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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Liberty (-8) a 45.2-69.5% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 158 around 54-51% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Liberty have a 51.9% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 58.3% chance of going over the total.


Sun Situational Notes
In season revenge
Rest disadvantage

Liberty Situational Notes
Rest advantage

Baller Systems
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Sun Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
8/28INDCON -4
IND +4
164.5CON---
8/24NYLCON +8
NYL -8
158CON---
8/23CON [ 82 ]CON -11
CHI +11
153.5CHI [ 80 ]+2-9+8.5
8/20CON [ 69 ]CON -13.5
LAS +13.5
158LAS [ 61 ]+8-5.5-28
8/18ATL [ 82 ]CON -8
ATL +8
154.5CON [ 70 ]-12-20-2.5
8/16DAL [ 91 ]CON -6
DAL +6
160.5CON [ 109 ]+18+12+39.5
7/16NYL [ 82 ]CON -2
NYL +2
152.5CON [ 74 ]-8-10+3.5
7/14CON [ 96 ]CON -7.5
PHO +7.5
158.5PHO [ 69 ]+27+19.5+6.5
7/10CON [ 68 ]CON +2.5
NYL -2.5
159NYL [ 71 ]-3-0.5-20
7/7CON [ 80 ]CON -14.5
ATL +14.5
150.5ATL [ 67 ]+13-1.5-3.5

Liberty Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
8/26PHONYL -6
PHO +6
166NYL---
8/24NYLNYL -8
CON +8
158CON---
8/22NYL [ 79 ]NYL -11.5
DAL +11.5
174DAL [ 71 ]+8-3.5-24
8/20NYL [ 94 ]NYL -11
DAL +11
174DAL [ 74 ]+20+9-6
8/17LVA [ 67 ]NYL +3.5
LVA -3.5
175NYL [ 79 ]+12+15.5-29
8/15LAS [ 68 ]NYL -11.5
LAS +11.5
164.5NYL [ 103 ]+35+23.5+6.5
7/16NYL [ 82 ]NYL +2
CON -2
152.5CON [ 74 ]+8+10+3.5
7/13CHI [ 67 ]NYL -3.5
CHI +3.5
164NYL [ 81 ]+14+10.5-16
7/11NYL [ 91 ]NYL -9.5
CHI +9.5
165.5CHI [ 76 ]+15+5.5+1.5
7/10CON [ 68 ]NYL -2.5
CON +2.5
159NYL [ 71 ]+3+0.5-20

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
8/24NYLNYL -8
CON +8
158CON--------
7/16NYL [ 82 ]NYL +2
CON -2
152.5CON [ 74 ]+8+10+3.593.2105.695.310.3156
7/10CON [ 68 ]NYL -2.5
CON +2.5
159NYL [ 71 ]+3+0.5-2087.397.693.54.1139
6/8CON [ 75 ]NYL -2
CON +2
154NYL [ 82 ]+7+5+392.6106.397.29.1157
10/1CON [ 84 ]NYL -5.5
CON +5.5
160.5NYL [ 87 ]+3-2.5+10.595.5109.3105.53.8171
9/29CON [ 81 ]NYL -4
CON +4
158NYL [ 92 ]+11+7+1591121.3106.814.5173
9/26NYL [ 84 ]NYL -9.5
CON +9.5
159CON [ 77 ]+7-2.5+290.4111.4102.29.3161
9/24NYL [ 63 ]NYL -8.5
CON +8.5
163CON [ 78 ]-15-23.5-228193.3115.5-22.2141
9/1NYL [ 89 ]NYL -7
CON +7
160CON [ 58 ]+31+24-1390.3118.377.141.2147
8/24CON [ 90 ]NYL -6
CON +6
166NYL [ 95 ]+5-1+1990.5114.1108.16167.5
6/27CON [ 81 ]NYL -4.5
CON +4.5
168NYL [ 89 ]+8+3.5+294113.6103.410.2170



Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h16-10-211-1-10-1-15-5-00-3-01-1-01-0-06-3-16-4-0
Sun 21-712-10-28-21-22-00-18-26-4
Liberty 1h20-7-310-3-21-0-07-4-12-0-02-0-11-1-16-2-06-1-2
Liberty 25-513-21-09-32-03-03-07-17-2

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h14-14-08-5-02-0-04-6-00-3-01-1-00-1-07-3-04-6-0
Sun 11-17-05-8-00-2-05-5-01-2-00-2-00-1-05-5-03-7-0
Liberty 1h13-17-05-10-01-0-05-7-02-0-01-2-01-2-04-4-04-5-0
Liberty 15-15-04-11-01-0-08-4-02-0-02-1-02-1-04-4-06-3-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h9-19-04-9-00-2-05-5-00-3-02-0-00-1-03-7-03-7-0
Sun 13-14-15-7-11-1-06-4-01-2-02-0-01-0-05-5-05-4-1
Liberty 1h12-18-07-8-01-0-04-8-00-2-01-2-02-1-04-4-04-5-0
Liberty 15-15-09-6-01-0-05-7-00-2-02-1-03-0-03-5-05-4-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h9-18-14-9-00-1-15-5-00-3-02-0-00-1-04-5-13-7-0
Sun 12-16-04-9-00-2-07-3-01-2-01-1-00-1-06-4-02-8-0
Liberty 1h15-15-07-8-01-0-06-6-01-1-01-2-02-1-04-4-05-4-0
Liberty 16-14-08-7-01-0-06-6-01-1-02-1-03-0-04-4-06-3-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h9-19-01-12-00-2-06-4-02-1-01-1-00-1-04-6-02-8-0
Sun 12-16-04-9-01-1-07-3-00-3-02-0-01-0-03-7-05-5-0
Liberty 1h14-15-19-6-01-0-04-7-10-2-01-1-12-1-04-4-04-4-1
Liberty 11-19-07-8-00-1-04-8-00-2-01-2-01-2-01-7-03-6-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Liberty0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)2-0-0 (100%)2-0-0 (100%)4-3-0 (57.1%)4-0-0 (100%)3-12-0 (20%)
Sun0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-2-0 (33.3%)0-3-0 (0%)5-3-0 (62.5%)3-4-0 (42.9%)2-5-0 (28.6%)