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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Sky (+7) a 71.3-46.8% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 163.5 around 54.5-55.1% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Sky have a 73.3% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 50.6% chance of going over the total.


Fever Situational Notes
In season revenge
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Systems
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Sky Situational Notes

Fever Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/1DALIND -3
DAL +3
183.5IND---
8/30CHIIND -7
CHI +7
163.5IND---
8/28IND [ 84 ]IND +4
CON -4
164.5CON [ 80 ]+4+8-0.5
8/26ATL [ 79 ]IND -1.5
ATL +1.5
167IND [ 84 ]+5+3.5-4
8/24MIN [ 90 ]IND +4.5
MIN -4.5
168IND [ 80 ]-10-5.5+2
8/18IND [ 92 ]IND +4
SEA -4
171SEA [ 75 ]+17+21-4
8/16IND [ 98 ]IND -3
PHO +3
174PHO [ 89 ]+9+6+13
7/17DAL [ 101 ]IND -4.5
DAL +4.5
178IND [ 93 ]-8-12.5+16
7/14MIN [ 74 ]IND +5
MIN -5
164IND [ 81 ]+7+12-9
7/12IND [ 95 ]IND -1.5
PHO +1.5
172.5PHO [ 86 ]+9+7.5+8.5

Sky Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
9/1MINCHI +12
MIN -12
158CHI---
8/30CHICHI +7
IND -7
163.5IND---
8/28CHI [ 70 ]CHI +2
WAS -2
157WAS [ 74 ]-4-2-13
8/25CHI [ 75 ]CHI +9.5
LVA -9.5
169LVA [ 77 ]-2+7.5-17
8/23CON [ 82 ]CHI +11
CON -11
153.5CHI [ 80 ]-2+9+8.5
8/18PHO [ 86 ]CHI +7.5
PHO -7.5
166CHI [ 68 ]-18-10.5-12
8/17LAS [ 86 ]CHI -3
LAS +3
160.5CHI [ 90 ]+4+1+15.5
8/15CHI [ 65 ]CHI +5.5
PHO -5.5
162PHO [ 85 ]-20-14.5-12
7/16LVA [ 85 ]CHI +13
LVA -13
173.5CHI [ 93 ]+8+21+4.5
7/13CHI [ 67 ]CHI +3.5
NYL -3.5
164NYL [ 81 ]-14-10.5-16

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
8/30CHICHI +7
IND -7
163.5IND--------
6/23CHI [ 88 ]CHI -2
IND +2
169.5IND [ 87 ]+1-1+5.598.8106.9105.71.2175
6/16IND [ 91 ]CHI +2.5
IND -2.5
170CHI [ 83 ]-8-5.5+492108.3118.7-10.4174
6/1IND [ 71 ]CHI -1.5
IND +1.5
167.5CHI [ 70 ]-1-2.5-26.591.791.692.9-1.3141
9/5IND [ 69 ]CHI +1
IND -1
164.5CHI [ 96 ]+27+28+0.596.811985.533.5165
7/2IND [ 87 ]CHI +3
IND -3
159.5CHI [ 89 ]+2+5+16.594.8112.7110.12.5176
6/15CHI [ 90 ]CHI +1.5
IND -1.5
157IND [ 92 ]-2-0.5+2586.8124.4127.1-2.8182
6/6CHI [ 108 ]CHI -5
IND +5
157IND [ 103 ]+50+5491129123.16191.1


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Fever 1h14-16-14-2-06-2-03-2-01-10-11-1-00-2-04-4-05-5-0
Fever 15-164-25-34-12-102-00-25-34-6
Sky 1h11-19-03-1-02-9-01-4-05-5-01-1-01-1-03-5-00-5-0
Sky 11-194-00-113-24-62-00-24-41-4

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Fever 1h15-14-23-2-16-2-02-2-14-8-01-1-01-1-04-3-15-4-1
Fever 18-13-04-2-06-2-03-2-05-7-02-0-00-2-04-4-06-4-0
Sky 1h14-14-22-1-15-5-11-4-06-4-00-1-11-1-05-3-01-4-0
Sky 13-16-13-1-02-9-03-2-05-4-12-0-00-2-04-4-01-4-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Fever 1h19-11-15-1-04-4-03-1-17-5-00-2-01-1-05-2-17-3-0
Fever 19-12-06-0-03-5-03-2-07-5-00-2-02-0-07-1-06-4-0
Sky 1h12-18-01-3-04-7-03-2-04-6-01-1-01-1-04-4-03-2-0
Sky 15-15-01-3-04-7-03-2-07-3-01-1-01-1-05-3-04-1-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Fever 1h11-18-24-2-03-4-12-2-12-10-00-2-00-2-04-3-15-5-0
Fever 19-12-04-2-06-2-03-2-06-6-00-2-01-1-05-3-06-4-0
Sky 1h13-16-12-2-03-8-02-3-06-3-11-1-01-1-05-3-02-3-0
Sky 15-15-02-2-04-7-03-2-06-4-01-1-00-2-05-3-03-2-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Fever 1h17-12-23-3-03-5-03-1-18-3-11-1-01-1-05-2-15-5-0
Fever 17-13-14-1-14-4-02-3-07-5-00-2-02-0-06-2-05-4-1
Sky 1h13-17-01-3-05-6-04-1-03-7-01-1-01-1-04-4-03-2-0
Sky 12-18-01-3-06-5-02-3-03-7-01-1-01-1-03-5-03-2-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Sky4-1-0 (80%)1-6-1 (14.3%)2-3-0 (40%)1-5-0 (16.7%)4-1-0 (80%)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)
Fever2-4-0 (33.3%)1-2-0 (33.3%)6-3-0 (66.7%)5-0-0 (100%)4-3-0 (57.1%)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)