The slate begins at noon, for a matchup that likely was expected to be a top game of the season entering June, given the headliners of Paige Bueckers and Caitlin Clark. However, the sophomore slump for Clark has been in full effect. Caitlin Clark has made just 4 of 35 3PA across her last 5 games. However, it is good that she is back at home, which this season has been an astronomical difference in play. Clark this season has shot 40.3% from deep at home, sinking 3.6 makes per game off of 8.9 attempts. However, throw her on the road and that number is 3.6%. THREE POINT SIX PERCENT! She has made just 0.3 per 7 attempts, insanity.
The Wings have allowed the highest OPP 3P% in their L10 games, with Whitcomb, Citron, Copper, Allen/Banham and Mitchell all notching over 40% shooting off 5+ attempts against DAL in just the last 5 games.
The meeting between these two just two weeks ago was an Indiana victory without Clark, as Kelsey Mitchell dropped 32 points – marking her season high and third straight game with 30+ points against The Wings. Clark has also had 24+ in all three 2024 meetings. As The Wings have now started a double-big lineup of Yueru and Geiselsoder, which discourages them from doing a ton of doubling. Good handoff action is what allowed Sami Whitcomb to notch 36 points, so a lot of pullup 3s in store here.
The success has most come from slashing bigs though:
– Copper 33 Pts (17 FGA) / Satou 20 Pts (15)
– Austin 18 Pts (15)
– Natasha Howard 15 (10)
Natasha Howard fits the bill, and also helps when she is facing her former squad. She also picked up 13 rebounds, which is a shocking figure vs this lineup. In DAL’s L10 games, only Howard and Reese have averaged over 7 DREB.
Indiana’s defense has surrendered the fewest fastbreak points in their L10 games, at just 7.1 per game. Arike Ogunbowale is probable to return to the lineup, which likely relegates JJ Quinerly to the bench. This should reopen Paige to thrive as a passer, and with Arike vs below average defenses has averaged 6.4 APG. In Paige’s last 3 games with JJ/Aziaha in lineup, she only notched 8 potentials per game – compared to 12.6 in the 5 games prior.
Not a great spot to back her however, as IND is allowing the fewest OPP APG in that span, which may just be due to how much they are fouling. They have struggled mightily as a Post Up defense, which doesn’t really play into DAL’s strengths unless Yueru can build off her 18 Pt performance vs CHI (season high).
The New York Liberty just had 5 days of rest, and get to be at home against Atlanta. In their last 5 games, they have allowed the 2nd most OPP RPG and the 2nd most OPP APG. They have been addressing this issue for a while, and noted this after the win over Las Vegas (allowed just 32 Reb):
“The mindset and things that we wanted to focus in on were rebounding, getting to the free throw line, and just moving the ball. … The way that we started stayed pretty consistent throughout the game. Like the ball was flying all over the place and just finding the open person.”
Sabrina and Fiebich notched 8 & 9 rebounds to lead the team. Cloud will return this game after some hip discomfort. If Fiebich is set on crashing the glass in Jonquel’s absence, then it makes her 3.5 line intriguing.
The 32 Rebounds and 13 Assists that Aces notched are pale in comparison to the 38 Rebounds and 27 Assists that ATL notched against NYL just 3 games prior. Allisha with 15 RA to Canada’s 13. A part of these high numbers is out of The Liberty’s control, as they are the league’s leader in PACE, so a lot more possessions in store. Canada got up to 19 potential assists, the highest potential count of any ATL player this season.
In the last 10 games, ATL is allowing the 3rd lowest OPP 3PA, along with the fewest Corner 3s, Pts off TOV. As a result, ATL has struggled mightly against the Pick-and-Roll system. They currently rank 10th or worse at limiting points from PnR Handlers, Rollers, Post Up, Handoff and Off Screen.
It’s likely we see a lot of Pick-and-Roll with Sabrina/Stewie, so both sides are scoring threats. Recent duos have been succeeding:
– Sabrina / Stewart 15 & 18 FGA
– Wheeler / Ogwumike 17 & 14 FGA
– Court / Phee 16 & 18 FGA
– Paige / Yueru 15 & 9 FGA
– Atkins / Reese 22 & 11 FGA
– Hayes / Thornton 10 & 14 FGA
– Clark / Boston 17 & 10 FGA
First meeting this year between Seattle and Washington. The Mystics have allowed the fewest OPP 3PA since Austin entered the lineup (6-3 in that span). Only one opposing starter has made over 2 threes vs WSH, while Young, Loyd, and Rhyne were the only two ball handlers to notch over 5 3PA. Jackie had two buzzer beater attempts. They have ranked Top 4 in DRTG, OPP PTs off TOV and 2nd Chance Pts in this span. Guards have struggled:
– Atkins 10 Pts (7 Ast)
– Court 5 Pts / McBride 7 Pts
– Paige 16 Pts (7 Ast, in Reg)
– Rhyne 13 Pts (6 Ast)
– Gray 13 Pts (8 Ast) / Jackie 13 Pts
– Arike 14 Pts
– Williams 10 Pts (8 Ast)
– Atkins 11 Pts (5 Ast)
Thus, the people that have thrived in these games vs WSH have been the frontcourt. Reese/Williams just combined for 26 FGA and 42 Pts (20+ each), and Collier poured on 28 Pts (21 FGA) the game before. Expecting Gabby Williams to continue rolling, yet Nneka Ogwumike in for a good spot as well.
Seattle’s defense has so much length and lateral movement, which garnered them the 2nd best DRTG and allowing the 2nd fewest OPP 3PA in their L10 games. The main hole of this defense comes from their rebounding, as they have let up just under 40 rebounds per game. This has been addressed in frequent postgames:
After NYL: “The biggest thing is finishing possessions with rebounds. I’ve been challenging Gabby to rebound the ball… sometimes we have to remind her who she is… Our Achilles heel was giving up O’ boards, our issue with it was just being fundamental and boxing out… we will continue to emphasize it.” – Quinn
After CON: “We’ll play defense and then we don’t seal it off with the rebound or… we don’t score. … At this level, you have to be able to do that. … We want to continue to play in transition after getting stops off of one shot on goal.” – Ogwumike
As Connecticut takes on Los Angeles, it’s going to be a game of non existent defense. Despite CON being just 1-9 in their L10 games, they actually rank slightly better in DRTG than LA does – though both of these teams are dead last in the league. Sparks are allowing the most PITP in that span while playing at a Top 3 PACE, making me most intrigued by The Sun’s young core in Nelson-Ododa and Saniya Rivers.
Rivers’ points have increased every single game across the last 4, while seeing her season-high in minutes last game at 35. Was assigned to Gabby Williams, so likely to sit off Rickea Jackson today. The Sparks have allowed the 2nd fewest opponent rebounds in their L10 games, notably (by far) the fewest Guard rebounds. In turn, they are actually in the B3 to rebounds surrendered to opposing forwards (Hamby/Rickea defenders).
CON’s defense is swiss cheese, similar to their opponent, so can take any spot you wish. They are not only the worst rim defense on the season, yet also the worst Spot Up defense. As mentioned prior, the worst rebound defense is a title also held by this team, giving up 38.6 per game. Azura Stevens in her last game vs CON had 17 rebounds, yet that was a season ago. Opposing to LA, they let up 25 OPP Guard RPG, making up 64% of the total rebounds let up. LA, who was the best team at limiting G reb, allows just 7.