Stats updated through June 2, 2024
As the MLB season progresses, several intriguing trends have emerged, highlighting unique performances and patterns among various teams. These stats provide a fascinating lens through which to view the ongoing dynamics of the league.
Our matchup pages are an excellent tool for you to dive into each MLB matchup. We will still be providing our trends, now only available to our ‘Baller Access‘ subscribers.
Most/Least Profitable Teams
As usual, the Yankees, Phillies, and Dodgers dominate the headlines, but the AL Central has been turning heads this season. The Guardians and Royals have emerged as the two of the most profitable teams in the league. Seth Lugo has been spectacular, making an early case for the Cy Young Award. While the Guardians’ metrics aren’t eye-popping, they rank third in the league in runs scored.
The biggest surprise of all? The Nationals. With an average betting line of +149 this season, they are hovering around .500 and overachieving, making money for their bettors. Trevor Williams has been incredible and consistent, with the Nationals going 9-2 when he starts.
The White Sox have been an obvious fade, but what about the Astros? They have gotten off to a slow start and are currently seven games under .500. They’ve been the most profitable team to fade, as the market still remains bullish on them. They also got off to a slow start last season, so there’s still a chance for them to turn it around.
The Marlins have been a great fade overall, especially when they face lefty starting pitchers. They are 2-18 straight up in this situation, making this our favorite trend of the season.
Best Over Teams/Best Under Teams
The Brewers’ offense has been hot this season, leading the league in overs. The Tigers have gone 12-3 to the over in their last 15 games. Surprisingly, the Marlins find themselves on this list due to their defense and pitching ranking at the bottom of the league.
The Rangers, Braves, and Astros have suffered from high market expectations and underperforming offenses. The Astros have gone under in eight straight games. In late April and early May, the Braves had a stretch where they went 20-1 to the under. The Rangers have gone 9-2-1 to the under in their last 12 games, while the Mariners are 7-2 to the under in their last nine.
Best/Worst Starters
To clarify, these statistics represent the team’s full game record and ROI when these respective pitchers start the game, so they are not fully indicative of the pitchers’ individual performances. For instance, Brayan Bello, despite a 4.18 ERA, is one of the names on the list of profitable starters. On the other hand, poor Reese Olson is pitching well, but the Tigers’ bullpen and offense haven’t been able to provide him with any support.
There have been dominant performances from some unexpected names on this list. As mentioned earlier, T. Williams has been the most profitable pitcher this year. Additionally, two Royals pitchers, Lugo and Alec Marsh, have made the list.
Meanwhile, there are some familiar and expected names, such as Yusei Kikuchi as a starter to fade. Andrew Heaney just picked up his first win on May 28 and is looking to turn around his rough start, but he has been one of the most profitable starters to play against. Similarly, Trevor Rogers, Hunter Brown, and Mike Soroka have been automatic fades this season.
Overrated pitchers/Underrated Pitchers
To identify potential/negative regression, here are a few tips on what to analyze:
- Compare FIP to ERA: A large discrepancy suggests likely regression. Lower FIP than ERA indicates positive regression; higher FIP than ERA indicates negative regression.
- Check BABIP: Significant deviations from league average or career norms indicate luck and potential regression.
- Evaluate LOB% and HR/FB Ratios: Extreme values suggest potential regression to the mean.
- Monitor K% and BB%: Stability in these metrics indicates reliability in performance prediction.
Astros rookie Spencer Arrighetti might be a player to watch as the season progresses. Although he has had a rough start, underlying metrics suggest that bad luck has played a significant role. Cole Ragan’s FIP is excellent, but his ERA has suffered from two bad starts – there were two starts where he gave up seven runs.
On the other hand, advanced metrics indicate that Lugo is a candidate for negative regression. James Paxton, currently boasting a 5-0 win-loss record, is pitcher that may be over-valued playing for the high-profile Dodgers, who may face regression. Ronel Blanco may be heading that direction already after enduring his worst start of the season by giving up four runs.
Interesting Trends of the Year
- Marlins are 2-18 SU against left-handed pitchers this season.
- Mets: 17-8 to the over on the road, 20-12 to the under at home
- Giants: 19-9-1 to the over on the road, 17-11-1 to the under at home
- Marlins: 22-8 to the over at home (13-3 to the over run), 17-10-1 to the under on the road
- Guardians: 20-6 home record
- Angels: 7-21 home record (while they are 14-15 SU on the road)
- Phillies: 19-2 run at home (23-8 for the season at home)
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