Three games today tip off before noon local time as summer camps persist, with the earliest being Connecticut hosting Seattle at 9:00 AM ET. Both of these teams were given two full days of rest in preparation of the for the early game.
The Sun faced The Storm just under two weeks ago, where SEA did what is expected of every CON opponent with a 16 point victory. Granted, The Storm were up 27 points entering the fourth quarter, which left Magbegor & Ogwumike to notch under 25 minutes of playing time.
Williams led the team in minutes at 31, remaining blowout proof and receiving good word from Coach Quinn after their most recent win over Liberty:
“I rely on Gabby to score the basketball, and I think she’s been in on teams in which that wasn’t necessarily her first or second option. This year for us … her aggressiveness in transition or getting downhill … there’s a dynamic aspect about her that’s different from our other primary scorers. … It’s just about consistency and the confidence, not letting the confidence drop and our team is pouring into her.”
Just to get it out of the way, here is where the 2-16 Sun have landed defensively in their L10 games:
– 13th in OPP RPG (40.7), 12th in OPP APG (21.5)
– 13th in NETRTG, ORTG, DRTG, 2nd Chance Pts
– 11th in OPP PITP, 13th in OPP Rim FGM
We’ll focus on the first half, where Seattle’s rotation was standard. The Storm were able to notch 52 points in these 20 minutes, had 37 FGA and just 5 total turnovers. Seattle has cracked the top four in PACE in their L10 games, despite their first 10 being just 11th in that mark.
Skylar Diggins-Smith notched 16 Pts off 8 FGA in this half, yet all five of the starters got up at least 4 FGA. The fantasy leaders for Seattle in this period:
– Gabby Williams 29.2 (9p-6r-4a w/ 3 stocks)
– Magbegor 22.3 (10-4-3 w/ 1 stock)
– SDS 22.2 (16-1-4)
– Ogwumike 15.3 (6-4-1 w/ 1 stock)
On the full game, the trio of SDS, Williams and Wheeler each notched between 10-13 potentials in a pure triple-headed attack. But high blowout risk games pose the biggest benefit to the 2nd pick of the 2025 draft: Dom Malonga. She played a season high of 20 minutes last game vs CON, and then just dropped a near double-double (10p-8r) in just 11min of action against NYL. After that game, Ogwumike noted, “Every game is a learning experience for Dom, we don’t have a lot of time to practice and improve. We expect her to come out and do her thing”.
Seattle’s defense went full switch vs Liberty, as Nneka said, “There is just so many threats on the team, so we couldn’t afford being out of position. We wanted to make sure our switching kept lanes closed and then we can seal for a rebound“.
If there has been anything to critique Seattle for this season, it would be their rebounding. The only team who has allowed most rebounds in the L10 games is their opponent, as SEA gives up 35.9 Reb per game. This was from Quinn last game:
“The biggest thing is finishing possessions with rebounds. I’ve been challenging Gabby to rebound the ball… sometimes we have to remind her who she is... Our Achilles heel was giving up O’ boards, our issue with it was just being fundamental and boxing out… we will continue to emphasize it.“
Not worth having a note on CON offense, this team shouldn’t even exist this season. Without Mabrey, this team has lost every game by a minimum of 16 points, average of 24.6.
Caitlin Clark has returned for Indiana, and will be thrown immediately into the Valkyries trap. Kayla Thornton was her defender. This Valkyries team is not afraid to throw doubles at anything or anyone, as their lateral movement allows for constant switching. The most common of these is high screen on Ball Handlers off PnR, or collapsing inside on the Roller. Best way to beat this team is through quality downhill drive-and-kick action, quick PnR or offball action.
The biproduct of this is that GSV surrenders by far the most OPP Corner 3s in the league. The true ATL starting rotation can stick a lot of players here (Howard, Canada, Gray), yet the bench unit of Coffey and Caldwell lead the team in actual volume. High kickout frequency from bigs has left to a number of good assist numbers:
– Alanna Smith 6 Ast (19min)
– Hamby 5 Ast / Azura 4 Ast
– Shepard 5 Ast
– Satou 5 Ast
– Breezy 5 Ast
These 6 players were each in the top 10 assist numbers against Valkyries in their L10 games. Aliyah Boston last meeting notched just 1 assist… off of 9 potentials.
The Valkyries are the league’s best Paint defense in their L10 games, surrendering just 28 Pts in The Paint per game. They are 2nd to Minnesota in DRTG in that span. However, given how high The Valks have to apply pressure to Caitlin Clark (who was 0/7 in the prior meeting), it allowed the Fever frontcourt of Howard and Boston to get frequent 1v1 Post Ups that other teams were unable to generate.
Granted, Clark has made just 1/23 3PA in her last three games, and now coming off a groin injury which may bring a minutes limit. Due to this shooting struggles, I could see Valkyries lowering their pickup trap point until she can prove her shot is falling; Currently, a Boston Post Up is a much higher quality look than a Clark three.
Indiana’s defense has been slipping, now in the B4 in their L5 games, though their actual offense has remained Top 3 in that span. While they have allowed the fewest OPP APG in the L10 games, but that could be due to they allowing the 2nd most OPP FTA. Indiana has allowed 12 players to notch 20+ points in the L10 games, which is pretty absurd. This is such an even spread as well, as exactly 6 of those players were backcourt players.
The top contender to succeed in any Valks game is Kayla Thornton, whose entire scoring production oddly came from deep last meeting vs Indiana. She only played 20 minutes due to heavy foul issues. As a result, she didn’t man defend Clark in the 2H (Burton did) – instead residing off Lexie Hull. Could leave her in better rebound positioning. Will have to see if GSV elects to keep her off to avoid a similar disaster, despite The Valks winning that game by double digits.
The Mercury are still without Copper and Sabally, which left Sami Whitcomb to notch 36 Points in a 30 Pt victory over The Wings… what??? With this PHX duo off the court this season, Natasha Mack and Alyssa Thomas leads the team in usage rate at 27.5% each. Thomas is responsible for 48.8% of the team’s assists in this sample, notching 15 last game (which was 65%!), yet in total is just 7.5 per 30min.
It is hard to tell if the new PHX lineup is as strong defensively as their 85.7 DRTG last game suggests, but they certainly are a high pressure unit. This was effective in keeping constant 2 focused on Bueckers, yet it did seem beatable through deep seals.
Alanna Smith was the only Minnesota starter to cover their individual scoring line in all meetings vs PHX this season, yet shot just 6 times in the only game with Collier – compared to 15 without her. This is even less of a dip than what Courtney Williams had, with 18 FGA w/o Collier and just 6 when alongside her. MIN beat PHX by 23 in the only meeting with their full squad.
Alanna has yet to notch 6 rebounds in the 8 meetings vs PHX since the start of last season.
Will note again that Angel Reese has been an absolute monster on the glass, and now has had 5 straight games with 15+ Pts and 15+ Rebounds, which is the longest streak in WNBA history. The other three players to notch 3 straight games? A’ja Wilson in 2024 (MVP), Jonquel Jones in 2021 (MVP) and Lisa Leslie in 2006 (MVP).
Despite Angel Reese averaging an astonishing 17 RPG in her last 6 games, Chicago as a team has still given up over 35 RPG in that span (4th most). Chicago’s starting lineup now includes Onyenwere instead of Rebecca Allen. Here were the other recent leaders (>25min):
– Courtney 8 Reb (Atkins defender) & Collier 7 (Reese)
– Peddy 6 (Atkins) & Hamby 10 (Reese)
– Thornton 6 (Atkins)
– Gray 5 (Atkins) & Jones 11 (Reese)
– Citron 8 (Onye) & Iriafen 10 (Reese)
Paige likely to sit off Onye here, while Geiselsoder should be assigned to Reese.
The Sky have allowed Top 3 Pts at The Rim this season, which has remained true across their last 10 games. They also remain a B3 DRTG, notably as they allow the most Pts off TOV and in transition. WSH just notched 31 FTA against Chicago, with 20 of those being from Austin and Iriafen. Somehow this team only made 17 of those, but I digress.
Granted, Chicago has also struggled mightily at defending the perimeter. They are the only team in the L10 games to surrender double-digit OPP 3PM, off the 2nd highest volume. The Mystics only shot 15 of these on Tuesday morning, yet they shoot the lowest 3PA per game as a team this season. Admittedly, DAL is also B3 on the year in perimeter volume.