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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Mystics (+8) a 44.6-58.4% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 153.5 around 54.5-52.1% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Mystics have a 56.7% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 57.9% chance of going over the total.


Sun Situational Notes
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller Systems
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Mystics Situational Notes
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
In season revenge

Baller Systems
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Sun Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/1CONCON 0
SEA 0
156SEA---
8/31WASCON -8
WAS +8
153.5CON---
8/28IND [ 84 ]CON -4
IND +4
164.5CON [ 80 ]-4-8-0.5
8/24NYL [ 64 ]CON +8
NYL -8
158CON [ 72 ]+8+16-22
8/23CON [ 82 ]CON -11
CHI +11
153.5CHI [ 80 ]+2-9+8.5
8/20CON [ 69 ]CON -13.5
LAS +13.5
158LAS [ 61 ]+8-5.5-28
8/18ATL [ 82 ]CON -8
ATL +8
154.5CON [ 70 ]-12-20-2.5
8/16DAL [ 91 ]CON -6
DAL +6
160.5CON [ 109 ]+18+12+39.5
7/16NYL [ 82 ]CON -2
NYL +2
152.5CON [ 74 ]-8-10+3.5
7/14CON [ 96 ]CON -7.5
PHO +7.5
158.5PHO [ 69 ]+27+19.5+6.5

Mystics Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/3DALWAS +5.5
DAL -5.5
174.5WAS---
8/31WASWAS +8
CON -8
153.5CON---
8/28CHI [ 70 ]WAS -2
CHI +2
157WAS [ 74 ]+4+2-13
8/26SEA [ 72 ]WAS +10.5
SEA -10.5
161WAS [ 74 ]+2+12.5-15
8/23WAS [ 80 ]WAS -4.5
LAS +4.5
164LAS [ 74 ]+6+1.5-10
8/20WAS [ 77 ]WAS +6.5
SEA -6.5
161SEA [ 83 ]-6+0.5-1
8/17WAS [ 83 ]WAS +3.5
MIN -3.5
157.5MIN [ 99 ]-16-12.5+24.5
8/15MIN [ 79 ]WAS +8
MIN -8
156.5WAS [ 68 ]-11-3-9.5
7/16WAS [ 87 ]WAS +4.5
PHO -4.5
167.5PHO [ 96 ]-9-4.5+15.5
7/14WAS [ 77 ]WAS +12
LVA -12
171.5LVA [ 89 ]-120-5.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
8/31WASWAS +8
CON -8
153.5CON--------
6/27WAS [ 91 ]WAS +10.5
CON -10.5
152CON [ 94 ]-3+7.5+3394.9104.2107.7-3.4167.5
6/4CON [ 76 ]WAS +13
CON -13
152WAS [ 59 ]-17-4-178682.4106.1-23.7135
5/17CON [ 84 ]WAS +8
CON -8
157.5WAS [ 77 ]-7+1+3.593.998.4107.4-8.9161
8/22WAS [ 64 ]WAS +3.5
CON -3.5
159.5CON [ 68 ]-4-0.5-27.590.484.990.2-5.3132
7/9CON [ 92 ]WAS +4.5
CON -4.5
160.5WAS [ 84 ]-8-3.5+15.594.7106.4116.6-10.1176
5/23WAS [ 81 ]WAS -5
CON +5
158CON [ 88 ]-7-12+1191.3106.4115.6-9.2169
5/21CON [ 80 ]WAS -1
CON +1
158.5WAS [ 74 ]-6-7-4.599.789.196.3-7.2154


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h17-11-211-1-10-1-15-6-01-3-01-1-02-0-06-4-17-4-0
Sun 22-812-10-28-32-22-01-18-37-4
Mystics 1h14-14-30-2-08-5-01-0-05-7-32-0-00-2-05-3-13-4-0
Mystics 9-222-02-111-04-111-11-12-74-3

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h15-15-08-5-02-0-04-7-01-3-01-1-01-1-07-4-05-6-0
Sun 12-18-05-8-00-2-05-6-02-2-00-2-01-1-05-6-04-7-0
Mystics 1h20-9-20-2-08-4-11-0-011-3-12-0-00-1-16-2-14-2-1
Mystics 20-10-12-0-07-5-11-0-010-5-01-1-02-0-04-4-16-1-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h10-20-04-9-00-2-06-5-00-4-02-0-00-2-04-7-03-8-0
Sun 13-16-15-7-11-1-06-5-01-3-02-0-01-1-05-6-05-5-1
Mystics 1h14-16-11-1-06-6-11-0-06-9-01-1-01-0-14-5-03-3-1
Mystics 16-15-01-1-07-6-00-1-08-7-01-1-02-0-04-5-02-5-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h10-19-14-9-00-1-15-6-01-3-02-0-01-1-04-6-14-7-0
Sun 12-18-04-9-00-2-07-4-01-3-01-1-00-2-06-5-02-9-0
Mystics 1h16-13-21-1-08-4-11-0-06-8-12-0-01-0-15-4-03-2-2
Mystics 15-15-11-1-07-6-00-1-07-7-11-1-02-0-03-5-13-4-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h10-20-01-12-00-2-07-4-02-2-01-1-00-2-05-6-02-9-0
Sun 13-17-04-9-01-1-08-3-00-4-02-0-01-1-04-7-05-6-0
Mystics 1h10-19-22-0-03-8-20-1-05-10-00-2-01-0-13-6-02-4-1
Mystics 13-18-01-1-06-7-00-1-06-9-00-2-02-0-03-6-02-5-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Mystics6-2-1 (75%)3-2-0 (60%)7-6-0 (53.8%)3-0-0 (100%)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Sun0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)1-2-0 (33.3%)0-3-0 (0%)5-4-0 (55.6%)3-4-0 (42.9%)2-5-0 (28.6%)