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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Dream (+7) a 35.7-19.6% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 157 around 50-53% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Dream have a 43% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 47.5% chance of going over the total.


Storm Situational Notes
Baller Systems
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Dream Situational Notes
Double digit, in season revenge

Storm Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
8/18INDSEA -4
IND +4
171SEA---
8/16ATLSEA -7
ATL +7
157SEA---
7/16LAS [ 83 ]SEA -10
LAS +10
162.5SEA [ 89 ]+6-4+9.5
7/14SEA [ 81 ]SEA -14.5
ATL +14.5
155ATL [ 70 ]+11-3.5-4
7/12SEA [ 91 ]SEA -6
MIN +6
154MIN [ 63 ]+28+220
7/10SEA [ 79 ]SEA +4
LVA -4
172.5LVA [ 84 ]-5-1-9.5
7/7SEA [ 84 ]SEA -9.5
CHI +9.5
163CHI [ 71 ]+13+3.5-8
7/5SEA [ 84 ]SEA -10
CHI +10
162CHI [ 88 ]-4-14+10
7/1SEA [ 95 ]SEA -11.5
DAL +11.5
167.5DAL [ 71 ]+24+12.5-1.5
6/29SEA [ 97 ]SEA -10.5
DAL +10.5
167DAL [ 76 ]+21+10.5+6

Dream Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
8/18ATLATL +8
CON -8
154.5CON---
8/16ATLATL +7
SEA -7
157SEA---
7/17MIN [ 86 ]ATL +7.5
MIN -7.5
150.5ATL [ 79 ]-7+0.5+14.5
7/14SEA [ 81 ]ATL +14.5
SEA -14.5
155ATL [ 70 ]-11+3.5-4
7/12ATL [ 70 ]ATL +14.5
LVA -14.5
170LVA [ 84 ]-14+0.5-16
7/10CHI [ 78 ]ATL +7
CHI -7
154.5ATL [ 69 ]-9-2-7.5
7/7CON [ 80 ]ATL +14.5
CON -14.5
150.5ATL [ 67 ]-13+1.5-3.5
7/5DAL [ 85 ]ATL +4.5
DAL -4.5
162.5ATL [ 82 ]-3+1.5+4.5
7/2ATL [ 77 ]ATL +1
CHI -1
159CHI [ 85 ]-8-7+3
6/30NYL [ 81 ]ATL +15.5
NYL -15.5
168ATL [ 75 ]-6+9.5-12

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
8/28SEAATL +9
SEA -9
155.5ATL--------
8/16ATLATL +7
SEA -7
157SEA--------
7/14SEA [ 81 ]ATL +14.5
SEA -14.5
155ATL [ 70 ]-11+3.5-49588.4102.3-13.9151
9/6ATL [ 79 ]ATL -9
SEA +9
163.5SEA [ 68 ]+11+2-16.590.1105.290.514.6147
8/10SEA [ 68 ]ATL -5.5
SEA +5.5
162.5ATL [ 67 ]-1-6.5-27.599.780.681.8-1.2135
7/12ATL [ 85 ]ATL -10
SEA +10
170.5SEA [ 75 ]+100-10.5101.1100.989.111.9160


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Storm 1h19-6-011-2-01-0-05-2-02-2-01-0-00-1-05-0-03-2-0
Storm 17-811-20-15-21-31-00-14-13-2
Dream 1h5-18-11-3-00-7-02-2-12-6-00-0-00-0-01-7-02-3-0
Dream 7-172-21-63-21-70-00-02-61-4

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Storm 1h14-10-18-5-01-0-03-3-12-2-01-0-00-1-04-1-02-3-0
Storm 15-10-09-4-00-1-04-3-02-2-01-0-01-0-04-1-03-2-0
Dream 1h8-14-21-3-00-7-02-3-05-1-20-0-00-0-03-4-12-3-0
Dream 12-12-01-3-02-5-03-2-06-2-00-0-00-0-03-5-03-2-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Storm 1h8-17-06-7-00-1-02-5-00-4-00-1-00-1-01-4-02-3-0
Storm 10-14-15-7-10-1-04-3-01-3-00-1-00-1-02-3-03-1-1
Dream 1h9-14-13-1-03-4-03-2-00-7-10-0-00-0-03-4-11-4-0
Dream 11-12-11-2-13-4-04-1-03-5-00-0-00-0-04-3-12-3-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Storm 1h9-14-26-5-20-1-02-5-01-3-00-1-00-1-02-3-02-3-0
Storm 11-13-16-7-00-1-05-2-00-3-11-0-00-1-01-4-03-1-1
Dream 1h10-14-02-2-02-5-03-2-03-5-00-0-00-0-03-5-02-3-0
Dream 7-17-01-3-00-7-03-2-03-5-00-0-00-0-03-5-01-4-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Storm 1h10-13-26-6-10-1-03-3-11-3-00-1-00-1-02-3-02-3-0
Storm 11-14-04-9-00-1-05-2-02-2-00-1-00-1-01-4-03-2-0
Dream 1h9-14-13-0-13-4-03-2-00-8-00-0-00-0-03-4-12-3-0
Dream 11-13-02-2-03-4-04-1-02-6-00-0-00-0-04-4-02-3-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Dream4-0-0 (100%)3-3-0 (50%)1-3-0 (25%)1-2-0 (33.3%)3-4-0 (42.9%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Storm1-0-0 (100%)1-0-0 (100%)0-2-0 (0%)2-2-0 (50%)5-2-0 (71.4%)3-1-0 (75%)3-3-0 (50%)