Dominic Tremblay - The Money Baller

📊Active Systems for February 22nd

Posted on February 22, 2025February 22, 2025 by Dominic Tremblay

🏀Texas A&M is 10-0 ATS at home against teams averaging more than 74.4 PPG when the spread is within three points of a pick’em.
❓This trend suggests that Texas A&M thrives in tight home matchups against high-scoring teams. This works because their defensive style or pace likely neutralizes strong offensive opponents, making them undervalued in near-even matchups.

📊Tennessee Volunteers are 0-11 ATS as an underdog of fewer than 8.5 points against ranked opponents that force at least 12.8 turnovers per game. They are also 0-11 SU in this spot, losing by an average of +11.5 points per game.
❓This trend indicates that Tennessee struggles against disciplined, defensive-minded ranked teams when they are a moderate underdog. This likely happens because turnover-heavy teams disrupt Tennessee’s offensive flow, exposing their weaknesses in close matchups.

🕢12:00 PM EST

📈Texas are 7-1 ATS vs teams allowing less than 67 points per game.

📈Texas are 9-2-1 ATS as home favorites.

⏪”A” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Texas A&M Aggies -2.5
(Spread went from +2.5 to -2.5 despite Tennessee +2.5 receiving 51% of public bets and 39% of the money).

✅Active on Texas A&M Aggies -1.5

🏀Houston is 10-0 to the UNDER at home when the total is below 135, following a game in which they made 10 or more three-pointers. These games have stayed under by an average of -12.9 points per game.
❓This trend suggests that after a strong three-point shooting game, Houston’s next home matchup slows down significantly, keeping the score low. This likely works because Houston’s elite defense controls the pace at home, and when oddsmakers set a low total, it reflects a slower, grind-it-out game.

📊Iowa State is 14-0 to the UNDER as an underdog when the total is below 152.5, following a game in which they made 7 or more three-pointers. These games have gone under by an average of -9.7 points per game.
❓This trend indicates that Iowa State plays in low-scoring games as an underdog, even after solid three-point shooting performances. This likely works because as an underdog, they are often facing stronger teams that dictate pace, limiting their scoring opportunities.

🕢2:00 PM EST

📉Houston are 4-10-1 to the UNDER after 4+ days off.

⏪”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Iowa St. @ Houston UNDER 130.0
(Total went from 134.5 to 130.0 despite the OVER receiving 65% of public bets and 62% of the money).

✅Active on Iowa St. Cyclones @ Houston Cougars UNDER 130.0

🏀VCU Rams are 11-0 ATS as a conference favorite with fewer than three days of rest, following a win by seven or more points. They are also 11-0 SU in this spot, winning by an average of +14.3 points per game.
❓This trend suggests that VCU thrives in quick-turnaround games within their conference after a decisive win. This works because momentum carries over, and their system likely benefits from familiarity with conference opponents.

📊George Mason is 0-9-1 ATS as a road underdog of 8+ points when the total exceeds 128.5, following a win in which they shot below 42.5% from the field. They are also 0-10 SU in this scenario, losing by an average of +20.6 points per game.
❓This trend shows that when George Mason wins despite poor shooting, they struggle in their next game, especially as a big road underdog. This likely works because their previous win was unsustainable, poor shooting teams that win often rely on defense or luck, and that doesn’t translate well against stronger competition.

🕢4:00 PM EST

📈VCU is 6-1 ATS after less than 4 days of rest.

📉George Mason is 1-3 ATS vs teams allowing less than 67 points per game.

✅Active on VCU Rams -10.5

🏀AAC away underdogs that were also an underdog in their last game are 11-0 ATS in 2024 facing a team that was also an underdog in their last game.

📊Rice has lost 6 straight games when playing during daytime.

🕢2:00 PM EST

✅Active on Tulsa Golden Hurricanes +6.5

🏀USA away underdogs between +2.5 & +11.5 that lost their previous game are 9-0 ATS in 2024 vs an opponent who also lost their last game. The total must be between 139.0 & 164.0

🕢5:00 PM EST

✅Active on UTEP Miners +3.5

🏒Home favorites with rest advantage are 37-5 SU this season playing against division rival.

📊Ottawa has won 6 straight games when facing a team on a losing streak.

🕢7:00 PM EST

📈Ottawa is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home vs Montreal.

📉Montreal is 3-7 SU when their line is set between +133 & +163

🎯Tim Stutzle has a point in 8 straight games. (1+ point @ -210)

🎯Patrik Laine has 2+ shots on goal in 5 straight games vs Ottawa (2+ SOG @ -155)

✅Active on Ottawa Senators ML

🏒Winnipeg Jets are 22-3 SU as favorites bigger than -110 on 1+ days of rest since 2023.

🕢7:00 PM EST

📈Jets are 8-1 SU when their line is set between -112 & -142

📈Jets are 12-2 SU as road favorites.

📉Blues are 7-15 SU vs teams above .550

🎯Mark Scheifele has a point in 7 straight road games as a favorite. (1+ point @ -200)

✅Active on Winnipeg Jets ML

🏀Below .600 home teams with a spread between -8.0 & +9.0 playing on 1+ days rest facing an opponent on a 4+ games road trip and lost their previous game are 33-11 ATS since 2022 when the total is above 216.0

📊Portland Trail Blazers are 7-0 ATS against Eastern Conference opponents.

🕢10:00 PM EST

📈Portland has won 15 of 16 home games when facing Charlotte.

🎯Anfernee Simons has 6+ assists in 5 straight home games. (Over 5.5 assists @ -115)

⚠️⏪RLM in favor of Charlotte Hornets ML

✅Active on Portland Trailblazers -4.5

◼️Texas A&M Aggies -2.5
◼️Iowa St. @ Houston UNDER 130.0
◼️VCU Rams -10.5
◼️Portland Trailblazers ML
◼️Ottawa Senators +1.5 & Winnipeg Jets ML

🏀 Houston Rockets have hit the OVER in 14 straight non-division road games, following a home game.

🏀 Charlotte Hornets have gone UNDER in 10 straight games as an underdog of fewer than 13.5 points, when facing a team they lost the previous matchup against.

🏀 Chicago Bulls have hit the OVER in nine straight games as a rested home underdog of more than 3.5 points against Western Conference opponents.

🏀 Brooklyn Nets are 0-9 ATS as a double-digit rested underdog, when the total is greater than 210 and they are facing a team they previously defeated.

🏀 Los Angeles Lakers are 8-0 ATS as an underdog against teams with one day of rest.

🏀 Denver Nuggets are 8-0 ATS as a home favorite when favored by between 6 and 18 points.

🏀 Utah Jazz have hit the OVER in seven straight games as a home underdog against conference opponents.

🏀 Iowa State has gone UNDER in 14 straight games as an underdog, when the total is under 152.5 and they are coming off a game in which they made at least seven three-pointers.

🏀 Auburn has hit the OVER in 14 straight games following a conference matchup, when they scored fewer than -7.5 delta points and made fewer than 14 free throws.

🏀 Oklahoma has gone UNDER in 13 straight games as a home underdog, following a loss in which they shot better than 33% from the field.

🏀 Texas Tech has hit the OVER in 11 straight games as a home favorite of more than -24.5, following a game in which they failed to cover the spread by more than nine points.

🏀 Texas A&M is 10-0 ATS at home against teams averaging more than 74.4 points per game, when the spread is within three points of a pick’em.

🏀 Wisconsin is 10-0 ATS as a single-digit favorite, against teams with fewer than four days of rest.

🏀 Florida State is 0-10 ATS as an underdog of five or more points in revenge games, when the total is under 158.5.

🏀 Clemson has gone UNDER in nine straight games, following a game in which they covered the spread by more than 13 points.

🏀 Vanderbilt has gone UNDER in eight straight home games, following a game in which they failed to cover the spread by more than seven points.

🏒Blue Jackets are 5-0 in 1st period OVER as home favorites.

🏒Stars are 4-0 in 1st period OVER as away underdogs.

🏒Red Wings are 8-1 in 1st period OVER as home favorites.

❓ RLM are identified at a certain time during the day. While I report these plays later in the day, some lines may have already moved back. The key takeaway is the early sharp movement which focuses on understanding where the sharp money hit, even if the line has since adjusted. These can still be considered, even if the numbers changed.

⏪🏀”A” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Texas A&M Aggies -2.5
(Spread went from +2.5 to -2.5 despite Tennessee +2.5 receiving 51% of public bets and 39% of the money).

⏪🏀”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Iowa St. @ Houston UNDER 130.0
(Total went from 134.5 to 130.0 despite the OVER receiving 65% of public bets and 62% of the money).

⏪🏀”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Charlotte Hornets ML
(Line went from +183 to +165 despite Portland ML receiving 66% of public bets and 61% of the money).

⏪🏀”B+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Utah Jazz +8.5
(Spread stays still at +8.5 despite Houston -8.5 receiving 64% of public bets and 63% of the money).

Thanks for reading today’s insights!

If you found value in this post, don’t forget to like and share my page with fellow sports enthusiasts. Let’s continue turning data into dollars, one game at a time.

See you tomorrow with more winning systems 🏆

📊Active Systems for February 21st

Posted on February 21, 2025February 21, 2025 by Dominic Tremblay

🏀Home teams are 8-0 ATS since 2021 when their opponent’s last game went to overtime, won the game but failed to cover the spread and are now on no rest.
❓This trend suggests that teams coming off an exhausting, close overtime win struggle significantly on no rest, making them vulnerable against a fresh home team. This likely works because overtime games require extra effort, both physically and mentally, leading to fatigue, poor execution, and potential lineup limitations in the next game.

📊The New York Knicks are 1-6-1 ATS when they are playing their second game in two days. Their only win is against the Wizards (who they also lost to under the same conditions) and the push is to the Raptors. They also are 0-3-1 ATS when on the road on a b2b and 0-3 ATS vs teams above .400 on b2b.
❓This trend highlights that the Knicks struggle when playing on short rest, especially against competent opponents. Their only cover came against a weak team (Wizards), and their road struggles suggest that travel plus fatigue makes them even more unreliable. This likely works because the Knicks rely on physical play and defensive intensity, both of which decline in back-to-back scenarios, making it difficult for them to cover spreads.

🕢7:00 PM EST

📈Cavaliers are 12-4 ATS vs teams above .550

📉Knicks lost the last matchup by 6 points playing at home vs Cleveland.

🎯Darius Garland has 25+ points in 4 straight games on b2b.

🎯Donovan Mitchell has 6+ assists in 6 straight home games.

⏪”B-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5
(Spread went from -7.5 to -8.5 despite Knicks +8.5 receiving 55% of public bets and 51% of the money).

✅Active on Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5

🏀San Antonio Spurs are 0-14 ATS as a home underdog against teams they previously defeated when the total is below 246. They lost those games by an average of -13.4 points per game. They are also 0-14 SU in this spot.
❓This trend suggests that when the Spurs face a team they previously beat, they not only fail to cover but also lose outright by a wide margin. This likely happens because teams adjust and seek revenge, exposing San Antonio’s weaknesses in rematches. The total being below 246 also implies a slightly slower-paced game, where the Spurs’ defensive flaws get magnified, making it harder for them to keep up.

📊San Antonio Spurs are 0-10 ATS as an underdog of fewer than 8.5 points with less than two days of rest against teams they previously defeated. They lost by an average of 16 points per game. They are also 0-10 SU in this scenario.
❓This trend further reinforces that San Antonio struggles in rematches, especially when they don’t have much recovery time. The fact that they lose by an average of 16 points suggests that their style of play is easy to counter, and fatigue only worsens their performance.

📊Detroit Pistons are 12-0-1 ATS in road games with a spread under 9.5, following a game in which they scored 116+ points.
❓This trend indicates that when Detroit plays well offensively (scoring 116+), they carry that momentum into their next road game and consistently exceed expectations. This trend likely works because hot shooting and offensive confidence travel well, and oddsmakers may not fully adjust for the Pistons’ scoring surge.

🕢8:30 PM EST

📈Pistons are 5-1 ATS as road favorites.

🩹Victor Wembanyama (SAS) is ruled OUT

🎯Malik Beasley has 4+ threes in 8 straight games vs teams under .500

✅Active on Detroit Pistons -4.0

🏀Away underdogs priced between +110 & +250 that played their last game at home are 21-2 ATS when the total is between 216.0 & 229.0 and the opponent is in the same conference as them.

🕢9:30 PM EST

🩹Wolves have a lot of injuries to deal with / Randle (O)-Edwards (Q)-Conley (Q)-Gobert (Q)

✅Active on Minnesota Timberwolves +3.5

🏀Golden State Warriors are 0-7 ATS with totals greater than 219.5, following a game in which they allowed fewer than 100 points.

📊Golden State Warriors are 1-10 ATS in 2024 vs teams in the Pacific Division.

🕢10:00 PM EST

✅Active on Sacramento Kings +2.5

🏀Manhattan is 13-0 ATS as an underdog when coming off rest between 2 and 11 days.

📊Away underdogs between +3.5 & +4.0 who won their last game are 24-8 ATS vs teams that lost their previous game on the road when the total is below 150.0 in 2024.

🕢7:00 PM EST

📈Manhattan is 6-1 ATS when their spread is between +1.5 & +5.5

📈Manhattan is 8-2 ATS as road underdogs.

✅Active on Manhattan Jaspers +3.5

◼️Detroit Pistons -4.0 📊🖥️📢💯
◼️Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5 📊⏪🖥️📢💯

📊Trend(s) in favor of the team
⏪Reverse Line Movement in favor of the team
🖥️Projected score in favor of the team
📢Consensus in favor of the team
👨‍🔬Expert pick in favor of the team
💲 Sharp action in favor of the team
💯Stats in favor of the team

🏀 Milwaukee Bucks have hit the OVER in 12 straight games with totals under 236.5, when coming off a game that had a spread within three points of pick’em.

🏀 Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the OVER in 13 straight games with rest against rested teams, following a road loss in the regular season.

🏀 Miami Heat are 0-12 ATS as a road favorite of fewer than six points against conference opponents they previously defeated.

🏀 Orlando Magic are 11-0 ATS at home with spreads greater than -17, when facing teams coming off a road loss that average fewer than 2.2 assists per turnover.

🏀 New York Knicks are 11-0-1 to the OVER as a regular-season underdog.

🏀 Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the OVER in 10 straight games as a road underdog in the regular season, when facing a team that is not at a rest disadvantage and that they previously defeated.

🏀 San Antonio Spurs are 0-10 ATS as an underdog of fewer than 8.5 points with fewer than two days of rest, when facing a team they previously defeated.

🏀 Dallas Mavericks have hit the OVER in eight straight games, following a game in which they made fewer than 15 three-pointers.

🏀 Oakland is 19-0 ATS as an underdog when the total is 145 or higher.

🏀 Merrimack has gone UNDER in 14 straight home games.

🏀 Princeton is 0-11 ATS with fewer than 10 days of rest, when facing a team they previously defeated.

🏀 Michigan is 0-10 ATS in revenge games as a favorite of fewer than 21.5 points on non-neutral courts.

🏀 Marquette is 8-0 ATS in its last eight meetings against Villanova.

🏀 Miami (Ohio) has hit the OVER in eight straight games as a home favorite, when the total is less than 161.5.

⏪🏀”B-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5
(Spread went from -7.5 to -8.5 despite Knicks +8.5 receiving 55% of public bets and 51% of the money).

Thanks for reading today’s insights!

If you found value in this post, don’t forget to like and share my page with fellow sports enthusiasts. Let’s continue turning data into dollars, one game at a time.

See you tomorrow with more winning systems 🏆

📊Active Systems for February 20th

Posted on February 20, 2025February 20, 2025 by Dominic Tremblay

🏀The Memphis Grizzlies are 17-0 ATS as a road favorite against Eastern Conference teams they defeated in a previous matchup when the total is greater than 221.
❓This trend suggests that when Memphis faces an Eastern Conference team they’ve already beaten, they not only win but also cover, especially in higher-scoring games. This likely works because familiarity gives them a game-plan advantage, allowing them to exploit the same weaknesses as before. The high total (221+) also suggests a faster-paced game, which benefits Memphis when they control the tempo.

📊The Memphis Grizzlies are 15-3 ATS facing a non-conference opponent with a spread between +7.0 & -11.0 in 2024.
❓This trend shows they perform exceptionally well against unfamiliar opponents when the game is expected to be somewhat competitive (not a blowout either way). This trend likely works because Memphis adapts well to new matchups, exploiting teams that aren’t used to their defensive schemes or playing style. The spread range suggests they are often properly valued by oddsmakers in these spots, yet they consistently exceed expectations.

📊The Grizzlies are 13-1 ATS (13-1 SU) in their last 14 games against the Eastern Conference. Memphis is outscoring opponents 131.9-118.4 in these games. Memphis is 6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS in these games on the road. Grizzlies are 10-0 SU, 10-0 ATS in these games as a favorite, outscoring opponents by +20.2 points per game.

🕢7:00 PM EST

📈Grizzlies won the last matchup by 15 points back in January.

📈Grizzlies are 7-3 ATS as road favorites.

📈Grizzlies are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs Indiana.

📉Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games.

✅Active on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5

🏀The Philadelphia 76ers are 0-9 ATS with rest, following a game in which they scored fewer than 102 points.
❓This trend suggests that when Philly has a low-scoring performance and then gets rest, they fail to cover the spread in their next game. This likely happens because their offensive struggles carry over, even with extra rest, possibly due to injuries, poor shooting form, or matchup disadvantages that don’t improve overnight. Oddsmakers might overestimate their ability to bounce back, leading to consistent ATS failures.

📊The Boston Celtics are 9-1 ATS since 2022 when they had 15+ offensive rebounds in their last game and are on 4+ days of rest.
❓This trend indicates that when Boston dominates the offensive glass and then gets extended rest, they not only win but also cover at an elite rate. This likely works because extra possessions from offensive rebounds create more scoring opportunities, and with additional rest, they can fully recover and execute at a high level. The combination of rebounding dominance and fresh legs makes them extremely difficult to slow down.

🕢7:00 PM EST

📉Philadelphia are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games.

📉Philadelphia are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs an Eastern conference opponent.

✅Active on Boston Celtics -7.0

🏀Atlanta Hawks are 12-0 ATS as a conference underdog of fewer than 11.5 points, as long as they are not at a rest disadvantage.
❓This trend suggests that when Atlanta is a moderate underdog in a conference game and has equal or more rest than their opponent, they consistently cover the spread. This likely works because they perform well in competitive matchups where they aren’t overly outmatched, and proper rest allows them to maximize their athleticism and scoring ability. The rest factor ensures they aren’t fatigued, which might be crucial for a team that relies on pace and shooting.

📊The Orlando Magic are 26-42 ATS (38.24%) on the road when they are priced smaller than -370 since 2023.
❓This trend indicates that when Orlando is a road favorite (but not a heavy one), they struggle to cover. This likely happens because they are good enough to be favored but not dominant enough to win convincingly, leading to closer-than-expected games.

📊The Magic are 0-7 SU and 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games with more than 1 day of rest. Magic are being outscored 106.3-92.3 in these games. Orlando has lost 5 of these games by 9+ points and has failed to score 100 points in all of these games.

🕢7:30 PM EST

📈Atlanta are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games.

📈Atlanta are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference conference.

📉Orlando are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games on the road.

📉Orlando are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing on the road against Atlanta.

✅Active on Atlanta Hawks +1.0 or ML

🏀North Alabama is 0-10 ATS as an underdog against teams averaging more than 7.7 three-pointers per game when the total is below 152.5. They are failing to cover by -17.5 points per game in these conditions.
❓This trend suggests they struggle against teams that can shoot from deep in lower-scoring games. This likely happens because they lack the defensive ability to contest three-pointers effectively and don’t have the offensive firepower to keep up in these controlled-scoring matchups.

📊Lipscomb is 9-0 ATS as a favorite of 8.5 points or fewer when the total is under 154.5. They cover by an average of +12.1 points per game in these situations.
❓This trend suggests they excel in matchups where they are expected to win but not in a blowout, especially when the game isn’t projected to be a high-scoring shootout. This likely works because Lipscomb plays efficiently in structured, moderate-paced games, allowing them to consistently outperform expectations.

📊Lipscomb is also 7-0 ATS as a favorite against teams that have covered in back-to-back games while allowing fewer than 73.5 PPG. They are covering by an average of +14.9 points per game.
❓This trend shows that they thrive against teams perceived to be in good form. This likely works because their offensive style or matchup advantages allow them to expose teams that have recently played well but might be due for regression.

🕢8:00 PM EST

✅Active on Lipscomb Bisons -6.5

◼️Memphis Grizzlies ML 📊🖥️📢👨‍🔬
◼️Boston Celtics ML 📊🖥️📢👨‍🔬
◼️Atlanta Hawks +1.5 📊🖥️📢

📊Trend(s) in favor of the team
⏪Reverse Line Movement in favor of the team
🖥️Projected score in favor of the team
📢Consensus in favor of the team
👨‍🔬Expert pick in favor of the team
💲 Sharp action in favor of the team
💯Stats in favor of the team

🏀 San Antonio Spurs have hit the OVER in 11 straight games following a loss of 12 or more points.

🏀 Denver Nuggets are 10-0 ATS at home with a spread under 10.5, when facing a team they previously defeated.

🏀 Chicago Bulls have hit the UNDER in nine straight games with rest, following a home game in which they allowed 112 or more points.

🏀 Brooklyn Nets are 0-8-1 ATS against rested opponents with winning records, when they are on a winning streak of two or more games.

🏀 Milwaukee Bucks have hit the OVER in eight straight games against teams they previously shot under 47% against and made fewer than 14 three-pointers against.

🏀 Portland Trail Blazers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games.

🏀 Old Dominion has hit the UNDER in 17 straight home games with fewer than five days of rest, following a game in which they shot under 45%. (vs Marshall)

🏀 Maryland is 0-14 ATS against teams averaging more than 9.5 turnovers and fewer than 79.2 points per game, when coming off an ATS win of seven or more points. (vs USC)

🏀 Oregon State has hit the OVER in 13 straight games when the total is greater than 129.5, as long as they are not favored by more than 15.5 points. (vs Pepperdine)

🏀 North Florida has hit the OVER in 12 straight games when the total is under 159.5. (vs Jacksonville)

🏀 Northwestern has hit the OVER in 11 straight games when playing on fewer than four days of rest. (vs Ohio State)

🏀 Le Moyne has hit the OVER in 10 straight games, following a game in which they shot greater than 44% from the field. (vs Saint Francis PA)

🏀 Southern Miss is 8-0 ATS as a home favorite, following a loss. (vs Coastal Carolina)

⏪🏀”A+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Phoenix Suns -2.0
(Spread went from +2.5 to -2.0 despite Spurs +2.0 receiving 57% of public bets and 53% of the money).
⚠️💲Smart Money detected coming in on Spurs ATS & ML

⏪🏀”A” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Hofstra Pride -7.5
(Spread went from -5.5 to -7.5 despite Monmouth +7.5 receiving 77% of public bets and 64% of the money).

⏪🏀”A” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Portland Trailblazers +3.0
(Spread went from +5.0 to +3.0 despite Los Angeles -3.0 receiving 80% of public bets and 79% of the money).

⏪🏀”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of S. Utah Thunderbirds +6.5
(Spread went from +8.5 to +6.5 despite Abilene Chr. -6.5 receiving 66% of public bets and 63% of the money).
💲Smart Money detected coming in on Southern Utah ATS

Thanks for reading today’s insights!

If you found value in this post, don’t forget to like and share my page with fellow sports enthusiasts. Let’s continue turning data into dollars, one game at a time.

See you tomorrow with more winning systems 🏆

📊Active Systems for February 18th

Posted on February 18, 2025February 18, 2025 by Dominic Tremblay

🏀Iowa State is 9-0 ATS as a rested favorite following a game where they allowed opponents to shoot over 39.4% from three. In this situation, they are also 9-0 SU, winning by an average margin of +20.8 points per game.
❓This trend suggests that when Iowa State has time to recover and adjust after a poor defensive game against the three-ball, they bounce back in a dominant fashion. This likely works because their coaching staff emphasizes defensive corrections, and with rest, they execute those adjustments effectively.

📊Colorado is 0-9 ATS as an underdog after scoring 61+ points in their previous game.
❓This suggests that their scoring performance in the previous game may create a false perception of offensive consistency, but in reality, they struggle to replicate it against tougher competition. Their inability to cover likely stems from a combination of inefficient offense and defensive shortcomings when facing stronger opponents.

🕢8:00 PM EST

📈Iowa State is 2-0 ATS vs Colorado this season. (won by 10 & 28 points).

📉Colorado is 2-7 ATS vs teams above .650

⚠️💲Smart Money detected coming in on Colorado ATS

✅Active on Iowa State Cyclones -18.5

🏀Houston is 14-0 to the UNDER as a favorite of less than 21.5 points, with fewer than 5 days of rest, following a game where the spread was within 3 points of a pick’em. These games have gone UNDER by an average of -9.4 points per game.
❓This trend suggests that when Houston plays in a game that was expected to be competitive (within 3 points of a pick’em) and then enters their next game as a moderate favorite on short rest, the total tends to go under. This likely works because Houston plays a defensive, physical style that slows the pace, especially when fatigued. Additionally, after a close game, their defense tightens up, limiting scoring opportunities and leading to games finishing nearly 10 points below the total on average.

📊Arizona State is 11-0 to the UNDER when not an underdog of more than 16.5 points against teams averaging fewer than 11 turnovers per game. These matchups have stayed UNDER by an average of -11.9 points per game.
❓This trend indicates that when Arizona State faces teams that take care of the ball, their games consistently go under. This likely happens because low-turnover teams control the pace and prevent transition opportunities, which reduces easy fast-break points. Arizona State also tends to struggle in half-court offensive sets, meaning these matchups become slower, grind-it-out games where scoring is suppressed, leading to an average under margin of -11.9 points.

🕢9:00 PM EST

✅Active on Houston Cougars @ Arizona State Devils UNDER 134.0

🏀Home teams in a revenge game vs a ranked opponent are 45-25-1 ATS since 2022 when they’re coming off a road game vs a ranked opponent.

🕢9:00 PM EST

✅Active on Mississippi State -2.5

BEST PLAYS OF THE DAY

◼️BYU Cougars -3.0 ⏪🖥️👨‍🔬
◼️UConn Huskies -8.5 📊⏪🖥️👨‍🔬
◼️Michigan State -3.5 📊🖥️📢

🏀 DAVIDSON has hit the UNDER in 16 straight home conference games against teams with fewer than six days of rest when the spread is within three points of pick’em. (vs Loyola Chicago)

🏀 HOUSTON has hit the UNDER in 14 straight games as a favorite of more than 21.5 points with fewer than five days of rest, following a game where the spread was within three points of pick’em. (vs Arizona State)

🏀 NORTH FLORIDA has hit the OVER in all 12 games this season as a favorite. (vs Stetson)

🏀 VILLANOVA is 0-10 ATS against teams averaging more than 45.8% shooting and 15 assists per game, following a game in which they allowed more than seven made three-pointers. (vs UConn)

🏀 PURDUE is 0-10 ATS as a road underdog of fewer than 7.5 points, following a game in which they allowed more than seven delta points. (vs Michigan State)

🏀 BUTLER has hit the OVER in 10 straight games. (vs Xavier)

🏀 TEXAS A&M has hit the UNDER in 9 straight games following a game in which they scored fewer than 75 points. (vs Mississippi State)

🏀 COLORADO is 0-9 ATS as an underdog following a game in which they scored exactly 61 points. (vs Iowa State)

🏀 AUSTIN PEAY has hit the OVER in 8 straight games as a favorite of fewer than 9.5 points. (vs Bellarmine)

🏀 VIRGINIA TECH has hit the OVER in 7 straight games when playing in matchups where the spread is within three points of pick’em. (vs Boston College)

⏪🏀”A+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Western Michigan Broncos -2.0
(Spread went from -1.5 to -2.0 despite Loyola Chicago receiving 98% of public bets and 88% of the money).
⚠️💲Smart Money detected coming in on Buffalo ATS

⏪🏀”A+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Davidson Wildcats -2.0
(Spread went from -1.5 to -2.0 despite Buffalo receiving 94% of public bets and 75% of the money).
⚠️💲Smart Money detected coming in on Loyola-Chicago ATS

⏪🏀”A+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Air Force Falcons +8.5
(Spread went from +10.5 to +8.5 despite Wyoming receiving 61% of public bets and 72% of the money).
💲Smart Money detected coming in on Air Force ATS

⏪🏀”A” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Bowling Green Falcons +6.0
(Spread went from +6.5 to +6.0 despite Kent State receiving 75% of public bets and 81% of the money).

⏪🏀”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Florida Gulf Coast Eagles -3.0
(Spread went from -2.5 to -3.0 despite Jacksonville receiving 42% of public bets and 64% of the money).
⚠️💲Smart Money detected coming in on Jacksonville ATS

⏪🏀”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of BYU Cougars -3.0
(Spread went from -2.5 to -3.0 despite Kansas receiving 67% of public bets and 62% of the money).

⏪🏀”B+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of UConn Huskies -8.5
(Spread went from -7.5 to -8.5 despite Villanova receiving 54% of public bets and 67% of the money).

Introducing the Kelly Criterion Section

I’m adding a new feature to my daily report for paid subscribers—The Kelly Criterion Section—designed to optimize bankroll management and maximize long-term profitability.

This section will break down suggested bet sizing using the Kelly Criterion, a mathematical formula that determines the ideal wager based on an edge and the odds offered. But we’re taking it a step further—our suggested bets will be based on a powerful Scores Predictor, which runs 10,000 game simulations using an advanced formula that factors in 80+ key parameters from historical data.

What to Expect:
✅ Kelly-Adjusted Bet Sizing – Suggested wager sizes based on calculated edge
✅ Scores Predictor Integration – Using data-driven projections to refine betting decisions
✅ Risk Management Insights – Avoiding overexposure while maximizing value

By combining precision-driven score predictions with the Kelly Criterion, we ensure that our bets aren’t just smart, but also optimally sized for bankroll growth. This approach provides an edge over the market and a structured way to manage risk while capitalizing on profitable opportunities.

For example, let’s say your typical bet size is 10$, the number in the middle column indicates what fraction you should bet on this given game.

Let’s take the first game for example: The bet would be 2.10$ on Bellarmine ML (10$*0.21=2.10$) would pay out 5.38$

This is a perfect mix between bankroll management and sprinkling here and there on underdogs that won our simulations for bigger rewards.

We will track every day’s record starting with a 100$ bankroll and see where it leads us.

Here’s today’s slate⬇️

Thanks for reading today’s insights!

If you found value in this post, don’t forget to like and share my page with fellow sports enthusiasts. Let’s continue turning data into dollars, one game at a time.

See you tomorrow with more winning systems 🏆

📊Active Systems for February 17th

Posted on February 17, 2025February 17, 2025 by Dominic Tremblay

Virginia’s season has been a mix of highs and lows, with stretches of strong play interspersed with frustrating losses. The Cavaliers opened the year with a 5-2 record, dropping early matchups to Tennessee and St. John’s. A 3-3 stretch followed, featuring wins over Bethune-Cookman, NC State, and American, but also losses to Florida, SMU, and Memphis. Things took a downward turn with a five-game losing streak that included two defeats to Louisville, as well as setbacks against Cal, Stanford, and SMU. However, Virginia has since steadied the ship, winning four of its last six games, with victories over Boston College, Miami, Pitt, and Georgia Tech, while falling to Notre Dame and Virginia Tech.

In their most recent outing against Virginia Tech, the Cavaliers carried a seven-point lead into halftime before being outscored 37-33 in the second half. Despite the late push from the Hokies, Virginia held on for a solid 73-70 road victory. Isaac McKneely led the way with 22 points, adding three rebounds, one assist, and one steal. Anthony Robinson provided a key spark off the bench with 15 points and seven boards in just 18 minutes, while Dai Dai Ames contributed 11 points and five assists in 36 minutes of action.

Defensive play has long been a hallmark of Virginia basketball, and this season has been no different. Last year, the Cavaliers led the ACC in first-half defense, allowing just 25.9 points per game, far below the league average of 33.5. Their overall defensive numbers were just as impressive, surrendering only 59.2 points per game, the second-best mark in the country. That kind of defensive efficiency continues to be a key factor, and it’s no surprise that the home team has won five of Duke’s last six games. With their methodical pace and ability to limit opponents’ scoring opportunities, Virginia finds itself in another favorable spot.

🏀Duke is 0-10 ATS in road games that features totals below 137.5
❓This trend suggests that when Duke plays slower-paced road games, they consistently fail to cover. This likely happens because Duke thrives in higher-tempo matchups where their athleticism and scoring depth can shine. In slower, more defensive-oriented games, they struggle to create separation, making it harder for them to cover spreads.

📊ACC underdogs of more than 12.5 points are 48-28 ATS (63.2%) when playing another ACC team since 2021.
❓This trend shows how conference familiarity reduces the talent gap, teams are more prepared for their opponents, and rivalry factors or motivation to upset a conference foe often keep games closer than expected.

📊Virginia is 10-3-1 ATS since 2021 after being an underdog in their previous game when they have 8 or more losses during the season.
❓This trend shows that when Virginia is struggling in the standings but was recently an underdog, they tend to bounce back and cover. This likely works because Virginia’s disciplined style under Tony Bennett allows them to adjust and respond well to adversity, making them a strong bet in these specific bounce-back spots.

🕢8:00 PM EST

📈Virginia is 2-0 ATS when their spread is between +12.5 & +16.5

⏪”A” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Virginia Cavaliers +13.5
(Spread went from +15.5 to +13.5 despite Duke receiving 78% of public bets and 79% of the money).
💲Smart Money detected coming in on Virginia ATS

✅Active on Virginia Cavaliers +13.5

New Orleans has struggled mightily this season, particularly on its home floor, where it remains winless deep into the campaign. The Privateers have dropped 11 straight games at Lakefront Arena against non-AP-ranked opponents, a troubling trend that underscores their inability to defend their home court. Their struggles extend beyond just location-based trends, New Orleans has lost the first half in five of its last six games against unranked teams, frequently finding itself in early deficits that have been difficult to overcome.

The numbers paint an even bleaker picture. New Orleans ranks second-to-last among all Division I teams in net rating this season (-21.0) and sits at 361st in point differential per game (-14.7). Those marks reflect a team that has been thoroughly outmatched on both ends of the floor, showing little resistance defensively while lacking efficiency on offense.

On the other side, Nicholls State has performed well in conference play, winning 12 of its last 13 night games against Southland opponents. The Colonels play at an aggressive pace, ranking 43rd in the country in field goal attempts per game (62.1), and they take care of the ball, ranking 46th in turnover percentage (13.2%). However, they enter this matchup off a pair of disappointing results against Northwestern State and Southeastern Louisiana, which raises some concerns as they hit the road.

That said, New Orleans isn’t offering much reason for optimism. With just four wins all season and their last victory coming over a month ago, the Privateers have been stuck in a freefall. Nicholls has also dominated this series, winning eight of the last 10 meetings, and boasts a profitable 13-8-2 ATS record on the year. While the number isn’t the most appealing on a loaded Monday slate, the matchup suggests a clear edge for the road team.

🏀Nicholls is 9-0 ATS as a favorite with totals below 151.5 when coming off a game as an underdog. They are also 9-0 SU in this spot, winning by an average of +10.9 points per game.
❓This trend suggests they thrive in lower-scoring matchups when transitioning from an underdog to a favorite. This likely works because their style of play suits slower-paced games, and they gain confidence after playing tougher competition as an underdog. Once favored in a controlled setting, they assert themselves and win convincingly.

📊New Orleans (UNO) is 0-8 ATS as a home underdog after making at least six three-pointers in their previous game. They are also 0-8 SU in this situation, losing by an average of -16.5 points per game.
❓This trend shows that despite a solid previous shooting performance, they struggle badly when playing as a home underdog. This likely happens because their three-point shooting isn’t a reliable factor, if they hit six or more threes in one game, it might not be sustainable, and they regress against tougher competition.

🕢7:30 PM EST

📈Nicholls is 10-3 ATS on the road.

📉UNO is 2-6 ATS as an home underdog.

⏪”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Nicholls Colonels -9.5
(Spread went from -8.5 to -9.5 despite New Orleans receiving 66% of public bets and 64% of the money).
💲Smart Money detected coming in on

✅Active on Nicholls Colonels -9.5

🏀Lamar is 12-0 to the UNDER with rest, when they are not double-digit underdogs and are coming off a game with 35+ rebounds. These games have gone UNDER by an average of -15.1 points per game.
❓This trend indicates that Lamar tends to play lower-scoring games when they are well-rested and coming off a solid rebounding performance, provided they are not heavy underdogs. This likely works because strong rebounding helps control the tempo of the game and prevents fast breaks, leading to fewer scoring opportunities.

📊Northwestern State is 9-0 to the UNDER when the total is greater than 129.5. These games are going UNDER by an average margin of -8.8 points per game.
❓This suggests that despite the expectation of higher scoring, Northwestern State plays at a slower pace, with either strong defensive play or a lack of offensive efficiency, which keeps the game total lower than predicted.

🕢7:30 PM EST

📉Northwestern is 1-7-1 to the UNDER with less than 4 days of rest.

✅Active on Lamar Cardinals @ Northwestern State Demons UNDER 132.5

🏀 ARIZONA has hit the OVER in 15 straight games following a game in which they scored fewer than seven delta points with a total under 146.5. (vs Baylor)

🏀 ALABAMA A&M is 0-14 ATS following a game in which they shot better than 39% from the field. (vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff)

🏀 DUKE has hit the UNDER in 13 straight games following a game in which they allowed more than 67 points. (vs Virginia)

🏀 TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI is 12-0 ATS as a home favorite of fewer than 11 points when the total is below 151.5. (vs Houston Christian)

🏀 MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE has hit the OVER in 12 of the last 13 games against teams playing with fewer than six days of rest, following a game in which they shot better than 44.3% and made multiple three-pointers. (vs Alabama State)

🏀 MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE has hit the UNDER in 11 straight games when the total is greater than 143.5 and they are facing a team shooting better than 44.8% from the field. (vs Howard)

🏀 COPPIN STATE has hit the UNDER in 10 straight games against teams they covered the spread against in a previous meeting, when the total is below 144.5 and they are coming off a loss of 10 or more points. (vs South Carolina State)

🏀 FLORIDA A&M has hit the UNDER in 10 of the last 11 games when the spread is within three points of pick’em and the total is below 144.5. (vs Alabama State)

🏀 ALABAMA A&M has hit the OVER in eight straight games when the spread is below 2.5 points, following a win in which they shot less than 48%. (vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff)

🏀 DETROIT MERCY is 9-0 ATS when the total is lower than their previous game and they are on an ATS losing streak of two or more games. (vs Oakland)

🏀 GRAMBLING STATE is 0-8 ATS as a favorite of more than 4.5 points. (vs Prairie View A&M)

🏀 KANSAS STATE is 0-6 ATS as a road underdog of fewer than 3.5 points following a game in which they made fewer than nine three-pointers. (vs Utah)

⏪🏀”A+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of N. Carolina Central Eagles -7.5
(Spread went from -6.5 to -7.5 despite Morgan St. receiving 96% of public bets and 85% of the money).

⏪🏀”A” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Virginia Cavaliers +13.5
(Spread went from +15.5 to +13.5 despite Duke receiving 78% of public bets and 79% of the money).
💲Smart Money detected coming in on Virginia ATS

⏪🏀”A” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Bucknell Bisons -6.5
(Spread went from -4.5 to -6.5 despite Lehigh receiving 92% of public bets and 78% of the money).

⏪🏀”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Nicholls Colonels -9.5
(Spread went from -8.5 to -9.5 despite New Orleans receiving 66% of public bets and 64% of the money).

⏪🏀”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of McNeese Cowboys -8.5
(Spread went from -7.5 to -8.5 despite S. Louisiana receiving 69% of public bets and 69% of the money).
⚠️💲Smart Money detected coming in on S. Louisiana ATS

⏪🏀”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of Baylor Bears ML
(Line went from -115 to -120 despite Arizona receiving 36% of public bets and 73% of the money).

🔪GRAMBLING ST. -8.0 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.

🔪NC CENT./MORGAN ST. u159.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.

Thanks for reading today’s insights!

If you found value in this post, don’t forget to like and share my page with fellow sports enthusiasts. Let’s continue turning data into dollars, one game at a time.

See you tomorrow with more winning systems 🏆

📊Active Systems for February 15th

Posted on February 15, 2025February 15, 2025 by Dominic Tremblay

NCAA basketball: How NIL affects NBA decisions, transfer portal, more

🏀Purdue is 13-0 to the OVER as a home favorite of less than 8 points when the total exceeds 133.5. They are going OVER those games by an average of +11.2 points per game.

📊Wisconsin is 11-0 to the OVER as an underdog against teams averaging more than 15.6 assists per game. They are going OVER those games by an average of +14.0 points per game.

📊Wisconsin is 16-0 to the OVER against teams on fewer than five days of rest, when the spread is greater than -8.5, the total is below 162.5, and they’re coming off a game where they scored fewer than 80 points. They are going OVER those games by an average of +10.8 points per game.

🕢1:00 PM EST

⏪”B+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the OVER 150.5
(Total went from 145.5 to 150.5 despite Under receiving 55% of public bets and 52% of the money).

✅Active on Wisconsin Badgers @ Purdue Boilermakers OVER 150.5

🏀Texas Tech is 7-0 ATS as a favorite of less than 10.5 points when the total is greater than 147.5. They are winning by an average of +13.7 points per game in this spot.

📊Oklahoma State is 0-8 ATS as a rested underdog after a game where they made fewer than 8 three-pointers. They lost all 8 games in this spot by an average of -17.0 points per game.

🕢3:00 PM EST

⏪”B” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Texas Tech Raiders -9.5
(Spread went from -10.5 to -9.0 despite OKC State receiving 60% of public bets and 47% of the money).
💲Smart Money detected coming in on Texas Tech ATS

✅Active on Texas Tech Red Raiders -9.0

🏀P12 home favorites with a spread between -2.0 & -15.5 are 18-0 ATS when the total is below 152.5

🕢4:00 PM EST & 6:00 PM EST

📈USC are 2-0 ATS vs teams between .500 & .650

📈Oregon State are 13-2 ATS at home and 11-1 ATS as home favorites.

📈Oregon State won previous matchup by 36 points.

✅Active on USC -7.5 & Oregon State -13.0

🏀BIGS underdogs that scored less than the league average playing on more rest than their opponent are 15-1 ATS since 2020 when their opponent are in the same conference and failed to cover in their previous game on the road.

🕢6:00 PM EST

📈Presbyterian are 8-3 as road underdogs.

📉Longwood are 0-2 ATS when their spread is between -4.5 & -8.5

📉Longwood are 3-7 ATS after less than 4 days off.

✅Active on Presbyterian Blue Hose +5.0

🏀 IDAHO STATE has hit the OVER in 15 straight road games when playing with fewer than 14 days of rest after scoring fewer than 79 points with fewer than six three-pointers made in their previous game. (vs Montana State)

🏀 HOUSTON is 0-14-1 ATS as a favorite of more than 28.5 points after shooting better than 49.2% from the field in their previous game. (vs Arizona)

🏀 KANSAS has hit the UNDER in 14 straight games when the total is greater than 127.5, following a game where they made fewer than nine three-pointers but scored more than 58 points. (vs Utah)

🏀 KENTUCKY WILDCATS are 13-0 ATS as an underdog against teams that allow fewer than 7.4 made three-pointers per game. (vs Texas)

🏀 KANSAS STATE is 12-0 ATS after a win as an underdog against a ranked opponent. (vs BYU)

🏀 WISCONSIN has hit the OVER in 11 straight games as an underdog against teams averaging more than 15.6 assists per game. (vs Purdue)

🏀 FLORIDA GATORS have hit the UNDER in 10 straight games with rest against teams that have failed to cover the spread in back-to-back games. (vs South Carolina)

🏀 FURMAN is 10-0 ATS as a favorite in revenge matchups against teams they previously made seven or more three-pointers against. (vs UNC Greensboro)

🏀 TENNESSEE VOLS are 9-0 ATS as a favorite of more than 29.5 points after allowing more than six made three-pointers in their previous game. (vs Vanderbilt)

🏀 GEORGIA BULLDOGS are 9-0 ATS at home following a game in which they allowed more than 67 points. (vs Missouri)

🏀 TEXAS A&M CORPUS CHRISTI is 9-0 ATS at home on Saturdays when the total is below 157.5. (vs Incarnate Word)

🏀 TEXAS A&M has hit the UNDER in 8 straight games following a game in which they scored fewer than 80 points. (vs Arkansas)

🏀 OKLAHOMA STATE is 0-8 ATS as a rested underdog after making fewer than eight three-pointers in their previous game. (vs Texas Tech)

🏀 AUBURN is 0-8 ATS as an underdog of fewer than 9.5 points against teams that shoot below 50% from the field. (vs Alabama)

🏀 IOWA STATE has hit the UNDER in 8 straight home games when the total is below 145.5. (vs Cincinnati)

🏀 MISSISSIPPI STATE is 0-8 ATS as an underdog with rest against teams they shot better than 42% against in a losing effort. (vs Ole Miss)

🏀 FLORIDA STATE is 0-7 ATS as a home underdog of three or more points. (vs Clemson)

Thanks for reading today’s insights!

If you found value in this post, don’t forget to like and share my page with fellow sports enthusiasts. Let’s continue turning data into dollars, one game at a time.

See you tomorrow with more winning systems 🏆

📊Active Systems for February 14th

Posted on February 14, 2025February 14, 2025 by Dominic Tremblay

🏀 St. Louis is 0-16 ATS as an underdog of fewer than 11.5 points when the total is under 159.5, following a game in which they scored 72 or more points. They are also 0-16 SU in this spot, losing by an average of -15.8 points per game..

📊 Loyola Chicago is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a single-digit favorite against teams averaging more than eight made three-pointers per game when the total is over 131.5. They are also 7-0 SU in this situation, winning by an average of +13.3 points per game.

📊Loyola-Chicago won 12 straight home games when playing at night

🕢7:00 PM EST

📈Loyola-Chicago are 19-1 SU in their last 20 games at home.

📉St. Louis is 1-5 ATS as road underdogs.

📉St. Louis are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played on a Friday.

📉St. Louis are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played in February.

✅Active on Loyola Chicago Ramblers -2.5

🏀MAAC home underdogs are 18-4 ATS when their spread is +3.5 or smaller and the total is set between 130.0 & 150.0 in 2024.

🕢7:00 PM EST

📈Manhattan are 11-3 ATS as underdogs

📈Manhattan are 6-1 ATS when their spread is between +1.0 & +4.5

📈Manhattan are 5-1 ATS vs teams between .500 & .650

💲Smart Money detected coming in on Manhattan

✅Active on Manhattan Jaspers +3.0

🏀Fairfield Stags are 0-7 ATS vs teams off an ATS win who averages over 45.5% in shooting% when the total is below 145.5.

📊Home favorites between -3.0 & -7.5 who covered as road underdogs in their last game facing a team who lost their previous game at home are 19-8 ATS vs conference opponents.

🕢7:00 PM EST

✅Active on Saint Peter’s Peacocks -2.5

🏀 Kent State is 0-15 ATS following a game in which they scored more than 73 points, when the total is greater than 135.5. (vs OHIO)

🏀 Merrimack is 14-0 to the UNDER as a multiple-point favorite. (vs MANH)

🏀 Yale is 13-0 ATS when the spread is under 11.5 and the total is under 155.5, following a game in which they made more than 7 three-pointers on better than 49% shooting. (vs PENN)

🏀 Brown is 10-0 to the UNDER in revenge games against teams they previously shot under 43% from the field against. (vs YALE)

🏀 Niagara is 0-8 ATS as a favorite, following a home game. (vs MSM)

🏀 Fairfield is 0-7 ATS against teams coming off an ATS win, averaging under 45.5% shooting, when the total is under 145.5. (vs SPU)

🏀 Siena is 8-0 to the OVER at home when they have less than eight days of rest. (vs MRST)

🔪WISCONSIN GB +6.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.

🔪OHIO/KENT o146.0 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.

⏪🏀”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Green Bay Phoenix +6.5
(Spread went from +7.5 to +6.5 despite Northern Kentucky -6.5 receiving 65% of public bets and 90% of the money).

⏪🏀”A” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Rider Broncs +5.5
(Spread went from +6.5 to +5.5 despite Iona receiving 90% of public bets and 92% of the money).
💲Smart Money detected coming in on Rider ML

⏪🏀”A” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Quinnipiac Bobcats -4.0
(Spread went from -2.5 to -4.0 despite Sacred Heart receiving 86% of public bets and 86% of the money).

⏪🏀”B” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Niagara Purple Eagles ML
(Moneyline went from -126 to -132 despite Mount St. Mary’s ML receiving 27% of public bets and 61% of the money).

⏪🏀”B” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Pennsylvania +15.0
(Spread went from +17.5 to +15.0 despite Yale -15.5 receiving 59% of public bets and 61% of the money).
💲Smart Money detected coming in on Pennsylvania ATS

Thanks for reading today’s insights!

If you found value in this post, don’t forget to like and share my page with fellow sports enthusiasts. Let’s continue turning data into dollars, one game at a time.

See you tomorrow with more winning systems 🏆

📊Active Systems for February 13th

Posted on February 13, 2025February 13, 2025 by Dominic Tremblay

🏀The Sacramento Kings are 27-4 to the UNDER when they covered a smaller than +2.0 spread in their last game and now playing on no rest with a spread between -11.5 and +5.5

🕢8:00 PM EST

📉Both teams on back-to-back, leading to fatigue and slower pace.

📉Last game was high-scoring, but quick adjustments + fatigue = lower total.

#️⃣Pelicans’ offense ➡️ 110 PPG (23rd) 44.7% FG (24th).

#️⃣Kings weak from three ➡️ 34.4% (25th) limiting explosive runs.

⏪”B+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the UNDER 235.5
(Total went from 240.0 to 235.5 despite the OVER receiving 71% of public bets and 67% of the money).
💲Smart Money detected coming in on the UNDER

✅Active on Sacramento @ New Orleans UNDER 235.0

🏀UNC Wilmington is 16-0 ATS when the total is above 147.5 and they have less than 6 days of rest.

📊Charleston Cougars are 0-14-1 ATS with totals below 152.0 when they have rest in revenge games vs teams they recorded 10 or more turnovers against in a previous meeting.

🕢7:00 PM EST

✅Active on UNC Wilmington -5.5

🏀Montana are 10-0 to the OVER with rest when the total is below 148.0 and they are coming off a win. These games are going over the total by an average of +14.2 points per game.

📊Idaho State are 14-0 to the OVER on the road when they gave less than 14 days of rest and they’re coming off a game in which they recorded less than 79 points and less than 6 threes made. These games have gone over the total by an average of +13.8 points per game.

🕢9:00 PM EST

✅Active on Idaho State @ Montana OVER 146.5

🏀Home favorites with a spread of 8.5+ playing in the Big West are 25-5-1 ATS when the total is set below 159.5. This system is on a 8 game win streak.

🕢11:00 PM EST & 11:59 PM EST

✅Active on UC Irvine -8.5 & Hawaii -11.5

🏀Away underdogs of less than 12 points playing in the USA conference and who lost their last game are 22-5 ATS when the total is set between 136.0 & 164.0. This system is on a 10 game win streak.

🕢9:00 PM EST

✅Active on Florida International +9.5
💲Smart Money detected coming in on Florida Int. ATS

🏀Away underdogs (Campbell) on a 7+ games winning streak are 13-35 ATS when the total is greater than their previous game and they are facing teams that are above 45.5% in shooting%.

🕢7:00 PM EST

✅Active on Northeastern -4.5

🏀 MEMPHIS TIGERS are 0-17 ATS against teams with less than 6 days rest, following an ATS loss in which they committed fewer than 18 turnovers. (vs USFL)

🏀 UTA (ARLINGTON) is 8-0 ATS after an ATS win on the road where they allowed fewer than 70 points. (vs CALB)

🏀 IDAHO STATE is 8-0 ATS after a road game in which they allowed fewer than 75 points. (vs MONT)

🏀 LE MOYNE is 9-0 to the OVER in their last 9 games with totals below 146.5. (vs WAG)

🏀 GEORGIA STATE is 9-0 to the OVER when the total is under 160.5 and the spread is under 16.5. (vs ODU)

🏀 MARYLAND is 0-11 ATS when the spread is within 4 points of a pick ’em and the total is greater than 128.5. (vs NEB)

🔪HOU ROCKETS -1.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.

🔪NOP/SAC u233.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.

🔪UMBC -4.5 & HAWAII -11.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.

🔪BRYANT/NJIT o149.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.

⏪🏀”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Houston Rockets -6.0
(Spread went from -1.5 to -6.0 despite Warriors +6.0 receiving 52% of public bets and 77% of the money).
⚠️Line is back at opening price

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📊Active Systems for February 11th

Posted on February 11, 2025February 11, 2025 by Dominic Tremblay

🏀The Indiana Pacers are 7-0 to the OVER as a rested home underdog against teams they previously defeated.
📊The New York Knicks are 10-4 to the OVER when they play on the road with equal rest.
9 of these games have gone OVER by 8+ points, 4 have gone OVER by 24+ points.
📊The Indiana Pacers are 9-2 to the OVER when they play at home with equal rest.
5 of these games have gone Over by 6+ points.
Pacers are shooting 41% from 3pt in these games.
📊The Indiana Pacers are 15-4 to the OVER in their last 19 games as a dog.
10 of these games have gone Over by 9+ points. Pacers have scored 111+ in 17 of these games. Pacers are 5-0 to the OVER as home underdogs this season.
🚨OVER signal on NYK/IND game

🏀The New York Knicks are 0-10 ATS in revenge games against rested opponents who failed to cover the spread by 10 or more points in their last game.
📊The Indiana Pacers are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS margin of less than -5. Pacers are outscoring opponents 121.1-111.6 in these games. Pacers have scored 119+ in 6 of these games.
📊The Indiana Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs the Knicks.

🏀The Philadelphia 76ers are 1-9 ATS this season as home favorites.
They have failed to cover in 7 straight games in this situation.
📊The Philadelphia 76ers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as a 5+ points favorite.
📊The Toronto Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
📊The Toronto Raptors are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games when on 1 day rest.
Raptors are 7-1-1 ATS in these games when their spread is more than 4 points.

🏀The Phoenix Suns are 14-0 to the UNDER at home when the total is greater than 231.

🏀The Detroit Pistons are 10-0 to the OVER after an ATS loss in which they scored fewer than 0 delta points.

🏀The Chicago Bulls are 7-0 to the OVER as a home underdog following a game in which they committed 16 or more turnovers.

🏀 Kentucky Wildcats are 0-19 ATS against teams with less than seven days of rest when coming off a game in which their DPA was worse than -4.5 (expected points allowed) and they allowed less than 37% shooting.

🏀 Tennessee Volunteers are 15-0 to the UNDER when they are no more than a 22.5-point favorite and made nine or more three-pointers in their previous game.

🏀 Kentucky Wildcats are 0-13-1 ATS with spreads between three points of PK when the total is below 164.5 and they shot over 45.5% from the field in their last game.

🏀 Texas A&M is 13-0 ATS as a home favorite of fewer than 25.5 points following an ATS win by four or more points in which they recorded at least 11 turnovers.

🏀 Creighton has covered 12 straight games, going 12-0 ATS.

🏀 Cincinnati is 11-0 to the UNDER as a favorite of more than -27.5 following a game in which they made at least five three-pointers.

🏀 Kansas State is 11-0 ATS following a win as an underdog against ranked opponents.

🏀 Mississippi State is 0-11 ATS at home when they are not at a rest disadvantage and are coming off a win in which their ATR was below 1.8 while making more than four three-pointers.

🏀 Florida Gators are 8-0 ATS following a game in which they made at least nine three-pointers.

🏀 Oregon is 0-9 ATS as a home favorite of fewer than 12.5 points.

🏀 BYU is 0-12 ATS with spreads within three points of PK when the total is under 156.5.

🏀 Michigan has failed to cover in seven straight games, going 0-7 ATS.

🔪PHX SUNS +4.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.

🔪PHI/TOR u224.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.

🔪AIR FORCE +13.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.

🔪MARQ/DEPAUL u142.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.

⏪🏀”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Chicago Bulls +4.5
(Bulls spread went from +3.0 to +4.5 despite receiving 64% of public bets and 75% of money).

Summary of Best Bets

✅ NYK/IND OVER 238.5
✅ Indiana Pacers +2.5
✅ Toronto Raptors +9.5
✅ Chicago Bulls +4.5

Thanks for reading today’s insights!

If you found value in this post, don’t forget to like and share my page with fellow sports enthusiasts. Let’s continue turning data into dollars, one game at a time.

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📊Active Systems for February 10th

Posted on February 10, 2025February 10, 2025 by Dominic Tremblay

🏀The Washington Wizards are 0-8 ATS vs non-conference opponents following a game vs a conference opponent.

📊Favorites with a spread between -9.5 & -11.5 and the moneyline below -430 are 39-15 ATS when the total is above 224.0

🕢7:00 PM EST

⏪🏀”B+” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the San Antonio Spurs -11.0
(Spread went from -9.5 to -11.5 despite Wizards +11.5 receiving 89% of public bets and 56% of the money).

✅Active on San Antonio Spurs ATS

🏀The Boston Celtics are 0-22 ATS with totals above 210.5 coming off an ATS win in which they shot above 70% from the free throw line.

📊The Boston Celtics are 1-1-18 ATS after they won and covered in their previous game.

🕢7:30 PM EST

⏪🏀”B-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Miami Heat +5.0
(Spread went from +5.5 to +5.0 despite Boston +5.0 receiving 81% of public bets and 64% of the money).
💲Smart Money detected coming in on Miami ATS

✅Active on Miami Heat ATS

🏀The Atlanta Hawks are 0-12 ATS as a road underdog against rested opponents following a road win. In this scenario, they are also 0-12 SU losing by an average of -14.2 points per game.

📊The Orlando Magic are 7-0 ATS as a home favorite of fewer than 7 points after failing to cover the spread in back-to-back games. In this situation, they are also 7-0 SU winning by an average margin of +19.7 points per game.

🕢7:00 PM EST

✅Active on Orlando Magic ATS

🏀The Golden State Warriors are 11-0 ATS with a spread greater than -18.5 following a double-digit win in which they trailed by more than three points at halftime. In this spot, Golden State is also 11-0 SU winning by an average of +14.5 points per game.

📊The Milwaukee Bucks are 0-11 ATS as an underdog of fewer than 10.5 points when playing on less than seven days’ rest after a home game where they exceeded their expected points by more than 12 points.

🕢8:00 PM EST

✅Active on Golden State Warriors ATS

🏀Houston Christian are 8-0 ATS at home following a game in which they shot for less than 52% from three.

📊Houston Christian are the best ATS team this season at 17-4-1 ATS.

🕢8:00 PM EST

✅Active on Houston Christian Huskies ATS

🏀Houston is 10-0 ATS when the total is greater than 128.5, following a game against a conference opponent where they scored fewer than 70 points and committed fewer than 12 turnovers. In this scenario, Houston is also 10-0 SU winning by an average of +23.3 points per game.

📊Baylor is 0-13 ATS as an underdog against teams averaging less than 51% shooting, coming off a game as a favorite. In this spot, Baylor is also 0-13 SU losing by an average margin of -9.6 points per game.

🕢9:00 PM EST

⚠️Smart Money detected coming in on Baylor ATS

✅Active on Houston Cougars ATS

🏀The Minnesota Timberwolves are 14-0 ATS with rest in non-division regular-season road games when avenging a loss of fewer than eight points.

🏀The Charlotte Hornets are 10-0 ATS without rest when coming off a loss in which they shot better than 39%.

🏀The Denver Nuggets are 9-0 ATS as a home favorite with fewer than two days of rest against teams that scored fewer than 100 points in their previous game, winning by an average of 17.7 points per game.

🏀The Oklahoma City Thunder are 9-0 ATS at home against teams they previously shot better than 48% against and forced more than 13 turnovers.

🏀The Sacramento Kings are 0-8-1 ATS in road games with totals of 230 or higher. The Los Angeles Lakers are 7-0-1 to the over as a double-digit favorite against conference opponents.

🏀The Milwaukee Bucks are 7-0 to the OVER following a win as an underdog.

🏀Baylor is 0-13 ATS as an underdog against teams that average less than 51% shooting after playing a game as a favorite.

🏀Alcorn State is 11-0 ATS against teams allowing more than 43% shooting when playing on fewer than four days of rest.

🏀Howard is 11-0 to the OVER in games with totals greater than 143.5.

🏀Campbell is 10-0 to the UNDER at home when the spread is less than 4.5.

🏀North Carolina is 0-10 ATS as an underdog on fewer than seven days of rest after shooting better than 46% as a favorite in their previous game.

🏀Nevada is 10-0 ATS following a game in which they recorded fewer than nine turnovers and shot better than 45% from the field.

🏀Florida A&M is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games.

🏀Nicholls State is 8-0 ATS as a favorite when the total is below 142.5.

🔪SAC KINGS -1 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.

🔪MIN/CLE o230.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.

🔪CLEMSON -4.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.

🔪BETH./TXSO o142.5 is receiving the most sharp action from respected bettors.

⏪🏀”A-” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the OKC Thunder -17.0
(Spread went from -14.0 to -17.0 despite Pelicans +17.0 receiving 72% of public bets and 46% of the money).

⏪🏀”B” Grade Reverse Line Movement in favor of the Sacramento Kings ML
(Moneyline went from +106 to -105 despite Mavericks ML receiving 79% of public bets and 64% of the money).

IN SHORT⬇️

🏀 Miami Heat +5.0

System: Boston is 0-22 ATS with totals above 210.5 after an ATS win with 70%+ FT shooting.
RLM: “B-” Grade RLM favoring Miami, despite public bets heavily on Boston.
Smart Money: Detected on Miami.
Pick: Miami Heat +5.0

🏀 San Antonio Spurs -11.0

System: Favorites between -9.5 & -11.5 with ML below -430 are 39-15 ATS when the total is above 224.
RLM: “B+” Grade RLM favoring Spurs despite public bets on Wizards.
Pick: San Antonio Spurs -11.0

🏀 Orlando Magic -6.5

System: Orlando is 7-0 ATS as a home favorite <7 points after failing to cover twice.
System: Hawks are 0-12 ATS as a road underdog against rested teams after a road win.
Pick: Orlando Magic -6.5

🏀 Golden State Warriors –7.0

System: GSW is 11-0 ATS after a double-digit win where they trailed at halftime.
System: Bucks are 0-11 ATS in this scenario.
Pick: Golden State Warriors -7.0

🏀 Houston Christian -4.5

System: Houston Christian is 8-0 ATS at home after shooting <52% from three.
System: Best ATS team this season (17-4-1 ATS).
Pick: Houston Christian -4.5

🏀 Houston Cougars -7.5

System: Houston is 10-0 ATS in this spot, winning by +23.3 PPG.
System: Baylor is 0-13 ATS as an underdog in this scenario, losing by -9.6 PPG.
Pick: Houston Cougars -7.5

🏀Oklahoma City Thunder -17.0

RLM: “A-” Grade RLM favoring OKC, line moved from -14.0 to -17.0 despite public bets on Pelicans.
System: OKC is 9-0 ATS at home against teams they previously shot >48% against.
Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -17.0

🏀 Sacramento Kings ML

RLM: “B” Grade RLM favoring Kings ML, moving from +106 to -105 despite public bets on Mavs.
Sharp Action: Kings ML receiving the most respected bets.
System: Kings are 0-8-1 ATS in road games with totals of 230+, but the market suggests value in their ML.
Pick: Sacramento Kings ML

🏀 Minnesota/Cleveland Over 230.5

Sharp Action: Over receiving the most respected bets.
Pick: MIN/CLE Over 230.5
Signal: Positive signal on the OVER

Thanks for reading today’s insights!

If you found value in this post, don’t forget to like and share my page with fellow sports enthusiasts. Let’s continue turning data into dollars, one game at a time.

See you tomorrow with more winning systems 🏆