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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Liberty (-8) a 49.2-64.5% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 165 around 50.2-48.4% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Liberty have a 60.6% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 47.9% chance of going over the total.


Storm Situational Notes
Double digit, in season revenge
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)
Rest disadvantage

Baller Systems
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Liberty Situational Notes
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
Rest advantage
1st game home off long road trip (at least three games)

Baller Systems
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Storm Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/7SEASEA -6
PHO +6
163.5PHO---
9/5NYLSEA +8
NYL -8
165SEA---
9/3CON [ 64 ]SEA +3.5
CON -3.5
158.5SEA [ 71 ]+7+10.5-23.5
9/1CON [ 93 ]SEA 0
CON 0
156SEA [ 86 ]-7-7+23
8/30SEA [ 85 ]SEA +3.5
NYL -3.5
162.5NYL [ 98 ]-13-9.5+20.5
8/28SEA [ 85 ]SEA -9
ATL +9
155.5ATL [ 81 ]+4-5+10.5
8/26SEA [ 72 ]SEA -10.5
WAS +10.5
161WAS [ 74 ]-2-12.5-15
8/20WAS [ 77 ]SEA -6.5
WAS +6.5
161SEA [ 83 ]+6-0.5-1
8/18IND [ 92 ]SEA -4
IND +4
171SEA [ 75 ]-17-21-4
8/16ATL [ 83 ]SEA -7
ATL +7
157SEA [ 81 ]-2-9+7

Liberty Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/8NYLNYL -9.5
LVA +9.5
168LVA---
9/5NYLNYL -8
SEA +8
165SEA---
8/30SEA [ 85 ]NYL -3.5
SEA +3.5
162.5NYL [ 98 ]+13+9.5+20.5
8/28LAS [ 94 ]NYL -13.5
LAS +13.5
166NYL [ 88 ]-6-19.5+16
8/26PHO [ 70 ]NYL -6
PHO +6
166NYL [ 84 ]+14+8-12
8/24NYL [ 64 ]NYL -8
CON +8
158CON [ 72 ]-8-16-22
8/22NYL [ 79 ]NYL -11.5
DAL +11.5
174DAL [ 71 ]+8-3.5-24
8/20NYL [ 94 ]NYL -11
DAL +11
174DAL [ 74 ]+20+9-6
8/17LVA [ 67 ]NYL +3.5
LVA -3.5
175NYL [ 79 ]+12+15.5-29
8/15LAS [ 68 ]NYL -11.5
LAS +11.5
164.5NYL [ 103 ]+35+23.5+6.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/5NYLNYL -8
SEA +8
165SEA--------
8/30SEA [ 85 ]NYL -3.5
SEA +3.5
162.5NYL [ 98 ]+13+9.5+20.586.6135.7117.718183
5/20NYL [ 74 ]NYL -13.5
SEA +13.5
166SEA [ 63 ]+11-2.5-299197.683.114.5137
7/25NYL [ 86 ]NYL -15
SEA +15
171SEA [ 82 ]+4-11-398.2105.1100.24.9168
7/8NYL [ 80 ]NYL -15.5
SEA +15.5
168.5SEA [ 76 ]+4-11.5-12.594.8101.296.25.1156
7/2SEA [ 66 ]NYL -10.5
SEA +10.5
170.5NYL [ 81 ]+15+4.5-23.594.9102.483.419147
5/30SEA [ 78 ]NYL -15
SEA +15
163NYL [ 86 ]+8-7+190114.7104.110.7164


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Storm 1h25-8-013-2-02-0-07-3-03-2-01-0-00-1-07-1-04-2-0
Storm 20-1312-30-26-42-31-00-14-44-2
Liberty 1h20-10-410-4-21-0-07-6-22-0-02-0-11-1-16-3-06-2-3
Liberty 27-713-31-011-42-03-03-07-28-3

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Storm 1h18-14-18-7-02-0-05-4-13-2-01-0-00-1-05-3-03-3-0
Storm 16-17-09-6-00-2-04-6-03-2-01-0-01-0-04-4-03-3-0
Liberty 1h13-21-05-11-01-0-05-10-02-0-01-2-01-2-04-5-04-7-0
Liberty 17-17-04-12-01-0-010-5-02-0-02-1-02-1-04-5-07-4-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Storm 1h11-22-08-7-01-1-02-8-00-5-00-1-00-1-02-6-02-4-0
Storm 14-18-16-8-11-1-05-5-01-4-00-1-00-1-04-4-03-2-1
Liberty 1h14-20-07-9-01-0-06-9-00-2-01-2-02-1-04-5-05-6-0
Liberty 17-17-09-7-01-0-07-8-00-2-02-1-03-0-03-6-06-5-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Storm 1h12-19-27-6-21-1-03-7-01-4-00-1-00-1-02-6-03-3-0
Storm 14-18-17-8-01-1-05-5-00-4-11-0-00-1-02-6-03-2-1
Liberty 1h16-18-07-9-01-0-07-8-01-1-01-2-02-1-04-5-05-6-0
Liberty 17-17-08-8-01-0-07-8-01-1-02-1-03-0-04-5-06-5-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Storm 1h14-17-28-6-11-1-03-6-11-4-00-1-00-1-04-4-02-4-0
Storm 16-17-05-10-01-1-07-3-02-3-00-1-00-1-03-5-03-3-0
Liberty 1h17-16-110-6-01-0-06-8-10-2-01-1-12-1-05-4-05-5-1
Liberty 13-21-07-9-00-1-06-9-00-2-01-2-01-2-01-8-04-7-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Liberty0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)2-0-0 (100%)2-0-0 (100%)6-3-0 (66.7%)4-1-0 (80%)3-13-0 (18.8%)
Storm1-0-0 (100%)1-0-0 (100%)1-3-0 (25%)2-3-0 (40%)5-4-0 (55.6%)3-3-0 (50%)3-4-0 (42.9%)