The All Star Break is about to begin, but not until these final five games are over with. The schedule for tomorrow is here:
ATL @ CHI | 11 AM CT
PHX @ MIN | 12 PM CT
GSV @ SEA | 2 PM CT
IND @ NYL | 6:30 CT
LVA @ DAL | 7 CT
Let’s start in Chicago, which is a team that has certainly been improving it’s play, yet will be without both Angel Reese and Atkins for Wednesday. Big problem, as these two lead the team in usage over Chicago’s last 10 games while also dominating their minutes. Elizabeth Williams has played the most minutes without this duo (nor Vandersloot), yet Onyenwere leads in USG at 24.5%, yet a majority of these rotational players land between 17-25%. Banham is likely to have full command of the offense here, with some minutes from Van Lith as well.
Cardoso has hauled in a quarter of the team’s defensive rebounds in the last 30 days with Reese off the court, no longer having to defer to anyone. Last time Chicago faced ATL, Reese notched 19 rebounds. Yueru, Jonquel and Austin also have notched a double-double against The Dream in their last 10 games.
Rhyne Howard is going to miss at least all of July as well, but Atlanta has enough pieces to recoup the losses here. Chicago in their L10 games is the 3rd worst DRTG, notably due to allowing the most transition points (and most off their turnovers). Jordin Canada currently leads the team in percentage of points coming from fastbreak, making up a quarter of her production.
Think what is most impressive from Canada has been her pure passing domination, averaging 7.2 APG across her last 5 games; She has notched 10 (Lynx), 19, 13, 17 and 22 potentials in these games as well. CHI is ranking 10th in OPP APG amidst their defensive struggles, and Canada’s top targets this season (all tied at 17) are Gray, Jones and Griner. Canada also leads this team in FGA/30 with Rhyne off the court (12.3), which somehow correlates to her overall passing success as well, as she has 5+ assists in every game with 12+ FGA since the start of last season.
Chicago has typically forced all action away from the rim with Cardoso in the lineup, which is likely to remain true with Williams taking Reese’s place. Slow feet there with good shot blocking ability, would expect a lot of pullup jump shots. Allisha Gray has averaged just 6 3PA per 30 with Rhyne off this season, yet threes did make up 27 of her 44 total shots in this sample.
Gray has also averaged 6.2 RPG in games with >28min without Howard since the beginning of last season, with 9.5 per game this year. It’s an odd correlation, yet CHI does allow the 3rd most rebounds to Forwards in their L10 games, while I have also tracked frequent success from opposing 3/4s (Onye/Reese defenders):
– Citron 8 (Onye) & Iriafen 10 (Reese)
– James 4 (Onye) & Geiselsoder 7 (Reese, 16min)
– Court 8 (Onye) & Collier 8 (Reese, 16 chances)
– Court 8 (Onye) & Collier 7 (Reese)
The ragtag Phoenix team is taking on The Lynx in Minnesota. These two faced off just a week ago, where Alyssa Thomas exploded for a career-high of 29 points. The three games that Phoenix have played without both Sabally and Copper – who remain out Wednesday – have been three miraculous victories. These victories included a 30 point domination over Dallas (15 Ast), a close win over Minnesota (29 Pts), and a road victory over GSV in Ballhalla (17p-11r Double-Double).
AT MVP campaign is building, and this game against Napheesa Collier could level the playing field as we enter the break.
“No question about it our offense let us down… We didn’t rise up to the physicality that Phoenix played with in loading the paint, not enough help” – Reeve after loss to PHX.
“Minnesota does a good job of taking away our threes. We’ve kind of struggled in that area, so there was a lot of room to work for AT. … She did it attacking downhill. She found it on her rolls. … We kind of lived in the paint tonight and when you take away the threes, that’s what you got to look for is scoring in the paint. … It was a heck of a performance by her.” – Thibbetts
Sami Whitcomb notched 6 assists (team-high) against MIN last meeting, with 5 of those going to AT. Both of her season-high assist games have come against Minnesota, yet she has yet to notch over a single 3PM against the best Spot Up team this season.
Will note, this is Minnesota’s 9th game already this month, while Phoenix has played just 4! This is preventing The Lynx was pulling away, as they have now kept six straight games within 15 points. Courtney Williams had by far the best game vs PHX with her 21 Points off a team high of 18 FGA, and just two of those looks were from behind the arc. A lot of her action was through PnR with Collier to attack AT’s drop coverage. So glad she’s an All-Star.
Phoenix’s defense has been unreal, and have the best DRTG in the 3 games without Sabally/Copper. In these three games, they are Top 3 at limiting OPP PITP and Fastbreak Points. This defense will see a slight hit in productivity with Monique Akoa Makani out (concussion). However the one thing they cannot control is their lack of size, which has left them surrendering 14.7 2nd Chance Pts (most) and 19.4 F Rebs (3rd most) in this span. Recent bigs have been successful:
– Collier/Smith 7&9
– Yueru/Geis 7&8 (limited mins from blowout too)
– Billings 9 in 19min
Alanna (14) and Collier (17) led in chances, and both were in great position all game – good spot to target.
Seattle gets to host The Valks, who just lost a heartbreaker to The Mercury on Monday. The last time Golden State faced The Storm, they absolutely crushed them by 27 points in Ballhalla.
“I thought they did everything better than us. 20 to 4 in fastbreak points. We are 2nd in the league in PITP, it was 48-18. It’s embarrassing, it’s bullshit effort on our part, as professionals we have to come out every night” – Skylar Diggins-Smith
The Storm’s paint defense has not improved since, as they have allowed the most OPP PITP in their L10 games at 38.6 per game. The Mystics just contributed another 48 PITP inside against them! This is going to likely be a drastic shift in Valks offense, as they just scored 10 total PITP against The Mercury. In games where GSV have scored 35+ PITP (which includes two 45+ vs SEA), player trends have included:
– Thornton 10, 15, 16, 22, 18 and 22 Pts (15.5 FGA in 4GP w/ 30+ min)
– Burton 8, 7, 5, 3, 9, 6 and 12 Ast (7.5 APG w/ 25+ min, 15.3 Pots)
Thornton has 14+ Pts in 9/9 games with 13+ FGA against non-T3 defenses.
Seattle, despite addressing it often in their postgame, also cannot rebound for sh*t. They are leaking the 2nd most in their L10 games, with by far the most frontcourt rebounds. Recent performers (L5 GP):
– Allisha Gray (SF) 11 Reb / Brionna (C) 10 Reb
– Charles (C) 10.5/gp
– Iriafen (PF) 10 / Austin (C) 7 in 23min
– Ionescu (SG) 9 / Sabally (C) 6 in 20min
The Valks are by far the best Paint defense this year, but also that is a biproduct of surrendering the most OPP 3PA in their L10 games at 28.6 per game. Phoenix just shot 29 threes against them with 22 PITP. They absolutely love to collapse on any and all inside action, which is going to be a shock for Seattle’s offense who faced a very porous Mystics interior.
Magbegor & Ogwumike just combined for 28 FGA, which is more than their total FGA through two entire meetings against Golden State (26). Expecting both of these two to regress significantly, while SDS could command attention here.
The final 30 seconds in the TD Garden on Tuesday featured a groin reaggravation to Caitlin Clark, and given this is the second leg of their back-to-back along with entering an extended break, she has no real reason to suit up on the road vs The Liberty. Just going to focus on NYL offense here.
Sabrina Ionescu has averaged 28.5 PPG against Indiana thus far, coming off 20 shots per contest. Now at this point in the season, that volume isn’t even outlandish for her, as she has had at least 18 shots in 4 straight games. The Indiana Fever defense isn’t known for doubling, so individual matchups for Sabrina and Stewart are favorable.
I question the competitive nature of this game given Fever’s scenario.
The Aces are heading to Dallas to face the Wings, and are crawling back to an even record. After losing three straight halfway through June, A’ja Wilson decided to take matters into her own hands, and has scored 22+ Pts in 6 of the 7 games she was able to finish (got hurt vs The Liberty).
The Dallas Wings have been running a new double-big lineup that consists of both Li Yueru and Geiselsoder as they lost Nalyssa Smith in a trade to Aces (revenge!). I would love to back some Nalyssa Smith, yet with Megan Gustafson returning to the lineup, it seems that Smith has been relegated back to low playing time – she saw just 9 minutes last game. Someone please give this girl some run!
This DAL lineup sucks, as they are giving up 40 PITP per game despite the increase in size along with being just 1-3 since it’s implementation. Their depth of McCowan and MHA does not provide any defensive improvements. However, DiJonai Carrington having a shot at returning to the lineup. Unsure how A’ja won’t continue to roll, as she has averaged 35.3 PPG vs DAL in her three meetings across the last two seasons with 22 shots per game.
No team has given up more assists to guards in this 4 game span than DAL has, at 14.1 per game. Notable POA numbers have been:
– Caitlin Clark 13 Ast (25min) / McDonald 6 in 20min
– AT 15 Ast, 10 Ast
Jackie Young had 5+ Ast in every game with A’ja against DAL, yet if Wilson’s jumpshot is falling over these DAL bigs, then any Aces player can seemingly thrive. Young has personally notched 17+ Pts in all 4 meetings, averaging over 20 PPG as she gets to attack inside.
This Aces team is a statistical paradox. In their L10 games, they are ranking 1st at limiting OPP 3PA, RPG, APG and 2nd Chance Pts… yet they’ve won just half of those games. In the sole meeting this season, The Wings attacked them purely through their backcourt:
– Arike 17 FGA
– Dijonai 16 FGA
– Bueckers 19 FGA
Arike has had this teams number, with 28.8 PA across the four meetings since 2024 with 17.5 FGA per game.