Mercury @ Mystics [ Mystics +9.5 / 158 ]

Mercury | 26-14 (65%)
Mystics | 16-25 (39%)

Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Mystics (+9.5) a 57.7-23.1% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 158 around 55.3-59.4% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Mystics have a 75.4% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 55.9% chance of going over the total.

Mercury Situational Notes
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
Rest disadvantage

Baller Systems
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Mystics Situational Notes
Rest advantage
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
Double digit, in season revenge
1st game home off long road trip (at least three games)

Baller Systems
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Mercury Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/6CON-
-		-PHO---
9/4WASPHO -9.5
WAS +9.5
158PHO---
9/2PHO [ 85 ]PHO -7.5
IND +7.5
166.5IND [ 79 ]+6-1.5-2.5
8/30PHO [ 80 ]PHO +1
NYL -1
167NYL [ 63 ]+17+18-24
8/28PHO [ 83 ]PHO -12
CHI +12
164.5CHI [ 79 ]+4-8-2.5
8/26LAS [ 84 ]PHO -3.5
LAS +3.5
178PHO [ 92 ]+8+4.5-2
8/22PHO [ 81 ]PHO -6
GSV +6
155.5GSV [ 72 ]+9+3-2.5
8/21LVA [ 83 ]PHO +1
LVA -1
171PHO [ 61 ]-22-21-27
8/19GSV [ 91 ]PHO -6.5
GSV +6.5
154.5PHO [ 98 ]+7+0.5+34.5
8/17SEA [ 82 ]PHO +2
SEA -2
164.5PHO [ 85 ]+3+5+2.5
Mystics Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/7WAS-
-		-IND---
9/4WASWAS +9.5
PHO -9.5
158PHO---
8/31LAS [ 81 ]WAS +9
LAS -9
168.5WAS [ 78 ]-3+6-9.5
8/30GSV [ 99 ]WAS +4.5
GSV -4.5
148WAS [ 62 ]-37-32.5+13
8/28NYL [ 89 ]WAS +8
NYL -8
159.5WAS [ 63 ]-26-18-7.5
8/24WAS [ 82 ]WAS +8.5
SEA -8.5
157SEA [ 84 ]-2+6.5+9
8/23WAS [ 81 ]WAS +7.5
LVA -7.5
160.5LVA [ 91 ]-10-2.5+11.5
8/21CON [ 67 ]WAS -3
CON +3
158WAS [ 56 ]-11-14-35
8/19WAS [ 69 ]WAS -6.5
CON +6.5
158.5CON [ 80 ]-11-17.5-9.5
8/17WAS [ 95 ]WAS +3
LAS -3
171.5LAS [ 86 ]+9+12+9.5
Historical Matchups
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU MarginPaceOrtgDrtgNetTot
9/4WASWAS +9.5
PHO -9.5
158PHO----
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-
7/27WAS [ 72 ]WAS +8
PHO -8
162.5PHO [ 88 ]-16-8-2.594.6
-		91.3
-		111.6
-		-20.3
-		160
-
5/25PHO [ 68 ]WAS +5.5
PHO -5.5
163WAS [ 62 ]-6-0.5-3390.8
-		81.9
-		89.8
-		-7.9
-		130
-
9/5PHO [ 77 ]WAS +5.5
PHO -5.5
165.5WAS [ 90 ]+13+18.5+1.593.8
-		115.2
-		98.5
-		16.6
-		167
-
7/16WAS [ 87 ]WAS +4.5
PHO -4.5
167.5PHO [ 96 ]-9-4.5+15.593.2
-		112.1
-		123.7
-		-11.6
-		183
-
5/23PHO [ 83 ]WAS +6
PHO -6
161.5WAS [ 80 ]-3+3+1.598.2
-		97.7
-		101.4
-		-3.7
-		163
-

Efficiency
Mercury
(40 game/s)		 Mystics
(41 game/s)
0.65 (4)Win Percentage0.39 (10)
0.55 (5)ATS Win%0.46 (9)
0.43 (11)OU%0.49 (7)
105.29 (7)Offensive Rating99.24 (11)
100.17 (3)Defensive Rating103.72 (8)
95.05 (5)Pace94.01 (9)
1.55 (5)A/TO Ratio1.25 (12)

Four Factors
Mercury
(40 game/s)		 Mystics
(41 game/s)
50.15 (7)EFG%48.58 (10)
48.63 (5)EFG% Allowed50.37 (8)
26.11 (9)FT Rate33.27 (1)
27.94 (8)FT Rate Allowed28.81 (9)
24.67 (7)OReb%23.99 (10)
24.16 (5)OReb% Allowed22.53 (2)
17.13 (5)TO Rate19.61 (12)
19.51 (3)TO Rate Forced17.74 (6)

Scoring
Mercury
(40 game/s)		 Mystics
(41 game/s)
83.13 (6)PPG77.9 (11)
79.6 (4)PPG Allowed81.59 (7)
15.73 (6)Pts off TO15.78 (5)
13.95 (3)Pts off TO Allowed16.32 (11)
10.55 (8)2nd Chance Pts9.59 (11)
9.15 (2)2nd Chance Pts Allowed9.1 (1)
11.95 (3)Fast Break Pts8.95 (11)
10.35 (8)Fast Break Pts Allowed8.68 (1)

Inside the Arc
Mercury
(40 game/s)		 Mystics
(41 game/s)
33.18 (8)Paint Attempts35.9 (6)
32.03 (3)Paint Attempts Allowed31.34 (2)
52.6 (7)Paint FG%51.83 (8)
51.6 (4)Paint FG% Allowed55.64 (12)
8.25 (8)Mid-Range Attempts10.49 (6)
11.7 (8)Mid-Range Attempts Allowed12.15 (10)
39.09 (4)Mid-Range FG%35.35 (11)
36.54 (3)Mid-Range FG% Allowed37.55 (9)

Three Point Shooting
Mercury
(40 game/s)		 Mystics
(41 game/s)
4.25 (2)Corner 3 Attempts2.8 (10)
5.2 (5)Corner 3 Attempts Allowed6.07 (12)
38.82 (8)Corner 3 FG%29.57 (13)
36.06 (6)Corner 3 FG% Allowed31.73 (1)
22.95 (4)ATB3 Attempts14.32 (13)
17.35 (10)ATB3 Attempts Allowed16.17 (6)
32.9 (9)ATB3 FG%34.24 (3)
32.28 (4)ATB3 FG% Allowed33.03 (8)


Straight Up Records (SU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h22-16-210-5-13-2-05-5-04-4-11-1-02-0-07-3-07-3-2
Mercury 26-1412-43-27-34-51-12-08-27-5
Mystics 1h11-30-03-5-05-7-00-6-03-12-01-2-01-2-05-7-04-6-0
Mystics 16-255-35-72-44-111-20-35-73-7

Against the Spread Records (ATS)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h23-16-19-7-03-1-15-5-06-3-01-1-02-0-06-4-08-3-1
Mercury 22-18-08-8-04-1-06-4-04-5-00-2-02-0-05-5-06-6-0
Mystics 1h15-26-03-5-06-6-00-6-06-9-01-2-01-2-07-5-04-6-0
Mystics 19-22-02-6-07-5-02-4-08-7-01-2-02-1-04-8-07-3-0

Over/Under Records (OU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h16-24-05-11-01-4-07-3-03-6-01-1-00-2-05-5-05-7-0
Mercury 17-23-08-8-01-4-05-5-03-6-01-1-01-1-06-4-05-7-0
Mystics 1h16-24-14-3-16-6-01-5-05-10-01-2-02-1-03-9-04-6-0
Mystics 20-21-05-3-06-6-01-5-08-7-02-1-01-2-06-6-04-6-0

Team Total Records (TT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h16-24-04-12-03-2-05-5-04-5-01-1-01-1-03-7-07-5-0
Mercury 20-19-18-8-03-2-06-4-03-5-10-2-02-0-04-5-18-4-0
Mystics 1h15-25-12-6-07-4-10-6-06-9-01-1-12-1-05-7-06-4-0
Mystics 19-22-04-4-07-5-01-5-07-8-01-2-01-2-05-7-04-6-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h12-26-23-13-01-4-06-4-02-5-20-2-00-2-03-7-04-7-1
Mercury 17-22-18-7-11-4-06-4-02-7-01-1-00-2-05-4-17-5-0
Mystics 1h19-19-35-3-06-5-13-3-05-8-22-1-01-2-04-5-34-6-0
Mystics 21-20-05-3-06-6-03-3-07-8-02-1-02-1-07-5-03-7-0


ATS Range Records
TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Mercury1-2-0 (33.3%)1-0-0 (100%)4-3-0 (57.1%)3-1-0 (75%)8-6-0 (57.1%)2-3-0 (40%)3-3-0 (50%)
Mystics3-1-0 (75%)8-4-0 (66.7%)4-5-0 (44.4%)0-2-0 (0%)2-9-0 (18.2%)2-1-0 (66.7%)0-0-0 (-)