Sun @ Mystics [ Mystics -6.5 / 157.5 ]

Sun | 2-6 (25%)
Mystics | 3-6 (33.3%)

Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Mystics (-6.5) a 64.1-60.6% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 157.5 around 49-49% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Mystics have a 71.6% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 46.4% chance of going over the total.

Sun Situational Notes
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
In season revenge
Rest disadvantage
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Systems
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• Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Mystics Situational Notes
Rest advantage
Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Sun Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/15CON-
-		-CHI---
6/8WASCON +6.5
WAS -6.5
157.5CON---
6/6CON [ 84 ]CON +10.5
ATL -10.5
160ATL [ 76 ]+8+18.50
6/1NYL [ 100 ]CON +18.5
NYL -18.5
164.5CON [ 52 ]-48-29.5-12.5
5/30IND [ 83 ]CON +12.5
IND -12.5
158CON [ 85 ]+2+14.5+10
5/27CON [ 87 ]CON +4.5
DAL -4.5
163.5DAL [ 109 ]-22-17.5+32.5
5/25ATL [ 79 ]CON +7
ATL -7
158CON [ 55 ]-24-17-24
5/23MIN [ 76 ]CON +16
MIN -16
156CON [ 70 ]-6+10-10
5/20CON [ 62 ]CON +14
LVA -14
166.5LVA [ 87 ]-25-11-17.5
5/18CON [ 85 ]CON +3
WAS -3
158.5WAS [ 90 ]-5-2+16.5
Mystics Schedule
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
6/15WAS-
-		-ATL---
6/8WASWAS -6.5
CON +6.5
157.5CON---
6/5WAS [ 78 ]WAS +13
NYL -13
160NYL [ 86 ]-8+5+4
6/3IND [ 85 ]WAS +5
IND -5
161.5WAS [ 76 ]-9-4-0.5
5/30WAS [ 63 ]WAS +8
NYL -8
164NYL [ 85 ]-22-14-16
5/28WAS [ 83 ]WAS +4
IND -4
166IND [ 77 ]+6+10-6
5/25PHO [ 68 ]WAS +5.5
PHO -5.5
163WAS [ 62 ]-6-0.5-33
5/23LVA [ 75 ]WAS +14.5
LVA -14.5
165.5WAS [ 72 ]-3+11.5-18.5
5/21GSV [ 76 ]WAS -4.5
GSV +4.5
162WAS [ 74 ]-2-6.5-12
5/18CON [ 85 ]WAS -3
CON +3
158.5WAS [ 90 ]+5+2+16.5
Historical Matchups
Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU MarginPaceOrtgDrtgNetTot
8/21CON-
-		-WAS----
-
-
-
-
8/19WAS-
-		-CON----
-
-
-
-
6/8WASWAS -6.5
CON +6.5
157.5CON----
-
-
-
-
5/18CON [ 85 ]WAS -3
CON +3
158.5WAS [ 90 ]+5+2+16.595.1
113.5
107.2
6.3
175
8/31WAS [ 85 ]WAS +8
CON -8
153.5CON [ 96 ]-11-3+27.593.6
108.9
123
-14.1
181
6/27WAS [ 91 ]WAS +10.5
CON -10.5
152CON [ 94 ]-3+7.5+3394.9
104.2
107.7
-3.4
167.5
6/4CON [ 76 ]WAS +13
CON -13
152WAS [ 59 ]-17-4-1786
82.4
106.1
-23.7
135
5/17CON [ 84 ]WAS +8
CON -8
157.5WAS [ 77 ]-7+1+3.593.9
98.4
107.4
-8.9
161
8/22WAS [ 64 ]WAS +3.5
CON -3.5
159.5CON [ 68 ]-4-0.5-27.590.4
84.9
90.2
-5.3
132
7/9CON [ 92 ]WAS +4.5
CON -4.5
160.5WAS [ 84 ]-8-3.5+15.594.7
106.4
116.6
-10.1
176
5/23WAS [ 81 ]WAS -5
CON +5
158CON [ 88 ]-7-12+1191.3
106.4
115.6
-9.2
169

Efficiency
Sun
(8 game/s)		 Mystics
(9 game/s)
0.25 (12)Win Percentage0.33 (8)
0.38 (11)ATS Win%0.56 (5)
0.43 (8)OU%0.33 (12)
93.88 (12)Offensive Rating95.67 (11)
111.6 (12)Defensive Rating101.54 (8)
93.38 (13)Pace95.95 (8)
1.04 (11)A/TO Ratio1.03 (12)

Four Factors
Sun
(8 game/s)		 Mystics
(9 game/s)
45.59 (12)EFG%46.92 (8)
54.31 (12)EFG% Allowed46.3 (3)
28.43 (9)FT Rate37.15 (1)
35.88 (11)FT Rate Allowed37.48 (13)
22.46 (8)OReb%24.66 (6)
25.51 (9)OReb% Allowed23.03 (3)
21.2 (11)TO Rate20.6 (10)
18.81 (7)TO Rate Forced16.76 (12)

Scoring
Sun
(8 game/s)		 Mystics
(9 game/s)
72.5 (13)PPG76.89 (11)
87.5 (11)PPG Allowed80.78 (7)
15.5 (9)Pts off TO12.33 (11)
18.5 (12)Pts off TO Allowed14.78 (7)
8.63 (10)2nd Chance Pts10.78 (6)
10 (4)2nd Chance Pts Allowed10.67 (8)
7.5 (13)Fast Break Pts8.44 (11)
12.88 (10)Fast Break Pts Allowed6.78 (1)

Inside the Arc
Sun
(8 game/s)		 Mystics
(9 game/s)
30.75 (10)Paint Attempts35.56 (6)
32.13 (6)Paint Attempts Allowed28 (1)
48.37 (11)Paint FG%51.25 (7)
57.2 (13)Paint FG% Allowed53.57 (11)
12.63 (3)Mid-Range Attempts10.56 (4)
9.63 (1)Mid-Range Attempts Allowed10 (2)
42.57 (4)Mid-Range FG%27.37 (12)
28.57 (1)Mid-Range FG% Allowed34.44 (3)

Three Point Shooting
Sun
(8 game/s)		 Mystics
(9 game/s)
1.75 (13)Corner 3 Attempts3.11 (7)
5.25 (7)Corner 3 Attempts Allowed8.33 (13)
35.71 (6)Corner 3 FG%32.14 (11)
45.24 (12)Corner 3 FG% Allowed32 (5)
18.5 (10)ATB3 Attempts13.78 (13)
16.75 (7)ATB3 Attempts Allowed19.44 (12)
28.38 (13)ATB3 FG%33.87 (5)
38.06 (11)ATB3 FG% Allowed26.86 (3)


Straight Up Records (SU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h4-4-0--2-2-0--2-2-0----2-1-01-2-0
Sun 2-6-1-3-1-3--1-21-2
Mystics 1h2-7-0--1-3-00-2-01-2-0----0-1-02-2-0
Mystics 3-6-2-21-10-3--0-11-3

Against the Spread Records (ATS)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h4-3-1--2-2-0--2-1-1----2-0-11-2-0
Sun 3-5-0--1-3-0--2-2-0----2-1-01-2-0
Mystics 1h3-6-0--2-2-00-2-01-2-0----0-1-02-2-0
Mystics 5-4-0--3-1-01-1-01-2-0----0-1-03-1-0

Over/Under Records (OU)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h5-3-0--2-2-0--3-1-0----2-1-01-2-0
Sun 3-4-1--2-1-1--1-3-0----1-2-01-1-1
Mystics 1h3-6-0--2-2-01-1-00-3-0----0-1-01-3-0
Mystics 3-6-0--2-2-01-1-00-3-0----0-1-01-3-0

Team Total Records (TT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h4-4-0--2-2-0--2-2-0----2-1-01-2-0
Sun 4-3-1--3-1-0--1-2-1----1-1-12-1-0
Mystics 1h3-6-0--2-2-00-2-01-2-0----0-1-02-2-0
Mystics 4-5-0--3-1-01-1-00-3-0----0-1-02-2-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)
TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h3-5-0--2-2-0--1-3-0----0-3-02-1-0
Sun 3-5-0--2-2-0--1-3-0----0-3-01-2-0
Mystics 1h3-5-1--2-1-11-1-00-3-0----0-0-11-3-0
Mystics 3-6-0--1-3-01-1-01-2-0----0-1-00-4-0


ATS Range Records
TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Sun3-2-0 (60%)0-1-0 (0%)0-2-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Mystics2-0-0 (100%)1-1-0 (50%)1-2-0 (33.3%)0-0-0 (-)1-1-0 (50%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)