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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Lynx (-7.5) a 67.9-49.3% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 150.5 around 49.8-47.8% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Lynx have a 66.6% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 47.7% chance of going over the total.


Dream Situational Notes
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
Double digit, in season revenge

Lynx Situational Notes
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
Coming off a loss as a favorite (bounce back)

Dream Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
8/16ATLATL +7
SEA -7
157SEA---
7/17MINATL +7.5
MIN -7.5
150.5ATL---
7/14SEA [ 81 ]ATL +14.5
SEA -14.5
155ATL [ 70 ]-11+3.5-4
7/12ATL [ 70 ]ATL +14.5
LVA -14.5
170LVA [ 84 ]-14+0.5-16
7/10CHI [ 78 ]ATL +7
CHI -7
154.5ATL [ 69 ]-9-2-7.5
7/7CON [ 80 ]ATL +14.5
CON -14.5
150.5ATL [ 67 ]-13+1.5-3.5
7/5DAL [ 85 ]ATL +4.5
DAL -4.5
162.5ATL [ 82 ]-3+1.5+4.5
7/2ATL [ 77 ]ATL +1
CHI -1
159CHI [ 85 ]-8-7+3
6/30NYL [ 81 ]ATL +15.5
NYL -15.5
168ATL [ 75 ]-6+9.5-12
6/28CON [ 74 ]ATL +9.5
CON -9.5
150ATL [ 78 ]+4+13.5+2

Lynx Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
8/15MINMIN -8
WAS +8
156.5WAS---
7/17MINMIN -7.5
ATL +7.5
150.5ATL---
7/14MIN [ 74 ]MIN -5
IND +5
164IND [ 81 ]-7-12-9
7/12SEA [ 91 ]MIN +6
SEA -6
154MIN [ 63 ]-28-220
7/9LAS [ 67 ]MIN -4.5
LAS +4.5
158.5MIN [ 82 ]+15+10.5-9.5
7/6MIN [ 74 ]MIN -9
WAS +9
158WAS [ 67 ]+7-2-17
7/4MIN [ 73 ]MIN -3.5
CON +3.5
150.5CON [ 78 ]-5-8.5+0.5
7/2NYL [ 76 ]MIN +6
NYL -6
169MIN [ 67 ]-9-3-26
6/30CHI [ 62 ]MIN -7
CHI +7
163.5MIN [ 70 ]+8+1-31.5
6/27DAL [ 94 ]MIN -9
DAL +9
164MIN [ 88 ]-6-15+18

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/10ATLMIN -5.5
ATL +5.5
155MIN--------
7/17MINMIN -7.5
ATL +7.5
150.5ATL--------
6/19MIN [ 68 ]MIN -9.5
ATL +9.5
162.5ATL [ 55 ]+13+3.5-39.590.390.473.117.3123
5/26ATL [ 79 ]MIN +4.5
ATL -4.5
167.5MIN [ 92 ]+13+17.5+3.588.6124.610717.6171
9/1MIN [ 91 ]MIN -2
ATL +2
163.5ATL [ 85 ]+6+4+12.596.1102.996.26.8159.4
7/18ATL [ 82 ]MIN +6
ATL -6
170MIN [ 73 ]-9-3-1595.591.7103-11.3155
5/23MIN [ 77 ]MIN -2
ATL +2
161.5ATL [ 83 ]-6-8-1.592.3100.1107.9-7.8160


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Dream 1h4-18-11-3-00-7-02-2-11-6-00-0-00-0-01-7-02-3-0
Dream 7-162-21-63-21-60-00-02-61-4
Lynx 1h14-8-36-2-22-1-03-2-03-3-11-0-01-0-02-3-05-2-0
Lynx 17-88-22-13-24-31-01-03-23-4

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Dream 1h7-14-21-3-00-7-02-3-04-1-20-0-00-0-03-4-12-3-0
Dream 11-12-01-3-02-5-03-2-05-2-00-0-00-0-03-5-03-2-0
Lynx 1h13-11-13-6-12-1-02-3-06-1-01-0-01-0-03-2-03-3-1
Lynx 15-10-05-5-02-1-03-2-05-2-01-0-01-0-03-2-03-4-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Dream 1h9-13-13-1-03-4-03-2-00-6-10-0-00-0-03-4-11-4-0
Dream 10-12-11-2-13-4-04-1-02-5-00-0-00-0-04-3-12-3-0
Lynx 1h9-15-12-7-10-3-02-3-05-2-00-1-01-0-03-1-12-5-0
Lynx 9-14-24-6-01-2-01-4-03-2-20-1-01-0-02-1-23-4-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Dream 1h10-13-02-2-02-5-03-2-03-4-00-0-00-0-03-5-02-3-0
Dream 6-17-01-3-00-7-03-2-02-5-00-0-00-0-03-5-01-4-0
Lynx 1h12-13-02-8-02-1-03-2-05-2-01-0-01-0-02-3-03-4-0
Lynx 14-11-04-6-02-1-03-2-05-2-01-0-01-0-04-1-02-5-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Dream 1h9-13-13-0-13-4-03-2-00-7-00-0-00-0-03-4-12-3-0
Dream 10-13-02-2-03-4-04-1-01-6-00-0-00-0-04-4-02-3-0
Lynx 1h8-16-13-7-00-3-01-4-04-2-10-1-01-0-03-2-02-5-0
Lynx 9-16-04-6-01-2-02-3-02-5-00-1-00-1-03-2-03-4-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Lynx0-0-0 (-)2-0-0 (100%)4-3-0 (57.1%)2-0-0 (100%)4-3-0 (57.1%)3-2-0 (60%)0-2-0 (0%)
Dream4-0-0 (100%)2-3-0 (40%)1-3-0 (25%)1-2-0 (33.3%)3-4-0 (42.9%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)