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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Dream (-2.5) a 52.3-52% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 170.5 around 49.2-53.4% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Dream have a 59.3% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 44.9% chance of going over the total.


Wings Situational Notes
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller Systems
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Dream Situational Notes
In season revenge
1st game home off long road trip (at least three games)

Wings Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/8CHIDAL -4
CHI +4
172DAL---
9/6ATLDAL +2.5
ATL -2.5
170.5DAL---
9/3DAL [ 86 ]DAL -5.5
WAS +5.5
174.5WAS [ 90 ]-4-9.5+1.5
9/1DAL [ 93 ]DAL +3
IND -3
183.5IND [ 100 ]-7-4+9.5
8/30DAL [ 94 ]DAL +8
MIN -8
169.5MIN [ 76 ]+18+26+0.5
8/27DAL [ 93 ]DAL +9.5
LVA -9.5
181LVA [ 90 ]+3+12.5+2
8/25DAL [ 113 ]DAL -7
LAS +7
171.5LAS [ 110 ]+3-4+51.5
8/22NYL [ 79 ]DAL +11.5
NYL -11.5
174DAL [ 71 ]-8+3.5-24
8/20NYL [ 94 ]DAL +11
NYL -11
174DAL [ 74 ]-20-9-6
8/16DAL [ 91 ]DAL +6
CON -6
160.5CON [ 109 ]-18-12+39.5

Dream Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/8INDATL +5.5
IND -5.5
170ATL---
9/6ATLATL -2.5
DAL +2.5
170.5DAL---
9/3PHO [ 74 ]ATL +2
PHO -2
160.5ATL [ 66 ]-8-6-20.5
9/1LAS [ 62 ]ATL -4.5
LAS +4.5
163.5ATL [ 80 ]+18+13.5-21.5
8/30LVA [ 83 ]ATL +10.5
LVA -10.5
166ATL [ 72 ]-11-0.5-11
8/28SEA [ 85 ]ATL +9
SEA -9
155.5ATL [ 81 ]-4+5+10.5
8/26ATL [ 79 ]ATL +1.5
IND -1.5
167IND [ 84 ]-5-3.5-4
8/23ATL [ 80 ]ATL +2
PHO -2
161.5PHO [ 82 ]-20+0.5
8/21ATL [ 72 ]ATL +3
PHO -3
166PHO [ 63 ]+9+12-31
8/18ATL [ 82 ]ATL +8
CON -8
154.5CON [ 70 ]+12+20-2.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/6ATLATL -2.5
DAL +2.5
170.5DAL--------
7/5DAL [ 85 ]ATL +4.5
DAL -4.5
162.5ATL [ 82 ]-3+1.5+4.5105.393.496.8-3.4167
5/21ATL [ 83 ]ATL -5.5
DAL +5.5
169DAL [ 78 ]+5-0.5-893.1107100.56.4161
9/19DAL [ 101 ]ATL +6.5
DAL -6.5
170.5ATL [ 74 ]-27-20.5+4.5100.888.1120.3-32.2175
9/15DAL [ 94 ]ATL +5.5
DAL -5.5
169.5ATL [ 82 ]-12-6.5+6.5104.594.2108-13.8176
9/10ATL [ 77 ]ATL -1
DAL +1
172.5DAL [ 94 ]-17-18-1.5100.891.6111.9-20.2171
6/20DAL [ 85 ]ATL +3
DAL -3
173.5ATL [ 73 ]-12-9-15.59592.2107.4-15.2158
5/20DAL [ 85 ]ATL +1.5
DAL -1.5
160.5ATL [ 78 ]-7-5.5+2.5101.592.2100.5-8.3163


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Wings 1h9-24-02-4-02-9-01-1-04-10-01-1-02-0-02-6-02-8-0
Wings 9-243-34-70-22-121-11-15-32-8
Dream 1h8-24-11-3-02-10-03-2-12-9-00-0-00-0-01-8-03-5-0
Dream 11-222-24-84-21-100-00-02-73-5

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Wings 1h15-17-11-5-04-6-11-1-09-5-01-1-02-0-04-4-02-8-0
Wings 10-22-10-5-14-7-00-2-06-8-01-1-01-1-05-3-02-8-0
Dream 1h12-18-31-3-02-10-03-3-06-2-30-0-00-0-03-5-13-4-1
Dream 17-15-11-3-05-6-14-2-07-4-00-0-00-0-03-6-05-3-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Wings 1h18-12-34-1-16-5-01-0-17-6-12-0-02-0-05-3-06-2-2
Wings 23-10-04-2-010-1-01-1-08-6-02-0-02-0-06-2-07-3-0
Dream 1h12-20-13-1-05-7-03-3-01-9-10-0-00-0-04-4-11-7-0
Dream 14-18-11-2-15-7-04-2-04-7-00-0-00-0-04-4-13-5-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Wings 1h14-18-10-6-05-5-11-1-08-6-01-1-02-0-04-4-03-7-0
Wings 19-14-03-3-010-1-00-2-06-8-01-1-02-0-06-2-05-5-0
Dream 1h14-19-02-2-04-8-04-2-04-7-00-0-00-0-03-6-03-5-0
Dream 11-22-01-3-03-9-03-3-04-7-00-0-00-0-03-6-02-6-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Wings 1h17-16-05-1-06-5-01-1-05-9-01-1-01-1-04-4-07-3-0
Wings 26-6-16-0-09-2-02-0-09-4-12-0-01-0-16-2-08-1-1
Dream 1h12-20-13-0-15-7-03-3-01-10-00-0-00-0-04-4-12-6-0
Dream 13-20-02-2-04-8-04-2-03-8-00-0-00-0-04-5-02-6-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Dream4-1-0 (80%)6-3-0 (66.7%)2-3-0 (40%)1-4-1 (20%)4-4-0 (50%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Wings2-4-0 (33.3%)4-2-0 (66.7%)3-7-0 (30%)1-2-0 (33.3%)0-6-0 (0%)0-1-1 (0%)0-0-0 (-)