We have three games hosted by bottom 500 teams:
LVA @ IND | 6:00 PM CT
LAS @ CON | 5:00 PM ET
SEA @ CHI | 7:30 PM CT
The Fever just played, and lost, back to back games against the Liberty – split by the All-Star game. Both Indiana and their opponent, Las Vegas, have been beaten by the same thing: Guards. In their L10 games, each of these squads have surrendered Top 3 opposing guard FGA. The Aces have been by far the worst in this regard, allowing 44.3 OPP Guard FGA per game, which continued on from The Dream as Gray and Canada combined for 29 FGA. Other success has been Paige notching 23 FGA, Sabrina with 23, Mitchell with 18 and Sykes with 15 in this span; This is pretty much all of the high volume guards, as the other teams to face them were CON (x2), GSV and PHX.
Kelsey Mitchell has notched 20+ Pts in 5 straight meetings against Las Vegas, while sinking 3+ 3PM in every meeting since the start of last season. Aari McDonald has also had The Aces’ number, with 16 & 23 points last season while being on The Sparks. Last game, McDonald also commanded control of the offense with 6 assists off of 13 potentials – her highest count since she faced Las Vegas
On Aces’ side we’ve seen Jackie Young have potentially her lowest point prop (13.5) since May, yet her on-ball usage hasn’t actually changed much. Young has now lead the team in potential assists in three straight games, and is over her 17.5 PA mark in 11/14 games with 28+ minutes.
Can’t talk about these two without mentioning A’ja Wilson, who has taken complete command of the offense similar to her unanimous 2024 MVP run. A’ja has averaged 31.7 PPG across her last 3 games, along with covering this in 5/6 total meetings since start of last season. Makes sense, as A’ja is currently the best Post Up player in the league, where Indiana is allowing the most points to this season.
The Fever did like using Boston to bring A’ja in the high Pick-and-Roll, which generated super low rebound marks for A’ja with just 5 per contest. Boston being caught up also freed up Natasha Howard to operate inside.
Our next game is Sparks against Connecticut, which features the two worst rated defenses in July. The Sun’s struggles have been their interior defense, giving up 42 PITP per game this month. The leaders in PITP this month against CON (5 GP) have been:
– (PF) Natasha Howard (16 PITP, 18 Pts)
– (SF) Rickea Jackson (16 PITP, 19 Pts) | (PF) Hamby (14 PITP, 17 Pts)
– (SG) Kelsey Mitchell (12 PITP, 20 Pts)
– (C) Magbegor (11 PITP, 13.5 PPG) | (SF) Williams (11 PITP, 19.5 PPG)
The best individual team was The Sparks, who had 50 PITP right before the ASB. Spotlight is on Rickea Jackson, whose been on a scoring tear in her last 5 games this month, producing 18.4 PPG after back-to-back 20 point games against Washington. Jackson has averaged 8 PITP per game – 2nd most on the team behind Hamby at 12.9. So far, players that average >6 PITP per game are 13-3 to their or Rickea’s line in their last 5 matchups (they all scored double digits).
Being bad at everything, which is the nature of this Connecticut team, includes being poor at rebounding. Because Tina Charles has commanded so much of the shot volume, a large chunk of this rebounding is going to opposing guards (23.8, 13th). Courtney Williams with 9 and Caitlin Clark with 8 have led this group, which marks two Sheldon defenders. This was Plum last game, who secured just 1 rebound which came in the first three minutes, and may defer too many chances to back.
Because of the poor rim protection, these two teams also allow the highest opposing FG% – being the only two to give up >46%. CON has actually given up the lowest 3P%, which just reinforces how bad they are inside, yet The Sparks have surrendered the 2nd highest shooting percentage from deep at 36%.
The CON offense saw the best game from Saniya Rivers all season with a career-high 20 points along with 38.7 fantasy points. Her usage may thin a bit here, as Mabrey is set to return after hyperextending her knee, yet likely to play on a heavy minutes restriction. The Sparks were adamant on doubling Tina Charles on her Post Up attempts, which led to her low volume despite the good minutes against this soft defense.
I’m shocked this Sparks scheme did not result in more success from Olivia Nelson-Ododa, as the non-doubled big option. However, Morrow did have 11 shots (10 Pts) in her 22 minutes of action, so likely just a hot hand situation. One of these two will need to generate inside action if Connecticut is looking to keep this game close.
Seattle takes on Chicago, who will remain home throughout the weekend. Chicago has had a tough stretch recently, facing Minnesota in 3 of their last 4 games, along with losing their last 2 by 20+ Pts. The notable factor was Ariel Atkins being out for the latter two do to a foot injury. She already is ruled out for this game against Seattle.
The Seattle Storm have given up the most rebounds to opposing starters in their L10 games at 29.7, notably as they are strong enough offensively to generate high opposing starter minutes. Almost all of this action is at the rim, mostly due to the low usage Ezi Magbegor. The Wings just notched 48 rebounds, with Yueru securing 10 in just 22 minutes, while The Mystics got 36 themselves behind a combined 17 from Austin/Iriafen.
These two teams haven’t met yet this season, yet it is going to be a tough day for Seattle if they can’t keep Reese and Cardoso off the glass. Granted, the big duo can also thrive through traditional methods, as SEA is also allowing the 2nd most OPP PITP in their L10 games. Reese’s primary passing target this season has been her fellow big in Cardoso, who has shot just 3/11 and 4/12 in Chicago’s last two games.
Skylar Diggins was out last game due to personal reasons, yet is not on the injury report today. Team is hopeful for her return. The Storm just lost to Dallas by 24 points without her, which makes sense given their season on/off splits:
– With Diggins ON: 105.6 ORTG, 96.1 DRTG, 9.5 NETRTG (best)
– With Diggins OFF: 82.1 ORTG, 103.2 DRTG, -21.2 NETRTG (worst)
Pretty astonishing how much of an X-Factor she is on both ends of the floor, due to both IQ and intensity. Her return would be crucial, as you typically have the most success attacking Chicago from the perimeter, to avoid going through their massive frontcourt. CHI has ranked in the bottom 3 at limiting both OPP 3PA and OPP APG.
Williams notched 8 assists despite the massive loss vs Dallas in the absence of Diggins, and could have another great day from drive-and-kick play.