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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Sun (-7.5) a 59.8-35.1% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 158.5 around 51.5-56.6% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Sun have a 74.8% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 44% chance of going over the total.


Mercury Situational Notes
Double digit, in season revenge
Rest disadvantage

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Sun Situational Notes
Well rested (two or more days of rest)
Rest advantage

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Mercury Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
7/16WASPHO -4.5
WAS +4.5
167.5PHO---
7/14CONPHO +7.5
CON -7.5
158.5PHO---
7/12IND [ 95 ]PHO +1.5
IND -1.5
172.5PHO [ 86 ]-9-7.5+8.5
7/10PHO [ 100 ]PHO -7.5
DAL +7.5
173DAL [ 84 ]+16+8.5+11
7/7LAS [ 78 ]PHO -4
LAS +4
167.5PHO [ 84 ]+6+2-5.5
7/3DAL [ 96 ]PHO -5
DAL +5
171.5PHO [ 104 ]+8+3+28.5
7/1PHO [ 72 ]PHO +3
CON -3
157.5CON [ 83 ]-11-8-2.5
6/30PHO [ 82 ]PHO -8
IND +8
175IND [ 88 ]-6-14-5
6/28PHO [ 92 ]PHO -10
LAS +10
168.5LAS [ 78 ]+14+4+1.5
6/22MIN [ 73 ]PHO +6
MIN -6
167.5PHO [ 60 ]-13-7-34.5

Sun Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
7/16NYLCON -2
NYL +2
152.5CON---
7/14CONCON -7.5
PHO +7.5
158.5PHO---
7/10CON [ 68 ]CON +2.5
NYL -2.5
159NYL [ 71 ]-3-0.5-20
7/7CON [ 80 ]CON -14.5
ATL +14.5
150.5ATL [ 67 ]+13-1.5-3.5
7/4MIN [ 73 ]CON +3.5
MIN -3.5
150.5CON [ 78 ]+5+8.5+0.5
7/1PHO [ 72 ]CON -3
PHO +3
157.5CON [ 83 ]+11+8-2.5
6/28CON [ 74 ]CON -9.5
ATL +9.5
150ATL [ 78 ]-4-13.5+2
6/27WAS [ 91 ]CON -10.5
WAS +10.5
152CON [ 94 ]+3-7.5+33
6/23SEA [ 72 ]CON +1
SEA -1
154CON [ 61 ]-11-10-21
6/21LVA [ 85 ]CON +5
LVA -5
165.5CON [ 74 ]-11-6-6.5

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
9/13PHOCON -9.5
PHO +9.5
155.5CON--------
7/14CONCON -7.5
PHO +7.5
158.5PHO--------
7/1PHO [ 72 ]CON -3
PHO +3
157.5CON [ 83 ]+11+8-2.581.3122.5106.316.2155
5/28CON [ 70 ]CON -8
PHO +8
168PHO [ 47 ]+23+15-5193.190.260.629.6117
8/31CON [ 84 ]CON -15
PHO +15
154.5PHO [ 74 ]+10-5+3.582.5122.1107.614.5158
8/10PHO [ 90 ]CON -8
PHO +8
159.5CON [ 84 ]-6-14+14.597.3103.6111-7.4174
7/18PHO [ 72 ]CON -7.5
PHO +7.5
162.5CON [ 66 ]-6-13.5-24.586.991.199.4-8.3138


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h11-12-04-2-04-2-03-0-00-8-01-1-00-2-03-2-03-4-0
Mercury 12-114-24-23-01-70-20-23-22-5
Sun 1h12-8-28-1-10-1-14-3-00-3-00-1-01-0-04-3-15-3-0
Sun 17-59-10-27-01-21-00-16-25-3

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h13-10-02-4-05-1-03-0-03-5-01-1-01-1-04-1-04-3-0
Mercury 14-9-03-3-05-1-03-0-03-5-00-2-01-1-04-1-03-4-0
Sun 1h11-11-06-4-02-0-03-4-00-3-00-1-00-1-05-3-03-5-0
Sun 9-13-04-6-00-2-04-3-01-2-00-1-00-1-03-5-03-5-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h10-13-03-3-02-4-01-2-04-4-00-2-01-1-01-4-03-4-0
Mercury 12-11-04-2-03-3-02-1-03-5-00-2-00-2-02-3-02-5-0
Sun 1h5-17-02-8-00-2-03-4-00-3-01-0-00-1-01-7-01-7-0
Sun 9-12-13-6-11-1-04-3-01-2-01-0-01-0-03-5-03-4-1

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h10-13-02-4-04-2-01-2-03-5-01-1-01-1-02-3-03-4-0
Mercury 14-9-04-2-05-1-02-1-03-5-00-2-00-2-03-2-03-4-0
Sun 1h5-16-12-8-00-1-13-4-00-3-01-0-00-1-02-5-11-7-0
Sun 10-12-03-7-00-2-06-1-01-2-01-0-00-1-04-4-02-6-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Mercury 1h10-13-03-3-03-3-01-2-03-5-00-2-01-1-01-4-04-3-0
Mercury 11-12-04-2-03-3-02-1-02-6-01-1-01-1-01-4-04-3-0
Sun 1h6-16-00-10-00-2-04-3-02-1-01-0-00-1-03-5-01-7-0
Sun 8-14-03-7-01-1-04-3-00-3-01-0-01-0-02-6-03-5-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Sun0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-2-0 (33.3%)0-2-0 (0%)4-3-0 (57.1%)2-3-0 (40%)2-3-0 (40%)
Mercury3-0-0 (100%)0-1-0 (0%)4-4-0 (50%)2-1-0 (66.7%)3-2-0 (60%)1-1-0 (50%)1-0-0 (100%)