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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Dream (+8) a 36.8-26.6% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 154.5 around 53.3-55.3% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Dream have a 35.5% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 55.4% chance of going over the total.


Sun Situational Notes
Baller Systems
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Dream Situational Notes
Double digit, in season revenge
Coming off a win as a dog (letdown)

Baller Systems
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Sun Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
8/20CONCON -13.5
LAS +13.5
158LAS---
8/18ATLCON -8
ATL +8
154.5CON---
8/16DAL [ 91 ]CON -6
DAL +6
160.5CON [ 109 ]+18+12+39.5
7/16NYL [ 82 ]CON -2
NYL +2
152.5CON [ 74 ]-8-10+3.5
7/14CON [ 96 ]CON -7.5
PHO +7.5
158.5PHO [ 69 ]+27+19.5+6.5
7/10CON [ 68 ]CON +2.5
NYL -2.5
159NYL [ 71 ]-3-0.5-20
7/7CON [ 80 ]CON -14.5
ATL +14.5
150.5ATL [ 67 ]+13-1.5-3.5
7/4MIN [ 73 ]CON +3.5
MIN -3.5
150.5CON [ 78 ]+5+8.5+0.5
7/1PHO [ 72 ]CON -3
PHO +3
157.5CON [ 83 ]+11+8-2.5
6/28CON [ 74 ]CON -9.5
ATL +9.5
150ATL [ 78 ]-4-13.5+2

Dream Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
8/21ATLATL +3
PHO -3
166PHO---
8/18ATLATL +8
CON -8
154.5CON---
8/16ATL [ 83 ]ATL +7
SEA -7
157SEA [ 81 ]+2+9+7
7/17MIN [ 86 ]ATL +7.5
MIN -7.5
150.5ATL [ 79 ]-7+0.5+14.5
7/14SEA [ 81 ]ATL +14.5
SEA -14.5
155ATL [ 70 ]-11+3.5-4
7/12ATL [ 70 ]ATL +14.5
LVA -14.5
170LVA [ 84 ]-14+0.5-16
7/10CHI [ 78 ]ATL +7
CHI -7
154.5ATL [ 69 ]-9-2-7.5
7/7CON [ 80 ]ATL +14.5
CON -14.5
150.5ATL [ 67 ]-13+1.5-3.5
7/5DAL [ 85 ]ATL +4.5
DAL -4.5
162.5ATL [ 82 ]-3+1.5+4.5
7/2ATL [ 77 ]ATL +1
CHI -1
159CHI [ 85 ]-8-7+3

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
8/18ATLATL +8
CON -8
154.5CON--------
7/7CON [ 80 ]ATL +14.5
CON -14.5
150.5ATL [ 67 ]-13+1.5-3.579.5101.2120.8-19.6147
6/28CON [ 74 ]ATL +9.5
CON -9.5
150ATL [ 78 ]+4+13.5+293100.795.55.2152
6/2ATL [ 50 ]ATL +2.5
CON -2.5
159CON [ 69 ]-19-16.5-4091.365.790.7-25119
7/22ATL [ 78 ]ATL -2
CON +2
167.5CON [ 86 ]-8-10-3.598.495.1104.8-9.8164
7/20CON [ 82 ]ATL +5
CON -5
169ATL [ 71 ]-11-6-1697.987.1100.6-13.5153
6/15CON [ 88 ]ATL +9
CON -9
163.5ATL [ 92 ]+4+13+16.594.4105.9101.34.6163
6/11ATL [ 77 ]ATL +3.5
CON -3.5
163CON [ 89 ]-12-8.5+3105.287.8101.5-13.7166


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h14-9-29-1-10-1-15-4-00-3-00-1-01-0-06-3-15-4-0
Sun 19-610-10-28-11-21-00-18-25-4
Dream 1h5-19-11-3-00-8-02-2-12-6-00-0-00-0-01-7-02-4-0
Dream 8-172-22-63-21-70-00-02-62-4

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h13-12-07-4-02-0-04-5-00-3-00-1-00-1-07-3-03-6-0
Sun 11-14-05-6-00-2-05-4-01-2-00-1-00-1-05-5-03-6-0
Dream 1h8-15-21-3-00-8-02-3-05-1-20-0-00-0-03-4-12-4-0
Dream 13-12-01-3-03-5-03-2-06-2-00-0-00-0-03-5-04-2-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h8-17-03-8-00-2-05-4-00-3-01-0-00-1-03-7-02-7-0
Sun 12-12-14-6-11-1-06-3-01-2-01-0-01-0-05-5-04-4-1
Dream 1h9-15-13-1-03-5-03-2-00-7-10-0-00-0-03-4-11-5-0
Dream 12-12-11-2-14-4-04-1-03-5-00-0-00-0-04-3-13-3-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h8-16-13-8-00-1-15-4-00-3-01-0-00-1-04-5-12-7-0
Sun 12-13-04-7-00-2-07-2-01-2-01-0-00-1-06-4-02-7-0
Dream 1h10-15-02-2-02-6-03-2-03-5-00-0-00-0-03-5-02-4-0
Dream 8-17-01-3-01-7-03-2-03-5-00-0-00-0-03-5-02-4-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sun 1h8-17-01-10-00-2-05-4-02-1-01-0-00-1-04-6-02-7-0
Sun 10-15-03-8-01-1-06-3-00-3-01-0-01-0-03-7-04-5-0
Dream 1h9-15-13-0-13-5-03-2-00-8-00-0-00-0-03-4-12-4-0
Dream 11-14-02-2-03-5-04-1-02-6-00-0-00-0-04-4-02-4-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Dream4-0-0 (100%)4-3-0 (57.1%)1-3-0 (25%)1-2-0 (33.3%)3-4-0 (42.9%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Sun0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-2-0 (33.3%)0-3-0 (0%)5-3-0 (62.5%)3-3-0 (50%)2-3-0 (40%)