Category: Betting

Welcome to “NFL Blitz,” where we give you in-depth analysis on every game, every week! We’re not here to pick sides – we’re here to explore the “why” behind each matchup. Our goal is to arm you with the knowledge to make your own informed choices:

• Why each team could cover the spread – uncover key factors that favor both sides.
• Why the game could go over or under – we dive into the stats, matchups, and situations that point to both outcomes.

We give you the “what ifs” so you understand the paths each game could take. No hot takes or hype, just sharp analysis to help you see both sides and make educated decisions. Whether you’re betting, setting up fantasy lineups, or just following the action, this weekly article is the ultimate guide to the NFL week ahead.

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Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

Why the Bears will cover:

• If one of the injured tackles (Darnell Wright or Braxton Jones) returns, Caleb Williams will have much better protection, giving him more time to find his receivers and reduce the sacks taken.
• D’Andre Swift could take advantage of Green Bay’s below-average run defense, helping Chicago control the game on the ground and alleviate pressure off Williams.

Why the Packers will cover:

• Jordan Love should be close to 100% after the bye week, allowing him to capitalize on the Bears’ struggles to stop the run with Josh Jacobs gaining consistent yardage.
• Green Bay’s pass rush, which generates pressure without heavy blitzing, could overwhelm a still-injured Bears offensive line, especially if Chicago’s tackles are sidelined.

Why the game will go over:

• With both teams likely to establish their ground games, this could open up play-action opportunities, leading to big plays and quick scores.
• Green Bay’s offense will be more efficient with Love healthy and Chicago’s defense showing vulnerabilities against the run, allowing the Packers to sustain drives and put up points.

Why the game will go under:

• If Chicago’s offensive line struggles persist, Caleb Williams could face relentless pressure, resulting in stalled drives and limited offensive production.
• Both teams may lean heavily on the run game, leading to longer, clock-draining drives and fewer possessions overall, keeping the score lower.

New Orleans Saints vs Cleveland Browns

Why the Saints will cover:

• The Saints’ defense still ranks in the top half of the league in EPA against the pass, which could challenge Jameis Winston if he’s forced into passing situations.
• Alvin Kamara remains a versatile threat who can impact the game through short passes and screens, potentially exploiting Cleveland’s aggressive pass rush.

Why the Browns will cover:

• The Browns have had two weeks to prepare and recover, especially Nick Chubb, who faces a Saints defense that struggles against the run.
• Cleveland’s defensive front, led by Myles Garrett, should dominate New Orleans’ weakened offensive line, disrupting Derek Carr’s timing and limiting the Saints’ passing attack.

Why the game will go over:

• The Browns’ run game, led by a healthier Nick Chubb, should have explosive plays against New Orleans’ porous run defense, while Winston’s aggressive style could lead to quick scores on both sides.
• With both teams dealing with injuries in their secondaries, there may be opportunities for big passing plays, especially if Cleveland’s receivers can exploit mismatches.

Why the game will go under:

• Both teams will likely lean on the run game, which could lead to longer, clock-draining drives, especially if the Browns establish an early lead.
• New Orleans’ offensive line struggles, combined with Cleveland’s pass rush, may limit scoring opportunities for the Saints, leading to a lower-scoring game.

Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots

Why the Rams will cover:

• The Rams’ offense, led by Matthew Stafford, is set to bounce back after a mistake-filled game. Sean McVay has a strong track record of making quick adjustments, especially off a loss.
• The Rams’ defense generates the highest pressure rate in the league, which should force rookie QB Drake Maye into mistakes behind New England’s shaky offensive line.

Why the Patriots will cover:

• If the Rams continue to commit turnovers and penalties, the Patriots could capitalize on those mistakes as they did against the Bears.
• With the Rams dealing with offensive line injuries, New England’s defense, which surprised last week with nine sacks, might find ways to disrupt Stafford.

Why the game will go over:

• Both offenses can take advantage of the opposing defenses’ weaknesses: the Rams can exploit the Patriots’ run defense, while the Patriots might benefit from short fields if the Rams make more mistakes.
• Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams have favorable matchups that could lead to big gains and quick scores, especially if the Rams’ offense is firing on all cylinders.

Why the game will go under:

• The Patriots may struggle to move the ball against the Rams’ strong pass rush, especially with rookie QB Maye likely facing constant pressure.
• The Rams’ focus on establishing the run with Kyren Williams could lead to longer, clock-draining drives, especially if they get an early lead and look to control the game tempo.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Why the Ravens will cover:

• Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry present a dynamic duo that can challenge even the stoutest defenses. While Pittsburgh has done well containing Jackson historically, the addition of Henry provides a new dimension that the Steelers may struggle to stop.
• The Ravens’ offense is ranked No. 1 in the NFL, with Jackson playing at an MVP-caliber level this season. Despite past struggles against Pittsburgh, their explosive playmakers could break through if they can limit turnovers.

Why the Steelers will cover:

• The Steelers have a game plan that has consistently worked against Lamar Jackson. With fast edge defenders, they’ve held Jackson to under 24 points in each of their past five meetings.
• Russell Wilson’s resurgence has added a new dynamic to the Steelers’ offense. Baltimore’s weak secondary (ranked 30th in adjusted defensive EPA) is vulnerable to deep throws, and Wilson’s “moon balls” could lead to big plays downfield.

Why the game will go over:

• Both offenses are capable of explosive plays. The Ravens have the league’s top-ranked offense, while the Steelers, with Wilson’s improved passing, can exploit Baltimore’s weak secondary.
• The Steelers have given up points to dynamic offenses, and with Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson in the backfield, the Ravens could score quickly if they catch the Steelers off guard.

Why the game will go under:

• Both teams have strong defensive fronts that can control the game, leading to fewer explosive plays and long, drawn-out drives.
• The Steelers’ plan to contain Lamar Jackson has historically worked, with most matchups between these teams resulting in low-scoring affairs. Additionally, Pittsburgh’s offense might struggle if Baltimore can generate consistent pressure on Wilson.

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders

Why the Dolphins will cover:

• Tua Tagovailoa is set up for a bounce-back game against a Raiders defense that ranks 29th in defensive EPA. After struggling against tougher defenses like the Bills and Rams, Miami’s offense should have more room to operate.
• De’Von Achane is poised to exploit the Raiders’ weakness against pass-catching running backs, adding an explosive element that can turn short gains into big plays.

Why the Raiders will cover:

• Miami’s defense, while showing improvement last week, is still ranked 22nd in adjusted defensive EPA. If the Dolphins’ cornerbacks remain sidelined, Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew may have a chance to exploit the weakened secondary.
• The Dolphins have struggled to put away games lately, and the Raiders could find themselves in a position to secure a back-door cover, especially if they get the ball in the fourth quarter against a tired Miami defense.

Why the game will go over:

• Miami’s offense has been stifled by top-tier defenses recently but should find plenty of success against a porous Raiders secondary. Expect Tagovailoa, Hill, and Achane to put up big numbers against a defense that struggles to stop playmakers.
• Las Vegas may find success in the passing game late, particularly if Miami’s cornerbacks are limited or out. The Raiders could add points in garbage time to push the total over.

Why the game will go under:

• Both teams could struggle with consistency on offense due to quarterback play. Tagovailoa hasn’t looked sharp since his concussion, while the Raiders’ quarterback carousel has been far from effective.
• Miami’s defensive resurgence, fueled by Zach Sieler, could limit the Raiders’ ability to score, while the Dolphins may opt to control the clock with their running game if they get a lead, resulting in a lower-scoring affair.

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Why the Lions will cover:

• Jared Goff should rebound against a Jacksonville defense ranked 28th in EPA. The Jaguars’ lack of a pass rush (third-worst in pressure rate) will allow Goff plenty of time in the pocket to connect with his weapons.
• With the Jaguars struggling to defend pass-catching running backs, Jahmyr Gibbs could have a big game exploiting this weakness, especially in the absence of Sam LaPorta.

Why the Jaguars will cover:

• Despite their offensive struggles, the Jaguars have been resilient in keeping games close, evidenced by their miraculous cover last week despite being outplayed statistically.
• The Lions may experience a slight letdown after an emotional comeback win against Houston, possibly leaving an opening for Jacksonville to sneak in a back-door cover.

Why the game will go over:

• Detroit’s offense, with Goff looking to bounce back from a rough outing, could exploit Jacksonville’s weak pass defense. Expect the Lions to put up points quickly, especially with Gibbs and St. Brown leading the way.
• The Jaguars, while limited offensively, may be able to capitalize on garbage-time opportunities, especially if Detroit’s defense softens up with a big lead.

Why the game will go under:

• Jacksonville’s offense, led by a struggling Mac Jones, may not be able to put up significant points against a Lions defense that shut out the Texans in the second half last week.
• Detroit could control the game on the ground with Gibbs, allowing them to run down the clock, especially if they get an early lead.

Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans

Why the Vikings will cover:

• The Titans’ secondary is banged up, likely missing both starting cornerbacks. This will allow Sam Darnold to connect with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, who have great matchups.
• Tennessee struggles to defend receiving backs, which means Aaron Jones could have a big day catching passes out of the backfield, giving Darnold safer, high-percentage throws.

Why the Titans will cover:

• Minnesota’s offense has been turnover-prone, as evidenced by Darnold’s three red-zone interceptions last week. If Darnold continues to struggle with ball security, the Titans could capitalize on short fields.
• The Vikings’ aggressive blitzing defense could leave them vulnerable to big plays if Levis manages to find his rhythm against the pressure.

Why the game will go over:

• With both teams having significant defensive weaknesses, the Vikings’ potent passing attack could exploit Tennessee’s depleted secondary, while the Titans may be able to hit on a few explosive plays if Minnesota’s blitzing scheme backfires.
• Darnold will be eager to redeem himself after last week’s poor showing, which could lead to more aggressive play-calling and higher scoring drives.

Why the game will go under:

• Minnesota’s defense will pressure Will Levis relentlessly, forcing turnovers and stalling Tennessee’s drives, keeping the overall score low.
• Both teams have struggled with offensive consistency, especially in the red zone, which could lead to more field goals than touchdowns.

New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts

Why the Jets will cover:

• Aaron Rodgers is likely to have more time in the pocket against the Colts, who rarely blitz. This will allow him to find his receivers downfield, especially after struggling against the Cardinals’ unexpected blitz packages.
• The Jets’ running game could excel against the Colts’ weak rush defense, with Breece Hall primed for a big day to relieve pressure off Rodgers.

Why the Colts will cover:

• Jonathan Taylor has a favorable matchup against the Jets’ weak run defense, allowing the Colts to control the game on the ground and limit Joe Flacco’s exposure to mistakes.
• Anthony Richardson’s mobility can exploit the Jets’ defense, which struggles against mobile quarterbacks, potentially leading to big gains on the ground.

Why the game will go over:

• Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities, particularly against the run, which could lead to big plays and sustained drives, increasing the score.
• With both Rodgers and Richardson eager to rebound from poor performances, expect aggressive play-calling to push the pace.

Why the game will go under:

• The Jets’ offensive struggles could continue, especially if Rodgers remains reliant on checkdowns under pressure, limiting their scoring potential.
• The Colts’ passing attack is shaky with Flacco or Richardson, and if the Jets’ secondary performs up to their capabilities, it could be a low-scoring defensive battle focused on running the ball.

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San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

Why the 49ers will cover:

• Christian McCaffrey is set to handle a larger workload in his second game back and faces a porous Seahawks run defense.
• Brock Purdy has already had success against Seattle’s defense, and Deebo Samuel always plays exceptionally well against the Seahawks.

Why the Seahawks will cover:

• Seattle is coming off a bye, which gives them extra preparation time, especially for divisional rematches like this.
• The 49ers’ red zone inefficiencies, as seen last week, could prevent them from pulling away if they settle for field goals instead of touchdowns.

Why the game will go over:

• San Francisco’s offense should be able to move the ball effectively with McCaffrey, Samuel, and Kittle, creating multiple scoring opportunities.
• Seattle will likely find success with quick passes to their secondary options like Tyler Lockett and Kenneth Walker as a receiving back, exploiting San Francisco’s weaker coverage areas.

Why the game will go under:

• The 49ers’ red zone struggles could limit their scoring to field goals instead of touchdowns, keeping the score lower than expected.
• Seattle’s offense might struggle against San Francisco’s stout defense, particularly if Kenneth Walker is limited on the ground and D.K. Metcalf is contained.

Denver Broncos vs Atlanta Falcons

Why the Broncos will cover:

• Bo Nix will have ample time in the pocket against Atlanta’s second-worst pressure rate, allowing him to connect with Courtland Sutton for big plays.
• The Falcons’ defense has struggled to contain No. 1 receivers and tight ends, which could open up the passing game for Denver, especially with Nix coming off a confidence-boosting game-winning drive (even if the field goal was blocked).

Why the Falcons will cover:

• Denver’s defense is overrated in terms of defensive EPA, ranking only 14th, which the Falcons can exploit, especially with Kyle Pitts working the middle of the field.
• Bijan Robinson should find success against a Denver defense that was recently gashed by Derrick Henry, giving Atlanta the ability to control the game on the ground.

Why the game will go over:

• Both offenses have favorable matchups: Denver’s passing game can take advantage of Atlanta’s weak pass rush, while the Falcons can exploit the Broncos’ struggles in the middle of the field with Kyle Pitts.
• The Broncos’ recent switch at running back could create more explosive plays, while the Falcons’ offense, led by Robinson and Pitts, can put up points against Denver’s vulnerable defense.

Why the game will go under:

• Both teams have been inconsistent on offense, with Denver’s running game change potentially slowing their offensive rhythm and the Falcons being overly reliant on Pitts and Robinson.
• Denver’s solid coverage with Patrick Surtain II on Drake London and Atlanta’s ability to limit the run could lead to longer drives and fewer explosive plays, keeping the score lower.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Why the Chiefs will cover:

• Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce have been in sync lately, with Kelce benefiting from increased targets after Rashee Rice’s injury. Kelce can exploit a Bills defense that has recently struggled against tight ends.
• Buffalo’s injury issues on offense and defense could limit their effectiveness, and the Chiefs’ stout defense could take advantage of a weakened Bills receiving corps and ground game.

Why the Bills will cover:

• The Bills’ defense ranks fourth in EPA and is well-equipped to disrupt Kansas City’s offense, especially with the return of key players, which will make it tough for Mahomes to replicate last week’s success.
• Josh Allen’s ability to scramble and target Dalton Kincaid against the Chiefs’ weakness to tight ends provides a solid path to offensive production, helping the Bills control the clock and potentially outlast Kansas City.

Why the game will go over:

• Both offenses feature elite playmakers in Mahomes and Allen, who are capable of explosive plays. The Chiefs and Bills each have mismatches they can exploit, with Kelce and Kincaid having strong matchups.
• Kansas City’s recent defensive lapses against certain types of receivers and tight ends could open the door for Allen to post big numbers, while Mahomes can take advantage of a Buffalo secondary that has shown vulnerability due to injuries.

Why the game will go under:

• Both defenses excel in limiting key areas of their opponents’ strengths: Buffalo can contain outside receivers, and Kansas City is adept at restricting running games and No. 1 receivers, which could reduce big-play opportunities.
• With Buffalo’s run defense and Kansas City’s preference for controlling time of possession, there’s a chance this game could be a slower-paced, grind-it-out matchup rather than an offensive shootout.

Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers

Why the Bengals will cover:

• Joe Burrow thrives in bounce-back situations and tends to perform well following a loss. This urgency is even higher here with Cincinnati sitting at 4-7.
• Despite the Chargers’ defensive prowess, Ja’Marr Chase has a favorable matchup against a secondary that has struggled against No. 1 receivers lately. If Chase Brown can establish a decent run game, it’ll help keep the Chargers’ edge rushers at bay.

Why the Chargers will cover:

• The Chargers’ defense ranks second in defensive EPA, with a strong pass rush that can disrupt Burrow, especially if the Bengals are without left tackle Orlando Brown.
• Cincinnati’s defense is struggling, particularly against the run and deep passes, which aligns perfectly with the Chargers’ offensive strengths. J.K. Dobbins and Justin Herbert should be able to exploit these weaknesses.

Why the game will go over:

• Both offenses have the firepower to put up points, and the Bengals are coming off a pair of high-scoring shootouts against Baltimore. With both teams facing defensive weaknesses (Cincinnati’s poor run defense and the Chargers’ vulnerability to big plays), a high total seems likely.
• The Chargers’ receiving corps is fully healthy, with Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey available, which should allow Herbert to connect on deep shots against Cincinnati’s shaky secondary.

Why the game will go under:

• The Chargers’ defense is capable of putting significant pressure on Burrow, which could limit the Bengals’ offensive efficiency, especially if Orlando Brown is sidelined.
• Both teams may look to control the game on the ground, with J.K. Dobbins for the Chargers and Chase Brown for the Bengals, which could lead to longer drives and fewer possessions, keeping the total lower.

Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys

Why the Texans will cover:

• With Nico Collins returning, the Texans’ offense should be revitalized, giving C.J. Stroud a reliable target to pair with Tank Dell. This should help Stroud move the chains against a Dallas defense that has struggled against the run.
• Houston’s defense is top-10 in adjusted EPA and excels at pressuring opposing quarterbacks. The Cowboys, with either Cooper Rush or Trey Lance under center, will face a difficult time moving the ball, especially with limited receiving threats and poor pass protection.

Why the Cowboys will cover:

• The Texans are weakest against the run, and if Dallas can establish a ground game with Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott, they may be able to control the clock and keep Stroud off the field.
• Cooper Rush has shown in the past that he can manage games efficiently, and if he limits mistakes and avoids turnovers, the Cowboys’ defense might be able to keep this game closer than expected.

Why the game will go over:

• With Collins returning, the Texans’ passing attack should see a boost, allowing them to exploit Dallas’ vulnerable pass defense, especially on play-action setups from early down runs with Joe Mixon.
• Houston’s defensive strength is pressuring the quarterback, but if Dallas can find some success with quick passes or screens, they might generate enough scoring drives to contribute to a higher total.

Why the game will go under:

• Dallas is limited offensively without Dak Prescott and may struggle to generate any explosive plays. The Texans’ defense should be able to shut down an already shaky Cowboys offense led by a backup quarterback.
• The Texans, despite Collins’ return, may opt for a more conservative game plan with a focus on the run game to control the clock and limit mistakes after their recent losses.

Welcome to the NFL Week 11 Newsletter! Each week, we’ll provide you with valuable insights, covering key trends, stats, and in-depth analysis of game totals, along with detailed write-ups on our picks. Last week, our picks went 2-1, which brings our season record on released picks to 15-14-2.

 
NFL Week 11 Newsletter Table of Contents:

• I. Team Trends
• II. Totals Analysis
• III. Double-Digit Favorites
• IV. Bye Weeks Stats and Trends
• V. Fading home teams off OT win
• VI. Baller System: Road favorites off a loss as a home favorite
• VII. Baller System: Fade home favorites off a loss
• Write-ups and picks

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I. NFL Week 11 Newsletter – Team Trends

These aren’t always actionable trends to base a play off, but they highlight interesting tendencies to note that may be telling:

• Chargers: 2-12 O/U in L14 games as favorites
• Chargers: held opponents 1H Team Total 0-9 O/U this season.
• Bengals: 5-0 ATS on the road this season.
• Dolphins: 0-9 1H Team Total O/U this season.
• Dolphins: 0-5 ATS in L5 games at home.
• Texans: 9-1 1H ATS this season.
• Patriots: 2-11-2 ATS in L15 home games.
• Browns: 1-8 Team Total O/U this season.
• Lions: 7-2 1H and full game ATS this season.
• Ravens: 9-1 O/U this season
• Cowboys: 2-11 ATS in L13 games as underdogs.
• Cowboys: 0-6 ATS in L6 home games.
  

Not active this week:

• Seahawks: 1-6-1 ATS in L8 games as favorites.
• Titans: 2-10 ATS in L12 road games.
• Chargers: 1-7-1 ATS in L9 games as underdogs.
• Panthers: 8-0-1 1H O/U this season.
• Lions: 16-4 ATS in L20 road games.
• Bears: 0-7 O/U in L7 road games.
• Commanders: 5-0 ATS as favorites and 4-0 ATS at home this season.
  
  

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II. NFL Week 11 Newsletter – Totals Analysis

Week 10 brought another dip in NFL scoring, with games averaging 40.7 points, below the season average of 44.9. The week leaned heavily toward unders, finishing 9-4-1, with the median points per game settling at 39. This marks a cooling off after a more high-scoring stretch earlier in the season. Overall, the season’s totals now stand at 76-74-3 to the over, showing a trend toward normalization.

Defenses are adjusting, and external factors like weather and playoff stakes will continue to impact scoring. As the season progresses, betting strategies around totals may need to evolve. Sharp bettors will look for value in under opportunities, especially with rising market expectations for overs.

Key considerations for targeting unders include:

• Late-season divisional rematches: Familiarity between teams can slow scoring.
• Playoff implications: Tighter, more cautious gameplay may emerge.
• Weather impacts: Conditions in outdoor stadiums may favor lower scores.

Keep these factors in mind as you adapt to shifting trends and hunt for edges in the market.

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III. Double Digit Favorites

When it comes to betting on the NFL, taking a double-digit favorite can feel risky, especially with the potential for backdoor covers and unpredictable late-game scoring. However, data shows that large spreads are more favorable to bettors than one might expect. Since the 2015 season, favorites with spreads of 10 or more points have covered at an impressive 56.2% clip, going 146-114-10 ATS.

Notably, success rates increase as the line grows larger.

Lines of 14 points or greater: Favorites have gone 44-29-4 ATS (60.3%) since 2015.
Lines of 17 points or greater: These heavy favorites have covered 73.3% of the time, going 11-4 ATS.

This season, double-digit favorites have continued the trend, covering 4 out of 5 times, proving that even as betting markets adjust, the opportunity remains for these high-spread games. While no such line is active this week, this trend is worth keeping in mind for when those big numbers pop up again.

Betting big favorites might seem daunting, but history suggests they have a strong chance of rewarding bold bettors.

This is active to play on the Lions -13.5 this week against the Jaguars.

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IV. Bye Weeks Stats and Trends

Favorites going into a bye week did well ATS. They are 31-10 ATS since the beginning of the 2022 season. This has gone 6-2 ATS this season.  These teams play with confidence as they are headed in a much-needed break. This is active on the Bills and Jets in Week 11.

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V. Fading home teams off an OT win

One of the most reliable betting systems over the past decade has been fading home teams coming off an overtime win. Since 2011, betting against home teams in this situation has proven profitable with an impressive 54-31-4 record (62.7% ATS). The reasoning behind this trend is straightforward: teams coming off an OT victory often enter the next week fatigued, both physically and mentally, especially if they’re at home, where home-field familiarity might not offset the premium you pay.

This trend has gone 3-1-1 ATS this season, and while there are no active plays this week, it will be active to fade the Panthers next week off their bye week.

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VI. Baller System: Road favorites after a loss as a home favorite

Since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a strong 50-21-4 ATS record. This system has gone 6-2 ATS this season. There are no active games this week, but one we always keep our eye on.

Teams that suffer an unexpected home loss as a favorite often respond with a bounce-back performance in their next outing. The fact that they are favored on the road following such a setback suggests confidence from oddsmakers, signaling potential for a solid rebound.

This is active on the Rams -4.5 this week.

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VII. Baller System: Fading Home Favorites off a Loss

Since the 2015 season, fading home favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win has gone 159-107-3 ATS (59.8%).

By fading home favorites coming off a loss, the system capitalizes on momentum favoring the road underdog. After a loss, home favorites may feel increased pressure to perform, which can lead to mistakes or overestimation by the market. Conversely, their opponents—coming off a win—often carry a morale boost and are less likely to be weighed down by expectations. This psychological edge can allow road underdogs to cover the spread more effectively than anticipated.

There are no active games this week, so we will keep our eye out for next week.

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NFL Week 11 Newsletter – Breakdowns

Los Angeles Rams @ New England Patriots

The Los Angeles Rams head into this week’s matchup against the New England Patriots with a fully healthy roster, featuring star receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Both players now have several games under their belts to shake off the rust and gain some rhythm.

The Rams are coming off a disappointing home loss to the Patriots, a result that sets up a potential bounce-back scenario. On the other hand, New England enters this game riding high after an upset victory over the Bears as underdogs. This creates an intriguing dynamic: a Rams team looking to rebound versus a Patriots squad vulnerable to a letdown.

Historically, the situation heavily favors Los Angeles. As mentioned above, since the 2018 season, road favorites of 2.5 points or more, coming off a loss as home favorites, have posted a remarkable 50-21-4 ATS record.

Another point of concern for the Patriots is their inability to perform at home. Over their last 15 games in Foxborough, they’ve gone a dismal 2-11-2 ATS.

The oddsmakers’ decision to favor the Rams on the road, despite their recent setback, reflects confidence in their ability to respond. With all these factors at play, the Rams seem poised to get back on track and cover the spread.

Pick: Rams -4.5

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions have been a model of consistency this season, holding a stellar 7-2 ATS record in both first halves and full games. This week, they face a Jacksonville Jaguars team missing Trevor Lawrence, whose absence amplifies the Lions’ advantage.

The Jaguars’ defense ranks second to last in Defensive DVOA, setting up Jared Goff for a potential bounce-back performance after his uncharacteristic five-interception outing. Adding to the Lions’ edge, we have a Baller System active: backing a favorite off a game where they were favored but committed two or more turnovers. These factors point to a dominant showing for Detroit.

Historically, double-digit favorites have proven profitable, covering at a 56.2% rate (146-114-10 ATS) since 2015, with success increasing as spreads grow larger. Even this season, double-digit favorites have maintained their edge, covering 4 out of 5 times.

At -13.5, the Lions’ consistency and the depleted Jaguars roster make them a compelling play. Backing heavy favorites can seem daunting, but the numbers suggest there’s often a reward for taking the leap.

Pick: Lions -13.5 (up to -14)

Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins

This matchup features challenging situational spots for both teams. The Raiders are traveling cross-country and may already have their sights set on a divisional clash with the Broncos next week. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are also in a potential lookahead scenario, preparing for their own divisional game against the Patriots, and they’re coming off shorter rest after playing on Monday Night Football.

The potential absence of Tyreek Hill further complicates Miami’s offense, removing a key playmaker and potentially slowing down their normally explosive scoring.

Additionally, two of our favorite Baller Systems are active on the under for this game. These align with the broader trend of unders hitting frequently this season, particularly in games where fatigue or situational distractions play a role.

With a total set at 44, and the combination of unfavorable setups for both teams, this game shapes up as a strong play for the under.

Pick: Under 44

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