Liberty @ Aces [ Aces -2.5 / 170.5 ]
Liberty | 21-11 (65.6%)Aces | 18-14 (56.3%)
Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.
Our base model gives the Aces (-2.5) a 30.2-60% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 170.5 around 54.1-59.3% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Aces have a 50.4% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 59.7% chance of going over the total.
Rest disadvantage
Baller Systems
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Rest advantage
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
In season revenge
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| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | |
| 8/16 | MIN | - - | - | NYL | - | - | - |
| 8/13 | LVA | NYL +2.5 LVA -2.5 | 170.5 | NYL | - | - | - |
| 8/12 | LAS [ 97 ] | NYL -4 LAS +4 | 175.5 | NYL [ 105 ] | +8 | +4 | +26.5 |
| 8/10 | NYL [ 71 ] | NYL -4 MIN +4 | 168 | MIN [ 83 ] | -12 | -16 | -14 |
| 8/8 | DAL [ 77 ] | NYL -11 DAL +11 | 170.5 | NYL [ 88 ] | +11 | 0 | -5.5 |
| 8/5 | NYL [ 85 ] | NYL -11 DAL +11 | 176 | DAL [ 76 ] | +9 | -2 | -15 |
| 8/3 | CON [ 78 ] | NYL -11.5 CON +11.5 | 171 | NYL [ 87 ] | +9 | -2.5 | -6 |
| 8/1 | CON [ 78 ] | NYL -12 CON +12 | 172 | NYL [ 62 ] | -16 | -28 | -32 |
| 7/30 | MIN [ 100 ] | NYL +7.5 MIN -7.5 | 166.5 | NYL [ 93 ] | -7 | +0.5 | +26.5 |
| 7/28 | DAL [ 92 ] | NYL -8 DAL +8 | 173 | NYL [ 82 ] | -10 | -18 | +1 |
| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | |
| 8/15 | PHO | - - | - | LVA | - | - | - |
| 8/13 | LVA | LVA -2.5 NYL +2.5 | 170.5 | NYL | - | - | - |
| 8/10 | LVA [ 94 ] | LVA -11 CON +11 | 167.5 | CON [ 86 ] | +8 | -3 | +12.5 |
| 8/8 | LVA [ 90 ] | LVA -1.5 SEA +1.5 | 162.5 | SEA [ 86 ] | +4 | +2.5 | +13.5 |
| 8/6 | GSV [ 72 ] | LVA -5.5 GSV +5.5 | 157.5 | LVA [ 78 ] | +6 | +0.5 | -7.5 |
| 8/3 | LVA [ 101 ] | LVA -9.5 GSV +9.5 | 157 | GSV [ 77 ] | +24 | +14.5 | +21 |
| 8/2 | LVA [ 58 ] | LVA +4.5 MIN -4.5 | 166.5 | MIN [ 111 ] | -53 | -48.5 | +2.5 |
| 7/29 | LAS [ 74 ] | LVA -1.5 LAS +1.5 | 175 | LVA [ 89 ] | +15 | +13.5 | -12 |
| 7/27 | DAL [ 80 ] | LVA -8 DAL +8 | 167.5 | LVA [ 106 ] | +26 | +18 | +18.5 |
| 7/25 | MIN [ 109 ] | LVA +10 MIN -10 | 162.5 | LVA [ 78 ] | -31 | -21 | +24.5 |
| Home | Line | Total | Away | SU Margin | ATS Margin | OU Margin | Pace | Ortg | Drtg | Net | Tot | |
| 8/13 | LVA | LVA -2.5 NYL +2.5 | 170.5 | NYL | - | - | - | - - | - - | - - | - - | - - |
| 7/8 | NYL [ 87 ] | LVA +3.5 NYL -3.5 | 165.5 | LVA [ 78 ] | -9 | -5.5 | -0.5 | 93.7 - | 99.8 - | 111.4 - | -11.5 - | 165 - |
| 5/17 | NYL [ 92 ] | LVA +3.5 NYL -3.5 | 169 | LVA [ 78 ] | -14 | -10.5 | +1 | 97.6 - | 95.9 - | 113.1 - | -17.2 - | 170 - |
| 10/6 | LVA [ 62 ] | LVA -3 NYL +3 | 167.5 | NYL [ 76 ] | -14 | -17 | -29.5 | 86.6 - | 86 - | 105.4 - | -19.4 - | 138 - |
| 10/4 | LVA [ 95 ] | LVA -3.5 NYL +3.5 | 164.5 | NYL [ 81 ] | +14 | +10.5 | +11.5 | 93 - | 122.6 - | 104.5 - | 18.1 - | 176 - |
| 10/1 | NYL [ 88 ] | LVA +4 NYL -4 | 164 | LVA [ 84 ] | -4 | 0 | +8 | 91.9 - | 109.7 - | 114.9 - | -5.2 - | 172 - |
| 9/29 | NYL [ 87 ] | LVA +3.5 NYL -3.5 | 163 | LVA [ 77 ] | -10 | -6.5 | +1 | 95.6 - | 96.7 - | 109.2 - | -12.6 - | 164 - |
| 9/8 | NYL [ 75 ] | LVA +9.5 NYL -9.5 | 168 | LVA [ 71 ] | -4 | +5.5 | -22 | 91.3 - | 93.3 - | 98.6 - | -5.3 - | 146 - |
| 8/17 | LVA [ 67 ] | LVA -3.5 NYL +3.5 | 175 | NYL [ 79 ] | -12 | -15.5 | -29 | 91.7 - | 87.7 - | 103.4 - | -15.7 - | 146 - |
| 6/15 | LVA [ 82 ] | LVA -2.5 NYL +2.5 | 174 | NYL [ 90 ] | -8 | -10.5 | -2 | 96 - | 102.5 - | 112.5 - | -10 - | 172 - |
| Liberty ( game/s) |
Aces ( game/s) |
|
| - | Win Percentage | - |
| - | ATS Win% | - |
| - | OU% | - |
| - | Offensive Rating | - |
| - | Defensive Rating | - |
| - | Pace | - |
| - | A/TO Ratio | - |
| Liberty ( game/s) |
Aces ( game/s) |
|
| - | EFG% | - |
| - | EFG% Allowed | - |
| - | FT Rate | - |
| - | FT Rate Allowed | - |
| - | OReb% | - |
| - | OReb% Allowed | - |
| - | TO Rate | - |
| - | TO Rate Forced | - |
| Liberty ( game/s) |
Aces ( game/s) |
|
| - | PPG | - |
| - | PPG Allowed | - |
| - | Pts off TO | - |
| - | Pts off TO Allowed | - |
| - | 2nd Chance Pts | - |
| - | 2nd Chance Pts Allowed | - |
| - | Fast Break Pts | - |
| - | Fast Break Pts Allowed | - |
| Liberty ( game/s) |
Aces ( game/s) |
|
| - | Paint Attempts | - |
| - | Paint Attempts Allowed | - |
| - | Paint FG% | - |
| - | Paint FG% Allowed | - |
| - | Mid-Range Attempts | - |
| - | Mid-Range Attempts Allowed | - |
| - | Mid-Range FG% | - |
| - | Mid-Range FG% Allowed | - |
| Liberty ( game/s) |
Aces ( game/s) |
|
| - | Corner 3 Attempts | - |
| - | Corner 3 Attempts Allowed | - |
| - | Corner 3 FG% | - |
| - | Corner 3 FG% Allowed | - |
| - | ATB3 Attempts | - |
| - | ATB3 Attempts Allowed | - |
| - | ATB3 FG% | - |
| - | ATB3 FG% Allowed | - |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Liberty | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Aces 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Aces | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Liberty | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Aces 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Aces | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Liberty | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Aces 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Aces | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Liberty | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Aces 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Aces | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Team | Overall | HF | HD | AF | AD | B2B (1st) | B2B (2nd) | +Rest | -Rest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Liberty | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Aces 1h | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Aces | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Team | Dog 10+ | Dog 7-10 | Dog 2.5-7 | Within 2.5 | Fav 2.5-7 | Fav 7-10 | Fav 10+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 0-0-0 (-) | 1-0-0 (100%) | 0-1-0 (0%) | 0-2-0 (0%) | 5-4-0 (55.6%) | 1-3-0 (25%) | 6-7-2 (46.2%) |
| Aces | 0-2-0 (0%) | 0-0-0 (-) | 2-5-0 (28.6%) | 4-1-0 (80%) | 2-5-0 (28.6%) | 2-2-0 (50%) | 4-3-0 (57.1%) |