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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Lynx (-8) a 63-43% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 156.5 around 50.7-55.3% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Lynx have a 73.1% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 48.8% chance of going over the total.


Mystics Situational Notes
In season revenge

Lynx Situational Notes

Mystics Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
8/17WASWAS +3.5
MIN -3.5
157.5MIN---
8/15MINWAS +8
MIN -8
156.5WAS---
7/16WAS [ 87 ]WAS +4.5
PHO -4.5
167.5PHO [ 96 ]-9-4.5+15.5
7/14WAS [ 77 ]WAS +12
LVA -12
171.5LVA [ 89 ]-120-5.5
7/10IND [ 84 ]WAS +7
IND -7
167.5WAS [ 89 ]+5+12+5.5
7/6MIN [ 74 ]WAS +9
MIN -9
158WAS [ 67 ]-7+2-17
7/4LVA [ 98 ]WAS +15.5
LVA -15.5
172.5WAS [ 77 ]-21-5.5+2.5
7/2LAS [ 80 ]WAS +1.5
LAS -1.5
162.5WAS [ 82 ]+2+3.5-0.5
6/29WAS [ 77 ]WAS +13.5
LVA -13.5
174.5LVA [ 88 ]-11+2.5-9.5
6/27WAS [ 91 ]WAS +10.5
CON -10.5
152CON [ 94 ]-3+7.5+33

Lynx Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
8/17WASMIN -3.5
WAS +3.5
157.5MIN---
8/15MINMIN -8
WAS +8
156.5WAS---
7/17MIN [ 86 ]MIN -7.5
ATL +7.5
150.5ATL [ 79 ]+7-0.5+14.5
7/14MIN [ 74 ]MIN -5
IND +5
164IND [ 81 ]-7-12-9
7/12SEA [ 91 ]MIN +6
SEA -6
154MIN [ 63 ]-28-220
7/9LAS [ 67 ]MIN -4.5
LAS +4.5
158.5MIN [ 82 ]+15+10.5-9.5
7/6MIN [ 74 ]MIN -9
WAS +9
158WAS [ 67 ]+7-2-17
7/4MIN [ 73 ]MIN -3.5
CON +3.5
150.5CON [ 78 ]-5-8.5+0.5
7/2NYL [ 76 ]MIN +6
NYL -6
169MIN [ 67 ]-9-3-26
6/30CHI [ 62 ]MIN -7
CHI +7
163.5MIN [ 70 ]+8+1-31.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/8WASMIN -7.5
WAS +7.5
161MIN--------
8/17WASMIN -3.5
WAS +3.5
157.5MIN--------
8/15MINMIN -8
WAS +8
156.5WAS--------
7/6MIN [ 74 ]MIN -9
WAS +9
158WAS [ 67 ]+7-2-1789.599.289.89.4141
8/29WAS [ 83 ]MIN +7
WAS -7
162MIN [ 72 ]-11-4-788.497.7112.7-14.9155
7/26MIN [ 97 ]MIN -3.5
WAS +3.5
159WAS [ 92 ]+5+1.5+3098.4118.2112.16.1189
6/3WAS [ 78 ]MIN +8
WAS -8
161MIN [ 80 ]+2+10-392.2104.1101.52.6158


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mystics 1h12-10-30-1-08-3-00-0-04-6-32-0-00-2-04-2-12-3-0
Mystics 6-191-02-90-03-101-11-12-52-3
Lynx 1h14-9-36-3-22-1-03-2-03-3-11-0-01-0-02-3-05-2-0
Lynx 18-89-22-13-24-31-01-03-23-4

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mystics 1h17-6-20-1-08-2-10-0-09-3-12-0-00-1-15-1-12-2-1
Mystics 16-8-11-0-06-4-10-0-09-4-01-1-02-0-03-3-14-1-0
Lynx 1h13-12-13-7-12-1-02-3-06-1-01-0-01-0-03-2-03-3-1
Lynx 15-11-05-6-02-1-03-2-05-2-01-0-01-0-03-2-03-4-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mystics 1h11-13-11-0-05-5-10-0-05-8-01-1-01-0-14-3-01-3-1
Mystics 15-10-01-0-06-5-00-0-08-5-01-1-02-0-04-3-02-3-0
Lynx 1h9-16-12-8-10-3-02-3-05-2-00-1-01-0-03-1-12-5-0
Lynx 10-14-25-6-01-2-01-4-03-2-20-1-01-0-02-1-23-4-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mystics 1h14-9-21-0-08-2-10-0-05-7-12-0-01-0-15-2-01-2-2
Mystics 14-10-11-0-06-5-00-0-07-5-11-1-02-0-03-3-13-2-0
Lynx 1h12-14-02-9-02-1-03-2-05-2-01-0-01-0-02-3-03-4-0
Lynx 15-11-05-6-02-1-03-2-05-2-01-0-01-0-04-1-02-5-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mystics 1h7-16-21-0-01-8-20-0-05-8-00-2-01-0-12-5-02-2-1
Mystics 12-13-01-0-05-6-00-0-06-7-00-2-02-0-03-4-02-3-0
Lynx 1h8-17-13-8-00-3-01-4-04-2-10-1-01-0-03-2-02-5-0
Lynx 10-16-05-6-01-2-02-3-02-5-00-1-00-1-03-2-03-4-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Lynx0-0-0 (-)2-0-0 (100%)4-3-0 (57.1%)2-0-0 (100%)4-3-0 (57.1%)3-3-0 (50%)0-2-0 (0%)
Mystics5-2-1 (71.4%)3-1-0 (75%)6-5-0 (54.5%)2-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)