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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Fever (-11) a 35.4-64.1% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 174.5 around 50-52.9% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Fever have a 46.6% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 50.3% chance of going over the total.


Sparks Situational Notes
Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Fever Situational Notes
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
In season revenge

Sparks Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/6CHILAS +4.5
CHI -4.5
164.5LAS---
9/4INDLAS +11
IND -11
174.5LAS---
9/1LAS [ 62 ]LAS +4.5
ATL -4.5
163.5ATL [ 80 ]-18-13.5-21.5
8/28LAS [ 94 ]LAS +13.5
NYL -13.5
166NYL [ 88 ]+6+19.5+16
8/25DAL [ 113 ]LAS +7
DAL -7
171.5LAS [ 110 ]-3+4+51.5
8/23WAS [ 80 ]LAS +4.5
WAS -4.5
164LAS [ 74 ]-6-1.5-10
8/20CON [ 69 ]LAS +13.5
CON -13.5
158LAS [ 61 ]-8+5.5-28
8/18LVA [ 87 ]LAS +16.5
LVA -16.5
173.5LAS [ 71 ]-16+0.5-15.5
8/17LAS [ 86 ]LAS +3
CHI -3
160.5CHI [ 90 ]-4-1+15.5
8/15LAS [ 68 ]LAS +11.5
NYL -11.5
164.5NYL [ 103 ]-35-23.5+6.5

Fever Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/6INDIND +3
MIN -3
170MIN---
9/4INDIND -11
LAS +11
174.5LAS---
9/1DAL [ 93 ]IND -3
DAL +3
183.5IND [ 100 ]+7+4+9.5
8/30CHI [ 81 ]IND -7
CHI +7
163.5IND [ 100 ]+19+12+17.5
8/28IND [ 84 ]IND +4
CON -4
164.5CON [ 80 ]+4+8-0.5
8/26ATL [ 79 ]IND -1.5
ATL +1.5
167IND [ 84 ]+5+3.5-4
8/24MIN [ 90 ]IND +4.5
MIN -4.5
168IND [ 80 ]-10-5.5+2
8/18IND [ 92 ]IND +4
SEA -4
171SEA [ 75 ]+17+21-4
8/16IND [ 98 ]IND -3
PHO +3
174PHO [ 89 ]+9+6+13
7/17DAL [ 101 ]IND -4.5
DAL +4.5
178IND [ 93 ]-8-12.5+16

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/4INDIND -11
LAS +11
174.5LAS--------
5/28IND [ 82 ]IND -5.5
LAS +5.5
164.5LAS [ 88 ]-6-11.5+5.596.3102.2109.7-7.5170
5/24LAS [ 73 ]IND -1.5
LAS +1.5
165IND [ 78 ]+5+3.5-1497.196.490.26.2151
8/8IND [ 80 ]IND -1
LAS +1
157.5LAS [ 87 ]-7-8+9.599.896.2104.6-8.4167
7/27LAS [ 81 ]IND +2
LAS -2
160.5IND [ 68 ]-13-11-11.592.288.5105.4-16.9149
7/25LAS [ 79 ]IND +4.5
LAS -4.5
163.5IND [ 78 ]-1+3.5-6.592.3101.4102.7-1.3157



Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sparks 1h11-20-11-2-04-8-10-0-06-10-01-0-00-1-05-5-02-5-0
Sparks 7-251-24-90-02-140-10-14-61-6
Fever 1h15-17-14-2-06-2-04-3-01-10-11-1-00-2-04-4-05-5-0
Fever 17-164-25-36-12-102-00-25-34-6

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sparks 1h19-13-01-2-07-6-00-0-011-5-01-0-01-0-06-4-03-4-0
Sparks 15-17-00-3-05-8-00-0-010-6-00-1-01-0-04-6-04-3-0
Fever 1h16-15-23-2-16-2-03-3-14-8-01-1-01-1-04-3-15-4-1
Fever 20-13-04-2-06-2-05-2-05-7-02-0-00-2-04-4-06-4-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sparks 1h14-17-11-2-06-6-10-0-07-9-01-0-00-1-03-7-03-4-0
Sparks 15-16-11-2-07-6-00-0-07-8-11-0-00-1-04-6-03-3-1
Fever 1h20-12-15-1-04-4-04-2-17-5-00-2-01-1-05-2-17-3-0
Fever 21-12-06-0-03-5-05-2-07-5-00-2-02-0-07-1-06-4-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sparks 1h15-17-01-2-06-7-00-0-08-8-01-0-00-1-05-5-02-5-0
Sparks 15-16-10-2-17-6-00-0-08-8-01-0-00-1-04-5-13-4-0
Fever 1h12-19-24-2-03-4-13-3-12-10-00-2-00-2-04-3-15-5-0
Fever 21-12-04-2-06-2-05-2-06-6-00-2-01-1-05-3-06-4-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sparks 1h12-20-01-2-07-6-00-0-04-12-01-0-00-1-02-8-02-5-0
Sparks 17-15-02-1-07-6-00-0-08-8-01-0-00-1-04-6-03-4-0
Fever 1h18-12-33-3-03-5-04-1-28-3-11-1-01-1-05-2-15-5-0
Fever 19-13-14-1-14-4-04-3-07-5-00-2-02-0-06-2-05-4-1


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Fever2-4-0 (33.3%)1-2-0 (33.3%)6-3-0 (66.7%)5-0-0 (100%)5-3-0 (62.5%)1-1-0 (50%)0-0-0 (-)
Sparks11-3-0 (78.6%)1-1-0 (50%)3-9-0 (25%)0-3-0 (0%)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)