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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Dream (+3) a 47.8-35.7% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 166 around 50.4-59% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Dream have a 53.7% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 47.1% chance of going over the total.


Mercury Situational Notes
Well rested (two or more days of rest)

Dream Situational Notes
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
In season revenge
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Systems
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Mercury Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
8/23ATLPHO -2
ATL +2
161.5PHO---
8/21ATLPHO -3
ATL +3
166PHO---
8/18PHO [ 86 ]PHO -7.5
CHI +7.5
166CHI [ 68 ]+18+10.5-12
8/16IND [ 98 ]PHO +3
IND -3
174PHO [ 89 ]-9-6+13
8/15CHI [ 65 ]PHO -5.5
CHI +5.5
162PHO [ 85 ]+20+14.5-12
7/16WAS [ 87 ]PHO -4.5
WAS +4.5
167.5PHO [ 96 ]+9+4.5+15.5
7/14CON [ 96 ]PHO +7.5
CON -7.5
158.5PHO [ 69 ]-27-19.5+6.5
7/12IND [ 95 ]PHO +1.5
IND -1.5
172.5PHO [ 86 ]-9-7.5+8.5
7/10PHO [ 100 ]PHO -7.5
DAL +7.5
173DAL [ 84 ]+16+8.5+11
7/7LAS [ 78 ]PHO -4
LAS +4
167.5PHO [ 84 ]+6+2-5.5

Dream Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
8/23ATLATL +2
PHO -2
161.5PHO---
8/21ATLATL +3
PHO -3
166PHO---
8/18ATL [ 82 ]ATL +8
CON -8
154.5CON [ 70 ]+12+20-2.5
8/16ATL [ 83 ]ATL +7
SEA -7
157SEA [ 81 ]+2+9+7
7/17MIN [ 86 ]ATL +7.5
MIN -7.5
150.5ATL [ 79 ]-7+0.5+14.5
7/14SEA [ 81 ]ATL +14.5
SEA -14.5
155ATL [ 70 ]-11+3.5-4
7/12ATL [ 70 ]ATL +14.5
LVA -14.5
170LVA [ 84 ]-14+0.5-16
7/10CHI [ 78 ]ATL +7
CHI -7
154.5ATL [ 69 ]-9-2-7.5
7/7CON [ 80 ]ATL +14.5
CON -14.5
150.5ATL [ 67 ]-13+1.5-3.5
7/5DAL [ 85 ]ATL +4.5
DAL -4.5
162.5ATL [ 82 ]-3+1.5+4.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/3PHOATL +2
PHO -2
160.5ATL--------
8/23ATLATL +2
PHO -2
161.5PHO--------
8/21ATLATL +3
PHO -3
166PHO--------
5/18PHO [ 88 ]ATL -2
PHO +2
170ATL [ 85 ]-3-5+398.4103.6107.3-3.7173
8/29ATL [ 94 ]ATL -8
PHO +8
160PHO [ 76 ]+18+10+1092.3122.398.923.4170
8/3PHO [ 91 ]ATL -7.5
PHO +7.5
163ATL [ 71 ]-20-27.5-194.390.4115.8-25.5162
7/25ATL [ 78 ]ATL -7.5
PHO +7.5
163.5PHO [ 65 ]+13+5.5-20.594.499.182.616.5143


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h13-15-05-2-04-2-04-1-00-10-02-1-00-3-04-2-03-6-0
Mercury 15-135-24-25-01-91-20-34-22-7
Dream 1h6-19-11-3-01-8-02-2-12-6-00-0-00-0-01-7-02-4-0
Dream 9-172-23-63-21-70-00-02-62-4

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h15-13-03-4-05-1-04-1-03-7-02-1-01-2-05-1-04-5-0
Mercury 17-11-04-3-05-1-05-0-03-7-01-2-01-2-05-1-03-6-0
Dream 1h9-15-21-3-01-8-02-3-05-1-20-0-00-0-03-4-12-4-0
Dream 14-12-01-3-04-5-03-2-06-2-00-0-00-0-03-5-04-2-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h14-14-04-3-02-4-02-3-06-4-00-3-02-1-02-4-05-4-0
Mercury 15-13-04-3-03-3-03-2-05-5-00-3-01-2-02-4-04-5-0
Dream 1h9-16-13-1-03-6-03-2-00-7-10-0-00-0-03-4-11-5-0
Dream 12-13-11-2-14-5-04-1-03-5-00-0-00-0-04-3-13-3-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h13-14-13-4-04-2-02-2-14-6-02-1-01-2-03-3-04-5-0
Mercury 17-11-04-3-05-1-04-1-04-6-01-2-01-2-03-3-04-5-0
Dream 1h11-15-02-2-03-6-03-2-03-5-00-0-00-0-03-5-02-4-0
Dream 9-17-01-3-02-7-03-2-03-5-00-0-00-0-03-5-02-4-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h13-15-03-4-03-3-02-3-05-5-00-3-02-1-01-5-06-3-0
Mercury 14-14-04-3-03-3-03-2-04-6-01-2-02-1-01-5-06-3-0
Dream 1h9-16-13-0-13-6-03-2-00-8-00-0-00-0-03-4-12-4-0
Dream 11-15-02-2-03-6-04-1-02-6-00-0-00-0-04-4-02-4-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Dream4-0-0 (100%)5-3-0 (62.5%)1-3-0 (25%)1-2-0 (33.3%)3-4-0 (42.9%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Mercury3-0-0 (100%)0-2-0 (0%)4-5-0 (44.4%)2-1-0 (66.7%)5-2-0 (71.4%)2-1-0 (66.7%)1-0-0 (100%)