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9/1 | 9/4SEA@CON WAS@DAL CHI@LVA ATL@PHO

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Storm @ Sun [ -3.5 / 158.5 ]Copied and ready to share!Glossary

September 3, 2024
Sun | 27-12 (69.2%)
Storm | 24-15 (61.5%)

Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Sun (-3.5) a 53.8-65% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 158.5 around 49.6-55.6% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Sun have a 74.3% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 45.1% chance of going over the total.

Storm Situational Notes
In season revenge

Baller Systems
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Sun Situational Notes
Baller Systems
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Storm Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
9/5	NYL	SEA +8 NYL -8	165	SEA	-	-	-
9/3	CON	SEA +3.5 CON -3.5	158.5	SEA	-	-	-
9/1	CON [ 93 ]	SEA 0 CON 0	156	SEA [ 86 ]	-7	-7	+23
8/30	SEA [ 85 ]	SEA +3.5 NYL -3.5	162.5	NYL [ 98 ]	-13	-9.5	+20.5
8/28	SEA [ 85 ]	SEA -9 ATL +9	155.5	ATL [ 81 ]	+4	-5	+10.5
8/26	SEA [ 72 ]	SEA -10.5 WAS +10.5	161	WAS [ 74 ]	-2	-12.5	-15
8/20	WAS [ 77 ]	SEA -6.5 WAS +6.5	161	SEA [ 83 ]	+6	-0.5	-1
8/18	IND [ 92 ]	SEA -4 IND +4	171	SEA [ 75 ]	-17	-21	-4
8/16	ATL [ 83 ]	SEA -7 ATL +7	157	SEA [ 81 ]	-2	-9	+7
7/16	LAS [ 83 ]	SEA -10 LAS +10	162.5	SEA [ 89 ]	+6	-4	+9.5

Sun Schedule

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin
9/6	CON	CON +1.5 LVA -1.5	164.5	LVA	-	-	-
9/3	CON	CON -3.5 SEA +3.5	158.5	SEA	-	-	-
9/1	CON [ 93 ]	CON 0 SEA 0	156	SEA [ 86 ]	+7	+7	+23
8/31	WAS [ 85 ]	CON -8 WAS +8	153.5	CON [ 96 ]	+11	+3	+27.5
8/28	IND [ 84 ]	CON -4 IND +4	164.5	CON [ 80 ]	-4	-8	-0.5
8/24	NYL [ 64 ]	CON +8 NYL -8	158	CON [ 72 ]	+8	+16	-22
8/23	CON [ 82 ]	CON -11 CHI +11	153.5	CHI [ 80 ]	+2	-9	+8.5
8/20	CON [ 69 ]	CON -13.5 LAS +13.5	158	LAS [ 61 ]	+8	-5.5	-28
8/18	ATL [ 82 ]	CON -8 ATL +8	154.5	CON [ 70 ]	-12	-20	-2.5
8/16	DAL [ 91 ]	CON -6 DAL +6	160.5	CON [ 109 ]	+18	+12	+39.5

Historical Matchups

	Home	Line	Total	Away	SU Margin	ATS Margin	OU Margin	Pace	Ortg	Drtg	Net	Tot
9/3	CON	CON -3.5 SEA +3.5	158.5	SEA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9/1	CON [ 93 ]	CON 0 SEA 0	156	SEA [ 86 ]	+7	+7	+23	96	116.2	107.5	8.7	179
6/23	SEA [ 72 ]	CON +1 SEA -1	154	CON [ 61 ]	-11	-10	-21	89.4	81.8	96.6	-14.8	133
8/8	SEA [ 69 ]	CON -8 SEA +8	159.5	CON [ 81 ]	+12	+4	-9.5	88.7	109.6	93.4	16.2	150
7/6	CON [ 93 ]	CON -10.5 SEA +10.5	166	SEA [ 73 ]	+20	+9.5	0	97.2	114.8	90.1	24.7	166
6/20	SEA [ 79 ]	CON -8 SEA +8	160.5	CON [ 85 ]	+6	-2	+3.5	97.7	104.4	97	7.4	164

Filters

Isolate home/away splits:

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Include regular season:

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Current matchup:

Efficiency

Storm (last 32 games)		Sun (last 32 games)
0.63 (5)	Win Percentage	0.7 (3)
46.88 (7)	ATS Win%	43.75 (10)
45.16 (11)	OU%	48.39 (8)
-	Strength of Schedule	-
103.62 (4)	Offensive Rating	102.8 (7)
97.35 (4)	Defensive Rating	95.18 (2)
96.47 (4)	Pace	92.71 (12)
1.6 (4)	A/TO Ratio	1.49 (5)

Four Factors

Storm (last 32 games)		Sun (last 32 games)
48.24 (9)	EFG%	48.7 (8)
47.67 (3)	EFG% Allowed	48.33 (5)
25.17 (9)	FT Rate	31.03 (1)
26.82 (8)	FT Rate Allowed	26.59 (7)
24.06 (7)	OReb%	25.32 (3)
25.47 (10)	OReb% Allowed	21.53 (2)
16.1 (2)	TO Rate	17.17 (3)
20.15 (3)	TO Rate Forced	20.97 (1)

Scoring

Storm (last 32 games)		Sun (last 32 games)
83.83 (3)	PPG	79.93 (8)
78.75 (4)	PPG Allowed	74 (1)
17.5 (3)	Pts off TO	20.49 (1)
13.68 (4)	Pts off TO Allowed	13.12 (1)
11.05 (4)	2nd Chance Pts	13.52 (2)
10.9 (9)	2nd Chance Pts Allowed	9.02 (2)
11.38 (4)	Fast Break Pts	10.52 (6)
9.35 (3)	Fast Break Pts Allowed	8.42 (2)

Inside the Arc

Storm (last 32 games)		Sun (last 32 games)
37.73 (2)	Paint Attempts	36.3 (4)
36.98 (12)	Paint Attempts Allowed	32.18 (2)
53.68 (6)	Paint FG%	52.62 (7)
51.52 (5)	Paint FG% Allowed	53.07 (7)
12.58 (5)	Mid-Range Attempts	11.25 (6)
11.8 (1)	Mid-Range Attempts Allowed	12.65 (3)
0.38 (5)	Mid-Range FG%	0.36 (8)
0.3 (1)	Mid-Range FG% Allowed	0.37 (4)

Three Point Shooting

Storm (last 32 games)		Sun (last 32 games)
2.05 (11)	Corner 3 Attempts	2.3 (10)
4.45 (4)	Corner 3 Attempts Allowed	4.05 (2)
31.71 (10)	Corner 3 FG%	30.43 (12)
37.64 (9)	Corner 3 FG% Allowed	33.95 (4)
18.75 (8)	ATB3 Attempts	15.8 (11)
14.33 (5)	ATB3 Attempts Allowed	14.05 (1)
28.8 (12)	ATB3 FG%	33.39 (7)
31.76 (4)	ATB3 FG% Allowed	29.89 (1)

Straight Up Records (SU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Storm 1h	24-8-0	13-2-0	2-0-0	7-3-0	2-2-0	1-0-0	0-1-0	7-1-0	4-2-0
Storm	19-13	12-3	0-2	6-4	1-3	1-0	0-1	4-4	4-2
Sun 1h	19-11-2	11-1-1	0-1-1	6-6-0	1-3-0	2-1-0	3-0-0	6-4-1	8-4-0
Sun	24-8	12-1	0-2	9-3	2-2	3-0	2-1	8-3	8-4

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Storm 1h	17-14-1	8-7-0	2-0-0	5-4-1	2-2-0	1-0-0	0-1-0	5-3-0	3-3-0
Storm	15-17-0	9-6-0	0-2-0	4-6-0	2-2-0	1-0-0	1-0-0	4-4-0	3-3-0
Sun 1h	16-16-0	8-5-0	2-0-0	4-8-0	1-3-0	1-2-0	2-1-0	7-4-0	6-6-0
Sun	14-18-0	5-8-0	0-2-0	6-6-0	2-2-0	1-2-0	2-1-0	5-6-0	5-7-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Storm 1h	11-21-0	8-7-0	1-1-0	2-8-0	0-4-0	0-1-0	0-1-0	2-6-0	2-4-0
Storm	14-17-1	6-8-1	1-1-0	5-5-0	1-3-0	0-1-0	0-1-0	4-4-0	3-2-1
Sun 1h	11-21-0	4-9-0	0-2-0	7-5-0	0-4-0	3-0-0	0-3-0	4-7-0	3-9-0
Sun	15-16-1	5-7-1	1-1-0	7-5-0	1-3-0	3-0-0	2-1-0	5-6-0	6-5-1

Team Total Records (TT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Storm 1h	12-18-2	7-6-2	1-1-0	3-7-0	1-3-0	0-1-0	0-1-0	2-6-0	3-3-0
Storm	14-17-1	7-8-0	1-1-0	5-5-0	0-3-1	1-0-0	0-1-0	2-6-0	3-2-1
Sun 1h	12-19-1	4-9-0	0-1-1	6-6-0	1-3-0	3-0-0	2-1-0	4-6-1	5-7-0
Sun	14-18-0	4-9-0	0-2-0	8-4-0	1-3-0	2-1-0	1-2-0	6-5-0	3-9-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

Team	Overall	HF	HD	AF	AD	B2B (1st)	B2B (2nd)	+Rest	-Rest
Storm 1h	14-16-2	8-6-1	1-1-0	3-6-1	1-3-0	0-1-0	0-1-0	4-4-0	2-4-0
Storm	16-16-0	5-10-0	1-1-0	7-3-0	2-2-0	0-1-0	0-1-0	3-5-0	3-3-0
Sun 1h	11-21-0	1-12-0	0-2-0	8-4-0	2-2-0	2-1-0	0-3-0	5-6-0	2-10-0
Sun	15-17-0	4-9-0	1-1-0	9-3-0	0-4-0	3-0-0	2-1-0	4-7-0	6-6-0

ATS Range Records

Team	Dog 10+	Dog 7-10	Dog 2.5-7	Within 2.5	Fav 2.5-7	Fav 7-10	Fav 10+
Sun	0-0-0 (-)	1-0-0 (100%)	1-2-0 (33.3%)	1-3-0 (25%)	5-4-0 (55.6%)	4-4-0 (50%)	2-5-0 (28.6%)
Storm	1-0-0 (100%)	1-0-0 (100%)	0-3-0 (0%)	2-3-0 (40%)	5-4-0 (55.6%)	3-3-0 (50%)	3-4-0 (42.9%)