Author: Dominic Tremblay
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The stakes are massive for both teams in this matchup. For Cincinnati, it’s a must-win scenario to keep their playoff hopes alive. With the Bengals playing on Saturday, they can put pressure on the Broncos and Dolphins, who take the field on Sunday. Their path is clear: win and hope both those teams lose to punch their ticket to the postseason.
As for Pittsburgh, while their AFC North title hopes hinge on a Ravens loss earlier in the day, their focus remains sharp. A win locks up the No. 5 seed and sets up a favorable wild-card matchup with the Texans, rather than a daunting rematch against the Ravens. Mike Tomlin has already signaled that his team will give full effort, regardless of Baltimore’s result.
The first meeting between these teams in Cincinnati was a high-scoring thriller that Pittsburgh won, piling up a season-high 520 yards of offense. While Cincinnati has won four straight since then, they’ve faced a string of underwhelming offenses, and their defense remains suspect. Adding George Pickens back into the mix makes Pittsburgh’s offense even more dangerous in this rematch.
The Steelers have been a reliable play as home underdogs under Tomlin, boasting a 19-11 straight-up record and an even better 20-9-1 ATS in this spot. They’ve also excelled this season on extended rest, going 3-0 both SU and ATS, a situation they find themselves in after playing on Christmas. Tomlin’s divisional underdog trends remain elite: 26-10-2 ATS (72%), with a 22-16 SU mark in those games. He hasn’t finished a season under .500 ATS in this spot since 2014 and is 2-1 ATS in 2024.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s struggles in road primetime games are well-documented, with a dismal 10-43 all-time record. Their defensive vulnerabilities were exposed in the previous matchup, and it’s hard to see them holding up any better this time around.
🏈AFC North rematches where the home team won the last matchup between each other while being on the road are 21-2 SU since 2007 as long as the home team winning percentage is above .250 and the total is set between 41.0 & 49.0
📝The Pittsburgh Steelers (0.625) will host the Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday having won the last matchup 44-38 in Cincinnati on December 1st. The total is currently set at 48.0
🕢8:00 PM EST
📈Pittsburgh are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games when playing at home against Cincinnati.
📉Cincinnati are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference North division.
📊The Steelers are 6-1 SU when scoring 22 or more points this season. The Bengals have allowed 26.1 PPG this season – 4th worst
📊The Steelers are 6-1 SU when allowing less than 3 sacks this season. The Bengals have averaged 2.0 sacks per game over that time span – 6th worst
📊The Bengals are 1-4 against the spread vs top 10 run offenses this season – T-7th-worst in NFL. The Steelers are ranked 10th run offense in the league.
📊The Bengals are 2-11 SU when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season – 4th-worst in NFL. The Steelers have only been intercepted 6 times this season – 6th best in NFL.
🩹Tee Higgins (WR) and Chase Brown (RB) are currently questionable for Saturday’s game.
🎯Najee Harris has a TD in 5 straight games vs CIN
🎯Najee Harris has 53+ receiving yards in 5 straight home games.
🎯Najee Harris has over 11.5 rushing attempts – over 45.5 rushing yards – over 12.5 yards longest rush in 10 straight home games.
🔑With Pittsburgh playing for critical playoff seeding and carrying a strong track record at home, this line feels mispriced. The wrong team might be favored here.
✅Active on Pittsburgh Steelers ML
The Denver Nuggets face the San Antonio Spurs tonight in a matchup that offers plenty of intrigue for basketball fans and bettors alike. Denver is laying 3.5 points on the road, and there’s strong reason to believe they’ll cover that number convincingly.
The Nuggets, sitting atop the Western Conference standings, are a team built on consistency and led by the two-time MVP Nikola Jokić. Despite a narrow 113-110 loss to the Spurs just days ago, this game sets up as a prime bounce-back opportunity for Denver. Jokić, averaging a stunning 31 points, 12 rebounds, and 9 assists per game, remains the engine of this offense, capable of exploiting mismatches at every position. Against the Spurs’ porous defense, ranked near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency, Jokić is likely to dominate the paint and control the pace of the game.
Another reason to lean toward Denver is their strong record after a loss. The Nuggets have thrived in situations requiring adjustments, thanks to head coach Michael Malone’s strategic prowess. Under his guidance, Denver has covered the spread in 62% of their games following a defeat over the past two seasons. The recent loss to San Antonio also came under atypical circumstances, with Denver shooting just 29% from three-point range, well below their season average of 37%. A return to form from beyond the arc should tilt the scales heavily in their favor tonight.
On the defensive side, the Nuggets have the personnel to limit San Antonio’s offensive focal point, Victor Wembanyama. While the rookie phenom has been sensational, averaging nearly 26 points per game, he’s faced struggles against elite defenders. Denver’s Aaron Gordon, should he play tonight, offers the physicality and agility needed to challenge Wembanyama’s shot creation. Even if Gordon remains sidelined, the Nuggets’ defensive schemes have been effective at neutralizing opposing big men, relying on rotations that force the ball out of their hands.
The Spurs, for all their excitement around Wembanyama, remain a rebuilding team prone to inconsistency. With a 7-14 record as moneyline underdogs this season, they’ve struggled to perform against elite competition. Their defense has been a glaring weakness, allowing 118.7 points per game, and they’ve failed to contain dynamic offenses like Denver’s. While San Antonio’s young roster is undoubtedly improving, they remain outmatched against the discipline and execution of the Nuggets.
Finally, there’s a psychological edge in Denver’s favor. The Nuggets, as defending NBA champions, thrive under the spotlight and rarely drop back-to-back games against inferior competition. Their veteran experience contrasts sharply with the youthful Spurs, who are still finding their identity in high-pressure moments.
🏀In conference back-to-back games when the now away team lost the last game by 2 to 17 points margin facing an opponent with a winning percentage below .660 are a stellar 43-0 ATS since 2007 when the spread is between -3.5 & 7.0
📝The Denver Nuggets visits the San Antonio Spurs (.529) having lost yesterday by 3 points to the same Spurs. They are now favored by -2.5 points.
🕢8:00 PM EST
📈Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in the 2nd game of a back-to-back.
📊The Nuggets have averaged 54.9 points in the paint per game since the start of the 2023-24 season – 2nd-highest in the NBA.
📊The Spurs have allowed 52.7 points in the paint per game since the start of the 2023-24 season – 4th-worst in the NBA.
🎯Russell Westbrook has over 14.5 points in his last 5 games on the road (18.2 avg) and San Antonio allowed over 14.5 points to starting PGs in 4 of last 5 at home.
🎯Jeremy Sochan has under 1.5 blocks+steals in his last 5 games. Denver held starting PFs to under 1.5 blocks+steals in their last 5 games.
🗑️1st basket: Victor Wembanyama +425
🔪Sharp money is on San Antonio ML (29% of the public vs 65% of the money)
🔑Denver’s ability to rebound, both figuratively and literally, sets them up to not only win but to comfortably cover the -3.5 spread. With Jokić at the helm, a refined shooting performance, and a more cohesive defensive effort, the Nuggets are primed to reassert their dominance in San Antonio tonight.
✅Active on Denver Nuggets -3.0 (ATS)
The Edmonton Oilers and Seattle Kraken meet tonight in what could be a lower-scoring affair, with several underlying trends pointing toward the total staying under 6.5 goals. Both teams have shown tendencies in recent weeks that lean toward controlled, defensive hockey rather than high-scoring shootouts.
The Oilers have displayed a renewed focus on defensive structure, climbing into the league’s top ten in goals against over their past ten games. This shift has helped them limit opponents’ scoring opportunities and has resulted in fewer high-scoring contests. Coupled with their inconsistent offensive output, especially against disciplined defensive teams like the Kraken, Edmonton’s games have often struggled to reach inflated goal totals.
The Kraken, known for their methodical, grind-it-out style of play, complement this narrative. Their system emphasizes limiting high-danger chances, and while their scoring has been opportunistic, they rarely engage in wide-open games. Over their recent stretch, Seattle has been involved in several matchups where pace and shot quality have been tightly controlled, contributing to games that trend under the projected totals.
Fatigue could also play a role tonight. Edmonton is coming off a game just two days ago, and the quick turnaround often forces teams to prioritize a more cautious and defensive style. This approach is likely to slow the tempo, reducing transition opportunities and overall scoring chances. The Kraken, who thrive in low-event hockey, are adept at capitalizing on this scenario, further tipping the scales toward a lower total.
🏒Home teams priced between -120 & +200 when the total is set at 6.5 are 12-0 to the UNDER when playing vs a team in the same division.
📝The Seattle Kraken hosts the Edmonton Oilers being priced at +140 with a total at 6.5
🕢10:00 PM EST
📈The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Edmonton’s last 7 games.
🥅Calvin Pickard (66) / Philipp Grubauer (12)
🎯Zach Hyman has a point in 8 straight divisional games.
🔑Considering these factors, the teams’ tendencies toward lower-scoring games, the Oilers’ recent defensive performance, and potential fatigue from back-to-back games, it is plausible to be confident that the total goals scored in tonight’s matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and the Seattle Kraken will stay below 6.5.
✅Active on Edmonton Oilers @ Seattle Kraken UNDER 6.5
Neither team has played since late November, but Liberty comes into this matchup at a major disadvantage. Five starters, including quarterback Kaidon Salter, arguably the engine of their offense, have entered the transfer portal.
Buffalo, on the other hand, is in a far better position. The Bulls have had minimal roster turnover, with only two players in the portal, one of whom is the kicker, who still plans to finish the season. Being at full strength gives Buffalo a clear edge in this game.
If everything fell perfectly into place for Liberty, they’d have a shot at winning. But that’s a big “if.” Asking a quarterback with no career starts to succeed behind a backup-heavy offensive line is a tall order.
Buffalo isn’t without flaws, but they’ve got the tools to handle this matchup. Players like Dolac, Stewart, and linebacker Dion Crawford provide a solid defensive foundation. And while defensive back Marquis Cooper’s status is uncertain after missing the season finale, the Bulls’ defensive unit is still capable of dictating this game.
🏈Winning record teams averaging less than 43.5 points/game on a 2+ games winning streak are 19-1-1 ATS since 2014 when their spread is >-10.0 and the total more than 46.0
📝Buffalo Bulls receives the Liberty Flames being on a 2 games winning streak, favored by 3 points and a total set at 50.5
🕢11:00 AM EST
📈Bulls are 2-0 ATS vs teams allowing less than 25 points/game.
📉Liberty has failed to cover the spread in 4 of the last 5 non-conference games they played.
🎯Ryan Burger has under 152.5 passing yards & under 1.5 TD passes in his last 6 games.
🔑The game will likely be controlled on the ground, especially with Liberty’s offensive limitations. In the end, I see Buffalo covering the -4.5 spread comfortably.
✅Active on Buffalo Bulls -4.5 (ATS)
📊04/01/2025 SYSTEMS RECAP⬇️
🏈21-2 NFL ML • 8 wins streak🔥 | Pittsburgh Steelers ML
🏀43-0 NBA ATS • WHAT ?🤯🔥🔥 | Denver Nuggets -3.5
🏒12-0 NHL O/U 🔥 | Edmonton Oilers @ Seattle Kraken U6.5
🏈19-1-1 NCAAF ATS • Active since 2014 | Buffalo Bulls -4.5
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Revenge spot for the Cubs 🐻
- Game: Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians
- Date: Wednesday, August 14
- Time: 4:40 PM ET
Click here for The Money Baller MLB matchup page for this game
The Cubs will seek revenge tonight in the last game of the series as they lost the last 2 games to the Guardians by a single run which were both scored in late innings. Jameson Taillon will try to help avoid the sweep as Cleveland will send Alex Cobb on the bump.
The Cubs are hot at the plate recently, ranking 10th in weighted on-base average (wOBA) and 9th in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks. This indicates that their offense is finding success against righties, a trend they will look to continue in this matchup.
On the flip side, Cleveland’s offense has been struggling, particularly at home. Over the last 30 days, the Guardians rank a dismal 26th in both wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. In other words, their bats are failing to generate meaningful contact or runs, especially in matchups against right-handed arms. Their power metrics are also lacking, ranking 26th in on-base percentage (OBP), 24th in slugging percentage (SLG), 25th in on-base plus slugging (OPS), and 26th in isolated power (ISO) during this same span.
Defensively, the Cubs have been solid. Their opponents have posted a hard-hit rate of just 38% this season, which is the 5th best in MLB. This ability to limit hard contact should play well against a Guardians lineup that struggles to generate consistent power, with the lowest hard-hit rate in the majors at just 35%.
The Cubs’ starting pitcher, Jameson Taillon, primarily utilizes a four-seam fastball, throwing it 31% of the time overall and 40% against left-handed batters. This is bad news for the Guardians, as they are last in MLB in runs above average versus four-seam fastballs.
On the other hand, the Guardians will be up against Alex Cobb, who relies heavily on his sinker (45%) and splitter (43%). While Cobb’s arsenal can be tricky, the Cubs are well-equipped to handle it, ranking 9th and 12th, respectively, against sinkers and splitters. This should further solidify the Cubs’ ability to score runs off Cobb.
Given the Cubs’ offensive momentum against righties, the Guardians’ continued struggles at the plate, and the favorable pitching matchups, the Cubs moneyline (ML) looks appealing. Combining these factors with the Cubs’ ability to limit hard contact while exploiting the Guardians’ inability to handle fastballs, the data suggests the Cubs should come out on top. In addition, The Money Baller matchup page shows a favorable Matchup Rating on the Cubs.
Chicago Cubs ML +120 (BetMGM)
Click here for The Money Baller MLB matchup page for this game
Blue Jays will try to benefit from home advantage 🏠
Game: Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays
Date: Friday, August 9
Time: 5:07 PM ET
In tonight’s highlighted matchup, we are heading north of the border at Rogers Centre for a game between the Oakland A’s and the Toronto Blue Jays. Mitch Spence will take the hill for Oakland and the Jays will send Jose Berrios
Spence’s performance as an away underdog has been dismal, with a record of 1-4 in such situations. His struggles are exacerbated when coming off games where he throws 90+ pitches, holding a 1-6 record in those scenarios. This suggests that Spence tends to wear down, making him vulnerable in his following start. Additionally, his road ERA stands at 5.22, significantly higher than his home ERA of 3.86. His peripheral stats are also concerning, as he ranks in the 18th percentile for barrel rate, 22nd percentile for exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage. These numbers indicate that hitters are making solid contact against him, especially on the road.
Berrios has been a reliable force for the Blue Jays, particularly when playing at home. As a home favorite, he boasts a 7-2 record, and when facing teams with a losing record, he’s even more dominant with an 8-1 record. Berrios has a 2.99 ERA at home, compared to a much less impressive 5.29 ERA on the road. Moreover, Berrios has had the Athletics’ number, winning his last five starts against them dating back to 2021.
The Blue Jays have been hot offensively at home, ranking 7th in both wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. On the other hand, the Athletics have been one of the worst teams in these categories, ranking 29th in both wOBA and wRC+ against right-handers on the road during the same period. The Athletics are also the 4th worst scoring team and rank 5th worst in run defense on the road this season, which doesn’t bode well for them in this matchup.
Given the clear pitching advantage with Berrios, the Blue Jays’ recent offensive success at home, and the Athletics’ struggles both offensively and defensively on the road, the Blue Jays’ moneyline (-155) looks like a strong play. Berrios’ track record against the Athletics and Spence’s poor performance trends only solidify the confidence in this bet.
Back the Blue Jays to take care of business at home tonight.
Orioles vs. Blue Jays: Orioles will try to extend their winning streak 🔥
- Date: Tuesday, August 6, 2024
- Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
- Start Time: 5:07 PM ET
Click here for The Money Baller MLB matchup page for this game
Tonight, the Baltimore Orioles will take on the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre in what promises to be an interesting matchup. These teams just faced off in Baltimore a week ago where the Orioles won the series 3-1. Can the Blue Jays get their revenge at home?
Grayson Rodriguez vs. Chris Bassitt
Grayson Rodriguez takes the mound for the Orioles, bringing with him an ERA of 3.86, but an xERA of 3.74, signaling that he’s due for some positive regression. Rodriguez has a potent fastball, which he elevates 62% of the time, 2nd most in the league. This is a significant advantage as Blue Jays hitters have struggled with elevated fastballs, slugging just .310, the 4th worst in MLB. Additionally, 90% of Rodriguez’s fastballs clock in at 95 mph or greater, and the Blue Jays have a poor .342 slugging percentage against pitches of this velocity, ranking 5th worst in the league.
On the other side, Chris Bassitt will start for the Blue Jays. He has struggled this season, particularly in the last 30th percentile in expected batting average (xBA), expected on-base percentage (xOBP), and barrel rate among qualified pitchers. Bassitt’s hard-hit percentage allowed is a relatively modest 31.9%. However, the Blue Jays’ bullpen has been a weak point, with relievers allowing a slugging percentage of .445, the worst in MLB. Bassitt has rarely made it past the sixth inning in July, so expect Toronto’s shaky relief corps to play a significant role tonight.
Orioles’ offensive firepower
Baltimore’s offense has been dominant against right-handed pitching on the road, ranking 1st in weighted on-base average (wOBA) and weighted runs created plus (wRC+). Their hitters lead the league with a hard-hit rate of 44%, and they’ll be looking to capitalize on the Blue Jays’ pitching vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays’ bats have been less impressive, sitting at 16th and 15th in wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at home.
The Orioles’ prowess extends to facing relief pitchers, where they lead MLB with a .442 slugging percentage. With Bassitt unlikely to go deep into the game, Baltimore’s lineup should see ample success against a struggling Blue Jays bullpen.
Player to watch: Ryan O’Hearn
One of the key players for the Orioles tonight might be Ryan O’Hearn. He has a remarkable OPS of 1.445 in nine at-bats against Bassitt over the last two seasons. O’Hearn thrives against cutters, which is Bassitt’s second-most thrown pitch at 20.1%. With a batting average of .400 and a fly ball rate of 47.8% against cutters, O’Hearn could go yard.
Betting side
Given the Orioles’ offensive strength, especially against right-handed pitching and relief pitchers, they are a solid bet to cover the -1.5 run-line (+110, consensus line). Additionally, O’Hearn is a player to target for player props, considering his favorable matchup against Bassitt and his success against cutters.
Click here for The Money Baller MLB matchup page for this game
Dominic has been a capper for 15+ years and is a die-hard sports fan who loves to share his passion for numbers and statistics. He is an SDQL expert that shares many amazing stats on his ‘X’ account: @dominic_0404.
Giants vs. Nationals: Giants set to shine on Patrick Corbin’s day ✨
- Date: Monday, August 5, 2024
- Game: San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals
- Start Time: 4:45 PM ET
Click here for The Money Baller MLB matchup page for this game
Tonight’s game at Nationals Park features a compelling matchup as the San Francisco Giants take on the Washington Nationals. With Logan Webb pitching for the Giants and Patrick Corbin taking the mound for the Nationals, the game sets up favorably for San Francisco, particularly given the recent performances and season-long trends of both teams.
Pitching Matchup: Webb vs. Corbin
Logan Webb has been a reliable force for the Giants, with a strong track record against struggling teams. Since 2021, Webb has gone 9-2 straight up (SU) against non-divisional opponents with a losing record who send a starting pitcher with an ERA above 5.00 on the mound. Tonight, he faces a Nationals lineup that ranks 24th in both weighted on-base average (wOBA) and weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers at home this season. Furthermore, Washington’s hitters have been making weak contact recently, ranking 26th in hard contact rate against righties over the last 14 days.
Webb’s pitch arsenal, which includes a heavy dose of changeups (37%), sinkers (36%), and sliders (22%), aligns well against a Nationals lineup that struggles with these pitches. Specifically, Washington ranks 22nd, 18th, and 25th, respectively, in runs above average against Webb’s primary offerings.
On the other side, Patrick Corbin has endured a tough season, with metrics placing him among the league’s worst. Corbin is in the bottom fifth percentile for expected wOBA (xwOBA), expected batting average (xBA), expected slugging percentage (xSLG), expected on-base percentage (xOBP), barrel rate, and hard-hit percentage. The Giants, who rank seventh in wOBA and wRC+ against left-handed pitchers on the road this season, are well-equipped to take advantage of Corbin’s struggles. Moreover, Corbin has gone 1-8 SU this season against teams with a winning percentage above .480 when their starting pitcher has an ERA below 4.00.
Corbin’s pitch mix includes sliders (36%), sinkers (34%), four-seam fastballs (14%), and cutters (11%). The Giants have performed well against these pitches, ranking eighth, third, 17th, and 21st, respectively, in runs above average. San Francisco’s hitters have also been making solid contact lately, ranking second in hard contact rate against right-handed pitchers in the last 14 days.
Prediction: Giants to Secure the Win
The Giants’ offense has been potent against left-handed pitching, and tonight’s game provides another opportunity to showcase their strength.
Webb’s effectiveness against struggling lineups and the Giants’ strong offensive numbers against left-handers point to a decisive advantage. Meanwhile, Corbin’s ongoing struggles and the Nationals’ weak offensive output make it challenging to foresee a different outcome.
Betting on the Giants ML (-165, BetMGM) to win appears to be a solid choice, as they aim to continue their success against a reeling Nationals team.
Click here for The Money Baller MLB matchup page for this game, featuring one BALLER SYSTEM active.
Dominic has been a capper for 15+ years and is a die-hard sports fan who loves to share his passion for numbers and statistics. He is an SDQL expert that shares many amazing stats on his ‘X’ account: @dominic_0404.
Baltimore’s bats vs. Carrasco: Orioles set for a big night 💥
Tonight’s showdown at Progressive Field promises excitement as the Baltimore Orioles take on the Cleveland Guardians. With Dean Kremer on the mound for Baltimore and Carlos Carrasco pitching for Cleveland, the Orioles look to capitalize on their recent success against right-handed pitchers.
Pitching Matchup: Kremer vs. Carrasco
Dean Kremer has proven to be an effective starter for Baltimore this season. Utilizing a mix of pitches, including a 37% 4-seam fastball, 27% cutter, 13% sinker, and 10% curveball, Kremer has held opposing hitters in check. The Guardians rank 15th, 29th, 21st, and 15th in runs above average against these pitches, respectively. Notably, right-handed starters have posted a stellar 2.24 ERA against Cleveland over the past 30 days, highlighting the Guardians’ struggles against such pitchers.
Carlos Carrasco, on the other hand, has had a rough patch recently. Over the last 15 days, he has allowed 12 earned runs in just 9 innings pitched. Carrasco’s primary arsenal includes a 26% 4-seam fastball, 26% slider, 25% changeup, and 17% sinker. However, his fastball velocity ranks in the 13th percentile, making it more hittable. The Orioles rank 3rd, 14th, 6th, and 24th in runs above average against these pitches, respectively. Additionally, pitchers with similar repertoires to Carrasco have posted a 4.71 ERA against Baltimore over the last year.
Carrasco has struggled significantly this season, ranking among the worst in several key pitching metrics. He is third-worst in home runs per fly ball (HR/FB), fourth-worst in home runs per nine innings (HR/9), third-worst in opponent batting average, and tenth-worst in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). His career record as a home underdog stands at a disappointing 2-21.
Orioles’ Offensive Edge
The Orioles have been an unstoppable force against right-handed pitchers on the road this season, leading the league in weighted on-base average (wOBA) and weighted runs created plus (wRC+). They also rank fourth in both metrics over the last 30 days. In contrast, the Guardians have struggled mightily against right-handers at home, ranking 27th in wOBA and wRC+ over the past month.
A key player to watch is Gunnar Henderson, who has been outstanding against sliders, a key pitch in Carrasco’s arsenal. Henderson leads the league with a .756 slugging percentage on sliders this season. Carrasco has allowed a .486 slugging percentage on sliders, ranking third-highest among qualified pitchers. Henderson’s prowess extends to facing right-handed pitchers with low strikeout rates like Carrasco; he has a .647 slugging percentage in his last 196 plate appearances against such pitchers. Furthermore, Henderson boasts a .533 batting average against the Guardians this season, making him a critical factor in tonight’s game.
Prediction
Given the Orioles’ offensive strength against right-handed pitching and Carrasco’s recent struggles, betting on the Orioles ML (-110, Caesars) seems a favorable option, as they aim to capitalize on their advantages and continue their strong form against right-handed pitching.
Rockies vs. Angels: Rockies aiming for strong performance in Anaheim ⛰️
- Date: Tuesday, July 30, 2024
- Game: Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Angels
- Start Time: 9:40 PM ET
Click here for The Money Baller MLB matchup page for this game
As the Colorado Rockies head to Angel Stadium of Anaheim to face the Los Angeles Angels, the matchup brings together two teams trending in opposite directions offensively and with divergent performances from their starting pitchers.
The Rockies have been quietly effective against right-handed pitchers over the past 30 days, ranking 6th in wOBA and 11th in wRC+. This offensive surge has been fueled by their impressive batting metrics (4th in batting average, 3rd in home run per flyball percentage, and 6th in both ISO and hard contact percentage).
On the mound for the Angels, Griffin Canning has faced significant struggles this season. Among qualified pitchers, Canning has the worst FIP in the league, the 4th worst xFIP, and ranks in the bottom five in both hard contact percentage allowed and batting average against. His July has been particularly rough, with a .319 batting average allowed, 13 earned runs given up in just 17 innings pitched, and a 6.88 ERA. Tonight’s matchup against a hot Rockies lineup could present further difficulties.
Cal Quantrill will take the mound for the Rockies, coming off a solid outing against the red-hot Red Sox, where he allowed only two earned runs on six hits over six innings. Quantrill’s repertoire includes a sinker (37%), splitter (28%), and cutter (14%), pitches that the Angels have struggled against, ranking 20th, 27th, and 27th in runs above average, respectively. Quantrill has also shown a knack for success in specific scenarios; since 2021, he is 11-2 SU (3-0 SU this season) against teams with a winning percentage between .400 and .550, sending a pitcher with an ERA above 4.00 when the expected runs total is nine or more.
In contrast, the Angels’ offense has been anemic against right-handed pitchers, ranking 27th in wOBA and 28th in wRC+ over the last month. They are 26th in batting average, 29th in slugging percentage, and rank last in both ISO and home run per flyball percentage during the same period.
With the Rockies’ offense firing on all cylinders and the Angels’ lineup and pitching staff facing significant struggles, Colorado appears well-positioned for a strong showing tonight.
The combination of Quantrill’s solid recent performance and Canning’s challenges on the mound point to a nice underdog play on Rockies ML (+120, DK and ESPNBet).