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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Wings (+10.5) a 35.4-54.7% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 177.5 around 54.3-56.7% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Wings have a 44.7% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 58.9% chance of going over the total.


Liberty Situational Notes
Baller Systems
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Wings Situational Notes
Double digit, in season revenge

Baller Systems
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Liberty Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/15NYLNYL -5.5
MIN +5.5
160MIN---
9/12DALNYL -10.5
DAL +10.5
177.5NYL---
9/10DAL [ 91 ]NYL -10.5
DAL +10.5
176NYL [ 105 ]+14+3.5+20
9/8NYL [ 75 ]NYL -9.5
LVA +9.5
168LVA [ 71 ]+4-5.5-22
9/5NYL [ 77 ]NYL -8
SEA +8
165SEA [ 70 ]+7-1-18
8/30SEA [ 85 ]NYL -3.5
SEA +3.5
162.5NYL [ 98 ]+13+9.5+20.5
8/28LAS [ 94 ]NYL -13.5
LAS +13.5
166NYL [ 88 ]-6-19.5+16
8/26PHO [ 70 ]NYL -6
PHO +6
166NYL [ 84 ]+14+8-12
8/24NYL [ 64 ]NYL -8
CON +8
158CON [ 72 ]-8-16-22
8/22NYL [ 79 ]NYL -11.5
DAL +11.5
174DAL [ 71 ]+8-3.5-24

Wings Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/13DALDAL +11
SEA -11
174SEA---
9/12DALDAL +10.5
NYL -10.5
177.5NYL---
9/10DAL [ 91 ]DAL +10.5
NYL -10.5
176NYL [ 105 ]-14-3.5+20
9/8CHI [ 92 ]DAL -4
CHI +4
172DAL [ 77 ]-15-19-3
9/6ATL [ 107 ]DAL +2.5
ATL -2.5
170.5DAL [ 96 ]-11-8.5+32.5
9/3DAL [ 86 ]DAL -5.5
WAS +5.5
174.5WAS [ 90 ]-4-9.5+1.5
9/1DAL [ 93 ]DAL +3
IND -3
183.5IND [ 100 ]-7-4+9.5
8/30DAL [ 94 ]DAL +8
MIN -8
169.5MIN [ 76 ]+18+26+0.5
8/27DAL [ 93 ]DAL +9.5
LVA -9.5
181LVA [ 90 ]+3+12.5+2
8/25DAL [ 113 ]DAL -7
LAS +7
171.5LAS [ 110 ]+3-4+51.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/12DALDAL +10.5
NYL -10.5
177.5NYL--------
9/10DAL [ 91 ]DAL +10.5
NYL -10.5
176NYL [ 105 ]-14-3.5+2098.6110.8127.8-17196
8/22NYL [ 79 ]DAL +11.5
NYL -11.5
174DAL [ 71 ]-8+3.5-2493.691101.3-10.3150
8/20NYL [ 94 ]DAL +11
NYL -11
174DAL [ 74 ]-20-9-698.590.1114.5-24.4168
9/5DAL [ 93 ]DAL +6.5
NYL -6.5
172.5NYL [ 94 ]-1+5.5+14.595.8116.5117.7-1.3187
7/19NYL [ 88 ]DAL +7.5
NYL -7.5
166.5DAL [ 98 ]+10+17.5+19.593.9125.3112.512.8186
6/11NYL [ 102 ]DAL +8.5
NYL -8.5
170DAL [ 93 ]-9-0.5+2597.2114.9126-11.1195


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h23-10-412-4-21-0-08-6-22-0-02-0-11-1-18-3-06-2-3
Liberty 30-715-31-012-42-03-03-09-28-3
Wings 1h10-26-02-4-02-10-01-2-05-10-01-1-02-0-02-6-02-8-0
Wings 9-273-34-80-32-131-11-15-32-8

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h15-22-06-12-01-0-06-10-02-0-01-2-01-2-05-6-04-7-0
Liberty 18-19-04-14-01-0-011-5-02-0-02-1-02-1-04-7-07-4-0
Wings 1h16-19-11-5-04-7-11-2-010-5-01-1-02-0-04-4-02-8-0
Wings 10-25-10-5-14-8-00-3-06-9-01-1-01-1-05-3-02-8-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h15-22-07-11-01-0-07-9-00-2-01-2-02-1-04-7-05-6-0
Liberty 18-19-09-9-01-0-08-8-00-2-02-1-03-0-03-8-06-5-0
Wings 1h20-13-34-1-17-5-01-1-18-6-12-0-02-0-05-3-06-2-2
Wings 25-11-04-2-011-1-01-2-09-6-02-0-02-0-06-2-07-3-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h17-20-07-11-01-0-08-8-01-1-01-2-02-1-04-7-05-6-0
Liberty 18-19-08-10-01-0-08-8-01-1-02-1-03-0-04-7-06-5-0
Wings 1h16-19-10-6-06-5-11-2-09-6-01-1-02-0-04-4-03-7-0
Wings 21-15-03-3-011-1-00-3-07-8-01-1-02-0-06-2-05-5-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Liberty 1h18-18-110-8-01-0-07-8-10-2-01-1-12-1-05-6-05-5-1
Liberty 14-23-07-11-00-1-07-9-00-2-01-2-01-2-01-10-04-7-0
Wings 1h19-17-05-1-07-5-02-1-05-10-01-1-01-1-04-4-07-3-0
Wings 29-6-16-0-010-2-03-0-010-4-12-0-01-0-16-2-08-1-1


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Wings2-5-0 (28.6%)4-2-0 (66.7%)3-8-0 (27.3%)1-2-0 (33.3%)0-7-0 (0%)0-1-1 (0%)0-0-0 (-)
Liberty0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)2-0-0 (100%)2-0-0 (100%)6-3-0 (66.7%)4-3-0 (57.1%)4-13-0 (23.5%)