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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Liberty (-9.5) a 56.7-50% chance of covering as a favorite, and projects the game going over 165.5 around 49.3-52.5% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Liberty have a 53.4% chance of covering as a favorite at home, and the game has a 51.9% chance of going over the total.


Sky Situational Notes
Double digit, in season revenge

Baller Systems
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Liberty Situational Notes
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Sky Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
7/13CHICHI +3.5
NYL -3.5
164NYL---
7/11NYLCHI +9.5
NYL -9.5
165.5CHI---
7/10CHI [ 78 ]CHI -7
ATL +7
154.5ATL [ 69 ]+9+2-7.5
7/7SEA [ 84 ]CHI +9.5
SEA -9.5
163CHI [ 71 ]-13-3.5-8
7/5SEA [ 84 ]CHI +10
SEA -10
162CHI [ 88 ]+4+14+10
7/2ATL [ 77 ]CHI -1
ATL +1
159CHI [ 85 ]+8+7+3
6/30CHI [ 62 ]CHI +7
MIN -7
163.5MIN [ 70 ]-8-1-31.5
6/27CHI [ 83 ]CHI +10.5
LVA -10.5
173LVA [ 95 ]-12-1.5+5
6/23CHI [ 88 ]CHI -2
IND +2
169.5IND [ 87 ]+1-1+5.5
6/20CHI [ 83 ]CHI -6
DAL +6
163DAL [ 72 ]+11+5-8

Liberty Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
7/13CHINYL -3.5
CHI +3.5
164NYL---
7/11NYLNYL -9.5
CHI +9.5
165.5CHI---
7/10CON [ 68 ]NYL -2.5
CON +2.5
159NYL [ 71 ]+3+0.5-20
7/6IND [ 83 ]NYL -10.5
IND +10.5
174.5NYL [ 78 ]-5-15.5-13.5
7/2NYL [ 76 ]NYL -6
MIN +6
169MIN [ 67 ]+9+3-26
6/30NYL [ 81 ]NYL -15.5
ATL +15.5
168ATL [ 75 ]+6-9.5-12
6/25NYL [ 89 ]NYL -6
MIN +6
164.5MIN [ 94 ]-5-11+18.5
6/23ATL [ 75 ]NYL -9
ATL +9
165.5NYL [ 96 ]+21+12+5.5
6/22NYL [ 98 ]NYL -14.5
LAS +14.5
169LAS [ 88 ]+10-4.5+17
6/20NYL [ 93 ]NYL -14
LAS +14
167LAS [ 80 ]+13-1+6

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
7/13CHINYL -3.5
CHI +3.5
164NYL--------
7/11NYLNYL -9.5
CHI +9.5
165.5CHI--------
6/4CHI [ 75 ]NYL -8
CHI +8
165.5NYL [ 88 ]+13+5-2.597108.992.816.1163
5/23NYL [ 81 ]NYL -15.5
CHI +15.5
165CHI [ 90 ]-9-24.5+696.6100.6111.8-11.2171
9/3CHI [ 69 ]NYL -8
CHI +8
164.5NYL [ 86 ]+17+9-9.595.7107.886.521.3155
8/11NYL [ 89 ]NYL -12.5
CHI +12.5
170CHI [ 73 ]+16+3.5-896.8110.390.519.8162
6/4NYL [ 82 ]NYL -11.5
CHI +11.5
157.5CHI [ 86 ]-4-15.5+10.5102.496.1100.8-4.7168
6/2CHI [ 76 ]NYL -10
CHI +10
158.5NYL [ 77 ]+1-9-5.590.8101.8100.41.3153


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sky 1h9-12-03-1-02-5-01-3-03-3-01-0-00-0-02-3-00-4-0
Sky 9-124-00-72-23-31-00-03-21-3
Liberty 1h14-6-38-2-20-0-05-4-11-0-02-0-11-0-15-2-04-1-2
Liberty 18-510-20-07-31-03-02-06-15-2

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sky 1h11-8-22-1-14-2-11-3-04-2-00-0-10-0-04-1-01-3-0
Sky 9-11-13-1-01-6-02-2-03-2-11-0-00-0-02-3-01-3-0
Liberty 1h8-15-04-8-00-0-03-7-01-0-01-2-01-1-03-4-02-5-0
Liberty 9-14-02-10-00-0-06-4-01-0-02-1-01-1-03-4-04-3-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sky 1h8-13-01-3-03-4-02-2-02-4-00-1-00-0-02-3-02-2-0
Sky 11-10-01-3-04-3-02-2-04-2-00-1-00-0-03-2-04-0-0
Liberty 1h10-13-07-5-00-0-03-7-00-1-01-2-02-0-03-4-04-3-0
Liberty 12-11-08-4-00-0-04-6-00-1-02-1-02-0-02-5-05-2-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sky 1h10-10-12-2-03-4-01-3-04-1-10-1-00-0-04-1-02-2-0
Sky 12-9-02-2-04-3-02-2-04-2-00-1-00-0-03-2-03-1-0
Liberty 1h11-12-06-6-00-0-04-6-01-0-01-2-02-0-03-4-04-3-0
Liberty 12-11-06-6-00-0-05-5-01-0-02-1-02-0-03-4-05-2-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Sky 1h7-14-01-3-02-5-03-1-01-5-00-1-00-0-02-3-02-2-0
Sky 9-12-01-3-05-2-01-3-02-4-00-1-00-0-03-2-03-1-0
Liberty 1h12-10-18-4-00-0-04-5-10-1-01-1-11-1-03-4-04-2-1
Liberty 11-12-07-5-00-0-04-6-00-1-01-2-01-1-01-6-03-4-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Liberty0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)1-0-0 (100%)1-0-0 (100%)3-3-0 (50%)3-0-0 (100%)1-11-0 (8.3%)
Sky2-1-0 (66.7%)0-4-1 (0%)2-1-0 (66.7%)1-4-0 (20%)3-1-0 (75%)1-0-0 (100%)0-0-0 (-)