Category: Betting

Three games for Tuesday, which are:
GSV @ ATL | 6:30 CT
CHI @ WSH | 5:30 ET
LV @ LAS | 7:00 PT

Will start in DC, where we have good news for Chicago with Angel Reese probable to return. Atkins remains out. Last game vs Indiana, Rachel Banham dropped 26 Pts, which was just 3 points away from her career high.

The Mystics typical defensive strategy is to force defenses inside, which is really great for this Chicago offense that is dependent on their frontcourt of Reese/Cardoso. They have done so as a biproduct of high pressure on opposing guards, which has generated ultra low 3PA:
– Diggins 1 3PA | Gabby 2 3PA
– Plum 6 3PA | Allemand 1
– Plum 5 3PA | Allemand 3 | Rickea 2
– Diggins 1 3PA | Gabby 1
– Chelsea 2 3PA | Jackie 2
– Copper 3 3PA | Whitcomb 4 3PA

Inside, both of AT and Sabally did as expected, producing 27 and 15 points respectively. Washington continues to get beaten up inside at the expense of their high pressure. Ogwumike notched 18, Hamby notched 25 PPG, followed by Rickea at 22 PPG, Azura at 15 PPG and Magbegor with 13.5 PPG all in Washingtons last 5 games.

In their L10 games, The Mystics have given up 40.4 PITP per game – by far the most in the league. In games where CHI has been able to notch over 30 PITP, which includes a game vs WSH where they notched 50, here are some key metrics (in L15 games):
– 75+ Pts in 7/8 games, averaging 83.15 PPG and 85.8 in L5.
– Angel 18.1 PPG, with 14+ Pts in 6/7 games with 22+ min (only miss was a TD vs CON)
– Cardoso 10+ Pts in 5/6

Both of these two have had their success against Mystics, with Angel notching 17 & 22 Pts alongside Cardoso with 18 in her only game. Atkins produced 6 assists per game as she faced this pressure, with just 2.5 3PA. This should directly translate to Banham, while her 3PT success is also unlikely to a repeat of Indiana.

Cardoso is over 19.5 P+R in 7/8 games with >26 minutes this season, averaging 26.5 PR, with her only miss being 19. She is a flawless 5/5 in this sample when alongside Angel.

Last game, Chicago had just 8 active players, and have since released Marquesha Davis & Moriah Jefferson. It’s possible that in addition to Reese’ return, they can get up to 9 players with Van Lith.

Chicago’s offense has committed the most turnovers in the league on both the season (17.5) and in their L10 games (17.8). In the recent span, they are being blocked the most in the league (5.5) and stolen from the most as well (9.2). Hilarious, and they also generate the fewest OPP TOV at just 11 per game as a bonus.

Shakira Austin has been a stock machine, leading the team in both steals per game (1.3) and blocks (1.4) in Washington’s L10 games despite just 26 minutes. Sykes & Citron are right there with her in the steals department, both averaging 1.1 per game as they take on the top guard defenders.

With Edwards still out, Engstler has been getting solid bench frontcourt run – with a sprinkle of Dolson. Neither of these impact Austin, who was pacing for 30 minutes last game vs Mercury along with 15 in the 1H. She has notched 16+ Pts in 8/L9 games with 26+ minutes on the floor.

Chicago is giving up over 20.4 Pts off TOV (most) and 13.5 fastbreak Pts (most), which in turn leaves them surrendering a modestly-high amount of PITP. In halfcourt sets, they give up a ton of threes, the 11th most specifically in their L10 games. Good 3&D players that can thrive both through transition and from behind the arc have been killer; Here is the sample of players who average 1+ steal, >2 FBPTS & >3 3PA have notched these numbers vs CHI (25+ min) since July 1st:
– Courtney Williams 16.5 PPG (14.8 FGA, 4.5 3PA, 1.8 STK)
– Allisha Gray 14 Pts (10 FGA, 8 3PA, 1 STK, 26min)
– Skylar Diggins 21 Pts (14 FGA, 6 3PA, 2 STK)
– Azura Stevens 19 PPG (11 FGA, 6 3PA, 6 STK)
– Kelsey Mitchell 35 Pts (19 FGA, 10 3PA, 3 STK)

Sykes and Citron both qualify for this. Losing Atkins also means losing a POA defender for Chicago, further opening them up for guard play. Chicago has allowed the most FGA per 40min to guards in their L10 games.
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The Valkyries, who were playing their second game with Thornton and Billings, just lost by 31 points to Connecticut – which was not a result I ever expected to see. That was only The Sun’s third win of the entire season, and was the most points they have scored all season long – so can only imagine what Atlanta can do against this defense.

Burton: “We need to hold ourselves to a higher standard of basketball, 95 points is pretty insane”
Nakase: “It would have been nicer if we played at 7, think the product would have been better. I think the time should have been factored when we’re going west coast to east coast trip”

The Sun notched 36 PITP last game, making up just over a third of their total points. The Valkyries have allowed the fewest PITP in any season split you take, at just 28 per game in their L10 games. This is generally a good defensive trait to have when facing a massive Atlanta frontcourt in Brionna Jones & Brittney Griner. When these two met earlier this month, Griner and Jones combined for just 13 FGA.

In turn, GSV is giving up nearly 30 threes a game in the same span (29), so Howard and Gray got up 15 combined threes in this matchup. Typically the 3PA they surrender is not to opposing POA’s (Point-of-Attack), rather is from the player they choose to “sacrifice” in order to double inside action. This includes Yueru and Geiselsoder with 8 attempts of DAL’s 26 total. The game before SEA got up 27, with Nneka notching 7 & Wheeler with 8. Mercury told the same story, with Westbeld seeing 8 and Akani supporting at 6.

They allow by far the most Corner 3s (from both corners), yet the only person to average at least one Corner 3PA has been Maya Caldwell. Guards that can drive and kick have gotten a ton of potentials, with Canada leading the team at 17 potentials despite just 26 minutes and alongside Rhyne/Allisha. The doubling on Jones Post Ups left her second in this regard at 11, which translated to 5 assists. 4 of her assists went to threes.

Griner got up to 30 minutes last game against Minnesota while producing her season-high in PPG at 22, yet she has notched 12 or more Pts in just 3/17 games (0/7 at home) if she falls under the 28 minute mark – which is likely with such a tough matchup.

Atlanta is right there as a strong paint defense, allowing just 31.8 PITP per game, yet aren’t too bad of a 3PT defense as a consequence typically as they are fine with Griner/Jones staying home on post ups.
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The storyline for LA is the return of Cameron Brink, who is reportedly “likely” to have a minutes restriction today but cannot imagine a scenario where she wouldn’t. Regardless, LA frontcourt of Hamby/Stevens has been strong enough where Brink likely isn’t even garnering a starting spot this season. She posted 5 blocks a game against Las Vegas last season.

Plum has faced Aces twice this season at The Michelob Ultra Arena, which served as her home for 6 seasons prior. However, she hasn’t succeeded vs Aces yet this season, losing both games off of 17 Pts (19 FGA) and 13 Pts (7 FGA). The Sparks have now won 5 straight games, including a win over The Liberty in their most recent night.

Rickea Jackson notched 30 Pts in her only meeting (the most recent one) against Las Vegas, so Plum didn’t really need to shoot a whole lot and produced 9 assists herself. This was Jackson’s career high and fueled LA’s 8 point victory.

The Sparks used a ton of handoff action against Vegas, notably seen through Hamby’s 6.5 APG, yet with the addition of Allemand in the starting lineup this action has seen an overall decrease in possessions used. Defensively, LVA has not improved against this type of action, ranking 10th, while allowing the 3rd most FGA per 40 to Guards in their L10 games.

11 starters have notched 8+ rebounds against Las Vegas in July, with 2 of them being guards (Sabrina & Allisha Gray). In these 10 games, only Fagbenle failed to cover Steven’s lines amongst frontcourt starters who played >25 minutes. Azura Stevens notched a double-double in both meetings vs Las Vegas, while Hamby notched 9 per game as well.

Rickea is defending Chelsea Gray, which left her also in great competition for these rebounds. She averaged 5.5 rebounds per game herself last season, with 7 in the only game this season. LV allows the most OREB in the league while giving up the most to guards.

Last game vs The Wings, all three of The Aces’ stars notched their highest potential count of the year:
– A’ja 13, Chelsea 16 & Young 20

A part of this was the nature of the game, as DAL is 2nd in PACE in their L10 games, yet The Sparks are right there with ’em at 3rd. In the most recent game, this trio each had 12 potentials as well.

It is time for A’ja to get back at the helm against a soft LA defense that has still been getting beat up inside, allowing Top 3 PITP and B3 against Post Ups & Putbacks. Hard to find someone on Las Vegas who has not had good history, with the Big 3 averaging:
– Jackie 30 PPG (24 FGA)
– A’ja 24 PPG (15 FGA)
– Chelsea 21.5 PPG (12 FGA)

Breanna Stewart played just 3 minutes against The Sparks on the 2nd night of Liberty’s back-to-back. This was unfortunate timing, as Brondello mentioned pregame that she’d “love to lower Stewie’s minutes. She’s one of the hardest ones. The plan is to lower all their minutes when we move forward and get all our players… our depth, we trust them”.

Stewart is joining the team for their 4 game road trip, yet “the team plans to give her time to fully recover” (x/ Madeline Kenney). Jonquel Jones is currently the key piece that is returning from a month-long ankle injury, yet did get up to 28 minutes against The Sparks. I would assume that Brondello ideally would not have ran her that much in two straight games, yet LA’s offense comes with a lot of size, which will remain true for this upcoming matchup of Dallas.

This is the first meeting between these two, despite being into the 2nd half of the year.

The Wings are 1-7 now with their new lineup that consists of a Yueru/Geiselsoder frontcourt, and have given up the third most OPP PITP in that span at 38.3. The Aces just scored 106 points against Dallas, yet scored 64 of those points from deep or the charity stripe. Dallas has given up the 2nd most OPP FGM (31.6), while playing at the fastest PACE in the league despite the objectively slower lineup. This game should be ultra fast, as The Liberty is the fastest PACE in the L30 days.

Expecting a very similar game as NYL v LAS, which was also two Top 3 PACE squads. LA just secured 37 rebounds along with 24 assists, as NYL has been a consistently poor RA unit. POAs and bigs have all thrived:
– Plum 12 RA | Allemand 16 RA | Azura/Hamby 10+ Reb
– Alyssa Thomas 21 RA | Satou 8 RA (22min)
– Boston 18 RA | McDonald 10 RA
– Gray 11 RA | Canada 14 RA

The Liberty as a team average the fewest OREB per game at just 7 per one, so whoever is expected to lead sets and crash rebounds generally can get them uncontested. DiJonai Carrington is a good candidate, and finally saw 30 minutes after she was out for over a month due to a rib contusion. With over 22 minutes, she has notched 6.8 RPG since the start of June.

McCowan notched 10 rebounds in the third quarter alone, notching her first double-double of the season. By this point last season, she had already notched 7 double-doubles. I doubt that this alone will earn her more run, as the last time she played big minutes was against PHX (9pt-10r, 22min), to which the next three games were all single digit minutes.

Sabrina Ionescu will be hounded defensively by JJ Quinerly, who isn’t a pure lockdown defender but certainly qualifies as a pest. With DiJonai Carrington in the mix as well, I would expect a lot of traps on Ionescu with The Liberty depleted.

Tina Charles last season didn’t even play a back-to-back, and the only one she did this year was just 15 minutes of action (in a close game against PHX as well). She produced just 2 points and 7 PRA in these minutes. She also was questionable yesterday against The Valks due to an illness, which could be pestering today.

However, if a minutes restriction is not in store for Charles, she has killed this Seattle team twice this season with back to back 20 point double-doubles. Subsequently, she should definitely be in store to face doubles today, yet that won’t keep her off the glass. SEA currently notches the fewest OREB in the league as a team, thus surrendering the most OPP RPG in their L10 games (39).

I am actually expecting Mabrey to sit out this game due to how long she was out with the hyperextended knee injury.

Despite The Valkyries only managing 64 points against Connecticut, it was more of a testimate to their complete depleted roster rather than any defensive improvements to The Sun’s defense. Morrow did draw the start over Nelson-Ododa last game.

Gabby Williams has notched a 20.3% usage in the first half in their L5 games, falling to 15% in the 2nd. This notably includes the last game vs WSH, where she had a 22% in the first half, then a literal 0% in 7 minutes of the 2nd due to poor shooting. It makes 1H stronger because she won’t test her shot in the second unless a quality first comes. She has notched 5, 1 and 4 FTM in the three games vs CON (100%) and 11/L15 games.

Gabby joined the rest of the Storm facilitating trio with 12 potentials per game vs CON. Wheeler had 11.5 as well, while Diggins averaged 11. Wheeler has played 15.3 MPG vs CON in their L2, along with 13+ in (at least) 5 straight games. 29/30 players to notch 13+ 1H minutes vs CON in their L10 games has also had at least 10 1H FS, no matter their usage.

Until that changes, I have no reason to not take any player at this mark. CON remains ranking B3 in DRTG, OPP 3PA, OPP FTM, OPP APG