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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Sky (+9.5) a 58.7-53.3% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 169 around 50.7-48.8% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Sky have a 49.3% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 49.2% chance of going over the total.


Aces Situational Notes
In season revenge
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Baller Systems
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Sky Situational Notes
1st game home off long road trip (at least three games)

Aces Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
8/27DALLVA -9.5
DAL +9.5
181LVA---
8/25CHILVA -9.5
CHI +9.5
169LVA---
8/23MIN [ 87 ]LVA -3
MIN +3
166.5LVA [ 74 ]-13-16-5.5
8/21LVA [ 87 ]LVA -7
MIN +7
167.5MIN [ 98 ]-11-18+17.5
8/18LVA [ 87 ]LVA -16.5
LAS +16.5
173.5LAS [ 71 ]+16-0.5-15.5
8/17LVA [ 67 ]LVA -3.5
NYL +3.5
175NYL [ 79 ]-12-15.5-29
7/16LVA [ 85 ]LVA -13
CHI +13
173.5CHI [ 93 ]-8-21+4.5
7/14WAS [ 77 ]LVA -12
WAS +12
171.5LVA [ 89 ]+120-5.5
7/12ATL [ 70 ]LVA -14.5
ATL +14.5
170LVA [ 84 ]+14-0.5-16
7/10SEA [ 79 ]LVA -4
SEA +4
172.5LVA [ 84 ]+5+1-9.5

Sky Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
8/28CHICHI +2
WAS -2
157WAS---
8/25CHICHI +9.5
LVA -9.5
169LVA---
8/23CON [ 82 ]CHI +11
CON -11
153.5CHI [ 80 ]-2+9+8.5
8/18PHO [ 86 ]CHI +7.5
PHO -7.5
166CHI [ 68 ]-18-10.5-12
8/17LAS [ 86 ]CHI -3
LAS +3
160.5CHI [ 90 ]+4+1+15.5
8/15CHI [ 65 ]CHI +5.5
PHO -5.5
162PHO [ 85 ]-20-14.5-12
7/16LVA [ 85 ]CHI +13
LVA -13
173.5CHI [ 93 ]+8+21+4.5
7/13CHI [ 67 ]CHI +3.5
NYL -3.5
164NYL [ 81 ]-14-10.5-16
7/11NYL [ 91 ]CHI +9.5
NYL -9.5
165.5CHI [ 76 ]-15-5.5+1.5
7/10CHI [ 78 ]CHI -7
ATL +7
154.5ATL [ 69 ]+9+2-7.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/3LVACHI +13.5
LVA -13.5
162.5CHI--------
8/25CHICHI +9.5
LVA -9.5
169LVA--------
7/16LVA [ 85 ]CHI +13
LVA -13
173.5CHI [ 93 ]+8+21+4.5100.6110.9101.39.5178
6/27CHI [ 83 ]CHI +10.5
LVA -10.5
173LVA [ 95 ]-12-1.5+594.3105.7120.9-15.3178
9/17LVA [ 92 ]CHI +18
LVA -18
170.5CHI [ 70 ]-22-4-8.592.690.8119.3-28.5162
9/13LVA [ 87 ]CHI +16.5
LVA -16.5
172CHI [ 59 ]-28-11.5-2695.774109.1-35.1146
8/24CHI [ 87 ]CHI +14.5
LVA -14.5
171LVA [ 94 ]-7+7.5+10101.5102.8111.1-8.3181
7/25CHI [ 95 ]CHI +14.5
LVA -14.5
167.5LVA [ 107 ]-12+2.5+34.595.7119.2134.2-15.1202
6/11LVA [ 93 ]CHI +13
LVA -13
168CHI [ 80 ]-130+591.7104.7121.7-17173



Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Aces 1h17-11-010-6-00-0-07-5-00-0-01-1-01-1-07-1-02-6-0
Aces 17-119-70-08-40-01-11-17-13-5
Sky 1h11-17-03-1-02-7-01-4-05-5-01-1-01-1-03-4-00-5-0
Sky 11-174-00-93-24-62-00-24-31-4

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Aces 1h9-19-04-12-00-0-05-7-00-0-01-1-00-2-05-3-01-7-0
Aces 10-17-16-10-00-0-04-7-10-0-01-1-00-2-06-2-01-6-1
Sky 1h13-13-22-1-14-4-11-4-06-4-00-1-11-1-05-2-01-4-0
Sky 12-15-13-1-01-8-03-2-05-4-12-0-00-2-04-3-01-4-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Aces 1h8-20-04-12-00-0-04-8-00-0-00-2-00-2-01-7-02-6-0
Aces 14-14-09-7-00-0-05-7-00-0-01-1-01-1-05-3-04-4-0
Sky 1h11-17-01-3-03-6-03-2-04-6-01-1-01-1-03-4-03-2-0
Sky 15-13-01-3-04-5-03-2-07-3-01-1-01-1-05-2-04-1-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Aces 1h7-21-05-11-00-0-02-10-00-0-00-2-00-2-02-6-03-5-0
Aces 8-20-04-12-00-0-04-8-00-0-01-1-00-2-04-4-01-7-0
Sky 1h13-14-12-2-03-6-02-3-06-3-11-1-01-1-05-2-02-3-0
Sky 15-13-02-2-04-5-03-2-06-4-01-1-00-2-05-2-03-2-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Aces 1h13-15-07-9-00-0-06-6-00-0-00-2-01-1-01-7-06-2-0
Aces 15-12-19-6-10-0-06-6-00-0-00-2-01-1-04-3-15-3-0
Sky 1h12-16-01-3-04-5-04-1-03-7-01-1-01-1-03-4-03-2-0
Sky 12-16-01-3-06-3-02-3-03-7-01-1-01-1-03-4-03-2-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Sky4-1-0 (80%)0-6-1 (0%)2-3-0 (40%)1-4-0 (20%)4-1-0 (80%)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)
Aces0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)4-4-0 (50%)1-4-0 (20%)5-9-1 (35.7%)