI @ WSH | 5:30 ET
LV @ LAS | 7:00 PT

Will start in DC, where we have good news for Chicago with Angel Reese probable to return. Atkins remains out. Last game vs Indiana, Rachel Banham dropped 26 Pts, which was just 3 points away from her career high.

The Mystics typical defensive strategy is to force defenses inside, which is really great for this Chicago offense that is dependent on their frontcourt of Reese/Cardoso. They have done so as a biproduct of high pressure on opposing guards, which has generated ultra low 3PA:
– Diggins 1 3PA | Gabby 2 3PA
– Plum 6 3PA | Allemand 1
– Plum 5 3PA | Allemand 3 | Rickea 2
– Diggins 1 3PA | Gabby 1
– Chelsea 2 3PA | Jackie 2
– Copper 3 3PA | Whitcomb 4 3PA

Inside, both of AT and Sabally did as expected, producing 27 and 15 points respectively. Washington continues to get beaten up inside at the expense of their high pressure. Ogwumike notched 18, Hamby notched 25 PPG, followed by Rickea at 22 PPG, Azura at 15 PPG and Magbegor with 13.5 PPG all in Washingtons last 5 games.

In their L10 games, The Mystics have given up 40.4 PITP per game – by far the most in the league. In games where CHI has been able to notch over 30 PITP, which includes a game vs WSH where they notched 50, here are some key metrics (in L15 games):
– 75+ Pts in 7/8 games, averaging 83.15 PPG and 85.8 in L5.
– Angel 18.1 PPG, with 14+ Pts in 6/7 games with 22+ min (only miss was a TD vs CON)
– Cardoso 10+ Pts in 5/6

Both of these two have had their success against Mystics, with Angel notching 17 & 22 Pts alongside Cardoso with 18 in her only game. Atkins produced 6 assists per game as she faced this pressure, with just 2.5 3PA. This should directly translate to Banham, while her 3PT success is also unlikely to a repeat of Indiana.

Cardoso is over 19.5 P+R in 7/8 games with >26 minutes this season, averaging 26.5 PR, with her only miss being 19. She is a flawless 5/5 in this sample when alongside Angel.

Last game, Chicago had just 8 active players, and have since released Marquesha Davis & Moriah Jefferson. It’s possible that in addition to Reese’ return, they can get up to 9 players with Van Lith.

Chicago’s offense has committed the most turnovers in the league on both the season (17.5) and in their L10 games (17.8). In the recent span, they are being blocked the most in the league (5.5) and stolen from the most as well (9.2). Hilarious, and they also generate the fewest OPP TOV at just 11 per game as a bonus.

Shakira Austin has been a stock machine, leading the team in both steals per game (1.3) and blocks (1.4) in Washington’s L10 games despite just 26 minutes. Sykes & Citron are right there with her in the steals department, both averaging 1.1 per game as they take on the top guard defenders.

With Edwards still out, Engstler has been getting solid bench frontcourt run – with a sprinkle of Dolson. Neither of these impact Austin, who was pacing for 30 minutes last game vs Mercury along with 15 in the 1H. She has notched 16+ Pts in 8/L9 games with 26+ minutes on the floor.

Chicago is giving up over 20.4 Pts off TOV (most) and 13.5 fastbreak Pts (most), which in turn leaves them surrendering a modestly-high amount of PITP. In halfcourt sets, they give up a ton of threes, the 11th most specifically in their L10 games. Good 3&D players that can thrive both through transition and from behind the arc have been killer; Here is the sample of players who average 1+ steal, >2 FBPTS & >3 3PA have notched these numbers vs CHI (25+ min) since July 1st:
– Courtney Williams 16.5 PPG (14.8 FGA, 4.5 3PA, 1.8 STK)
– Allisha Gray 14 Pts (10 FGA, 8 3PA, 1 STK, 26min)
– Skylar Diggins 21 Pts (14 FGA, 6 3PA, 2 STK)
– Azura Stevens 19 PPG (11 FGA, 6 3PA, 6 STK)
– Kelsey Mitchell 35 Pts (19 FGA, 10 3PA, 3 STK)

Sykes and Citron both qualify for this. Losing Atkins also means losing a POA defender for Chicago, further opening them up for guard play. Chicago has allowed the most FGA per 40min to guards in their L10 games.
—–

The Valkyries, who were playing their second game with Thornton and Billings, just lost by 31 points to Connecticut – which was not a result I ever expected to see. That was only The Sun’s third win of the entire season, and was the most points they have scored all season long – so can only imagine what Atlanta can do against this defense.

Burton: “We need to hold ourselves to a higher standard of basketball, 95 points is pretty insane”
Nakase: “It would have been nicer if we played at 7, think the product would have been better. I think the time should have been factored when we’re going west coast to east coast trip”

The Sun notched 36 PITP last game, making up just over a third of their total points. The Valkyries have allowed the fewest PITP in any season split you take, at just 28 per game in their L10 games. This is generally a good defensive trait to have when facing a massive Atlanta frontcourt in Brionna Jones & Brittney Griner. When these two met earlier this month, Griner and Jones combined for just 13 FGA.

In turn, GSV is giving up nearly 30 threes a game in the same span (29), so Howard and Gray got up 15 combined threes in this matchup. Typically the 3PA they surrender is not to opposing POA’s (Point-of-Attack), rather is from the player they choose to “sacrifice” in order to double inside action. This includes Yueru and Geiselsoder with 8 attempts of DAL’s 26 total. The game before SEA got up 27, with Nneka notching 7 & Wheeler with 8. Mercury told the same story, with Westbeld seeing 8 and Akani supporting at 6.

They allow by far the most Corner 3s (from both corners), yet the only person to average at least one Corner 3PA has been Maya Caldwell. Guards that can drive and kick have gotten a ton of potentials, with Canada leading the team at 17 potentials despite just 26 minutes and alongside Rhyne/Allisha. The doubling on Jones Post Ups left her second in this regard at 11, which translated to 5 assists. 4 of her assists went to threes.

Griner got up to 30 minutes last game against Minnesota while producing her season-high in PPG at 22, yet she has notched 12 or more Pts in just 3/17 games (0/7 at home) if she falls under the 28 minute mark – which is likely with such a tough matchup.

Atlanta is right there as a strong paint defense, allowing just 31.8 PITP per game, yet aren’t too bad of a 3PT defense as a consequence typically as they are fine with Griner/Jones staying home on post ups.
—–

The storyline for LA is the return of Cameron Brink, who is reportedly “likely” to have a minutes restriction today but cannot imagine a scenario where she wouldn’t. Regardless, LA frontcourt of Hamby/Stevens has been strong enough where Brink likely isn’t even garnering a starting spot this season. She posted 5 blocks a game against Las Vegas last season.

Plum has faced Aces twice this season at The Michelob Ultra Arena, which served as her home for 6 seasons prior. However, she hasn’t succeeded vs Aces yet this season, losing both games off of 17 Pts (19 FGA) and 13 Pts (7 FGA). The Sparks have now won 5 straight games, including a win over The Liberty in their most recent night.

Rickea Jackson notched 30 Pts in her only meeting (the most recent one) against Las Vegas, so Plum didn’t really need to shoot a whole lot and produced 9 assists herself. This was Jackson’s career high and fueled LA’s 8 point victory.

The Sparks used a ton of handoff action against Vegas, notably seen through Hamby’s 6.5 APG, yet with the addition of Allemand in the starting lineup this action has seen an overall decrease in possessions used. Defensively, LVA has not improved against this type of action, ranking 10th, while allowing the 3rd most FGA per 40 to Guards in their L10 games.

11 starters have notched 8+ rebounds against Las Vegas in July, with 2 of them being guards (Sabrina & Allisha Gray). In these 10 games, only Fagbenle failed to cover Steven’s lines amongst frontcourt starters who played >25 minutes. Azura Stevens notched a double-double in both meetings vs Las Vegas, while Hamby notched 9 per game as well.

Rickea is defending Chelsea Gray, which left her also in great competition for these rebounds. She averaged 5.5 rebounds per game herself last season, with 7 in the only game this season. LV allows the most OREB in the league while giving up the most to guards.

Last game vs The Wings, all three of The Aces’ stars notched their highest potential count of the year:
– A’ja 13, Chelsea 16 & Young 20

A part of this was the nature of the game, as DAL is 2nd in PACE in their L10 games, yet The Sparks are right there with ’em at 3rd. In the most recent game, this trio each had 12 potentials as well.

It is time for A’ja to get back at the helm against a soft LA defense that has still been getting beat up inside, allowing Top 3 PITP and B3 against Post Ups & Putbacks. Hard to find someone on Las Vegas who has not had good history, with the Big 3 averaging:
– Jackie 30 PPG (24 FGA)
– A’ja 24 PPG (15 FGA)
– Chelsea 21.5 PPG (12 FGA)

Breanna Stewart played just 3 minutes against The Sparks on the 2nd night of Liberty’s back-to-back. This was unfortunate timing, as Brondello mentioned pregame that she’d “love to lower Stewie’s minutes. She’s one of the hardest ones. The plan is to lower all their minutes when we move forward and get all our players… our depth, we trust them”.

Stewart is joining the team for their 4 game road trip, yet “the team plans to give her time to fully recover” (x/ Madeline Kenney). Jonquel Jones is currently the key piece that is returning from a month-long ankle injury, yet did get up to 28 minutes against The Sparks. I would assume that Brondello ideally would not have ran her that much in two straight games, yet LA’s offense comes with a lot of size, which will remain true for this upcoming matchup of Dallas.

This is the first meeting between these two, despite being into the 2nd half of the year.

The Wings are 1-7 now with their new lineup that consists of a Yueru/Geiselsoder frontcourt, and have given up the third most OPP PITP in that span at 38.3. The Aces just scored 106 points against Dallas, yet scored 64 of those points from deep or the charity stripe. Dallas has given up the 2nd most OPP FGM (31.6), while playing at the fastest PACE in the league despite the objectively slower lineup. This game should be ultra fast, as The Liberty is the fastest PACE in the L30 days.

Expecting a very similar game as NYL v LAS, which was also two Top 3 PACE squads. LA just secured 37 rebounds along with 24 assists, as NYL has been a consistently poor RA unit. POAs and bigs have all thrived:
– Plum 12 RA | Allemand 16 RA | Azura/Hamby 10+ Reb
– Alyssa Thomas 21 RA | Satou 8 RA (22min)
– Boston 18 RA | McDonald 10 RA
– Gray 11 RA | Canada 14 RA

The Liberty as a team average the fewest OREB per game at just 7 per one, so whoever is expected to lead sets and crash rebounds generally can get them uncontested. DiJonai Carrington is a good candidate, and finally saw 30 minutes after she was out for over a month due to a rib contusion. With over 22 minutes, she has notched 6.8 RPG since the start of June.

McCowan notched 10 rebounds in the third quarter alone, notching her first double-double of the season. By this point last season, she had already notched 7 double-doubles. I doubt that this alone will earn her more run, as the last time she played big minutes was against PHX (9pt-10r, 22min), to which the next three games were all single digit minutes.

Sabrina Ionescu will be hounded defensively by JJ Quinerly, who isn’t a pure lockdown defender but certainly qualifies as a pest. With DiJonai Carrington in the mix as well, I would expect a lot of traps on Ionescu with The Liberty depleted.

Tina Charles last season didn’t even play a back-to-back, and the only one she did this year was just 15 minutes of action (in a close game against PHX as well). She produced just 2 points and 7 PRA in these minutes. She also was questionable yesterday against The Valks due to an illness, which could be pestering today.

However, if a minutes restriction is not in store for Charles, she has killed this Seattle team twice this season with back to back 20 point double-doubles. Subsequently, she should definitely be in store to face doubles today, yet that won’t keep her off the glass. SEA currently notches the fewest OREB in the league as a team, thus surrendering the most OPP RPG in their L10 games (39).

I am actually expecting Mabrey to sit out this game due to how long she was out with the hyperextended knee injury.

Despite The Valkyries only managing 64 points against Connecticut, it was more of a testimate to their complete depleted roster rather than any defensive improvements to The Sun’s defense. Morrow did draw the start over Nelson-Ododa last game.

Gabby Williams has notched a 20.3% usage in the first half in their L5 games, falling to 15% in the 2nd. This notably includes the last game vs WSH, where she had a 22% in the first half, then a literal 0% in 7 minutes of the 2nd due to poor shooting. It makes 1H stronger because she won’t test her shot in the second unless a quality first comes. She has notched 5, 1 and 4 FTM in the three games vs CON (100%) and 11/L15 games.

Gabby joined the rest of the Storm facilitating trio with 12 potentials per game vs CON. Wheeler had 11.5 as well, while Diggins averaged 11. Wheeler has played 15.3 MPG vs CON in their L2, along with 13+ in (at least) 5 straight games. 29/30 players to notch 13+ 1H minutes vs CON in their L10 games has also had at least 10 1H FS, no matter their usage.

Until that changes, I have no reason to not take any player at this mark. CON remains ranking B3 in DRTG, OPP 3PA, OPP FTM, OPP APG

Welcome back to a WNBA Weekend, with five games and a ton of implications. Here is the schedule:
GSV @ CON | 11:00 AM ET
IND @ CHI | 2:00 PM CT
LV @ DAL | 3:00 PM CT
PHX @ WSH | 4:00 PM ET
ATL @ MIN | 6:00 PM CT

We will start in Connecticut. The Valkyries suffered a devastating loss to their All Star Kayla Thornton, who is out for the year after a successful knee surgery. To further hinder their frontcourt depth, Monique Billings is also ruled out again due to an ankle injury. Last game, this left Janelle Salaun to lead the team in FGA at 14. This tracks, as Salaun currently boasts a team-high 27.6% usage rate when on the floor with Burton while Billings/Thornton are off.

Iliana Rupert, who was a part of French national team with Salaun, made her Valkyrie debut last game. She has experience with Nakase as they won a championship together for Las Vegas in 2022. Her connection with Salaun makes it so she isn’t really a threat to Janelle’s minutes, rather to the other limited depth in Fagbenle and Amihere.

Connecticut’s defense has allowed the most Paint Pts on the year (38.3 per game) and in their L10 games (39.4). In their L5 games alone, the leaders in PITP against them have been:
– PF Natasha Howard | 16 PITP
– PF Dearica Hamby | 15 PITP/gp
– C Ezi Magbegor | 12 PITP
– G Kelsey Plum | 11 PITP/gp
– G Kelsey Mitchell | 12 PITP

Really anyone that can slash can thrive, as CON has surrendered the most Pts to both Guards and Centers in the ten game stretch. The Sun have also ranked in the bottom three at limiting OPP APG (13th), OPP RPG (12th) and OPP 3PA (11th) in this same span – horrific defense.

Burton is another player that should post some high usage here, having complete control of the offense. Coming off an 0-7 shooting performance, which is unlikely to repeat against this soft matchup. In just 24 minutes last time these two faced, Burton notched 14 potential assists, yet somehow converted just 2 of them despite the massive Golden State victory.

Lastly, in the same on/off sample we used for Salaun, Hayes has averaged 1.35 Pts per Poss – higher than every other player outside of Rupert in her limited minutes. She was pacing for double-digit potentials herself after 27 minutes played, and defensively is in great rebound position off of Jacy Sheldon. As CON has allowed the most RPG in their L10 games, this has also come as the most rebounds to guards, where specific Sheldon defenders have thrived such as Williams with 9 & Clark with 8.

Granted, Sheldon didn’t start last game for CON, yet Allemand notched 8 rebounds off of Bria Hartley.

Mabrey returned to the Sun lineup last game after hyperextending her knee, and actually beat out her quoted minutes projection of “20-25 minutes” (played 26). She was still rusty nonetheless, shooting just 2/12 from the field. Her success is pivotal if CON wants any chance at winning this game, as The Valks have given up by far the most OPP 3PA per game on the season (27.5) and in their L10 games (29).

Typically the 3PA they surrender is not to opposing POA’s (Point-of-Attack), rather is from the player they choose to “sacrifice” in order to double inside action. Dallas got up 26 3PA last game, while Yueru and Geiselsoder combined for 8 of those attempts. The game before SEA got up 27, with Nneka notching 7 & Wheeler with 8. Mercury told the same story, with Westbeld seeing 8 and Akani supporting at 6.

Tomorrow likely sees some increased perimeter action from Lacan and Rivers, but that team is actively a revolving door in minutes.

Golden State has only been allowing that many threes due to their intent on locking down the paint; This defense has allowed the fewest PITP all season long – likely a bad story for Tina Charles; Charles notched just 9 points in her 20 minutes last meeting. However, her usage has soared to 28.3% in her last 5 games, which is 3% higher than when she won MVP over a decade ago – with 17.4 FGA per game in this span.

When Tina has seen 13+ FGA this season, she has notched 16 or more points in 14/15 games, along with all 10 games since the start of June (21.3 PPG).

IND @ CHI
No Atkins for Chicago, while Reese is battling a back injury. On Indiana end, Caitlin Clark remains out after reaggravating her groin.

Chicago without Reese is horrible, losing both games without her by 37 and 38 points a piece. This offense has been the biggest problem, failing to cross 20 points in any of the 8 quarters. Chicago has posted a sub 90 ORTG with Atkins and Reese off the court individually, yet with both off this falls further to under 80 (was 72.2 last game).

Natasha Howard has gone over 12.5 Pts in 10 straight games with >25 minutes on the court, while being 8/9 on the year when also facing a below average DRTG. Howard played 18 1H minutes last game against The Aces, and White seemingly drastically tightened the rotation as Boston, Cunningham and Mitchell all played that high of an early load as well.

In first halves with 13+ minutes played against those below average defenses, she has notched (L30 days):
– 7 Pts, 7 Reb, 1 Steal vs LVA (18.4 FP)
– 12 Pts, 7 Reb, 2 Stock vs CON (25.4 FP)
– 13 Pts, 1 Reb vs DAL (14.2 FP)
– 8 Pts, 7 RA, 1 Block vs LAS (19 FP)
– 10 Pts, 7 RA, 1 STL vs LVA (21 FP)
– 6 Pts, 11 RA, 1 STL vs DAL (21.1 FP)

You get it, and Howard has not fallen up 13 1H minutes in any game overall in this stretch.

LV @ DAL
Paige Bueckers is resting for this game – seems Dallas is starting to prioritize their 2026 draft. Meanwhile, The Aces just keep dropping games, now falling below the .500 mark after losing by 31 points to Minnesota. I begin to wonder how long The Aces can give Loyd extended run, as she shot 0-10 last game in addition to her 5 fouls. Since their championship run, the issue with Las Vegas has always been their lack of depth, yet Evans and Nye are good contenders to take her minutes.

The Aces just surrendered 109 points in regulation, which is the most points a team has let up this season. In their L5 games, the only team worse in DRTG has been Chicago, yet The Aces given up the most OPP 3PM in that span. With Bueckers out, Arike Ogunbowale has shot just 13 times per 30 minutes, which is not only lower than her season average of 14.4, but also far lower than when she was the lone star last season and shot almost 20 times per game.

Regardless of this, Arike has loved to get her shots up against Las Vegas, shooting 12, 17, 17, 13 and 23 times against them since the start of last season. Now, she faces an Aces team that gives up the most FGA to guards in their L10 games. We’re seen these figures:
– Paige 24 FGA / Quinerly 14
– Sabrina 23 FGA
– Mitchell 21 FGA/gp
– Gray 16 FGA
– Sykes 15 FGA

Can also add on Courtney Williams and her 23 points in her limited blowout minutes. Granted, Arike is posting her lowest FG% of her career this season at just 36.1%. Would argue that she also lost them the last game against Golden State. Personally, I am more intrigued by the DAL rookie duo of Aziaha James (drafted 1st round alongside NC State teammate Saniya Rivers) and JJ Quinerly.

Quinerly notched 5 steals alongside her 17 Points and 9 RA last game vs Las Vegas.

The Aces entire offense is now A’ja Wilson, who provided exactly what they needed the prior matchup with 37 Pts and 25 FGA. The Dallas double-big lineup is 1-6, and in that span have surrendered the 2nd most OPP PITP per game at 39.7. They have posted a B3 defensive rating, while surrendering the most Fastbreak Pts. All of their problems are derived from the lack of speed in this frontcourt of Yueru and Geiselsoder.

A’ja threw up 26 PITP, while Howard, Ogwumike, Boston, Thomas and Reese all notched double-digit points against Dallas in this lineup’s life. Ideally, A’ja would be supported by Jackie Young in a paint duel, yet Jackie has not been the same since her hip injury suffered after her 30 point game against Golden State. She has not scored 20 or more points in the four games since then, including just 2 points against Dallas.

Dallas has surrendered the most backcourt rebounds with this lineup as well, most recently shown by Burton’s 9 rebounds. On offense, the big duo of DAL spends a lot of their sets out on the perimeter, pulling opposing bigs into high action sets. Of course, this only limits opposing bigs from getting theirs if those two can hit their shots. Loyd, Smith and A’ja all got 8+ rebounds in the prior head-to-head.

PHX @ WSH
Phoenix is leaving this All-Star break playing every other day for 8 games straight, with The Mystics marking their third. Washington will likely be as fatigued as Phoenix is, given this is the 2nd game of their back-to-back. The hard limit remains for Sabally and Copper, both failing to cross 24 minutes in the two games thus far since their injury.

The Mystics typical defensive strategy is to force defenses inside, with high pressure on opposing guards, which has generated ultra low 3PA:
– Diggins 1 3PA | Gabby 2 3PA
– Plum 6 3PA | Allemand 1
– Plum 5 3PA | Allemand 3 | Rickea 2
– Diggins 1 3PA | Gabby 1
– Chelsea 2 3PA | Jackie 2

The top threat for Phoenix has been Sami Whitcomb, who has shot 7+ 3PA in all 6 games when playing alongside Copper/Satou/Thomas.

After Ogwumike’s 18 points, Washington continues to get beaten up inside at the expense of their high pressure. Hamby notched 25 PPG, followed by Rickea at 22 PPG, Azura at 15 PPG and Magbegor with 13.5 PPG all in Washingtons last 5 games. Alyssa Thomas, or Satou Sabally, can both succeed inside.

The Mystics are going to be playing back-to-back poor rebounding teams, coming off Seattle yesterday. The Storm allow the 2nd most OPP RPG in their L10 games, and Austin/Iriafen both notched double-digit rebounds. Now, they face The Mercury who have allowed the most in that span, along with 28.8 OPP RPG in their L5 games. The success has come from bigs:
– A’ja 18 Reb, Jones 11 Reb, Billings 9 Reb (19min), Shepard 8 Reb (17min), Griner 8 Reb (25min)

Citron has felt like she has had increased on-ball usage lately, especially as she has averaged 5 assists over her last 3 games, which is double her season average. She had 5 potentials to Austin alone last game, ending the game at 8 potentials after 10 and 9 the game before.

ATL @ MIN
The Lynx are 14-0 at home this season, and they have another chance to extend this streak against The Dream. At home this season, they have an astounding DRTG of 90.2. Here, they have allowed the fewest fastbreak points (7.1), free throw attempts (14.7) and generated the most opponent turnovers (16.2).

Atlanta has been beaten by PnR all season long, ranking 9th against the Roller and 13th against the Ball Handler. Luckily for Minnesota, their duo of Williams and Collier run the PnR at the highest rate in the entire league. When facing The Lynx, ATL had a clear choice of either defending Williams midrange (16 FGA) or dropping to defend Collier inside – typically choosing the latter. However, Collier could still thrive through the ‘Pick-and-Pop’, where she notched 6 3PA while just 3 of her 18 total FGA were directly at the rim.

Williams ended this game with 14 potential assists, and has o20.5 PA in 11/12 games this season with 12+ FGA and against a non-T4 PnR Handler defense.

We have three games hosted by bottom 500 teams:
LVA @ IND | 6:00 PM CT
LAS @ CON | 5:00 PM ET
SEA @ CHI | 7:30 PM CT

The Fever just played, and lost, back to back games against the Liberty – split by the All-Star game. Both Indiana and their opponent, Las Vegas, have been beaten by the same thing: Guards. In their L10 games, each of these squads have surrendered Top 3 opposing guard FGA. The Aces have been by far the worst in this regard, allowing 44.3 OPP Guard FGA per game, which continued on from The Dream as Gray and Canada combined for 29 FGA. Other success has been Paige notching 23 FGA, Sabrina with 23, Mitchell with 18 and Sykes with 15 in this span; This is pretty much all of the high volume guards, as the other teams to face them were CON (x2), GSV and PHX.

Kelsey Mitchell has notched 20+ Pts in 5 straight meetings against Las Vegas, while sinking 3+ 3PM in every meeting since the start of last season. Aari McDonald has also had The Aces’ number, with 16 & 23 points last season while being on The Sparks. Last game, McDonald also commanded control of the offense with 6 assists off of 13 potentials – her highest count since she faced Las Vegas

On Aces’ side we’ve seen Jackie Young have potentially her lowest point prop (13.5) since May, yet her on-ball usage hasn’t actually changed much. Young has now lead the team in potential assists in three straight games, and is over her 17.5 PA mark in 11/14 games with 28+ minutes.

Can’t talk about these two without mentioning A’ja Wilson, who has taken complete command of the offense similar to her unanimous 2024 MVP run. A’ja has averaged 31.7 PPG across her last 3 games, along with covering this in 5/6 total meetings since start of last season. Makes sense, as A’ja is currently the best Post Up player in the league, where Indiana is allowing the most points to this season.

The Fever did like using Boston to bring A’ja in the high Pick-and-Roll, which generated super low rebound marks for A’ja with just 5 per contest. Boston being caught up also freed up Natasha Howard to operate inside.

Our next game is Sparks against Connecticut, which features the two worst rated defenses in July. The Sun’s struggles have been their interior defense, giving up 42 PITP per game this month. The leaders in PITP this month against CON (5 GP) have been:
– (PF) Natasha Howard (16 PITP, 18 Pts)
– (SF) Rickea Jackson (16 PITP, 19 Pts) | (PF) Hamby (14 PITP, 17 Pts)
– (SG) Kelsey Mitchell (12 PITP, 20 Pts)
– (C) Magbegor (11 PITP, 13.5 PPG) | (SF) Williams (11 PITP, 19.5 PPG)

The best individual team was The Sparks, who had 50 PITP right before the ASB. Spotlight is on Rickea Jackson, whose been on a scoring tear in her last 5 games this month, producing 18.4 PPG after back-to-back 20 point games against Washington. Jackson has averaged 8 PITP per game – 2nd most on the team behind Hamby at 12.9. So far, players that average >6 PITP per game are 13-3 to their or Rickea’s line in their last 5 matchups (they all scored double digits).

Being bad at everything, which is the nature of this Connecticut team, includes being poor at rebounding. Because Tina Charles has commanded so much of the shot volume, a large chunk of this rebounding is going to opposing guards (23.8, 13th). Courtney Williams with 9 and Caitlin Clark with 8 have led this group, which marks two Sheldon defenders. This was Plum last game, who secured just 1 rebound which came in the first three minutes, and may defer too many chances to back.

Because of the poor rim protection, these two teams also allow the highest opposing FG% – being the only two to give up >46%. CON has actually given up the lowest 3P%, which just reinforces how bad they are inside, yet The Sparks have surrendered the 2nd highest shooting percentage from deep at 36%.

The CON offense saw the best game from Saniya Rivers all season with a career-high 20 points along with 38.7 fantasy points. Her usage may thin a bit here, as Mabrey is set to return after hyperextending her knee, yet likely to play on a heavy minutes restriction. The Sparks were adamant on doubling Tina Charles on her Post Up attempts, which led to her low volume despite the good minutes against this soft defense.

I’m shocked this Sparks scheme did not result in more success from Olivia Nelson-Ododa, as the non-doubled big option. However, Morrow did have 11 shots (10 Pts) in her 22 minutes of action, so likely just a hot hand situation. One of these two will need to generate inside action if Connecticut is looking to keep this game close.

Seattle takes on Chicago, who will remain home throughout the weekend. Chicago has had a tough stretch recently, facing Minnesota in 3 of their last 4 games, along with losing their last 2 by 20+ Pts. The notable factor was Ariel Atkins being out for the latter two do to a foot injury. She already is ruled out for this game against Seattle.

The Seattle Storm have given up the most rebounds to opposing starters in their L10 games at 29.7, notably as they are strong enough offensively to generate high opposing starter minutes. Almost all of this action is at the rim, mostly due to the low usage Ezi Magbegor. The Wings just notched 48 rebounds, with Yueru securing 10 in just 22 minutes, while The Mystics got 36 themselves behind a combined 17 from Austin/Iriafen.

These two teams haven’t met yet this season, yet it is going to be a tough day for Seattle if they can’t keep Reese and Cardoso off the glass. Granted, the big duo can also thrive through traditional methods, as SEA is also allowing the 2nd most OPP PITP in their L10 games. Reese’s primary passing target this season has been her fellow big in Cardoso, who has shot just 3/11 and 4/12 in Chicago’s last two games.

Skylar Diggins was out last game due to personal reasons, yet is not on the injury report today. Team is hopeful for her return. The Storm just lost to Dallas by 24 points without her, which makes sense given their season on/off splits:
– With Diggins ON: 105.6 ORTG, 96.1 DRTG, 9.5 NETRTG (best)
– With Diggins OFF: 82.1 ORTG, 103.2 DRTG, -21.2 NETRTG (worst)

Pretty astonishing how much of an X-Factor she is on both ends of the floor, due to both IQ and intensity. Her return would be crucial, as you typically have the most success attacking Chicago from the perimeter, to avoid going through their massive frontcourt. CHI has ranked in the bottom 3 at limiting both OPP 3PA and OPP APG.

Williams notched 8 assists despite the massive loss vs Dallas in the absence of Diggins, and could have another great day from drive-and-kick play.

Griner returns to Phoenix, and Copper said, “I’m excited for the X-Factor to go out there and give her that standing ovation she deserves.”

This is the first time in her 13 season career where she has played for a team that wasn’t Phoenix, and would love for her to get good run today. She noted that she can “feel the tears already”. Despite the back to back for Atlanta, ideally Griner gets some good run here. Griner has o16.5 PR in 9/12 games with 24+ minutes, yet has never missed this line if she runs >26 (7/7). Other tall bigs have thrived:
– Shepard 16 PR in 17min, 15 PR in 11min / Smith 16 PR in 22min
– Billings 18 PR in 19min
– McCowan 19 PR in 22min
– Yueru 23 PR in 22min

Satou and Copper return for Phoenix today after missing four straight games and the All Star Game. Tibbetts noted yesterday, “I think if you would have asked them, they would have played a week ago… It’s a day-to-day thing. They had a good day today, and it’s kind of like, how do they respond?”

Am unsure if either will be on minutes limit upon their return. Lexi Held also has been set active to play after she suffered a collapsed lung over a month ago, yet that will definitely come with sparse minutes as she still was limited in practice.

Phoenix’s defense was absolutely unreal in that 4 game stretch without Satou/Copper, having the 3rd best DRTG. In these games, they allowed the fewest PITP and the 2nd fewest Pts off TOV. This defense will see a slight hit in productivity with Monique Akoa Makani out (concussion). However the one thing they cannot control is their lack of size, as they have surrendered 40 OPP RPG in this same span (13th), notably to frontcourt.

The Dream are on the second leg of their back-to-back, with Allisha Gray notably playing through a minor illness yesterday in Atlanta’s 15 point loss.

Jordin Canada has complete command of this offense, which was already trending towards being true (from a facilitation standpoint) before, yet now even more so. She notched 21 Potentials against Vegas, the second highest mark of the season – which was 22 by Canada three games prior. Cloud is the only backcourt player to notch 7+ Ast against Phoenix in their L15 games.

The Dream uses their large frontcourt to run high sets in their PnR game, typically through Brionna Jones while Griner stays on block, thus allowing the 2nd most starting guard rebounds in their L10 games.

Defensively the Dream’s biggest threat has always been Pullup shooters due to the deep drop coverage played by their bigs. Would be a great spot for Kahleah Copper (PR) if you can rely on minutes, as ATL surrenders the most points to both PnR Ball Handlers along with Handoffs (which AT loves).

This season, handoffs have made up a fifth of Copper’s total scoring production, compared to just 5% last season when she didn’t have Thomas as a teammate. Copper notched 19 PR vs CHI (12th vs Handoffs) in 23min, 21 vs LV (10th) and then 38 vs DAL (11th).

Subsequently, Alyssa Thomas has averaged 11.3 APG against these bottom 4 handoff defenses.