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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Storm (-6) a 56.3-53.1% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 163.5 around 53.4-51.5% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Storm have a 76.5% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 51.8% chance of going over the total.


Mercury Situational Notes
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller Systems
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Storm Situational Notes
In season revenge
1st game home off long road trip (at least three games)

Mercury Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/13PHOPHO +9.5
CON -9.5
155.5CON---
9/7SEAPHO +6
SEA -6
163.5PHO---
9/5PHO [ 77 ]PHO -5.5
WAS +5.5
165.5WAS [ 90 ]-13-18.5+1.5
9/3PHO [ 74 ]PHO -2
ATL +2
160.5ATL [ 66 ]+8+6-20.5
9/1PHO [ 79 ]PHO +4.5
LVA -4.5
169.5LVA [ 97 ]-18-13.5+6.5
8/28PHO [ 76 ]PHO +4.5
MIN -4.5
163.5MIN [ 89 ]-13-8.5+1.5
8/26PHO [ 70 ]PHO +6
NYL -6
166NYL [ 84 ]-14-8-12
8/23ATL [ 80 ]PHO -2
ATL +2
161.5PHO [ 82 ]+20+0.5
8/21ATL [ 72 ]PHO -3
ATL +3
166PHO [ 63 ]-9-12-31
8/18PHO [ 86 ]PHO -7.5
CHI +7.5
166CHI [ 68 ]+18+10.5-12

Storm Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/11LASSEA -12.5
LAS +12.5
162.5SEA---
9/7SEASEA -6
PHO +6
163.5PHO---
9/5NYL [ 77 ]SEA +8
NYL -8
165SEA [ 70 ]-7+1-18
9/3CON [ 64 ]SEA +3.5
CON -3.5
158.5SEA [ 71 ]+7+10.5-23.5
9/1CON [ 93 ]SEA 0
CON 0
156SEA [ 86 ]-7-7+23
8/30SEA [ 85 ]SEA +3.5
NYL -3.5
162.5NYL [ 98 ]-13-9.5+20.5
8/28SEA [ 85 ]SEA -9
ATL +9
155.5ATL [ 81 ]+4-5+10.5
8/26SEA [ 72 ]SEA -10.5
WAS +10.5
161WAS [ 74 ]-2-12.5-15
8/20WAS [ 77 ]SEA -6.5
WAS +6.5
161SEA [ 83 ]+6-0.5-1
8/18IND [ 92 ]SEA -4
IND +4
171SEA [ 75 ]-17-21-4

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/19PHOSEA -1.5
PHO +1.5
163.5SEA--------
9/7SEASEA -6
PHO +6
163.5PHO--------
6/16PHO [ 87 ]SEA -3
PHO +3
166SEA [ 78 ]-9-12-197.496.1107.2-11.1165
6/4SEA [ 80 ]SEA -5
PHO +5
164PHO [ 62 ]+18+13-2299.696.474.721.7142
8/13SEA [ 81 ]SEA -2.5
PHO +2.5
160.5PHO [ 71 ]+10+7.5-8.588.5109.896.213.6152
8/5PHO [ 91 ]SEA +3
PHO -3
159SEA [ 97 ]+6+9+2996.5120.6113.17.5188
6/24SEA [ 97 ]SEA -2
PHO +2
162.5PHO [ 74 ]+23+21+8.593.6124.494.929.5171
6/13PHO [ 69 ]SEA +6.5
PHO -6.5
161.5SEA [ 83 ]+14+20.5-9.593.2106.988.818152


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h15-19-16-3-04-4-15-2-00-10-02-1-00-3-04-3-13-7-0
Mercury 17-186-34-56-11-91-20-34-42-8
Storm 1h25-9-013-2-02-0-07-3-03-3-01-0-00-1-07-1-04-3-0
Storm 20-1412-30-26-42-41-00-14-44-3

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h18-17-04-5-06-3-05-2-03-7-02-1-01-2-06-2-04-6-0
Mercury 18-16-15-4-05-4-05-1-13-7-01-2-01-2-05-3-03-7-0
Storm 1h19-14-18-7-02-0-05-4-14-2-01-0-00-1-05-3-04-3-0
Storm 17-17-09-6-00-2-04-6-04-2-01-0-01-0-04-4-04-3-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h15-20-04-5-02-7-03-4-06-4-00-3-02-1-02-6-05-5-0
Mercury 19-16-05-4-05-4-04-3-05-5-00-3-01-2-03-5-05-5-0
Storm 1h11-23-08-7-01-1-02-8-00-6-00-1-00-1-02-6-02-5-0
Storm 14-19-16-8-11-1-05-5-01-5-00-1-00-1-04-4-03-3-1

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h14-20-13-6-04-5-03-3-14-6-02-1-01-2-03-5-04-6-0
Mercury 18-17-04-5-05-4-05-2-04-6-01-2-01-2-03-5-04-6-0
Storm 1h12-20-27-6-21-1-03-7-01-5-00-1-00-1-02-6-03-4-0
Storm 14-19-17-8-01-1-05-5-00-5-11-0-00-1-02-6-03-3-1

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h17-18-04-5-05-4-03-4-05-5-00-3-02-1-02-6-07-3-0
Mercury 18-17-05-4-05-4-04-3-04-6-01-2-02-1-02-6-07-3-0
Storm 1h14-18-28-6-11-1-03-6-11-5-00-1-00-1-04-4-02-5-0
Storm 16-18-05-10-01-1-07-3-02-4-00-1-00-1-03-5-03-4-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Storm1-0-0 (100%)2-0-0 (100%)1-3-0 (25%)2-3-0 (40%)5-4-0 (55.6%)3-3-0 (50%)3-4-0 (42.9%)
Mercury3-0-0 (100%)0-2-0 (0%)4-8-0 (33.3%)3-1-1 (75%)5-4-0 (55.6%)2-1-0 (66.7%)1-0-0 (100%)