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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Dream (+5.5) a 39.7-51.6% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 155 around 53.2-61.2% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Dream have a 41.9% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 56.5% chance of going over the total.


Lynx Situational Notes
Baller Systems
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Dream Situational Notes
In season revenge
Coming off an overtime game

Baller Systems
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Lynx Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/13MINMIN -13
CHI +13
158.5CHI---
9/10ATLMIN -5.5
ATL +5.5
155MIN---
9/8WAS [ 71 ]MIN -7.5
WAS +7.5
161MIN [ 78 ]+7-0.5-12
9/6IND [ 88 ]MIN -3
IND +3
170MIN [ 99 ]+11+8+17
9/1MIN [ 79 ]MIN -12
CHI +12
158CHI [ 74 ]+5-7-5
8/30DAL [ 94 ]MIN -8
DAL +8
169.5MIN [ 76 ]-18-26+0.5
8/28PHO [ 76 ]MIN -4.5
PHO +4.5
163.5MIN [ 89 ]+13+8.5+1.5
8/24MIN [ 90 ]MIN -4.5
IND +4.5
168IND [ 80 ]+10+5.5+2
8/23MIN [ 87 ]MIN +3
LVA -3
166.5LVA [ 74 ]+13+16-5.5
8/21LVA [ 87 ]MIN +7
LVA -7
167.5MIN [ 98 ]+11+18+17.5

Dream Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/13ATLATL -4.5
WAS +4.5
155WAS---
9/10ATLATL +5.5
MIN -5.5
155MIN---
9/8IND [ 104 ]ATL +5.5
IND -5.5
170ATL [ 100 ]-4+1.5+34
9/6ATL [ 107 ]ATL -2.5
DAL +2.5
170.5DAL [ 96 ]+11+8.5+32.5
9/3PHO [ 74 ]ATL +2
PHO -2
160.5ATL [ 66 ]-8-6-20.5
9/1LAS [ 62 ]ATL -4.5
LAS +4.5
163.5ATL [ 80 ]+18+13.5-21.5
8/30LVA [ 83 ]ATL +10.5
LVA -10.5
166ATL [ 72 ]-11-0.5-11
8/28SEA [ 85 ]ATL +9
SEA -9
155.5ATL [ 81 ]-4+5+10.5
8/26ATL [ 79 ]ATL +1.5
IND -1.5
167IND [ 84 ]-5-3.5-4
8/23ATL [ 80 ]ATL +2
PHO -2
161.5PHO [ 82 ]-20+0.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/10ATLATL +5.5
MIN -5.5
155MIN--------
7/17MIN [ 86 ]ATL +7.5
MIN -7.5
150.5ATL [ 79 ]-7+0.5+14.592.7102.2111.3-9.1165
6/19MIN [ 68 ]ATL +9.5
MIN -9.5
162.5ATL [ 55 ]-13-3.5-39.590.373.190.4-17.3123
5/26ATL [ 79 ]ATL -4.5
MIN +4.5
167.5MIN [ 92 ]-13-17.5+3.588.6107124.6-17.6171
9/1MIN [ 91 ]ATL +2
MIN -2
163.5ATL [ 85 ]-6-4+12.596.196.2102.9-6.8159.4
7/18ATL [ 82 ]ATL -6
MIN +6
170MIN [ 73 ]+9+3-1595.510391.711.3155
5/23MIN [ 77 ]ATL +2
MIN -2
161.5ATL [ 83 ]+6+8-1.592.3107.9100.17.8160


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Lynx 1h21-12-38-4-23-1-06-4-04-3-12-0-02-0-04-4-07-4-0
Lynx 27-912-23-17-35-32-02-06-26-5
Dream 1h9-25-11-4-02-10-03-2-13-9-00-0-00-0-01-8-03-5-0
Dream 12-233-24-84-21-110-00-02-73-5

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Lynx 1h18-17-14-9-13-1-04-6-07-1-02-0-01-1-05-3-03-7-1
Lynx 22-14-07-7-03-1-06-4-06-2-02-0-02-0-06-2-05-6-0
Dream 1h13-19-31-4-02-10-03-3-07-2-30-0-00-0-03-5-13-4-1
Dream 19-15-12-3-05-6-14-2-08-4-00-0-00-0-03-6-05-3-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Lynx 1h13-22-13-10-10-4-04-6-06-2-00-2-02-0-05-2-13-8-0
Lynx 16-18-26-8-01-3-05-5-04-2-20-2-02-0-05-1-25-6-0
Dream 1h14-20-14-1-05-7-03-3-02-9-10-0-00-0-04-4-11-7-0
Dream 16-18-12-2-15-7-04-2-05-7-00-0-00-0-04-4-13-5-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Lynx 1h17-19-03-11-02-2-06-4-06-2-01-1-02-0-05-3-04-7-0
Lynx 21-15-06-8-03-1-06-4-06-2-02-0-02-0-07-1-03-8-0
Dream 1h15-20-02-3-04-8-04-2-05-7-00-0-00-0-03-6-03-5-0
Dream 13-22-02-3-03-9-03-3-05-7-00-0-00-0-03-6-02-6-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Lynx 1h11-23-24-10-00-4-02-7-15-2-10-2-02-0-05-3-03-7-1
Lynx 14-22-06-8-01-3-05-5-02-6-00-2-00-2-04-4-04-7-0
Dream 1h13-21-14-0-15-7-03-3-01-11-00-0-00-0-04-4-12-6-0
Dream 15-20-03-2-04-8-04-2-04-8-00-0-00-0-04-5-02-6-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Dream4-1-0 (80%)6-3-0 (66.7%)3-3-0 (50%)1-4-1 (20%)5-4-0 (55.6%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Lynx0-0-0 (-)3-0-0 (100%)5-3-0 (62.5%)2-0-0 (100%)8-3-0 (72.7%)4-5-0 (44.4%)0-3-0 (0%)