Matchup Rating System
Our Baller Exclusive Matchup Rating System is a dynamic tool that adapts to MLB’s latest trends, dynamically adjusting each team’s Starting Pitcher, Bullpen, and Team Batting ratings based on current performances and historical data. It factors in current form—reflecting recent player and team performances—and accounts for positive or negative regression to balance out extreme fluctuations. To find an edge, compare our Matchup Rating System with the game line to identify discrepancies that could signal a betting opportunity.
| Matchup Rating | Estimated Odds | Win Probability (%) |
| 10 | -375 | 78.95% |
| 9 | -326 to -374 | 76.53% to 78.90% |
| 8 | -284 to -325 | 73.96% to 76.47% |
| 7 | -247 to -283 | 71.18% to 73.89% |
| 6 | -215 to -246 | 68.25% to 71.10% |
| 5 | -188 to -214 | 65.28% to 68.15% |
| 4 | -163 to -187 | 61.98% to 65.16% |
| 3 | -142 to -162 | 58.68% to 61.83% |
| 2 | -125 to -141 | 55.56% to 58.51% |
| 1 | -111 to -124 | 52.61% to 55.36% |
| 0 | -110 to +110 | 47.62% to 52.38% |
| -1 | +111 to +124 | 44.64% to 47.39% |
| -2 | +125 to +141 | 41.49% to 44.44% |
| -3 | +142 to +162 | 38.17% to 41.32% |
| -4 | +163 to +187 | 34.84% to 38.02% |
| -5 | +188 to +214 | 31.85% to 34.72% |
| -6 | +215 to +246 | 28.90% to 31.75% |
| -7 | +247 to +283 | 26.11% to 28.82% |
| -8 | +284 to +325 | 23.53% to 26.04% |
| -9 | +326 to +374 | 21.10% to 23.47% |
| -10 | +375 | 21.05% |
Hitting Stats Glossary with Tips
- TG (Team Games):
- Definition: Total number of games played by the team.
- HR (Home Runs):
- Definition: Total number of home runs hit by the team.
- Tip: Compare HR with ISO to see if the team relies heavily on home runs for scoring. A high ISO but low HR indicates doubles and triples are also significant contributors.
- BB% (Walk Percentage):
- Definition: Percentage of plate appearances that result in walks (bases on balls).
- Tip: Compare BB% with K% (strikeout percentage). A high BB% and low K% typically indicate disciplined hitters who are selective with their pitches, a positive trait.
- K% (Strikeout Percentage):
- Definition: Percentage of plate appearances that result in strikeouts.
- Tip: A low K% shows good plate discipline. Compare it with HardHit% to find hitters who can balance making consistent contact with hitting the ball hard.
- BB/K (Walk-to-Strikeout Ratio):
- Definition: Ratio of walks to strikeouts.
- Tip: A high BB/K ratio is a positive indicator of a disciplined hitter. Compare it with AVG or OBP to identify consistent players with high on-base potential.
- ISO (Isolated Power):
- Definition: Measure of a hitter’s raw power, calculated as slugging percentage minus batting average.
- Tip: Use ISO to identify teams or players with genuine power. Compare it with SLG to see if a player’s power is driven primarily by singles or extra-base hits.
- BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play):
- Definition: Percentage of balls hit into play that result in hits.
- Tip: Compare a hitter’s BABIP with their career average or league average. An unusually high BABIP indicates potential regression to the mean.
- AVG (Batting Average):
- Definition: Average number of hits per at-bat.
- Tip: A high AVG with a low BB% indicates a contact hitter who relies on putting the ball in play. Compare with HardHit% to assess whether the hits are high-quality.
- OBP (On-Base Percentage):
- Definition: Percentage of plate appearances that result in the batter reaching base.
- Tip: Compare OBP with SLG to find players who can get on base and score runs consistently. High OBP with a high SLG is a rare combination, indicating elite hitters.
- SLG (Slugging Percentage):
- Definition: Measure of a hitter’s power, calculated as total bases divided by at-bats.
- Tip: A high SLG paired with a high HardHit% or Barrel% indicates sustainable power. If SLG is high but HardHit% is low, expect regression.
- wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average):
- Definition: Comprehensive measure of offensive production, weighted for each type of hit and walk.
- Tip: Use wOBA to evaluate overall offensive value. Compare with league average or historical data for a better understanding of the hitter’s value.
- wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus):
- Definition: Adjusted measure of runs created by a hitter, relative to league average and park factors.
- Tip: A high wRC+ indicates a well-rounded hitter. Compare with HardHit% or Barrel% to confirm the offensive production’s sustainability.
- Barrel% (Barrel Percentage):
- Definition: Percentage of batted ball events with optimal combinations of exit velocity and launch angle.
- Tip: A high Barrel% correlates well with HR production. Compare with HardHit% and ISO to identify power hitters.
- HardHit% (Hard Hit Percentage):
- Definition: Percentage of batted ball events with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher.
- Tip: A high HardHit% with a low K% indicates a disciplined hitter who makes high-quality contact consistently.
- SB (Stolen Bases):
- Definition: Total number of stolen bases by the team.
- Tip: A high SB count can indicate a team willing to take risks on the bases. Compare with CS to determine the success rate of their aggressiveness.
- CS (Caught Stealing):
- Definition: Total number of times a runner is caught stealing by the opposing team.
- Tip: Compare CS with SB to find teams or players that are aggressive but ineffective at stealing bases.
Pitching Stats Glossary with Tips
- G (Games):
- Definition: Total number of games pitched.
- GS (Games Started):
- Definition: Total number of games started by the pitcher.
- IP (Innings Pitched):
- Definition: Total number of innings pitched by the pitcher.
- Tip: More innings pitched indicates durability and consistency. Compare with IP/G or K/9 to see if a pitcher can maintain strong performance over many innings.
- IP/G (Innings Pitched per Game):
- Definition: Average number of innings pitched per game started.
- Tip: A high IP/G indicates a pitcher trusted to go deep into games. Compare with LOB% to see if they can handle high-pressure situations.
- K/9 (Strikeouts per Nine Innings):
- Definition: Average number of strikeouts per nine innings pitched.
- Tip: A high K/9 shows strikeout potential. Compare with BB/9 to find pitchers who can strike out batters without walking many.
- BB/9 (Walks per Nine Innings):
- Definition: Average number of walks issued per nine innings pitched.
- Tip: A low BB/9 indicates good control. Compare with K/9 or K/BB% to find pitchers who can strike out batters without issuing free passes.
- HR/9 (Home Runs per Nine Innings):
- Definition: Average number of home runs allowed per nine innings pitched.
- Tip: A high HR/9 indicates susceptibility to the long ball. Compare with GB% and FB% to identify fly-ball pitchers prone to giving up home runs.
- K/BB% (Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio Percentage):
- Definition: Percentage of strikeouts relative to walks.
- Tip: A high K/BB% shows dominance on the mound. Compare with WHIP to find pitchers who can limit baserunners while striking out batters.
- BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play):
- Definition: Percentage of balls in play that result in hits.
- Tip: Compare a pitcher’s BABIP with league or career averages to find potential regression. A low BABIP could indicate luck rather than skill.
- LOB% (Left On Base Percentage):
- Definition: Percentage of baserunners left stranded by the pitcher.
- Tip: A high LOB% usually indicates strong pitching. Compare with xFIP to see if the high LOB% is sustainable or if regression is likely.
- GB% (Ground Ball Percentage):
- Definition: Percentage of balls in play that are ground balls.
- Tip: A high GB% indicates a pitcher skilled at inducing ground balls. Combine with FB% to find pitchers who can control contact quality.
- FB% (Fly Ball Percentage):
- Definition: Percentage of balls in play that are fly balls.
- Tip: A high FB% suggests susceptibility to home runs. Compare with HR/FB to find fly-ball pitchers likely to give up homers.
- HR/FB% (Home Run to Fly Ball Percentage):
- Definition: Percentage of home runs to fly balls.
- Tip: Compare HR/FB with a pitcher’s career average to identify outliers. An unusually high HR/FB indicates potential positive regression.
- ERA (Earned Run Average):
- Definition: Average number of earned runs allowed per nine innings pitched.
- Tip: If ERA is much lower than xERA or FIP, expect negative regression and vice versa.
- xERA (Expected Earned Run Average):
- Definition: Expected earned run average based on underlying pitching statistics.
- Tip: Use xERA to identify whether a pitcher’s ERA is supported by their underlying stats.
- FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching):
- Definition: Pitching statistic that focuses solely on the events a pitcher has the most control over: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and home runs.
- Tip: Compare FIP with ERA to identify potential regression. A higher ERA than FIP suggests positive regression is likely.
- xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching):
- Definition: Expected fielding independent pitching based on league-average home run rates.
- Tip: Compare xFIP with FIP and HR/FB to assess how much a pitcher’s performance relies on home run suppression.
- WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched):
- Definition: Average number of walks and hits allowed per inning pitched.
- Tip: A low WHIP usually correlates with low ERA. Compare with LOB% to identify pitchers who can handle high-pressure situations.
- SIERA (Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average):
- Definition: Pitching metric that estimates a pitcher’s run prevention independent of team defense.
- Tip: Use SIERA to find pitchers with sustainable run prevention skills. Compare with ERA to identify potential positive or negative regression.
- WAR (Wins Above Replacement):
- Definition: Measure of a player’s value compared to a replacement-level player.
- Tip: Use WAR to measure a pitcher’s overall value. Compare with innings pitched to find pitchers who provide both quality and quantity.