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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Liberty (-11) a 73.8-78.2% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 174 around 51.2-53.2% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Liberty have a 77.2% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 51.6% chance of going over the total.


Wings Situational Notes

Liberty Situational Notes
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Systems
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Wings Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
8/22NYLDAL +11.5
NYL -11.5
174DAL---
8/20NYLDAL +11
NYL -11
174DAL---
8/16DAL [ 91 ]DAL +6
CON -6
160.5CON [ 109 ]-18-12+39.5
7/17DAL [ 101 ]DAL +4.5
IND -4.5
178IND [ 93 ]+8+12.5+16
7/13DAL [ 81 ]DAL -3.5
LAS +3.5
171LAS [ 87 ]-6-9.5-3
7/10PHO [ 100 ]DAL +7.5
PHO -7.5
173DAL [ 84 ]-16-8.5+11
7/7LVA [ 104 ]DAL +16
LVA -16
180DAL [ 85 ]-19-3+9
7/5DAL [ 85 ]DAL -4.5
ATL +4.5
162.5ATL [ 82 ]+3-1.5+4.5
7/3DAL [ 96 ]DAL +5
PHO -5
171.5PHO [ 104 ]-8-3+28.5
7/1SEA [ 95 ]DAL +11.5
SEA -11.5
167.5DAL [ 71 ]-24-12.5-1.5

Liberty Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
8/22NYLNYL -11.5
DAL +11.5
174DAL---
8/20NYLNYL -11
DAL +11
174DAL---
8/17LVA [ 67 ]NYL +3.5
LVA -3.5
175NYL [ 79 ]+12+15.5-29
8/15LAS [ 68 ]NYL -11.5
LAS +11.5
164.5NYL [ 103 ]+35+23.5+6.5
7/16NYL [ 82 ]NYL +2
CON -2
152.5CON [ 74 ]+8+10+3.5
7/13CHI [ 67 ]NYL -3.5
CHI +3.5
164NYL [ 81 ]+14+10.5-16
7/11NYL [ 91 ]NYL -9.5
CHI +9.5
165.5CHI [ 76 ]+15+5.5+1.5
7/10CON [ 68 ]NYL -2.5
CON +2.5
159NYL [ 71 ]+3+0.5-20
7/6IND [ 83 ]NYL -10.5
IND +10.5
174.5NYL [ 78 ]-5-15.5-13.5
7/2NYL [ 76 ]NYL -6
MIN +6
169MIN [ 67 ]+9+3-26

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/12DALNYL -10.5
DAL +10.5
177.5NYL--------
9/10DALNYL -10.5
DAL +10.5
176NYL--------
8/22NYLNYL -11.5
DAL +11.5
174DAL--------
8/20NYLNYL -11
DAL +11
174DAL--------
9/5DAL [ 93 ]NYL -6.5
DAL +6.5
172.5NYL [ 94 ]+1-5.5+14.595.8117.7116.51.3187
7/19NYL [ 88 ]NYL -7.5
DAL +7.5
166.5DAL [ 98 ]-10-17.5+19.593.9112.5125.3-12.8186
6/11NYL [ 102 ]NYL -8.5
DAL +8.5
170DAL [ 93 ]+9+0.5+2597.2126114.911.1195


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Wings 1h8-18-02-2-01-7-01-1-04-8-01-1-02-0-02-3-02-7-0
Wings 6-202-22-60-22-101-11-13-22-7
Liberty 1h18-7-38-3-21-0-07-4-12-0-02-0-11-1-16-2-05-1-2
Liberty 23-511-21-09-32-03-03-07-16-2

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Wings 1h12-14-01-3-02-6-01-1-08-4-01-1-02-0-03-2-02-7-0
Wings 7-18-10-3-12-6-00-2-05-7-01-1-01-1-04-1-02-7-0
Liberty 1h12-16-04-9-01-0-05-7-02-0-01-2-01-2-04-4-03-5-0
Liberty 14-14-03-10-01-0-08-4-02-0-02-1-02-1-04-4-05-3-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Wings 1h16-7-32-1-16-2-01-0-17-4-12-0-02-0-04-1-05-2-2
Wings 18-8-02-2-07-1-01-1-08-4-02-0-02-0-04-1-06-3-0
Liberty 1h12-16-07-6-01-0-04-8-00-2-01-2-02-1-04-4-04-4-0
Liberty 15-13-09-4-01-0-05-7-00-2-02-1-03-0-03-5-05-3-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Wings 1h14-12-00-4-05-3-01-1-08-4-01-1-02-0-04-1-03-6-0
Wings 15-11-02-2-07-1-00-2-06-6-01-1-02-0-04-1-05-4-0
Liberty 1h14-14-06-7-01-0-06-6-01-1-01-2-02-1-04-4-04-4-0
Liberty 15-13-07-6-01-0-06-6-01-1-02-1-03-0-04-4-05-3-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Wings 1h14-12-03-1-06-2-01-1-04-8-01-1-01-1-02-3-06-3-0
Wings 22-3-14-0-08-0-02-0-08-3-12-0-01-0-14-1-07-1-1
Liberty 1h14-13-19-4-01-0-04-7-10-2-01-1-12-1-04-4-04-3-1
Liberty 11-17-07-6-00-1-04-8-00-2-01-2-01-2-01-7-03-5-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Liberty0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)2-0-0 (100%)2-0-0 (100%)4-3-0 (57.1%)4-0-0 (100%)2-11-0 (15.4%)
Wings1-3-0 (25%)2-2-0 (50%)3-6-0 (33.3%)1-2-0 (33.3%)0-5-0 (0%)0-0-1 (-)0-0-0 (-)