Valkyries @ Mystics [ Mystics -1 / 149 ]
Valkyries | 16-15 (51.6%)Mystics | 14-17 (45.2%)
Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.
Our base model gives the Mystics (-1) a 43.7-36.6% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 149 around 56.6-57% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Mystics have a 65.4% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 56.9% chance of going over the total.
Rest disadvantage
Baller Systems
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Rest advantage
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
In season revenge
1st game home off long road trip (at least three games)
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)
Baller Systems
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| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | |
| 8/15 | CHI | - - | - | GSV | - | - | - |
| 8/13 | WAS | GSV +1 WAS -1 | 149 | GSV | - | - | - |
| 8/11 | GSV [ 74 ] | GSV -8.5 CON +8.5 | 154 | CON [ 57 ] | +17 | +8.5 | -23 |
| 8/9 | GSV [ 72 ] | GSV +4 LAS -4 | 165.5 | LAS [ 59 ] | +13 | +17 | -34.5 |
| 8/6 | GSV [ 72 ] | GSV +5.5 LVA -5.5 | 157.5 | LVA [ 78 ] | -6 | -0.5 | -7.5 |
| 8/3 | LVA [ 101 ] | GSV +9.5 LVA -9.5 | 157 | GSV [ 77 ] | -24 | -14.5 | +21 |
| 8/1 | CHI [ 66 ] | GSV -4.5 CHI +4.5 | 153 | GSV [ 73 ] | +7 | +2.5 | -14 |
| 7/31 | WAS [ 67 ] | GSV +4 WAS -4 | 154.5 | GSV [ 68 ] | +1 | +5 | -19.5 |
| 7/29 | ATL [ 75 ] | GSV +8.5 ATL -8.5 | 155.5 | GSV [ 77 ] | +2 | +10.5 | -3.5 |
| 7/27 | CON [ 95 ] | GSV -4.5 CON +4.5 | 156.5 | GSV [ 64 ] | -31 | -35.5 | +2.5 |
| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | |
| 8/15 | IND | - - | - | WAS | - | - | - |
| 8/13 | WAS | WAS -1 GSV +1 | 149 | GSV | - | - | - |
| 8/10 | DAL [ 78 ] | WAS +4 DAL -4 | 163.5 | WAS [ 91 ] | +13 | +17 | +5.5 |
| 8/8 | MIN [ 80 ] | WAS +10.5 MIN -10.5 | 157.5 | WAS [ 76 ] | -4 | +6.5 | -1.5 |
| 8/5 | CHI [ 78 ] | WAS -5.5 CHI +5.5 | 156 | WAS [ 64 ] | -14 | -19.5 | -14 |
| 8/3 | ATL [ 99 ] | WAS +5.5 ATL -5.5 | 156.5 | WAS [ 83 ] | -16 | -10.5 | +25.5 |
| 7/31 | WAS [ 67 ] | WAS -4 GSV +4 | 154.5 | GSV [ 68 ] | -1 | -5 | -19.5 |
| 7/29 | WAS [ 103 ] | WAS -7.5 CHI +7.5 | 156.5 | CHI [ 86 ] | +17 | +9.5 | +32.5 |
| 7/27 | WAS [ 72 ] | WAS +8 PHO -8 | 162.5 | PHO [ 88 ] | -16 | -8 | -2.5 |
| 7/26 | WAS [ 69 ] | WAS +4 SEA -4 | 155.5 | SEA [ 58 ] | +11 | +15 | -28.5 |
| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | Pace | Ortg | Drtg | Net | Tot | |
| 8/30 | GSV | - - | - | WAS | - | - | - | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - |
| 8/13 | WAS | WAS -1 GSV +1 | 149 | GSV | - | - | - | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - |
| 7/31 | WAS [ 67 ] | WAS -4 GSV +4 | 154.5 | GSV [ 68 ] | -1 | -5 | -19.5 | 84 - | 95.7 - | 97.2 - | -1.4 - | 135 - |
| 5/21 | GSV [ 76 ] | WAS -4.5 GSV +4.5 | 162 | WAS [ 74 ] | -2 | -6.5 | -12 | 98.9 - | 89.8 - | 92.2 - | -2.4 - | 150 - |
| Valkyries ( game/s) |
Mystics ( game/s) |
|
| - | Win Percentage | - |
| - | ATS Win% | - |
| - | OU% | - |
| - | Offensive Rating | - |
| - | Defensive Rating | - |
| - | Pace | - |
| - | A/TO Ratio | - |
| Valkyries ( game/s) |
Mystics ( game/s) |
|
| - | EFG% | - |
| - | EFG% Allowed | - |
| - | FT Rate | - |
| - | FT Rate Allowed | - |
| - | OReb% | - |
| - | OReb% Allowed | - |
| - | TO Rate | - |
| - | TO Rate Forced | - |
| Valkyries ( game/s) |
Mystics ( game/s) |
|
| - | PPG | - |
| - | PPG Allowed | - |
| - | Pts off TO | - |
| - | Pts off TO Allowed | - |
| - | 2nd Chance Pts | - |
| - | 2nd Chance Pts Allowed | - |
| - | Fast Break Pts | - |
| - | Fast Break Pts Allowed | - |
| Valkyries ( game/s) |
Mystics ( game/s) |
|
| - | Paint Attempts | - |
| - | Paint Attempts Allowed | - |
| - | Paint FG% | - |
| - | Paint FG% Allowed | - |
| - | Mid-Range Attempts | - |
| - | Mid-Range Attempts Allowed | - |
| - | Mid-Range FG% | - |
| - | Mid-Range FG% Allowed | - |
| Valkyries ( game/s) |
Mystics ( game/s) |
|
| - | Corner 3 Attempts | - |
| - | Corner 3 Attempts Allowed | - |
| - | Corner 3 FG% | - |
| - | Corner 3 FG% Allowed | - |
| - | ATB3 Attempts | - |
| - | ATB3 Attempts Allowed | - |
| - | ATB3 FG% | - |
| - | ATB3 FG% Allowed | - |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valkyries 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Valkyries | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Mystics 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mystics | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valkyries 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Valkyries | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mystics 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mystics | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valkyries 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Valkyries | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mystics 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mystics | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valkyries 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Valkyries | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mystics 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mystics | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valkyries 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Valkyries | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mystics 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Mystics | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Team | Dog 10+ | Dog 7-10 | Dog 2.5-7 | Within 2.5 | Fav 2.5-7 | Fav 7-10 | Fav 10+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valkyries | 6-1-0 (85.7%) | 4-3-0 (57.1%) | 5-5-0 (50%) | 0-0-0 (-) | 2-2-0 (50%) | 1-1-0 (50%) | 1-0-0 (100%) |
| Mystics | 3-1-0 (75%) | 5-2-0 (71.4%) | 3-4-0 (42.9%) | 0-1-0 (0%) | 2-7-0 (22.2%) | 2-1-0 (66.7%) | 0-0-0 (-) |