Mercury @ Mystics [ Mystics +9.5 / 158.5 ]
Mercury | 26-14 (65%)Mystics | 16-25 (39%)
Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.
Our base model gives the Mystics (+9.5) a 57.7-23.1% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 158.5 around 55-59.1% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Mystics have a 75.4% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 55.6% chance of going over the total.
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
Rest disadvantage
Baller Systems
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Rest advantage
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
Double digit, in season revenge
1st game home off long road trip (at least three games)
Baller Systems
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| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | |
| 9/6 | CON | PHO -10 CON +10 | 161.5 | PHO | - | - | - |
| 9/4 | WAS | PHO -9.5 WAS +9.5 | 158.5 | PHO | - | - | - |
| 9/2 | PHO [ 85 ] | PHO -7.5 IND +7.5 | 166.5 | IND [ 79 ] | +6 | -1.5 | -2.5 |
| 8/30 | PHO [ 80 ] | PHO +1 NYL -1 | 167 | NYL [ 63 ] | +17 | +18 | -24 |
| 8/28 | PHO [ 83 ] | PHO -12 CHI +12 | 164.5 | CHI [ 79 ] | +4 | -8 | -2.5 |
| 8/26 | LAS [ 84 ] | PHO -3.5 LAS +3.5 | 178 | PHO [ 92 ] | +8 | +4.5 | -2 |
| 8/22 | PHO [ 81 ] | PHO -6 GSV +6 | 155.5 | GSV [ 72 ] | +9 | +3 | -2.5 |
| 8/21 | LVA [ 83 ] | PHO +1 LVA -1 | 171 | PHO [ 61 ] | -22 | -21 | -27 |
| 8/19 | GSV [ 91 ] | PHO -6.5 GSV +6.5 | 154.5 | PHO [ 98 ] | +7 | +0.5 | +34.5 |
| 8/17 | SEA [ 82 ] | PHO +2 SEA -2 | 164.5 | PHO [ 85 ] | +3 | +5 | +2.5 |
| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | |
| 9/7 | WAS | WAS +6.5 IND -6.5 | 160.5 | IND | - | - | - |
| 9/4 | WAS | WAS +9.5 PHO -9.5 | 158.5 | PHO | - | - | - |
| 8/31 | LAS [ 81 ] | WAS +9 LAS -9 | 168.5 | WAS [ 78 ] | -3 | +6 | -9.5 |
| 8/30 | GSV [ 99 ] | WAS +4.5 GSV -4.5 | 148 | WAS [ 62 ] | -37 | -32.5 | +13 |
| 8/28 | NYL [ 89 ] | WAS +8 NYL -8 | 159.5 | WAS [ 63 ] | -26 | -18 | -7.5 |
| 8/24 | WAS [ 82 ] | WAS +8.5 SEA -8.5 | 157 | SEA [ 84 ] | -2 | +6.5 | +9 |
| 8/23 | WAS [ 81 ] | WAS +7.5 LVA -7.5 | 160.5 | LVA [ 91 ] | -10 | -2.5 | +11.5 |
| 8/21 | CON [ 67 ] | WAS -3 CON +3 | 158 | WAS [ 56 ] | -11 | -14 | -35 |
| 8/19 | WAS [ 69 ] | WAS -6.5 CON +6.5 | 158.5 | CON [ 80 ] | -11 | -17.5 | -9.5 |
| 8/17 | WAS [ 95 ] | WAS +3 LAS -3 | 171.5 | LAS [ 86 ] | +9 | +12 | +9.5 |
| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | Pace | Ortg | Drtg | Net | Tot | |
| 9/4 | WAS | WAS +9.5 PHO -9.5 | 158.5 | PHO | - | - | - | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - |
| 7/27 | WAS [ 72 ] | WAS +8 PHO -8 | 162.5 | PHO [ 88 ] | -16 | -8 | -2.5 | 94.6 - | 91.3 - | 111.6 - | -20.3 - | 160 - |
| 5/25 | PHO [ 68 ] | WAS +5.5 PHO -5.5 | 163 | WAS [ 62 ] | -6 | -0.5 | -33 | 90.8 - | 81.9 - | 89.8 - | -7.9 - | 130 - |
| 9/5 | PHO [ 77 ] | WAS +5.5 PHO -5.5 | 165.5 | WAS [ 90 ] | +13 | +18.5 | +1.5 | 93.8 - | 115.2 - | 98.5 - | 16.6 - | 167 - |
| 7/16 | WAS [ 87 ] | WAS +4.5 PHO -4.5 | 167.5 | PHO [ 96 ] | -9 | -4.5 | +15.5 | 93.2 - | 112.1 - | 123.7 - | -11.6 - | 183 - |
| 5/23 | PHO [ 83 ] | WAS +6 PHO -6 | 161.5 | WAS [ 80 ] | -3 | +3 | +1.5 | 98.2 - | 97.7 - | 101.4 - | -3.7 - | 163 - |
| Mercury ( game/s) |
Mystics ( game/s) |
|
| - | Win Percentage | - |
| - | ATS Win% | - |
| - | OU% | - |
| - | Offensive Rating | - |
| - | Defensive Rating | - |
| - | Pace | - |
| - | A/TO Ratio | - |
| Mercury ( game/s) |
Mystics ( game/s) |
|
| - | EFG% | - |
| - | EFG% Allowed | - |
| - | FT Rate | - |
| - | FT Rate Allowed | - |
| - | OReb% | - |
| - | OReb% Allowed | - |
| - | TO Rate | - |
| - | TO Rate Forced | - |
| Mercury ( game/s) |
Mystics ( game/s) |
|
| - | PPG | - |
| - | PPG Allowed | - |
| - | Pts off TO | - |
| - | Pts off TO Allowed | - |
| - | 2nd Chance Pts | - |
| - | 2nd Chance Pts Allowed | - |
| - | Fast Break Pts | - |
| - | Fast Break Pts Allowed | - |
| Mercury ( game/s) |
Mystics ( game/s) |
|
| - | Paint Attempts | - |
| - | Paint Attempts Allowed | - |
| - | Paint FG% | - |
| - | Paint FG% Allowed | - |
| - | Mid-Range Attempts | - |
| - | Mid-Range Attempts Allowed | - |
| - | Mid-Range FG% | - |
| - | Mid-Range FG% Allowed | - |
| Mercury ( game/s) |
Mystics ( game/s) |
|
| - | Corner 3 Attempts | - |
| - | Corner 3 Attempts Allowed | - |
| - | Corner 3 FG% | - |
| - | Corner 3 FG% Allowed | - |
| - | ATB3 Attempts | - |
| - | ATB3 Attempts Allowed | - |
| - | ATB3 FG% | - |
| - | ATB3 FG% Allowed | - |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercury 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mercury | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Mystics 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mystics | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercury 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mercury | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mystics 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mystics | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercury 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mercury | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mystics 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mystics | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercury 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mercury | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mystics 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mystics | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercury 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mercury | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mystics 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mystics | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Team | Dog 10+ | Dog 7-10 | Dog 2.5-7 | Within 2.5 | Fav 2.5-7 | Fav 7-10 | Fav 10+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercury | 1-2-0 (33.3%) | 1-0-0 (100%) | 4-3-0 (57.1%) | 3-1-0 (75%) | 8-6-0 (57.1%) | 2-3-0 (40%) | 3-3-0 (50%) |
| Mystics | 3-1-0 (75%) | 8-4-0 (66.7%) | 4-5-0 (44.4%) | 0-2-0 (0%) | 2-9-0 (18.2%) | 2-1-0 (66.7%) | 0-0-0 (-) |