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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Mystics (+4.5) a 59-54.4% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 167.5 around 51.3-59.7% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Mystics have a 78.6% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 46.1% chance of going over the total.


Mercury Situational Notes

Mystics Situational Notes
In season revenge

Mercury Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
8/15CHIPHO -5.5
CHI +5.5
162PHO---
7/16WASPHO -4.5
WAS +4.5
167.5PHO---
7/14CON [ 96 ]PHO +7.5
CON -7.5
158.5PHO [ 69 ]-27-19.5+6.5
7/12IND [ 95 ]PHO +1.5
IND -1.5
172.5PHO [ 86 ]-9-7.5+8.5
7/10PHO [ 100 ]PHO -7.5
DAL +7.5
173DAL [ 84 ]+16+8.5+11
7/7LAS [ 78 ]PHO -4
LAS +4
167.5PHO [ 84 ]+6+2-5.5
7/3DAL [ 96 ]PHO -5
DAL +5
171.5PHO [ 104 ]+8+3+28.5
7/1PHO [ 72 ]PHO +3
CON -3
157.5CON [ 83 ]-11-8-2.5
6/30PHO [ 82 ]PHO -8
IND +8
175IND [ 88 ]-6-14-5
6/28PHO [ 92 ]PHO -10
LAS +10
168.5LAS [ 78 ]+14+4+1.5

Mystics Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
8/15MINWAS +8
MIN -8
156.5WAS---
7/16WASWAS +4.5
PHO -4.5
167.5PHO---
7/14WAS [ 77 ]WAS +12
LVA -12
171.5LVA [ 89 ]-120-5.5
7/10IND [ 84 ]WAS +7
IND -7
167.5WAS [ 89 ]+5+12+5.5
7/6MIN [ 74 ]WAS +9
MIN -9
158WAS [ 67 ]-7+2-17
7/4LVA [ 98 ]WAS +15.5
LVA -15.5
172.5WAS [ 77 ]-21-5.5+2.5
7/2LAS [ 80 ]WAS +1.5
LAS -1.5
162.5WAS [ 82 ]+2+3.5-0.5
6/29WAS [ 77 ]WAS +13.5
LVA -13.5
174.5LVA [ 88 ]-11+2.5-9.5
6/27WAS [ 91 ]WAS +10.5
CON -10.5
152CON [ 94 ]-3+7.5+33
6/23WAS [ 92 ]WAS -1
DAL +1
163DAL [ 84 ]+8+7+13

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/5PHOWAS +5.5
PHO -5.5
165.5WAS--------
7/16WASWAS +4.5
PHO -4.5
167.5PHO--------
5/23PHO [ 83 ]WAS +6
PHO -6
161.5WAS [ 80 ]-3+3+1.598.297.7101.4-3.7163
9/5PHO [ 77 ]WAS -7
PHO +7
153.5WAS [ 100 ]+23+16+23.592.2130.2100.229.9177
8/8PHO [ 91 ]WAS +3
PHO -3
159.5WAS [ 72 ]-19-16+3.591.394.7119.7-25163
7/23WAS [ 84 ]WAS -3
PHO +3
156PHO [ 69 ]+15+12-395.8105.386.518.8153
6/16WAS [ 88 ]WAS -11
PHO +11
155.5PHO [ 69 ]+19+8+1.593.1113.488.924.5157


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h11-13-04-2-04-2-03-0-00-9-01-1-00-2-03-2-03-5-0
Mercury 12-124-24-23-01-80-20-23-22-6
Mystics 1h11-10-30-1-07-3-00-0-04-6-32-0-00-2-04-2-12-3-0
Mystics 6-181-02-80-03-101-11-12-52-3

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h13-11-02-4-05-1-03-0-03-6-01-1-01-1-04-1-04-4-0
Mercury 14-10-03-3-05-1-03-0-03-6-00-2-01-1-04-1-03-5-0
Mystics 1h16-6-20-1-07-2-10-0-09-3-12-0-00-1-15-1-12-2-1
Mystics 16-7-11-0-06-3-10-0-09-4-01-1-02-0-03-3-14-1-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h11-13-03-3-02-4-01-2-05-4-00-2-01-1-01-4-04-4-0
Mercury 13-11-04-2-03-3-02-1-04-5-00-2-00-2-02-3-03-5-0
Mystics 1h10-13-11-0-04-5-10-0-05-8-01-1-01-0-14-3-01-3-1
Mystics 14-10-01-0-05-5-00-0-08-5-01-1-02-0-04-3-02-3-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h11-13-02-4-04-2-01-2-04-5-01-1-01-1-02-3-04-4-0
Mercury 14-10-04-2-05-1-02-1-03-6-00-2-00-2-03-2-03-5-0
Mystics 1h13-9-21-0-07-2-10-0-05-7-12-0-01-0-15-2-01-2-2
Mystics 13-10-11-0-05-5-00-0-07-5-11-1-02-0-03-3-13-2-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h11-13-03-3-03-3-01-2-04-5-00-2-01-1-01-4-05-3-0
Mercury 12-12-04-2-03-3-02-1-03-6-01-1-01-1-01-4-05-3-0
Mystics 1h7-16-11-0-01-8-10-0-05-8-00-2-01-0-12-5-02-2-1
Mystics 11-13-01-0-04-6-00-0-06-7-00-2-02-0-03-4-02-3-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Mystics5-2-1 (71.4%)3-1-0 (75%)6-4-0 (60%)2-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Mercury3-0-0 (100%)0-2-0 (0%)4-4-0 (50%)2-1-0 (66.7%)3-2-0 (60%)1-1-0 (50%)1-0-0 (100%)