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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Mystics (+8.5) a 44-69% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 161.5 around 54.7-50.9% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Mystics have a 36.6% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 56.7% chance of going over the total.


Liberty Situational Notes
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller Systems
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Mystics Situational Notes
In season revenge
Coming off an overtime game

Baller Systems
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Liberty Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/19NYLNYL -2
ATL +2
160ATL---
9/17WASNYL -8.5
WAS +8.5
161.5NYL---
9/15NYL [ 79 ]NYL -5.5
MIN +5.5
160MIN [ 88 ]-9-14.5+7
9/12DAL [ 67 ]NYL -10.5
DAL +10.5
177.5NYL [ 99 ]+32+21.5-11.5
9/10DAL [ 91 ]NYL -10.5
DAL +10.5
176NYL [ 105 ]+14+3.5+20
9/8NYL [ 75 ]NYL -9.5
LVA +9.5
168LVA [ 71 ]+4-5.5-22
9/5NYL [ 77 ]NYL -8
SEA +8
165SEA [ 70 ]+7-1-18
8/30SEA [ 85 ]NYL -3.5
SEA +3.5
162.5NYL [ 98 ]+13+9.5+20.5
8/28LAS [ 94 ]NYL -13.5
LAS +13.5
166NYL [ 88 ]-6-19.5+16
8/26PHO [ 70 ]NYL -6
PHO +6
166NYL [ 84 ]+14+8-12

Mystics Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/19WASWAS -3.5
IND +3.5
164.5IND---
9/17WASWAS +8.5
NYL -8.5
161.5NYL---
9/15WAS [ 73 ]WAS +1
ATL -1
154ATL [ 76 ]-3-2-5
9/13ATL [ 69 ]WAS +4.5
ATL -4.5
155WAS [ 72 ]+3+7.5-14
9/11CHI [ 58 ]WAS -1.5
CHI +1.5
162.5WAS [ 89 ]+31+29.5-15.5
9/8WAS [ 71 ]WAS +7.5
MIN -7.5
161MIN [ 78 ]-7+0.5-12
9/5PHO [ 77 ]WAS +5.5
PHO -5.5
165.5WAS [ 90 ]+13+18.5+1.5
9/3DAL [ 86 ]WAS +5.5
DAL -5.5
174.5WAS [ 90 ]+4+9.5+1.5
8/31WAS [ 85 ]WAS +8
CON -8
153.5CON [ 96 ]-11-3+27.5
8/28CHI [ 70 ]WAS -2
CHI +2
157WAS [ 74 ]+4+2-13

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/17WASWAS +8.5
NYL -8.5
161.5NYL--------
6/9NYL [ 93 ]WAS +14
NYL -14
156WAS [ 88 ]-5+9+2594.7111.5117.8-6.3181
5/31NYL [ 90 ]WAS +13
NYL -13
159.5WAS [ 79 ]-11+2+9.596.198.7112.4-13.7169
5/14WAS [ 80 ]WAS +11.5
NYL -11.5
164NYL [ 85 ]-5+6.5+198.197.8104-6.1165
9/19NYL [ 90 ]WAS +10.5
NYL -10.5
161WAS [ 85 ]-5+5.5+1496.296101.6-5.6158.5
9/15NYL [ 90 ]WAS +10.5
NYL -10.5
163WAS [ 75 ]-15-4.5+287.8102.6123.1-20.5165
9/10NYL [ 88 ]WAS +10
NYL -10
161.5WAS [ 90 ]+2+12+16.589.9120.1117.42.7178
7/21WAS [ 87 ]WAS +10.5
NYL -10.5
163.5NYL [ 96 ]-9+1.5+19.5100.9103.4114.1-10.7183
6/25NYL [ 89 ]WAS +7
NYL -7
162.5WAS [ 88 ]-1+6+14.593.3102.5103.7-1.2160.3
5/19WAS [ 80 ]WAS +2
NYL -2
163NYL [ 64 ]+16+18-1999.296.877.419.4144


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h24-11-412-5-21-0-09-6-22-0-02-0-11-1-18-4-06-2-3
Liberty 31-815-41-013-42-03-03-09-38-3
Mystics 1h19-16-30-2-09-7-02-0-08-7-32-0-00-2-07-3-14-4-0
Mystics 13-252-02-142-07-111-11-13-85-3

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h16-23-06-13-01-0-07-10-02-0-01-2-01-2-05-7-04-7-0
Liberty 19-20-04-15-01-0-012-5-02-0-02-1-02-1-04-8-07-4-0
Mystics 1h26-10-20-2-010-5-12-0-014-3-12-0-00-1-18-2-15-2-1
Mystics 25-12-12-0-08-7-12-0-013-5-01-1-02-0-06-4-17-1-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h16-23-08-11-01-0-07-10-00-2-01-2-02-1-05-7-05-6-0
Liberty 19-20-010-9-01-0-08-9-00-2-02-1-03-0-04-8-06-5-0
Mystics 1h16-21-11-1-07-8-11-1-07-11-01-1-01-0-15-6-03-4-1
Mystics 19-19-01-1-08-8-00-2-010-8-01-1-02-0-05-6-02-6-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h18-21-07-12-01-0-09-8-01-1-01-2-02-1-04-8-05-6-0
Liberty 19-20-08-11-01-0-09-8-01-1-02-1-03-0-04-8-06-5-0
Mystics 1h20-15-31-1-09-5-22-0-08-9-12-0-01-0-16-4-13-3-2
Mystics 19-18-11-1-08-8-01-1-09-8-11-1-02-0-04-6-13-5-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h19-19-111-8-01-0-07-9-10-2-01-1-12-1-06-6-05-5-1
Liberty 15-24-08-11-00-1-07-10-00-2-01-2-01-2-02-10-04-7-0
Mystics 1h11-25-22-0-04-10-20-2-05-13-00-2-01-0-13-8-02-5-1
Mystics 14-24-01-1-07-9-00-2-06-12-00-2-02-0-03-8-02-6-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Mystics6-2-1 (75%)4-3-0 (57.1%)10-6-0 (62.5%)4-1-0 (80%)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Liberty0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)2-0-0 (100%)2-0-0 (100%)6-4-0 (60%)4-3-0 (57.1%)5-13-0 (27.8%)