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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Fever (+4) a 34.1-60.9% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 164.5 around 53.9-53.5% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Fever have a 52.5% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 57.3% chance of going over the total.


Sun Situational Notes
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Systems
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Fever Situational Notes
Double digit, in season revenge

Baller Systems
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Sun Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
8/31WASCON -8
WAS +8
153.5CON---
8/28INDCON -4
IND +4
164.5CON---
8/24NYL [ 64 ]CON +8
NYL -8
158CON [ 72 ]+8+16-22
8/23CON [ 82 ]CON -11
CHI +11
153.5CHI [ 80 ]+2-9+8.5
8/20CON [ 69 ]CON -13.5
LAS +13.5
158LAS [ 61 ]+8-5.5-28
8/18ATL [ 82 ]CON -8
ATL +8
154.5CON [ 70 ]-12-20-2.5
8/16DAL [ 91 ]CON -6
DAL +6
160.5CON [ 109 ]+18+12+39.5
7/16NYL [ 82 ]CON -2
NYL +2
152.5CON [ 74 ]-8-10+3.5
7/14CON [ 96 ]CON -7.5
PHO +7.5
158.5PHO [ 69 ]+27+19.5+6.5
7/10CON [ 68 ]CON +2.5
NYL -2.5
159NYL [ 71 ]-3-0.5-20

Fever Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
8/30CHIIND -7
CHI +7
163.5IND---
8/28INDIND +4
CON -4
164.5CON---
8/26ATL [ 79 ]IND -1.5
ATL +1.5
167IND [ 84 ]+5+3.5-4
8/24MIN [ 90 ]IND +4.5
MIN -4.5
168IND [ 80 ]-10-5.5+2
8/18IND [ 92 ]IND +4
SEA -4
171SEA [ 75 ]+17+21-4
8/16IND [ 98 ]IND -3
PHO +3
174PHO [ 89 ]+9+6+13
7/17DAL [ 101 ]IND -4.5
DAL +4.5
178IND [ 93 ]-8-12.5+16
7/14MIN [ 74 ]IND +5
MIN -5
164IND [ 81 ]+7+12-9
7/12IND [ 95 ]IND -1.5
PHO +1.5
172.5PHO [ 86 ]+9+7.5+8.5
7/10IND [ 84 ]IND -7
WAS +7
167.5WAS [ 89 ]-5-12+5.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
8/28INDIND +4
CON -4
164.5CON--------
6/10CON [ 89 ]IND +10
CON -10
159.5IND [ 72 ]-17-7+1.585.8100.7124.5-23.8161
5/20IND [ 84 ]IND +5.5
CON -5.5
163.5CON [ 88 ]-4+1.5+8.590.3111.7117-5.3172
5/14CON [ 92 ]IND +6.5
CON -6.5
166.5IND [ 71 ]-21-14.5-3.596.188.6114.8-26.2163
9/8CON [ 76 ]IND +10
CON -10
160.5IND [ 59 ]-17-7-25.590.178.6101.2-22.6135
8/4IND [ 72 ]IND +8
CON -8
160.5CON [ 88 ]-16-8-0.588.198.1119.9-21.8160
5/30CON [ 81 ]IND +12.5
CON -12.5
158IND [ 78 ]-3+9.5+192.2101.5105.4-3.9159
5/19IND [ 61 ]IND +8
CON -8
162CON [ 70 ]-9-1-3197.874.985.9-11131


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h17-10-211-1-10-1-15-5-01-3-01-1-02-0-06-3-17-4-0
Sun 22-712-10-28-22-22-01-18-27-4
Fever 1h13-16-14-2-05-2-03-2-01-10-11-1-00-2-04-4-04-5-0
Fever 14-164-24-34-12-102-00-25-33-6

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h15-14-08-5-02-0-04-6-01-3-01-1-01-1-07-3-05-6-0
Sun 12-17-05-8-00-2-05-5-02-2-00-2-01-1-05-5-04-7-0
Fever 1h14-14-23-2-15-2-02-2-14-8-01-1-01-1-04-3-14-4-1
Fever 17-13-04-2-05-2-03-2-05-7-02-0-00-2-04-4-05-4-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h9-20-04-9-00-2-05-5-00-4-02-0-00-2-03-7-03-8-0
Sun 13-15-15-7-11-1-06-4-01-3-02-0-01-1-05-5-05-5-1
Fever 1h18-11-15-1-03-4-03-1-17-5-00-2-01-1-05-2-16-3-0
Fever 19-11-06-0-03-4-03-2-07-5-00-2-02-0-07-1-06-3-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h10-18-14-9-00-1-15-5-01-3-02-0-01-1-04-5-14-7-0
Sun 12-17-04-9-00-2-07-3-01-3-01-1-00-2-06-4-02-9-0
Fever 1h10-18-24-2-02-4-12-2-12-10-00-2-00-2-04-3-14-5-0
Fever 18-12-04-2-05-2-03-2-06-6-00-2-01-1-05-3-05-4-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h9-20-01-12-00-2-06-4-02-2-01-1-00-2-04-6-02-9-0
Sun 12-17-04-9-01-1-07-3-00-4-02-0-01-1-03-7-05-6-0
Fever 1h17-11-23-3-03-4-03-1-18-3-11-1-01-1-05-2-15-4-0
Fever 17-12-14-1-14-3-02-3-07-5-00-2-02-0-06-2-05-3-1


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Fever2-4-0 (33.3%)1-2-0 (33.3%)5-3-0 (62.5%)5-0-0 (100%)4-3-0 (57.1%)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)
Sun0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)1-2-0 (33.3%)0-3-0 (0%)5-3-0 (62.5%)3-4-0 (42.9%)2-5-0 (28.6%)