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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Dream (-4.5) a 37.2-25.2% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 155 around 51.6-53% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Dream have a 32.7% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 51.3% chance of going over the total.


Mystics Situational Notes
Rest disadvantage

Baller Systems
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Dream Situational Notes
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
Rest advantage
Double digit, in season revenge

Mystics Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/15WASWAS +1
ATL -1
154ATL---
9/13ATLWAS +4.5
ATL -4.5
155WAS---
9/11CHI [ 58 ]WAS -1.5
CHI +1.5
162.5WAS [ 89 ]+31+29.5-15.5
9/8WAS [ 71 ]WAS +7.5
MIN -7.5
161MIN [ 78 ]-7+0.5-12
9/5PHO [ 77 ]WAS +5.5
PHO -5.5
165.5WAS [ 90 ]+13+18.5+1.5
9/3DAL [ 86 ]WAS +5.5
DAL -5.5
174.5WAS [ 90 ]+4+9.5+1.5
8/31WAS [ 85 ]WAS +8
CON -8
153.5CON [ 96 ]-11-3+27.5
8/28CHI [ 70 ]WAS -2
CHI +2
157WAS [ 74 ]+4+2-13
8/26SEA [ 72 ]WAS +10.5
SEA -10.5
161WAS [ 74 ]+2+12.5-15
8/23WAS [ 80 ]WAS -4.5
LAS +4.5
164LAS [ 74 ]+6+1.5-10

Dream Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/15WASATL -1
WAS +1
154ATL---
9/13ATLATL -4.5
WAS +4.5
155WAS---
9/10ATL [ 64 ]ATL +5.5
MIN -5.5
155MIN [ 76 ]-12-6.5-15
9/8IND [ 104 ]ATL +5.5
IND -5.5
170ATL [ 100 ]-4+1.5+34
9/6ATL [ 107 ]ATL -2.5
DAL +2.5
170.5DAL [ 96 ]+11+8.5+32.5
9/3PHO [ 74 ]ATL +2
PHO -2
160.5ATL [ 66 ]-8-6-20.5
9/1LAS [ 62 ]ATL -4.5
LAS +4.5
163.5ATL [ 80 ]+18+13.5-21.5
8/30LVA [ 83 ]ATL +10.5
LVA -10.5
166ATL [ 72 ]-11-0.5-11
8/28SEA [ 85 ]ATL +9
SEA -9
155.5ATL [ 81 ]-4+5+10.5
8/26ATL [ 79 ]ATL +1.5
IND -1.5
167IND [ 84 ]-5-3.5-4

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/15WASATL -1
WAS +1
154ATL--------
9/13ATLATL -4.5
WAS +4.5
155WAS--------
6/11ATL [ 68 ]ATL -6
WAS +6
156.5WAS [ 87 ]-19-25-1.588.492.3118.1-25.8155
5/29WAS [ 67 ]ATL -3
WAS +3
163.5ATL [ 73 ]+6+3-23.595.39284.47.6140
9/8WAS [ 75 ]ATL +6
WAS -6
162ATL [ 80 ]+5+11-792.6103.797.26.5155
7/30ATL [ 80 ]ATL -8.5
WAS +8.5
167WAS [ 73 ]+7-1.5-1499.196.988.48.5153
6/30ATL [ 94 ]ATL +1.5
WAS -1.5
164WAS [ 89 ]+5+6.5+1997.3115.9109.76.2183
6/28WAS [ 109 ]ATL +5
WAS -5
163ATL [ 86 ]-23-18+32104.199.1125.6-26.5195


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mystics 1h18-15-30-2-09-6-02-0-07-7-32-0-00-2-07-3-13-4-0
Mystics 12-242-02-132-06-111-11-13-84-3
Dream 1h9-26-11-4-02-11-03-2-13-9-00-0-00-0-01-8-03-5-0
Dream 12-243-24-94-21-110-00-02-73-5

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mystics 1h25-9-20-2-010-4-12-0-013-3-12-0-00-1-18-2-14-2-1
Mystics 24-11-12-0-08-6-12-0-012-5-01-1-02-0-06-4-16-1-0
Dream 1h13-19-41-4-02-10-13-3-07-2-30-0-00-0-03-5-13-4-1
Dream 19-16-12-3-05-7-14-2-08-4-00-0-00-0-03-6-05-3-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mystics 1h16-19-11-1-07-7-11-1-07-10-01-1-01-0-15-6-03-3-1
Mystics 19-17-01-1-08-7-00-2-010-7-01-1-02-0-05-6-02-5-0
Dream 1h14-20-24-1-05-7-13-3-02-9-10-0-00-0-04-4-11-7-0
Dream 16-19-12-2-15-8-04-2-05-7-00-0-00-0-04-4-13-5-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mystics 1h20-13-31-1-09-4-22-0-08-8-12-0-01-0-16-4-13-2-2
Mystics 19-16-11-1-08-7-01-1-09-7-11-1-02-0-04-6-13-4-0
Dream 1h15-20-12-3-04-8-14-2-05-7-00-0-00-0-03-6-03-5-0
Dream 13-23-02-3-03-10-03-3-05-7-00-0-00-0-03-6-02-6-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mystics 1h11-23-22-0-04-9-20-2-05-12-00-2-01-0-13-8-02-4-1
Mystics 14-22-01-1-07-8-00-2-06-11-00-2-02-0-03-8-02-5-0
Dream 1h13-21-24-0-15-7-13-3-01-11-00-0-00-0-04-4-12-6-0
Dream 15-21-03-2-04-9-04-2-04-8-00-0-00-0-04-5-02-6-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Dream4-1-0 (80%)6-3-0 (66.7%)3-4-0 (42.9%)1-4-1 (20%)5-4-0 (55.6%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Mystics6-2-1 (75%)4-3-0 (57.1%)9-6-0 (60%)4-0-0 (100%)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)