Sky @ Sun [ Sun -2.5 / 157.5 ]

Sky | 8-23 (25.8%)
Sun | 5-26 (16.1%)

Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Sun (-2.5) a 36.4-52.1% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 157.5 around 55.2-52% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Sun have a 57.6% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 59% chance of going over the total.

Sky Situational Notes
Rest advantage
Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller Systems
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• Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Sun Situational Notes
Double digit, in season revenge
1st game home off long road trip (at least three games)
Rest disadvantage

Sky Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
8/15CHI-
-		-GSV---
8/13CONCHI +2.5
CON -2.5
157.5CHI---
8/9IND [ 92 ]CHI +10
IND -10
163.5CHI [ 70 ]-22-12-1.5
8/7CHI [ 65 ]CHI +11
ATL -11
161ATL [ 86 ]-21-10-10
8/5CHI [ 78 ]CHI +5.5
WAS -5.5
156WAS [ 64 ]+14+19.5-14
8/3CHI [ 67 ]CHI +12.5
PHO -12.5
164.5PHO [ 83 ]-16-3.5-14.5
8/1CHI [ 66 ]CHI +4.5
GSV -4.5
153GSV [ 73 ]-7-2.5-14
7/29WAS [ 103 ]CHI +7.5
WAS -7.5
156.5CHI [ 86 ]-17-9.5+32.5
7/27CHI [ 78 ]CHI +11.5
IND -11.5
156IND [ 93 ]-15-3.5+15
7/24CHI [ 57 ]CHI +11
SEA -11
154SEA [ 95 ]-38-27-2
Sun Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
8/17CON-
-		-IND---
8/13CONCON -2.5
CHI +2.5
157.5CHI---
8/11GSV [ 74 ]CON +8.5
GSV -8.5
154CON [ 57 ]-17-8.5-23
8/10LVA [ 94 ]CON +11
LVA -11
167.5CON [ 86 ]-8+3+12.5
8/7LAS [ 102 ]CON +10
LAS -10
175CON [ 91 ]-11-1+18
8/5PHO [ 82 ]CON +15
PHO -15
169CON [ 66 ]-16-1-21
8/3CON [ 78 ]CON +11.5
NYL -11.5
171NYL [ 87 ]-9+2.5-6
8/1CON [ 78 ]CON +12
NYL -12
172NYL [ 62 ]+16+28-32
7/28CON [ 85 ]CON +11
SEA -11
157.5SEA [ 101 ]-16-5+28.5
7/27CON [ 95 ]CON +4.5
GSV -4.5
156.5GSV [ 64 ]+31+35.5+2.5
Historical Matchups
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU MarginPaceOrtgDrtgNetTot
9/3CHI-
-		-CON----
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-
8/23CHI-
-		-CON----
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-
8/13CONCON -2.5
CHI +2.5
157.5CHI----
-		-
-		-
-		-
-		-
-
6/15CON [ 66 ]CON -1.5
CHI +1.5
157CHI [ 78 ]-12-13.5-1386.1
-		92
-		108.7
-		-16.7
-		144
-
9/19CON [ 87 ]CON -15
CHI +15
152.5CHI [ 54 ]+33+18-11.587.3
-		119.5
-		74.2
-		45.3
-		141
-
8/23CON [ 82 ]CON -11
CHI +11
153.5CHI [ 80 ]+2-9+8.595.8
-		102.7
-		100.2
-		2.5
-		162
-
6/12CHI [ 75 ]CON -7.5
CHI +7.5
153.5CON [ 83 ]+8+0.5+4.589.4
-		111.4
-		100.7
-		10.7
-		158
-
5/25CHI [ 82 ]CON -5
CHI +5
160.5CON [ 86 ]+4-1+7.584.9
-		121.6
-		115.9
-		5.7
-		168
-

Efficiency
Sky
(30 game/s)		 Sun
(30 game/s)
0.27 (11)Win Percentage0.17 (13)
0.43 (11)ATS Win%0.5 (6)
0.52 (4)OU%0.48 (10)
96.45 (13)Offensive Rating97.11 (12)
109.28 (11)Defensive Rating110.38 (13)
94.8 (6)Pace93.16 (12)
1.14 (13)A/TO Ratio1.18 (12)

Four Factors
Sky
(30 game/s)		 Sun
(30 game/s)
47.5 (10)EFG%45.38 (13)
51.63 (10)EFG% Allowed52.98 (13)
24.6 (11)FT Rate26.61 (9)
29.5 (9)FT Rate Allowed33.18 (12)
28.42 (2)OReb%23.51 (11)
25.66 (9)OReb% Allowed28.3 (13)
21.08 (13)TO Rate18.94 (9)
15.78 (13)TO Rate Forced19.18 (4)

Scoring
Sky
(30 game/s)		 Sun
(30 game/s)
76.4 (12)PPG74.5 (13)
86.1 (10)PPG Allowed86.7 (12)
10.97 (13)Pts off TO15.9 (7)
19.23 (13)Pts off TO Allowed16.47 (11)
11.27 (4)2nd Chance Pts10.4 (10)
10.7 (7)2nd Chance Pts Allowed11.5 (11)
9.23 (11)Fast Break Pts10.3 (8)
13.87 (13)Fast Break Pts Allowed11.3 (9)

Inside the Arc
Sky
(30 game/s)		 Sun
(30 game/s)
36.77 (3)Paint Attempts31.4 (11)
33.17 (5)Paint Attempts Allowed32.57 (4)
47.96 (13)Paint FG%48.2 (12)
52.66 (9)Paint FG% Allowed57.73 (13)
9.63 (7)Mid-Range Attempts13.63 (1)
12.07 (8)Mid-Range Attempts Allowed10.6 (2)
39.79 (6)Mid-Range FG%38.88 (7)
38.4 (10)Mid-Range FG% Allowed37.11 (6)

Three Point Shooting
Sky
(30 game/s)		 Sun
(30 game/s)
2.43 (11)Corner 3 Attempts1.9 (13)
5.97 (12)Corner 3 Attempts Allowed5.63 (10)
47.95 (1)Corner 3 FG%43.86 (3)
40.78 (12)Corner 3 FG% Allowed35.5 (5)
18.33 (12)ATB3 Attempts19.2 (9)
17.43 (10)ATB3 Attempts Allowed16.57 (6)
31.64 (12)ATB3 FG%29.34 (13)
34.99 (13)ATB3 FG% Allowed34.21 (12)


Straight Up Records (SU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sky 1h12-17-1--6-7-1--5-10-00-2-01-1-01-5-14-5-0
Sky 8-22-4-10-3-120-21-11-64-5
Sun 1h9-20-10-1-04-9-0--5-10-11-1-10-3-04-3-12-11-0
Sun 5-250-14-9-1-151-20-33-51-12

Against the Spread Records (ATS)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sky 1h15-14-1--7-7-0--7-7-10-2-02-0-03-3-15-4-0
Sky 13-17-0--4-10-0--8-7-01-1-02-0-03-4-06-3-0
Sun 1h14-15-10-1-07-6-0--7-8-13-0-00-3-05-2-14-9-0
Sun 15-15-00-1-08-5-0--7-9-03-0-01-2-05-3-06-7-0

Over/Under Records (OU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sky 1h14-16-0--7-7-0--7-8-01-1-01-1-02-5-03-6-0
Sky 15-14-1--7-7-0--8-6-12-0-01-1-04-3-04-5-0
Sun 1h17-13-00-1-07-6-0--10-6-03-0-02-1-04-4-08-5-0
Sun 14-15-10-1-07-5-1--7-9-02-1-02-1-03-5-08-4-1

Team Total Records (TT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sky 1h14-16-0--7-7-0--6-9-01-1-02-0-02-5-03-6-0
Sky 17-13-0--7-7-0--9-6-02-0-02-0-04-3-06-3-0
Sun 1h14-16-00-1-07-6-0--7-9-03-0-01-2-05-3-05-8-0
Sun 14-15-10-1-09-4-0--5-10-12-1-02-1-03-4-17-6-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sky 1h10-20-0--5-9-0--5-10-01-1-01-1-01-6-03-6-0
Sky 14-14-2--6-6-2--8-7-01-1-01-1-02-5-02-5-2
Sun 1h12-18-00-1-05-8-0--7-9-00-3-02-1-00-8-09-4-0
Sun 13-17-01-0-04-9-0--8-8-01-2-01-2-02-6-08-5-0


ATS Range Records
TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Sky3-12-0 (20%)4-2-0 (66.7%)3-4-0 (42.9%)3-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Sun13-9-0 (59.1%)0-3-0 (0%)2-3-0 (40%)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)