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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Mystics (+3.5) a 32.5-40.4% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 157.5 around 51.2-51.6% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Mystics have a 46.1% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 55% chance of going over the total.


Lynx Situational Notes
Baller Systems
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Mystics Situational Notes
Double digit, in season revenge

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Lynx Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
8/21LVAMIN +7
LVA -7
167.5MIN---
8/17WASMIN -3.5
WAS +3.5
157.5MIN---
8/15MIN [ 79 ]MIN -8
WAS +8
156.5WAS [ 68 ]+11+3-9.5
7/17MIN [ 86 ]MIN -7.5
ATL +7.5
150.5ATL [ 79 ]+7-0.5+14.5
7/14MIN [ 74 ]MIN -5
IND +5
164IND [ 81 ]-7-12-9
7/12SEA [ 91 ]MIN +6
SEA -6
154MIN [ 63 ]-28-220
7/9LAS [ 67 ]MIN -4.5
LAS +4.5
158.5MIN [ 82 ]+15+10.5-9.5
7/6MIN [ 74 ]MIN -9
WAS +9
158WAS [ 67 ]+7-2-17
7/4MIN [ 73 ]MIN -3.5
CON +3.5
150.5CON [ 78 ]-5-8.5+0.5
7/2NYL [ 76 ]MIN +6
NYL -6
169MIN [ 67 ]-9-3-26

Mystics Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
8/20WASWAS +6.5
SEA -6.5
161SEA---
8/17WASWAS +3.5
MIN -3.5
157.5MIN---
8/15MIN [ 79 ]WAS +8
MIN -8
156.5WAS [ 68 ]-11-3-9.5
7/16WAS [ 87 ]WAS +4.5
PHO -4.5
167.5PHO [ 96 ]-9-4.5+15.5
7/14WAS [ 77 ]WAS +12
LVA -12
171.5LVA [ 89 ]-120-5.5
7/10IND [ 84 ]WAS +7
IND -7
167.5WAS [ 89 ]+5+12+5.5
7/6MIN [ 74 ]WAS +9
MIN -9
158WAS [ 67 ]-7+2-17
7/4LVA [ 98 ]WAS +15.5
LVA -15.5
172.5WAS [ 77 ]-21-5.5+2.5
7/2LAS [ 80 ]WAS +1.5
LAS -1.5
162.5WAS [ 82 ]+2+3.5-0.5
6/29WAS [ 77 ]WAS +13.5
LVA -13.5
174.5LVA [ 88 ]-11+2.5-9.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/8WASWAS +7.5
MIN -7.5
161MIN--------
8/17WASWAS +3.5
MIN -3.5
157.5MIN--------
8/15MIN [ 79 ]WAS +8
MIN -8
156.5WAS [ 68 ]-11-3-9.5101.780.393.2-13147
7/6MIN [ 74 ]WAS +9
MIN -9
158WAS [ 67 ]-7+2-1789.589.899.2-9.4141
8/29WAS [ 83 ]WAS -7
MIN +7
162MIN [ 72 ]+11+4-788.4112.797.714.9155
7/26MIN [ 97 ]WAS +3.5
MIN -3.5
159WAS [ 92 ]-5-1.5+3098.4112.1118.2-6.1189
6/3WAS [ 78 ]WAS -8
MIN +8
161MIN [ 80 ]-2-10-392.2101.5104.1-2.6158


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Lynx 1h14-10-36-4-22-1-03-2-03-3-11-0-01-0-02-3-05-3-0
Lynx 19-810-22-13-24-31-01-03-24-4
Mystics 1h13-10-30-1-08-3-00-0-05-6-32-0-00-2-05-2-12-3-0
Mystics 6-201-02-90-03-111-11-12-62-3

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Lynx 1h13-13-13-8-12-1-02-3-06-1-01-0-01-0-03-2-03-4-1
Lynx 16-11-06-6-02-1-03-2-05-2-01-0-01-0-03-2-04-4-0
Mystics 1h18-6-20-1-08-2-10-0-010-3-12-0-00-1-16-1-12-2-1
Mystics 16-9-11-0-06-4-10-0-09-5-01-1-02-0-03-4-14-1-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Lynx 1h9-17-12-9-10-3-02-3-05-2-00-1-01-0-03-1-12-6-0
Lynx 10-15-25-7-01-2-01-4-03-2-20-1-01-0-02-1-23-5-0
Mystics 1h11-14-11-0-05-5-10-0-05-9-01-1-01-0-14-4-01-3-1
Mystics 15-11-01-0-06-5-00-0-08-6-01-1-02-0-04-4-02-3-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Lynx 1h12-15-02-10-02-1-03-2-05-2-01-0-01-0-02-3-03-5-0
Lynx 15-12-05-7-02-1-03-2-05-2-01-0-01-0-04-1-02-6-0
Mystics 1h14-10-21-0-08-2-10-0-05-8-12-0-01-0-15-3-01-2-2
Mystics 14-11-11-0-06-5-00-0-07-6-11-1-02-0-03-4-13-2-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Lynx 1h8-18-13-9-00-3-01-4-04-2-10-1-01-0-03-2-02-6-0
Lynx 10-17-05-7-01-2-02-3-02-5-00-1-00-1-03-2-03-5-0
Mystics 1h7-17-21-0-01-8-20-0-05-9-00-2-01-0-12-6-02-2-1
Mystics 12-14-01-0-05-6-00-0-06-8-00-2-02-0-03-5-02-3-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Mystics5-2-1 (71.4%)3-2-0 (60%)6-5-0 (54.5%)2-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Lynx0-0-0 (-)2-0-0 (100%)4-3-0 (57.1%)2-0-0 (100%)4-3-0 (57.1%)4-3-0 (57.1%)0-2-0 (0%)