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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Liberty (-3.5) a 78.8-66.3% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 160.5 around 50.7-52.8% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Liberty have a 72.5% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 50.3% chance of going over the total.


Dream Situational Notes

Liberty Situational Notes

Dream Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/19NYLATL +3.5
NYL -3.5
160.5ATL---
9/17ATL [  ]ATL -5.5
CHI +5.5
154.5CHI [  ]0-5.5-154.5
9/15WAS [ 73 ]ATL -1
WAS +1
154ATL [ 76 ]+3+2-5
9/13ATL [ 69 ]ATL -4.5
WAS +4.5
155WAS [ 72 ]-3-7.5-14
9/10ATL [ 64 ]ATL +5.5
MIN -5.5
155MIN [ 76 ]-12-6.5-15
9/8IND [ 104 ]ATL +5.5
IND -5.5
170ATL [ 100 ]-4+1.5+34
9/6ATL [ 107 ]ATL -2.5
DAL +2.5
170.5DAL [ 96 ]+11+8.5+32.5
9/3PHO [ 74 ]ATL +2
PHO -2
160.5ATL [ 66 ]-8-6-20.5
9/1LAS [ 62 ]ATL -4.5
LAS +4.5
163.5ATL [ 80 ]+18+13.5-21.5
8/30LVA [ 83 ]ATL +10.5
LVA -10.5
166ATL [ 72 ]-11-0.5-11

Liberty Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/19NYLNYL -3.5
ATL +3.5
160.5ATL---
9/17WAS [  ]NYL -8.5
WAS +8.5
161.5NYL [  ]0-8.5-161.5
9/15NYL [ 79 ]NYL -5.5
MIN +5.5
160MIN [ 88 ]-9-14.5+7
9/12DAL [ 67 ]NYL -10.5
DAL +10.5
177.5NYL [ 99 ]+32+21.5-11.5
9/10DAL [ 91 ]NYL -10.5
DAL +10.5
176NYL [ 105 ]+14+3.5+20
9/8NYL [ 75 ]NYL -9.5
LVA +9.5
168LVA [ 71 ]+4-5.5-22
9/5NYL [ 77 ]NYL -8
SEA +8
165SEA [ 70 ]+7-1-18
8/30SEA [ 85 ]NYL -3.5
SEA +3.5
162.5NYL [ 98 ]+13+9.5+20.5
8/28LAS [ 94 ]NYL -13.5
LAS +13.5
166NYL [ 88 ]-6-19.5+16
8/26PHO [ 70 ]NYL -6
PHO +6
166NYL [ 84 ]+14+8-12

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/19NYLNYL -3.5
ATL +3.5
160.5ATL--------
6/30NYL [ 81 ]NYL -15.5
ATL +15.5
168ATL [ 75 ]+6-9.5-1291106.898.97.9156
6/23ATL [ 75 ]NYL -9
ATL +9
165.5NYL [ 96 ]+21+12+5.596.3119.693.426.2171
6/6ATL [ 61 ]NYL -6.5
ATL +6.5
163.5NYL [ 78 ]+17+10.5-24.591.9101.879.622.2139
7/27NYL [ 95 ]NYL -8.5
ATL +8.5
175ATL [ 84 ]+11+2.5+497.3117.2103.613.6179
6/23ATL [ 80 ]NYL -7.5
ATL +7.5
172.5NYL [ 110 ]+30+22.5+17.5109.4120.787.832.9190
6/13NYL [ 79 ]NYL -10
ATL +10
171ATL [ 86 ]-7-17-693.7101.2110.2-9165
6/9ATL [ 83 ]NYL -6
ATL +6
163.5NYL [ 106 ]+23+17+25.5103.1123.496.626.8189


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Dream 1h10-27-11-5-02-11-04-2-13-9-00-0-00-0-01-9-03-5-0
Dream 13-253-34-95-21-110-00-02-83-5
Liberty 1h24-11-412-5-21-0-09-6-22-0-02-0-11-1-18-4-06-2-3
Liberty 31-815-41-013-42-03-03-09-38-3

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Dream 1h14-20-41-5-02-10-14-3-07-2-30-0-00-0-03-6-13-4-1
Dream 20-17-12-4-05-7-15-2-08-4-00-0-00-0-03-7-05-3-0
Liberty 1h16-23-06-13-01-0-07-10-02-0-01-2-01-2-05-7-04-7-0
Liberty 19-20-04-15-01-0-012-5-02-0-02-1-02-1-04-8-07-4-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Dream 1h14-22-24-2-05-7-13-4-02-9-10-0-00-0-04-5-11-7-0
Dream 16-21-12-3-15-8-04-3-05-7-00-0-00-0-04-5-13-5-0
Liberty 1h16-23-08-11-01-0-07-10-00-2-01-2-02-1-05-7-05-6-0
Liberty 19-20-010-9-01-0-08-9-00-2-02-1-03-0-04-8-06-5-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Dream 1h15-22-12-4-04-8-14-3-05-7-00-0-00-0-03-7-03-5-0
Dream 13-25-02-4-03-10-03-4-05-7-00-0-00-0-03-7-02-6-0
Liberty 1h18-21-07-12-01-0-09-8-01-1-01-2-02-1-04-8-05-6-0
Liberty 19-20-08-11-01-0-09-8-01-1-02-1-03-0-04-8-06-5-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Dream 1h13-23-24-1-15-7-13-4-01-11-00-0-00-0-04-5-12-6-0
Dream 15-23-03-3-04-9-04-3-04-8-00-0-00-0-04-6-02-6-0
Liberty 1h19-19-111-8-01-0-07-9-10-2-01-1-12-1-06-6-05-5-1
Liberty 15-24-08-11-00-1-07-10-00-2-01-2-01-2-02-10-04-7-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Liberty0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)2-0-0 (100%)2-0-0 (100%)6-4-0 (60%)4-3-1 (57.1%)5-13-0 (27.8%)
Dream4-1-0 (80%)6-3-0 (66.7%)3-4-0 (42.9%)2-4-1 (33.3%)5-5-1 (50%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)