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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Dream (+1.5) a 55.3-46.5% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 167 around 50.2-49.9% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Dream have a 61.2% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 47.8% chance of going over the total.


Fever Situational Notes
Rest disadvantage

Dream Situational Notes
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
Double digit, in season revenge
Rest advantage

Baller Systems
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Fever Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
8/28INDIND +4
CON -4
164.5CON---
8/26ATLIND -1.5
ATL +1.5
167IND---
8/24MIN [ 90 ]IND +4.5
MIN -4.5
168IND [ 80 ]-10-5.5+2
8/18IND [ 92 ]IND +4
SEA -4
171SEA [ 75 ]+17+21-4
8/16IND [ 98 ]IND -3
PHO +3
174PHO [ 89 ]+9+6+13
7/17DAL [ 101 ]IND -4.5
DAL +4.5
178IND [ 93 ]-8-12.5+16
7/14MIN [ 74 ]IND +5
MIN -5
164IND [ 81 ]+7+12-9
7/12IND [ 95 ]IND -1.5
PHO +1.5
172.5PHO [ 86 ]+9+7.5+8.5
7/10IND [ 84 ]IND -7
WAS +7
167.5WAS [ 89 ]-5-12+5.5
7/6IND [ 83 ]IND +10.5
NYL -10.5
174.5NYL [ 78 ]+5+15.5-13.5

Dream Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
8/28SEAATL +9
SEA -9
155.5ATL---
8/26ATLATL +1.5
IND -1.5
167IND---
8/23ATL [ 80 ]ATL +2
PHO -2
161.5PHO [ 82 ]-20+0.5
8/21ATL [ 72 ]ATL +3
PHO -3
166PHO [ 63 ]+9+12-31
8/18ATL [ 82 ]ATL +8
CON -8
154.5CON [ 70 ]+12+20-2.5
8/16ATL [ 83 ]ATL +7
SEA -7
157SEA [ 81 ]+2+9+7
7/17MIN [ 86 ]ATL +7.5
MIN -7.5
150.5ATL [ 79 ]-7+0.5+14.5
7/14SEA [ 81 ]ATL +14.5
SEA -14.5
155ATL [ 70 ]-11+3.5-4
7/12ATL [ 70 ]ATL +14.5
LVA -14.5
170LVA [ 84 ]-14+0.5-16
7/10CHI [ 78 ]ATL +7
CHI -7
154.5ATL [ 69 ]-9-2-7.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/8INDATL +5.5
IND -5.5
170ATL--------
8/26ATLATL +1.5
IND -1.5
167IND--------
6/21ATL [ 79 ]ATL +3
IND -3
163IND [ 91 ]-12-9+795.699.2114.2-15.1170
6/13IND [ 91 ]ATL -2.5
IND +2.5
164ATL [ 84 ]-7-9.5+1192.1109.5118.6-9.1175
8/27IND [ 83 ]ATL -1
IND +1
164.5ATL [ 80 ]-3-4-1.594.1102.1105.9-3.8163
8/6ATL [ 82 ]ATL -8
IND +8
167IND [ 73 ]+9+1-1291.4107.795.911.8155
6/18IND [ 94 ]ATL -1
IND +1
165.5ATL [ 100 ]+6+5+28.5105.3113.9107.16.8194
5/28ATL [ 87 ]ATL -7
IND +7
160.5IND [ 90 ]-3-10+16.595.4109.4113.2-3.8177


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Fever 1h12-16-14-2-05-2-02-2-01-10-11-1-00-2-04-4-03-5-0
Fever 13-164-24-33-12-102-00-25-32-6
Dream 1h7-20-11-3-02-9-02-2-12-6-00-0-00-0-01-7-02-4-0
Dream 10-182-24-73-21-70-00-02-62-4

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Fever 1h13-14-23-2-15-2-01-2-14-8-01-1-01-1-04-3-13-4-1
Fever 16-13-04-2-05-2-02-2-05-7-02-0-00-2-04-4-04-4-0
Dream 1h10-16-21-3-02-9-02-3-05-1-20-0-00-0-03-4-12-4-0
Dream 15-12-11-3-05-5-13-2-06-2-00-0-00-0-03-5-04-2-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Fever 1h17-11-15-1-03-4-02-1-17-5-00-2-01-1-05-2-15-3-0
Fever 19-10-06-0-03-4-03-1-07-5-00-2-02-0-07-1-06-2-0
Dream 1h10-17-13-1-04-7-03-2-00-7-10-0-00-0-03-4-11-5-0
Dream 13-14-11-2-15-6-04-1-03-5-00-0-00-0-04-3-13-3-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Fever 1h9-18-24-2-02-4-11-2-12-10-00-2-00-2-04-3-13-5-0
Fever 18-11-04-2-05-2-03-1-06-6-00-2-01-1-05-3-05-3-0
Dream 1h12-16-02-2-04-7-03-2-03-5-00-0-00-0-03-5-02-4-0
Dream 10-18-01-3-03-8-03-2-03-5-00-0-00-0-03-5-02-4-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Fever 1h17-10-23-3-03-4-03-0-18-3-11-1-01-1-05-2-15-3-0
Fever 17-11-14-1-14-3-02-2-07-5-00-2-02-0-06-2-05-2-1
Dream 1h10-17-13-0-14-7-03-2-00-8-00-0-00-0-03-4-12-4-0
Dream 12-16-02-2-04-7-04-1-02-6-00-0-00-0-04-4-02-4-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Dream4-0-0 (100%)5-3-0 (62.5%)2-3-0 (40%)1-2-1 (33.3%)3-4-0 (42.9%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Fever2-4-0 (33.3%)1-2-0 (33.3%)5-3-0 (62.5%)4-0-0 (100%)4-3-0 (57.1%)0-1-0 (0%)0-0-0 (-)