Author: Dominic Tremblay

• Game: Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians
• Date: Wednesday, August 14
• Time: 4:40 PM ET

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The Cubs will seek revenge tonight in the last game of the series as they lost the last 2 games to the Guardians by a single run which were both scored in late innings. Jameson Taillon will try to help avoid the sweep as Cleveland will send Alex Cobb on the bump.

The Cubs are hot at the plate recently, ranking 10th in weighted on-base average (wOBA) and 9th in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks. This indicates that their offense is finding success against righties, a trend they will look to continue in this matchup.

On the flip side, Cleveland’s offense has been struggling, particularly at home. Over the last 30 days, the Guardians rank a dismal 26th in both wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. In other words, their bats are failing to generate meaningful contact or runs, especially in matchups against right-handed arms. Their power metrics are also lacking, ranking 26th in on-base percentage (OBP), 24th in slugging percentage (SLG), 25th in on-base plus slugging (OPS), and 26th in isolated power (ISO) during this same span.

Defensively, the Cubs have been solid. Their opponents have posted a hard-hit rate of just 38% this season, which is the 5th best in MLB. This ability to limit hard contact should play well against a Guardians lineup that struggles to generate consistent power, with the lowest hard-hit rate in the majors at just 35%.

The Cubs’ starting pitcher, Jameson Taillon, primarily utilizes a four-seam fastball, throwing it 31% of the time overall and 40% against left-handed batters. This is bad news for the Guardians, as they are last in MLB in runs above average versus four-seam fastballs.

On the other hand, the Guardians will be up against Alex Cobb, who relies heavily on his sinker (45%) and splitter (43%). While Cobb’s arsenal can be tricky, the Cubs are well-equipped to handle it, ranking 9th and 12th, respectively, against sinkers and splitters. This should further solidify the Cubs’ ability to score runs off Cobb.

Given the Cubs’ offensive momentum against righties, the Guardians’ continued struggles at the plate, and the favorable pitching matchups, the Cubs moneyline (ML) looks appealing. Combining these factors with the Cubs’ ability to limit hard contact while exploiting the Guardians’ inability to handle fastballs, the data suggests the Cubs should come out on top. In addition, The Money Baller matchup page shows a favorable Matchup Rating on the Cubs.

Chicago Cubs ML +120 (BetMGM)

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Game: Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays

Date: Friday, August 9

Time: 5:07 PM ET

In tonight’s highlighted matchup, we are heading north of the border at Rogers Centre for a game between the Oakland A’s and the Toronto Blue Jays. Mitch Spence will take the hill for Oakland and the Jays will send Jose Berrios

Spence’s performance as an away underdog has been dismal, with a record of 1-4 in such situations. His struggles are exacerbated when coming off games where he throws 90+ pitches, holding a 1-6 record in those scenarios. This suggests that Spence tends to wear down, making him vulnerable in his following start. Additionally, his road ERA stands at 5.22, significantly higher than his home ERA of 3.86. His peripheral stats are also concerning, as he ranks in the 18th percentile for barrel rate, 22nd percentile for exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage. These numbers indicate that hitters are making solid contact against him, especially on the road.

Berrios has been a reliable force for the Blue Jays, particularly when playing at home. As a home favorite, he boasts a 7-2 record, and when facing teams with a losing record, he’s even more dominant with an 8-1 record. Berrios has a 2.99 ERA at home, compared to a much less impressive 5.29 ERA on the road. Moreover, Berrios has had the Athletics’ number, winning his last five starts against them dating back to 2021.

The Blue Jays have been hot offensively at home, ranking 7th in both wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. On the other hand, the Athletics have been one of the worst teams in these categories, ranking 29th in both wOBA and wRC+ against right-handers on the road during the same period. The Athletics are also the 4th worst scoring team and rank 5th worst in run defense on the road this season, which doesn’t bode well for them in this matchup.

Given the clear pitching advantage with Berrios, the Blue Jays’ recent offensive success at home, and the Athletics’ struggles both offensively and defensively on the road, the Blue Jays’ moneyline (-155) looks like a strong play. Berrios’ track record against the Athletics and Spence’s poor performance trends only solidify the confidence in this bet.

Back the Blue Jays to take care of business at home tonight.

• Date: Tuesday, August 6, 2024
• Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
• Start Time: 5:07 PM ET

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Tonight, the Baltimore Orioles will take on the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre in what promises to be an interesting matchup. These teams just faced off in Baltimore a week ago where the Orioles won the series 3-1. Can the Blue Jays get their revenge at home?

Grayson Rodriguez vs. Chris Bassitt

Grayson Rodriguez takes the mound for the Orioles, bringing with him an ERA of 3.86, but an xERA of 3.74, signaling that he’s due for some positive regression. Rodriguez has a potent fastball, which he elevates 62% of the time, 2nd most in the league. This is a significant advantage as Blue Jays hitters have struggled with elevated fastballs, slugging just .310, the 4th worst in MLB. Additionally, 90% of Rodriguez’s fastballs clock in at 95 mph or greater, and the Blue Jays have a poor .342 slugging percentage against pitches of this velocity, ranking 5th worst in the league.

On the other side, Chris Bassitt will start for the Blue Jays. He has struggled this season, particularly in the last 30th percentile in expected batting average (xBA), expected on-base percentage (xOBP), and barrel rate among qualified pitchers. Bassitt’s hard-hit percentage allowed is a relatively modest 31.9%. However, the Blue Jays’ bullpen has been a weak point, with relievers allowing a slugging percentage of .445, the worst in MLB. Bassitt has rarely made it past the sixth inning in July, so expect Toronto’s shaky relief corps to play a significant role tonight.

Orioles’ offensive firepower

Baltimore’s offense has been dominant against right-handed pitching on the road, ranking 1st in weighted on-base average (wOBA) and weighted runs created plus (wRC+). Their hitters lead the league with a hard-hit rate of 44%, and they’ll be looking to capitalize on the Blue Jays’ pitching vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays’ bats have been less impressive, sitting at 16th and 15th in wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at home.

The Orioles’ prowess extends to facing relief pitchers, where they lead MLB with a .442 slugging percentage. With Bassitt unlikely to go deep into the game, Baltimore’s lineup should see ample success against a struggling Blue Jays bullpen.

Player to watch: Ryan O’Hearn

One of the key players for the Orioles tonight might be Ryan O’Hearn. He has a remarkable OPS of 1.445 in nine at-bats against Bassitt over the last two seasons. O’Hearn thrives against cutters, which is Bassitt’s second-most thrown pitch at 20.1%. With a batting average of .400 and a fly ball rate of 47.8% against cutters, O’Hearn could go yard.

Betting side

Given the Orioles’ offensive strength, especially against right-handed pitching and relief pitchers, they are a solid bet to cover the -1.5 run-line (+110, consensus line). Additionally, O’Hearn is a player to target for player props, considering his favorable matchup against Bassitt and his success against cutters.

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Dominic has been a capper for 15+ years and is a die-hard sports fan who loves to share his passion for numbers and statistics. He is an SDQL expert that shares many amazing stats on his ‘X’ account: @dominic_0404.

• Date: Monday, August 5, 2024
• Game: San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals
• Start Time: 4:45 PM ET

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Tonight’s game at Nationals Park features a compelling matchup as the San Francisco Giants take on the Washington Nationals. With Logan Webb pitching for the Giants and Patrick Corbin taking the mound for the Nationals, the game sets up favorably for San Francisco, particularly given the recent performances and season-long trends of both teams.

Pitching Matchup: Webb vs. Corbin

Logan Webb has been a reliable force for the Giants, with a strong track record against struggling teams. Since 2021, Webb has gone 9-2 straight up (SU) against non-divisional opponents with a losing record who send a starting pitcher with an ERA above 5.00 on the mound. Tonight, he faces a Nationals lineup that ranks 24th in both weighted on-base average (wOBA) and weighted runs created plus (wRC+) against right-handed pitchers at home this season. Furthermore, Washington’s hitters have been making weak contact recently, ranking 26th in hard contact rate against righties over the last 14 days.

Webb’s pitch arsenal, which includes a heavy dose of changeups (37%), sinkers (36%), and sliders (22%), aligns well against a Nationals lineup that struggles with these pitches. Specifically, Washington ranks 22nd, 18th, and 25th, respectively, in runs above average against Webb’s primary offerings.

On the other side, Patrick Corbin has endured a tough season, with metrics placing him among the league’s worst. Corbin is in the bottom fifth percentile for expected wOBA (xwOBA), expected batting average (xBA), expected slugging percentage (xSLG), expected on-base percentage (xOBP), barrel rate, and hard-hit percentage. The Giants, who rank seventh in wOBA and wRC+ against left-handed pitchers on the road this season, are well-equipped to take advantage of Corbin’s struggles. Moreover, Corbin has gone 1-8 SU this season against teams with a winning percentage above .480 when their starting pitcher has an ERA below 4.00.

Corbin’s pitch mix includes sliders (36%), sinkers (34%), four-seam fastballs (14%), and cutters (11%). The Giants have performed well against these pitches, ranking eighth, third, 17th, and 21st, respectively, in runs above average. San Francisco’s hitters have also been making solid contact lately, ranking second in hard contact rate against right-handed pitchers in the last 14 days.

Prediction: Giants to Secure the Win

The Giants’ offense has been potent against left-handed pitching, and tonight’s game provides another opportunity to showcase their strength.

Webb’s effectiveness against struggling lineups and the Giants’ strong offensive numbers against left-handers point to a decisive advantage. Meanwhile, Corbin’s ongoing struggles and the Nationals’ weak offensive output make it challenging to foresee a different outcome.

Betting on the Giants ML (-165, BetMGM) to win appears to be a solid choice, as they aim to continue their success against a reeling Nationals team.

Click here for The Money Baller MLB matchup page for this game, featuring one BALLER SYSTEM active.

Dominic has been a capper for 15+ years and is a die-hard sports fan who loves to share his passion for numbers and statistics. He is an SDQL expert that shares many amazing stats on his ‘X’ account: @dominic_0404.

Tonight’s showdown at Progressive Field promises excitement as the Baltimore Orioles take on the Cleveland Guardians. With Dean Kremer on the mound for Baltimore and Carlos Carrasco pitching for Cleveland, the Orioles look to capitalize on their recent success against right-handed pitchers.

Pitching Matchup: Kremer vs. Carrasco

Dean Kremer has proven to be an effective starter for Baltimore this season. Utilizing a mix of pitches, including a 37% 4-seam fastball, 27% cutter, 13% sinker, and 10% curveball, Kremer has held opposing hitters in check. The Guardians rank 15th, 29th, 21st, and 15th in runs above average against these pitches, respectively. Notably, right-handed starters have posted a stellar 2.24 ERA against Cleveland over the past 30 days, highlighting the Guardians’ struggles against such pitchers.

Carlos Carrasco, on the other hand, has had a rough patch recently. Over the last 15 days, he has allowed 12 earned runs in just 9 innings pitched. Carrasco’s primary arsenal includes a 26% 4-seam fastball, 26% slider, 25% changeup, and 17% sinker. However, his fastball velocity ranks in the 13th percentile, making it more hittable. The Orioles rank 3rd, 14th, 6th, and 24th in runs above average against these pitches, respectively. Additionally, pitchers with similar repertoires to Carrasco have posted a 4.71 ERA against Baltimore over the last year.

Carrasco has struggled significantly this season, ranking among the worst in several key pitching metrics. He is third-worst in home runs per fly ball (HR/FB), fourth-worst in home runs per nine innings (HR/9), third-worst in opponent batting average, and tenth-worst in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). His career record as a home underdog stands at a disappointing 2-21.

Orioles’ Offensive Edge

The Orioles have been an unstoppable force against right-handed pitchers on the road this season, leading the league in weighted on-base average (wOBA) and weighted runs created plus (wRC+). They also rank fourth in both metrics over the last 30 days. In contrast, the Guardians have struggled mightily against right-handers at home, ranking 27th in wOBA and wRC+ over the past month.

A key player to watch is Gunnar Henderson, who has been outstanding against sliders, a key pitch in Carrasco’s arsenal. Henderson leads the league with a .756 slugging percentage on sliders this season. Carrasco has allowed a .486 slugging percentage on sliders, ranking third-highest among qualified pitchers. Henderson’s prowess extends to facing right-handed pitchers with low strikeout rates like Carrasco; he has a .647 slugging percentage in his last 196 plate appearances against such pitchers. Furthermore, Henderson boasts a .533 batting average against the Guardians this season, making him a critical factor in tonight’s game.

Prediction

Given the Orioles’ offensive strength against right-handed pitching and Carrasco’s recent struggles, betting on the Orioles ML (-110, Caesars) seems a favorable option, as they aim to capitalize on their advantages and continue their strong form against right-handed pitching.

• Date: Tuesday, July 30, 2024
• Game: Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Angels
• Start Time: 9:40 PM ET

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As the Colorado Rockies head to Angel Stadium of Anaheim to face the Los Angeles Angels, the matchup brings together two teams trending in opposite directions offensively and with divergent performances from their starting pitchers.

The Rockies have been quietly effective against right-handed pitchers over the past 30 days, ranking 6th in wOBA and 11th in wRC+. This offensive surge has been fueled by their impressive batting metrics (4th in batting average, 3rd in home run per flyball percentage, and 6th in both ISO and hard contact percentage).

On the mound for the Angels, Griffin Canning has faced significant struggles this season. Among qualified pitchers, Canning has the worst FIP in the league, the 4th worst xFIP, and ranks in the bottom five in both hard contact percentage allowed and batting average against. His July has been particularly rough, with a .319 batting average allowed, 13 earned runs given up in just 17 innings pitched, and a 6.88 ERA. Tonight’s matchup against a hot Rockies lineup could present further difficulties.

Cal Quantrill will take the mound for the Rockies, coming off a solid outing against the red-hot Red Sox, where he allowed only two earned runs on six hits over six innings. Quantrill’s repertoire includes a sinker (37%), splitter (28%), and cutter (14%), pitches that the Angels have struggled against, ranking 20th, 27th, and 27th in runs above average, respectively. Quantrill has also shown a knack for success in specific scenarios; since 2021, he is 11-2 SU (3-0 SU this season) against teams with a winning percentage between .400 and .550, sending a pitcher with an ERA above 4.00 when the expected runs total is nine or more.

In contrast, the Angels’ offense has been anemic against right-handed pitchers, ranking 27th in wOBA and 28th in wRC+ over the last month. They are 26th in batting average, 29th in slugging percentage, and rank last in both ISO and home run per flyball percentage during the same period.

With the Rockies’ offense firing on all cylinders and the Angels’ lineup and pitching staff facing significant struggles, Colorado appears well-positioned for a strong showing tonight.

The combination of Quantrill’s solid recent performance and Canning’s challenges on the mound point to a nice underdog play on Rockies ML (+120, DK and ESPNBet).

• Date: Monday, July 29, 2024
• Game: Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks
• Start Time: 9:40 PM ET

As the Washington Nationals visit the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight, all eyes will be on the matchup on the mound and the contrasting offensive capabilities of the two teams. The Diamondbacks, with their strong track record at home, have an advantage to continue their successful run, especially when Jordan Montgomery takes the hill.

Montgomery has been a stabilizing force for the Diamondbacks this season, particularly in the friendly confines of Arizona. The team is a perfect 5-0 when Montgomery starts as a home favorite. Furthermore, the Diamondbacks have a 7-1 record after Montgomery delivers a quality start.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks have been superior against left-handed pitching at home over the past 30 days, ranking 5th in both wOBA and wRC+. This recent surge contrasts sharply with the Nationals, who have struggled mightily against lefties on the road, sitting 27th in these metrics.

Montgomery’s pitching arsenal, featuring a sinker (36%), curveball (27%), changeup (20%), and 4-seam fastball (15%), aligns well against the Nationals’ lineup. Washington ranks 9th in runs above average against the sinker but falls significantly against the curveball (28th) and changeup (26th). Montgomery’s repertoire could prove challenging for the Nationals’ hitters, particularly given that he’s due for some positive regression (4.31 FIP vs. 6.11 ERA).

On the other side, the Nationals will rely on their starter, Mitchell Parker, whose mix includes a 4-seam fastball (49%), curveball (25%), and splitter (17%). The Diamondbacks have been exceptional against these pitches, ranking 1st in runs above average versus the 4-seam and 2nd against the curveball.

With the Diamondbacks’ strong home-field advantage, a balanced lineup excelling against left-handed pitching, and Montgomery’s ability to deliver quality starts, Arizona appears well-positioned for another solid performance. The Nationals, facing a challenging matchup, will need to overcome significant hurdles to pull off an upset.

The stats and trends point to Diamondbacks ML (-160, Caesars) as a strong look tonight.

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Dominic has been a capper for 15+ years and is a die-hard sports fan who loves to share his passion for numbers and statistics. He is an SDQL expert that shares many amazing stats on his ‘X’ account: @dominic_0404.

• Date: Sunday, July 28, 2024
• Game: New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
• Start Time: 05:10 PM ET

Tonight’s game between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park is set to be a high-octane affair, with both teams bringing potent offenses and intriguing pitching matchups to the table.

The Yankees will send Carlos Rodon to the mound. Rodon has been a significant factor in high-scoring games this season, with a 13-6-1 record to the OVER and an impressive 7-2-0 mark as an away favorite. His xERA of 4.26 suggests he might be vulnerable, especially against a Red Sox lineup that has shown proficiency against pitchers with similar repertoires, who have an ERA of 4.89 against Boston over the past year.

Rodon primarily relies on his 4-seam fastball (53%) and slider (27%). The Red Sox are well-equipped to handle these pitches, ranking 7th in runs above average against both the 4-seam and the slider. This sets up a fascinating duel, as Boston’s hitters have been in fine form recently, ranking 2nd in wOBA and 6th in wRC+ at home over the past month.

On the other side, the Red Sox will counter with Tanner Houck, whose surface-level stats (2.71 ERA) might be masking some underlying concerns, as indicated by his 3.82 xERA. Houck’s pitch mix includes a slider (43%), sinker (31%), and splitter (22%). The Yankees’ lineup, known for its offensive firepower, ranks 9th, 1st, and 2nd in runs above average against these pitches, respectively.

The Yankees have been dominant against right-handed pitching on the road this season, ranking 2nd in both wOBA and wRC+. They also lead the league in runs per game on the road, further emphasizing the challenge Houck will face tonight. Conversely, the Red Sox have had their own issues with run prevention at home, allowing the 6th most runs per game.

With both teams’ offenses firing on all cylinders and the pitchers facing tough matchups, we can expect an exciting and potentially high-scoring game. The storied rivalry between the Yankees and Red Sox adds an extra layer of intensity, ensuring that tonight’s showdown at Fenway Park will be a good one.

My analysis points to a play on the Yankees/Red Sox Over 9 (-108, DraftKings).

• Date: Saturday, July 20, 2024
• Game: Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
• Start Time: 01:05 PM ET
  

Editor’s Note: I am happy to introduce a talented contributor to our team: Dominic Tremblay. Dominic has been a capper for 15+ years and is a die-hard sports fan who loves to share his passion for numbers and statistics. He is an SDQL expert that shares many amazing stats on his ‘X’ account: @dominic_0404.

– Austin

In today’s matchup between the Rays and the Yankees, home/away splits will play a big role as Taj Bradley will be facing Nestor Cortes in Yankee Stadium in an afternoon game (1:05 PM ET first pitch). Let’s dive into each starter’s splits and stats.

The Rays will send Taj Bradley in the bump. He is not the same pitcher when starting on the road with a 6.20 ERA and a .309 OBA compared to 1.50 ERA and a .160 OBA at home. Bradley is 0-6 SU F5 as an underdog in his short career and 0-4 SU F5 as an away dog this season. He is also due for negative regression suggested by his 3.88 xERA compared to a 2.90 ERA. Also, the fact that he’ll face a good lineup in a home run-friendly park, where his 2.7 HR/9 and 42.4% fly ball rate on the road should play against him.

On the other side, Nestor Cortes will start for the Yankees, and he’s been excellent at home with a 1.81 ERA, a .190 OBA and a 0.8 HR/9.

Yankees are ranked 3rd with 3.13 F5 runs scored at home and 3rd in F5 runs allowed this season. In comparison, the Rays are 24th with 2.09 F5 runs scored on the road. The Rays are struggling with RISP lately as they are dead last in MLB, batting just .103 in this situation over the last 2 weeks.