Lynx @ Aces [ Aces +2.5 / 163.5 ]
Lynx | 31-8 (79.5%)Aces | 26-14 (65%)
Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.
Our base model gives the Aces (+2.5) a 35.8-72.4% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 163.5 around 59.7-64.9% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Aces have a 51.3% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 62.1% chance of going over the total.
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
Rest disadvantage
Baller Systems
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Rest advantage
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
Double digit, in season revenge
1st game home off long road trip (at least three games)
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)
Baller Systems
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| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | |
| 9/6 | GSV | MIN -6.5 GSV +6.5 | 156 | MIN | - | - | - |
| 9/4 | LVA | MIN -2.5 LVA +2.5 | 163.5 | MIN | - | - | - |
| 9/1 | MIN [ 96 ] | MIN -18.5 DAL +18.5 | 169.5 | DAL [ 71 ] | +25 | +6.5 | -2.5 |
| 8/30 | CON [ 70 ] | MIN -12.5 CON +12.5 | 163 | MIN [ 94 ] | +24 | +11.5 | +1 |
| 8/28 | MIN [ 79 ] | MIN -9 SEA +9 | 164 | SEA [ 93 ] | -14 | -23 | +8 |
| 8/24 | MIN [ 97 ] | MIN -12 IND +12 | 168 | IND [ 84 ] | +13 | +1 | +13 |
| 8/22 | IND [ 90 ] | MIN -8 IND +8 | 166 | MIN [ 95 ] | +5 | -3 | +19 |
| 8/21 | ATL [ 75 ] | MIN -3 ATL +3 | 161.5 | MIN [ 73 ] | -2 | -5 | -13.5 |
| 8/19 | NYL [ 85 ] | MIN +3 NYL -3 | 166.5 | MIN [ 75 ] | -10 | -7 | -6.5 |
| 8/16 | MIN [ 86 ] | MIN -1.5 NYL +1.5 | 165.5 | NYL [ 80 ] | +6 | +4.5 | +0.5 |
| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | |
| 9/7 | LVA | LVA -17 CHI +17 | 160.5 | CHI | - | - | - |
| 9/4 | LVA | LVA +2.5 MIN -2.5 | 163.5 | MIN | - | - | - |
| 8/27 | ATL [ 75 ] | LVA +3 ATL -3 | 162.5 | LVA [ 81 ] | +6 | +9 | -6.5 |
| 8/25 | CHI [ 74 ] | LVA -10.5 CHI +10.5 | 166 | LVA [ 79 ] | +5 | -5.5 | -13 |
| 8/23 | WAS [ 81 ] | LVA -7.5 WAS +7.5 | 160.5 | LVA [ 91 ] | +10 | +2.5 | +11.5 |
| 8/21 | LVA [ 83 ] | LVA -1 PHO +1 | 171 | PHO [ 61 ] | +22 | +21 | -27 |
| 8/19 | LVA [ 74 ] | LVA -3 ATL +3 | 166.5 | ATL [ 72 ] | +2 | -1 | -20.5 |
| 8/17 | LVA [ 106 ] | LVA -10.5 DAL +10.5 | 172 | DAL [ 87 ] | +19 | +8.5 | +21 |
| 8/15 | PHO [ 83 ] | LVA +4.5 PHO -4.5 | 168.5 | LVA [ 86 ] | +3 | +7.5 | +0.5 |
| 8/13 | LVA [ 83 ] | LVA -3.5 NYL +3.5 | 172 | NYL [ 77 ] | +6 | +2.5 | -12 |
| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | Pace | Ortg | Drtg | Net | Tot | |
| 9/4 | LVA | LVA +2.5 MIN -2.5 | 163.5 | MIN | - | - | - | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - |
| 8/2 | LVA [ 58 ] | LVA +4.5 MIN -4.5 | 166.5 | MIN [ 111 ] | -53 | -48.5 | +2.5 | 93.5 - | 74.4 - | 142.4 - | -68 - | 169 - |
| 7/25 | MIN [ 109 ] | LVA +10 MIN -10 | 162.5 | LVA [ 78 ] | -31 | -21 | +24.5 | 94 - | 99.5 - | 139.1 - | -39.6 - | 187 - |
| 6/17 | MIN [ 76 ] | LVA +13 MIN -13 | 161 | LVA [ 62 ] | -14 | -1 | -23 | 88.5 - | 84.1 - | 103.1 - | -19 - | 138 - |
| 8/23 | MIN [ 87 ] | LVA -3 MIN +3 | 166.5 | LVA [ 74 ] | -13 | -16 | -5.5 | 95.1 - | 93.3 - | 109.7 - | -16.4 - | 161 - |
| 8/21 | LVA [ 87 ] | LVA -7 MIN +7 | 167.5 | MIN [ 98 ] | -11 | -18 | +17.5 | 88.2 - | 118.4 - | 133.4 - | -15 - | 185 - |
| 6/11 | LVA [ 86 ] | LVA -7 MIN +7 | 166 | MIN [ 100 ] | -14 | -21 | +20 | 94.9 - | 108.8 - | 126.5 - | -17.7 - | 186 - |
| 5/29 | MIN [ 66 ] | LVA -4.5 MIN +4.5 | 169.5 | LVA [ 80 ] | +14 | +9.5 | -23.5 | 92.8 - | 103.4 - | 85.3 - | 18.1 - | 146 - |
| Lynx ( game/s) |
Aces ( game/s) |
|
| - | Win Percentage | - |
| - | ATS Win% | - |
| - | OU% | - |
| - | Offensive Rating | - |
| - | Defensive Rating | - |
| - | Pace | - |
| - | A/TO Ratio | - |
| Lynx ( game/s) |
Aces ( game/s) |
|
| - | EFG% | - |
| - | EFG% Allowed | - |
| - | FT Rate | - |
| - | FT Rate Allowed | - |
| - | OReb% | - |
| - | OReb% Allowed | - |
| - | TO Rate | - |
| - | TO Rate Forced | - |
| Lynx ( game/s) |
Aces ( game/s) |
|
| - | PPG | - |
| - | PPG Allowed | - |
| - | Pts off TO | - |
| - | Pts off TO Allowed | - |
| - | 2nd Chance Pts | - |
| - | 2nd Chance Pts Allowed | - |
| - | Fast Break Pts | - |
| - | Fast Break Pts Allowed | - |
| Lynx ( game/s) |
Aces ( game/s) |
|
| - | Paint Attempts | - |
| - | Paint Attempts Allowed | - |
| - | Paint FG% | - |
| - | Paint FG% Allowed | - |
| - | Mid-Range Attempts | - |
| - | Mid-Range Attempts Allowed | - |
| - | Mid-Range FG% | - |
| - | Mid-Range FG% Allowed | - |
| Lynx ( game/s) |
Aces ( game/s) |
|
| - | Corner 3 Attempts | - |
| - | Corner 3 Attempts Allowed | - |
| - | Corner 3 FG% | - |
| - | Corner 3 FG% Allowed | - |
| - | ATB3 Attempts | - |
| - | ATB3 Attempts Allowed | - |
| - | ATB3 FG% | - |
| - | ATB3 FG% Allowed | - |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lynx 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Lynx | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Aces 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Aces | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lynx 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Lynx | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Aces 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Aces | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lynx 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Lynx | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Aces 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Aces | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lynx 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Lynx | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Aces 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Aces | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lynx 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Lynx | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Aces 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Aces | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Team | Dog 10+ | Dog 7-10 | Dog 2.5-7 | Within 2.5 | Fav 2.5-7 | Fav 7-10 | Fav 10+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lynx | 0-0-0 (-) | 0-0-0 (-) | 1-1-0 (50%) | 2-0-0 (100%) | 3-3-0 (50%) | 3-7-0 (30%) | 13-6-0 (68.4%) |
| Aces | 0-2-0 (0%) | 0-0-0 (-) | 4-5-0 (44.4%) | 5-1-0 (83.3%) | 3-6-0 (33.3%) | 3-2-0 (60%) | 5-4-0 (55.6%) |