Mystics @ Wings [ Wings +2.5 / 164.5 ]

Mystics | 8-8 (50%)
Wings | 4-13 (23.5%)

Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Wings (+2.5) a 49.9-50.3% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 164.5 around 53.1-51.6% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Wings have a 40.9% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 50.6% chance of going over the total.

Mystics Situational Notes
Rest advantage
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Systems
Back road team off win w/ more rest

Wings Situational Notes
In season revenge
Rest disadvantage

Baller Systems
Fade a small fav (3.5 or less) off a win

Mystics Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
7/3MIN-
-		-WAS---
6/28DALWAS -2.5
DAL +2.5
164.5WAS---
6/26LVA [ 83 ]WAS +7
LVA -7
160WAS [ 94 ]+11+18+17
6/24WAS [ 68 ]WAS +7.5
MIN -7.5
156MIN [ 64 ]+4+11.5-24
6/22WAS [ 91 ]WAS -6
DAL +6
167DAL [ 88 ]+3-3+12
6/20ATL [ 92 ]WAS +9.5
ATL -9.5
157WAS [ 91 ]-1+8.5+26
6/17CHI [ 72 ]WAS -4.5
CHI +4.5
155.5WAS [ 79 ]+7+2.5-4.5
6/15WAS [ 56 ]WAS +4
ATL -4
158ATL [ 89 ]-33-29-13
6/8WAS [ 104 ]WAS -8
CON +8
155.5CON [ 67 ]+37+29+15.5
6/5WAS [ 78 ]WAS +13
NYL -13
160NYL [ 86 ]-8+5+4
Wings Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
7/3DAL-
-		-PHO---
6/28DALDAL +2.5
WAS -2.5
164.5WAS---
6/27DAL [ 86 ]DAL +1.5
IND -1.5
166.5IND [ 94 ]-8-6.5+13.5
6/24DAL [ 68 ]DAL +8.5
ATL -8.5
169.5ATL [ 55 ]+13+21.5-46.5
6/22WAS [ 91 ]DAL +6
WAS -6
167DAL [ 88 ]-3+3+12
6/20CON [ 83 ]DAL -4.5
CON +4.5
164.5DAL [ 86 ]+3-1.5+4.5
6/17DAL [ 80 ]DAL -3.5
GSV +3.5
164.5GSV [ 71 ]+9+5.5-13.5
6/13LVA [ 88 ]DAL +5.5
LVA -5.5
170DAL [ 84 ]-4+1.5+2
6/11PHO [ 93 ]DAL +7
PHO -7
167DAL [ 80 ]-13-6+6
6/8DAL [ 65 ]DAL +13
MIN -13
166.5MIN [ 81 ]-16-3-20.5
Historical Matchups
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU MarginPaceOrtgDrtgNetTot
8/10DAL-
-		-WAS----
-
-
-
-
6/28DALDAL +2.5
WAS -2.5
164.5WAS----
-
-
-
-
6/22WAS [ 91 ]DAL +6
WAS -6
167DAL [ 88 ]-3+3+1292.8
103
106.6
-3.5
162.1
9/3DAL [ 86 ]DAL -5.5
WAS +5.5
174.5WAS [ 90 ]-4-9.5+1.592.7
111.4
116.5
-5.2
176
6/23WAS [ 92 ]DAL +1
WAS -1
163DAL [ 84 ]-8-7+1391.7
109.9
120.4
-10.5
176
6/22WAS [ 97 ]DAL -3
WAS +3
159.5DAL [ 69 ]-28-31+6.5100.2
82.6
116.1
-33.5
166
8/20WAS [ 84 ]DAL -5
WAS +5
166.5DAL [ 97 ]+13+8+14.5103.1
112.9
97.8
15.1
181
7/28DAL [ 90 ]DAL -9
WAS +9
165WAS [ 62 ]+28+19-1394.8
114
78.5
35.5
152
7/2DAL [ 89 ]DAL -6.5
WAS +6.5
162.5WAS [ 72 ]+17+10.5-1.599.2
107.7
87.1
20.6
161
6/2WAS [ 75 ]DAL +7.5
WAS -7.5
168DAL [ 74 ]-1+6.5-1997.1
91.5
92.7
-1.2
149
7/28DAL [ 77 ]DAL -1.5
WAS +1.5
158WAS [ 87 ]-10-11.5+691.9
100.6
113.6
-13.1
164

Efficiency
Mystics
(16 game/s)		 Wings
(17 game/s)
0.5 (7)Win Percentage0.24 (12)
0.57 (5)ATS Win%0.4 (10)
0.43 (10)OU%0.53 (8)
99.95 (10)Offensive Rating103.35 (7)
100.75 (7)Defensive Rating108.35 (11)
94.81 (7)Pace94.13 (10)
1.17 (10)A/TO Ratio1.34 (6)

Four Factors
Mystics
(16 game/s)		 Wings
(17 game/s)
47.95 (8)EFG%45.77 (12)
47.76 (6)EFG% Allowed51.76 (11)
38.54 (1)FT Rate29.38 (7)
33.4 (10)FT Rate Allowed37.22 (13)
26.94 (5)OReb%31.9 (1)
22.52 (2)OReb% Allowed25.99 (8)
19.6 (10)TO Rate18.17 (5)
18 (7)TO Rate Forced17.93 (8)

Scoring
Mystics
(16 game/s)		 Wings
(17 game/s)
79.69 (10)PPG81.65 (7)
80.13 (8)PPG Allowed85.65 (10)
16 (6)Pts off TO15.18 (9)
14.63 (3)Pts off TO Allowed16.35 (11)
10.31 (8)2nd Chance Pts13.41 (1)
9.69 (3)2nd Chance Pts Allowed9.94 (4)
10.5 (10)Fast Break Pts11.35 (4)
7.88 (1)Fast Break Pts Allowed13.24 (12)

Inside the Arc
Mystics
(16 game/s)		 Wings
(17 game/s)
36.75 (3)Paint Attempts36.82 (2)
28.13 (1)Paint Attempts Allowed33.24 (7)
51.19 (8)Paint FG%47.76 (11)
55.11 (11)Paint FG% Allowed51.33 (6)
10.81 (4)Mid-Range Attempts13.65 (2)
12.25 (10)Mid-Range Attempts Allowed11.53 (5)
29.48 (13)Mid-Range FG%39.66 (5)
35.2 (5)Mid-Range FG% Allowed44.9 (13)

Three Point Shooting
Mystics
(16 game/s)		 Wings
(17 game/s)
3.06 (9)Corner 3 Attempts2.18 (12)
7.44 (13)Corner 3 Attempts Allowed5.47 (6)
30.61 (12)Corner 3 FG%32.43 (10)
31.09 (1)Corner 3 FG% Allowed39.78 (10)
13.31 (13)ATB3 Attempts18.12 (10)
17.63 (9)ATB3 Attempts Allowed14.65 (4)
36.62 (1)ATB3 FG%30.84 (10)
29.43 (3)ATB3 FG% Allowed33.73 (9)


Straight Up Records (SU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mystics 1h3-11-01-1-01-4-00-3-01-3-0----1-2-02-2-0
Mystics 6-82-02-32-10-4--1-21-3
Wings 1h5-9-11-1-00-3-12-1-02-4-00-0-00-0-04-2-00-4-0
Wings 3-121-10-42-10-60-00-03-30-4

Against the Spread Records (ATS)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mystics 1h4-10-01-1-02-3-00-3-01-3-0----1-2-02-2-0
Mystics 8-6-01-1-03-2-02-1-02-2-0----1-2-03-1-0
Wings 1h5-9-11-1-01-2-11-2-02-4-00-0-00-0-03-3-00-3-1
Wings 6-9-01-1-00-4-01-2-04-2-00-0-00-0-03-3-01-3-0

Over/Under Records (OU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mystics 1h5-8-11-0-12-3-01-2-01-3-0----1-2-01-3-0
Mystics 6-8-02-0-02-3-01-2-01-3-0----1-2-01-3-0
Wings 1h7-6-21-1-02-1-12-1-02-3-10-0-00-0-02-4-01-2-1
Wings 8-7-01-1-01-3-03-0-03-3-00-0-00-0-02-4-01-3-0

Team Total Records (TT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mystics 1h5-9-01-1-02-3-00-3-02-2-0----1-2-02-2-0
Mystics 7-7-02-0-03-2-01-2-01-3-0----1-2-02-2-0
Wings 1h4-10-10-2-01-2-11-2-02-4-00-0-00-0-01-5-01-2-1
Wings 7-7-10-2-01-3-03-0-03-2-10-0-00-0-02-4-01-2-1

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mystics 1h7-6-11-1-03-1-12-1-01-3-0----1-1-11-3-0
Mystics 6-8-01-1-02-3-01-2-02-2-0----1-2-00-4-0
Wings 1h7-6-21-1-02-0-22-1-02-4-00-0-00-0-02-4-01-1-2
Wings 9-6-01-1-02-2-03-0-03-3-00-0-00-0-02-4-02-2-0


ATS Range Records
TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Mystics2-0-0 (100%)4-1-0 (80%)1-3-0 (25%)0-0-0 (-)2-2-0 (50%)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)
Wings2-1-0 (66.7%)1-2-0 (33.3%)2-3-0 (40%)0-2-0 (0%)2-2-0 (50%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)