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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Mystics (+7.5) a 44.7-61.6% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 161 around 52.7-61.5% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Mystics have a 51% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 58% chance of going over the total.


Lynx Situational Notes
Rest disadvantage

Baller Systems
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Mystics Situational Notes
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
Rest advantage
Double digit, in season revenge
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Systems
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Lynx Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/10ATLMIN -5.5
ATL +5.5
155MIN---
9/8WASMIN -7.5
WAS +7.5
161MIN---
9/6IND [ 88 ]MIN -3
IND +3
170MIN [ 99 ]+11+8+17
9/1MIN [ 79 ]MIN -12
CHI +12
158CHI [ 74 ]+5-7-5
8/30DAL [ 94 ]MIN -8
DAL +8
169.5MIN [ 76 ]-18-26+0.5
8/28PHO [ 76 ]MIN -4.5
PHO +4.5
163.5MIN [ 89 ]+13+8.5+1.5
8/24MIN [ 90 ]MIN -4.5
IND +4.5
168IND [ 80 ]+10+5.5+2
8/23MIN [ 87 ]MIN +3
LVA -3
166.5LVA [ 74 ]+13+16-5.5
8/21LVA [ 87 ]MIN +7
LVA -7
167.5MIN [ 98 ]+11+18+17.5
8/17WAS [ 83 ]MIN -3.5
WAS +3.5
157.5MIN [ 99 ]+16+12.5+24.5

Mystics Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/11CHIWAS -1.5
CHI +1.5
162.5WAS---
9/8WASWAS +7.5
MIN -7.5
161MIN---
9/5PHO [ 77 ]WAS +5.5
PHO -5.5
165.5WAS [ 90 ]+13+18.5+1.5
9/3DAL [ 86 ]WAS +5.5
DAL -5.5
174.5WAS [ 90 ]+4+9.5+1.5
8/31WAS [ 85 ]WAS +8
CON -8
153.5CON [ 96 ]-11-3+27.5
8/28CHI [ 70 ]WAS -2
CHI +2
157WAS [ 74 ]+4+2-13
8/26SEA [ 72 ]WAS +10.5
SEA -10.5
161WAS [ 74 ]+2+12.5-15
8/23WAS [ 80 ]WAS -4.5
LAS +4.5
164LAS [ 74 ]+6+1.5-10
8/20WAS [ 77 ]WAS +6.5
SEA -6.5
161SEA [ 83 ]-6+0.5-1
8/17WAS [ 83 ]WAS +3.5
MIN -3.5
157.5MIN [ 99 ]-16-12.5+24.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/8WASWAS +7.5
MIN -7.5
161MIN--------
8/17WAS [ 83 ]WAS +3.5
MIN -3.5
157.5MIN [ 99 ]-16-12.5+24.596103.8123.8-20182
8/15MIN [ 79 ]WAS +8
MIN -8
156.5WAS [ 68 ]-11-3-9.5101.780.393.2-13147
7/6MIN [ 74 ]WAS +9
MIN -9
158WAS [ 67 ]-7+2-1789.589.899.2-9.4141
8/29WAS [ 83 ]WAS -7
MIN +7
162MIN [ 72 ]+11+4-788.4112.797.714.9155
7/26MIN [ 97 ]WAS +3.5
MIN -3.5
159WAS [ 92 ]-5-1.5+3098.4112.1118.2-6.1189
6/3WAS [ 78 ]WAS -8
MIN +8
161MIN [ 80 ]-2-10-392.2101.5104.1-2.6158


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Lynx 1h21-11-38-4-23-1-06-3-04-3-12-0-02-0-04-4-07-3-0
Lynx 26-912-23-16-35-32-02-06-25-5
Mystics 1h16-15-30-2-08-6-01-0-07-7-32-0-00-2-06-3-13-4-0
Mystics 11-232-02-121-06-111-11-13-74-3

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Lynx 1h18-16-14-9-13-1-04-5-07-1-02-0-01-1-05-3-03-6-1
Lynx 22-13-07-7-03-1-06-3-06-2-02-0-02-0-06-2-05-5-0
Mystics 1h23-9-20-2-09-4-11-0-013-3-12-0-00-1-17-2-14-2-1
Mystics 22-11-12-0-07-6-11-0-012-5-01-1-02-0-05-4-16-1-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Lynx 1h13-21-13-10-10-4-04-5-06-2-00-2-02-0-05-2-13-7-0
Lynx 16-17-26-8-01-3-05-4-04-2-20-2-02-0-05-1-25-5-0
Mystics 1h16-17-11-1-07-6-11-0-07-10-01-1-01-0-15-5-03-3-1
Mystics 19-15-01-1-08-6-00-1-010-7-01-1-02-0-05-5-02-5-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Lynx 1h17-18-03-11-02-2-06-3-06-2-01-1-02-0-05-3-04-6-0
Lynx 21-14-06-8-03-1-06-3-06-2-02-0-02-0-07-1-03-7-0
Mystics 1h19-13-21-1-09-4-11-0-08-8-12-0-01-0-16-4-03-2-2
Mystics 18-15-11-1-08-6-00-1-09-7-11-1-02-0-04-5-13-4-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Lynx 1h11-23-14-10-00-4-02-7-05-2-10-2-02-0-05-3-03-7-0
Lynx 14-21-06-8-01-3-05-4-02-6-00-2-00-2-04-4-04-6-0
Mystics 1h11-21-22-0-04-8-20-1-05-12-00-2-01-0-13-7-02-4-1
Mystics 14-20-01-1-07-7-00-1-06-11-00-2-02-0-03-7-02-5-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Mystics6-2-1 (75%)3-3-0 (50%)9-6-0 (60%)3-0-0 (100%)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Lynx0-0-0 (-)3-0-0 (100%)5-3-0 (62.5%)2-0-0 (100%)8-3-0 (72.7%)4-4-0 (50%)0-3-0 (0%)