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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Fever (+4.5) a 45.4-61.6% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 180 around 51.2-53.8% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Fever have a 53.6% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 52.1% chance of going over the total.


Aces Situational Notes
Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Baller Systems
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Fever Situational Notes
Double digit, in season revenge
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
Coming off an overtime game

Baller Systems
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Aces Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/13INDLVA -4
IND +4
177.5LVA---
9/11INDLVA -4.5
IND +4.5
180LVA---
9/8NYL [ 75 ]LVA +9.5
NYL -9.5
168LVA [ 71 ]-4+5.5-22
9/6CON [ 67 ]LVA -1.5
CON +1.5
164.5LVA [ 72 ]+5+3.5-25.5
9/3LVA [ 90 ]LVA -13.5
CHI +13.5
162.5CHI [ 71 ]+19+5.5-1.5
9/1PHO [ 79 ]LVA -4.5
PHO +4.5
169.5LVA [ 97 ]+18+13.5+6.5
8/30LVA [ 83 ]LVA -10.5
ATL +10.5
166ATL [ 72 ]+11+0.5-11
8/27DAL [ 93 ]LVA -9.5
DAL +9.5
181LVA [ 90 ]-3-12.5+2
8/25CHI [ 75 ]LVA -9.5
CHI +9.5
169LVA [ 77 ]+2-7.5-17
8/23MIN [ 87 ]LVA -3
MIN +3
166.5LVA [ 74 ]-13-16-5.5

Fever Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/13INDIND +4
LVA -4
177.5LVA---
9/11INDIND +4.5
LVA -4.5
180LVA---
9/8IND [ 104 ]IND -5.5
ATL +5.5
170ATL [ 100 ]+4-1.5+34
9/6IND [ 88 ]IND +3
MIN -3
170MIN [ 99 ]-11-8+17
9/4IND [ 93 ]IND -11
LAS +11
174.5LAS [ 86 ]+7-4+4.5
9/1DAL [ 93 ]IND -3
DAL +3
183.5IND [ 100 ]+7+4+9.5
8/30CHI [ 81 ]IND -7
CHI +7
163.5IND [ 100 ]+19+12+17.5
8/28IND [ 84 ]IND +4
CON -4
164.5CON [ 80 ]+4+8-0.5
8/26ATL [ 79 ]IND -1.5
ATL +1.5
167IND [ 84 ]+5+3.5-4
8/24MIN [ 90 ]IND +4.5
MIN -4.5
168IND [ 80 ]-10-5.5+2

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/13INDIND +4
LVA -4
177.5LVA--------
9/11INDIND +4.5
LVA -4.5
180LVA--------
7/2LVA [ 88 ]IND +13.5
LVA -13.5
179IND [ 69 ]-19-5.5-2297.185.3108.8-23.5157
5/25LVA [ 99 ]IND +16
LVA -16
174.5IND [ 80 ]-19-3+4.596.999.1122.6-23.5179
6/26LVA [ 88 ]IND +15
LVA -15
171IND [ 80 ]-8+7-393103.3113.6-10.3168
6/24LVA [ 101 ]IND +16
LVA -16
170IND [ 88 ]-13+3+1998.9106.8122.6-15.8189
6/4IND [ 80 ]IND +16
LVA -16
172.5LVA [ 84 ]-4+12-8.596.299.8104.8-5164


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Aces 1h22-13-012-6-00-0-010-6-00-1-01-1-01-1-08-1-03-7-0
Aces 22-1311-70-011-50-11-11-18-14-6
Fever 1h16-19-14-4-07-2-04-3-01-10-11-1-00-2-04-4-06-5-0
Fever 19-176-25-46-12-102-00-25-34-7

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Aces 1h11-22-25-12-10-0-06-9-10-1-01-1-00-2-05-3-12-8-0
Aces 15-19-18-10-00-0-06-9-11-0-01-1-00-2-07-2-03-6-1
Fever 1h17-17-23-4-17-2-03-3-14-8-01-1-01-1-04-3-16-4-1
Fever 20-16-04-4-06-3-05-2-05-7-02-0-00-2-04-4-06-5-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Aces 1h8-27-04-14-00-0-04-12-00-1-00-2-00-2-01-8-02-8-0
Aces 16-19-09-9-00-0-07-9-00-1-01-1-01-1-05-4-05-5-0
Fever 1h23-12-17-1-05-4-04-2-17-5-00-2-01-1-05-2-18-3-0
Fever 24-12-08-0-04-5-05-2-07-5-00-2-02-0-07-1-07-4-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Aces 1h9-26-06-12-00-0-03-13-00-1-00-2-00-2-02-7-04-6-0
Aces 10-25-05-13-00-0-05-11-00-1-01-1-00-2-04-5-02-8-0
Fever 1h13-21-24-4-04-4-13-3-12-10-00-2-00-2-04-3-16-5-0
Fever 24-12-06-2-07-2-05-2-06-6-00-2-01-1-05-3-07-4-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Aces 1h13-22-07-11-00-0-06-10-00-1-00-2-01-1-01-8-06-4-0
Aces 16-18-19-8-10-0-07-9-00-1-00-2-01-1-04-4-15-5-0
Fever 1h21-12-35-3-04-5-04-1-28-3-11-1-01-1-05-2-16-5-0
Fever 22-13-16-1-15-4-04-3-07-5-00-2-02-0-06-2-06-4-1


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Fever2-4-0 (33.3%)1-2-0 (33.3%)6-4-0 (60%)5-0-0 (100%)5-4-0 (55.6%)1-1-0 (50%)0-1-0 (0%)
Aces0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)5-4-0 (55.6%)1-6-0 (14.3%)7-9-1 (43.8%)