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Our Baller Exclusive WNBA base model is a blend of several regressions, weighted to different cross-sections of the season. These regressions take into consideration stats like offensive rating, defensive rating, pace, and a variety of other factors that we feel are important in making up a team's numeric profile. While it does not factor in situations, historic matchups, and schedule into account, it is a good place to start when thinking ahout a particular matchup.

Our base model gives the Dream (+14.5) a 60.5-37.1% chance of covering as an underdog, and projects the game going over 170 around 48.9-48.8% of the time, depending on how much you weight season-long vs. recent data, respectively. Looking at how the teams perform at home / on the road, the Dream have a 50.6% chance of covering as an underdog at home, and the game has a 50.3% chance of going over the total.


Aces Situational Notes
In season revenge

Baller Systems
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Dream Situational Notes
1st game home off long road trip (at least three games)

Aces Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
7/14WASLVA -12
WAS +12
171.5LVA---
7/12ATLLVA -14.5
ATL +14.5
170LVA---
7/10SEA [ 79 ]LVA -4
SEA +4
172.5LVA [ 84 ]+5+1-9.5
7/7LVA [ 104 ]LVA -16
DAL +16
180DAL [ 85 ]+19+3+9
7/5LAS [ 98 ]LVA -13
LAS +13
173.5LVA [ 93 ]-5-18+17.5
7/4LVA [ 98 ]LVA -15.5
WAS +15.5
172.5WAS [ 77 ]+21+5.5+2.5
7/2LVA [ 88 ]LVA -13.5
IND +13.5
179IND [ 69 ]+19+5.5-22
6/29WAS [ 77 ]LVA -13.5
WAS +13.5
174.5LVA [ 88 ]+11-2.5-9.5
6/27CHI [ 83 ]LVA -10.5
CHI +10.5
173LVA [ 95 ]+12+1.5+5
6/21LVA [ 85 ]LVA -5
CON +5
165.5CON [ 74 ]+11+6-6.5

Dream Schedule

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin
7/14SEAATL +14.5
SEA -14.5
155ATL---
7/12ATLATL +14.5
LVA -14.5
170LVA---
7/10CHI [ 78 ]ATL +7
CHI -7
154.5ATL [ 69 ]-9-2-7.5
7/7CON [ 80 ]ATL +14.5
CON -14.5
150.5ATL [ 67 ]-13+1.5-3.5
7/5DAL [ 85 ]ATL +4.5
DAL -4.5
162.5ATL [ 82 ]-3+1.5+4.5
7/2ATL [ 77 ]ATL +1
CHI -1
159CHI [ 85 ]-8-7+3
6/30NYL [ 81 ]ATL +15.5
NYL -15.5
168ATL [ 75 ]-6+9.5-12
6/28CON [ 74 ]ATL +9.5
CON -9.5
150ATL [ 78 ]+4+13.5+2
6/23ATL [ 75 ]ATL +9
NYL -9
165.5NYL [ 96 ]-21-12+5.5
6/21ATL [ 79 ]ATL +3
IND -3
163IND [ 91 ]-12-9+7

Historical Matchups

Home Line Total Away SU Margin ATS Margin OU Margin Pace Ortg Drtg Net Tot
8/30LVAATL +10.5
LVA -10.5
166ATL--------
7/12ATLATL +14.5
LVA -14.5
170LVA--------
5/31ATL [ 78 ]ATL +8.5
LVA -8.5
172LVA [ 74 ]+4+12.5-2098.59590.14.9152
8/22ATL [ 100 ]ATL +16
LVA -16
166.5LVA [ 112 ]-12+4+45.5102.7116.8130.9-14212
8/13LVA [ 86 ]ATL +16.5
LVA -16.5
175ATL [ 65 ]-21-4.5-2498.978.9104.3-25.5151
8/1LVA [ 93 ]ATL +13.5
LVA -13.5
178ATL [ 72 ]-21-7.5-1397.488.7114.5-25.9165
6/2ATL [ 87 ]ATL +11.5
LVA -11.5
172.5LVA [ 92 ]-5+6.5+6.5102.2102.2108-5.9179


Straight Up Records (SU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Aces 1h15-6-09-3-00-0-06-3-00-0-01-0-00-1-07-0-02-3-0
Aces 14-78-40-06-30-01-00-17-02-3
Dream 1h4-16-11-3-00-6-02-2-11-5-00-0-00-0-01-7-02-3-0
Dream 7-142-21-53-21-50-00-02-61-4

Against the Spread Records (ATS)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Aces 1h8-13-04-8-00-0-04-5-00-0-01-0-00-1-05-2-01-4-0
Aces 10-11-06-6-00-0-04-5-00-0-01-0-00-1-06-1-01-4-0
Dream 1h6-13-21-3-00-6-02-3-03-1-20-0-00-0-03-4-12-3-0
Dream 9-12-01-3-01-5-03-2-04-2-00-0-00-0-03-5-03-2-0

Over/Under Records (OU)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Aces 1h7-14-03-9-00-0-04-5-00-0-00-1-00-1-01-6-01-4-0
Aces 12-9-07-5-00-0-05-4-00-0-01-0-01-0-05-2-02-3-0
Dream 1h9-11-13-1-03-3-03-2-00-5-10-0-00-0-03-4-11-4-0
Dream 10-10-11-2-13-3-04-1-02-4-00-0-00-0-04-3-12-3-0

Team Total Records (TT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Aces 1h6-15-04-8-00-0-02-7-00-0-00-1-00-1-02-5-02-3-0
Aces 8-13-04-8-00-0-04-5-00-0-01-0-00-1-04-3-01-4-0
Dream 1h9-12-02-2-02-4-03-2-02-4-00-0-00-0-03-5-02-3-0
Dream 6-15-01-3-00-6-03-2-02-4-00-0-00-0-03-5-01-4-0

Opponent Team Total Records (OTT)

TeamOverallHFHDAFADB2B (1st)B2B (2nd)+Rest-Rest
Aces 1h10-11-05-7-00-0-05-4-00-0-00-1-01-0-01-6-03-2-0
Aces 12-8-17-4-10-0-05-4-00-0-00-1-01-0-04-2-13-2-0
Dream 1h9-11-13-0-13-3-03-2-00-6-00-0-00-0-03-4-12-3-0
Dream 10-11-02-2-03-3-04-1-01-5-00-0-00-0-04-4-02-3-0


ATS Range Records

TeamDog 10+Dog 7-10Dog 2.5-7Within 2.5Fav 2.5-7Fav 7-10Fav 10+
Dream2-0-0 (100%)2-3-0 (40%)1-3-0 (25%)1-2-0 (33.3%)3-4-0 (42.9%)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)
Aces0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)0-0-0 (-)4-2-0 (66.7%)1-3-0 (25%)5-6-0 (45.5%)